KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE www.keei.re.kr
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국제 신재생에너지 정책변화 및 시장분석
기본 연구 보고서
14-36
국제 신재생에너지 정책변화 및 시장분석
KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE www.keei.re.kr
박 정 순
국제 신재생에너지 정책변화 및 시장분석
기본 연구 보고서
14-36
ኒᄥᄨఐሰ
⮮ጪ㈃ⵂⵎ# =# ⛞ⵂ⮮ጪⳂⲎ# # ⇓ⷓ⟚
⮮ጪㇶ⮪ⵎ# =# # # # # # ⮮ጪⳂⲎ# ❊⾂⮿
⮮ጪⳂⲎ# ⴲ㉞Ⱨ
⮮ጪⳂⲎ# ⬆⽾Ⱳ Ⳃ㋇⮮ጪⲎ# ⛯⽾⮿
Ⳃ㋇⮮ጪⲎ# Ⳣ⛶⾂
Ⳃ㋇⮮ጪⲎ# ⊲↶
᧞J
᧞
ᩑǍ⦥ᖒၰ༊ᱢ
ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ӣᏽ᫊ᾓὢ⹃૮ఆંϮẢᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ંᶾ
ࣶ↮ᴶᓢ, ؞⺲ᒮ⹂૮Ἷ, ⨚ ӎẗ▊, Ꮶ྆؞ᨎ᫊ᾓ⹃ᓢᶾ
Ẃⵊ૮ᴶἪ၊ᕮϯఆӎὶ.
ᤦҲᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ӣἮ⣊ᵿӿ ⱻဓ ᐂὢḒϮ᪒ᅪἪ၊
⽶↋Ϯⵆં▂ᤦᅪᓢὢӎὶ. 1990 2013ल؞ϲᷞ⮷ӣ
↋ϮἮ⣊ᵿӿ45.5%, ⱻဓ22.9%, ᐂὢḒϮ᪒11.9%ᅪ؞။ⵆᷮ.
ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ᢞᶳἮῲ⺲ᐗᷞӮ⺖Ӫ(ᾚ, ᕮⱶ, ⁞, Ѣᤒ, ᐊῲ
)ᅪ⦣ⵢᕮϮϮ♆ᏽὪᆚ▊ᶾ؞ᷚலϮ⡞⪧⇃ἲЄં.
՛ࢢᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ᢞᶳⵊᾓἮ⺖Ӫ`ὦ؞ᨎЊᐊ, ᓢ
⹃૮, ᢞᶳ⹂ ЊᐊἲⴲẂ၊ⵊ.
՛ࢢᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ ἮᷚѢᒮ⹂ᶾᤊⵣ؞ᨎ՛ᢞ⹂, ؞ᨎ
ᢞᶳ⹂, ↮Ế⺖⹂, ⵢṦᢚᶳ↲▊૮ᵿⵊӪ ᶾ૧ቢ ⵆӎὶ. ὢᶾഞཪ՛ ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ ᏽ᫊ᾓேⶓᶾӮⵊ
ᓢᨆẂᏽẂὢୂẟ⛒↮ӎὶ.
ᓦᷞ՚ંⵢṦ؞Ӯᐊϲጪ, ՛ࢢ ṦῲጦϮऒ⪦Ẻ⡚ἲ⦣ⵢ՛
ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮᫊ᾓᏽ ேⶓἲᫎ⽶⫺ᴳⵆӎ, ՛ࢢ ⷲᴶ
ⵢҞᶾἎẗⵊ᫊ᢚ῾ல▊ἲኗ`Ἢ၊ⵊ.
ᓦᷞ՚ંⵢṦேⶓᕲᤋἲ⦣ⵆᷚᨆఆᶶἪIEA, ᘂღᑲצ
ⵢṦῲጦ؞Ӯᐊϲጪἲ⹊ẗⵆᷮ. ᷞ՚૮Ἦ⣊ᵿӿ, ⱻဓ, ᐂὢḒᷞႺᶾ⓶῾ἲాᶶ.
JJ
ᓦᷞ՚ંேⶓ, ᫊ᾓ, ⨚, Ἢ၊՚ఆᶶ. ᤊ၎ᶾὢᶢ
2ᾓἮ՛ ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ேⶓἲᨆⷲ⹗ᏽῲᇋἲἪ၊ზӎ
ὶ. 3ᾓἮ՛ ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮᫊ᾓἲ⣊ᵿӿ, ⱻဓ, ᐂὢḒẾᒲ
၊Ѯ⦎ⵆᷮ. 4ᾓἮ՛ ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮⨚ᅪẾᒲ၊ზᶶ.
5ᾓἮ՛ ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ ἲᫎᾚᣋῲဓ, ᫎᾚᣋᷢᶾࣶ↮, ᫎᾚ ᣋᨆᦏᷞႺᕲᵪ၊ࢆ৲ᶢѮ⦎ⵆᷮ. 6ᾓἮᵌᤊѮ⦎ⵊ
ᏽ᫊ᾓேⶓἲ⦎૮၊ῲྣ`᫊ᢚ῾ἲல▊ⵆᷮ.
ǎᱽᝁᰍᔾᨱթḡ࠺⨆
ԧপծ୍٪ׂ෮จ
ᤦҲὪ␖ᶾࣶ↮ӣ⹂ᤋᷞႺ῾ἎἮ80% ὢὦᐆቢ, ᫎ ᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ᘲἮ13.2%ᶾᕶӪⵆ. ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮૮ᕮᕲἮ‘ᐂὢ Ḓᏽ⮾؞ጪ’၊ᤊЊல՛ᶾᤊࢊᐗẗӪ◖ᢚẗἪ၊ᢚẗఆંᾚ྆᫋
ᷞႺὢ(2012ल).
ᤦҲᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ӣ↋ϮἮ2.1%၊Ὢ␖ᶾࣶ↮ӣ↋Ϯ
1.9%ᓢঀ(ᷞ⮷, 1990 2012ल). ⪧⽶⣊ᵿӿӪⱻဓӣ
↋ϮἮϯϯ46.8%, 24.9%၊ঀἮᐆቢ, Ὢ␖ᶾࣶ↮ӣᶾᤊ
␖↮ⵆંᘲὢ࢜.
ᤦҲ ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ ┋ӣ պᷛᒲ ῾ἎἮ ᘲOECD 74.5%, OECD 25.4%၊ᘲOECD պᷛὢୂ⡚. ᘲOECD պᷛᫎᾚᣋᶾ
ࣶ↮ӣἮ૮Њᘲᶳẗᾚ྆᫋ӎ⒢ᐂὢḒᷞႺὢ. ᐆቢ, OECD պᷛᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ӣἮ⃪၊⣊ᵿӿ, ⱻဓ, ⁞ဓ, ᫎᾚᣋல᫊⮾
؞ጪ, ᐂὢḒϮ᪒, ᵏ⒢ᐂὢḒᷞႺⷲ૮᫋ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮Ϯ69.4%
၊⃪ἲὢზӎὶ.
᧞JJJ
ي0&$%୍٪ׂ෮จ
ⷲ૮᫋ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮Њᐊ ᓢἮOECD պᷛ՛Ϯᶾⵆᷚ
⃪லఆӎὶ. 2013लOECD ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮῾ἎἮ8.8%၊1990 लὢ⺲╊ӎ♆ᅪ؞။ⵆӎὶ.
OECD ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ӣ↋ϮἮ2.4%, ᾚ྆᫋ᶾࣶ↮(ᤋ⢲ ᤋ Ἆ Ếဓ) ӣ↋ϮἮ0.6%၊, ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ӣ↋Ϯல Ϯ ୂ ᙎᅢ(ᷞ⮷, 1990 2013ल). ⪧⽶ ᵏ⒢ᐂὢḒᷞႺ(47.5%),
⣊ᵿӿ(45.5%), ⱻဓ(22.9%), ᐂὢḒϮ᪒(11.9%) ὢᙎᅦ↋Ϯᤦᅪ
ᓢᷮἪࢆ, ⷲᾚὪ␖ᶾࣶ↮ӣᶾᤊ῾ⵆંᘲἮ2.6%ᶾᕶӪⵆ.
2013लᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮῾ἎἮOECD Ἆὢ12.5%၊Ϯᾓঀӎ, OECD Ꮶ⃪Ϯ7.9%၊ᷛ૮╊ӎᨆ⃮ἲ؞။ⵆᷮἪ, OECD ᴲ᫊
ᴲ ḒᤦᴲશᴲϮ4.0%၊1990ल૮ᘲ⡞ᒮ⹂Ϯᶴ.
2013ल OECD ᫎᾚᣋῲဓἮ ┋ᐊῲྷ 21.1%ᅪ ῾ⵆӎ ὶ.
OECD ᫎᾚᣋῲဓӣẾᒲ῾Ἆᒮ⹂ંӎ⒢ᐂὢḒᷞႺ67.0%
19.6%, ↮ᷢ20.3% 5.2%, ⱻဓ2.7% 50.9%, ⣊ᵿӿ0.0%
8.2%, ᐂὢḒϮ᪒2.6% 7.3%၊ⷲ૮᫋ᫎᾚᣋῲဓᘲὢ⡚Ѻ
↋Ϯⵆᷮ(1990 2013ल, ᨆဓ Ṧ).
OECD ᫎᾚᣋῲဓӣ↋Ϯં⃪၊Ἆᶾⵆ⃪ᷚலఆӎὶἪ
, 2013लⷲᾚOECD ῲ⒢ᫎᾚᣋῲဓӣϮẢ46.6%(1990 ल35.2%)ᅪ῾ⵆӎὶ.
ۗপծ୍٪ׂୢ࠷
2020लغ↮ᤦҲᫎᾚᣋῲဓᣋᢞἮᷞ⮷5.4% ↋Ϯⵆӎ, ᫎᾚᣋ ῲဓᣋᢞ↋Ϯ37%ંᨆဓ, 31%ંἏⱻဓὢ␖↮ⵎῲᇋὢ.
JW
՛Ἦᫎᾚᣋῲဓӣὢᷞ⮷8.8% ᾓⵆӎᨆဓ, Ἇⱻဓ, ⣊ ᵿӿ, ᐂὢḒ૮ᕮᕲᫎᾚᣋῲဓᣋᢞ↋Ϯᅪ⃪லⵎѱἪ၊᷶
ఊ. ᷯ՛ἮἏⱻဓ, Ꮶ՛Ἦ⣊ᵿᷢ, ὦலऒ᫊ᴲં↮ᷢᐊῲἲ
⃪லⵎѱἪ၊ῲᇋఊ(IEA).
ǎᱽᝁᰍᔾᨱթḡᰆ
ԧઑֈ
Ἆ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲ᫊ᾓᶾᤊ╊תᕮϯఆંὢ᩶ં⣊ᵿӿᐊῲӪᤦ▂
↲४ὢ. ளὪҫẞ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲFIT ᾚẾἲ⹃ᓢⵆ؞ỲⵢὪᐆ
ῲ؞ᢚẗᶾѺ6.24Ἆ၊ᤪ⪦/kWhᅪᕮӪⵆӎὶ. ὢѱὢῲ؞Ẃ
ὦẾὦὢఆӎὶᶢ ᕮંϮẗ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᶾ૮ⵊӪᤦᅪ▂
↲ὢ. ᪒⮆ὦலϮẗᐊῲᶾ૮ⵊӪᤦ▂↲ᒃᴶἲᶾ
ⵆં⣊ᵿӿᐊῲӪᤦலέἲె࿚४ὢ⹃૮ఎῲᇋὢ.
՛Ἦ2013लᤦҲ╊૮⣊ᵿӿ᫊ᾓἪ၊ᕮⵆᷮ. ՛ἮҲ
⦣ᷞҲ⸃⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᶾ૮ⵊFIT `ẗ, Ҳ⦣ᘲᷞҲ⸃ ᕲᢞ⸃⣊ᵿӿ ᐊῲ(6MW ὢⵆ)ᶾ૮ⵊⳲᆚᏦᶲ↮ἲ⦣ⵢ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲἲ↮Ế ⵆӎὶ. צ࿚ࢆⶓ⺲Ҳ⦣ ᵫἪ၊ὦⵢҲ⦣ᷞҲ⸃ᤒᘲᶾ૮ⵊ
FITᅪὢӎҲ⦣ᘲᷞҲ⸃ᤒᘲᶾ૮ⵊ↮ẾἲЃ⹂ⵎῲᇋὢ.
ὪᓦἮFIT(૮ኖᤒᘲ) ᏽίᷚῲဓ՚ᇒ ல(ኖᤒᘲ)ᅪ⦣ⵢ
⣊ᵿӿᐊῲἲ↮Ếⵆӎὶ. ὢᶾഞཪὪᓦ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲ᫊ᾓἮ2013 2016ल؞ϲᶾં⸦⹗, ὢ⺲᫊؞ᶾંᓢ⁞⮾↮ᶾഞᅦ᫊⹗↲
՛ቢὢ᷶ఊ.
ὦலં2013ल⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᤒᘲẗྷἲ2020लغ↮20GW၊⹃▗
ⵎҲὢ(2013ल3GW). ҫ ᾓ▂↲ᶾഞᅦῲ؞ᨆẂ↋Ϯ૮
᧞W
Ἷ, ↮ᷛῲ؞ᕮ ⵢӪ ᅪⵢҞⵆ؞Ỳⵢ१ᢷὦ↋᫊ᾓ, Ҳ
⦣ᘲᷞҲ⸃⣊ᵿӿᐊῲ↮Ế ᕮ↮Ếἲ▂↲, ⹃૮ⵎҲὢ.
