Paris, 14 January 2021 OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release
Data for 33 OECD member countries and 6 OECD non-member economies are available at:
http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=MEI_CLI Methodological Notes are available at:
www.oecd.org/sdd/leading-indicators/44728410.pdf Watch our video explaining the CLIs:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=UY8iPW0GVAo Next release:
9 February 2021
Contacts:
For further information journalists are invited the OECD's Media Relations Division on (33) 1 45 24 97 00 or e-mail [email protected].
For technical questions contact [email protected]
CLIs continue to indicate a mixed picture across the major economies
The OECD Composite leading indicators (CLIs) continue to recover from the COVID-19 crisis lows in most major economies, although the pace of growth varies.
Among large OECD economies, the CLIs for the United States and Japan continue to point to stable growth, which is now also the assessment for the euro area as a whole including Germany, France and Italy. The CLI for Canada is improving steadily, while in the United Kingdom the CLI continues to point to a slowdown.
Among major emerging economies, the CLIs for Brazil and the manufacturing sector of China continue to signal a steady increase while in India and Russia the CLIs continue to point to stable growth.
Although vaccinations have begun, governments’ efforts to contain COVID-19 are ongoing and the rapidly changing nature of such measures mean that indicators used in the CLI compilation may fluctuate. As such, the CLIs should be interpreted with care.
90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
84 88 92 96 100 104 108
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
88 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
The above graphs show country specific composite leading indicators (CLIs solid line, left axis and the relative month-on-month growth
rate, right axis). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by six to nine months. The
horizontal line at 100 represents the trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles
mark provisional turning-points that may be reversed.
Paris, 14 January 2021 OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release
92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
88 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
88 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
88 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
The graphs show country specific composite leading indicators (CLIs solid line, left axis and the relative month-on-month growth rate, right axis). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by six to nine months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the trend of economic activity.
Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the CLI. Blank
triangles mark provisional turning-points that may be reversed.
Paris, 14 January 2021 OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release
Table 1: Composite Leading Indicators*
Ratio to trend, amplitude
adjusted Month on Month change Year on Year change
Growth cycle outlook
Memorandum item Last month’s growth cycle outlook
(when different from current assessment)
(long term average =100) (%) (%)
2020 2020 Latest
month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
OECD Area
98.7 98.9 99.1 99.3 99.5 0.60 0.20 0.17 0.17 0.19 0.09 Stable growthEuro Area
98.3 98.5 98.6 98.6 98.7 0.37 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.11 -0.90 Stable growth Moderating growthMajor Five Asia**
97.9 98.4 98.7 99.0 99.3 0.90 0.52 0.28 0.32 0.28 0.52 Steady increaseMajor Seven
98.6 98.8 99.0 99.2 99.4 0.65 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.20 0.18 Stable growthCanada
99.3 99.5 99.7 100.1 100.6 0.57 0.23 0.22 0.40 0.47 2.48 Steady increase Stable growthFrance
97.6 97.6 97.6 97.6 97.7 0.16 0.03 0.00 -0.04 0.11 -1.94 Stable growth Moderating growthJapan
99.0 99.2 99.4 99.6 99.7 0.55 0.21 0.17 0.18 0.14 0.03 Stable growthGermany
99.6 99.8 99.9 100.1 100.1 0.46 0.17 0.14 0.11 0.07 0.99 Stable growth Moderating growthItaly
98.7 99.1 99.4 99.4 99.5 0.68 0.40 0.31 0.05 0.05 -0.11 Stable growth Moderating growthUnited Kingdom
99.7 99.5 99.3 99.2 99.3 1.12 -0.20 -0.20 -0.12 0.10 1.73 Continued slowdownUnited States
98.2 98.5 98.7 99.0 99.2 0.72 0.21 0.27 0.28 0.27 -0.05 Stable growthBrazil
101.5 102.2 102.8 103.5 104.2 0.63 0.65 0.64 0.65 0.68 1.26 Steady increaseChina***
99.1 99.4 99.8 100.2 100.6 0.49 0.39 0.39 0.41 0.37 2.82 Steady increaseIndia
95.3 96.5 96.6 96.8 97.0 2.59 1.32 0.10 0.20 0.20 -2.75 Stable growth Moderating growthRussia
99.0 99.1 99.2 99.3 99.5 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.14 0.22 -0.54 Stable growth* CLI data for 33 OECD member countries and 6 OECD non-member economies are available at:
http://stats.oecd.org/default.aspx?datasetcode=MEI_CLI
Please note that CLI estimates for Mexico and New Zealand could not be updated this month.
** China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Korea.
*** The reference series for China is the value added of industry, at 1995 constant prices,100 million Yuan.
