Australia’s trade with East Asia

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FINAL ISSUE AUSTRALIA’S

TRADE WITH EAST ASIA

2013

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Australia’s trade with East Asia

2013

Economic Diplomacy, Trade Advocacy & Statistics Section Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade October 2014

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ISSN 2200-8489 (Print) ISSN 2200-8497 (Online) ISBN 978-1-74322-183-9 (Book) ISBN 978-1-74322-182-2 (PDF format)

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Statistical tables

Trade in goods & services with selected East Asia countries 1. Australia’s trade, balance of payments basis ... 21

2. Australia's exports of goods & services ... 22

3. Australia's imports of goods & services ... 22

4. Australia's total trade in goods & services ... 23

5. Australia's trade balance goods & services... 23

Trade in goods with East Asia 6. Australia's merchandise exports to East Asia ... 24

7. Australia's merchandise imports from East Asia ... 25

Trade in services with selected East Asia countries 8. Australia's services exports to East Asia ... 26

9. Australia's services imports from East Asia... 26

Australia’s broad level of processing by major country 10. Australia’s trade with East Asia by broad level of processing ... 27

11. Australia’s trade with ASEAN by broad level of processing ... 28

12. Australia’s trade with China by broad level of processing ... 29

13. Australia’s trade with Hong Kong (SAR of China) by broad level of processing ... 30

14. Australia’s trade with Indonesia by broad level of processing... 31

15. Australia’s trade with Japan by broad level of processing... 32

16. Australia’s trade with Malaysia by broad level of processing ... 33

17. Australia’s trade with the Philippines by broad level of processing ... 34

18. Australia’s trade with the Republic of Korea by broad level of processing... 35

19. Australia’s trade with Singapore by broad level of processing ... 36

20. Australia’s trade with Taiwan by broad level of processing... 37

21. Australia’s trade with Thailand by broad level of processing ... 38

22. Australia’s trade with Vietnam by broad level of processing ... 39

23. Australia’s merchandise exports to East Asia by level of processing ... 40

24. Australia’s merchandise imports from East Asia by level of processing ... 42

Australia’s merchandise exports and imports with East Asia by level of processing 25. Australia’s merchandise exports – Primary products ... 44

26. Australia’s merchandise imports – Primary products ... 45

27. Australia’s merchandise exports – Manufactured products... 46

28. Australia’s merchandise imports – Manufactured products... 47

29. Australia’s merchandise exports – STM (excl Nickel) ... 48

30. Australia’s merchandise imports – STM ... 49

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Contents (continued)

Table ...Page

Australia’s merchandise exports and imports with East Asia by level of processing (cont’d)

31. Australia’s merchandise exports – ETM ... 50

32. Australia’s merchandise imports – ETM ... 51

33. Australia’s merchandise exports – Other goods... 52

34. Australia’s merchandise imports – Other goods... 53

35. Australia’s merchandise exports – Other goods – Gold ... 54

36. Australia’s merchandise imports – Other goods – Gold ... 55

Australia’s merchandise trade with selected East Asia partners 37. Australia’s merchandise trade with East Asia ... 56

38. Australia’s merchandise trade with ASEAN ... 58

39. Australia’s merchandise trade with China ... 60

40. Australia’s merchandise trade with Indonesia ... 62

41. Australia’s merchandise trade with Japan ... 64

42. Australia’s merchandise trade with Malaysia ... 66

43. Australia’s merchandise trade with the Republic of Korea ... 68

44. Australia’s merchandise trade with Singapore ... 70

45. Australia’s merchandise trade with Taiwan ... 72

46. Australia’s merchandise trade with Thailand ... 74

47. Australia’s merchandise trade with Vietnam ... 76

Australia’s services trade with selected East Asia partners 48. Australia’s services trade with East Asia ... 78

49. Australia’s services trade with ASEAN ... 78

50. Australia’s services trade with China... 79

51. Australia’s services trade with Indonesia ... 79

52. Australia’s services trade with Japan ... 80

53. Australia’s services trade with Malaysia ... 80

54. Australia’s services trade with the Republic of Korea ... 81

55. Australia’s services trade with Singapore... 81

56. Australia’s services trade with Taiwan... 82

57. Australia’s services trade with Thailand ... 82

58. Australia’s education-related travel services exports with East Asia ... 83

Fact Sheets –

updated twice a year and can be found at the DFAT website

Technical appendices

Appendix A – Explanatory notes ... 86

Appendix B – Composition of regions and country groups ... 91

Appendix C – Abbreviations and symbols ... 94

Appendix D – Confidential exports ... 97

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A WORLD OF TRADE DATA AT YOUR FINGERTIPS

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AUSTRALIA’S PREMIER SOURCE

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Now you can access Australian trade statistics gathered and held by Australia’s leading expert in the field, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT). Better still, this information can be customised and prepared to suit your specific needs.

The Economic Diplomacy, Trade Advocacy & Statistics Section (EDS) provides statistics used in research, including measures such as detailed classifications of exports and imports. EDS’s data holdings include a substantial amount of economic and social information about Australia and the rest of the world.

Trade data is available in any of the following combinations.

*** * Pivot tables * ***

In addition to the regular PDF release of the 2013 edition of the Composition of Trade publication, an expanded range of the tables in Section 4 (Australia’s merchandise trade by category) and Section 7 (Australia’s AUSTRALIA'S MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS

merchandise trading partners, top 20 exports

Country and commodity pivot table – 2006 to 2013

Trade type Total Exports

Partner country (All)

A$'000 Column Labels

Row Labels 2006 2012 2013

281 Iron ores & concentrates 14,365,713 54,447,229 69,493,657

and imports) are also being released in pivot table format, using MS Excel. All users with access to MS Excel 2008 or 2010 will be able to download the pivot table, enabling significantly enhanced analysis of the data.