Ꮶ՛Ἦ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᓢ⹃૮Ἆὦὢᵫ⹂ఆં▂ᤦᶾὶ. ᷞᐗ ᕮ ⨚ᤦᵏӣ (ITC) ⸊⣋ὢ 2016ल ὢ⺲ ▃ఆӎ, ⃪ ᕮ
ῲဓẂҲ லலέᶾᐆᐊⵆં૮ኖᐊῲᢚᶳὢᷛᦏྷἲ
ⵊⵆўࢆᕮӪἲ⇃ᨆⵎẮ↯ὲἲᓢὢӎὶ.
♎ંᏦ╊⓶၊ᐊῲᢚᶳᫎᾚᣋῲဓӣἲጢ⹂ⵆӎὢ ᅪЃ⹂ⵢ϶ѱἪ၊᷶ఊ.
ே ᕯᴲⳲᆚ♢↮ᷛᶾᤊંҫᾯέ␞ᐗ᫋⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᓢὢ⹃
૮ఆં▂ᤦᅪᓢὢӎὶ. ഞཪᤊ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᓢ⹃૮↮Ϯ
ἎᶾᤊMENA၊, ῲ⸃`ὦ ᨆὢFITᶾᤊҫᾯέ␞၊ᒮ⹂ⵎ
Ϯઓὢࢆ⢮ࢆӎὶ. ὢંҫᾯέ␞ὢ⣊ᵿӿᓢӮᆚᏽϮҗ
ᴶ ⹂ᶾୂἎᆚⵊഺጦἪ၊ᕲᤋఊ.
2030लᤦҲ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᤒᘲẗྷἮ2013ल(152GW) ૮ᘲ12ᐞὢ
↋Ϯ(1.9TW)ⵎѱἪ၊ῲᇋఊ. 2030लᤦҲ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᤒᘲẗྷ
῾ἎἮᴲ᫊ᴲϮ41%၊⹃૮ఎѱἪ၊᷶ఊ(Ἆ20%). ⪧⽶
՛Ἦ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᤒᘲẗྷὢ2022लἲῲ⺲၊Ἆἲ▂Ểⵆӎ, ὦல
ં2030ल⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᤒᘲẗྷὢ2013ल૮ᘲ80ᐞᨆ⃮Ἢ၊↋Ϯⵎ
ῲᇋὢ. צҞӪ2030लᤦҲ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᤒᘲẗྷ῾ἎἮ՛
23%, ὦல11%, Ὢᓦ5%, Ἆ20%(2013ल53%), Ꮶ՛11%၊⣊ᵿ ӿᐊῲ╊૮᫊ᾓὢἎᶾᤊ՛Ἢ၊ᒮ⹂ⵎѱἪ၊᷶ఊ.
⣊ᵿӿᐊῲ᫊ᾓᶾᤊᅦẂᒮ⹂ંኖ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲ᫊ᾓ
ᾓὢ. 2030ल ᤦҲ ኖ ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲἮ૮ኖ ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲ
૮ᘲ1.6ᐞኖ၊ᾓⵎῲᇋὢ. ኖ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᓢ⹃૮
ẂὦἮḓ⸃⣊ᵿӿᐊῲҫ ⶓἪ၊, Ὢ⁞ྷὢ▗ᕲⵆӎῲ
WJ
؞ϮҗὢঀἮ↮ᷛᶾᤊંḓ⸃⣊ᵿӿᐊῲὢ؞Ϯ ẗῲဓӣ
ἲ૮⒢ⵆંⷲἲὢᏦࢆ⢮ࢢӎὶ.
ኖ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᓢ⹃૮ંᶾࣶ↮᫊ᾓᶾ૮ⵊᷯⶓẂὦ Ἢ၊ẗⵎϮઓἲࢢ⯚ⵊ. ኖ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᓢ⹃૮ંᤎ
↲՛ҫẞ؞ᶾࣶ↮ᢞᶳ՚⁞Ḯⵢᅪᵪ؞ⵎᨆὶӎ, Њல՛
ҫẞᵇ↿⸃ῲဓҲ⦣՚▃૮ᫎᆶὢ⡚၊צᆚೊંளᆫ⸃ᓣ ⵗᐊῲ᫊᪒⥊(⣊ᵿӿ+ᐞ⤞ᆚ)Ἢ၊ὢⵎϮઓἲⵖ▃ⵆӎὶ.
يණߚ
2030लᤦҲⱻဓᐊῲᤒᘲẗྷἮ1,319GW၊2013ल(319GW) ૮ᘲ
4ᐞὢᨆ⃮Ἢ၊↋Ϯⵎῲᇋὢ. Ἇⱻဓ؞ᨎἮᨇ؞↲έὢ
ὲᐃⵊᐆቢ, ⵢⱻဓἮӎ( )ᘲẗ, ῾Ἆ΅⁞Ἢ၊2030लغ↮
ᕮᓢ⁞↮ẾὢⴲẂⵎѱἪ၊᷶ఊ.
ἏⱻဓᐊῲἮⵢⱻဓᓢᐊῲẾϮҫᾯဓὢᙎᅢѺЊᤎఆᶢ
2030लⱻဓᐊῲ91%ᅪ␖↮ⵎῲᇋὢ. ἎἏⱻဓᐊῲᤒ ᘲ↋Ϯኖં2020लغ↮ᷞ⮷10~13GW ᨆ⃮ᶾὢᅪѱἪ၊᷶
ఊ. ᆺ, έ↮ᕮ , ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲӪҫᾯ⹂Ἢ၊ὦⵢ2021~
2030ल؞ϲᶾંᷞϲ7~12GW ኖ၊ూ⹂ఎῲᇋὢ.
՛Ἇⱻဓᐊῲᤒᘲ↋Ϯኖં2030लغ↮ᤦҲ╊૮ᨆ⃮
ἲὢᶢ϶ѱἪ၊᷶ఊ. ՛Ἇⱻဓᐊῲ↋ᤒྷἮ2020लغ
↮ᷞϲ17~18GW, 2030लغ↮ᷞϲ20GW၊↋Ϯ▂ᤦᅪᓢὪῲ ᇋὢ. ⪧⽶2025लὢ⺲०⺲ᤒᘲԾ⒢ᨆẂ၊ὦⵊᤒᘲ↋ᤒ⹃૮ Ϯ᷶ఊ. ՛ⱻဓᐊῲᓢ⹃૮↮↮ẂὦἮ૮ኖἏⱻဓ
ӣ⒢ὦᓢἎ, ᕮᴶ `ὦFIT ↮Ế, ࢜ἮẾϮ, ⢲ᐊᣋᶾࣶ
᧞WJJ
↮ᶾ૮ⵊᐆ૮ᷚ၎⹂, ӣ؞Ḓᷪẞဒ, ẾϮῶϾ(ᤦҲⱻဓ⤞ᘶ
40% ⁞) ὢ.
ὦலંᶾࣶ↮ᨆẂ↋ϮḮἏⱻဓϮҗⵆཫἪ၊↋ᤒலϮϮ
⹂ఎῲᇋὢ. Ἇⱻဓᐊῲᤒᘲ↋Ϯኖંⷲᾚᷞϲ2~3GWᶾ
ᕶӪⵆࢆ2020~2030लᶾંᷞϲ12GWᶾⵎѱἪ၊᷶ఊ. ே
ᴲ↮ᷛἮⱻဓᐊῲᤒᘲϮᕮ ⵊ⹗ὢࢆ, ⒊ᷞẾ, ⣊ᵿӿᏽᐂ ὢḒᇒ᪒, ↮ᷢӪϮҗҫᾯὢ⹂ఆӎὶᶢ, ⱻဓ؞ᨎᆚ᪒⡚
ᶾ૮ⵊẞဒϮᾚⵊ.
Ꮶ↮ᷛἮ╊૮ᶾࣶ↮ҫᇒ᫊ᾓ⹊⹂ᅪ⦣ⵢἏⱻဓᐊῲὢ
ᾓⵆ, ᷞϲ↋ᤒྷὢ2013ल1GWᶾᤊ2020लὢ⺲4~5GW၊⹃૮ ఎῲᇋὢ. 2030लᏦ↮ᷛἏⱻဓᐊῲᤒᘲẗྷἮ196GW၊ᕯᏦ (120GW)ᶾὢᶢ3Ỳᅪ␖↮ⵎѱἪ၊᷶ఊ.
צᐄᶾ؞⢮ᴲ᫊ᴲᏽே ᴲⳲᆚ♢↮ᷛⱻဓᐊῲἮḲᆺⵊ
ᾓᤦᅪᓢὪῲᇋὢ. ᶾࣶ↮ᨆέலϮঀӎᘲᶾࣶ↮Ϯҗᶾ
૮ⵊᕮૢὢ⛒ᤊ, ⱻဓᐊῲᤒᘲ↋ᤒẂ՚Ϯ⹃૮ఎѱἪ၊᷶ఊ
. ே↮ᷛἏⱻဓᐊῲᤒᘲ↋Ϯኖંⷲᾚᷞϲ100MW Ꮶ ᆺᨆ⃮ᶾᤊ῾␖↋Ϯⵆᷚ2030लᶾ5GWᶾⵎῲᇋὢ.
ⵢⱻဓἮϮҗⵆཫᶾலᕶ՚ⵆӎϮҗҫᾯᶾᤊல⣊ఎỲⷆὢঀ ӎ, Ἆ᫊ᾓ⃪லဓὢ↮ఎѱἪ၊ῲᇋఊ. ؞ᨎᐊῲᶾഞཪ
ⵢⱻဓἮẾϮⵆཫἲ↮ⵎѱἪ၊ᓢὢࢆ, 2030लغ↮ંἏⱻ ဓ, ⣊ᵿӿ, ⹂ᤋᷞႺᐊῲᶾᘲⵢϮҗҫᾯဓᷢỲϮ᷶ఊ.
ۗࢭଲૈ
2013लᤦҲᐂὢḒᷞႺᨆྷἮ1,166ᶣᆚ⤞၊ᤊῲल૮ᘲ7%
WJJJ
↋ϮⵆᷮἪ, ᤦҲᨆᦏᷞႺᵫ2.3%ᅪ῾ⵊ. 2013लᤦҲᶾ⢲
ḚᣋᢞྷἮ872ᶣᆚ⤞၊ῲल૮ᘲ5% ↋Ϯⵆӎ, ᐂὢḒം‒ᣋᢞ
ྷἮ263ᶣᆚ⤞၊ῲल૮ᘲ11% ↋Ϯⵆᷮ.
2013लᏦ՛Ӫᗺཪ↶ἮᤦҲᶾ⢲Ḛ┋ᣋᢞྷ87%ᅪ῾ⵆᷮ.
Ꮶ՛ᶾ⢲Ḛᣋᢞᆶ↲ᏽᣋᢞྷἮ2014ल2/4ᕲ؞ᶾ╊ӎ♆ᅪ؞။
ⵆᷮἪࢆ, 2014ल3/4ᕲ؞ᕮ⤞ᶾ⢲ḚϮҗⵆཫἪ၊ᶾ⢲Ḛᣋᢞᆶ↲ὢ Ͼⵎ ῲᇋὢ. 2014ल 2/4ᕲ؞ Ꮶ՛ ᶾ⢲Ḛ ᣋᢞ ⸪ⵗ ᆶ↲Ἦ
ϯϯ0.49࿚/ᆚ⤞, 0.08࿚/ᆚ⤞ᅪ؞။ⵆᷮ. 2014ल1/4-2/4ᕲ؞
ᶾ⢲ḚᣋᢞྷἮ261ᶣᆚ⤞၊2013लே؞૮ᘲ9% આᶢ࢚Ἢ, 2014ल ᶾ⢲Ḛ⸪ⵗྷἮϮᦂᆞᨆẂ↋Ϯ၊ῲलᓢ↋Ϯⵊ503ᶣᆚ⤞
ϮఎѱἪ၊ῲᇋఊ(2013ल495ᶣᆚ⤞).
Ꮶ՛2014ल2/4ᕲ؞ᐂὢḒം‒ᣋᢞᆶ↲Ἦ⮷0.17࿚/ᆚ⤞
ᷮἪ, 2014ल3/4ᕲ؞ὢ⺲⮷0.26࿚/ᆚ⤞၊↋Ϯⵎῲᇋὢ.
2014ल2/4ᕲ؞Ꮶ՛ᐂὢḒം‒ᣋᢞἮ17ᶣᆚ⤞၊ῲᕲ؞(13ᶣ
ᆚ⤞)ᓢ↋Ϯⵆᷮ. RFS2 ᶾⵢⵢ૧ᢚᶳંᐂὢḒം‒
⸪ⵗ(В ૧ 1.5 ⡚ം⪦ ೋ)ⵆўࢆ ᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ὦ↋⡚ം⪦
(RINs)ἲ՚έⵢᵪⵆં, 2014ल2/4ᕲ؞ંᐂὢḒം‒⸪ⵗὢἎ ᆚѱἪ၊⮷Ϯఊ.
2013लᗺཪ↶ᶾ⢲ḚᣋᢞྷἮ280ᶣᆚ⤞ὢὢ118ᶣᆚ
⤞Ϯ ጢᨆᶾ⢲Ḛὢ. ᶾ⢲Ḛ⸪ⵗ⼆ᐊἎ ՚ᇒጢ லⵆᶾᤊ ⼆ᐊἎ
ᨆẂ↋ϮϮᶾ⢲Ḛᣋᢞ↋ϮẂὦὢఆᶶ. 2014लጢᨆᶾ⢲ḚӪ
ᨆᶾ⢲Ḛ╊૮ᣋᢞྷἮϯϯ125ᶣ, 170ᶣᆚ⤞ᶾὢᅪῲᇋὢ
. 2014ल2/4ᕲ؞ጢᨆᶾ⢲Ḛᣋᢞᆶ↲Ἦ⮷0.07࿚/ᆚ⤞ᷮἪ
ࢆ, 2014लⵆᐆ؞ᾚӎ ӣ↋Ϯ၊ὦⵢጢᨆᶾ⢲Ḛᆶ↲ⷲ΅ⵊ
ϾϮ᷶ఊ.
