OECD composite leading indicators point to a continued loss of momentum in most major economies

Paris, 13 September 2012 OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release

OECD composite leading indicators point to a continued loss of momentum in most major economies

Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, show that the loss of momentum is likely to persist in the coming quarters in most major OECD and non-OECD economies.

In Italy, China, India and Russia the CLIs continue to point to a slowdown. For the Euro Area, France, and Germany the CLIs point to continued weak growth.

The CLIs for Japan and the United States show signs of moderating growth above trend, while in Canada the CLI continues to point to growth moderating below trend.

The CLIs for the United Kingdom and Brazil tentatively point to a pick-up in growth, but remain below trend.

The OECD Development Centre's Asian Business Cycle Indicators (ABCIs) suggest that ASEAN economies show overall resilience, though some signs of weakening are observed (Read more)

Moderating growth above trend in the OECD area Slowdown in China

92 94 96 98 100 102 104

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Moderating growth above trend in the United States Continued weak growth in the Euro area

92 94 96 98 100 102 104

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

92 94 96 98 100 102 104

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

The above graphs show country specific composite leading indicators (CLIs). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to long-term trend by approximately six months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the long-term trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional turning-points that may be reversed.

Methodological Notes:

The CLI methodological notes are available at: www.oecd.org/std/leadingindicatorsandtendencysurveys/44728410.pdf The OECD Development Centre’s ABCIs are available at: www.oecd.org/dev/asiapacific/abcis

Access data:

CLI data is available at: http://stats.oecd.org/wbos/default.aspx?datasetcode=MEI_CLI

Contacts:

For further information journalists are invited to contact the OECD's Media Relations Division on (33) 1 45 24 97 00 or e-mail [email protected].

For technical questions contact [email protected]

Next release: 8 October 2012

Paris, 13 September 2012 OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release Moderating growth above trend in Japan Continued weak growth in France

92 94 96 98 100 102 104

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

92 94 96 98 100 102 104

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Continued weak growth in Germany Slowdown in Italy

92 94 96 98 100 102 104

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

92 94 96 98 100 102 104

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Tentative signs of pick up in growth

in the United Kingdom Tentative signs of pick up in growth in Brazil

92 94 96 98 100 102 104

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Moderating growth below trend in Canada Slowdown in India

92 94 96 98 100 102 104

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

92 94 96 98 100 102 104

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Slowdown in Russia

8688 9092 9496 10098 102104 106108

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

The graphs show country specific composite leading indicators

(CLIs). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in

economic activity relative to long-term trend by approximately

six months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the long-term

trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed

turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional

turning-points that may be reversed.

Paris, 13 September 2012 OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release

Table 1: Composite Leading Indicators**

Ratio to trend, amplitude

adjusted Month on Month change Year on

Year change

Growth cycle outlook

(long term average =100) (%) (%)

2012 2012 Latest

month

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Mar Apr May Jun Jul

OECD Area

100.4 100.4 100.3 100.3 100.2 0.04 0.00 -0.03 -0.05 -0.05 -0.14 moderating growth

Euro Area

99.7 99.7 99.6 99.5 99.4 -0.04 -0.06 -0.08 -0.10 -0.09 -1.45 weak growth

Major Five Asia*

99.6 99.5 99.3 99.3 99.2 -0.13 -0.14 -0.11 -0.07 -0.04 -1.01 slowdown

Major Seven

100.5 100.5 100.4 100.3 100.3 0.04 -0.02 -0.06 -0.08 -0.06 -0.17 moderating growth

Canada

99.8 99.8 99.8 99.7 99.6 0.03 -0.01 -0.06 -0.08 -0.09 -0.58 moderating growth

France

99.7 99.7 99.6 99.6 99.6 -0.05 -0.04 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -1.03 weak growth

Japan

100.8 100.8 100.7 100.5 100.4 0.01 -0.06 -0.12 -0.15 -0.15 -0.03 moderating growth

Germany

99.7 99.7 99.5 99.3 99.1 0.00 -0.07 -0.15 -0.22 -0.25 -2.09 weak growth

Italy

99.3 99.1 99.0 98.9 98.8 -0.19 -0.18 -0.15 -0.10 -0.06 -2.43 slowdown

United Kingdom

99.6 99.7 99.7 99.9 100.0 0.10 0.08 0.08 0.12 0.17 -0.47 growth picking up

United States

100.9 101.0 100.9 100.9 100.8 0.08 0.01 -0.04 -0.06 -0.04 0.66 moderating growth

Brazil

98.7 98.9 99.0 99.2 99.4 0.25 0.21 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.11 growth picking up

China

99.6 99.4 99.2 99.1 99.1 -0.20 -0.21 -0.15 -0.08 -0.04 -1.77 slowdown

India

98.3 98.2 98.1 98.1 98.1 -0.16 -0.14 -0.07 -0.02 0.00 -0.72 slowdown

Russia

101.5 100.9 100.2 99.6 99.1 -0.33 -0.57 -0.68 -0.64 -0.47 -2.70 slowdown

* China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Korea.

**CLI data for 33 OECD member countries and 6 OECD non-member economies are available at:

http://stats.oecd.org/wbos/default.aspx?datasetcode=MEI_CLI