321 Coal 23,275,568 41,273,434 39,805,084

343 Natural gas 5,108,992 13,416,085 14,601,776 The pivot tables provide extra analytical power

971 Gold 9,154,259 15,525,660 13,896,653

333 Crude petroleum 6,674,086 10,988,190 9,015,872 for statistical research, with functions that

041 Wheat 3,362,458 6,530,577 6,085,464 include the ability to:

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• Sort in descending order to find the top commodity exports/imports with a selected country or the top countries of exports/imports for a selected commodity.

The Explanatory notes attached to the pivot table spread sheet describe how to perform these operations.

DFAT would appreciate your feedback on the pivot tables. Initially they will be will be released together with the PDF version of the publication, however it may be subject to a more frequent release schedule in the future.

Feedback can be sent to [email protected]. The pivot tables can be accessed on the DFAT website.

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Market information service

EDS provides accurate and timely, high-level statistical support for research and analysis. The consultancy service also draws on international sources to compile the most comprehensive coverage available, so you can have a world of trade information individually prepared to your requirements and delivered quickly, accurately and at a very competitive price.

● Reports can be “tailor-made” according to requirements – by country and by commodity

– monthly, quarterly and for calendar or financial years.

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For more information about our services email [email protected] or visit the

website http://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/trade-and-economic-statistics.html; or www.dfat.gov.au/geo/fs for free fact sheets.

Interactive website

Explore Australia’s Trade at a Glance interactive website which complements the annual Trade at a Glance publication, allowing users to investigate Australia’s trade profile. It brings together information from a range of DFAT publications in the one location for the first time. It includes data on Australia’s trade by state and territory, top trading partners, Australia’s trade with APEC and the G20 and more.

Trade statistical publications

Each year EDS produces a range of publications containing detailed information on all aspects of Australia’s trade in goods and services with the rest of the world. These are available as accessible PDFs

at http://www.dfat.gov.au/publications/statistics.html Releases in the series include:

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Final issue

This is the final issue of Australia’s trade with East Asia. However all the trade data in this publication can be accessed either from the other trade statistical publications released by DFAT, or through the new trade time series data.

DFAT has expanded its range of time series trade data on an MS Excel basis. All trade statistical time series data will be released from a consolidated web page (trade time series data in excel format) on the DFAT website, under the Trade and economic statistics page. The time series data includes:

i) Trade statistical pivot tables:

• Australia's exports and imports by all countries and selected country groups by SITC at the 3-digit level; and

• Australia's exports and imports by all countries and selected country groups by DFAT's TRIEC at the 1-, 2-, 3- and 4-digit levels.

These two pivot tables will be released on a calendar and financial year basis.

A new user guide to the pivot tables will be developed to help users who are not yet familiar with using pivot tables.

ii) Australia’s direction of goods and services trade:

New time series spreadsheets have been developed covering Australia’s trade in goods and services (exports, imports & two-way trade). Data on goods, services and goods and services will be published for 34 of Australia’s major trading partners, as well as data by broad geographic groups and selected country groups.

The spreadsheets will be published on a calendar year basis (back to 1987) and a financial year basis (back to 1986-87).

iii) Historical trade and economic data:

As part of a new product, Australia’s Trade Though Time (ATTT), two new spreadsheets are now available on the DFAT website. The first spreadsheet, Australia’s trade and economic indicators, contains time series data for a range of trade and economic indicators back to 1901 (and for total merchandise trade back to 1826). The second time series spreadsheet, Australia’s direction of trade, will contain time series data for around 60 of Australia’s major merchandise trading partners back to 1901 (and in some cases to 1885).

Periodic analysis on Australia’s trade with East Asia will continue to be produced and published under the webpage – Recent trade statistical articles and information papers.

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Australia’s trade highlights with East Asia – 2013

¹

Australia’s trade in goods and services with East Asia

• The value of total trade in goods and services

A$b A$b

•

• 0

50 100 150 200 250

0 50 100 150 200

250 to East Asia increased 7.6 per cent to

$366.7 billion in 2013 (see Box A)

– since 2008, total trade values have increased by an average of 6.1 per cent per annum.

In comparison, Australia’s total trade with the world rose 3.7 per cent to $647.4 billion.

East Asia accounted for 56.6 per cent of Australia’s total trade in goods and services.

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Exports Imports

Based on ABS trade data on DFAT STARS database, ABS catalogue 5368.0.55.004 and unpublished ABS data.

Australia’s goods and services exports to East Asia

Services • The value of exports to East Asia increased

10.1% by 10.6 per cent to $218.8 billion in 2013

– since 2008, export values have increased by an average of 8.4 per cent per annum.

• Primary products rose 10.6 per cent to

$145.8 billion.

• Manufactures (including both STM and ETM) increased 1.1 per cent to $18.7 billion.

Primary

products • Other goods rose 21.1 per cent to

66.6%

$32.4 billion (see Box B).

• Services rose 4.8 per cent to $22.0 billion.

Australia’s goods and services imports from East Asia

• In 2013, the value of imports from East Asia

Services Primary increased 3.6 per cent to $147.8 billion

14.1% products

– since 2008, import values have increased by an average of 3.2 per cent per annum.

• Primary products increased 8.5 per cent to

STM $31.2 billion.

3.0%

• Manufactures rose 2.5 per cent to $91.7 billion.

• Other goods decreased 26.2 per cent to

$4.1 billion.

• Services rose 10.2 per cent to $20.9 billion.

STM (excl Nickel)

4.2%

ETM 4.4%

Other goods 14.8%

21.1%

ETM 59.0%

Other goods 2.8%

1 Unless otherwise stated, all dollar amounts quoted in this publication are measured in Australian dollars and are in current price terms.

Goods (merchandise) trade is published on a recorded trade basis, services on a balance of payments basis.

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Box A: Overview of trade with East Asia

Australia’s balance of trade in goods and services with East Asia recorded a surplus of $71.0 billion in 2013, an increase of 28.5 per cent (or $15.8 billion) on the surplus recorded in 2012. By comparison, Australia’s trade balance with the world recorded a deficit of $10.2 billion, a turnaround of $13.4 billion on the deficit of $23.6 billion recorded in 2012.

