1 Report for

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Daily Report for Thursday, June 15, 2017

1 Report for

Thursday, June 15, 2017 Khordad 25, 1396

* Highlights. Page 2

* News Briefs. Page 3

* The bitterness of a comparison. Page 3

* An opportunity for Iran. Page 4

* Rouhani’s second administration: A major facelift to come. Page 5

* Trump’s policies and growing extremism in the Middle East. Page 10

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2 Highlights

 Observers reading between the lines of Rouhani’s recent remarks believe the President has been listening to public voices, calling for a sea change in the cabinet. (See Page 5)

 It seems that preventing emergence of a regional hegemony through maintaining the existing balance of forces in the Middle East tops Trump’s policies in the Middle East. (See Page 10)

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3 Briefs

* Farsi-language newspaper Etemad writes that a Chinese naval group is to berth today. The Chinese Navy flotilla comprises two battle cruisers, a support vessel, and a helicopter, the Iranian Navy’s Public Relations Department said. It said the group, which has just been to the Pakistani port of Karachi for training purposes, will be docking at Bandar Abbas on Thursday.

* Farsi-language website Aftab News websites that President Rouhani said yesterday that “some” [princpalists]

think that university professors and researchers visiting abroad to facilitate academic and research cooperation is something to be worried about [instead of something which should be encouraged].

* Farsi-language website Aftab News writes that principalist cleric Ayatollah Mohammad-Taqi Mesbah- Yazdi says that opposition to the Supreme Leader is tantamount to opposing God and is on par with the sign of practicing idolatry or polytheism. He is now the director of the Imam Khomeini Education and Research Institute in Qum. He has been a leading critic of the reformists.

* Farsi-language newspaper Etemad writes that Tehran and Amol police carried out a joint operation in which 300 kilos of heroin was discovered inside a truck.

* Farsi-language state-owned newspaper Iran reports that Foreign Ministry Spokesman Bahram Qassemi in a message on Wednesday expressed regret over the London fire which killed at least 12 people and wounded several others.

The bitterness of a comparison

Farsi-language reformist newspaper Aftab Yazd writes on its front page about London’s Grenfell Tower catching fire with a big photo. It writes that the London incident reminds Iranians, especially the Tehran residents, about the Plasco Building incident. The London incident brought back all the bitterness and sadness that Iranians, especially the Tehranis, felt about a tragedy that could have been avoided. It also reminded them of the failures and electoral use of the Plasco Building incident.

Aftab-e Yazd’s editor-in-chief Alireza Karimi writes that Iranian state television covered the London building incident live, just like CNN, BBC and other leading international television networks.

He writes that even as foreign news media were reporting that fire was under control and later extinguished, Iranian state television’s reporter asserted that the fire has not been extinguished and the London fire department has not performed well during the incident. Mr. Karimi writes that the Iranian state television has the necessary equipment to carry out its duties. But there are those who sit in think tank rooms and “do not let” the work be done.

On the other hand, the hardline conservative newspaper Javan also writes about the London’s Grenfell Tower incident. This incident, which was a nightmare for the victims, was reminiscent of the Plasco Building incident for many Iranians. Many Iranians on social networking websites compared Grenfell Tower incident with the Plasco incident.

One of the posted comments was: Our missile can reach Israel, but our ladders cannot reach top of a building.

Javan goes on to ask where are those people who demanded Tehran city officials should resign because of

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their bad performance over Plasco Building incident. It asks: Why aren’t these same individuals calling for resignation of London city officials?

Javan prints two photos side by side as a comparison. One was a photo of time when mass of people had gathered around the Plasco Building when it was on fire.

The other photo of Grenfell Tower incident and there are only two policemen watching the tower. Javan may be showing that London officials did not allocated necessary manpower to Grenfell Tower. [Of course, it could show that the London officials were able to evacuate people from around the Grenfell Tower more efficiently than the Tehran city officials, but that is not what Javan is going for.]

