1 Report for

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Daily Report for Tuesday, May 23, 2017

1 Report for

Tuesday, May 23, 2017 Khordad 2, 1396

* Highlights. Page 2

* News Briefs. Page 3

* Plans for next four years. Page 3

* The fired! Page 4

* Shamkhani departs for Moscow. Page 4

* Twelfth government and its cohesive critics. Page 4

* Seven perils of Trump’s attempt to isolate Iran. Page 5

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2 Highlights

 President Donald Trump’s alignment of US foreign policy with that of Saudi Arabia will only serve to exacerbate tension and confrontation in the Middle East. (See Page 5)

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3 Briefs

* Farsi-language newspaper Etemad reports that Secretary of Expediency Council Mohsen Rezaei says that Iranian officials should take the new Saudi-led coalition against Iran seriously.

* Farsi-language newspaper Etemad reports that 12 combat and support helicopters have been added to Iranian military’s fleet in a ceremony held in Isfahan city.

* Farsi-language state-owned newspaper Iran writes that Admiral Fariborz Qadirpanah is leading the seven-member Iranian delegation from

‘Supreme National Defense University’ to Islamabad. Second Brigadier General Hassan Salimi is also one of the leading members of the delegation.

* Farsi-language conservative news website Khabaronline writes that reacting to Judiciary saying that it will question Rouhani for his comments made during presidential debates, prominent conservative MP Mohammad Reza Bahonar says that it is not in Iran’s national interests to take a high-ranking official to court simply for making comments.

* Farsi-language newspaper Shargh writes that Lotfollah Forozandeh, a member of central council of Popular Front of Islamic Revolution Forces, says that 600 members of the front will hold a meeting on Thursday to discuss the recent presidential election.

* Farsi-language website Aftab News writes that former diplomat Seyyed Hussein Musavian says that President Trump is making new accusations against Iran in order to obtain oil money from the Arab Sheikhs.

Plans for next four years

Farsi-language news media refer to President Rouhani’s plans for the next four years.

Concerning Iran’s future foreign policies, Rouhani has said that his government would pursue constructive interaction with foreign countries to achieve sustainable exports of Iranian products, reducing tension and threats against Iran, expanding relations with Islamic countries and regional countries, not allow big powers to reach consensus against Iran, taking initiative away from America and strengthening relations with Europe.

Rouhani will pursue economic policies, most of which it was already pursuing in the first term. These include reducing unemployment by supporting small and medium companies particularly those in the innovative and IT sectors, attracting domestic and foreign investments, supporting tourism, continuation of a comprehensive social security program, implementing a three-stage program for social welfare at an acceptable standard, take back opportunities Iran lost to Turkey, UAE and Qatar.

Rouhani will continue to implement JCPOA to get positive economic benefits.

Rouhani’s government has also promised to eliminate gender discrimination.

Rouhani will pursue creating jobs for the Iranian youth aged 23 to 32, within the framework of different schemes such as job training programs.

It will upgrade the dilapidated houses in different Iranian cities, provide facilities to first time homeowners and export housing materials.

He also indirectly promised to get Musavi and Karroubi released.

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4 The fired!

Farsi-language reformist newspaper Ghanoon writes about the recent presidential election and councils election.

It particularly refers to Tehran City Council election results. It writes that reformists and moderate conservatives completely took over Tehran City Council, ousting Mehdi Chamran (previous chairman of Tehran City Council) and his allies.

It writes that Chamran and his group reigned over Tehran City Council for 12 years and had played an effective role in helping Ahmadinejad becoming president and covered up the weaknesses and mistakes of Tehran Mayor Ghalibaf.

Another noteworthy and important news has been that late Rafsanjani’s son Mohsen Hashemi Rafsanjani was elected to Tehran City Council with the most votes in Tehran city. He got 1,746,568 votes.

Shamkhani departs for Moscow

Farsi-language newspaper Ghanoon writes that Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani has left Tehran for Moscow Tuesday morning to attend Moscow Conference on International Security 2017.