Australia’s total trade in goods and services with East Asia increased 7.6 per cent in 2013 (see Chart 1) the fourth consecutive increase since the fall recorded in 2009. Since 2008, total trade with East Asia has grown at an annual average rate of 6.1 per cent.

Exports to East Asia grew 10.6 per cent, due mainly to increases in Minerals (up 24.8 per cent – or

$16.1 billion – to $81.0 billion); Gold (up 30.5 per cent – or $2.5 billion – to $10.5 billion); Processed food (up 18.7 per cent – or $1.7 billion – to $10.9 billion) and Simply transformed manufactures (up 7.1 per cent – or $608 million – to $9.1 billion). This was offset by a fall in Fuels²(down 8.1 per cent – or

$3.5 billion – to $39.7 billion).

Imports from East Asia increased 3.6 per cent in 2013. This was largely due to increases in Elaborately transformed manufactures (up 2.5 per cent – or $2.1 billion – to $87.3 billion); Fuels (up 8.8 per cent – or

$2.1 billion – to $26.5 billion) and Services (up 10.2 per cent – or $1.9 billion – to $20.9 billion).

Offsetting this rise was a fall in Other goods – mainly Gold – (down 44.3 per cent – or $991 million – to

$1.2 billion).

Chart 1: Australia’s Total trade in goods and services (percentage change)

Based on ABS trade data on DFAT STARS database, ABS catalogue 5368.0.55.004, and unpublished ABS data.

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

World East Asia China Japan Republic of Korea ASEAN

% change

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2 Crude petroleum was made confidential from July 2013 onwards.

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Composition of trade

0 20 40 60 80

Composition of Australia’s merchandise exports to East Asia

A$b • Australia’s major exports to East Asia in 2013

were

– Iron ores & concentrates – up 27.9 per cent to $69.5 billion

– Coal – up 2.0 per cent to $31.4 billion.

– Gold – up 30.5 per cent to $10.5 billion – Crude petroleum* – valued at $6.1 billion.

• Natural gas exports were also significant (see

2012 2013

Table A), valued at over $15 billion.

Iron ore Coal Gold Crude petroleum • *Crude petroleum was made confidential from July 2013 onwards (see Table A).

Based on ABS trade data on DFAT STARS database.

Composition of Australia’s merchandise imports from East Asia

A$b • In 2013, Australia’s major imports from East

Asia were

– Refined petroleum – up 18.8 per cent to

$17.1 billion

– Passenger motor vehicles – up 0.2 per cent to $10.7 billion

– Crude petroleum – down 7.9 per cent to

$8.6 billion

2012 2013 – Telecom equipment & parts – up

2.9 per cent to $7.0 billion.

Refined petroleum Passenger motor vehicles Crude petroleum Telecom equip & parts Based on ABS trade data on DFAT STARS database.

Australia’s services trade with East Asia

• The three main Services exports in 2013 were – Transport services – valued at $2.4 billion A$b 2013

– Travel services – up 2.9 per cent to

$15.4 billion

– Other services³ – down 31.1 per cent to

$4.1 billion.

• In 2013, the three main Services imports were – Transport services – up 2.5 per cent to $7.6

billion

– Travel services – up 6.6 per cent to

$9.1 billion

Exports Imports – Other services² – up 29.6 per cent to

Other $3.7 billion.

Transport Travel Based on ABS catalogue 5368.0.

3 Other services consists of services such as: Construction; Insurance & pension; Financial; Intellectual property charges;

Telecommunications, computer & information; Other business services; Personal, cultural & recreational and Government services. It excludes Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others and Maintenance & repair services nie.

0 5 10 15 20

0 4 8 12 16

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Box B: Exports of ‘confidential’ goods to East Asia

In 2013, Australia exported $32.4 billion of Other goods to East Asia, which constituted 14.8 per cent of our total exports to the region. The major component of this category was goods that have been classified as

‘confidential exports’ ($21.5 billion). Natural gas is one product which is classified as a confidential export.

While confidentiality provisions of Commonwealth legislation constrain the publication by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) of some trade activity, it is possible to find out more details about the types of commodities that are included in the ‘confidential exports’ item by comparing ABS export data with partner country import data (e.g. Japan’s imports from Australia).

It should be noted that data published by our major trading partners in the East Asian region are not fully compatible with data published by the ABS. This is due to timing, coverage and valuation differences that will exist between the two data sets. For example, most import data published by our trading partners in the East Asia region are on a c.i.f. (cost, insurance and freight) basis, whereas the ABS export data are published on an f.o.b. (free on board) basis. A valuation on a c.i.f. basis will be higher than a valuation on an f.o.b. basis as it includes the additional cost of insurance and freight.

More information on the types of differences found when comparing trade data between countries is available on the ABS website at www.abs.gov.au under the Economy – International trade theme page.

Table A will give the reader a guide to the major types of commodities that are imported from Australia by our East Asian trading partners, for which data are not published by the ABS due to legislated confidentiality constraints.

Table A: Imports of selected Australian commodities by our major trading partners in East Asia (a)

(A$ million)

% growth

2011 2012 2013 2012 to 2013

1. Salt

China 102 139 187 34.2

Indonesia 87 78 76 -3.5

Japan 194 135 140 3.6

Malaysia 16 18 21 18.8

Philippines 16 17 11 -33.3

Republic of Korea 102 96 100 4.6

Taiwan 96 104 103 -0.8

2. Silica sands and quartz sands

Japan 64 64 59 -8.6

Taiwan 39 33 41 24.6

3. Titanium ores

China 135 263 205 -22.1

Japan 70 99 41 -58.3

Republic of Korea 19 53 31 -41.1

Singapore 23 27 11 -57.4

Taiwan 75 64 71 10.0

Thailand 8 19 12 -39.0

4. Zirconium ores & concentrates

China 682 615 373 -39.3

Japan 77 68 35 -48.4

Malaysia 25 63 65 4.0

Taiwan 14 8 11 37.1

continued …

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Table A: Imports of selected Australian commodities by our major trading partners in East Asia (a)

(A$ million) (cont'd)

% growth

2011 2012 2013 2012 to 2013

5. Niobium, tantalum & vandium ores & concentrates

Thailand 33 41 5 -88.8

6. Crude petroleum

China From Jul-13 to Dec-13 1,567 ..