An opportunity for Iran

Farsi-language Tabnak News Agency writes that Qatar’s only way to survive the Saudi-led “blockade” is to forge closer ties with Iran. It writes that Qatar needs to partner with a powerful regional player such as Iran in order to counter its strategic isolation by its traditional allies.

Tabnak, affiliated with Mohsen Rezaei, further stressed that the “Arab rift is a suitable opportunity for Iran to attract one other Arab player into its own regional bloc, or at least ensure that this country does not enter anti-Iran alliances.”

During the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, Tabnak pointed out, Iran opened its

borders to Kuwaiti citizens and recognized the Kuwaiti government in exile in Saudi Arabia. “Many believe that the Iranian move to support Kuwait is the reason this country never seriously joins anti-Iran coalitions led by Saudi Arabia.”

Iran can replicate that success with Qatar now, it said, emphasizing that despite differences over the wars in Yemen and Syria, Tehran and Doha have had friendly relations for decades. It noted that Doha voted against the anti-Iran U.N. Security Council Resolution 1696 in 2006 even though China and Russia voted for it.

Tabnak cautioned that Tehran’s outreach to Doha may entail three risks for Tehran:

“First, Iran’s support can further aggravate the crisis and tension between these countries and make Saudi Arabia and its allies more determined to take more serious measures against Doha…

“Second, Iran’s support may open the door for America to enter the crisis. With Washington’s involvement, Russia may also interfere and we could witness the dispute transforming from a foreign policy crisis into a regional and international one.

“Third, Saudi Arabia and its allies may try to thrust Iran into another Middle Eastern crisis and increase the potential for a direct confrontation between the United States and Iran… With Iran’s support to Qatar, Saudi Arabia can sway public opinion in the Arab world against Qatar and pave the way for a military intervention to topple the Qatari regime.”

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5 Rouhani’s second administration:

A major facelift to come

 Observers believe that the president’s explicit remarks indicate a sea change in Rouhani’s second administration.

 Following Rouhani’s landslide win in the presidential race, a debate on substantial weaknesses in Rouhani’s first administration and the necessity to make extensive changes in the next became talk of the town.

 Appreciating efforts every member of the administration had made, Rouhani

distinguished between those who stood by the administration in full force during the election, rolling up sleeves and those who were slipshod and fair weather friends, keeping company until midway.

 “Some individuals stepped up when the administration was attacked, defending it wholeheartedly because to defend the administration was [to them] to defend the nation.

 Those who advocate the administration advocate the popular votes, the majority, and the nation,” Rouhani said in a reference to response administration officials showed in the face of attacks during presidential campaigns.

 “Except for Petroleum Minister Zangeneh, Foreign Minister Zarif, Economy Minister Tayebnia, and Healthcare Minister Hashemi, I did not see anyone to step forward to support Rouhani.

 The former MP also called false pride among administration executives as yet another flaw in the executive branch under President Rouhani.

 He anticipated that economy-related ministries, including industry and mining, economy, and agriculture ministries, would undergo more changes in Rouhani’s second administration.

 Nasseri also highlighted education as one of the minuses of Rouhani’s first

administration, pointing out to dissatisfaction in universities regarding the ineptitude of the science ministry.

 Rouhani’s radical rival has the upper hand in media, and thus the spokesperson should be the head of the administration’s media arm,” Fararu quoted him as saying.

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IRDiplomacy news website: During an iftar ceremony two weeks ago, Hassan Rouhani gave his cabinet members an ultimatum. He complained about certain executives, he said, who have been ‘slipshod’ and ‘clomped behind’. Observers believe that the president’s explicit remarks indicate a sea change in Rouhani’s second administration.

Following Rouhani’s landslide win in the presidential race, a debate on substantial weaknesses in Rouhani’s first administration and the necessity to make extensive changes in the next became talk of the town.