᧞JY
Ἆᶾ⢲Ḛᣋᢞᆶ↲Ἦ2014ल2/4ᕲ؞⮷0.30࿚/ᆚ⤞၊
ῲᕲ؞૮ᘲ3.5% ↋ϮⵆᷮἪࢆ, 2014ल3/4ᕲ؞ᕮ⤞0.25࿚/ᆚ⤞
၊࢜ᴲ↶ῲᇋὢ. 2014ल2/4ᕲ؞ᶾ⢲Ḛ⸪ⵗᆶ↲Ἦ⮷0.12
࿚/ᆚ⤞ᷮἪࢆ, 2014ल3/4ᕲ؞ᶾં⮷0.13࿚/ᆚ⤞၊8.3% ↋Ϯ ⵎѱἪ၊᷶ఊ.
Ἆ2014ल2/4ᕲ؞ᐂὢḒം‒ᣋᢞᆶ↲Ἦ0.25࿚/ᆚ⤞၊ῲ ᕲ؞ᓢ0.01࿚/ᆚ⤞↋ϮⵆᷮἪ, ᐂὢḒം‒⸪ⵗᆶ↲Ἦ⮷
0.05࿚/ᆚ⤞၊ῲᕲ؞⮷ 0.04࿚/ᆚ⤞ᓢᴳ⹂ఆᶶ. ᐂὢ Ḓം‒Ϯҗὢୂ࢜ᴲ↮↮ᴸંⵊᐂὢḒം‒⸪ⵗᷛᆶ↲ⷲἮ
↮ఎῲᇋὢ.
ᴲ⣊↮ᷛ2014ल2/4ᕲ؞ᶾ⢲Ḛᣋᢞᆶ↲Ἦ⮷0.64࿚/ᆚ⤞
၊ῲᕲ؞ḮேὪⵆᷮ(Ϯ⯚ᅢὦலጪ؞⃮). ᴲ⣊↮ᷛ2014ल
2/4ᕲ؞ᶾ⢲Ḛ⸪ⵗᆶ↲Ἦ 0.09࿚/ᆚ⤞၊, ῲ؞ 0.11࿚/ᆚ
⤞ᓢ ⯛ ЊᤎఆᶶἪ, 2014ल 3/4ᕲ؞ᶾં ⮷ 0.12࿚/ᆚ⤞
ᨆ⃮ὢఎѱἪ၊ῲᇋఊ.
ᴲ⣊↮ᷛ2014ल2/4ᕲ؞ᐂὢḒം‒ᣋᢞᆶ↲Ἦ0.10࿚/ᆚ⤞၊
ῲᕲ؞0.11࿚/ᆚ⤞ᓢϾⵆᷮἪ, 2014ल3/4ᕲ؞ᶾ⮷
0.13࿚/ᆚ⤞၊⸦ῲఎѱἪ၊᷶ఊ. 2014ल2/4ᕲ؞ᐂὢḒ
ം‒ ⸪ⵗ ᆶ↲Ἦ ῲᕲ؞ 0.09࿚/ᆚ⤞ᓢ ঀἮ 0.10࿚/ᆚ⤞ὢ, 2014ल3/4ᕲ؞ᶾંᵫϲ࢜Ἦ0.08࿚/ᆚ⤞ᨆ⃮Ἢ၊ῲᇋఊ.
Y
ǎᱽᝁᰍᔾᨱթḡ⚍ᯱ
ԧઑֈ
⣊ᵿӿᐊῲϮંᤒᘲẗྷ↋Ϯ, ⁞ӣ Њᤎ, ᕮⱶẾϮϾ
Ἢ၊ὦⵢⵆཫ▂ᤦᅪ↮ⵎѱἪ၊᷶ఊ. ὢᶾഞཪ2020ल
ὢ⺲⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᓢ⁞ἮఎϮઓὢঀ.
૮ኖ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᤒᘲϮં2030लغ↮ᵫ30% ⵆཫⵎѱἪ
၊ῲᇋఊ. ⃪ẂὦἮⶓ⺲ẾᾚϮҗⵆཫᶾഞᅦᤒᘲ⨚ᘲẗ
Ͼὢ. ૮ኖ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲϮ(MWh૧)ં2013लⷲᾚ100~180
࿚, Ἆ140~180࿚, Ꮶ՛100~140 ࿚, ՛100~170࿚ᨆ
⃮ὢ.
ኖ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᤒᘲϮં2014ल100~330࿚/MWhᶾᤊ2025ल 60~210࿚/MWh၊ᵫ40% ⵆཫⵎѱἪ၊᷶ఊ. ⃪ẂὦἮ
ኖ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᤒᘲኖಶẾϮῶϾ(ҫ ⶓ), ӣϲҫᾯဓ
⹂(᫊ᾓ♖⨚⺖Ӫ) ὢ.
2013~2026ल؞ϲᤦҲ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲ⨚ኖં1.8⁞࿚၊,
ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ῲ⒢⨚38%ᅪ␖↮ⵎῲᇋὢ. ⷲᾚঀѺᤒ ఊ
⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᤒᘲϮҗὢⶓ⺲ӮဖᘲẗⵆཫӪⵖۆ࢜ᴲ↮ቢᤊ
ኖ⣊ᵿӿᤒᘲᶾ૮ⵊ⨚Ϯ⹃૮ఎѱἪ၊ᓢὦ. ⣊ᵿӿᤒᘲ
⨚ᵏ2/3(ᵫ1.3⁞࿚)Ϯḓ⸃⣊ᵿӿⳲ၊⪦ᶾ⨚έఎѱ Ἢ၊᷶ఊ.
يණߚ
Ἇ ⵢⱻဓᐊῲϮં⹂ဓᐊῲϮᓢঀἮᨆ⃮ὢࢆ, 2025ल
᧞YJ
ὢ⺲ϮҗҫᾯဓὢᙎᅢѺЃ⹂ఎῲᇋὢ. ϮҗҫᾯဓὢঀἮἏⱻ ဓҫẞல2013लᐊῲϮϮᵫ60~120࿚/MWh ᨆ⃮ὢ. צ࿚ࢆ
ᗺཪ↶Ὢᕮ↮ᷛⱻဓᐊῲҫᇒᅪ⦣ⵢἏⱻဓὢ⹂ဓᐊῲ૮ᘲ
ϮҗҫᾯဓẞỲᅪࢆ⢮ࢆӎὶ.
ⱻဓᐊῲἮ2030लغ↮؞ᨎЊᐊ, Ảᷯ ᾚጢᘲẗⵆཫ, ᕮ↮Ế
ἲ⦣ⵢϮҗⵆཫᤦϮ↮ఎϮઓὢঀ. צ࿚ࢆⵢⱻဓἮ⢮
؞ᨎ૮ᘲҫᾯဓὢᏦ⽏ⵆᷚᓢ⁞↮Ếὢ↮ఆᶢᵪⵎѱἪ၊ᓢ ὦ.
ⱻဓᐊῲᤒᘲ⃪Ẃᕮⱶὦ؞ᶢᐃ᪒Ḯᘂὢೊ᫊ᾓኖં
2030लᶾ180ᶣ࿚၊⹃૮ఎῲᇋὢ. Ἇⱻဓᕮⱶ᫊ᾓἮ2013 ल635ᶣ࿚ᶾᤊ2030ल832ᶣ࿚ኖ၊30% ὢᾓὢ᷶
ఊ. ὢϮẢⱻဓ⤞ᘶӪ⃪ᒮ؞؞⨚Ϯ69%ᅪ␖↮ⵎѱἪ
၊ῲᇋఊ(2014लⷲᾚ⤞ᘶϮҗἮῲ⒢⨚73%).
Ἇⱻဓ ⤞ᘶ ᕮⱶ ૮ᕮᕲἮϮҗҫᾯဓὢЃ⹂ఆӎ ⺖ὢ
ⶓఆᶶἪࢆ, ⢮Ẻ, ၊⤞, ؞ᶢᐃ᪒ҫẞᢚὢⅶϮ⹃૮ఆᶢⶓ⺲ҫ
ྷ⹂, ኖಶ⹂ἲ⦣ⵊ↮`ὦẾϮῶϾ०ဓὢẂ՚ఆӎὶ. ⵊ
⮦, ኖશ⤞, ᶢ᫊᪒⥊▂ϮἪ၊⤞ᘶῲᾓ⹂ⷲὢϮ⹂ఆᶢ, ὢં⤞ᘶϮҗᓢẢᷯᘲẗ↋૮ẂὦἪ၊ẗⵆӎὶ. ⶓ⺲⤞ᘶ
ῲ⹂၊2030लᶾંῲᕮⱶᏽ ᶢ᫊᪒⥊ὢⱻဓᐊῲẾϮ
13%ᅪ῾ⵎѱἪ၊᷶ఊ.
Ἇⱻဓᕮⱶ⃪ẂӣંEnercon(ளὪ)ӪGoldwind(՛)၊
ᤊ, ὢὢ⤞ᘶ᫊ᾓ15~20%ᅪ῾Ἆⵆೊཪὢᗺ؞ᨎ૮ᕮᕲἲ
ᓢἎⵆӎὶં, ὢ⹗Ἦ2030लغ↮↮ఎῲᇋὢ.
ⵢⱻဓᕮⱶ᫊ᾓἮ2013ल113ᶣ࿚ᶾᤊ2030ल329ᶣ࿚၊
190% ὢᾓⵎῲᇋὢ. ὢϮẢ⤞ᘶϮ♆ં37%ᶾὢᅪѱ
YJJ
Ἢ၊᷶ఊ. ⵢ⤞ᘶϮ♆ંẾϮῶϾᕮ Ἢ၊ὦⵢ2020लغ↮
ᪧⵆϮὢ⺲2030लغ↮ᴶ `ὦᨆ⃮ἲἎ↮ⵎῲᇋὢ. 2030 लᶾંⵆὢᗺᆚೊೊཪὢᗺ⤞ᘶὢⵢ⤞ᘶ᫊ᾓ60%ᅪᾓᴳⵆ ѺఎѱἪ၊᷶ఊ.
2013~2026ल؞ϲᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮⨚30%ὦ1.6⁞࿚Ϯⱻ ဓᐊῲᤒᘲᶾἎέఎῲᇋὢ. ே؞ϲᷞ⮷⨚ኖં1,040 ᶣ࿚ᶾὢᅢ, ┋⨚ኖ71%ϮἏⱻဓⳲ၊⪦ᶾ⨚έఎ
ѱἪ၊᷶ఊ. ᐆቢ, ⵢⱻဓᤒᘲંϮҗҫᾯဓᶾ◖ᵫⵆ؞ഺ ጦᶾ┋⨚29%, ᫎ↋ᤒ9%ᶾᕶӪⵎѱἪ၊ᓢὦ.
↮ᷛᒲ၊ંἎӪ՛ὢᤦҲᫎ⨚ῶᐆὢἲ␖↮ⵎѱ Ἢ၊᷶ఊ. Ἇⱻဓ⨚ᵏἮ՛240ᶣ࿚, Ἆ180ᶣ࿚
၊ᤦҲᷞϲᫎ⨚ᵏῶᐆὢὢ՛ӪἎᶾ⨚έఎῲᇋ ὢ. Ἇⱻဓ⨚৲`ᵏἮ2013 2026ल؞ϲ՛3,340ᶣ
࿚, Ἆ2,500ᶣ࿚, Ꮶ՛990ᶣ࿚၊᷶ఊ. ⵢⱻဓ⨚
ᵏἮἎὢᷞϲ210ᶣ࿚, ՛ὢᷞϲ75ᶣ࿚ᨆ⃮Ἢ၊, ⵢ
ⱻဓ⨚৲`ᵏἮ՛1,050ᶣ࿚, Ἆ2,960ᶣ࿚ᶾὢ ᅪѱἪ၊ῲᇋఊ.
ۗࢭଲૈ
ᤦҲ2014ल2/4ᕲ؞ᐂὢḒᷞႺ⨚ંῲᕲ؞૮ᘲ21% ↋Ϯⵆ
ᷮ. ┋⨚ᵏ53%ં1ᤦ૮ᐂὢḒᶾ⢲Ḛ, 46%ં␖ᤦ૮ᐂὢḒ ᶾ⢲Ḛᶾ⨚ఆᶶ. ᶾ⢲Ḛ⨚ᵏἮ485ᐟᆺ࿚၊1ᤦ૮ᶾ⢲Ḛ
ᤒᘲ⹃ᾓ(ᴲ᫊ᴲ↮ᷛ), ᶾ⢲ḚϮ᪒⹂⳺ྙ⯪(Ꮶ՛) ᶾ⨚έఆᶶἪ
, ே؞ϲᐂὢḒം‒⨚ᵏἮ343ᐟᆺ࿚ὢ.
᧞YJJJ
ே؞ϲᤦҲ╊૮ᤒᘲ⨚ં՛ᐂὢḒᶾ⢲ḚⳲ၊⪦၊
ᤊ, Guangdong Zhongneng AlcoholᢚϮZhanjiang ᐂὢḒᶾ⢲Ḛ⳺
ྊ⪦Ⳳ၊⪦ᅪỲⵢ156ᐟᆺ࿚ᅪ⨚ⵆᷮ. ேⳲ၊⪦ં♢
ᢚᐂᅪẾႺᅪᢚẗⵆ, 2015ल9Ể᫊ⷆϮேᶾᶢ϶᷶ ὢ.
ǎᱽᝁᰍᔾᨱթḡᱶ₦
ԧ୍ୢߚ୨థ࣡ฃ
ᫎᾚᣋῲဓᓢ⹃૮ᅪỲⵢ , ᾚ `Ἆὦ, ӣ`↮Ế(FIT, FIP),
ጢⵎ૧, ῲဓẂҲ ல, ᤦϾቢ, ᓢ⁞, ẞ૮ἣ, ҫᾯέ␞
ᵿⵊ ᨆὢ`ẗఆᶢṂ. ╊ת ᒮ⹂ંFIT, ῲဓẂ
Ҳ ல, ҫᾯέ␞ᶾᤊࢆ⢮ࢊ.