It writes that more than 70 countries are expected to attend the conference.

Shamkhani is scheduled to make a speech, and meet with Russian security and defense officials from Russia and ‘some’

of the other participating countries.

Twelfth government and its cohesive critics

Farsi-language conservative and pro- Ghalibaf newspaper Vatan-e Emrooz writes that the twelfth government [Rouhani’s government] starts its work and it will face two issues:

1. It faces large and cohesive critics who enjoy considerable social support.

2. The government has two ways to deal with its critics: either engage its critics with a reasonable and respectful dialog, paving the way towards national understanding and interests, or it could continue its behavior from the first term when it used profanity and used to tell them to go to hell.

There have been reports that some of Rouhani’s advisers have suggested to him to adopt the first approach. However, it appears that Rouhani is not listening to such advisors. In his first post-election remarks, he thinks that he can call his

‘mild victory’ in the presidential election as a victory over violent people!

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5 Seven perils of Trump’s attempt

to isolate Iran

 US President Donald Trump’s landmark speech in Saudi Arabia May 21 signals a reversal of policy from the Barack Obama administration and will ratchet up tensions with Iran.

 Furthermore, Iran’s military spending is less than Saudi Arabia’s, Israel’s and other Persian Gulf Arab countries’, while its population is greater than all of them combined.

 Rather than flagrant US withdrawal from the deal, which would isolate the United States on the global stage, the Saudi and Israeli governments support new far- reaching sanctions on Iran under non-nuclear justifications.

 Second, while Obama believed that the United States no longer had a strategic interest in the Middle East’s oil bounty, Trump claims that America has incurred too high a cost for preserving its regional allies and should be paid more in return,

describing US Arab allies as having “nothing but money.” Fifth, instead of recognizing, as Obama did, that Saudi Arabia and Iran should “share” the region and temper the power balance, Trump’s speech in Riyadh sets them up for confrontation.

 Today, Saudi Arabia and Israel are forming an open alliance against Iran, which Trump supports.

 Finally, Trump’s Middle East policy will exacerbate rather than solve the root causes of the problems that afflict Arab states, such as poverty, corruption, autocratic

governance and the spread of Wahhabism.

 This interventionist trend on the part of wealthy Arab states will likely continue under Trump, intensifying inequality in already unsustainable Arab economies.

 He must address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in a way that respects Palestinian rights and spurs cooperation between the main regional powers of Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt.

Al-Monitor news website: US President Donald Trump’s landmark speech in Saudi Arabia May 21 signals a reversal of policy from the Barack Obama administration and will ratchet up tensions with Iran. A day after a record-breaking 42 million Iranians signaled their desire to engage the world by re-electing President Hassan Rouhani,

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Trump appeared in an autocratic monarchy to call on “nations of conscience” to

“isolate” Iran.

The Trump administration’s main accusation is that Tehran is destabilizing the region.

However, this simply does not square with the reality on the ground. Iran is backing the same governments in Iraq and Afghanistan that the United States supports.

Meanwhile, Kabul and Baghdad blame Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, respectively, for supporting terrorism in their countries. Former US Vice President Joe Biden acknowledged the role of American allies in fomenting instability, stating in 2014,

“They poured hundreds of millions of dollars and tens of thousands of tons of weapons into anyone who would fight against [Syrian President Bashar al-] Assad, except that the people who were being supplied were [Jabhat] al-Nusra, and al-Qaeda, and the extremist elements of jihadis coming from other parts of the world.”

Furthermore, Iran’s military spending is less than Saudi Arabia’s, Israel’s and other Persian Gulf Arab countries’, while its population is greater than all of them combined. To claim Iran has militaristic aims over the region is thus baseless. The historic July 2015 nuclear deal closed all pathways to a nuclear weapon for Iran, whereas Israel remains the only obstacle to a nuclear weapons-free zone in the Middle East.