Hassan Rouhani himself took up the same line when he told an iftar feast attended by ministers, directors, managers, and governors that he had avoided rigor in selection of his team in his first four-your term for certain reasons, which he declined to explain.

Appreciating efforts every member of the administration had made, Rouhani distinguished between those who stood by the administration in full force during the election, rolling up sleeves and those who were slipshod and fair weather friends, keeping company until midway.

“Some individuals stepped up when the administration was attacked, defending it wholeheartedly because to defend the administration was [to them] to defend the nation. Do not be mistaken. It is not advocacy of the administration or nonsense [like this]. The administration is elected by the people. We have nothing but people’s votes.

The administration and the nation are essentially the same. Everything belongs to the nation. Those who advocate the administration advocate the popular votes, the majority, and the nation,” Rouhani said in a reference to response administration officials showed in the face of attacks during presidential campaigns.

“[In contrast,] some found it hard to defend, and spoke softly [in response]. If they were pressed by 30 journalists, they would utter a word [or two]. They did not speak, they did not bare their breasts. This cannot be; we are bearing a heavy burden [of duty]. [Only] Those who are ready to shoulder the burden should step forward”

Rouhani added.

Who was Rouhani’s target of the complaint? Analyst Sadegh Zibakalam believes the criticism is more pointed at Rouhani’s close circle. “You saw few ministers, few of Rouhani’s close circle to roll up sleeves and become firmly involved. Almost 80 to 90 percent did not. Rouhani bore the burden on his own. In provinces and counties,

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Rouhani was alone. We did not see anyone from that close circle like Nahavandian or Nobakht to accompany him,” Zibakalam told pro-reform website Entekhab. “Except for Petroleum Minister Zangeneh, Foreign Minister Zarif, Economy Minister Tayebnia, and Healthcare Minister Hashemi, I did not see anyone to step forward to support Rouhani. Of course, Interior Minister Rahmani-Fazli, who is a Principlist and has never claimed to incline toward reform, acted well and helped Rouhani as much as the legal boundaries allowed him,” he added.

Zibakalam then went on to slam Rouhani’s Chief of Staff Mohammad Nahavandian and the administration’s spokesman Mohammad-Bagher Nobakht. “Apart from the fact that I seriously wonder what their cause was, I have to say they were not capable of doing anything. I honestly do not know why a man like Nobakht should be in such an important position,” Zibakalam added.

Public criticism echoed in Rouhani’s remarks

Former lawmaker and commentator Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh calls Rouhani’s remarks ‘promising’ and ‘almost unprecedented’. Speaking to moderate website Fararu, the former parliamentarian said Rouhani suffered heavily during the campaigns. “On the one hand, the people were bringing up their demands and on the other hand the rivals’ campaign promises indicated weaknesses in the administration,”

Fararu quoted him as saying. “It is a good sign that he has admitted the weaknesses, stressing that some managers have failed to roll up sleeves,” Falahatpisheh added. The Principlist activist hailed the Rouhani administration’s achievement in foreign policy, oil, and healthcare sectors, while saying it has failed in knocking economy into shape.

“The administration has particularly demonstrated an unfitting performance in controlling stagnation and unemployment. It became clear during the campaigns that the Iranian households’ main demand was employment. The administration took the first step after the election, which was taking $1.5b from the National Development Fund for rural employment,” he said, according to quotes published on Fararu.

Falahatpisheh further noted the Rouhani administration’s undesirable record in infrastructures. “For instance, the administration should have completed railways in every province, particularly those in the center, but nothing has happened yet. Mr.

Rouhani promised during a visit to Kermanshah province that railway would reach the province in four years, but he saw himself during his campaign visit that the promise has not been delivered,” he added.

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The former MP also called false pride among administration executives as yet another flaw in the executive branch under President Rouhani. “Two ministries are not willing to negotiate with each other over unfinished project, not only at ministerial level but also at director-general levels,” he reiterated. However, Rouhani’s remarks seems to Falahatpisheh as a sign the President has heard constructive criticism by the public.