India From Jul-13 to Dec-13 267 ..

Japan From Jul-13 to Dec-13 540 ..

Malaysia From Nov-13 to Dec-13 na ..

Republic of Korea From Nov-13 to Dec-13 314 ..

7. Natural gas

China 637 608 655 7.6

Japan 10,421 12,622 14,376 13.9

Taiwan 178 217 58 -73.1

8. Alumina (aluminium oxide)

China 680 1,569 1,289 -17.8

Indonesia 174 175 158 -9.8

Japan 17 15 14 -4.8

Malaysia 58 94 328 249.0

9. Nickel & nickel alloys (b)

China 1,393 507 439 -13.4

Japan 354 295 233 -21.1

Malaysia 0 146 956 ..

Singapore 60 293 552 88.7

Taiwan 52 22 13 -39.7

(a) Partner country data has been converted to Australian dollars using period average exchange rates as published by the Reserve Bank. (b) Includes Nickel mattes, powder & flakes and Nickel unwrought only. Nickel waste, Nickel

oxide sinters, Nickel bars, Nickel plates & sheets, Nickel tubes & pipes and Other articles of nickel are not included

as ABS data for these items are not confidential.

Based on Global Trade Atlas.

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Direction of trade

• China remained Australia’s largest trading partner in East Asia in 2013. China was also the largest partner for both exports and imports of goods and services (see Box C).

• Japan was the second largest partner for two-way trade, exports and imports of goods and services (see Box D).

• ASEAN accounted for 25.2 per cent of Australia’s two-way trade with East Asia, valued at $92.6 billion in 2013 (up 1.1 per cent) (see Box E).

Major goods and services export markets

• Australia’s major export markets for 2013 in A$b

East Asia were 120

– China – up 28.1 per cent to $101.5 billion

90 – Japan – down 1.0 per cent to $49.5 billion

60 – the Republic of Korea – down 1.4 per cent

to $21.3 billion

30 – Singapore – down 11.1 per cent to

$9.2 billion.

0

China Japan Rep of Korea Singapore

Based on ABS trade data on DFAT STARS database, ABS catalogue 5368.0 and unpublished ABS data.

Major goods and services import sources

A$b • In 2013, Australia’s major import sources from

East Asia were 50

– China – up 6.3 per cent to $49.3 billion 40

– Japan – down 0.6 per cent to $21.2 billion 30

– Singapore – down 4.8 per cent to

20 $17.9 billion

– Thailand – up 9.1 per cent to $13.8 billion.

10 0

China Japan Singapore Thailand

Based on ABS trade data on DFAT STARS database, ABS catalogue 5368.0 and unpublished ABS data.

2012 2013

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Box C: China

Australia’s trade in goods and services with China increased 20.1 per cent to $150.9 billion in 2013. Since 2008, two-way trade has risen 15.0 per cent per annum, compared with 6.1 per cent for East Asia overall.

Exports of goods and services to China grew 28.1 per cent to $101.5 billion in 2013. The five year trend growth was 21.4 per cent per annum. This can be attributed mainly to the continuing strong growth of China’s economy in recent years, leading to high demand for many of the resources Australia exports, combined with strong commodity prices.

In 2013, exports of Iron ores & concentrates, Australia’s largest export to China, rose 37.0 per cent to

$52.7 billion. Other major merchandise exports include Coal (up 33.9 per cent to $9.1 billion); Gold (up 46.0 per cent to $8.1 billion); Copper (up 120.5 per cent to $2.1 billion); Other ores & concentrates – mainly Manganese and Zinc ores & concentrates (up 29.5 per cent to $2.0 billion) and Wool & other animal hair (incl tops) (up 3.6 per cent to $1.9 billion).

Services exports rose 9.4 per cent to $6.9 billion in 2013 with an increase in Travel services of 8.1 per cent to $6.1 billion. Within Travel services, Education-related travel exports rose 2.4 per cent to $4.0 billion.

China was the largest market for Australia’s Education-related travel exports, with 146,684 student enrolments⁴.

In 2013, imports of goods and services from China increased 6.3 per cent to $49.3 billion. Since 2008, import values have increased by an average of 6.4 per cent per annum. Major merchandise imports from China in 2013 were: Telecom equipment & parts (up 7.0 per cent to $4.9 billion); Computers (up 6.0 per cent to $4.6 billion); Furniture, mattresses & cushions (up 12.1 per cent to $2.0 billion); Prams, toys, games & sporting goods (up 3.9 per cent to $1.7billion); and Other textile clothing (up 7.1 per cent to $1.5 billion).

In 2013, Services imports rose 7.2 per cent to $2.1 billion. Within Services, Transport services rose 12.3 per cent to $546 million; Travel services (mainly Other personal travel) rose 8.2 per cent to $1.2 billion and Other services fell 3.6 per cent to $297 million.

Australia’s exports to China, 2013 Services

6.8%

Primary products 76.8%

Manuf.

4.5%

Other 11.9%

Australia’s imports from China, 2013 Other

Manuf.

91.9%

1.4%

Services 4.2%

Based on ABS data on the DFAT STARS database, ABS catalogue 5368.0.55.004 and unpublished ABS data.

4 Source: Australian Education International – International student data pivot table, June 2014.

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Box D: Japan

In 2013, two-way trade in goods and services with Japan decreased 0.9 per cent to $70.7 billion and accounted for 10.9 per cent of Australia’s total trade with the world, and 19.3 per cent with East Asia.

