This paper analyzes the views of the United States (US), China, Japan, and Russia on the issues of the division of the Korean Peninsula and a South Korea-led unification based on a survey conducted by experts in the respective countries. Each country's five experts on the Korean Peninsula (a total of 20 experts) presented their in-depth views on a list of eight questions, including (1) the costs and benefits of division and unification, (2) the efforts of the international community regarding unification, and ( 3) the value of a united Korea. The following four chapters on the analysis of the views of the United States, China, Japan and Russia on the division of the peninsula as well as its unification are each composed of three parts.
Considering that the resolution of North Korea's nuclear issue as well as the denuclearization of the peninsula are urgent for the peace and prosperity of Northeast Asia, this paper analyzes the role of each state in solving these problems. In addition, it assesses the four states' perception of the regional advisory bodies in Northeast Asia regarding the division and unification of the peninsula, including the six-party negotiations. This article is the result of the first year's project, which is part of a three-year project to develop 'unification diplomacy contents.' It is expected that, based on the first year's research results, substantive content will be developed for the second year.
Korean Peninsula at a Crossroad and the Importance of Unification Diplomacy
If South Korea's centripetal force is much weaker than the centripetal force of the US and China, the Korean Peninsula may become politically wedged between the US and China.1) Therefore, the fate of the Korean Peninsula in this era of global change may face transformative circumstances. As George Friedman emphasized in his book Next Decade, depending on South Korea's strategic preparation for the next decade, South Korea's centripetal forces could lead the centrifugal forces and develop into a great power Korea (GK). The aspiration of South Korea and the Korean people to become a Great Power Korea (GK) is a pioneering task in times of global transformations, and the unification of the Korean Peninsula is necessary to become a Great Power Korea (GK) ) to become.2).
Therefore, unification diplomacy and efforts to increase South Korea's centripetal forces are strategically important to exploit such an opportunity. For these reasons, the strategic importance of unification diplomacy aimed at cultivating the support and cooperation of the United States, China, Japan, and Russia for a South Korea-led unification is still increasing. For Seoul to strengthen its unification diplomacy vis-à-vis Washington, Beijing, Tokyo and Moscow, the most essential task is to understand the perceptions and positions of the four states on the issue of a South Korea-led unification.
The U.S. Position on a Divided Peninsula and Unification
Costs and benefits of Korean division/unification
It can also make a great contribution to the global security strategy of non-proliferation by solving the North Korean problem of weapons of mass destruction, such as nuclear weapons and long-range missiles. However, the costs are not seen as a burden on the US, but as a necessary step towards new opportunities. Moreover, China's cooperation is crucial during the process, which is why South Korea shares this view with the US.
Cooperation for Korean unification
Second, assuming that the process is viable, there is still the question of whether a gradual and peaceful process is possible. Preventing North Korea's weapons development technology, including missiles, is also important. A unified Korea needs to adopt a non-nuclear stance amid China's and Japan's competition for influence over Korea, and in this regard, maintaining the ROK-U.S.
This is because first, the North Korean nuclear issue is a global task dealing with non-proliferation and the establishment of regional security; and secondly, the US only. On the other hand, Northeast Asia lacks multilateral organizations to support Korean unification, and for the Six-Party Talks to serve such a role, the North Korean nuclear issue must be resolved in advance. Under the situation in which the six-party talks are at a standstill, a new form of multilateral talks seems unlikely unless it is a major appeal to each country.
Views on a unified Korea’s values and its desirable future
China’s Position on a Divided Peninsula and Unification
China sympathizes with North Korea's argument that its nuclear weapons development is to counter the security threats of the US and South Korea. North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons is a security threat to China and possibly causes South Korea, Japan and Taiwan to be nuclear-armed. In addition, as seen by the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan, North Korea's nuclear accidents can harm neighboring China.
In China, some say that pursuing North Korea's denuclearization is not practically feasible, even though North Korea already has a significant level of nuclear technology. Instead, North Korea's nuclear assets should be recognized and "managed" through bilateral, trilateral and multilateral talks. However, China has been lukewarm towards the international community's imposition of economic sanctions on North Korea until North Korea's second nuclear test.
This is because China had assessed that North Korea's nuclear capability was not sufficient for it. However, when North Korea conducted its third nuclear test, despite China's warning, China realized that North Korea's nuclear capability had reached a significant level. Furthermore, the normalization of ROK-China relations has reduced North Korea's value as a security buffer.
