S ․ U ․ M ․ M ․ A ․ R ․ Y
SUM M ARY
Futures of National Territory (Ⅰ)
Yong-Woo Lee, Il-Ho Chung, Soonja Lee, Sehil Byeon, Sang Yon Lim, Ji-Young Lim, and Byung-Chul Lim
This study is the first of the three-year research work on national territorial foresight to foresee national territory in full-scale research works later, this first-year research seeks to develop the relevant futures research m ethodology and to apply it to the housing sector for test purposes. As the starting point of later research works, this study m ay propose the 10 trends and issues in future national territory, which would be affected by m egatrends.
Chapter I. Introduction
Chapter 1 consists of the research background, goals and expectations, research scope of space, contents, and tim e, and research methods and framework. Megatrends - low fertility rate & aging society, climate change, political and econom ic strategification of natural resources and energy, advancem ent and fusion of science and
technology, diversified social and personal values, econom ic globalization, political multi-polarization, etc. can affect national territory gradually but significantly now as well as in the future. In addition to m egatrends, Korean unification m akes the future of national territory even m ore uncertain. Such uncertainty surrounding future national territory m ay require futures research.
The research goals of this three-year foresight work are to develop the relevant futures research m ethodology that can reflect the characteristics of the Korean national territory, to foresee national territory, and to suggest the policy directions for building a desirable national territory. Specifically, the first-year study(2009) aim s at establishing the relevant futures research methodology and applying it to propose the trends and issues on the future national territory as a draft. The goals of the second-year study(2010) would be the sectoral foresight of the national territory such as housing, natural environment, transportation, and industry. The goals of the third-year study(2011) would be regional foresight such as m etropolises and m etropolitan regions, sm all-and-m edium cities, farm ing-m ountain-fishing villages, and seas and islands.
The spatial scopes of this foresight works are the Korean peninsular and her islands and seas. For the research contents, this study differentiates national territory into three com ponents: physical attributes(natural environm ent and seas), function and policy(housing, industry and transportation, etc.), and spatial structure. The target year of this foresight work is 2030, 20 years from now.
This study builds and utilizes the integrated futures research m ethodology for the national territory. This study also surveys the opinions of the public and experts to draw the national territorial trends and issues. The expert survey is conducted using the online, real-tim e delphi technique.
<Flow and concept of the integrated national territorial foresight methodology>
Chapter 2. Developing the Futures Research Methodology for the National Territory
Chapter 2 develops the methodology for foreseeing the national territory of Korea. Specifically, this chapter clarifies the m eaning, goals, and objects of national territorial foresight, defines the characteristics of the foresight, and finds the implications from the relevant literature and methodology. National territorial foresight is the work of predicting the national territory to live in considering the m egatrends and Korean unification variables and drawing up a desirable vision on the national territory. This foresight study seeks to draw flexibly but system atically a picture of the national territory in the year 2030. The futures of the national territory could take concrete shape with scenarios by drawing national territorial issues.
The national territory can be viewed as a foresight object composite of the demand side of people's daily usages, supply side of both private and public usages, and aggregate spatial structure of the two. This study has a distinct feature, i.e., provides m ultiple future scenarios for the national territory defined operationally. This study is a futures research on the national territory covering the period 20 years from now without policy or strategy interventions and a defensive work to develop strategies preparing for potential future visions including worst case.
This study integrates a variety of foresight methods and builds integrated futures research methodology for the national territory, which are reflective of Korean national territorial characteristics. The m ethodology consists of a sequence of stages em ploying its relevant foresight methods to find megatrends and their influences on the national territory using m eta analysis and futures wheel, to set the national territorial trends and issues using expert panel, public survey, and online, real-tim e delphi technique, to draw and analyze variables affecting national territorial issues using AH P and cross im pact analysis, to develop scenarios, to build a future vision, and to propose policy sets.
The scenarios of national issues are m ade based on som e of im portant variables developed with a scenario workshop technique. Thus, national territorial foresight m ay result from both national territorial trends and scenarios through which the m ultiple futures of the national territory can be predicted.
