2013 천안국제웰빙식품엑스포 타당성 조사 연구

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(1)C2011- 3 | 2011.2. 2013 천안국제웰빙식품엑스포 타당성 조사 연구. 최 장 윤 안. 경 재 병 선. 환 봉 석 진. 연 구 위 원 부연구위원 연. 구. 원. 연. 구. 원.

(2) 연구 담당 최 장 윤 안. 경 재 병 선. 환 봉 석 진. 연 구 위 부연구위 연 구 연 구. 원 원 원 원. 연구 총괄, 제1장 집필 제6장, 제7장 집필 제2~5장 집필 관련 자료 수집 및 정리.

(3) 머 리 말. 전세계적으로 소득수준의 향상과 의학의 발달 등으로 평균수명이 늘어나면서 건강에 대한 관심이 높아지고 있다. 아프리카와 아시아의 일부 지역에는 아직 기아에서 벗어나 지 못한 인구가 적지 않지만, 선진국을 중심으로 한 대부분의 국가에서는 식생활 패턴이 크게 변화하고 있다. 농식품 소비자들은 과거의 열량 위주에서 간편성, 맛, 건강 기능성 등 질적인 측면을 중시하고 있다. 한마디로 웰빙식품에 대한 소비가 크게 증가하고 있으 며, 이에 따라 국내·외 식품산업의 시장 규모가 크게 확대되고 있다. 웰빙식품을 포함한 식품산업의 성장은 식품산업뿐만 아니라 원자재를 공급하는 농수 산업의 발전을 동반하기 때문에 국가 경제발전에 기여하는 바가 크다. 따라서 선진 각국 에서는 식품산업, 특히 웰빙식품산업을 적극 육성·발전시켜 세계 시장을 확장하려 하고 있다. 그러나 우리나라는 아직 세계 식품 시장에서 차지하는 비중이 미미한 실정으로, 이러한 세계 시장 흐름에 맞추어 웰빙식품산업을 적극 발전시킬 필요가 있다. 천안시는 웰빙식품산업의 발전을 꾀하기 위하여 2009년에 웰빙식품엑스포를 개최한 바 있으며, 기대 이상의 성과를 거두었다. 천안시는 이러한 효과를 지속하고 웰빙식품산 업 발전을 도모하기 위해서는 국제적 행사가 필요하다는 판단에 따라 ‘2013천안국제웰 빙식품엑스포’를 계획하고 있다. 이 연구의 목적은 2013천안국제웰빙식품엑스포의 경제적·정책적 타당성을 검토하는 것이다. 기본계획은 2009년 엑스포 경험을 토대로 하여 내용이 보다 짜임새 있게 수립된 것으로 보인다. 아울러 비용/편익 비율 등의 기법을 활용하여 재무적 타당성을 분석하였 으며, 엑스포가 계획대로 개최될 경우 전국과 충남지역에 미치는 파급효과를 측정하였 다. 중앙정부 및 충청남도와 긴밀한 협조하에 추진한다면 소기의 성과를 거둘 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. 아무쪼록 이 연구 결과가 우리나라 웰빙식품산업을 발전시키고, 나아 가 경제 활성화와 농식품 수출증대에 기여하는 자료로 활용되기를 기대한다. 2011. 2. 한국농촌경제연구원장 오 세 익.

(4) 요. 약. WTO체제 하에서 한·미, 한·EU FTA 등이 추진되면서 농산물시장개방은 가속화되고 있음. 한편 소득수준의 향상과 평균수명의 연장에 따라 웰빙(well-being)에 대한 관심이 고조되고 있으며, 신선하고 안전한 먹을거리에 대한 선호가 확대되고 있음. 이러한 시대 적 흐름에 선제적으로 대응하기 위하여 천안시는 2009년 천안웰빙식품엑스포를 개최하 였으며, 개최 효과를 지속·확산시키고, 나아가 우리나라의 첨단 식품산업의 육성‧발전을 도모하기 위하여 2013년 천안국제웰빙식품엑스포 개최를 계획하고 있음. 본 연구의 목적은 ‘2013천안국제웰빙식품엑스포 기본계획’의 타당성을 검토하고, 이 를 바탕으로 경제적 파급효과를 분석하는 것임. 주요 연구내용은 국내·외 식품산업의 현황과 전망, 개최지(천안시)의 여건 분석, 엑스 포 기본계획 검토, 방문객 수 수요추정, 타당성 검토 등임. 이를 위하여 기존의 연구자료 및 통계자료를 활용하였으며, 국민여행실태조사와 대국민 설문조사를 통하여 수요추정 을 하였음. 엑스포 개최 타당성을 검토하기 위하여 비용/편익 비율(Benefit-Cost Ratio: BCR)과 순현재가치(Net Present Value: NPV)를 통해 재무적 타당성을 분석하였으며, 엑 스포 개최에 따른 경제적 파급효과를 추정하기 위하여 지역산업연관모형을 활용하여 전 국 및 충남지역에 미치는 영향(효과)을 분석하였음. 최근 식품의 가공 단계에서 각종 첨가제와 화학제품 등의 첨가, 가공 과정에서의 이물 질 유입 등 식품 안전성이 위협받음에 따라 식품 안전에 대한 소비자의 관심과 인식이 증대되고 있음. 이에 따라 대표적인 웰빙식품이라고 할 수 있는 친환경 및 유기 농업에 대한 수요가 급증하고, 그 생산과 교역규모 역시 급속도로 성장하고 있으나, 대부분의 유럽 국가들과 미국의 경우 공급부족현상이 나타나면서 상당 부분을 수입에 의존하고 있음. 이러한 세계 식품시장에서 우리나라 식품산업의 발전과 수출 증대를 도모하기 위 하여 우리나라 웰빙식품을 홍보하기 위한 방안이 모색되어야 하며, 국제웰빙식품엑스포 가 그 계기가 될 수 있음. 천안시는 이러한 국제웰빙식품엑스포를 개최하는 데 적합한 것으로 나타남. 천안시는 무엇보다 철도, 도로, 항공, 수상교통의 결절지로서 중부지역 식품물류 중심지이며, 식품 산업 중장기 발전계획을 통하여 관련 인프라를 조성 및 확충하고 있어 향후 식품산업 클러스터로 성장할 수 있는 지역임. 또한 2009천안웰빙식품엑스포의 성공적인 개최와. - iii -.

