메가 FTA의 경제효과 분석 방법론 개선방향을 위한 기초연구

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(1)경제·인문사회연구회 협동연구총서 16-18-01. 메가 FTA의 경제효과 분석 방법론 개선방향을 위한 기초연구 한석호․김영귀․김수동․김봉태․정인교.

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(3) 경제·인문사회연구회 미래사회 협동연구총서. “메가 FTA의 경제효과 분석 방법론 개선방향을 위한 기초연구” 1. 협동연구총서 시리즈 협동연구총서 일련번호 16-18-01. 연구보고서명 메가 FTA의 경제효과 분석 방법론 개선방향을 위한 기초연구. 연구기관. 한국농촌경제연구원. 2. 참여연구진 연구기관. 연구책임자. 주관 연구 한국농촌경제연구원. 한석호 연구위원 (총괄 책임자). 서홍석 부연구위원 이수환 연구원 염정완 연구원. 김영귀 연구위원. 오수현 부연구위원 황운중 부연구위원. 김수동 연구위원. 김바우 전문연구원 김정현 연구원 박가영 연구원. 김봉태 전문연구원. 이윤숙 전문연구원 박혜진 연구원. 정인교 교수. 조정란 교수. 기관 대외경제정책연구원. 협력. 산업연구원. 참여연구진. 연구 기관 한국해양수산개발원. 사단법인 FTA 활용 연구포럼.

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(5) 제 출 문 경제·인문사회연구회 이사장 귀하 본 보고서를 “메가 FTA의 경제효과 분석 방법론 개선방향을 위한 기초연구” 최종보고서로 제출합니다.. 2016년 6월. 한국농촌경제연구원.

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(7) i. 목 차 표 목 차 ········································································································ ⅳ 그림목차 ········································································································ ⅷ. 제1부 서론 제1장 서론 1. 연구 필요성과 목적 ····················································································· 3 2. 연구 내용과 방법 ························································································· 8 3. 선행연구 검토와 연구의 차별성 ······························································· 10 4. 기대효과 ······································································································ 12. 제2부 메가 FTA 경제적 이슈 제1장 서론 1. 연구 배경 및 목적 ····················································································· 15.

(8) ii 제2장 비관세 장벽 1. 비관세장벽의 유형 ····················································································· 17 2. 비관세장벽 추정에 관한 방법론 ······························································· 20 3. 비관세장벽 감축효과에 대한 선행연구 ··················································· 45 4. Maga FTA의 경제적 효과에 대한 선행연구 분석 ································· 50 5. Maga FTA의 비관세장벽 효과 분석 방법론 제안 ································· 60 제3장 누적 원산지 1. 원산지 규정 일반 ····················································································· 71 2. 원산지 관련 선행연구 ················································································ 78 3. Maga FTA의 누적원산지 효과 분석 방법론 제안 ······························· 105 제4장 SPS 규정의 경제적 효과 분석 방법론 고찰 1. 동식물위생검역 규정의 경제적 효과 분석 방법론 ······························· 109 2. SPS규정의 내용. ···················································································· 111. 3. TPP/SPS 협정의 내용과 검역 현황 ························································ 116 4. SPS규정의 영향평가 선행연구 ································································ 125 5. 실증연구 분석 방법 ·················································································· 136 6. SPS 수입조치 해제의 실증사례분석 ······················································ 157. 제3부 산업별 모형의 장단점 분석을 통한 개선방향 도출 제1장 제조업 1. 서론 ············································································································ 209 2. 선행연구 조사 ··························································································· 211 3. 제조업 경제효과 분석방법 ······································································ 220 4. 경제효과 분석 개선방안 ·········································································· 240.

(9) iii 제2장 농업 1. 농업부문 모형 ··························································································· 245 제3장 수산업 1. 서론 ············································································································ 295 2. 수산업부문 FTA 영향평가 모형 및 적용 사례 ···································· 298 3. 수산업부문 FTA 영향평가 모형 개선 방향 ·········································· 332. 제4부 일반균형과 부분균형 연계 제1장 일반균형 추정치와 부분균형 추정치 조화 1. 서론 ············································································································ 361 2. FTA 선행연구 및 주요 연구방법론 ······················································· 364 3. FTA 파급영향 분석모형. ······································································ 370. 4. 부분균형과 일반균형 연계 방법 ····························································· 392 5. 결론 및 시사점 ························································································· 406 참고 문헌 ··········································································································· 408.