FIT ↮Ếἲ▃ⵆўࢆ⮾↮ⵆંҫẞં૮⒢၊᷶ᢞᕮૢҫϾ, Ҳ
⦣ ᵫἪ၊ὦⵊ૮ኖ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᓢ⹃૮ᶣ ᶾኗ`ἲా
ӎὶἪ, ὢᶾⵢ૧ⵆં՛ϮંளὪ, ὢ⢶ᆚᴲ, ⯚ᅢ⨚϶, ᪒⮆ὦ,
՛, Ὢᓦὢ.
ᐆቢ, FIT ↮Ếἲ⹃૮, Ѓ⹂ⵆંҫẞં૮⒢၊ኖ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲ
ᓢ⓷↲, ⱻဓᐊῲᓢ⓷↲, ՛ࢢ(ᷛࢢ) ᕮⱶᓢ⓷↲ᶾኗ`
ἲాӎὶἪ, ὢᶾⵢ૧ⵆં՛Ϯંୢᆶ⡚, Ⳳཿ᪒, ᴲὪྊೊ, ᷯ
՛, ՛, ὦலऒ᫊ᴲ, Ὢᓦ, ⣊՛ὢ.
ῲဓẂҲ ல(Net Metering)ᅪலέⵊ՛Ϯં43Њ՛ᶾὢᅢ, 2013लᶾ5Њ՛ὢઆᶢ࢚(צᆚ᪒, ཪ⪦ᘲᴲ, ẞ⡚ཪὢࢆ, Ḗాཪ᪒, ⴲᆚ). ୢᆶ⡚Ḯऒೊં2013लᶾῲဓẂҲ லᅪЊ ⵆ
ᷚ, ϯϯϮẗ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲ↮ẾẂѢἲЃ⹂ⵆўࢆᨆ⸊૮ἲ⹃૮ ⵆᷮ. Ꮶ՛(⚆ᆚ⯚શᴲ⃪)ἮῲဓẂҲ ல`ẗἲᷞᾓⵆӎጢ
YJW
ⵊῲဓẂҲ ல`ẗ؞ᐆἲ⹃▗ⵆᷮ.
ҫᾯέ␞`ẗ՛Ϯં2009ल9Њ՛ᶾᕶӪⵆᷮἪࢆ2014लᶾ55 Њ՛Ἢ၊↋Ϯⵆᷮ. ⪧⽶Ꮶ՛Ϯὢᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮Ӯဖᢚᶳ ἲ⹃ ⵆંҫᾯέ␞ἲ`ק⹊ẗⵆӎὶ. Ⳳཿ᪒, ὢ⢶ᆚᴲ, ० ᅢỖὢ, ᷯ՛, Ꮶ՛Ἦⱻဓᐊῲᢚᶳᶾҫᾯέ␞ἲ`ẗⵆӎὶἪ
ὢ↿⪦, ᴲӣ, ⟎Ỗὢ⪦, ὦலἮ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᢚᶳᶾҫᾯέ␞
ἲ`ẗⵆӎὶ.
ي୍વ٪୨థ
ࢷࢊᐗᕮጦἮ⹂ᤋᶾࣶ↮ᘲϾ▃ંḖϮ᪒ᐞ▊΅Ͼᾎᾚ ဓὢᇒẞ⡞ᕮጦἪ၊⮷Ϯఖᶾഞཪ, ᫎᾚᣋᷢᶾࣶ↮ᓢ⹃૮ં
ࢷࢊᐗᕮጦ⢶⹂ᤋ⹂ᶾẂⵊӪ ၊ὦ᫋ఆӎὶ. EU 28Њ
Ế՛Ἦ ࢷࢊᐗᕮጦ ᫎᾚᣋᷢᶾࣶ↮ ῾Ἆ ኗⱊᅪ லέⵆᷮἪ,
ᤦҲ`Ἢ၊ ᫎᾚᣋࢷࢊᐗ ኗⱊᅪ ᤒ ⵊ ՛ϮϮ 41Њ՛, ՛Ϯ ં
↮⒢␖Ếᶾᤊᫎᾚᣋᷢᶾࣶ↮ὢẗጢ⹂ᅪ᫊ⵆં՛Ϯં19Њ
՛ὢᶾὢᅦ.
ⵊἎ૮ᕮᕲ՛Ϯંᫎᾚᣋࢷࢊᐗ؞ᨎ⨚ᅪ⓷↲ⵆ؞Ỳ ⵆᷚ⨚ᓢ⁞ḮЇἮᾚ `Ἆὦἲ⁞ⵆӎὶ. ऒೊંᐂὢ ḒϮ᪒, ӎ⒢ᐂὢḒᇒ᪒, ᕮ↮ᷢ, ⣊ᵿᷢ ᷢᣋᢞἲ ↮Ếⵆં
؞ᨎᒲ FIP ↮Ế லᅪ லέⵆᷮ. ளὪἮ ᵿⵊ ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮Ḯ
⺖`ࢷࢊᐗ؞ᨎ(⣊ᵿᷢࢷᐗ, ᢞᶳ⮾؞ጪᷢ, ᒿⵗᐊῲ, ↮ᷛࢊᐗ) ᶾ૮ⵊὦᤪ⫞ᗺᅪ⹃૮ⵆӎ⨚ᘲẗἲὪᕮ↮Ếⵆӎὶ.
᧞YW
୍ۗ߹୨థ
ᫎᾚᣋᨆᦏᷞႺ Ἦ૮⒢၊ᐂὢḒᷞႺᣋᢞ ⸻ᓢ ᢚẗᶾ⓶
῾ἲాᶢṂἪࢆ, ╊תᶾંᾚ `ἎὦӪ ᅪᓣⵗ`ẗⵆંᢶ
၊Ả⼾ᅲἲᓢὢӎὶ. Ӯဖ ᨆἪ၊ᐂὢḒᷞႺᣋᢞᓢ⁞, ᐂὢḒᷞႺ⸪ⵗጢ, ᤦϾቢὢὶ.
⸪ⵗጢᅪ᫊ⵆં՛Ϯં2014ल⓶ⷲᾚ33Њ՛ᶾὢᅢ, 2013 लᶾலέⵊࢆཪ၊ẞ⡚ཪὢࢆ, ᶾ❞லᅢ⫺ࢆᆶὢὶ. Ꮶᶾᤊ
ંᴲᅢⷖ⫞ࢆϮ⸪ⵗጢ؞⃮ἲB7ᶾᤊB10Ἢ၊ⶓ⁞ ⵆᷮ.
ᗺཪ↶Ἦῲ՛`Ἢ၊ᶾ⢲Ḛ⸪ⵗ؞⃮ἲE20ᶾᤊE25၊Ѓ⹂ⵆӎ, ᐂ ὢḒᷞႺ⸪ⵗ؞⃮Ѓ⹂(B5 B7)ᅪѮ⦎ⵆӎὶ.
Ꮶ՛ᶾᤊં ᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ᷞႺ؞⃮ὢ ⒆ἺἪ၊ ▃ఆᶶ. ⳺၊ᆚ
⃪ંE10 ⸪ⵗጢᅪ⮾↮ⵆᷮӎ, ቂὦ⃪ંᶾ⢲Ḛ⸪ⵗ↮ᒃᴶἲ
⣋ⵆᷮἪ, ἎᶾᤊலἎᢚⵊ⸪ⵗᐆ૮४Ϯ↲ఆӎὶ.
ᩑǍđŝၰᱶ₦ᱽᨙ
╊ת՛ ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮᫊ᾓᏽ Ἦ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᓢ⹃૮Ἆ ὦϾ, ᫎᾚᣋῲဓҫᾯέ␞᫊ᾓ⹃૮, ኖ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲ᫊ᾓ⹃
૮, ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲ↮Ế⮾↮Ϯઓ↋૮, ᾚᣋᷢᶾࣶ↮ ⹃ᢞ, ᐂὢ ḒᷞႺ᫊ᾓ⹃૮, ῲဓẂҲ ல⹃ᢞ⪧⇃ἲᓢὦ.
⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᓢ⹃૮ἎὦϾંἎ, Ꮶ՛ἲ⯚ⵖⵊᨆ՛Ϯ ᶾᤊࢆ⢮ࢆӎὶ. ⒙⇦, ளὪἮ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᶾ૮ⵊFIT ᾚẾ⹃ᓢ
ᕮૢὢῲ؞ẂᪧẂὦἪ၊ẗⵖᶾഞཪ, Ϯẗ⣊ᵿӿᐊ ῲᶾ૮ⵊӪᤦᅪ▂↲ὢ. ᪒⮆ὦலϮẗᐊῲᶾ૮ⵊӪᤦ▂
↲ᒃᴶἲᶾ ⵆᷮӎ, ᅦἎ՛ϮᶾᤊலὢᶾӮⵊ४
YWJ
ὢ⹃ᢞఆӎὶ. ഞཪᤊϮẗ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᘲẗὢ↋ϮⵎѱἪ၊
ᓢὦ.
ె⇦, Ꮶ՛Ἦᷞᐗ ᕮ⨚ᤦᵏӣ (ITC) ኖᅪ2016लὢ⺲▃
ⵎᐗ♖ὢ. ⵊ૮ኖᐊῲᢚᶳἮ⃪ ᕮῲဓẂҲ லலέᶾᐆᐊⵆᷚ, ᨆẗϮᶾ૮ⵊᷛᦏྷ ⵊંᕮӪ⇃ᨆ
Ắ↯ὲἲᓢὢӎὶ. ഞཪᤊኖ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲἮῲဓ᫊ᾓ↲έ ᶾ ᵫἲᐉѺఎѱἪ၊ᓢὦ.
᤹⇦, ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᶾ૮ⵊFIT ↮Ếὢ▃ ⮾↮ఆં▂ᤦᶾὶ.
᷶ᢞᕮૢ, Ҳ⦣ ᵫἪ၊ὦⵢளὪ, ὢ⢶ᆚᴲ, ⯚ᅢ⨚϶, ᪒⮆ὦ, ՛, ὪᓦᶾᤊFIT ↮Ếὢ▃ં⮾↮ఆӎὶ. ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᘲẗ⺖
ὢⷲ΅⽶Њᤎఆ↮ᴸંⵊᓢᅎూ⹂Ϯ᷶ఊ.
थ⇦, ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲϮંᤒᘲẗྷ↋Ϯ, ⁞ӣ Њᤎ, ᕮⱶẾϮϾ
Ἢ၊ὦⵢⵆཫ▂ᤦᅪ↮ⵎѱἪ၊᷶ఊ. ὢᶾഞཪ2020ल
ὢ⺲⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᶾ૮ⵊ↮ẾἮᕶⴲẂⵆᎮ၊ᓢ⁞ὢఎϮઓὢ
ঀἮѱἪ၊ᕲᤋఆӎὶ.
ⶓ⺲՛ ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲ᫊ᾓᶾᤊ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲϮંୂẟẂⵊҫ ᾯဓ⹃ᓢẂὦὢఎѱἪ၊ᕲᤋఊ. ὢ࿚ⵊ᫊ᾓ⹆ҫᶾ՛ࢢᢞ ᶳὢ`Ἷⵎᨆὶல။ⵆંᢞᶳ ؞ᨎ ὢⴲẂⵆ.
ᫎᾚᣋῲဓҫᾯέ␞᫊ᾓ⹃૮ંே ᴲⳲᆚ♢ ᏦᅪἪ၊
⹃ᢞఆં ▂ᤦᶾ ὶ. ⒙⇦, ே ᕯᴲⳲᆚ♢ં ҫᾯέ␞ἲ ⦣ⵆᷚ
⣊ᵿӿᐊῲὢᓢ⹃૮ఆં▂ᤦᅪᓢὦ. ె⇦, Ꮶ↮ᷛἮ╊૮
ᶾࣶ↮ҫᇒ᫊ᾓ⹊⹂ᅪ⦣ⵊἏⱻဓᐊῲᾓὢ᷶ఆӎὶ
. Ꮶ↮ᷛἮ2030लἏⱻဓᐊῲᤒᘲẗྷὢᕯᏦᶾὢᶢ3Ỳᅪ
␖↮ⵎѱἪ၊ῲᇋఆӎὶ. ᤹⇦, ҫᾯέ␞`ẗ՛Ϯં2009ल9 Њ՛ᶾᕶӪⵆᷮἪࢆ2014लᶾ55Њ՛Ἢ၊↋Ϯⵆᷮ. Ꮶ՛Ϯ
᧞YWJJ
ṦᶾலⳲཿ᪒, ὢ⢶ᆚᴲ, ०ᅢỖὢ, ᷯ՛, Ꮶ՛ὢⱻဓᐊῲᢚᶳᶾ
ҫᾯέ␞ἲ`ẗⵆὢ↿⪦, ᴲӣ, ⟎Ỗὢ⪦, ὦலἮ⣊ᵿӿᐊ ῲᢚᶳᶾҫᾯέ␞ἲ`ẗⵆӎὶ.
ᫎᾚᣋῲဓҫᾯέ␞᫊ᾓ↮ᷛ`⹃૮ં՛ࢢᢞᶳ᫊ᾓ␦ᷚ
؞⹃૮ᅪ༩ⵆંே᫊ᶾᕶ⹃↋ϮᅪᏦⵊ. ↮ᷛᶾഞཪ
ᢚᶳኖ⸃, ᾚẾ⁞, Ҳ⦣ᷞҲ⁞Ѣὢᅢ؞ഺጦὢ. ഞཪᤊ
ᫎᾚᣋῲဓҫᾯέ␞᫊ᾓ⹊ẗἲק૮⹂ⵎᨆὶல။↮ᷛᒲ၊╊`
⹂ఊᢚᶳኖ⸃Ӫ↲▊ῲྣἲЊᐊⵎⴲẂϮὶ.
