1 Report for

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Daily Report for Tuesday, May 9, 2017

1 Report for

Tuesday, May 09, 2017

Ordibehesht 19, 1396

* Highlights, Page 2

* News Briefs, Page 3

* Populism is defeated. Page 3

* Populist promises. Page 4

* IRGC reacts to remarks about missile program. Page 4

* Why did Jahangiri seesaw in debates? Page 5

* Iran’s dual nationals warily await outcome of presidential poll. Page 8

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2 Highlights

 Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri appeared as the superstar of the first presidential debate but failed to realize expectations in the second. Conservative news website Tabnak presents reasons behind this. (See Page 5)

 Expatriates who have returned fear victory for hardliners would set back reforms. (See Page 8)

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3 Briefs

* Farsi-language newspaper Ghanoon writes that conservative Ahmad Tavakoli says that Ghalibaf will withdraw in favor of Raisi.

* Farsi-language website Aftab News writes that Ghalibaf himself has said that he will not withdraw.

* Farsi-language newspaper Ghanoon writes that Ghalibaf’s political adviser Hussein Ghorbanzadeh reacted to rumors in foreign-based Farsi- language news websites by saying that opinion polls show that Ghalibaf’s enjoys good position. Therefore, he said, Ghalibaf will not withdraw from the presidential race.

* Conservative Iranian news websites are highlighting the video clip which shows miners attacking (kicking and beating) President Rouhani’s car when he visited northern Golestan province to inspect the site of mining incident.

The miners were angry over the lack of attention to their situation.

Reformist newspaper Aftab claims that the attackers were not the miners themselves, but people came to area riding bikes.

* Iranian analyst Dr. Mehran Barati [based in Germany] tells Farsi- language satellite TV channel Manoto that Rouhani’s chances of re-election would increase dramatically if at least 60% of eligible should actually vote in upcoming presidential election.

* Farsi-language website Aftab News writes that Ghalibaf reacts to filtering of his website Karane by saying that the “4%” people have filtered website.

According to Iranian news media, Rouhani had complained to relevant authority that the website violates election law, as it seems to facilitate buying and selling votes.

Populism is defeated

Farsi-language state-owned newspaper Iran writes about the French election result with the headline “France manages to avoid the threat of populism”. It writes that French presidential election is now over with a historical defeat for Le Pen. It was a defeat for populism.

Nevertheless, it should be asked why about 30% of the French people voted in favor of populism. This is a danger threatens rest of the Europe.

The populist movement in French was unable to get about 30% of the votes even during current turbulent times for France and rest of the Europe. Europe was able to let out sigh of relief that the domino of populism was halted.

Populism has a short-term effect on people’s minds.

Once voters vote because they are swept away by populist slogans, then they return to their senses after some time, maybe regretting their votes.

Le Pen’s party has been unable to get more than 10-15%

of the votes. However, the party was able to 34% of the votes this time, which could be perceived as a respectable defeat.

Meanwhile, Jahan-e Sanaat newspaper writes that Macron’s position on Syria is that any pre-condition about peace in Syria would lead to a lost opportunity and delay achieving peace in Syria. This could be interpreted in this way: efforts to topple Assad could mean that West is in effect strengthening IS in Syria.

Furthermore, Macron has also advocated maintaining a balance between Iran and Saudi Arabia. This could mean Macron’s France would adopt a moderate policy towards Iran and Saudi Arabia. This could mean better relationship between Iran and France. However, this could be achieved only if Rouhani is re-elected.

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4 Populist promises

Farsi-language news websites based outside Iran are writing that Hojjatoleslam Ebrahim Raeesi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf have started to deviate from the traditional characteristics normally attributed to hardliner factions. Instead of associating Rouhani and his allies with

“sedition” and associated themselves with the Islamic values, these two candidates are making appeals to populism and criticize Rouhani and his government about corruption and economic problems.

Correctly perceiving that Iranians are very worried about their livelihoods and economic problems, Raeesi and Ghalibaf are making populist promises concerning economic development, environment, jobs and living standards.

Candidates making promises about solving environmental issues indicates how important the issue has become among Iranians, especially the youth.

Some of the problems are raising the cash subsidies to the most needy Iranians and the unemployed and create jobs by promoting domestic companies. Ghalibaf promises to increase GDP 2.5 times.

However, they do not explain exactly how they will finance these promises.

IRGC reacts to remarks about missile program

President Rouhani’s latest remark on Iran’s missile program has aroused the ire

of the military establishment. In the second presidential debate, Rouhani accused IRGC of trying to sabotage the JCPOA.

“What did they do in order to undermine the JCPOA?” Rouhani asked, referring to the IRGC. “They wrote slogans on a missile so that we cannot use the JCPOA,”

he added, pointing to the IRGC test-launch of a ballistic missile in March 2016 which had “Israel should be wiped off the Earth”

inscribed on it in Hebrew.

On Monday, the chief of staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Major General Mohammad Hossein Bagheri criticized Rouhani and reiterated that the country’s missile program is not covered under the nuclear agreement. “It is not appropriate for a candidate and official to relate the projection of the nation’s missile power – which has been attained through the blessing of the blood of martyrs and has deterred enemies’ threats – to a trivial matter such as JCPOA,” said Bagheri.

Bagheri had previously warned the six presidential candidates in an official letter not to express views on the country’s military and defense matters during the campaign season.

Separately, Brigadier General Gholamhossein Ghaib-Parvar, who was appointed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei the new head of the Basij Organization in December, also blasted the president’s comment. “Is the slogan of death to Israel on a missile a bad thing? In principle, the annihilation of Israel is one of our goals,” he emphasized.

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5 Why did Jahangiri seesaw in debates?

 From the beginning of the presidential competition, Vice President and electoral contender Eshaq Jahangiri has run in lieu of the Reformist front as a ‘cover candidate’

in order to support President Hassan Rouhani during the campaigns and debates.

 Although many observers would find Jahangiri’s candidacy in the presidential race as a bid to back President Hassan Rouhani, labeling it a ‘cover candidacy’, the Vice

President’s appropriately powerful approach during the first presidential debate made him the phenomenon of the race.

 During the debate, Jahangiri introduced himself as a representative of the Reformist front, purporting to want to remain in the race until the very end.

 The strategy turned Eshaq Jahangiri from an attentive, sharp-witted man who opposed rival candidates by listing precise facts and figures in the first debate into a reticent participant in the second debate, who read prewritten statements in response to criticisms posed by the rival.

 According to unverified reports, despite the fact that Hassan Rouhani appeared more successful in answering the questions and challenging his rivals during the second debate, some pro-Rouhani political activists are cynical of the approach that has turned Jahangiri into a neutral participant, giving the lead in debates to the rivals.

 Critical is the decision Jahangiri is going to adopt at a time all the Reformists are stressing efforts to help Hassan Rouhani win the race.

 In an interview with Tabnak, Reformist politician Darioush Ghanbari said there is no doubt Jahangiri will spare no effort to provide support for Hassan Rouhani during the race.

Tabnak conservative news website: From the beginning of the presidential competition, Vice President and electoral contender Eshaq Jahangiri has run in lieu of the Reformist front as a ‘cover candidate’ in order to support President Hassan Rouhani during the campaigns and debates. After his impressive performance in the first debate, rumors began having him as the ultimate contender, with Rouhani withdrawing in his favor.

Jahangiri, a veteran politician of the Rouhani administration, arrived in the Interior Ministry in the last-minute attempt to sign up as a presidential candidate, opening a

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new chapter in the election. But now he is seen as potent, serious candidate in the presidential race.

The solid start of the cover candidate

Although many observers would find Jahangiri’s candidacy in the presidential race as a bid to back President Hassan Rouhani, labeling it a ‘cover candidacy’, the Vice President’s appropriately powerful approach during the first presidential debate made him the phenomenon of the race. This was evident in polls that saw Jahangiri’s votes skyrocket.

During the debate, Jahangiri introduced himself as a representative of the Reformist front, purporting to want to remain in the race until the very end. Even though most pundits find it a bluff, some are inclined to use the situation to push Jahangiri further into the race.

Jahangiri’s solid performance in the first debate persuaded the Reformists to establish campaign headquarters for him. The VP appointed his fellow townsman and member of the Executives of Construction Party, Hossein Mar’ashi, as the head of his campaign headquarters.

