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Iran Economy Update
Issue 36/2017 TUESDAY MARCH 14RD
Preliminary results of 1395 census shows a 1.24 pct population growth rate
The preliminary results of Iran’s national census shows that the country’s population in 1395 was 79,926,270 which show an increase of 4,776,601 persons (1.24%) compared with the base year of 1390. Also, the number of families reached 24,196,035, indicating an increase of 3,010,388 compared with five years ago.
Total population (million) 80 Number of families (million) 24.196 Average population growth 1.24%
Unemployment in 2016 12.4%
immigrant population (million) 4.709
population growth rate
Urban areas 1.97%
Rural areas -0.73%
Unemployment rate in details
Male 10.5%
Female 20.7%
Youth aged 15-24 29.4%
Youth aged 15-29 25.9%
Explaining about the status of unemployment in the country, Omid-Ali Parsa, the head of Statistical Center of Iran (SCI) said that similar to other countries in the world, any person who engages in paid work for at least one hour a week is classed as being in employment. He however admitted that the country is also facing underemployment the rate of which is 10%. “If it is to be estimated the highest level of unemployment in the country and all the people working less than 44 hours per week be considered as jobless, the country’s unemployment rate would be 22% but the [accepted] definition of unemployment in the world is that a person working one hour per week is in employment,” said Parsa who was speaking at a press conference this week to announce preliminary results of the 1395 census. He said that the country’s unemployment rate reached to 12.4% in 2016 from 11% in 2015.
On 29 Dec 2016, Massoud Nili, a renowned economist and the senior economic adviser of President Rouhani had said that this government has created 704,000 jobs annually, and attributed the current unemployment problem to the problems that have existed and remained unresolved since 35 years ago. The Wednesday edition of the daily Donyay-e Eghtesad raised the basic question that why in spite of creating more than 700,000 jobs annually by the government, the country’s unemployment rate has increased from 11% in 2015 to 12.4% in 2016. the newspaper gives the answer itself, explaining that “The key to this puzzle is the change that has occurred in the labor force participation in Iran. Indeed, the reason for the increase in unemployment rate is the increase in the number of jobseekers.” The newspaper argues that from 2005 to 2014, there were 600,000 new entrants into the job market annually while in the past two years, this figure has increased to one million new entrants annually.
Donyay-e Eghtesad wrote: Experts believe that the reason for the increase in labor force participation rate in the past two years is the entrance of the people born in the 1980s when the number of birth in Iran unprecedentedly peaked.
2 Population 79,926,270
Men 40,498,442 Women 39,427,828
Population 79,926,270 Urban population 59,146,847 Rural population 20,730,625
The statistics shows that Tehran (8.737,510 million), Mashhad (3,372,660), Isfahan (2,243,249), Karaj (1,973,470), Shiraz (1,869,001), Tabriz (1,773,033), Ahvaz (1,302,591), Qom (1,292,283), Kermanshah (1,083,833) and Uroumieh (1,040,565) are the top ten Iranian populated cities.
CBI says 9-month GDP growth rate in Iran reached 11.6%
The Central Bank of Iran has announced that the economic growth rate during the first nine months of the current Iranian year (covering a period from 21 March to 20 Dec 2016) was 11.6 percent if oil is included, and 1.9% if oil excluded. “The GDP growth rate reached 11.9% in summer 2016 from 7.4% in spring, and raised to 15.7% in autumn 2016,” said Peyman Ghorbani, the CBI deputy for economic affairs in a press conference on Tuesday. The CBI has released a report on details, a summary of which is presented in the following two tables.
GDP growth Sectors Rate Spring 2016:
7.4% if oil is included and - 1.5% excluding oil
Agriculture 3.5%
Oil 56.1%
Industry & Mine -4.9%
Services -0.5%
Summer 2016: 11.9% with oil and 2.8% without oil
Agriculture 4.1%
Oil 65.4%
Industry & Mine 3.1%
Services 2.3%
Autumn 2016:
15.7% if oil included, and 4.6% oil excluded
Agriculture 5%
Oil 74.6%
Industry & Mine 2.4%
Services 5.6%
GDP growth Sectors Rate 9-month growth (21
Mar–20 Dec 16):
11.6% with oil and 1.9% without oil
Agriculture 4.2%
Oil 65.4%
Industry & Mine 0.3%
Services 2.4%
Source: CBI report on latest economic developments, Esfand 1395, page 22
President Rouhani said on Monday that “Achieving a double-digit economic growth rate is something unbelievable not only for our enemies, but also by many of our friends in Iran.” “This is a tremendous achievement,” he added.
IRISL denies it sought flotation on London Stock Exchange
The Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL) on Tuesday denied the news published by Reuters a day earlier that the company is seeking a possible listing on the London Stock Exchange (LSE). On March 13th, Reuters quoted four Iranian officials and two western sources as saying that the IRISL has held meetings in London to discuss being listed on the TSE though
Men 51%
Wome n 49%
Urban populati
on 74%
Rural populati
on 26%
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its efforts have been thwarted so far by US sanctions that still scares banks off Iranian business.
Four Iranian officials and two western sources have confirmed the news and two of the Iranians officials declared that meetings had already been held with the LSE in London about a possible float for IRISL. Mehr news wrote on Tuesday that IRISL has announced “this company has made no effort and request, neither in the past nor at present, to float its stocks on the TSE.”
Russia-Iran Oil-for-Goods’ deal volume could reach $45 billion annually
A Russian news website wrote on March 13th that the total volume of goods that Russia could deliver to Iran under the oil-for-goods deal could reach $45bn annually. In an interview with Sputnik, Russian trade representative in Iran Andrei Lugansky confirmed that the "legally viable program stipulates 50% monetary payment and 50-percent payment-in-goods in exchange for Iranian oil.” "The 50-percent coming from Russia are railroad items, heavy trucks, by which I mean our buses, the aviation industry (equipment for airfields, planes themselves)," he said.
In a related development, Sputnik has quoted Iran’s ICT Minister Mahmoud Vaezi as saying on Monday that “the road map toward the development of cooperation between Iran and Russia in the medium and long-term perspective may be signed during the upcoming visit of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to Russia in late March.” Sputnik also quoted Mehdi Sanaie, Iran’s Ambassador to Russia as saying that "The growth of Iran's trade relations with Russia was the biggest last year in comparison with any other country… It seems to me that this trend will continue, and we will reach a considerable trade of $10 billion in the coming two or three years."
Minimum monthly wage for 1396 was increased by 14.5 pct, reaching 930,000 tomans In a meeting between representatives of the country’s employers and workers as well as the government agents, the minimum wage for the Persian year of 1396 was set at 930,000 tomans per month ($287 at the official exchange rate), which is 14.5 percent higher than the minimum wage of the current year, Mehr news reported on Wednesday. The meeting was chaired by Ali Rabiei, the minister of Labor, Cooperative and Social Welfare and along with representatives of the worker and employer communities, the session was also participated by the representatives of the ministry of Economic Affairs & Finance and ministry of Industry, Mine & Trade.
“Therefore, the minimum daily wage will increase from about 27,000 tomans this year to about 31,000 tomans per day in 1396. Hence, the minimum amount of Nowruz gift that employers would pay [based on this daily salary] in March 2018 would be 1.86 million tomans and the maximum amount would be 2.79 million tomans,” wrote Mehr news. The news agency wrote that the participants at this session had held another meeting on Feb 27 to discuss the minimum monthly living cost of an Iranian family of 3.5, and agreed on the minimum cost of 2.489 million tomans.
