Paris, 14 January 2013 OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release
Composite leading indicators point to stabilising economic growth in most major economies
Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning-points in economic activity relative to trend, show signs of stabilising economic outlook in most major economies.
In the United States and the United Kingdom, the CLI continues to point to economic growth firming. In China and India, signs of a turning point are more marked than in last month’s assessment.
The CLIs for Italy, Germany, France and the Euro Area as a whole point to a stabilisation in growth prospects. Likewise, in Brazil and Japan, tentative signs of stabilising growth are emerging.
On the other hand, the CLIs for Canada and Russia continue to signal weak growth prospects.
Growth firming in the OECD area Tentative signs of a turning point in China
92 94 96 98 100 102 104
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Growth firming in the United States Stabilising growth in the Euro area
92 94 96 98 100 102 104
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
92 94 96 98 100 102 104
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
The above graphs show country specific composite leading indicators (CLIs). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to long-term trend by approximately six months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the long-term trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional turning-points that may be reversed.
Methodological Notes:
The CLI methodological notes are available at: www.oecd.org/std/leadingindicatorsandtendencysurveys/44728410.pdf Watch our video explaining the CLIs: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=UY8iPW0GVAo Access data:
CLI data is available at: http://stats.oecd.org/wbos/default.aspx?datasetcode=MEI_CLI
Contacts:
For further information journalists are invited to contact the OECD's Media Relations Division on (33) 1 45 24 97 00 or e-mail [email protected].
For technical questions contact [email protected]
Next release: 11 February 2013
Paris, 14 January 2013 OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release Stabilising growth in Japan Stabilising growth in France
92 94 96 98 100 102 104
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
92 94 96 98 100 102 104
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Stabilising growth in Germany Stabilising growth in Italy
92 94 96 98 100 102 104
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
92 94 96 98 100 102 104
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Growth firming in the United Kingdom Stabilising growth in Brazil
92 94 96 98 100 102 104
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Weak growth in Canada Tentative signs of a turning point in India
92 94 96 98 100 102 104
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
92 94 96 98 100 102 104
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Weak growth in Russia
88 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
The graphs show country specific composite leading indicators
(CLIs). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in
economic activity relative to long-term trend by approximately
six months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the long-term
trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed
turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional
turning-points that may be reversed.
Paris, 14 January 2013 OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release
Table 1: Composite Leading Indicators**
Ratio to trend, amplitude
adjusted Month on Month change Year on
Year change
Growth cycle outlook
(long term average =100) (%) (%)
2012 2012 Latest
month
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
OECD Area
100.1 100.1 100.1 100.2 100.2 -0.06 -0.03 0.01 0.04 0.06 0.17 growth firmingEuro Area
99.5 99.4 99.4 99.4 99.5 -0.10 -0.08 -0.04 0.01 0.06 -0.55 stabilising growthMajor Five Asia*
99.2 99.2 99.2 99.3 99.5 -0.08 -0.02 0.05 0.12 0.15 -0.64 stabilising growthMajor Seven
100.2 100.2 100.2 100.3 100.4 -0.06 -0.01 0.04 0.07 0.08 0.27 growth firmingCanada
99.8 99.7 99.6 99.5 99.4 -0.07 -0.07 -0.08 -0.09 -0.09 -0.37 weak growthFrance
99.6 99.5 99.5 99.5 99.5 -0.07 -0.07 -0.06 -0.03 0.02 -0.68 stabilising growthJapan
100.3 100.2 100.2 100.2 100.2 -0.11 -0.08 -0.05 -0.01 0.00 -0.25 stabilising growthGermany
99.2 99.0 98.9 98.8 98.9 -0.25 -0.20 -0.13 -0.03 0.07 -1.02 stabilising growthItaly
99.0 98.9 99.0 99.0 99.1 -0.06 -0.02 0.02 0.05 0.09 -1.25 stabilising growthUnited Kingdom
99.8 100.0 100.2 100.5 100.7 0.17 0.19 0.22 0.23 0.20 1.50 growth firmingUnited States
100.6 100.6 100.7 100.8 101.0 -0.03 0.03 0.10 0.12 0.11 0.87 growth firmingBrazil
99.3 99.3 99.3 99.3 99.3 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.97 stabilising growthChina
99.3 99.3 99.4 99.5 99.7 -0.04 0.03 0.08 0.16 0.21 -0.80 tentative turningpoint
India
97.7 97.6 97.6 97.8 97.9 -0.22 -0.13 0.03 0.13 0.14 -1.33 tentative turningpoint
Russia
99.7 99.4 99.1 98.8 98.6 -0.49 -0.33 -0.27 -0.25 -0.23 -3.61 weak growth* China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Korea.
**CLI data for 33 OECD member countries and 6 OECD non-member economies are available at:
http://stats.oecd.org/wbos/default.aspx?datasetcode=MEI_CLI