He anticipated that economy-related ministries, including industry and mining, economy, and agriculture ministries, would undergo more changes in Rouhani’s second administration.

“Rouhani’s first test in the new administration is to launch it through usability evaluation. Sadly, most presidents choose their cabinet members from their own close circles, which is inappropriate. The cabinet should include the elites and its members should not stand on ceremony with the president,” Falahatpisheh said.

A message to people and ultimatum to executives

Fararu also consulted member of the Reformist Consultative Council Abdollah Nasseri who believed Rouhani had clearly reached the conclusion that the cabinet needs a reshuffle. “Rouhani’s remarks were a message for the public opinion and an ultimatum to inefficient parts of the administration,” he told Fararu.

Noting that cabinet members should be able to establish a relation with public opinion and wrestle with the opponents, he said it is clear which parts of the administration need renovation. “More than half of the cabinet should be replaced,” Nasseri added.

“In the first phase, the interior minister should be replaced so that the new minister could impose meaningful changes among governors. The way this recent election was held, its many problems and controversies around, indicate that changes are required in the ministry,” Fararu quoted him as saying. The Reformist activist went on to say areas of livelihood and economy, which include industry and commerce ministries, should also be subject to change. He further noted that the administration’s media arm should change, with the first step being a replacement of its spokesman. Nasseri also highlighted education as one of the minuses of Rouhani’s first administration, pointing out to dissatisfaction in universities regarding the ineptitude of the science ministry.

He further labeled the labor and welfare ministry as one of the unsuccessful ministries, calling for a change. “Nonetheless, healthcare minister Mr. Hashemi has bared his breast for the administration and defended it from the very beginning. In my opinion, his record gets a pass despite some weaknesses and criticism,” he added.

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Elsewhere in his remarks, Nasseri praised the agriculture minister, saying he has been successful despite the fact that he did not want to accept the responsibility at the beginning. Like Falahatpisheh, Nasseri also called for efficiency as the main criterion to form the next cabinet, instead of sticking to past connections, a reference to Rouhani’s managerial team who accompanied him to office from the Expediency Council’s Center for Strategic Studies.

Nasseri also criticized the administration’s media arm, saying once again that the spokesman should be replaced. “Mr. Rouhani’s radical rival has the upper hand in media, and thus the spokesperson should be the head of the administration’s media arm,” Fararu quoted him as saying.

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1 0 Trump’s policies and growing extremism

in the Middle East

 It seems that preventing emergence of a regional hegemony through maintaining the existing balance of forces in the Middle East tops Trump’s policies in the Middle East.

 On the other hand, strengthening suspicions about Iran’s intentions in the region and the possibility of regional Shias taking the upper hand in the Middle East has been a major source of instability in the region.

 Existence of sectarian differences and emergence of unstable subregions in the Middle East have provided extremist groups with unparalleled opportunities, because Saudi Arabia’s policy with regard to various regional crises has been to employ and equip Takfiri groups as Riyadh’s infantry.

 Changing the status of the fight against terrorism from a main policy to a marginal affair on the sidelines of concerned regional powers’ policies will provide jihadist forces in the Middle East with favorable conditions.

 On the other hand, the beginning of the arms race that Trump aims to start in the Middle East in order to create more jobs in the United States, will reduce the degree of control and supervision on conventional and unconventional weapons in the region and make it much easier for the Takfiri jihadist forces to multiply their weapons.

 What Trump is hurriedly doing in the Middle East is to do away with all prerequisites of an alliance against fundamentalism, and changing conditions and the rules regional game in favor of fundamentalist groups and currents.

Iran Review news website. Hossein Kebriaeizadeh. West Asia Analyst: The creation of Takfiri terrorism in the Middle East region and its consequences are now among the most important challenges facing the international community. A review of this phenomenon from terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, which marked a turning point in such attacks, up to the present time, will show that terrorism has experienced many different models and patterns both in theory and practice since that time. The question, however, is what model forms the basis of US President Donald Trump’s policies for fighting against extremism and what variables affect those policies?