Given Trump’s apparent strategy, there are at least seven perils the United States could and should avoid.

First, the nuclear deal, which froze Iran’s nuclear program, is in great jeopardy. Israel and Saudi Arabia made every effort to prevent the negotiations between Iran and six world powers from succeeding. They have now embarked, as multiple Western sources have confirmed to me, on a subtler strategy of sabotaging the accord. Rather than flagrant US withdrawal from the deal, which would isolate the United States on the global stage, the Saudi and Israeli governments support new far-reaching sanctions on Iran under non-nuclear justifications. This would all but erode the accord’s economic benefits for Iran.

Second, while Obama believed that the United States no longer had a strategic interest in the Middle East’s oil bounty, Trump claims that America has incurred too high a cost for preserving its regional allies and should be paid more in return, describing US Arab allies as having “nothing but money.” A Trump policy of petrodollars in exchange for a confrontational US approach on Iran is thus likely in store. By ignoring

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the underlying factors that destabilize the region, such a quid pro quo will ensure the continuation of turmoil and its spread beyond.

Third, Trump wants to expand the sale of US armaments to Saudi Arabia and in this vein signed a $110 billion arms deal while in the kingdom. But funneling arms into an already unstable region has long enabled destructive wars, such as the current war in Yemen. It also diminishes prospects for resolving the region’s crises through diplomacy.

Fourth, Trump’s embrace of Saudi Arabia is more likely to spread terrorism than curb it. On the campaign trail, he described Riyadh as the “world’s biggest funder of terrorism.” Now, he refers to US-Saudi ties as a “strategic relationship” and instead accuses Iran of being the “leading state sponsor of terrorism.” This reversal is likely to backfire. Ramping up pressure on Iran will inhibit its ability to combat terrorist groups in Iraq, Syria and other parts of the region. Groups such as the Islamic State (IS), al- Qaeda and Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra) share the Saudi Wahhabist state ideology. Supporting Saudi Arabia will boost the spread of such beliefs.

Fifth, instead of recognizing, as Obama did, that Saudi Arabia and Iran should “share”

the region and temper the power balance, Trump’s speech in Riyadh sets them up for confrontation. It will only fan the flames of sectarianism and increase tension between Sunnis and Shiites across the region and spread instability.

Sixth, the United States and Israel have long been the most resented nations in the Arab and Muslim worlds. This is why former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s bellicose anti-American and anti-Israeli rhetoric won him such popularity on the Arab and Muslim street. Today, Saudi Arabia and Israel are forming an open alliance against Iran, which Trump supports. For his part, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes that by aggrandizing the alleged threat that Iran poses to Israel, he can distract from the Palestinian issue. This Arab-Israeli- American alliance also comes at a time when large parts of the Arab world have collapsed and the hope for achieving a Palestinian state has been lost. This alliance will make Arab leaders complicit in Israeli expansionism in the eyes of their peoples, thus boosting recruitment to extremist groups — including IS.

Finally, Trump’s Middle East policy will exacerbate rather than solve the root causes of the problems that afflict Arab states, such as poverty, corruption, autocratic

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governance and the spread of Wahhabism. This is not to mention the ongoing consequences of the US and NATO military interventions in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya. Wealthy, stable Arab states have spent enormous amounts buying US weapons and launching military interventions in Yemen, Libya and Syria in part to counter perceived Iranian influence. Instead of using this wealth to alleviate the structural problems ailing their political and economic systems, it is being redirected to destabilize other Arab states. Saudi Arabia alone has seen its foreign reserves decrease from $800 billion to $500 billion in part due to weapons purchases and foreign adventurism. This interventionist trend on the part of wealthy Arab states will likely continue under Trump, intensifying inequality in already unsustainable Arab economies.

None of the above is in the interest of the West. If the region is to find stability and prosper, Trump must rethink his Middle East strategy. He must address the Israeli- Palestinian conflict in a way that respects Palestinian rights and spurs cooperation between the main regional powers of Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt.