1 Report for

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Daily Report for Tuesday, February 23, 2016

1 Report for

Tuesday,

February 23, 2015 Esfand 4, 1394

Highlights, Page 2 News Briefs, Page 3

Reformists’ list, Page 6

‘Special messages’ aside, Iran’s S-300 missiles still up in air, Page 8

Some things you need to know about this week’s elections, Page 11 Iran elections: why are they important and who is running? Page 14 Moderates could gain influence over choice of next leader, Page 17

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2 Highlights

 Despite the increasing regional cooperation between Iran and Russia, the

Tehran-Moscow relationship is marred by distrust over the long-stalled S-300 air defense missile deal. (See Page 8)

 Iranian politics are often described as a battle between Reformists and conservatives. But since there are no official political parties in the Islamic Republic of Iran, this view is highly simplistic and sometimes inaccurate. In Iran, major political power brokers align among fluid and sometimes blurred factions and groupings. Major political events often dictate the platform of these factions rather than the reverse. (See Page 11)

 Thousands of contenders are rushing to make use of Iran’s short campaigning window in a contest that will determine crucial support for President Hassan Rouhani’s policy efforts. (See Page 14)

 Assembly of Experts, made up mostly of elderly clerics, has not mattered much for years. This time it is different. Given the ailing health of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 76, the Assembly to be elected on February 26 for an eight-year term is likely to pick his successor, charting the course of the country for many years to come. (See Page 17)

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News Briefs

 Kermani: We put Rafsanjani on the CCA list for the sake of unity.

Entekhab conservative news website reports that (pragmatic conservative) Combatant Clergy Association (CCA) Secretary General Ayatollah Ali Movahedi Kermani explained Ayatollah Rafsanjani’s presence on the CCA electoral list during a recent speech. Kermani stated, “I was not the decision- maker on this issue; the CCA Council made this decision. There were differences of opinion on this issue; the people who wanted Rafsanjani on the list argued that the Supreme Leader did not want to create polarization in the elections.” Kermani also responded to his own inclusion on a moderate list, stating “I am a revolutionary and a Principlist… I was not happy about this.”

 Jazayeri criticizes Foreign Ministry. Deputy Chief of Staff Masoud Jazayeri, said that the Foreign Ministry had been silent about Britain’s plots and that Iranian people were waiting for Government action against the “voice of Satan”. He specifically said that the coverage of BBC Persian should be met with an “overwhelming response”. Fearful of gains by a centrist-reformist alliance in Friday’s ballots for Parliament and the Assembly of Experts, regime factions — including the Supreme Leader — have put out the line that the US and Britain are trying to undermine the Islamic Republic. Kalame opposition news website sees the comment as a sign of tension and in-fighting over February 26.

o Kalame opposition news website writes that the Foreign Ministry appeared to acknowledge the military pressure with a statement later on Monday announcing the British role in elections. Foreign Ministry spokesman Hossein Jaberi Ansari said: The Islamic Republic of Iran’s position is a clear one; an important achievement of Iran’s Islamic Revolution is independence and freedom, and the vigilant nation of Iran does not need the advice of any foreign player. We are sure that, in the upcoming elections, the Iranian nation will prepare the grounds for the expansion of Islamic Republic’s power at the international and regional level through their massive participation and vigilant and conscious choice.

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 Rafsanjani: President Rouhani was elected because of me. Entekhab conservative news website reports that Expediency Discernment Council Chairman Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani emphasized the importance of disqualified candidates supporting other candidates during a meeting with election staff on February 20. Rafsanjani claimed that President Hassan Rouhani’s victory in the 2013 presidential election was due to his support. He stated that after he endorsed President Rouhani, “Rouhani’s support went from three to four percent to over 50 percent.” Rafsanjani also noted that there are currently 200 moderate candidates running for the Parliamentary elections and 60 moderates running for the Assembly of Expert elections. Many moderates are likely hoping to attract reformist-inclined voters in order to edge out their more conservative opponents, who have dominated the last several parliamentary elections.

 Hassan Khomeini: The people must not be “indifferent” towards elections.