China strives for the denuclearization of North Korea in order to improve its global image as a responsible regional power and permanent member of the UNSC. The armistice agreement system is a multilateral system, but China does not actively support North Korea's attempt to use it. Moreover, North Korea's third nuclear test contributed to this trend and reduced the possibility of the US.
China argues that the international community should make the most of the Six-Party Talks to denuclearize North Korea. China acknowledges the fact that the six-party talks have failed to prevent North Korea's nuclear development. Since North Korea's third nuclear test, the goal of the six-party talks has been clearly set at denuclearization.
Japan’s Position on a Divided Peninsula and Unification
Another concern is that Japan has tightened its regulations in response to security threats from North Korea, a trend that limits civil freedom. The armed forces in Japan are responsible for the national security of Korea.' Positive socio-economic and cultural impacts include, first and foremost, the contribution of the united Korea to Japan's economic revitalization. Resolving North Korea's nuclear issue and denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula are seen as prerequisites for peace and prosperity on the Korean Peninsula and in East Asia.
This will partly reduce ongoing threats to each country's government and prevent North Korea's military provocations. During the Six-Party Talks process, if it resumes with North Korea's true intention of denuclearization, Japan hopes to take an active role, for example, by normalizing diplomatic relations with North Korea, thereby helping North Korea establish itself as a international member. community. Experts say such a change would lead to the normalization of US-DPRK relations and would further provide a clue to the resolution of North Korea's nuclear problems.
Japan may also provide humanitarian assistance to North Korea, such as providing medical supplies and food, depending on their position on the abduction issue. The next step suggests the possibility of cooperation to build the Rason Port and contribute to the development of North Korea's higher education system. An effective way for Japan to contribute to the solution of the North Korean problem is to expand its influence over North Korea through these processes.
Japan has made it clear that it intends to start negotiations to implement the "Japan-DPRK Pyongyang Declaration" in close cooperation with South Korea once inter-Korean relations stabilize and North Korea expresses its willingness to cooperate. Japan praises South Korea's efforts to resolve North Korea's nuclear issue, but at the same time indicates a few points of concern. Finally, given the special relationship between Korea and Japan, Japan claims that it is against Korea's national interest if they refuse to discuss the future with Japan, judging the past with current values, thus perpetuating their different interpretations of history .
In other words, Japan is proposing that a unified Korea not be limited to the past, but to talk about the future, which is not only in the interest of Korea, but also in the interests of all other countries in Northeast Asia.
Russia’s Position on a Divided Peninsula and Unification
Korean unification will contribute to the stability of Northeast Asian diplomatic relations, as it greatly reduces the likelihood of confrontations and military skirmishes on the Korean Peninsula. The positive aspects in socio-economic/cultural areas are, as mentioned above, the increase in opportunities for the Far East/Siberia development program, which has been a priority for Russia's modernization, and the creation of a new export market for natural resources in the region. Russia's main concern is any attempt by any of the four Northeast Asian superpowers to gain strategic superiority on the Korean Peninsula.
In this regard, a unified Korea should not harm its neutrality in the region, but solve the problem by cooperating with the four countries and the international community. From that point of view, integration of the Korean peninsula could be a rational alternative to the confederal model. In addition, the countries involved have a responsibility to build a collective security system to stabilize the Korean Peninsula and the East Asian regional situations.
Russia supports the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula as a foreign policy, adheres to UN Security Council resolutions and supports the gradual progress in dialogues within the framework of the Six-Party Talks. South Korea must exert its political and economic influence on North Korea with the help of China and Russia. Another measure for the stabilization of the Korean Peninsula is to hold bilateral talks and discussions more often.
Moreover, the failures of the six-party talks can be re-examined through 'five-party talks' and the states can learn a lesson in reaching an agreement. As North Korea begins to implement the actual process, South Korea should help establish systems and structures such as statistical services and communications systems in cooperation with the major powers in Northeast Asia, which will lead to the normalization of North Korea's society. To determine the right future vision for a unified Korea, Koreans must convince neighboring powers that they are willing to achieve the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and build a politically/economically advanced society.
As a neutral country, a unified Korea should not worsen the political situation in Northeast Asia or increase uncertainty among the central players in the region.