Exports of goods and services to Japan fell 1.0 per cent to $49.5 billion in 2013. Australia’s major merchandise exports to Japan included Natural gas (up 13.9 per cent to $14.4 billion – see Table A); Coal (down 8.5 per cent to $13.7 billion); Iron ores & concentrates (up 6.2 per cent to $9.6 billion); Beef, f.c.f.

(down 5.4 per cent to $1.4 billion); Copper ores & concentrates (down 11.9 per cent to $1.3 billion) and Aluminium (down 17.3 per cent to $975 million).

Services exports to Japan decreased 9.2 per cent to $2.0 billion in 2013. Exports of Transport services fell 10.3 per cent to $539 million, Travel services decreased 4.7 per cent to $1.2 billion and Other services fell 22.8 per cent to $274 million.

In 2013, imports of goods and services from Japan decreased 0.6 per cent to $21.2 billion. Major merchandise commodities imported from Japan included Passenger vehicles (down 8.2 per cent to

$6.7 billion); Refined petroleum (up 128.1 per cent to $3.4 billion); Goods vehicles (down 18.8 per cent to

$1.2 billion); Rubber tyres, treads & tubes (down 8.7 per cent to $670 million) and Tubes & pipes of iron or steel (up 15.0 per cent to $627 million).

Imports of Services from Japan increased 0.2 per cent to $2.3 billion in 2013. Within Services, Transport services fell 12.4 per cent to $938 million; Travel services increased 31.3 per cent to $747 million and Other services fell 6.4 per cent to $617million.

Australia’s merchandise exports to Japan

Sources: ABS data on the DFAT STARS database and Japanese import statistics for Natural gas.

0 5 10 15 20

Natural gas Coal Iron ores &

conc

Beef, f.c.f. Copper ores &

conc

Aluminium A$b

2012 2013

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Box E: ASEAN

In 2013, Australia’s two-way trade in goods and services with ASEAN increased 1.1 per cent to

$92.6 billion. Exports fell 0.5 per cent to $34.0 billion and imports increased 2.1 per cent to $58.6 billion.

Australia’s top merchandise exports to ASEAN in 2013 were Crude petroleum⁵(valued at $3.2 billion);

Wheat (down 24.6 per cent to $2.3 billion); Gold (down 4.1 per cent to $2.1 billion); Aluminium (down 0.9 per cent to $987 million) and Copper (down 45.9 per cent to $967 million). Exports of Services rose 5.8 per cent to $8.9 billion, with Transport services up 8.2 per cent to $1.0 billion, Travel services up 1.4 per cent to $5.2 billion and Other services up 13.7 per cent to $2.6 billion.

Education-related travel represents more than a third of Services exports. Of the top 10 countries sourcing education services from Australia, four were ASEAN members. They included Vietnam (3rd largest), Malaysia (5th), Indonesia (6th) and Thailand (7th). In total ASEAN received $3.3 billion or 21.9 per cent of Australia’s total Education-related travel exports to the world. ASEAN nations accounted for 106,063 student enrolments in 2013. This was 20.2 per cent of the total enrolments by overseas students. In Higher Education enrolments alone, ASEAN accounted for 21.6 per cent⁶.

In 2013, Australia’s major merchandise imports from ASEAN were Refined petroleum (down 5.3 per cent to

$9.5 billion); Crude petroleum (down 7.9 per cent to $8.6 billion); Goods vehicles (up 6.6 per cent to $2.9 billion); Passenger motor vehicles (up 56.6 per cent to $1.8 billion); and Telecom equipment & parts (up 20.3 per cent to $1.3 billion). Services imports rose 10.5 per cent to $13.2 billion, with Transport services up 3.1 per cent to $4.6 billion, Travel services up 6.7 per cent to $6.3 billion and Other services up 28.2 per cent to $1.8 billion.

Australia’s exports to ASEAN, 2013

26.3%

Other 11.1%

Australia’s imports from ASEAN, 2013 Services

Manuf.

21.9%

Manuf.

37.1%

Other 3.0%

Services 22.5%

Based on ABS data on the DFAT STARS database, ABS catalogue 5368.0.55.004 and unpublished ABS data.

5 Crude petroleum was made confidential from July 2013 onwards.

6 Source: Australian Education International – International student data pivot table, May 2013.

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Changes to ABS merchandise export statistics and its impact on partner country aggregates

Introduction

From June month 2013 onwards the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has been required to apply country level restrictions to a number of commodities to maintain confidentiality within its monthly export data. This has resulted in some commodities being excluded from partner country totals and State/Territory totals. At this stage 55 export commodities⁷will be excluded, with the major ones being Cane sugar, Nickel Mattes, Nickel alloys unworked and Non-industrial diamonds. From this period onwards a number of Country/State totals for exports will be under-reported in ABS monthly trade statistics. The ABS stated that data was confidentialised in this way to ensure that trade to individual countries/states could not be identified, even if they were unusually large⁸.

The 55 confidential export commodity codes excluded from partner country totals may not remain consistent over time. The ABS reviews confidentiality on a monthly basis and may add or remove some exports codes from this list. For example the ABS added a new commodity, Fresh or dried macadamia nuts to the list from October 2013.

Appendix A shows the full list of the export commodities affected at this stage and the time period the restriction covers.

Impact of this change

This change will have an impact on the useability of ABS merchandise trade statistics from June 2013 onwards. It means that users can no longer accurately determine the trend movements in exports by partner country (and by State) at the total level. For example, ABS published export data may show exports to the United States falling (excluding these confidential export commodities) where in fact they rose when including these confidential export commodities.

Table A shows that in 2013, 54 export commodities in aggregate represented 2.3 per cent of total Australian merchandise exports in the period June to December 2013 that will not be allocated to a partner country total (note that one export code was not included in the list until January 2014⁹).