Iran state-owned newspaper Iran writes that Hojjatoleslam Hassan Khomeini stated, “through correct voting and selection, we can take steps to solve the problems [including unemployment, inflation, addition, oppression, and injustice]; taking out one’s anger at the ballot box [by not voting]... is not the solution.” He continued, “all people who have complaints about some processes should pursue their complaints in the future. This week, they must act for the best and most capable people.” The grandson of Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini stressed, “The elections are our right, and we must not be indifferent towards that right.” The Guardian Council barred Khomeini from running in the February 26 elections.

 Aref urges voting. Shargh reformist newspaper writes that prominent reformist politician Mohammad Reza Aref also urged Iranians to participate in the elections. He called for Iranians to “continue in the path of the [2013 presidential elections], because we have no other route than this; we must compete with rivals in such a manner that we can be friendly the day after the election.”

 Principlist Coalition Council Spokesman: We are not worried about Principlist unity. State-owned newspaper Iran writes that Principlist Coalition Council Spokesman Gholam Ali Haddad Adel dismissed concerns that some Principlists in the next Parliament might be “inclined towards the Reformists”

during a press conference on February 21. Haddad Adel was responding to the

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inclusion of several well-known Principlists on Reformist and moderate lists, as was announced last week. He stated, “Do not doubt that there is a wide political spectrum in the Principlist list, our opponents’ lists have this issue as well.” Haddad Adel added, “It is important for Principlist candidates to define their own boundaries with each other…”

 Bahonar: The Principlists must remain unified. Jomhouri Islami conservative newspaper writes that principlist Parliamentarian Mohammad Reza Bahonar also urged unity among the Principlists in the elections during a speech with supporters in Tehran. Bahonar warned that divisions “will allow the Reformists to enter Parliament.” Despite the best efforts by the Principlist Coalition, the two Principlist political organizations in the Assembly of Experts – the Society of Qom Seminary Teachers and the Combative Clergy Association (CCA) – submitted different lists of endorsed candidates. Most notably, the Combative Clergy Association endorsed Rafsanjani – who has received severe criticism from hardliners recently – while the Society of Qom Seminary Teachers refrained from supporting the Expediency Discernment Council secretary.

 IRGC Ground Forces member killed in Syria. Tasnim News Agency reports that Hamid Reza Ansari was buried in Markazi province on February 19. He was reportedly a member of IRGC Ruhollah unit of Markazi province.

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6 Reformists’ list

Kalame opposition news website posts the list of reformist candidates for Majlis. It writes that at least 15 identifiably reformist candidates on the reformist list for Tehran.

Tehran has 30 seats.

1 Mohammad Reza Aref, Omid Iranian Foundation (REFORMIST) 2 Farideh Olad-Ghobad, Independent

3 Mohammad Reza Badamchi, Islamic Labor Party (REFORMIST) 4 Kazem Jalali, “Ali Larijani ally”

5 Soheila Jelodarzadeh, Islamic Labor Party (REFORMIST) 6 Fatemeh Hosseini, Independent

7 Elias Hazrati, National Trust Party (REFORMIST)

8 Gholamreza Heydari, Islamic Iran Participation Front (REFORMIST) 9 Fatemeh Zolghadr, Islamic Labor Party (sympathizer) (REFORMIST) 10 Alireza Rahimi, BARAN Foundation (REFORMIST)

11 Abolfazl Soroush, Islamic Association of Iranian Medical Society 12 Fatemeh Saeidi, Executives of Construction Party (REFORMIST)

13 Parvaneh Salahshour, Assembly of Graduates of Islamic Iran (REFORMIST) 14 Ali Nobakht, Moderation and Development Party

15 Tayyebeh Siavoshi, Independent

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16 Mehdi Sheykh, Independent

17 Mahmoud Sadeghi, Islamic Association of University Instructors 18 Mohsen Alijani-Zamani, Association of Combatant Clerics 19 Mohammad Javad Fathi, Independent

20 Mostafa Kavakebian, Democracy Party (REFORMIST) 21 Ahmad Mazani, National Trust Party (REFORMIST)

22 Parvaneh Mafi, Executives of Construction Party (REFORMIST) 23 Alirez Mahjoub, Worker House (REFORMIST)

24 Davoud Mohammadi, “Ali Larijani ally”

25 Ali Motahari, People’s Voice

26 Farid Mousavi, Union of Islamic Iran People Party (REFORMIST) 27 Mohammad Reza Najafi, Islamic Association of Teachers

28 Behrouz Nemati, “Ali Larijani ally”

29 Mohammad-Ali Vakili, Independent (Ebtekar newspaper)

30 Abdolreza Hashemzaei, Executives of Construction Party (REFORMIST)

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8 ‘Special messages’ aside,

Iran’s S-300 missiles still up in air

Al-Monitor news website: Prior to his recent trip to Russia, Iran’s Defense Minister Brig. Gen. Hossein Dehghan announced that he will discuss the long-stalled transfer of the S-300 air defense system as well as the possibility of reaching an agreement on the purchase of multirole Sukhoi Su-30 fighter jets. While in Moscow, he met with senior Russian officials, including his counterpart, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, and President Vladimir Putin.

After the February 16 visit, Russian media outlets reported that the first batch of S- 300 missiles had been shipped February 17 via the Caspian Sea, from Astrakhan in Russia to Bandar-e Anzali in Iran, and had officially been delivered in the presence of Dehghan himself. Sputnik News Agency quoted Russian sources on the latter and later published an interview with Deputy Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Maj. Gen. Mostafa Izadi, in which Izadi confirmed that Russia has indeed delivered the first shipment of the missiles.

However, in spite of widespread expectations in Iran that Russia would take the first step toward implementing the S-300 deal, in order to rebuild trust, the Putin’s spokesperson suddenly announced that the missiles will not be delivered since Iran has not yet paid for them. The Russian reasoning was that it is therefore too soon to deliver the missiles. Although the reasons for Moscow’s sudden turnaround are not wholly clear, it can be argued that it has further increased Iranian distrust of the Russians.

In regard to the possibility of Iran buying new fighter jets from Russia, Dehghan announced, “We know how many Sukhoi Su-30 fighters we are planning to buy.

However, for now, we shall not announce the number.” Previously, some sources had mentioned the possibility of Iran buying Chinese J-10 fighters or French Mirage fighters. However, both of these possibilities were denied by Iranian military officials.

Indeed, in a recent interview, Dehghan noted, “I have seen these fighters myself, but we are not planning to purchase the Chinese fighters.”

Some Russian reports suggest that Tehran is likely to sign an $8 billion contract with Moscow for the purchase of military equipment. If this is true, the question is which

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kind of changes to Iran’s military capabilities the procurement of Sukhoi Su-30 fighters and the S-300 air defense system will bring about. What are the advantages of these weapons systems compared to those used by Iran’s regional rivals? Will purchasing military equipment from Russia enable Iran to fill the gap in its capabilities compared to rivals such as Israel, Turkey and some Arab states?

Following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, sanctions were imposed on the Iranian air force. The Islamic Republic was thus only able to purchase a limited number of J-7 fighters, MiG-29, Sukhoi-24 and Sukhoi-25 for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Forces. Consequently, the backbone of the Iranian air force is made up of old American fighters such as Phantoms, Tigers and Tomcats. Meanwhile, Iran’s regional rivals have rapidly developed their air forces, with all of them currently in possession of advanced fighters such as the F-15, F-16, F-18, Eurofighter Typhoon and Rafale. These countries are additionally slated to be equipped with the fifth- generation F-35 fighter over the course of the next decade. A mere cursory glance at electronic war capabilities, active phased array radars, armament systems, maneuverability, endurance and radar cross sections shows that the Sukhoi Su-30 is not capable of successfully confronting the aforementioned Western warplanes in a heavy aerial battle.

Admittedly, compared to the Western fighter jets, the Sukhoi Su-30 has two relative advantages; namely, a long-range high-resolution radar and animated engine output, which helps its high agility. However, in other areas, and especially considering the weaknesses of Russian-made electronic armor and its very large radar cross section, Sukhoi fighters won’t stand much of a chance against highly advanced radar and anti- radar systems or fourth and fifth generation fighters, many of which are currently in operation in the region. Nonetheless, the S-300 air defense system is still capable of dealing with rather advanced fighters, and it can partly compensate for weaknesses in Iran’s defenses.

In terms of offensive capabilities, Iran is facing serious technological problems. In this vein, Russian failures in post-sale services and upgrade operations should also be added to the list of problems. For instance, the Iranians continue to face plenty of issues with the repair and maintenance of their Sukhoi-24 and MiG-29 fighters.

President Hassan Rouhani’s administration is aware of these problems and is looking for an alternative to buying military equipment from Russia. Some rumors in Tehran have it that Iran is desperately trying to gain access to the technology necessary for

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designing and manufacturing these advanced fighters on its own. Perhaps the Russians have gotten the point, as soon after Dehghan’s return from Moscow, Shoigu appeared in Tehran on an “unexpected” visit. Reports say the Russian official brought a “special message” from Putin to Rouhani and discussed Syria as well as bilateral matters.

If anything, it seems as if Moscow is seeking to keep Tehran as a customer by resorting to engaging in symbolic measures. For instance, while failing to live up to his commitment to deliver the S-300 missiles, Putin is, through measures such as personally bringing a special gift to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and dispatching an envoy to Tehran with a special message, trying to tell the Islamic Republic that he is a strategic ally of Iran. This is while the Rouhani administration is becoming increasingly pessimistic about Putin’s measures because of his failure to live up to his commitments.

Indeed, Iran has expressed a desire to forge constructive cooperation with any country, and especially those of the West. In this vein, if the sanctions on arms deals are lifted as scheduled in the next five years, Iran will more than likely look to expand research and development cooperation with international companies in order to obtain the technology necessary for designing advanced fighters that are capable of dealing with threats to Iran. The fact that the Iranians continue to buy equipment from Russia, while fully aware of the problems it entails, only goes to show that Western countries remain reluctant to sell conventional military equipment to Iran. Ultimately, the outcome of the latter is that the Russians are bound to generate tens of billions of dollars in arms sales while their Western rivals will be deprived from such revenues.

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1 1 Some things you need to know

about this week’s elections in Iran

Al-Monitor news website: Iranian politics are often described as a battle between Reformists and conservatives. But since there are no official political parties in the Islamic Republic of Iran, this view is highly simplistic and sometimes inaccurate. In Iran, major political power brokers align among fluid and sometimes blurred factions and groupings. Major political events often dictate the platform of these factions rather than the reverse.

With an economy stabilized but not yet recovered and many campaign promises still unfulfilled, President Hassan Rouhani is hoping that the Feb. 26 elections brings about a grouping of parliamentary factions that will cooperate with rather than hinder his policies.

Whereas in the United States, campaign season feels like an unending affair, in Iran, the window for official campaigning — in which candidates can hold rallies and advertise — is very short. This year, campaigning began Feb 18. It will end just one day before the elections, on Feb. 25. One week of campaigning offers new candidates and lesser-known political figures very little time to create the momentum and publicity necessary to attract a high number of votes.

Perhaps due to the narrow campaign window and the sheer number of candidates — approximately 6,200 this year — parliamentary elections rarely have the same weight and enthusiasm as presidential elections. The presidential elections of 2013 saw a nearly 73% voter turnout. The 2012 parliamentary elections, which many Reformists boycotted in the wake of the contested 2009 presidential elections and the subsequent crackdown on protests, had a reported 64% voter turnout. However, that figure was questioned by non-Iranian media outlets, which pointed to a delay in reporting by the Interior Ministry.

Many Iranians will decide to vote at the last moment based on “lists” that are often headed by a single popular figure. Despite many of their most accomplished members being disqualified, in prison or exiled, the Reformists are still pushing for a large turnout in the elections. The best-known Reformist figure in the country, former President Mohammad Khatami, is now banned from appearing in the official Iranian

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media. He released a video message encouraging voter participation and asking Iranians to vote for the candidates on the Reformist list to help the president fulfill his political, cultural and economic campaign promises.

In Tehran, one of the major electoral battlegrounds, 1,121 candidates are vying for 30 seats. Mohammad Reza Aref, who was Khatami’s vice president from 2001 to 2005, heads the Reformist list in Tehran. Before holding office with Khatami, the Stanford- educated Aref was the minister of technology from 1997 to 2000. At the urging of Khatami, Aref withdrew from the 2013 presidential elections in favor of the moderate Rouhani so as not to divide the Reformist votes.

Aref, like most other Reformists in the running, is a moderate. During his political life he has kept his distance from the more radical Reformist positions. Therefore, his 30- person list for Tehran predictably also includes moderate conservatives, Iran’s Principlists. One name that surprised many was that of outspoken parliamentarian from Tehran Ali Motahhari. While Motahhari has earned the praise of Reformists for his criticism of the five-year house arrest of the Green Movement leaders, he is admittedly a conservative on social issues, particularly the never-ending battle over the enforcement of the country’s hijab laws. Motahhari also heads his own lesser- known but more conservative list of candidates called the People’s Voice.

Another name on the Tehran Reformist list that surprised some observers was that of Kazem Jalali, a member of the conservative Followers of the Leadership parliamentary faction. His inclusion is a prime example of the fluid and often ephemeral factional labels of politicians in Iran. Like most members of the Followers of the Leadership, Jalali supported Rouhani’s efforts to cut the nuclear deal. However, his position on the 2009 protests, that all individuals involved including the Green Movement leaders should have their charges reviewed, runs contrary to the current Reformist platform.

In today’s political climate, however, there is no doubt that the Reformists, supporters of the administration, moderate conservatives including parliament Speaker Ali Larijani and members of the Followers of the Leadership faction seek to prevent hard- liners from dominating the next parliament. Differences over the events of 2009 and cultural policies are overlooked in the interest of a political alliance that serves the interests of all those involved.

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Despite reports of competing lists, conservatives have presented their own coalition in provinces across the country. Gholam Ali Haddad Adel, who has been a member of parliament since 2000 and was the first non-cleric to head it when he was speaker in 2004, leads the 30-candidate conservative list for Tehran. Haddad Adel is an adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and their families are close. His daughter is married to Khamenei’s son Mojtaba. Rumor has it that Haddad Adel would like to take back the speaker of parliament position from Larijani, who has decided to run as an independent.

The conservative list, populated by traditional conservatives such as Ahmad Tavakoli, also includes a surprising number of hard-liners: Hojat al-Islam Morteza Aghatehrani, former ethics adviser to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and secretary of the hard- line Endurance Front; Mehrdad Bazrpash, former adviser to Ahmadinejad and editor of the hard-line Vatan-e Emrooz, which staunchly opposes Rouhani’s policies; current parliament member Alireza Zakani; Ismail Kowsari, an influential member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission; and Seyyed Mohammad Nabavian, a member of the Endurance Front. First Deputy Speaker Seyyed Mohammad Hassan Abourarabi Fard is also on the list.

Though there are only nine women in the current parliament, 586 women are running in the parliamentary elections. Haddad Adel’s conservative Tehran list includes six female candidates. Aref’s list includes eight.

These elections will not change Iran’s foreign policy, nor will they jeopardize the nuclear deal. A cooperative parliament can, however, allow Rouhani’s ministers to focus on the difficult challenges ahead of them rather than being constantly summoned to parliament, as they have been in record numbers. In one of the more extreme cases, for example, the foreign minister was summoned for taking a stroll with the US secretary of state while conducting the nuclear negotiations in Europe.

If Rouhani intends to run for a second term and win, he will need a cooperative parliament to help him fulfill his campaign promises, such as more open universities.

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1 4 Iran elections: why are they important

and who is running?

The Guardian newspaper’s website. Saeed Kamali Dehghan: On Friday Iranians will vote in two elections, the first to be held since a landmark nuclear agreement was signed last year under which international sanctions were lifted.

Why are the elections important?

Although the presidential election is not due until next year, Friday’s elections for the next Majlis (the Iranian parliament) and the assembly of experts (the clerical body in charge of appointing the next supreme leader) come at a critical time. For more than a decade, conservatives dominated Iran’s main political institutions, but Hassan Rouhani’s victory in the 2013 presidential election changed that. Rouhani’s government is run by moderates, but other institutions such as parliament are still dominated by conservatives. Both of Friday’s elections are a battleground between hardliners already in power and moderate and pro-reform figures seeking a comeback.

Are they fair?

The short answer is no, but that does not mean they are not competitive. In 2013 Rouhani, an approved candidate, created an extraordinary momentum for change and was elected on a mandate considered at home and abroad to be legitimate.

All candidates have to be vetted before any election in Iran. The vetting process is carried out by the guardian council, an influential body of clerics and jurists close to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. How far the council can go to block candidates under the constitution is subject to dispute. In recent years the council has disqualified a significant number of reformist candidates. A grandson of the Islamic Republic’s founding father, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, was among those whose candidacies were not approved for the assembly election on Friday.

How many people are running?

More than 12,000 people registered as candidates for this week’s parliamentary election but more than half were disqualified, among them former MPs and many

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reformist figures. That left more than 6,200 candidates, including 586 women, campaigning for a place in the 290-seat parliament. In the capital, Tehran, more than 1,000 candidates are competing for just 30 seats.

Out of more than 800 Islamic theologians who stood for the 88-member assembly of experts, only 161 were approved. This initially meant that in six provinces a single candidate was standing unopposed, until officials moved candidates at the last minute to rectify the issue. No women have been allowed to stand for the assembly.

Are reformists boycotting because of the disqualifications?

No. Despite widespread disqualifications by the guardian council, there is no sign of an organised boycott. Reformists are actively campaigning and have put aside differences by forming a coalition and offering a joint list of their favourite candidates in the capital and other major cities.

In Tehran, the reformists’ coalition for the parliament is led by a former presidential candidate, Mohammad Reza Aref, an influential figure whose decision to stand down in favour of Rouhani in the 2013 presidential race was crucial to the latter’s victory.

The conservative frontrunner in the capital is Gholamali Haddad-Adel.

The family of one of the opposition leaders under house arrest, Mehdi Karroubi, have indicated that he wants people to participate in the elections and support the reformists. A number of political prisoners held in Tehran’s notorious Evin prison have sent messages encouraging people not to boycott and to vote for reformists.

What about the assembly of experts?

The assembly election is usually a lacklustre event, but not this time. In theorythe assembly has the power to dismiss the supreme leader should a majority of its members so wish, but in reality Khamenei has become so powerful that the assembly’s supervisory role has diminished to a symbolic one, with members acting as his devotees.

However, the assembly is primarily tasked with appointing the next supreme leader, and due to Khamenei’s age – he is 76 – and the eight-year terms of assembly

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members, it is possible that the members voted in this time will choose his successor.

The next leader himself may well be among those elected this week.

The reformists’ favourite candidate is a former president, Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. Their aim is to block the three main ultra-conservative leaders – Ahmad Jannati, Mohammad Yazdi and Mohammad Taghi Mesbah-Yazdi – from the next assembly. Mesbah-Yazdi, an 80-year-old cleric often referred to as Ayatollah Mesbah, is a hardline politician who supported the former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in his initial years in office. He is famous for his critical views about Iran’s reformist movement and in particular his opposition to the presidency of Mohammad Khatami.

Who is Rafsanjani?

Rafsanjani was among the founding members of the Islamic republic, and its president from 1989 to 1997. Now 80, he is well known for his pragmatism and is one of Iran’s great political survivors. After the 1979 Islamic revolution, Rafsanjani became the first speaker of parliament, a job he kept for nine years. During the Iran-Iraq war he was Khomeini’s top representative in the supreme defence council, acting as the de facto commander-in-chief of the Iranian military. When Khomeini died in 1989, Rafsanjani played an instrumental role in the appointment of Khamenei as the current supreme leader. He is the head of the expediency council, which mediates between parliament and the guardian council. But he has lost a great deal of his power in recent years and two of his children have been jailed. He fell foul of Khamenei after supporting the opposition Green movement in the disputed 2009 presidential elections. He is now allied with the reformists.

The implications for Rouhani

These elections will also serve as a vote of confidence in Rouhani’s moderate government, which was responsible for securing the nuclear accord in spite of hardline opposition at home. The outcome of both votes will have significant consequences for Rouhani in the remaining two years of his presidency and will affect his chances of re-election in 2017. They can also change the political landscape of Iran for the next generation. Rouhani himself is a candidate for the assembly and some people think he has big ambitions for the future. He is number two on the list of candidates supported by the reformists, just under Rafsanjani.

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1 7 Moderates could gain influence over

choice of next leader in Iran vote

Reuters news agency: Iran’s Assembly of Experts, made up mostly of elderly clerics, has not mattered much for years. The body’s main task is choosing Iran’s supreme leader, but that job has not come vacant since 1989.

This time it is different. Given the ailing health of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 76, the Assembly to be elected on Feb. 26 for an eight-year term is likely to pick his successor, charting the course of the country for many years to come.

The Supreme Leader is the highest military and judicial authority in the country and has broad powers overseeing other branches of government. Even the president, who is directly elected, has less authority.

Khamenei, hard-line successor to the Islamic Republic’s founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, has ensured for decades that Tehran remains hostile to the United States abroad, and slow to embrace cultural reforms at home.

Elections for parliament are scheduled for the same day, but it is the outcome of the Assembly election that is likely to have a much greater long-term impact.

In terms of numbers, hard-liners are almost certain to have the upper hand. The Guardian Council, a hard-liner-dominated government body that reviews the eligibility of candidates, has already disqualified 475 candidates, many thought to be moderates, leaving just 161 people vying for 88 places.

Among those disqualified was Khomeini’s grandson Hassan Khomeini, a charismatic reformer blessed with his grandfather’s potent name. The Council questioned his religious qualifications.

But the list of those permitted to stand includes other prominent moderates, first and foremost President Hassan Rouhani himself, who is riding a wave of domestic popularity after helping seal a nuclear deal with world powers last year.

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He is joined by one of his most influential predecessors, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who already holds an Assembly seat and will be campaigning to keep it.

Earlier this week, Rouhani released the names of 16 candidates, including Rafsanjani, in a bloc calling themselves the “Friends of Moderation.” Their campaign slogan:

“Moderation is Islam.”

Within the Assembly, a conservative majority bloc is likely to be led by hard-line clerics like Mohammad Taghi Mesbah-Yazdi, Ahmad Jannati and Mohammad Yazdi.

Nevertheless, the moderate minority could still play an important role in choosing the next Supreme Leader.

When Khamenei was chosen in 1989 after Khomeini’s death, the decision was taken only after elaborate backroom dealing that went far beyond a simple tally of votes in the Assembly.

There was discussion of putting together a leadership council, before a handful of top clerics in the Assembly, including Rafsanjani, pushed for the nomination of Khamenei.

Khamenei did not have the appropriate religious rank to hold the position at the time, so the constitution was amended to allow him to take his post. Similar dealing may take place in order to choose Khamenei’s successor.

“Shiite clerics are really masters of the art of the deal,” said Hadi Ghaemi, executive director of the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, a U.S.-based organization that has criticized the widespread disqualification of candidates.

“So while it is important how big your faction is in the Assembly of Experts it does depend on who the charismatic deal-maker is at that time.”

In December, Rafsanjani broke a taboo by noting that a group had been formed within the Assembly to review possible candidates who could replace Khamenei.

Moderate politicians and others have complained about the disqualifications by the Guardian Council, arguing that they skew the electoral field in favor of hard-liners.

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Rafsanjani publicly criticized the disqualification of Hassan Khomeini. And 296 university professors from around the country signed a letter of protest to Rouhani over widespread disqualifications for both the parliament and Assembly election.

Hard-liners say the complaints are unfounded and stem from a realization among moderates that they will not win a majority of seats in the Assembly.

“The reformists are more focused on eliminating Mesbah-Yazdi, Jannati and Yazdi from the election than gaining a majority,” Amir Mohebian, a conservative Tehran- based political strategist and analyst who has advised top Iranian politicians, wrote in an email, referring to the top conservative candidates.

Still, there is an acknowledgement of the high stakes.

“The hard-liners are very anxious about succession and the future direction of the country,” said Sanam Vakil, an associate fellow at Chatham House who focuses on Iranian affairs. “The hard-line objective is to prevent any social or political liberalization within the state.”

Behind the Assembly’s decision there will be other groups looking to influence the choice, none more so than the Revolutionary Guard, who have gained military, political and economic power under Khamenei and will want to ensure that is not threatened by his successor.

“There are powers that are bigger and more important that are outside the Assembly,”

said Saeed Leylaz, a Tehran-based political analyst who worked as an advisor to former president Mohammad Khatami, referring to the Revolutionary Guard. “These powers will have a bigger say in who becomes the next Supreme Leader than the Assembly itself.”

What remains to be seen is whether the moderates can negotiate with a hard-line majority within the Assembly, or whether the conservatives can consolidate their support for a candidate.

“There will either be a majority leaning toward one person or a very strong deal- maker who can even sway his opponents,” said Ghaemi.