Recent labour market developments and Recent labour market developments and
policy challenges
Stefano Scarpetta, Deputy Director Deputy Director
OECD Employment, Labour and Social Affairs
Council
18-19 January 2012
The unemployment impact has differed greatly across countries
Unemployment rate before the crisis, at its peak and its latest value* in percentage of total labour force, quarterly data
18 20 22 24
Pre-cris trough Peak Latest
8 10 12 14 16 18
0 2 4 6
Countries are shown in ascending order by the unemployment rate at its peak.
* Trough (peak) dates are defined as the start of the longest spell of consecutive increase (decrease) of the quarterly OECD harmonised unemployment rates since 2006 Q1.
Source: OECD calculations based on OECD Main Economic Indicators Database.
2
Unemployment is expected to remain high for an extended period
Unemployment rate in 2007 Q1 to 2013 Q4, percentage of total labour force, quarterly data
11
12
OECD Euro area France Germany Japan United States
Projections
7 8 9 10
4 5 6 7
Source: OECD Economic Outlook No. 90 Database.
3 2007
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
3
Youth have been hit especially hard during the crisis
Youth (15-24/16-24) unemployment rate before the crisis, at its peak and its latest value* in percentage of youth labour force, quarterly data
45 50 55
Pre-crisis trough Peak Latest
20 25 30 35 40
0 5 10 15
Countries are shown in ascending order by the youth unemployment rate at its peak.
* Trough (peak) dates are defined as the start of the longest spell of consecutive increase (decrease) of the quarterly OECD harmonised unemployment rates since 2006 Q1.
Source: OECD calculations based on the Short-term indicators from Eurostat and national labour force surveys.
4
NEET rates in OECD countries, 2008 Q1-2011 Q1
Percentage of population aged 15-24/16-24, 2007 Q1-2011 Q1*
35 40
2007Q1 2011Q1
15 20 25 30
0 5 10
Countries are shown in ascending order by the NEET rate in 2011 Q1.
* 2007 Q4-2010 Q4 for Canada and Mexico. 2007 Q2-2011 Q2 for Australia. OECD is the unweighted of countries shown.
Source: OECD estimates based on national labour force surveys.