Chapter 3. Megatrends and the National Territory
Chapter 3 analyzes the m egatrends that m ay affect the national territory; they are reorganized with m eta analysis. The influences of the 6 megatrends are then drawn vis-a-vis the national territory by sector using the futures wheel and im pact m atrix.
Megatrends refer to trends in the world, which may become a global village. This study reorganizes the m egatrends from recent related literature into 6 fields: politics, econom y, environm ent, population, socio-culture, and science & technology(S&T).
The politics field includes dom estic and international m ulti-polarization particularly m ulti-polarized world, increasing terrors and local wars, governance, and decentralization; the econom y field covers the global econom y whose features include increasing regional and international econom ic cooperation, multinational econom ic network, and diversified global financial markets. The environment field
tackles climate change and resource scarcity. The population field covers the low fertility rate and aging society resulting in population decrease and sm aller fam ily size in Korea. The socio-culture field is intertwined with individualism , pursuing im proved quality of life, labor flexibility, multicultural society, and improvement of women's status; thus possibly diversified values and culture. Finally, the S&T field covers the advancem ent and fusion of IT, BIT, ET, and NT.
Field Megatrends Details
politics multi-polarized politics
multi-polarized world, increasing terrors and local wars, diffusion of governance, decentralization
economy economic
polarization
increasing regional and international economic cooperation, expanding multinational network, diversified international financial
markets, higher-rise industrial structure environment climate change and
resource scarcity
global warming, disasters and disease threat, energy and resource scarcity
population low-fertility rate and
aging society population decrease, aging society, smaller family size
socio-culture diversified value and culture
pursuing improved quality of life, increasing individualism, multi-cultural society, labor flexibility, and improving the status of
women science &
technology
advancement and
fusion of S&T advancement and fusion of IT, BT, NT, ET
<6 Megatrends>
Megatrends may affect the value systems and behaviors of the actors in the national territory - persons, firms, and governments - and change the physical forms and characteristics, spatial functions and structure, and policy of the national territory. The following are the influences of six m egatrends on the national territory by sector:
The natural environm ent of the national territory m ay imply the increase in the value of ecosystem s specifically waterfronts, m ountain areas, and farm lands resulting from clim ate change and diversified values and culture and indicate subtropicalization especially in ecosystem s, bio-species, and crops.
The ocean m ay indicate that the developm ent of S&T m ay enable the excavation of seabed resources, tidal power, and marine cities given the increasing interest in the ocean due to the scarcity of inland resources.
H ousing m ay see the increasing demand for sm all housing due to the low fertility rate, population decreases, and sm aller fam ily size.
Buildings m ay becom e m ore energy-efficient, sm arter, and higher-rise with diverse designs in response to clim ate change and as a result of the developm ent of S&T.
Urban management may require plans and policies that may pursue environm ent-friendliness, efficiency of resources and energy, public health and safety, and am enities that reflect clim ate change, resource scarcity, and diversified value and culture.
The industry m ay indicate the changes in the industrial locations and structure resulting from FTAs, global production network, and advent of new industries.
Tourism may indicate the increasing demands of eco-tourism, special interest tourism , and green tourism utilizing natural environm ents.
M oreover, transportation m ay induce the introduction of green and high-speed intelligent transport modes due to resource scarcity and developm ent of S&T.
The spatial structure m ay im ply the new em ergence of the west-coastal and east-coastal axes as well as the trans-west coast and trans-east coast econom ic regions.
Chapter 4. Proposed National Territorial Trends and Issues
Chapter 4 selects and explains the proposed national territorial trends and issues. The trends and issues are first selected by the influences of m egatrends on national territory. They are then reviewed num erous tim es through surveys and expert checks for their relevance and importance. The 10 trends and issues are proposed as a draft, which will be adjusted during the follow-up studies in the second and third years.