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Extensive changes in terrorism over a relatively short period of 15 years both in terms of model and operational tactics, which vary from al-Qaeda to the unique phenomenon of Daesh that believed in conquering land, prove that this ominous phenomenon is both smart and capable of adapting to new conditions. It is as a result of this condition that fighting terrorism becomes a difficult task.

The United States, as a transregional actor, which plays a role in establishing and strengthening security order in the Middle East, has always had a direct effect on growth of terrorism in this region. The United States has gone through an oscillating course in fighting against this phenomenon, which ranged from George W. Bush’s preventive approaches and warmongering policies to Barack Obama’s policy of forging global consensus against extremism. Trump, however, has made doing away with Obama’s domestic and international policies his priority since he has entered the White House. Analysts predict that Trump’s effort to do this will deal the most important blow to processes and approaches used in fighting against terrorism.

Before Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia and his participation in the Riyadh meeting, there was no correct understanding of Trump’s Middle Eastern and anti-terrorism policies in this region. However, the meeting between Trump and heads of Arab countries gave some indications of Washington’s new policy. It seems that preventing emergence of a regional hegemony through maintaining the existing balance of forces in the Middle East tops Trump’s policies in the Middle East. Trump’s insistence on his Iranophobic policy in the region and conclusion of the recent arms deal with Saudi Arabia can be construed along the same line. On the other hand, strengthening suspicions about Iran’s intentions in the region and the possibility of regional Shias taking the upper hand in the Middle East has been a major source of instability in the region.

Existence of sectarian differences and emergence of unstable subregions in the Middle East have provided extremist groups with unparalleled opportunities, because Saudi Arabia’s policy with regard to various regional crises has been to employ and equip Takfiri groups as Riyadh’s infantry.

Another service to the expansion of extremism by Trump’s sectarian remarks and polices has been to change the global focus and shatter the international consensus on the fight against terrorism. Changing the status of the fight against terrorism from a main policy to a marginal affair on the sidelines of concerned regional powers’

policies will provide jihadist forces in the Middle East with favorable conditions.

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Therefore, although downplaying the main threat in the region in parallel to magnifying the fictitious threat from Iran by the Trump administration may play a role in bringing prosperity to US economy, the possible hiatus in fighting against terrorism will lead to qualitative and quantitative growth of terrorist groups to an irreversible level.

Trump’s policies come despite the fact that his predecessor, Barack Obama, had tried during his eight-year term in office to define comprehensive obligations in a calculated manner to make regional actors show correct behavior in the face of extremist groups. However, as a result of the sectarian rhetoric and the regional arms race encouraged by Washington, indexes of rational political behavior in dealing with extremist groups will lose their importance for regional countries.

In short, Trump is using Iranophobia as a driving force to catalyze an arms race in the region and facilitate military and economic dependence of Arab states on the West, which may bring some degree of economic prosperity to the United States. However, this effort will change the rules of the regional game in favor of the Takfiri extremists.

The war on terror needs a high level of security for those actors, who have become united to fight against extremism. Vulnerability of governmental political entities in the Middle East and weakening of the sovereign power of any actor that plays any role under the present circumstances will provide a good environment for the spread of extremism. On the other hand, the beginning of the arms race that Trump aims to start in the Middle East in order to create more jobs in the United States, will reduce the degree of control and supervision on conventional and unconventional weapons in the region and make it much easier for the Takfiri jihadist forces to multiply their weapons.

What Trump is hurriedly doing in the Middle East is to do away with all prerequisites of an alliance against fundamentalism, and changing conditions and the rules regional game in favor of fundamentalist groups and currents. Therefore, a country like Iran, as a driving force in the fight against terrorism, must carefully monitor all effective intra- and extra-regional factors that can help extremism grow in the Middle East.