N AT I O N A L C E N T E R F O R P O L I C Y A N A LYS I S
Food Security. The World Health Organization (WHO) measures food security by supply, accessibility and consumption. Many observers fear rising temperatures will increase food insecurity in South and Southeast Asia. However, food production has increased dramatically over the past 50 years (see Figure I). Though Southeast Asian food production dipped in the 1970s, it recovered and has substantially increased since the 1990s.
Furthermore, the amount of arable land has remained stable in South Asia and has increased in Southeast Asia, signaling climate change has yet to have an effect on food security and that food production will be able to keep up. Indeed, agronomist and geographer Craig Idso estimates that, worldwide, increased plant production due to increased levels of CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere grew in annual value from $18.5 billion in 1961 to over $140 billion by 2011 and amounted to $3.2 trillion over a 50-year period. Thus, food production in South and Southeast Asia will likely continue its upward trend beyond 2011.
Biodiversity. Another fear regarding climate change is widespread biodiversity loss.
According to a study published by TRENDS in Ecology and Evolution, Southeast Asia is one of the world’s richest areas in number of species and in endemism –– a species’ uniqueness to a geographic location. Though the study’s authors fear losses in biodiversity, none of the threats they
Calming Fears of Climate Change in South and Southeast Asia
Brief Analysis No. 801 by Tanner Davis August 27, 2014
South and Southeast Asia.
Studies have focused on South and Southeast Asia due to their unique vulnerability to projected effects of climate change: a decline in agricultural production, rising sea levels, increased flooding, biodiversity loss, drought and more intense natural disasters. Countries in these regions are considered especially vulnerable because most are situated on peninsulas or islands and have highly populated coastal cities. With much of their investment and development concentrated in coastal areas, these regions have the most to lose if predictions pan out.
Maplecroft, a global risk analysis company, ranks Bangladesh as the country most at risk to climate change effects, with Cambodia, the Philippines, India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand not far behind. Africa and the Caribbean harbor many other at-risk countries, but the five cities at the most
“extreme risk” — Dhaka, Mumbai, Kolkata, Manila and Bangkok
— all lie in South or Southeast Asia. Indeed, reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) conclude climate change will slow economic growth, erode food security and trigger new poverty traps, particularly in these two regions.
Recent regional studies claim the Earth is beginning to feel the effects of climate change, especially South and Southeast Asia.
Yet, thus far, climate change has had no discernible effect on these regions, and recent analyses indicate adaptation is the preferable strategy to deal with any effects that may occur in the future.
Dallas Headquarters:
14180 Dallas Parkway, Suite 350 Dallas, TX 75254
972.386.6272 www.ncpa.org Washington Office:
601 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Suite 900, South Building
Washington, DC 20004 202.220.3082
Calming Fears of Climate Change in South and Southeast Asia
Note: Nothing written here should be construed as necessarily reflecting the views of the National Center for Policy Analysis or as an attempt to aid or hinder the passage of any legislation. The NCPA is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit public policy organization. We depend entirely on the financial support of individuals, corporations and foundations that believe in private sector solutions to public policy problems. You can contribute to our effort by mailing your donation to P.O. Box 650298, Dallas, TX 75265-9600 or by visiting our Web site at www.ncpa.org and clicking “Support Us.”
cite — forest conversion, forest fires, hunting for bushmeat and the wildlife trade — involve climate change.
Coral Reef Bleaching.
Climate change has already affected biodiversity in South and Southeast Asia, with bleached coral reefs correlating with rising sea temperatures. However, sea temperature rises appear to have tapered off in recent years, allowing the coral to adapt over time. Indeed, a study published by the Public Library of Science found that rising sea temperatures have been destroying coral reefs in Southeast Asia, but the reefs have adapted to the growing thermal stress over the past 20 years.
Rising Sea Levels. Scientists agree sea levels will continue to rise gradually, but there is no consensus on the exact range. IPCC lead scientists John Church and Neil White predict only a 28-to-34- centimeter rise— roughly one-third of one meter — by 2100. According to a World Bank report, even a one-meter sea level rise would affect only 1 percent to 2 percent of the land area, population and farmland in developing countries (see Figure
II). A one meter rise would reduce GDP in the affected countries by 0.5 percent to 2 percent.
Growth and Adaptation to Climate Change. Some believe that regional economic growth has been hindered by infrastructure destruction due to more severe natural disasters.
However, there is evidence that climate change has had beneficial effects on these economies so far and will continue to help over the long term. With GDP growth averaging near five and a half percent, South
and Southeast Asia are among the fastest growing regions globally and appear strong enough to implement adaptation projects.
Thirteen of the 18 nations in these regions have already implemented 182 climate change-related measures to mitigate or adapt to the effects of climate change. However, the majority of these projects are designed to mitigate, rather than adapt to, climate change. Mitigation generally means projects, regulations or taxes aimed at reducing emissions of greenhouse gases implicated in climate change. Adaptation strategies, by contrast, include focusing
on natural disaster recovery and restoration, coral rehabilitation, water resource management, protecting wildlife and so forth.
Given the uncertainty in climate science, adaptation appears to be a more cost-effective approach than mitigation.
Tanner Davis is a research associate with the National Center for Policy Analysis.
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Weighted Average of Food Production Per Year Relative to the Base Period (2004-2006)
Figure I
Food Production Index
Southeast Asia South Asia
Source: "World Development Indicators," World Bank, May 6, 2014.
*Food production index covers food crops that are considered edible and that contain nutrients. Coffee and tea are excluded because, although edible, they have no nutritive value.
1.1%
2.2% 2.1%
1.3%
0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3%
Land Area Population GDP Loss Farmland Loss
Southeast Asia South Asia
Source: Susmita Dasgupta et al., “The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis,” World Bank, February 2007.
Figure II
Effects of a One-Meter Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries (percentages)