(10) iv. 표 목차 제2부 메가 FTA 경제적 이슈 제2장 표 2-1. 비관세장벽의 유형 ·········································································· 19 표 2-2. 보호조치의 분류 ·············································································· 22 표 2-3. 동아시아 지역의 서비스 개방수준 ················································ 24 표 2-4. 비관세장벽 추정 방법론의 주된 장·단점 비교 ···························· 43 표 2-5. TPP 역내국의 비관세장벽을 위한 OTRI ···································· 52 표 2-6. TPP 효과분석을 위한 시나리오 ····················································· 53 표 2-7. 산업별 대체탄력성 ·········································································· 62 표 2-8. 정책 가중치와 메가 FTA의 구성요소별 점수 ····························· 69 제3장 표 3-1. 원산지규정의 분류 ·········································································· 72 표 3-2. 원산지 결정에 대한 보충적 기준 ·················································· 75 표 3-3. 중력모형 실증분석 결과 ································································· 84 표 3-4. 원산지 누적조항이 무역에 미치는 영향 ······································· 96 표 3-5. FTA별 한국의 對중, 對일 역내부가가치 비중 ·························· 101 표 3-6. 부가가치구조에 따른 FTA 효과 모의실험(경제성장) ··············· 103.

(11) v 제4장 표 4-1. MAST의 비관세장벽(NTM) 분류 ················································ 113 표 4-2. SPS 분류 ························································································ 113 표 4-3. TPP 국가별 수입허용 품목 ·························································· 123 표 4-4. 비관세장벽을 정량화하기 위한 세 가지 시나리오 ···················· 147 표 4-5. 한국 쇠고기 시장 ·········································································· 158 표 4-6. 국가별 쇠고기 수입동향 ······························································· 158 표 4-7. 단위근 검정 결과 ·········································································· 160 표 4-8. Engel-Granger 방법을 이용한 공적분 분석 결과 ······················ 160 표 4-9. 세 가지 시나리오에 대한 추정치 비교 ······································· 161 표 4-10. 실제 가격과 시뮬레이션 가격의 공적분 분석 결과 비교 ······ 163 표 4-11. TPP 국가별 IRA 진행단계 ························································· 167 표 4-12. 세계 사과 생산량 ········································································ 171 표 4-13. 세계 사과 수출량 ········································································ 172 표 4-14. 우리나라 사과 동향 ····································································· 174 표 4-15. 동질성･이질성 가정에 따른 수급모형 구조와 수입수요함수 형태 비교 ······················································································ 184 표 4-16. 사과 SPS 분석 기초자료 ···························································· 188 표 4-17. 사과 SPS 관세상당치와 금지조치 해제 시 예상수입량 추정결과 ···· 191 표 4-18. 사과 수입수요함수(log-log) 추정 결과 ····································· 193 표 4-19. 사과 SPS 해제 시 사과품목 영향분석 결과 ···························· 195 표 4-20. 농업 분야 전망 베이스라인 ······················································· 200 표 4-21. 사과 SPS 해제 시 생산감소액(국산선호계수 0.50 가정) ······· 201 표 4-22. 사과 SPS 해제 시 생산감소액(국산선호계수 0.54 가정) ······· 202 표 4-23. 사과 SPS 해제 시 생산감소액(국산선호계수 0.59 가정) ······· 203 표 4-24. 사과 SPS 해제 시 생산감소액(국산선호계수 0.64 가정) ······· 204.

