186
SUMMARY
A Study of Changes in Demand and User’s Behaviors of Commercial Properties in the Era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution
I Taly, Jo Jeonghee, Chang Yohan, Choi Jindo, You Seongdong, Joo Seongmin
Key words: Era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, Commercial Properties, Demand, User’s Behaviors, Market Prospect
The purpose of this study is to analyze changes in the demand and usage behavior of commercial real estate in urban areas brought by the development of information & communication science and technology in the era of the 4th industrial revolution, and to suggest relevant policy directions by forecasting changes in the space and location of commercial real estate expected in the future.
In order to achieve the purpose of the study, Chapter 2 examined the developments up to the 4th industrial revolution in connection with the characteristics of urban spaces, and selected increased mixed use and use conversion, changes in the form of space use, the use of space due to changes in offline retailing, and the deepening of the space gap as major issues in changing urban spaces following the 4th industrial revolution. Subsequent review of the trend and theory of related prior research and the status of the commercial real estate market confirmed that the overall inventory, supply and
SUMMARY ․ 187 trading volume of commercial real estate was gradually increasing, but it was concentrated in the metropolitan area including Seoul.
The following Chapter 3 identified proptech, artificial intelligence, block chain, and big data as key words characterizing the changes in the demand and usage behavior of commercial real estate in the era of the 4th industrial revolution by using word cloud techniques, and then drew trends from the changes in the demand and usage behavior of commercial real estate in the era of the 4th industrial revolution at home and abroad. Trends in the changes of the demand and usage behavior of commercial real estate in Korea were changes in the consumption mode, the rapid growth of the online market, sharing economy and sharing office of efficient spatial composition, complex shopping malls and malling culture, the scale-up of suburban complex shopping malls and the scale-down of life-friendly shops in downtown area, the expansion & scale-up and the proximity & scale-down of logistics centers, the development of ICT technologies and the emergence of commercial real estate information platforms. Meanwhile, overseas trends in the changes of the demand and usage behavior of commercial real estate were flexible office space, circular economy and green building, evolving medical services, commercial real estate investment using crowdfunding, 3D platform, and the expansion of commercial real estate information platform.
Next, Chapter 4 prospected the future space and location following changes in the demand and usage behavior of representative commercial real estate, such as office real estate, small shopping malls, large shopping malls, real estate including shopping malls, logistics real estate, and data centers that have recently attracted more interest. As offices become more flexible and differentiated, it is expected that existing downtown commercial office districts will be maintained as gentrified and differentiated, and flexible spaces such as
188
smart work centers will be scattered in and around the city. On the other hand, it is expected that small life-friendly shops will be densely scattered in the downtown area and within the city with convenience as a merit, while large discount stores and department stores will form a town within the city, and large complex shopping malls will be located on the outskirts of the city. As for logistics centers, it is expected that large hub logistics centers will be located in the suburbs of the city while small urban logistics center will be located in the city center. Medium and large data centers will be located in the suburbs of the metropolitan city while small and medium data centers will be located on the outskirts of the city. Further, the conclusion obtained through machine learning prospected that both stores and offices would see a decrease in overall transactions due to low growth, low interest rates, population decline and the aftermath of COVID 19 regardless of differences across regions and over time.
Based on the changes in the demand and usage behavior of commercial real estate discussed herein, and the examination and prospect of subsequent changes in space and location, I would like to propose policy directions in various aspects. In terms of supply policy, commercial real estate should be placed, supplied and managed at an appropriate ratio within the city. In order to derive an appropriate ratio, the inventory, supply and demand of commercial real estate should be calculated and forecast accurately, and for accurate calculation and prospect, it should be prioritized to accumulate sufficient data and develop specialized forecasting models. In terms of management policy, it is needed to collect, produce and announce highly reliable data related to commercial real estate, and ongoing monitoring of the market is required by selecting an agency to establish and operate an information system that can continuously manage it. In terms of urban planning, it is necessary to adjust the ratio of commercial land and redistribute its use when establishing a master urban plan.