Table A: Value of ‘No country details’

included in export totals¹⁰

Month

No country details

Total goods exports

Share of total exports

A$m A$m %

Jun-13 596 22,163 2.7

Jul-13 515 22,153 2.3

Aug-13 648 23,570 2.7

Sep-13 547 22,688 2.4

Oct-13 549 22,707 2.4

Nov-13 444 21,838 2.0

Dec-13 395 25,529 1.5

2013 3,694 160,648 2.3

Based on ABS trade data (June 2014) on DFAT STARS database.

7 Australian Harmonised Export Classification codes (AHECC) at the 8-digit level that have the confidentiality restrictions 'No commodity details' or 'No value details'. See the ABS publication International Merchandise Trade: Confidential Commodities List (catalogue 7352.055.001) -appendix 1 for a list of restrictions.

8 International Trade in goods and services Australia, June 2013 issue, page 4 (catalogue 5368.0).

9 AHECC code 2519.10.00 - Natural magnesium carbonate.

10 Data is included in total value of goods exports for Australia.

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Unpublished ABS export data for selected partner countries

Given the importance of accurate trade data, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) is working with the ABS to find a solution which will allow accurate partner country export totals on a financial and calendar year basis to be published while maintaining business confidentiality. As an interim solution, the ABS was able to provide annual export totals to DFAT for selected trading partners for 2013 that included the 54 confidential codes as an unpublished dataset.

The ABS provided actual merchandise export totals for Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Netherlands, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, the United Kingdom and the United States. These countries in aggregate accounted for around 80 per cent of the export data not allocated to a partner country in 2013 – $3.0 billion of the

$3.7 billion (refer to Table B).

Table B: Merchandise exports

Comparison between ABS annualised monthly published data and the unpublished actual export totals for 2013

Exports Difference

Country

Actual (A$m)

ABS published

(A$m) (a) $m %

Argentina 181 178 3 1.7

Belgium 1,248 1,177 71 6.0

Brazil 743 723 20 2.8

Canada 1,382 1,373 9 0.7

China 94,655 94,344 311 0.3

France 1,248 1,248 1 0.1

Germany 1,933 1,922 10 0.5

India 9,517 9,502 15 0.2

Indonesia 5,162 4,580 582 12.7

Italy 715 702 13 1.9

Japan 47,501 47,051 450 1.0

Malaysia 5,561 5,209 352 6.8

Netherlands 2,395 2,278 117 5.1

New Zealand 7,399 7,327 72 1.0

Republic of Korea 19,610 19,258 352 1.8

Saudi Arabia 2,189 2,181 8 0.4

South Africa 1,348 1,320 28 2.1

Taiwan 7,356 7,211 145 2.0

Thailand 4,909 4,896 13 0.3

United Kingdom 3,859 3,791 67 1.8

United States 9,580 9,242 338 3.7

Total above 2,978

Total confidential items excluded from partner country totals 3,694

Proportion covered above - % 80.6

(a) Published ABS annualised monthly merchandise trade data.

Based on ABS trade data (June 2014) on DFAT STARS database and unpublished ABS data.

The movement in exports between 2012 and 2013 will also be different when comparing the ABS annualised published monthly export data compared to the unpublished actual annual data – refer to Table C. Note in the table that the direction of growth changes from a fall (in ABS annualised published monthly export data) to a rise for Indonesia, Thailand and the United States (using actual annual data) for 2013.

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Table C: Merchandise exports

Movements between 2012 and 2013 for selected countries

Country ABS 2012 2013 Growth

Data A$m A$m A$m

Argentina Actual 273 181 -92

Published (a) 273 178 -95

Belgium Actual 1,669 1,248 -421

Published (a) 1,669 1,177 -492

Brazil Actual 991 743 -248

Published (a) 991 723 -268

Canada Actual 1,645 1,382 -263

Published (a) 1,645 1,373 -272

China Actual 72,973 94,655 21,682

Published (a) 72,973 94,344 21,371

France Actual 1,077 1,248 171

Published (a) 1,077 1,248 171

Germany Actual 1,989 1,933 -56

Published (a) 1,989 1,922 -67

India Actual 12,213 9,517 -2,696

Published (a) 12,213 9,502 -2,711

Indonesia Actual 4,857 5,162 305

Published (a) 4,857 4,580 -277

Italy Actual 834 715 -119

Published (a) 834 702 -132

Japan Actual 47,794 47,501 -293

Published (a) 47,794 47,051 -743

Malaysia Actual 5,076 5,561 485

Published (a) 5,076 5,209 133

Netherlands Actual 2,914 2,395 -519

Published (a) 2,914 2,278 -636

New Zealand Actual 7,414 7,399 -15

Published (a) 7,414 7,327 -87

Republic of Korea Actual 19,800 19,610 -190

Published (a) 19,800 19,258 -542

Saudi Arabia Actual 1,734 2,189 455

Published (a) 1,734 2,181 447

South Africa Actual 1,525 1,348 -177

Published (a) 1,525 1,320 -205

Taiwan Actual 8,007 7,356 -651

Published (a) 8,007 7,211 -796

Thailand Actual 4,897 4,909 12

Published (a) 4,897 4,896 -1

United Kingdom Actual 6,699 3,859 -2,840

Published (a) 6,699 3,791 -2,908

United States Actual 9,380 9,580 200

Published (a) 9,380 9,242 -138

(a) Published ABS annualised monthly merchandise trade data.

Based on ABS trade data (June 2014) on DFAT STARS database and unpublished ABS data.

% -33.6 -34.7 -25.2 -29.5 -25.0 -27.1 -16.0 -16.5 29.7 29.3 15.9 15.9 -2.8 -3.3 -22.1 -22.2 6.3 -5.7 -14.2 -15.8 -0.6 -1.6 9.6 2.6 -17.8 -21.8 -0.2 -1.2 -1.0 -2.7 26.2 25.8 -11.6 -13.4 -8.1 -9.9 0.2 -0.0 -42.4 -43.4 2.1 -1.5

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DFAT will be using the actual export data for these countries in all its output (including in its publications, country and economic factsheets, trade pivot tables and spreadsheets)¹¹. To help users identify where the actual export data has been applied in DFAT’s trade statistical publications, the data cells have been shaded in the relevant tables in the statistical trade publications.