N ational territorial trends selected from m egatrends refer to the trends that m ay have certain and consistent directions in the national territory field in term s of forms, function, and structure. National territorial issues may im ply significant changes in the daily activities of the people, profit-generating activities of firm s, and policym aking of governm ents and m ay depend on m egatrends and national territorial trends. Considering the difficulty in predicting the directions and natures of national territorial issues, a set of scenarios linked to the issues would be developed as an important outcome of national territorial forecasting.
This study proposes the following 10 selected national territorial trends and issues:
N ational territorial trend 1: The national territory becom es subtropical.
N ational territorial trend 2: Ocean-related developm ents such as m arine energies, seabed m inerals, deep sea water, and m arine cities increase.
N ational territorial trend 3: Farm lands, m ountainous lands, and waterfronts are utilized further as leisure-tourism resource.
N ational territorial trend 4: H ousing and building types becom e diversified through intelligent functions such as carbon-free housing and buildings, ubiquitous housing and buildings, terraced houses, m obile hom es, super high-rise buildings, emergency housing, and m edically equipped housing.
National territorial trend 5: Underground spaces and mid-air spaces are more intensively developed, with urban spaces becom ing m ore m ulti-functional and com plex.
National territorial trend 6: Urban services are diverse and designed to be barrier-free for the aged, foreigners, fem ales, and handicapped to enhance their daily life and econom ic activities.
N ational territorial trend 7: The existing industrial com plexes are reutilized, and resource-recycled eco-industrial complexes are developed.
N ational territorial trend 8: Eco-friendly autom obiles(hybrid cars, hydrogen fuel cell cars, electric cars, etc.), high-speed transportation m odes(ultra-sonic air plains, wig-boats, m agnetic levitation trains), and intelligent transportation infrastructure(smart roads) are generalized.
N ational territorial trend 9: The m etropolitan regions with m ega-cities, such as Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Kwangju, and Daejeon are strengthening in term s of international trade, business, com m ercial, cultural, and industrial activities.
N ational territorial trend 10: The Northeast Asian Econom ic Block of Korea-China-Russia-Japan em erges.
National territorial issue 1 - Safety: W ill the subtropicalized national territory be safe from disasters and diseases?
N ational territorial issue 2 - Housing: W ill residential behavior change due to low fertility rate & aging society, diversified values and culture, clim ate change and resource scarcity, and S&T developm ent?
N ational territorial issue 3 - Industrial location: W ill the industrial location be changed by econom ic globalization and S&T development?
N ational territorial issue 4 - Transportation system : W ill the transportation system change due to S&T developm ent and fusion, climate change, and resource scarcity?
National territorial issue 5 - Land use: Will the changes in residential behavior, industrial location, and transportation systems affect land use?
N ational territorial issue 6 - Future of peripheral regions(farm ing-m ountain-fishing villages) and islands: W ill they fall behind or be vitalized?
N ational territorial issue 7 - Future of cities: W hat kinds of cities will grow or decline in the future?
N ational territorial issue 8 - Future of urban regions: W ill urban regions be either scattered sprawls or decentralized concentration?
National territorial issue 9 - Future of national growth axis: Will the existing Seoul-Busan axis rem ain dom inant, or will new growth axes em erge?
N ational territorial issue 10 - Future of spatial structure: W ill the spatial structure of the national territory be either m onocentric concentration or polycentric networks?
The follow-up studies will write a set of scenarios linked to the national territorial issues to foresee the future of national territory.
Chapter 5. Foresight test of the national territory: Housing sector
Chapter 5 foresees experim entally the housing sector using the integrated foresight m ethodology developed in Chapter 2. This chapter first finds the influences of m egatrends on the housing sector, which are differentiated into housing trends and issues. As an exam ple, this chapter develops a set of scenario on the futures of apartments am ong the housing issues.
The housing foresight is a complex topic because housing may have physical, cultural, welfare, and economic aspects. The influences of m egatrends are drawn for the future housing.
The concept of housing is defined with three different aspects:
physical aspects(housing types and locations), sociocultural aspects(residential culture), and economic aspects(housing markets). This study finds the direction of influence of m egatrends on housing, public concerns, and importance of the future national territory using the delphi technique; housing trends and issues are then proposed.