ኖ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲ᫊ᾓ⹃૮ંḓ⸃⣊ᵿӿᐊῲҫ ⶓ
ᶾ؞ὦⵊ. ⒙⇦, Ὢ⁞ྷὢ▗ᕲⵆӎῲ؞ϮҗὢঀἮ↮ᷛᶾᤊં
ḓ⸃⣊ᵿӿᐊῲὢ؞Ϯ ẗῲဓӣἲ૮⒢ⵆંⷲὢὢᏦ
ࢆ⢮ࢆӎὶ. ഞཪᤊ2030लᤦҲ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲ᫊ᾓᶾᤊኖ⣊
ᵿӿᐊῲἮ૮ኖ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲ1.6ᐞኖ၊ᾓⵎῲᇋὢ.
ె⇦, ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᤒᘲϮҗἮⷲᾚঀѺᤒ ఆᶢὶἪࢆⶓ⺲Ӯ ဖᘲẗⵆཫӪⵖۆ࢜ᴲ↮ӎ, ኖ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᤒᘲ⨚Ϯ⹃૮ఆ ᶢ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᤒᘲ⨚ᵏ2/3(ᵫ1.3⁞࿚)ᅪḓ⸃⣊ᵿӿᐊῲ
ὢ␖↮ⵎѱἪ၊᷶ఊ.
ኖ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲἮⶓ⺲ᤎ ⺲↲՛ἲᆷ၎ⵆӎ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲ᫊ᾓ
▃Ἢ၊ᕮⵎῲᇋὢ. ὢᶾഞཪኖ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲἮ᫊ᾓ
⹃૮Ḯⵖۆᕲᢞ⸃ῲẾἪ၊ᤊୂẟ⡞ᘲἲ῾ⵆѺఊ. ↮ᷛ⁞
Ѣᶾ`ⵗⵊᦂზ᥆ЊᐊẂὢ⛒↶ῲᇋὢᎮ၊՛ࢢᢞᶳ ؞ ᨎᷛྷᾓ῾ἲק૮⹂ⵎᨆὶંᷞ՚ЊᐊὢⴲẂⵆ.
ᫎᾚᣋᷢᶾࣶ↮ ὢἎἲἪ၊⹃ᢞఆં▂ᤦᶾὶ. Ἆ
ᷞⵗἮ 2009ल ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮↮♖(2009/28/EC)ἲ ⦣ⵢ ᫎᾚᣋᷢᶾ
ࣶ↮ ἲ⒆ἺἪ၊ታጦ⹂ⵆӎ, Ế՛ᒲࢷࢊᐗᕮጦᫎᾚᣋᷢᶾࣶ
YWJJJ
↮῾Ἆኗⱊᅪᤒ ⵆᷮ. ᫎᾚᣋࢷࢊᐗኗⱊᅪᤒ ⵊῲᤦҲ՛
Ϯં41Њ՛, ՛Ϯં↮⒢␖Ếᫎᾚᣋᷢᶾࣶ↮ὢẗጢ⹂ᅪ
᫊ⵆં՛Ϯં╊19Њ՛ᶾὢᅦ.
ᫎᾚᣋᷢᶾࣶ↮ὢẗጢ⹂லέ⹃ᢞᶾഞཪᫎᾚᣋᷢᶾࣶ↮؞ᨎ
᫊ᾓ␦ᷚ؞Ϯ⹃૮ఎѱἪ၊᷶ఊ. ՛ࢢᶾᤊலᫎᾚᣋᷢᶾࣶ
↮ὢẗጢ⹂லέἲӎဒⵆᎮ၊, Ӯဖఊ؞ᨎ`૮ᴶӪ ல`؞ᐆ ἲ⁞؞⹃ᆫⵎⴲẂϮὶ.
ᐂὢḒᷞႺ᫊ᾓ⹃૮ંᏦᅪἪ၊↲ఆӎὶ. ᐂὢḒ
ᷞႺ⸪ⵗጢᅪ᫊ⵆં՛Ϯં2013लᶾẞ⡚ཪὢࢆ, ᶾ❞லᅢ⫺
ࢆᆶ3Њ՛ὢઆᶢ, ⷲᾚ33Њ՛ᶾὢᅦ. ᴲᅢⷖ⫞ࢆં⸪ⵗጢ
؞⃮ἲB7ᶾᤊB10Ἢ၊ⶓ⁞ ⵆӎ, ᗺཪ↶Ἦῲ՛`Ἢ၊ᶾ⢲Ḛ
⸪ⵗ؞⃮ἲE20ᶾᤊE25၊Ѓ⹂ⵆᷮἪᐂὢḒᷞႺ⸪ⵗ؞⃮Ѓ⹂
(B5 B7)ᅪѮ⦎ⵆӎὶ.
ᫎ ᾚᣋᷞႺ⸪ⵗጢ⹂(RFS)ં2015लᶾ՛ࢢலέఎ᷶ ὢ, ὢ ᅪỲⵊὦⳲཪ՚▃, ல ᘲὢ↲ఆӎὶ. ᤦҲᐂὢḒᷞႺ
᫊ᾓ⹃૮ᅪӎဒⵆᷚ, ⵢṦ᫊ᾓ↲▊ϮઓἲϾᴶⵊὦⳲཪᏽ
ல ᘲ՚▃०ဓὢⴲẂⵆ.
ῲဓẂҲ ல(Net Metering) லέ՛Ϯં2013लᶾצᆚ᪒, ཪ
⪦ᘲᴲ, ẞ⡚ཪὢࢆ, Ḗాཪ᪒, ⴲᆚ5Њ՛ὢઆᶢࢆ, ⷲᾚ43Њ
՛ᶾὢᅦ. ୢᆶ⡚Ḯऒೊં2013लᶾῲဓẂҲ லᅪЊ ⵆᷚ, ϯϯϮẗ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲ↮ẾẂѢἲЃ⹂ⵆўࢆᨆ⸊૮ἲ
⹃૮ⵆᷮ. Ꮶ՛(⚆ᆚ⯚શᴲ⃪)ἮῲဓẂҲ ல`ẗἲᷞᾓⵆ ӎጢ ⵊῲဓẂҲ ல`ẗ؞ᐆἲ⹃▗ⵆᷮ.
՛ࢢᶾᤊં‘ኖᫎ ᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ᐊῲῲဓў྆ᶾӮⵊ↮♖’ ᶾ
תўⵆᷚ10kW ὢⵆᐊῲᤒᘲᤒ♆ᶾ૮ⵆᷚNet Meteringἲ`ẗ
᧞YJY
ⵊ. ؞ᓦẂἮ⃪⣋ẗҫẞᨆῲῲဓྷ(ⵊῲӣ)ᶾᤊίᷚῲဓྷ
ἲҲⵊῲဓྷἲ؞⃮Ἢ၊ⵆӎ, ؞⢮ҫẞંᨆῲῲဓҲᵫῲဓ ἲ؞⃮Ἢ၊ᵫӮᶾഞཪҲᢞⵊ. ῲဓྷẂἮᨆῲῲဓྷᶾᤊίᷚ
ῲဓྷ(૧ỂᏽὢỂᕲ)ἲ␖ϾⵆᷚᢚẗྷẂἲҲᢞⵊ. ⶓ⺲ᕲ ᢞ⸃ᐊῲᓢ⹃૮ᶾഞཪῲဓẂҲ ல`ẗὢ⹃ᢞఎѱἪ
၊᷶ఊ. Ꮶ՛Ὢᕮ⃪϶ᢚီἲӎဒⵎഺῲဓẂҲ லં᫊ᾓ␦ᷚϲ⸃⮷ἲ▗ᕲ⽶ᐞဒⵎⴲẂϮὶ.
"CTUSBDUJ
"#453"$5
3FTFBSDI1VSQPTF
New and Renewable energy is emerging as an important alternative for energy security, climate change, new investment, job creation and future technology market while New and Renewable energy supply and the market is expanding. Solar, wind and biogas have shown a trend of rapid increase in the world renewable energy supply. The average annual growth rate has been 45.5% for solar, 22.9% for wind, 11.9% for biogas during the period of 1990 2013.
Renewable energy industry has a forward and backward linkage effect (materials, components, manufacturing, construction, power generation, etc.) through which it contributes to the creation of value and jobs.
The rapid growth of domestic renewable energy industry is supported by effective policies in R&D, deployment, and industrialization of renewable technologies.
National renewable energy policy faces various challenges such as localization of core technology, efficient regulation and support, overseas expansion of domestic industries and so on. Therefore, the demand for information on renewable energy policies of foreign countries and market trends is increasing. The purpose of this study is to grasp the global trends of renewable market and policies so that implications may be drawn for the development of effective domestic policies.
JJ
This study reviews research materials published by overseas institutions such as IEA, Bloomberg and so on to give an analysis of overseas trends in the three focus sectors solar, wind and biofuels.
Following the Introduction, Chapter 2 deals with the current status and prospects for the global supply and demand of renewable energy.
The third chapter gives a source-by-source review of the global renewable energy market, including solar, wind, bio, etc. Chapter 4 also gives a source-by-source review of the global investment on renewable energy.
Chapter 5 addresses the renewable energy policies by sectors such as renewable power, renewable thermal energy and renewable transport fuel. Finally, Chapter 6 derives strategic implications based on findings from previous chapters.
4VNNBSZ
<World Renewable Energy Supply and Demand>
While the share of fossil fuels among world primary energy supply is more than 80%, renewable energy accounted for only 13.2%. The regional share of world total renewable energy supply is non-OECD 74.5%, OECD 25.4%.
Renewable energy supply in the non-OECD region is mostly non-commercial conventional solid biofuels, while renewable energy supply in the OECD region is primarily modern renewable energy (such as solar, wind, tidal, renewable municipal waste, biogas, liquid biofuels), which accounts for 69.4%.
"CTUSBDUJJJ
< World Renewable Energy Market >
A recent issue emerging in Europe is tax on private solar power which is especially controversial in Germany and Spain. Germany has imposed a tax on private solar power and Spain also submitted a private solar tax bill to Congress. Controversy over these policies has spread to other European countries as well.
China has supported the solar PV with the FIT (grid-connected) and the premium (non-grid-connected). However, due to system limitations, it is expected that China will strengthen the premium for non-grid- connected solar PV while reducing the FIT for grid-connected system.
In the United States, the incentives for the deployment of solar PV are being weakened. This Federal investment tax credit (ITC) benefit will be reduced after 2016. In addition, utility-scale power generation operators are imposing the transmission limit or grid fees on the households of private solar PV in opposition to the government’s introduction of Net-Metering.
On the other hand, the solar PV market is expected grow, with a focus on improving small-scale solar PVs. The size of the small-scale solar PV market in 2030 is estimated to grow 1.6 times compared to the large-scale solar PV market.
Global wind power capacity in 2030 is expected to increase to 1,319GW or more than four times of the level recorded in 2013 (319GW). While onshore wind technology is entering the mature stage, offshore wind may require subsidies by 2030 due to the high cost and low level of deployment.
JW
New capacity of onshore wind power plants in China are expected to remain at the world's largest level by 2030. Offshore wind power is anticipated to have a comparative disadvantage in price competition until 2030, despite recent price drops.
World biofuel supply has increased 7% per year as a 116.6 billion liters, accounting for about 2.3% of the world's transport fuel in 2013. World ethanol production in 2013 increased by more than 5%
per year as 87.2 billion liters, and biodiesel production has increased by 11% over the previous year as 26.3 billion liters.
United States and Brazil accounted for 87% of the world's total production of ethanol in 2013. Although ethanol production and margins record the highest level in the United States in the second quarter of 2014, Ethanol production margin is expected to decline from the third quarter of 2014 due to fall in ethanol prices.
< World Renewable Energy Investment >
Unit cost of solar power is expected to continue to decline due to increased installed capacity, improved manufacturing processes and reduced cost of production materials. Therefore, solar power subsidies are likely to cease after 2020. Cost of large-scale solar power plants are expected to decline by about 30% by 2030.
Price competitiveness of wind power generation is expected to be strengthened rapidly after 2025. However, offshore wind may continue require subsidies due to a lack of competitiveness compared to other technologies.
"CTUSBDUW
World biofuel investment in the second quarter of 2014 increased by 21% compared to the previous quarter. 53% of the total investment was invested in first-generation bio-ethanol and 46% in the next generation of bio-ethanol. The ethanol investment is 485 million dollars for the first-generation ethanol plant expansion (Asia) and ethanol gasification platform (USA), and biodiesel investment during the same period is 343 million dollars.
<World Renewable Energy Policies>
FIT support for large-scale solar power tends to be reduced or abolished due to restraints in both the budget and the transmission network. The countries corresponding to such a situation include Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain, China, and Japan and so on.
On the other hand, FIT support for small-scale solar power, wind power and local components tends to be strengthened. The corresponding countries are Denmark, France, Ireland, the United Kingdom, China, Indonesia, Japan and Thailand.
The European Union (EU) assesses heating and cooling sectors to have great potential in reducing fossil fuel consumption (greenhouse gas emissions). As such, 28 EU Member States adopted target shares for the heating and cooling sectors of renewable heat energy. Globally, 41 countries have set targets for heating and cooling sectors and more than 19 countries conduct RHO (Renewable Heat Obligation) at national or local level.
WJ
Renewable Transport Fuel policy has mainly focused on biofuels production, campaign, use and so on. In recent years, it has shown a tendency to apply complex financial incentives and regulations. The related policy measures are biofuel production subsidy, biofuel blending obligations, tax reductions. The number of countries to enforce blending obligations are 33 as of the beginning of 2014, and some countries (Ukraine, Ecuador, Panama etc.) introduced them in 2013.