Danger felt

Following his successful appearance in the first debate, some Reformist figures and Principlist analysts welcomed his role as a real candidate. However, a group of decision-makers in the Moderate-Reformist camp found the increasing welcome for the Vice President a sign of danger and undertook to change the course of events: The president was ought to take part more seriously in issues brought up during the debates, appearing as the candidate who uttered the key points.

The strategy turned Eshaq Jahangiri from an attentive, sharp-witted man who opposed rival candidates by listing precise facts and figures in the first debate into a reticent participant in the second debate, who read prewritten statements in response to criticisms posed by the rival.

According to unverified reports, despite the fact that Hassan Rouhani appeared more successful in answering the questions and challenging his rivals during the second debate, some pro-Rouhani political activists are cynical of the approach that has

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turned Jahangiri into a neutral participant, giving the lead in debates to the rivals.

Principlist candidates Raisi, Qalibaf, and Mirsalim have a coordinated critical approach toward the administration, where by backing each other, they have managed to bring up their criticisms and challenge the Rouhani administration.

The VP’s response

It may explain why Jahangiri published two successive post on his Twitter account, with one noting that there is still time to go before the presidential race. “The third debate will determine the winning side,” he tweeted. As if aware that he and Hassan Rouhani had lost in the Friday debate, he wrote: “We are still in the middle of the course. We’ll see which side has plans to discuss. Wait, as there is time left before the election. Wait, and you’ll see a shift in the third debate”.

Critical is the decision Jahangiri is going to adopt at a time all the Reformists are stressing efforts to help Hassan Rouhani win the race. Will he withdraw in favor of Rouhani or will he prefer to remain and compete?

In an interview with Tabnak, Reformist politician Darioush Ghanbari said there is no doubt Jahangiri will spare no effort to provide support for Hassan Rouhani during the race. “Rouhani is now the only choice for the Reformists and moderates and Jahangiri has come to help. He has become involved in the best way possible,” Ghanbari added.

However, Ghanbari reiterated that elections are not predictable and we should wait to see how the Reformists would decide in the end.

On the other hand, Principlist figure and member of the Combatant Clergy Association Ahmad Salek has told Tabnak that Jahangiri enjoys higher popularity in comparison with Rouhani. “The Reformists will doubtlessly opt for Jahangiri if they feel that Rouhani does not a significant voter base,” Salek said.

“Jahangiri proved, particularly in the first debate, that he is more informed about the accomplishments of the administration and issues of the country and thus is a better option to compete in the race than Rouhani,” he added.

He went on to say that we should wait to see how the election would go: “Whether Rouhani has it or the Principlist front could create a situation in which Jahangiri will choose to remain in the race”.

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8 Iran’s dual nationals warily await

outcome of presidential poll

 The 33-year-old, who has Iranian and British citizenship, was surprised by the approach last year, but intrigued by the pitch: move back from the UK, set up a business with support from the government and help develop Iran’s economy.

 After finishing his PhD in engineering and spending 11 years in the UK, Mr Zolfaghari moved to Tehran in December to look for business opportunities.

 He is one of hundreds of dual nationals Mr Rouhani’s centrist government has lured back to the Islamic republic in a bid to reverse decades of “brain drain”.

 But whether Mr Zolfaghari stays could be determined by the outcome of the May 19 presidential election as he anxiously waits to see if Mr Rouhani or a hardline

opponent wins.

 The fear among Iranians who back reform is that if a hardline candidate defeats Mr Rouhani, those trends will be reversed.

 “I heard about the arrest of dual nationals, but my bigger concern is about the country’s political and economic situation if Rouhani is not re-elected,” says Mr Zolfaghari, whose wife joined him from the UK two months ago.

 There are millions of Iranians in the diaspora, mainly families in North America and Europe who left the country in the years after the 1979 Islamic revolution a rich pool of talent and wealth Mr Rouhani’s government was keen to tap.

 But Raheleh, a 35-year-old Iranian-Canadian businesswoman, who moved to Iran two years ago, is not convinced and likely to pack her bags if Mr Raisi or Mr Qalibaf win.

Financial Times: Alireza Zolfaghari had briefly returned to Tehran to visit his family when an Iranian government official contacted him through LinkedIn.

The 33-year-old, who has Iranian and British citizenship, was surprised by the approach last year, but intrigued by the pitch: move back from the UK, set up a business with support from the government and help develop Iran’s economy.