(12) vi 제3부 산업별 모형의 장단점 분석을 통한 개선방향 도출 제1장 제조업 경제효과 분석방법 표 1-1. 일본의 발효 완료 EPA ································································· 216 표 1-2. 일본의 경제연계 진행 추이 ························································· 217 표 1-3. 일본이 추진 중인 메가FTA ························································· 218 표 1-4. 일본의 메가FTA의 경제적효과에 관한 연구 ····························· 219 표 1-5. 품목 분류 기준과 의미 ································································· 235 표 1-6. 민감 수준별 품목분류 기준 설정을 위한 정량적 지표 내역 ··· 238 표 1-7. 시나리오별 양허 수준(예시) ························································· 240. 제2장 표 2-1. KREI-KASMO 품목 및 지표 ······················································· 246 표 2-2. 수입산 제품에 따른 모형구조비교 ·············································· 273 표 2-3. KREI-KASMO Output ·································································· 276 표 2-4. KREI-KASMO 2013 대상 품목 ··················································· 277 표 2-5. KREI-KASMO 2015 대상 품목(농식품부 생산액 기준) ·········· 280 표 2-6. KREI-KASMO 2015 모형 실품목 ··············································· 280 표 2-7. KREI-KASMO 2015 그룹별 수출입함수 국가 ·························· 281. 제3장 표 3-1. 부분균형모형 구조(완전대체관계) ··············································· 302 표 3-2. 선형탄력성 모형 유도 결과(완전대체관계) ································ 303 표 3-3. 부분균형모형 구조(불완전대체관계) ············································ 305 표 3-4. 선형탄력성 모형 유도 결과(불완전대체관계) ···························· 306.

(13) vii 표 3-5. 사회회계행렬(SAM)의 구조 ························································· 310 표 3-6. 국제유가 10% 상승의 영향 ·························································· 319 표 3-7. 국제유가 10% 하락의 영향 ·························································· 319 표 3-8. 한-미 FTA의 수산물 생산 영향(발효 15년차) ··························· 321 표 3-9. 한-미 FTA의 수산물 수출 영향(발효 15년차) ··························· 321 표 3-10. 한-미 FTA의 수산물 수입 영향(발효 15년차) ························· 321 표 3-11. 분석 모형의 특징 및 개선 방향 ················································ 333. 제4부 일반균형과 부분균형 연계 제1장 표 1-1. 정석적 분석의 예시 ······································································· 366 표 1-2. 정량분석 선행연구의 예시 ··························································· 368 표 1-3. 한･중 FTA의 산업별 영향에 대한 산업부와 중기청 분석결과 비교 ····· 371 표 1-4. 제조업 업종별 수입가격탄력성 추정결과 ··································· 389 표 1-5. Closure 변경을 위한 변수 swap ·················································· 396 표 1-6. 다국가 모형 외생변수 ··································································· 398 표 1-7. 부분균형 분석 추정치 비교 ························································· 400 표 1-8. 산업별 평균 수입수요탄력성 및 관세율 ····································· 401 표 1-9. 한･중 양국간 관세자유화의 GDP 파급영향 ····························· 403 표 1-10. 한･중 양국간 관세자유화의 한국의 대중국 수출 영향(부분균형) ····· 403 표 1-11. 한･중 양국간 관세자유화의 한국의 대중국 수입 영향(부분균형) ····· 404 표 1-12. 한･중 양국간 관세자유화의 한국 수출 영향(일반균형) ········· 405 표 1-13. 한･중 양국간 관세자유화의 한국 수입 영향(일반균형) ········· 405.

(14) viii. 그림 목차 제2부 메가 FTA 경제적 이슈 그림 2-1. 비관세 시나리오 분석 절차도 ···················································· 65 제3장 그림 3-1. 누적원산지가 교역에 미치는 효과 ············································ 82 그림 3-2. TPP 누적조항에 영향을 받는 부품소재 수출 추정: 가정 1～3 ····· 89 제4장 그림 4-1. 관세상당치에 의한 SPS 무역 효과 ······································· 131 그림 4-2. 국제시장에서 수요공급 이동에 의한 SPS 효과 ··················· 133 그림 4-3. 비관세장벽을 정량화하기 위한 세 가지 경우의 그래프 분석 ···· 146 그림 4-4. 한국과 미국 쇠고기 가격 ························································· 159 그림 4-5. 관세와 위생검역조치 존재 여부에 따른 미국산 쇠고기 수입가격 ··· 164 그림 4-6. 세계 생산량 및 수출량 ····························································· 172 그림 4-7. 국내시장에서 사과 SPS 수입금지 해제 시 수입량 ············· 182 그림 4-8. 국산소매가격 및 수입사과의 국내시장가격 추이 ·················· 189 그림 4-9. 사과 SPS 해제 시 사과 농판가격 변화 ·································· 197 그림 4-10. 사과 SPS 해제 시 사과 재배면적 변화 ································ 197.

(15) ix 제3부 산업별 모형의 장단점 분석을 통한 개선방향 도출 제1장 그림 1-1. FTA가 제조업 수출입에 미치는 영향 경로 ··························· 221 그림 1-2. 연쇄적 생산 파급효과 예시 ······················································ 232 제2장 그림 2-1. KREI-KASMO 모형의 구조 ····················································· 253 그림 2-2. KREI-KASMO 한육우 모형 흐름도 ········································ 253 그림 2-3. KREI-KASMO 양돈 모형 흐름도 ············································ 254 그림 2-4. KREI-KASMO 육계 모형 흐름도 ············································ 254 그림 2-5. KREI-KASMO 산란계 모형 흐름도 ········································ 255 그림 2-6. KREI-KASMO 젖소 모형 흐름도 ············································ 255 그림 2-7. KREI-KASMO 낙농 모형 흐름도 ············································ 256 그림 2-8. KREI-KASMO 과수 모형 흐름도 ············································ 256 그림 2-9. KREI-KASMO 고추 수입구조 ················································· 257 그림 2-10. KREI-KASMO 버섯 수입구조 ··············································· 258 그림 2-11. KAP 농가인구 전망(Cohort) ··················································· 259 그림 2-12. GEM-LOCS 국제곡물 전망 ···················································· 260 그림 2-13. KREI-KASMO 모형의 균형가격도출 ···································· 263 그림 2-14. 국내 수입수요에 따른 TRQ 영향 ·········································· 283 그림 2-15. 관세인하 및 TRQ 증량에 따른 FTA 영향평가 분석방법 ·· 285 그림 2-16. 수입량 증가에 따른 피해액 산출 ·········································· 285 그림 2-17. FAPRI 국제모형 흐름도 ························································· 290 그림 2-18. AGLINK-COSIMO 국가범위 ·················································· 291.

(16) x 제3장 그림 3-1. FTA로 인한 관세철폐 효과(완전대체관계) ···························· 302 그림 3-2. FTA로 인한 관세철폐의 효과(불완전대체관계) ····················· 305 그림 3-3. KMI-FSM 2013의 전체 구조 ··················································· 325 그림 3-4. 수산물 수급모형의 일반적 체계 ·············································· 327 그림 3-5. 어가소득 결정모형의 체계 ························································ 328 그림 3-6. 어가인구 결정모형의 체계 ························································ 329 그림 3-7. 수산업 총량지표 모형의 구성 ·················································· 331 그림 3-8. 소비함수의 내재된(nested) 시스템 구조 ································· 337 그림 3-9. 생산함수의 내재된(nested) 시스템 구조 ································· 343 그림 3-10. 정부지출과 생산량과의 관계 ················································ 358 제4부 일반균형과 부분균형 연계 제1장 그림 1-1. 무역전환효과와 무역창출효과 예시 ········································· 374 그림 1-2. 무역전환효과와 무역창출효과 ················································ 375 그림 1-3. KREI-KASMO 모형의 구조. ················································· 391.

(17) 국문요약 최근 환태평양경제동반자협정(TPP)이 타결됨에 따라 여타 메가 FTA에 대한 논 의도 급물살을 탈 것으로 예상된다. 그동안 FTA 영향 분석 연구에는 복수의 연구기관 이 참여하여 각 기관 고유의 분석방법과 모형을 이용하여 효과분석을 진행하였다. 이 러한 연구는 각 기관의 연구 독립성을 보장하는 장점에도 불구하고, 전체 연구의 정합 성 측면에서 개선할 부분이 있다는 주장이 있으며, 특히 기관별 모형 및 효과분석의 상호연계 및 환류효과의 문제점이 제기되어 왔다. 또한 메가 FTA에는 향후 국제통상 질서의 초석이 될 수 있는 규범관련 이슈를 논의한다는 점에서 양자 FTA와는 차별화 된 접근법이 필요하다. 이에 본 연구는 메가 FTA 협상 타결 시 우리나라의 가입여부 검토를 위해, 메가 FTA 참여 시 산업별 파급영향 분석 방법론을 개선하기 위한 기초 연구 수행을 주요 목적으로 한다. 2부에서는 메가 FTA의 특징을 고려한 연구방법론 개발을 위하여 비관세장벽, 누적 원산지 규정, 동식물검역과 관련된 선행연구를 정리하였으며, 시도 가능한 경제적·정 량적 효과추정 분석방법론을 제안하였다. 비관세장벽 감축효과 분석은 TPP를 대상으 로 연구한 Petri et al(2016)를 토대로 시도 가능한 방법론을 제안하였다. 비관세장벽을 CGE 모형에서 다루기 위해 1) 비관세장벽의 관세상당치 측정, 2) 비관세장벽의 감축 폭 결정, 3) 비관세장벽의 관세상당치 감축과 가격변화율의 연계의 과정을 제안하였 다. 누적원산지 효과분석은 Augier et al(2005)와 김상겸 외(2011)의 방법을 CGE에 결 합하는 방식을 제안하였다. 이는 원산지 기준이 양자누적에서 완전누적으로 바뀔 경 우 기대되는 교역증대 효과를 계량모형을 통해 추정한 후, 이러한 교역증대가 발생하.

(18) 도록 모형내 비용관련 변수에 충격을 주는 방식이다. 농업부문의 주요 무역규범인 동식물검역규정의 영향분석은 과거 수입량이 있는 품 목과 수입량이 없는 품목으로 나누어 분석가능한 방법론을 제안하였으며, 각 경우에 해당되는 대표품목을 선정하여 사례연구를 수행하였다. Waytt Thompson(2016)의 공 적분 분석과 부분균형모형을 이용하여 관세상당치를 정량화하는 방법론을 이용하였 다. 과거 수입실적이 있는 미국산 쇠고기 위생검역조치의 관세상당치는 77%로 분석 되어 전통적인 가격 격차 방법론을 이용한 관세상당치인 55%보다 높게 나타났다. 수 입실적이 전무한 품목으로 수입금지 조치 해제 가능성이 상대적으로 높은 사과를 대 상으로 국산선호도를 반영한 가격 격차 접근법을 응용하여 수입금지 조치 해제 시 경 제적·정량적 영향을 분석하였다. 분석결과, 사과의 예상수입량은 우리나라 소비자의 국산선호 정도에 따라 상이하게 나타났으며, 국산사과를 선호할수록 수입금지 조치해 제에 따른 사과부문 및 전체 농업 분야의 생산 감소효과는 미미할 것으로 분석되었다. 3부에서는 각 기관별 분석모형의 장점과 한계점을 살펴보고 향후 개선방향을 모색 함으로써 모형 설명력을 제고하기 위한 방안을 제시하였다. 산업연구원의 제조업부문 분석모형은 FTA 체결에 따른 영향분석을 관세인하 효과, 생산유발 효과, 무역전환 효 과로 분류하여 추정하는 방법을 제시하였다. 관세인하 효과는 기본적으로 수입가격 변화에 따른 수입량의 변화 정도를 나타내는 수입의 가격탄력성을 통해 추정하며, 국 내생산 유발효과는 한국은행 산업연관표의 생산유발계수를 활용하여 추정하였다. 무 역전환 효과는 무역창출형 수입증대 부분으로부터 무역전환형 수입증대 부분을 분리 하여 추산하는데, 국내시장에서 주요 국가간 경쟁관계는 수출경합도를 이용하여 산출 하였다. 제조업부문 개선방안으로 1) 시나리오 설정 절차 정례화, 2) 시나리오별 분석 결과의 범주화, 3) KIEP의 거시경제효과 분석모형과의 정합성 확보 노력, 4) 연구예산 의 현실화를 제시하였다. 한국농촌경제연구원의 KREI-KASMO는 농업부문에 국한된 동태 일반균형모형으 로 품목 상호 간에 생산, 소비 대체로 연결되어 있는 계량학적 연립방정식체계로 구성 되어 있다. FTA 영향평가 분석은 관세 하락과 TRQ 증량에 따른 수입량 증가가 국내 농업부문에 미치는 영향을 계측하는 것으로, 관세 하락 영향은 수입수요함수로부터 도출되고 TRQ 증량 영향은 David W. Skully(2001) 방법론을 토대로 계측된다. 2015.