3FTFBSDI3FTVMUTBOE1PMJDZ4VHHFTUJPOT
PV cost is expected to continue to decline due to increased installment capacity, improved manufacturing processes, and decrease in the costs of production materials. Thus, subsidies for PV are likely to end after 2020.
The competitive price of PV, therefore, is expected to be a more important factor for competition in the world market. Given such an environment, new policies for domestic industries to adapt themselves to these market conditions are needed.
Competitive bidding for renewable power sector is spreading around the Middle East, Africa, South America. To utilize these opportunities to participate in the bidding market, it is necessary to develop a new business model and strategy optimized to these specific regions.
The small-scale solar power is expected to become the central axis of the future PV market. Hence, domestic policies to maximize the
"CTUSBDUWJJ
benefits of technical competence are needed, especially in light of the increasing importance of developing localized solutions.
As the introduction of RHO is expected to spread over Europe, market opportunities of renewable heat technologies are expected to expand. RHO is to be introduced soon in the domestic market as well. Thus, Korea needs to establish technical and institutional infrastructure for RHO in advance.
₉ಡJ
ᱽ༊₉ಡ
ᱽᰆ ᕽ ು ⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒ
1. ᷞ՚ᐞҫ ··· 1 2. ᷞ՚ኗ` ··· 1 3. ᷞ՚ᐗᒃ ··· 2
ᱽᰆ ǎᱽ ᝁᰍᔾᨱթḡ ࠺⨆ ⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒ
1. ᤦҲᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ᨆⷲ⹗ ··· 3 2. OECD ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ᨆⷲ⹗ ··· 8 3. ᤦҲᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ᨆῲᇋ ··· 15
ᱽᰆ ǎᱽ ᝁᰍᔾᨱթḡ ᰆ ⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒ
1. ⣊ᵿӿ ··· 21 2. ⱻဓ ··· 37 3. ᐂὢḒ ··· 50
ᱽᰆ ǎᱽ ᝁᰍᔾᨱթḡ ⚍ᯱ ⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒ
1. ⣊ᵿӿ ··· 69 2. ⱻဓ ··· 76 3. ᐂὢḒ ··· 85
JJ
ᱽᰆ ǎᱽ ᝁᰍᔾᨱթḡ ᱶ₦ ⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒ
1. ᫎᾚᣋῲဓ ··· 89 2. ᫎᾚᣋᷢᶾࣶ↮ ··· 93 3. ᫎᾚᣋᨆᦏᷞႺ ··· 94
ᱽᰆ đು ၰ ᔍᱱ ⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒ
ₙŁྙ⨭ ⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒⰒ
₉ಡJJJ
⢽₉ಡ
<ⱊ2-1> ᤦҲᫎᾚᣋῲẾᒲᤒᘲẗྷⷲ⹗ᏽῲᇋ(GW) ··· 16
JW
əฝ₉ಡ
[צᆪ2-1] 2012लᤦҲὪ␖ᶾࣶ↮ӣẾᒲᘲ ··· 3 [צᆪ2-2] 2012लᤦҲᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ӣẾᒲᘲ ··· 4 [צᆪ2-3] ᤦҲᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ӣẾᒲᷞ⮷↋Ϯ
(쥋90 쥋12ल) ··· 5 [צᆪ2-4] ↮ᷛᒲᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮῾Ἆ
(Ὢ␖ᶾࣶ↮ӣ؞⃮, 2012ल) ··· 6 [צᆪ2-5] ᤦҲᕮጦᒲᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ᘲ(2012) ··· 7 [צᆪ2-6] ᤦҲᐊῲྷᫎᾚᣋῲẾᒲᘲ(2012) ··· 7 [צᆪ2-7] 2013लOECD Ὢ␖ᶾࣶ↮ӣẾᒲᘲ ··· 9 [צᆪ2-8] 2013लOECD ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ӣẾᒲᘲ ··· 9 [צᆪ2-9] OECD ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ӣẾᒲᷞ⮷↋Ϯ
(쥋90 쥋13ल) ··· 10 [צᆪ2-10] OECD ↮ᷛᒲᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ӣ῾Ἆ ··· 11 [צᆪ2-11] OECD ᐊῲྷᫎᾚᣋῲẾᒲ῾Ἆ ··· 12 [צᆪ2-12] OECD պᷛᫎᾚᣋῲဓӣ↋Ϯ(1990 2013) ··· 13 [צᆪ2-13] OECD պᷛᫎᾚᣋῲẾᒲ῾Ἆ
(1990 2013, ᘲᨆဓ) ··· 14 [צᆪ2-14] ᤦҲᫎᾚᣋῲẾᒲᤒᘲẗྷⷲ⹗ᏽῲᇋ(GW) ··· 16 [צᆪ2-15] ᫎᾚᣋᐊῲᤒᘲẗྷ(>100 MW) ᓢἎ՛ῲᇋ ··· 18 [צᆪ2-16] Ếᒲ⹂ᐊῲᘲẗⷲ⹗ᏽῲᇋ ··· 20 [צᆪ3-1] ளὪ⣊ᵿӿᓦᘲẗ, ᐊῲ␖ᵏ↮Ếᏽῲ؞Ϯҗ▂ὢ ··· 22 [צᆪ3-2] ↮ᷛᒲ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲ৲`ᤒᘲẗྷῲᇋ(GW) ··· 25 [צᆪ3-3] ؞ᨎᒲ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲ৲`ᤒᘲẗྷῲᇋ(GW) ··· 26
₉ಡW
[צᆪ3-4] ↮ᷛᒲ૮ኖ-⣊ᵿӿᷞϲᤒᘲẗྷῲᇋ(GW) ··· 28 [צᆪ3-5] ↮ᷛᒲ૮ኖ-⣊ᵿӿ৲`ᤒᘲẗྷῲᇋ(GW) ··· 29 [צᆪ3-6] ↮ᷛᒲ૮ኖ⣊ᵿӿᤒᘲẗྷῲᇋ᫊ࢆᆚḒ(GW) ··· 31 [צᆪ3-7] ἎϮҲ⮷ῲ؞Ⴚ↮▊ᵏ(쥋12लⵆᐆ؞⮷) ··· 33 [צᆪ3-8] ↮ᷛᒲኖ-⣊ᵿӿᷞϲᤒᘲẗྷῲᇋ(GW) ··· 34 [צᆪ3-9] ↮ᷛᒲኖ-⣊ᵿӿ৲`ᤒᘲẗྷῲᇋ(GW) ··· 35 [צᆪ3-10] ⣊ᵿᷢ৲`ᤒᘲẗྷῲᇋ(GW) ··· 37 [צᆪ3-11] ↮ᷛᒲⱻဓᐊῲ৲`ᤒᘲẗྷῲᇋ(GW) ··· 41 [צᆪ3-12] ؞ᨎᒲⱻဓᐊῲ৲`ᤒᘲẗྷῲᇋ(GW) ··· 42 [צᆪ3-13] ↮ᷛᒲᷞϲⱻဓᐊῲᫎᤒᘲẗྷῲᇋ(GW) ··· 42 [צᆪ3-14] ؞ᨎᒲᷞϲⱻဓᐊῲᫎᤒᘲẗྷῲᇋ(GW) ··· 43 [צᆪ3-15] ↮ᷛᒲⱻဓᐊῲᤒᘲẗྷῲᇋ᫊ࢆᆚḒ(GW) ··· 46 [צᆪ3-16] ↮ᷛᒲⵢⱻဓᷞϲᤒᘲẗྷῲᇋ(GW) ··· 49 [צᆪ3-17] ↮ᷛᒲⵢⱻဓ৲`ᤒᘲẗྷῲᇋ(GW) ··· 49 [צᆪ3-18] Ꮶ՛ᶾ⢲Ḛᣋᢞᆶ↲▂ὢ ῲᇋ(2012.1-2014.9) ··· 53 [צᆪ3-19] Ꮶ՛ᶾ⢲Ḛ⸪ⵗᆶ↲▂ὢ ῲᇋ(2012.1-2014.9) ··· 54 [צᆪ3-20] Ꮶ՛ᐂὢḒം‒ᣋᢞᆶ↲▂ὢ ῲᇋ(2012.1-2014.9) ··· 56 [צᆪ3-21] Ꮶ՛ᐂὢḒം‒⸪ⵗᆶ↲▂ὢ ῲᇋ(2012.1-2014.9) ··· 56 [צᆪ3-22] ᗺཪ↶ᶾ⢲Ḛҫ␖ᷞႺᨆẂ▂ὢ(2011-2014) ··· 57 [צᆪ3-23] ᗺཪ↶ᇒᨆᶾ⢲Ḛᏽ⼆ᐊἎϮҗ▂ὢ ··· 58 [צᆪ3-24] ᗺཪ↶ጢᨆᶾ⢲ḚᣋᢞᘲẗᏽϮҗ▂ὢ ··· 59 [צᆪ3-25] EU ᶾ⢲Ḛᣋᢞᆶ↲▂ὢ ῲᇋ(2012.1-2014.9) ··· 61 [צᆪ3-26] Ἆᶾ⢲Ḛ⸪ⵗᆶ↲▂ὢ ῲᇋ(2012.1-2014.9) ··· 61 [צᆪ3-27] EU ᐂὢḒം‒ᣋᢞᆶ↲▂ὢ ῲᇋ(2012.1-2014.9) ··· 63 [צᆪ3-28] ἎᐂὢḒം‒⸪ⵗᆶ↲▂ὢ ῲᇋ(2012.1-2014.9) ··· 63 [צᆪ3-29] ᴲ⣊↮ᷛᶾ⢲Ḛᣋᢞᆶ↲▂ὢ ῲᇋ(2012.1-2014.9) ··· 65
WJ
[צᆪ3-30] APAC ᶾ⢲Ḛ⸪ⵗᆶ↲▂ὢ ῲᇋ(2012.1-2014.9) ··· 66 [צᆪ3-31] ᴲ⣊↮ᷛᐂὢḒം‒ᣋᢞᆶ↲▂ὢ(2012.1-2014.9) ··· 67 [צᆪ3-32] ᴲ⣊↮ᷛᐂὢḒം‒⸪ⵗᆶ↲▂ὢ(2012.1-2014.9) ··· 67 [צᆪ4-1] ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᤒᘲ⨚▂ὢᏽῲᇋ(2013 $/W ؞⃮) ···· 70 [צᆪ4-2] ૮ኖ⣊ᵿӿLCOE ᏽ⹂ᤋᷞႺϮҗᘲԾ ··· 71 [צᆪ4-3] ኖ⣊ᵿӿᐊῲLCOE ᏽ↮ᷛᒲᘲῲ؞Ϯҗ ···· 72 [צᆪ4-4] ḓ⸃⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᤒᘲࢢᕮᨆὣᅎ(IRR) ῲᇋ ··· 72 [צᆪ4-5] ⣊ᵿӿᤒᘲᕮⱶẾϮᘲῲᇋ(%) ··· 73 [צᆪ4-6] ⣊ᵿӿᤒᘲᕮⱶ᫊ᾓϮ♆ῲᇋ ··· 74 [צᆪ4-7] ↮ᷛᒲ૮ኖ⣊ᵿӿ৲`⨚ኖ ··· 75 [צᆪ4-8] ↮ᷛᒲኖ⣊ᵿӿ৲`⨚ኖ ··· 76 [צᆪ4-9] ἏⱻဓLCOE ᏽ⢲Ϯҗ(⒊ᷞϮ᪒, ᤋ⢲) ᘲԾ ··· 77 [צᆪ4-10] ἎἏⱻဓᐊῲϮ ··· 78 [צᆪ4-11] Ꮶ՛ἏⱻဓᐊῲϮ ··· 78 [צᆪ4-12] ՛ἏⱻဓᐊῲϮ ··· 79 [צᆪ4-13] ⤞ᘶ⢮έᒲⱻဓ⨚ ··· 80 [צᆪ4-14] Ἇⱻဓᕮⱶᒲ᫊ᾓϮ♆ ··· 81 [צᆪ4-15] Ἇⱻဓᕮⱶᒲᘲ(%) ··· 81 [צᆪ4-16] ⵢⱻဓᕮⱶᒲ᫊ᾓϮ♆ ··· 82 [צᆪ4-17] ⵢⱻဓᕮⱶᒲᘲ(%) ··· 82 [צᆪ4-18] ↮ᷛᒲἏⱻဓ৲`⨚ ··· 84 [צᆪ4-19] ↮ᷛᒲⵢⱻဓ৲`⨚ ··· 84 [צᆪ4-20] ᤦҲᐂὢḒᷞႺ؞ᨎᒲ⨚▂ὢ ··· 85 [צᆪ4-21] ᤦҲᐂὢḒᷞႺἎ⸃ᒲ⨚▂ὢ ··· 86 [צᆪ4-22] ᤦҲ↮ᷛᒲᐂὢḒᷞႺ⨚▂ὢ(2005.Q1-2014.Q2) ·· 87
ᱽᰆᕽು
ᱽᰆᕽು
ᩑǍ႑Ğ
ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ӣᏽ᫊ᾓὢ⹃૮ఆંϮẢᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ંᶾ
ࣶ↮ᴶᓢ, ؞⺲ᒮ⹂૮Ἷ, ⨚ ӎẗ▊, Ꮶ྆؞ᨎ᫊ᾓ⹃ᓢᶾ
Ẃⵊ૮ᴶἪ၊ᕮϯఆӎὶ.
ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ ӣἮ ⣊ᵿӿ ⱻဓ ᐂὢḒϮ᪒ᅪ Ἢ၊ ⽶
↋Ϯⵆં▂ᤦᅪᓢὢӎὶ. 1990 2013ल؞ϲᷞ⮷ӣ↋
ϮἮ⣊ᵿӿ45.5%, ⱻဓ22.9%, ᐂὢḒϮ᪒11.9%ᅪ؞။ⵆᷮ.
ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ᢞᶳἮῲ⺲ᐗᷞӮ⺖Ӫ(ᾚ, ᕮⱶ, ⁞, Ѣᤒ, ᐊῲ
)ᅪ⦣ⵢᕮϮϮ♆ᏽὪᆚ▊ᶾ؞ᷚலϮ⡞⪧⇃ἲЄં.
՛ࢢᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ᢞᶳⵊᾓἮ⺖Ӫ`ὦ؞ᨎЊᐊ, ᓢ
⹃૮, ᢞᶳ⹂ ЊᐊἲⴲẂ၊ⵊ.
՛ࢢᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ ἮᷚѢᒮ⹂ᶾᤊⵣ؞ᨎ՛ᢞ⹂, ؞ᨎ
ᢞᶳ⹂, ↮Ế⺖⹂, ⵢṦᢚᶳ↲▊૮ᵿⵊӪ ᶾ૧ቢ ⵆӎὶ. ὢᶾഞཪ՛ ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ ᏽ᫊ᾓேⶓᶾӮⵊ
ᓢᨆẂᏽẂὢୂẟ⛒↮ӎὶ.
ᩑǍ༊ᱢ
ᓦᷞ՚ંⵢṦ؞Ӯᐊϲጪ, ՛ࢢ ṦῲጦϮऒ⪦Ẻ⡚ἲ⦣ⵢ՛
ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮᫊ᾓᏽ ேⶓᫎ⽶⫺ᴳⵆӎ, ՛ࢢ ⷲ
ᴶⵢҞᶾἎẗⵊ᫊ᢚ῾ல▊ἲኗ`Ἢ၊ⵊ.
ᩑǍႊჶ
ᓦᷞ՚ંⵢṦேⶓᕲᤋἲ⦣ⵆᷚᨆఆᶶἪIEA, Bloomberg
Ⴚᷚ࿚ⵢṦῲጦ؞Ӯᐊϲጪἲ⹊ẗⵆᷮ. ᷞ՚૮Ἦ⣊ᵿ ӿ, ⱻဓ, ᐂὢḒᷞႺᶾ⓶῾ἲాᶶ.
ᓦᷞ՚ંேⶓ, ᫊ᾓ, ⨚, Ἢ၊՚ఆᶶ. ᤊ၎ᶾὢᶢ
2ᾓἮ՛ ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ேⶓἲᨆⷲ⹗ᏽῲᇋἲἪ၊
ზӎὶ. 3ᾓἮ՛ ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮᫊ᾓἲ⣊ᵿӿ, ⱻဓ, ᐂὢḒ
Ếᒲ၊Ѯ⦎ⵆᷮ. 4ᾓἮ՛ ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮⨚ᅪẾᒲ၊
ზᶶ. 5ᾓἮ՛ ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ ἲᫎᾚᣋῲဓ, ᫎᾚᣋᷢᶾࣶ
↮, ᫎᾚᣋᨆᦏᷞႺᕲᵪ၊ࢆ৲ᶢѮ⦎ⵆᷮ. 6ᾓἮᵌᤊѮ
⦎ⵊ ᏽ᫊ᾓேⶓἲ⦎૮၊ῲྣ`᫊ᢚ῾ἲல▊ⵆᷮ.
ᱽᰆǎᱽᝁᰍᔾᨱթḡ࠺⨆
ᱽᰆǎᱽᝁᰍᔾᨱթḡ࠺⨆
ᖙĥᝁᰍᔾᨱթḡᙹɪ⩥⫊
2012लᤦҲὪ␖ᶾࣶ↮ӣྷἮ13,372 Mtoeὢ, ẾᒲᘲἪ၊
ᓢቢᤋ⢲, ᤋἎ, ⒊ᷞϮ᪒⹂ᤋᷞႺϮῲ⒢80% ὢἲ␖↮
ⵆӎὶ(2012ल). ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ӣྷἮ1,764 Mtoe၊Ὢ␖ᶾࣶ↮
ӣ13.2%ᅪ῾ⵆӎὶ(צᆪ2-1).
<əฝ>֥ᖙĥᯝ₉ᨱթḡŖɪ᮹ᬱᄥእᵲ
⃪: ‘؞⢮’ં؞ᕲᅆᶾⵢ૧ⵆ↮ᴸંᘲᫎᾚᣋ⮾؞ጪ, ⦎⢲(peat), ḒὪᥞὪ.
‘؞⢮ᫎᾚᣋ’Ἦ↮ᷢ, ⱻဓ, ⣊ᵿᶾࣶ↮, ⁞ဓ
Ⴚ: IEA(2014b)
ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ӣᶾᤊϮᾓ⡞ᘲἲ῾ⵆંѱἮ‘ᐂὢḒᏽ⮾
؞ጪ’၊ᤊ74.1%ᅪ␖↮ⵆ, ὢѱἮὪ␖ᶾࣶ↮ӣ10.3%ᶾⵢ ૧ⵊ. ‘ᐂὢḒᏽ⮾؞ጪ’Ἦல᫊⮾؞ጪ, ᵏ⒢ᐂὢḒᷞႺ, ᐂὢḒϮ
᪒, ӎ⒢ᐂὢḒᷞႺἲ⯚ⵖⵆં, ⪧⽶ӎ⒢ᐂὢḒᷞႺં૮ᕮᕲ
Њல՛ᶾᤊࢊᐗẗ ◖ᢚẗἪ၊ᆼὢᢚẗⵆંᾚ྆᫋ᷞႺὢ(צᆪ
2-2). ἺἪ၊ᨆဓἮᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ӣ17.9%, ᤦҲὪ␖ᶾࣶ↮
ӣ2.5%ᅪ␖↮ⵊ. צᐄᶾ↮ᷢ, ⱻဓ, ⣊ᵿᏽ⁞ဓἮᫎᾚ ᣋᶾࣶ↮ӣ10% ᏦᆺἪ၊ᘲὢ࢜.
<əฝ>֥ᖙĥᝁᰍᔾᨱթḡŖɪ᮹ᬱᄥእᵲ
Ⴚ: IEA(2014b)
ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ӣ↋ϮἮ1990 2012ल؞ϲᷞ⮷2.1%
၊Ὢ␖ᶾࣶ↮ӣ↋Ϯ1.9%ἲⵆંѱἪ၊ࢆ⢮࢚(צᆪ
2-3). ⪧⽶ ே ؞ϲ ⣊ᵿӿӪ ⱻဓ ᷞ⮷ ↋ϮἮ ϯϯ 46.8%, 24.9%၊ᤊ૧⽶ঀἺᶾலᕶ՚ⵆӎ, ↋Ϯᢞ ؞⃮ᷞலὦ1990 लᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ӣ῾Ἆὢᇒẞ࢜ᴲᤊ, Ὢ␖ᶾࣶ↮ӣ
ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮῾ἎἮᴲ↯࢜Ἦᨆ⃮ὢ.
ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮Ếᒲӣ↋ϮἮ⣊ᵿӿӪⱻဓὢϮᾓঀӎἺ Ἢ၊ᐂὢḒϮ᪒, ⣊ᵿᷢ, ᵏ⒢ᐂὢḒ, ↮ᷢ, ᨆဓ, ӎ⒢ᐂὢḒᨊὢ
ᱽᰆǎᱽᝁᰍᔾᨱթḡ࠺⨆
(צᆪ2-3). ⣊ᵿӿӪⱻဓӣ↋Ϯં⃪၊OECD ՛ϮϮ⃪ல ⵆંᐆቢ, ӎ⒢ᐂὢḒӣ↋Ϯં⃪၊ᴲ᫊ᴲ(ᒎ⪦, ՛, Ꮶᵮ ᆶ), ᴲⳲᆚ♢(ኖᾎᘲ⡚, ᨆ, ᶾ⫞Ḓᴲ), ே(Ẃᅢ), Ꮶ⃪(லᏦશ
♢) ᘲOECD ՛ϮϮ⃪லⵆӎὶ.
<əฝ>ᖙĥᝁᰍᔾᨱթḡŖɪ᮹ᬱᄥᩑ⠪Ɂ᷾aᮉ 쥋ⴈ쥋֥
Ⴚ: IEA(2014b)
ᤦҲ ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ ┋ӣ պᷛᒲ ῾ἎἮ ᘲOECD պᷛὢ
74.5%, OECD պᷛὢ25.4%၊, ᘲOECD պᷛ῾Ἆὢ⻖ᴚঀ.
ᘲOECD պᷛᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ӣἮ૮ᕮᕲᾚ྆᫋ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮၊
ᤊᘲᶳẗӎ⒢ᐂὢḒᷞႺὢ. ᐆቢ, OECD պᷛᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮
ӣἮ⃪၊⣊ᵿӿ, ⱻဓ, ⁞ဓ, ᫎᾚᣋல᫊⮾؞ጪ, ᐂὢḒϮ᪒, ᵏ⒢
ᐂὢḒᷞႺⷲ૮᫋ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮Ϯ69.4%၊⃪ἲὢზӎὶ.
պᷛᒲ ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ ῾Ἆ(Ὢ␖ᶾࣶ↮ ӣ ૮ᘲ)Ἦ ᴲⳲᆚ♢
49.6%, Ꮶ⃪(ᘲOECD) 29.2%, ᴲ᫊ᴲ(՛ Ṧ) 25.3%, ՛10.7%,
OECD 8.6%, ἎᏽἎཪ᫊ᴲ(ᘲOECD) 3.6%, ே0.4% ᨊ Ἢ၊ࢆ⢮ࢆӎὶ(צᆪ2-4).
<əฝ>ḡᩎᄥᝁᰍᔾᨱթḡᱱᮁᮉ ᯝ₉ᨱթḡŖɪʑᵡ ֥
Ⴚ: IEA(2014b)
ᤦҲᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ᘲᅪᕮጦᒲ၊ᓢቢ, ῶᐆὢἲϮ ᶳ ӣӣᕮጦὢ῾ⵆӎὶ(צᆪ2-5). ὢંЊல՛ᶾᤊᓢ⮦⹂ఊӎ⒢ᐂ ὢḒᷞႺ ᢚẗὢ ⃪၊ Ϯ ᕮጦᶾ ↿ఆᶢ ὶ؞ ഺጦὢ. ⵊ⮦, OECD պᷛᶾᤊં ᶳẗ ᷢ ῲ؞ᣋᢞᕮጦὢ ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ ᘲ
ᵫῶᐆἲ῾ⵆӎὶ.
ᱽᰆǎᱽᝁᰍᔾᨱթḡ࠺⨆
<əฝ>ᖙĥᇡྙᄥᝁᰍᔾᨱթḡᗭእ
⃪: ‘؞⢮’ં؞⢮ῲ⹆ᕮጦ, ᶾࣶ↮ᢞᶳϮẗᘲ, . ‘ӣӣ’Ἦॻᶳ, ὲᶳ, ᶢᶳ, ؞⢮ᕮጦ
Ⴚ: IEA(2014b)
<əฝ>ᖙĥၽᱥపᵲᝁᰍᔾᱥᬱᄥእᵲ
Ⴚ: IEA(2014b)
ᤦҲ ῲဓᣋᢞ ᫎᾚᣋῲẾ ᘲἮ 20.9%၊ᤊ, ᤋ⢲(40.4%)ὢࢆ
⒊ᷞϮ᪒(22.5%)ᓢ࢜↮ᆺ, Ếဓ(10.9%)ὢࢆᤋἎ(5%)ᓢঀ
(צᆪ2-6). ᨆဓἮᤦҲᫎᾚᣋῲẾ77.4%, ᤦҲᐊῲྷ16.2%
ᅪ῾ⵆӎὶ. ᐆቢ, ᐂὢḒᷞႺᏽ⮾؞ጪἮᤦҲᐊῲྷ1.7%ᅪ
῾Ἆⵆᷚ, צᘲὢק⽶ᏦᏦⵆ. ↮ᷢ, ⣊ᵿӿ, ⱻဓἮⵊ
ᾓᤦᅪᓢὢӎὶἪࢆ, ᤦҲᐊῲྷᶾᤊ῾ⵆંᘲἮ3.1%၊࢜
Ἦᨆ⃮ὢ.
0&$%ᝁᰍᔾᨱթḡᙹɪ⩥⫊
OECD ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ᨆⷲ⹗ἲᢢ⮢ᓢંѱἮἺӪЇἮᏦ Ϯὶ. ⒙⇦, ⷲ૮᫋ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ᨆேⶓἲ ⹃⽶⫺ᴳⵆં
Ἆὣⵆ. ె⇦, Ϯᾓ╊תᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ேⶓἲ⫺ᴳⵆંἎ ᆚⵆ. OECD ՛Ϯὢⷲ૮᫋ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮Њᐊ ᓢἲ⃪லⵆ ӎὶἪ, ᓢ╊תὢ⤞(2013ल)ᅪὢẗⵎᨆὶ؞ഺጦὢ.
2013लOECD ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮῾ἎἮ8.8%၊1990लὢ྆╊ӎ♆
ᅪ؞။ⵆᷮ(Ὢ␖ᶾࣶ↮ӣ؞⃮, צᆪ2-7). ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ӣྷ
Ἦ1990ल268Mtoeᶾᤊ2013ल463Mtoe၊, ᷞ⮷2.4% ↋Ϯⵆᷮ
. ᐆቢ, ே؞ϲᤋ⢲, ᤋἎ, Ếဓᾚ྆᫋ᶾࣶ↮ӣ↋
ϮἮᷞ⮷0.6%ᶾᕶӪⵆᷮ.
ᱽᰆǎᱽᝁᰍᔾᨱթḡ࠺⨆
<əฝ>֥0&$%ᯝ₉ᨱթḡŖɪ᮹ᬱᄥእᵲ
⃪: ‘؞⢮’ં؞ᕲᅆᶾⵢ૧ⵆ↮ᴸંᘲᫎᾚᣋ⮾؞ጪ, ⦎⢲(peat), ḒὪᥞὪ.