An issue is selected from among the proposed residence issues that may have significant im pacts in the future. A set of residence scenarios for the selected residence issue are then developed. The m ost uncertain but significant variables are chosen to develop the set of residence scenarios. The future housing is suggested by combining the megatrends, national territorial trends, housing trends, and set of housing scenarios.
Finally, this chapter develops a desirable housing vision including policy alternatives for the vision.
Two trends and three issues are selected for the housing foresight.
The two trends are the generalization of green intelligent housing and increasing interest in residential am enities. The three issues include the apartm ent's dom inance and continuation, rise in real estate prices, and deepening disparities of residential conditions.
The critical issue in the housing sector is the "apartment's dominance and continuation: what would the future of apartment be in 2030?" The variables affecting the future of apartm ents are found, and their uncertainty and importance are reviewed using the delphi technique and AHP. The m ain variables for com posing the set of housing scenarios include low fertility rate & aging society and redevelopm ent․ reconstruction. Finally, a 2x2 scenario m atrix is m ade by taking into account the directions of the two main variables. The four scenarios are
"high-rise apartm ent", "slum m ed apartm ent", "low-rise low density residential com plex" and "remodeled apartm ent".
The highly probably futures of housing based on the four housing scenarios are drawn in linkage with the residential trends and issues.
Apartm ents will continue to be dom inant, but their types m ay be diversified. Specifically, custom-made apartments reflecting the incom e, age, family size and structure, and lifestyle will be provided. Apartments will rem ain an efficient alternative of land use in Korea and can m eet the various dem ands of different lifestyles.
The future vision of residence is "to develop various intelligent residential spaces with full amenities." The following are the goals of fulfilling the vision: to develop green intelligent․ residential environm ents; to respond to em erging housing dem ands; to upgrade deteriorating residential environm ents.
The implications of this housing foresight include the need to test various m ethods to analyze the im portance of issues and to set m ore than two variables that may reflect the characteristics of the issues. These implications will be taken into account in the subsequent research works
Chapter Six. Conclusion
Chapter Six discusses the characteristics, lim itation, policy contributions, and future works of this study.
The policy contributions of this study are as follows: First, this study suggests the vision on the national territory where the current and next generations will live through system atic and flexible foresight; Second, this study can contribute to deciding the policy directions and developing tasks and strategies of the sectors of the national territory in the future;
Third, this study can help develop many policy alternatives with the proposed scenarios; Fourth, the findings of this study can be utilized to coordinate intra-governm ental decision m aking; Fifth, this foresight on the national territory can draw the attention of the public and inform them of the visions on the national territory.
As the characteristics of this grand national territorial foresight, it is a future study designed to suggest the futures of the national territory more than 20 years later without any intervention of strategies or policies and a defensive study seeking to develop the relevant strategies for the national territory with the proposed scenarios including the worst and best scenarios. Thus, these defensive characteristics m ake this study difficult to reflect directly in policy. Any futures research on the national territory has intrinsic lim itations; hence the possibly low acceptance of the foresight results of this study. The lim itations will be dealt with in the subsequent research works in the second and third years.
The following are the policy suggestions of this study: First, developing a long-term vision that m ay reflect rapid environm ental changes m ay be necessary for the national territory; Second, there m ay be a need to survey periodically indicators related to national territorial issues; Third, regular foresight on the national territory may be required as per the "Act on the National Territory." Forecasting the national territory every 5 years m ay be desirable.
The foresight sectors in the second year research in 2010 include natural environm ents, housing, industry, and transportation. The m ajor research topics of the second-year research are as follows: First, it will review and refine the integrated futures research m ethodology for national territory; Second, it will review and refine national territorial trends and issues; Third, it will foresee the national territory by sector;
Fourth, it will set the vision of the national territory; Fifth, it will suggest policy alternatives. The second-year research will also review the proposed national territorial trends and develop a set of scenarios on national territorial issues by sector. The national territorial trends and scenarios are expected to show flexibly and diversely the future of the national territory.