Impact of the change on countries which the ABS did not provide actual data

Users should be aware that countries not covered by the unpublished ABS annual data may not be showing the actual magnitude of exports for 2013 or movements in exports between 2012 and 2013. To help users determine the likely impact, DFAT has conducted an analysis of the impact by analysing partner country import data for 2013.

This analysis included 43 of the 55 confidential codes only¹².

It should be noted that there are differences between ABS merchandise export statistics and partner country import statistics such as timing, coverage and valuation differences which could impact on the accuracy of this analysis. Therefore this analysis should be used as a guide to the impact on the under-reporting only.

Appendix B shows the results of this analysis for all countries that have so far reported 2013 trade data¹³. For most partner countries not covered by the ABS actual export data, the impact is minor and is less than 2 per cent of total exports. However for a number of key countries the impact is more significant, such as for Finland and Singapore.

Impact on country groups

In terms of country groups, DFAT has applied the actual export data for the selected countries obtained from the ABS. This means that all country group exports totals will still be underreported to some extent for the partner countries not covered by this unpublished ABS data. For example ASEAN includes the actual export data for Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, but not for Brunei, Burma, Cambodia, Laos, Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam.

Conclusion

This issue is going to make it difficult to determine actual trends in Australia’s total exports (and imports¹⁴) by partner country on an ongoing basis. DFAT is working with the ABS towards a solution that better meets the needs of trade users for accurate partner country trade data on an annual basis while maintaining the confidentiality of businesses that report data to the ABS.

All users are advised to use 2013 ABS partner country merchandise export data with caution for the countries not covered by the unpublished ABS data. ABS merchandise trade by State/Territory is also affected by the change though DFAT has no information to determine the magnitude of the under reporting for individual States or Territories.

For further information on confidentiality in ABS merchandise trade statistics please refer to the ABS publication – catalogue. 5372.0.55.001 - International Merchandise Trade: Confidential Commodities List.

Author: Frank Bingham

Economic Advocacy & Analysis Branch [email protected]

Released: August 2014

11 DFAT has also adjusted the published ABS trade data to include exports of Cane sugar and Non-industrial diamonds by partner country that is released by the ABS as a special data service. As data for Cane sugar is released after a six month time lag (the ABS has released data up to December 2013 at August 2014).

12 It is only possible to match ABS and partner country codes at the 6-digit level. Codes at the 8-digit level are country specific and cannot be matched. DFAT could not match 11 of the 54 AHECC codes.

13 On the trade databases that DFAT has access to which includes the United Nations’ Comtrade database and the Global Trade Atlas.

14 A similar issue has existed with ABS merchandise import data since September 2008, refer to DFAT’s article on Australia’s imports of aircraft & parts - update for 2013 for more details (http://www.dfat.gov.au/publications/stats-pubs/trade_statistical_articles.html).

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APPENDIX A

AHECC codes not included in ABS partner country export totals

AHECC SITCR4 Date of Effect

Date of

Cessation Restriction applied Commodity Description Count

08026100 057.79 Oct-13 No Commodity Details Fresh or dried macadamia nuts, in shell 1

10049010 045.20 Jun-13 No Commodity Details

Oats, in bulk (excl. seed and oats in

bags) 2

Rice, whole long grain, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether or not polished or

glazed 3

10064000 042.32 Jun-13 No Commodity Details Broken rice 4

12149021 081.13 Jun-13

No Commodity Details (latest 6 months only)

Lupins, whether or not in the form of pellets (incl. feed for animals during a

voyage) 5

Saps and extracts of pyrethrum or of the

roots of plants containing rotenone 6

15122100 421.21 Jun-13 Feb-14 No Commodity Details

Crude cotton-seed oil, not chemically

modified 7

Refined cotton-seed oil and its fractions,

not chemically modified 8

17011400 061.11 Jun-13

No Commodity Details (Commodity details available quarterly with a

6 month lag)

Raw cane sugar (excl. that specified in Subheading Note 2 to Chapter 17), in solid form, not containing added

flavouring or colouring matter 9

Uncooked pasta (incl. spaghetti, macaroni, noodles, lasagne, gnocchi, ravioli and canelloni), containing eggs, not stuffed with meat or other substances

or otherwise prepared 10

Uncooked pasta (incl. spaghetti, macaroni, noodles, lasagne, gnocchi, ravioli and canelloni), not containing eggs, not stuffed with meat or other

substances or otherwise prepared 11 19024000 098.91 Jun-13 No Commodity Details Couscous, whether or not prepared 12

22030020 112.30 Jun-13 No Commodity Details Canned beer made from malt 13

Beer made from malt (excl. bottled and

canned) 14

Salt (excl. table salt) and pure sodium

chloride (incl. denatured salt), 15

Silica sands and quartz sands, whether

or not coloured 16

25191000 278.24 Jan-14 No Commodity Details

Natural magnesium carbonate

(magnesite) 17

Fused magnesia; dead-burned (sintered) magnesia, whether or not containing small quantities of other oxides added before sintering; and other magnesium

oxide, whether or not pure 18

Tar distilled from coal, from lignite or from peat and other mineral tars, whether or not dehydrated or partially distilled (incl.

reconstituted tars) 19

Naphthalene from the distillation of high

temperature coal tar 20

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AHECC codes not included in ABS partner country export totals (cont’d)