‘؞⢮ᫎᾚᣋ’Ἦ↮ᷢ, ⱻဓ, ⣊ᵿᶾࣶ↮, ⁞ဓ
Ⴚ: IEA(2014b)
<əฝ>֥0&$%ᝁᰍᔾᨱթḡŖɪ᮹ᬱᄥእᵲ
Ⴚ: IEA(2014b)
OECDᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ӣϮᾓ⡞ᘲἲ῾ⵆંѱἮᐂὢ ḒᷞႺᏽ⮾؞ጪ(54.8%)ὢ. ⪧⽶ῲ⦣`ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ંᫎᾚᣋᶾ
ࣶ↮ӣ80% ὢἲ␖↮ⵊ(ӎ⒢ᐂὢḒᷞႺᏽኗ⢲37.2% ᨆ ဓ26.2%, ᵏ⒢ᐂὢḒᷞႺ10.1%, ↮ᷢ7.1% , צᆪ2-8).
OECDῲ⦣`ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ӣ↋ϮἮᷞ⮷1.7%၊ᫎᾚ ᣋᶾࣶ↮┋ӣ↋Ϯ2.4%ᓢ࢜(צᆪ2-9). ὢંᨆဓὢ⯚⹂
⣊ᶾலⵆᷚӣ↋Ϯὢᷞ⮷0.8%၊࢜ᴲ›ӎ, ӎ⒢ᐂὢḒ
ᷞႺᏽ↮ᷢலϯϯ1.2%, 0.9%၊↋Ϯὢూ⹂ఊഺጦὢ.
OECDᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ӣἮ2000ल૮ὢῲغ↮ῲ⦣`ᫎᾚᣋᶾ
ࣶ↮ᷯⶓἲᆼὢᐉᵆἪࢆ, 2000ल૮ὢ⺲ં⣊ᵿᶾࣶ↮, ⱻဓ, ⁞ဓ, ᵏ⒢ᐂὢḒᷞႺ, ᐂὢḒϮ᪒ⷲ૮᫋ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ᷯⶓἲᆼὢ
ᐉં.
<əฝ>0&$%ᝁᰍᔾᨱթḡŖɪ᮹ᬱᄥᩑ⠪Ɂ᷾aᮉ 쥋ⴈ쥋֥
Ⴚ: IEA(2014b)
ᱽᰆǎᱽᝁᰍᔾᨱթḡ࠺⨆
1990 2013ल؞ϲⷲ૮᫋ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ӣᷞ⮷↋Ϯ
Ἦ ᵏ⒢ᐂὢḒᷞႺ 47.5%, ⣊ᵿӿ 45.5%, ⱻဓ 22.9%, ᐂὢḒϮ᪒
11.9%၊ঀӎ, ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮ӣᶾᤊ῾ⵆંᘲல1990ल3.2%ᶾ ᤊ2013ल29.5%၊⡚Ѻઆᶢ࢚. צ࿚ࢆὪ␖ᶾࣶ↮ӣᶾᤊ␖↮
ⵆં῾ἎἮ2.6%၊࢜Ἦᨆ⃮ὢ.
2013लᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮῾ἎἲOECD ↮ᷛᒲ၊ᓢቢἎὢ12.5%
၊Ϯᾓঀ(1990ल5.8%). Ꮶ⃪↮ᷛἮ7.9%၊ᷛ૮╊ӎᨆ⃮ἲ؞
။ⵊᐆቢ, ᴲ᫊ᴲ Ḓᤦᴲશᴲ↮ᷛἮ4.0%၊1990लᶾᘲⵆᷚўᒮ
⹂Ϯᶴ.
<əฝ>0&$%ḡᩎᄥᝁᰍᔾᨱթḡŖɪᱱᮁᮉ
Ⴚ: IEA(2014b)
2013ल OECD ᫎᾚᣋῲဓ ᣋᢞྷἮ ῲल૮ᘲ 4.8% ↋Ϯⵊ
2,278TWh၊OECD ┋ᐊῲྷ21.1%ᅪ῾ⵆӎὶ(צᆪ2-12). ὢ
ં1990लὢ྆ϮᾓঀἮᨆ⃮ᫎᾚᣋῲဓ῾Ἆὢ.
<əฝ>0&$%ၽᱥపᵲᝁᰍᔾᱥᬱᄥᱱᮁᮉ
Ⴚ: IEA(2014b)
1990 2013ल؞ϲOECD պᷛᫎᾚᣋῲဓӣ↋ϮἮᨆ ဓ Ṧ᫊ᷞ⮷8.2%(ᨆဓ⯚ⵖ᫊1.5%)၊ᤊ, ῲဓ┋ᣋᢞ↋Ϯ
(ᷞ⮷1.6%)ᓢ⻖ᴚঀ(צᆪ2-13).
Ếᒲ ᷞ⮷ ӣ ↋ϮἮ ⣊ᵿӿ 45.5%, ⱻဓ 22.9%, ᐂὢḒ
13.2% Ἢ၊ⷲ૮᫋ᫎᾚᣋᶾࣶ↮Ϯⵊᾓᤦᅪࢆ⢮ࢢંᐆ ቢ, ᨆဓἮ0.8%၊࢜Ἦ↋Ϯἲᓢὢӎὶ.
ᱽᰆǎᱽᝁᰍᔾᨱթḡ࠺⨆
<əฝ>0&$%ǭᩎ᮹ᝁᰍᔾᱥಆŖɪ᷾aᮉ ⴈ
Ⴚ: IEA(2014b)
OECD պᷛᶾᤊᨆဓᘲἮ؞⺲ᏽέ↮ ᵫἪ၊ὦⵢỲ
▃ఆᶢṂ. ᨆဓ῾ἎἮ1990ल15.5%ᶾᤊ2013ल13.1%၊Ͼ
ⵆᷮӎ, ᫎᾚᣋῲဓӣᶾᤊᨆဓ῾ἎἮ89.3%ᶾᤊ61.9%၊
ᶢᶶ. ⣊ᵿӿ, ⱻဓ, ᐂὢḒϮ᪒, ல᫊⮾؞ጪⷲ૮᫋ᫎᾚᣋ ῲဓ↋ϮϮὢ࿚ⵊᨆဓᐊῲϾᷯⶓἲᦲⵆӎὶ.
ᨆဓἲ Ṧⵊ ⷲ૮᫋ ᫎᾚᣋῲဓ ῲဓӣ ῾ἎἮ 1990ल
1.8%ᶾᤊ2013ल8%၊↋Ϯⵆᷮ. 1990लӪ2013लẾᒲ῾Ἆ
ἲᢢ⮢ᓢቢἺӪЇ.
1990ल ᫎᾚᣋῲẾᒲ ῲဓӣ ῾Ἆἲ ᓢቢ, ӎ⒢ᐂὢḒᷞႺḮ
↮ᷢὢϯϯ67.0%Ḯ20.3%၊Ϯᾓ⡞ᘲἲ῾ⵆᷮ(צᆪ2-14).
ᐆቢ, ⣊ᵿӿ, ⱻဓ, ᐂὢḒϮ᪒, ᵏ⒢ᐂὢḒᷞႺἮᫎᾚᣋῲဓ(ᘲ ᨆဓ)ӣᶾᤊ6% ὢⵆ࢜Ἦᘲἲ῾ⵆᷮ.
2013ल ᫎᾚᣋῲẾᒲ ῲဓӣ ῾Ἆἲ ᓢቢ, ӎ⒢ᐂὢḒᷞႺḮ
↮ᷢὢ ϯϯ 19.6%Ḯ 5.2%၊ ૮⯛ Ͼⵆӎ ⱻဓ 50.9%, ⣊ᵿӿ
8.2%, ᐂὢḒϮ᪒7.3% ⷲ૮᫋ᫎᾚᣋῲဓᘲὢ⡚Ѻ↋Ϯⵆ
ᷮ.
<əฝ>0&$%ǭᩎᝁᰍᔾᱥᬱᄥᱱᮁᮉ ⴈ እᙹಆ
OECD պᷛᫎᾚᣋῲဓӣ↋Ϯં⃪၊Ἆᶾⵆ⃪ᷚலఆ ᶢ ṂἪ(ᷞ⮷ 3.7% ↋Ϯ, 1990 2013ल), ἎἮ 2013ल ⷲᾚ
OECD ῲ⒢ᫎᾚᣋῲဓӣ46.6%(1990ल35.2%)ᅪ῾ⵆӎὶ.
OECD պᷛᒲᫎᾚᣋῲဓ῾ἎἮἎ29.9%(1990ल17.5%), Ꮶ
⃪19.1%(1990ल18.5%), ᴲ᫊ᴲ Ḓᤦᴲશᴲ10.4%(1990ल12.9%) ᨊὢ. ᫎᾚᣋῲဓ῾ἎἮἎӪ՚Ꮶᶾᤊ↋Ϯⵊᐆቢ, ᴲ᫊ᴲ ḒᤦᴲશᴲᶾᤊϾⵆᷚ, OECD ῲ⒢ᫎᾚᣋῲဓ῾ἎἮ21.1%
(1990ल17.3%)၊ࢆ⢮ࢆӎὶ.
ᱽᰆǎᱽᝁᰍᔾᨱթḡ࠺⨆
ᖙĥᝁᰍᔾᨱթḡᙹɪᱥ
ԧপծ୍ࢳୢডण߆෮จࢫୢ࠷
2013लᤦҲᫎᾚᣋᐊῲᤒᘲẗྷἮ1,692GW၊ᤊ, ᷞϲᤒᘲẗྷ
↋Ϯᕲὢ123GW၊ᷛ૮╊૮ኖᅪ؞။ⵆᷮ. ᨆဓᐊῲᤒᘲẗྷ
Ἦ ῲलᓢ 41GW ↋Ϯⵊ 1,133GW၊, ՛ ᤒᘲ↋ᤒ(31GW)ὢ
⃪ẂᷯⶓẂὦἪ၊ẗⵆᷮ.
⣊ᵿӿᐊῲᤒᘲẗྷἮῲलᓢ39GW ↋Ϯⵊ137GW၊ᤊ, FIT
↮Ếᶾ⾆έἮ՛ᏽὪᓦᤒᘲẗྷ↋ϮϮ⃪ẂᷯⶓẂὦὢ.
⣊ᵿᷢᐊῲᤒᘲẗྷἮῲलᓢ900MW ↋Ϯⵊ3.5GW၊ᷞϲ╊
૮ኖᤒᘲẗྷ↋Ϯᅪ؞။ⵆᷮ. ὢં⃪၊᪒⮆ὦӪᏦ՛
ᶳẗᤒᘲẗྷ↋Ϯᶾ؞ὦⵊ.
ἏⱻဓᐊῲᤒᘲẗྷἮῲलᓢ34GW ↋Ϯⵊ312GW၊ᤊ, ᤒ ᘲẗྷ↋ϮኖϮ2008लὢ⺲╊΅ᨆ⃮ἲ؞။ⵆᷮ. ὢંᏦ՛
ᷞᐗᤦᵏϾቢ லἎ↮ᷚᕮᕶ⹃Ἢ၊ὦⵆᷚ⨚ϮỲ▃ఆᶶ
؞ഺጦὢ.
ⵢⱻဓᐊῲᤒᘲẗྷἮ1.7GW ↋Ϯⵊ7GW၊ᤊ, ᤒᘲẗྷᷞ
ϲ↋ϮኖϮᷛ૮╊૮ᨆ⃮ἲ؞။ⵆᷮ. ὢંᷯ՛, ளὪ, ᒖ؞
ᶾ૮ኖⳲ၊⪦Њ᫊Ϯ⃪ẂᷯⶓẂὦἪ၊ẗⵆᷮ.
↮ᷢᐊῲᤒᘲẗྷἮ0.5GW ↋Ϯⵊ12GWᅪ؞။ⵆᷮ. Ꮶ՛, ὦ லऒ᫊ᴲ, ↶ྊೊὢᤒᘲẗྷ↋Ϯᕲ2/3ᅪ῾ⵆӎὶ. ᐂὢḒ ᇒ᪒ᐊῲᤒᘲẗྷἮ5GW ↋Ϯⵊ88GWᅪ؞။ⵆᷮ. Ꮶ՛, ளὪ,
՛, ᗺཪ↶ᤒᘲẗྷ↋ϮϮᤒᘲẗྷ↋Ϯᶾ؞ᷚⵆᷮ.1)
1) ᐂὢḒᇒ᪒ᷢӣᤒᘲẗྷ↋ϮᕲἮ3GWth, ᤒᘲẗྷἮ296GWth(REN21, 2014)
IEAᶾഞᅢቢ2020लغ↮ᫎᾚᣋᐊῲᤒᘲẗྷ؞ῲᇋἮἺ ӪЇ(צᆪ2-14, ⱊ2-1).
<əฝ>ᖙĥᝁᰍᔾᱥᬱᄥᖅእᬊప⩥⫊ၰᱥ (8
Ⴚ: IEA(2014a)
⢽ ᖙĥᝁᰍᔾᱥᬱᄥᖅእᬊప⩥⫊ၰᱥ (8
2005 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ᨆဓ 874 1,133 1,168 1,203 1,237 1,270 1,307 1,333 1,360
ᐂὢḒ 49 88 93 97 104 111 118 125 133
ⱻဓ 59 319 363 407 449 491 536 583 630 Ἇ 59 312 354 396 435 475 517 559 602
ⵢ 1 7 8 11 13 16 20 24 29
⣊ᵿӿ 4 137 176 214 253 289 326 364 403
⣊ᵿᷢ 0 4 5 5 6 7 8 10 11
↮ᷢ 9 12 12 13 13 14 15 15 16
ⵢᵿ 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ⵗҲ 997 1,692 1,817 1,940 2,061 2,182 2,311 2,431 2,555
Ⴚ: IEA(2014a)