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“I was encouraged to see technocrats in the government of [President Hassan]

Rouhani who gave me grants and office space to launch a start-up,” Mr Zolfaghari says.

After finishing his PhD in engineering and spending 11 years in the UK, Mr Zolfaghari moved to Tehran in December to look for business opportunities. He is one of hundreds of dual nationals Mr Rouhani’s centrist government has lured back to the Islamic republic in a bid to reverse decades of “brain drain”.

But whether Mr Zolfaghari stays could be determined by the outcome of the May 19 presidential election as he anxiously waits to see if Mr Rouhani or a hardline opponent wins.

“My personal and professional preference is to stay here and contribute to an upward trend,” he says. “But if Iran goes back to the era of [former hardline president Mahmoud] Ahmadi-Nejad. . . I think it is not logical for me and my family to stay here and go backwards.”

It is a concern playing on the minds of other dual nationalities ahead of the poll, which business executives and pro-reform analysts say is a choice between a continuation of Iran’s tentative opening up to the rest of the world, or a return to the populist policies and international isolation endured during Mr Ahmadi-Nejad’s presidency.

Since Mr Rouhani took office in 2013, his government has allowed greater social and cultural freedoms, while seeking to use the landmark nuclear deal it signed with world powers to re-engage with the west and attract foreign investment. The fear among Iranians who back reform is that if a hardline candidate defeats Mr Rouhani, those trends will be reversed. There have already been signs that dual nationals have good reason to be nervous.

In recent years, several Iranians holding dual nationality have been arrested on charges ranging from having alcohol — which is banned in the Islamic republic — to alleged links to British intelligence agencies and co-operation with the US, Iran’s arch enemy.

Reformist analysts believe the arrests and detentions were part of efforts by hardliners in the judiciary and elite Revolutionary Guards to dissuade others from joining pro- reform groups.

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“I heard about the arrest of dual nationals, but my bigger concern is about the country’s political and economic situation if Rouhani is not re-elected,” says Mr Zolfaghari, whose wife joined him from the UK two months ago. “What if new sanctions are imposed? We are already struggling because of sanctions to access American technology, for instance, to advertise on Facebook and Google.”

Neither of Mr Rouhani’s two main opponents — Ebrahim Raisi, a senior cleric and former prosecutor-general, and Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the mayor of Tehran — appear keen for warmer ties with the west.

Mr Raisi told supporters last week that it was wrong to “seek help from the outside” to solve the country’s economic problems.

Mr Rouhani has countered the attacks on his record and criticism of the nuclear agreement by accusing his opponents of wanting to keep Iran isolated to protect their own business interests.

“You want to take us back to four years ago? But we won’t go back . . . You want to have sanctions and restrictions re-imposed on Iran,” he told a rally at the weekend.

There are millions of Iranians in the diaspora, mainly families in North America and Europe who left the country in the years after the 1979 Islamic revolution — a rich pool of talent and wealth Mr Rouhani’s government was keen to tap. It launched its initiative to lure people back to the republic two years ago and has received 3,700 applicants, more than 600 of whom have returned to the Islamic republic, officials say.

Nashid Nabian, a Harvard graduate, was already considering returning to her homeland when she was approached by an Iranian official on Facebook. Initially, she suspected it was a trick. But after meeting officials in Tehran in January last year, Ms Nabian, who has Iranian and Canadian citizenship, moved back to set up the Tehran Innovation Urban Centre, an organisation focused on urban planning.

The 40-year-old says she will stay whoever wins on May 19, but expects the pace of reform to slow if a hardline candidate is victorious.

“Iranian expatriates can be the bridge and the engine to establish new paradigms and come up with new ideas,” she says. “Iran is moving forward. If Mr Rouhani is re-

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elected, the speed will be higher and if not the speed will become slower, but the trend will remain upward.”

But Raheleh, a 35-year-old Iranian-Canadian businesswoman, who moved to Iran two years ago, is not convinced and likely to pack her bags if Mr Raisi or Mr Qalibaf win.

Whether she and others like her decide to stay will be one barometer of the direction Iran takes after the election.

“I came back with hopes of life improving under Rouhani, who has not been doing too great in the economy, but I will lose my hope in any reforms if Raisi or Qalibaf win,” Raheleh says.