Date of

Carbon (carbon blacks and other forms

of carbon) 21

28181000 522.67 Jun-13 No Commodity Details Artificial corundum 22

Sodium triphosphate (sodium

tripolyphosphate) 23

28362000 523.72 Jun-13 No Commodity Details Disodium carbonate 24

Sodium hydrogencarbonate (sodium

bicarbonate) 25

28371101 523.81 Jun-13 No Commodity Details Sodium cyanide (CAS 143-33-9) 26

Benzene, chemically or commercially

pure 27

Concentrates of poppy straw, containing

by weight 50% or more of alkaloids 28

Codeine and its salts, an alkaloid and/or

derivative of opium 29

Thebaine and its salts, an alkaloid and/or

derivative of opium 30

Other derivatives & alkaloids of opium,

including salts, as listed in 2939.11 31

Vegetable alkaloids, salts, ethers, esters

& other derivs (excl. opium alkaloids, cinchona & rye ergot & deriv & salts, caffeine & ephedrines & salts, theophylline & aminophylline (theophylline-ethylenediamine) &

derivatives & salts) 32

Activated carbon (excl. those having the character of medicaments or put up in

retail packs as deodorisers) 33

Polyethylene having a specific gravity of

less than 0.94, in primary forms 34

Polyethylene, in primary forms, having a specific gravity at 20 degrees Celsius of 0.94 or more, calculated on an additive- free polymer basis (high density

polyethylene (HDPE)) 35

Poly(ethylene terephthalate), in primary

forms 36

71023100 667.22 Jun-13

No Commodity Details (Country and Value details available quarterly)

Non-industrial diamonds, unworked or simply sawn, cleaved or bruted, not

mounted or set 37

Ferro-manganese containing by weight more than 2% of carbon in primary forms, in granules or powders or in forms

obtained by continuous casting 38

Ferro-silico-manganese in primary forms, in granules or powders or in forms

obtained by continuous casting 39

Semi-finished products of iron or non- alloy steel of rectangular (excl. square) cross-section nes, containing by weight

less than 0.25% of carbon 40

Flat-rolled products of iron or non-alloy steel, of a width of 600 mm or more, not in coils, not further worked than hot-

rolled; of a thickness exceeding 10 mm 41

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AHECC codes not included in ABS partner country export totals (cont’d)

Date of

Coils of iron or non-alloy steel, not further worked than cold-rolled (cold

reduced), of a width of 600 mm or more,

of a thickness of less than 0.5 mm 42

72104900 67413 Jun-13 No Commodity Details

Flat-rolled products of iron or non-alloy steel, with a width of 600 mm or more (excl. corrugated), plated or coated with

zinc (excl. electrolytically) 43 73241000 69751 Jun-13 No Commodity Details Sinks and wash basins, of stainless steel 44

75011000 28421 Jun-13 No Commodity Details Nickel mattes 45

75021000 68311 Jun-13 No Commodity Details Unwrought nickel, not alloyed 46

75022000 68312 Jun-13 No Commodity Details Unwrought nickel alloys 47

75040000 68323 Jun-13 No Commodity Details Nickel powders and flakes 48

Self-propelled mechanical front-end

shovel loaders 49

85041000 77123 Jun-13 No Commodity Details Ballasts for discharge lamps or tubes 50

Base stations incorporating reception apparatus, for radio-telephony or radio

telegraphy 51

85176260 76412 Jun-13 Mar-14 No Commodity Details

Transmission apparatus incorporating reception apparatus, for radio-telephony

or radio-telegraphy (excl. base stations) 52

Cruise ships, excursion boats and similar vessels principally designed for the transport of persons; ferry-boats of

all kinds 53

Motorboats (excl. outboard motorboats) for pleasure or sports, non-cargo (under

own power) 54

Vessels (incl. lifeboats but excl. warships

and rowing boats) 55

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APPENDIX B

DFAT's estimates of export data not allocated to countries in ABS merchandise export statistics based on partner country import data analysis – 2013

Partner country (c)

% underreporting in ABS export data for 2013 (b)

0-2 3-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 20+

Algeria x

Argentina (d) x

Armenia x

Austria x

Barbados x

Belgium (d) x

Bolivia x

Bosnia-Herzegovina x

Brazil (d) x

Bulgaria x

Canada (d) x

Chile x

China (a) x

Colombia x

Croatia x

Cyprus x

Czech Republic x

Denmark x

Ecuador x

Egypt x

El Salvador x

Estonia x

Finland x

France (d) x

French Polynesia x

Germany (d) x

Ghana x

Greece x

Hong Kong, SAR of China x

Hungary x

Iceland x

India (d) x

Indonesia (d) x

Ireland x

Italy (d) x

Japan (d) x

Jordan x

Kazakhstan x

Latvia x

Lebanon x

Lithuania x

Luxembourg x

Malawi x

Malaysia (d) x

Malta x

Mauritius x

Mexico x

Mongolia x

Montenegro x

Mozambique x

Nambia x

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Partner country (c)

% underreporting in ABS export data for 2013 (b)

0-2 3-5 5-10 11-15 16-20 20+

Netherlands (d) x

New Zealand (d) x

Niger x

Norway x

Pakistan x

Panama x

Paraguay x

Peru x

Philippines x

Poland x

Portugal x

Republic of Korea (d) x

Romania x

Russian Federation x

Samoa x

Saudi Arabia (d) x

Serbia x

Singapore x

Slovak Republic x

Slovenia x

South Africa (d) x

Spain x

Sweden x

Switzerland x

Taiwan (d) x

Tanzania x

Thailand (d) x

Turkey x

United Kingdom (d) x

United States (d) x

Uruguay x

Yemen x

Zambia x

(a) Based on analysing partner country import data for 43 of the 54 confidential export codes.

(b) The analysis is based on a full 12 month period. For the calendar year 2013, the percentage under-reporting may be less as the confidentiality has only been in place for 7 months of 2013 (from June 2013).

(c) Only includes countries that have reported trade data for 2013.

(d) Based on ABS unpublished data and is the actual under reporting of exports for 2013.

Based on UN Comtrade database, Global Trade Atlas and ABS unpublished data.

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Statistical tables

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