(5) 노하우(Know-How)를 갖고 있음은 물론, 개최 장소(천안삼거리공원)의 확충 및 개발을 위하여 계속적인 노력을 하고 있음. 천안시는 2009년 세계보건기구(WHO)로부터 건강 도시로 승인받음으로써 대내·외적으로 웰빙트렌드에 부합하는 지역임을 증명한 바 있으 며, 지역 주민들의 참여의지와 기대감 및 호응이 매우 긍정적인 것으로 나타남. 2013천안국제웰빙식품엑스포 방문객 수는 기본계획에서 80만 명, 2009국민여행실태 조사 결과를 기초로 분석한 결과 76만 명, 19세 이상 전국민 설문조사를 분석한 결과 65만 명으로 각각 추정되었음. 본 연구는 2009천안웰빙식품엑스포를 비롯한 유사 엑스 포의 방문객 수를 고려하였을 때, 기본계획 추정치 80만 명이 타당한 것으로 판단하였 음. 이중 외국인 방문객 수는 약 5만 명 정도로 추정되었음. 경제적 타당성에 대한 시나리오별 분석 결과, 할인율 4.31%(지역개발공채), 5.5%(KDI 예비타당성 지침)에서 모두 BCR이 1.11이 나왔으며, NPV 또한 17억 9천만 원~ 18억 3천만 원으로 경제성이 있는 것으로 분석되었음. 각종 행사 수입과 할인율(4.31% 기준) 의 민감도 분석 결과에서도 BCR 값이 1.02 ~ 1.16으로 나타나, 경제성이 있는 것으로 분석되었음. 엑스포 개최를 위한 기반시설 및 건축시설공사 투자에 92억 원, 엑스포 개최기간 중 전시연출 및 행사운영을 위한 소비지출 규모 88억 원, 관람객 소비지출 규모 863억 원을 통해서 파급되는 경제적 효과는 전국적으로 총생산 2,146억 원이 유발되며, 부가가치는 843억 원, 고용은 3,151명이 창출될 것으로 추정됨. 엑스포 개최지역인 충남(천안)에는 총생산이 1,411억 원, 부가가치는 544억 원, 고용은 2,341 명이 창출되어, 도소매‧음식점 및 숙박, 운수 및 보관, 기타, 건설, 부동산 및 사업 서비스 등 관광 관련 지출과 밀접한 관련이 있는 산업에 대한 파급효과가 큰 것으로 나 타남. 총생산을 기준으로 전 산업 대비 도소매‧음식점 및 숙박이 40.2%, 운수 및 보관이 15.5%, 기타 부문이 22.7%이며, 사회 및 기타서비스는 9.0%를 차지함. 파급효과가 가장 큰 도소매‧음식점 및 숙박의 경우 총생산이 567억 원, 부가가치는 243억 원, 고용의 파 급효과는 1,409명으로 추정됨. 종합적으로, 2013천안국제웰빙식품엑스포는 전체적으로 수익성이 있는 것으로 분석되 었음. 향후 성공적인 유치 및 개최를 위해서는 구체적인 추진전략이 마련되어야 하며, 국 내·외 방문객 유인 및 홍보활동 등 적극적인 마케팅 계획을 수립·추진할 필요가 있음.. - iv -.

(6) < 2013천안국제웰빙식품엑스포의 개요 > 구. 분. 행 사 명. 내. 용. 2013천안국제웰빙식품엑스포 (Cheonan 2013 International Well-being Food EXPO). 주. 제. 생명의 맛 건강한 삶(안). 기. 간. 2013. 09. 27 (금) ～ 10. 20 (일) / 총 24일간. 장. 소. 천안삼거리공원. 규. 모. 총 359,700㎡ (행사장 208,060㎡, 주차장 151,640㎡). 유치목표. 약 80만 명 / 해외 15개국 및 150개 단체 및 기업. 주. 최. 천안시. 주. 관. (재)천안웰빙식품엑스포조직위원회. 내. 용. 전시, 공연, 학술, 체험, 이벤트, 공식행사 등. 예 산 액. 총 180억 원. - v -.

(7) ABSTRACT. A Feasibility Study for Cheonan 2013 International Well-being Food Expo.. Under WTO, opening the Korean farmers market to the world is being accelerated with progress of Korea-USA and EU FTA. With increasing income and extended average lives, people are more interested in well-being and prefer fresh and safe foods more and more. For responding to such a trend, the Cheonan City Council hosted the 2009 Cheonan Well-being Food Expo, and has a plan for hosting the Cheonan 2013 International Well-being Food Expo in order to continue and diffuse such an effect of the Expo and to culture and develop the advanced food industry in Korea. The purpose of this study is to examine feasibility of the 'Master Plan of Cheonan 2013 International Well-being Food Expo' and to analyze the following economic effect. Key details of this study include current state and prospect for the Korean and international food industry, analysis of conditions of Cheonan, examination of the master plan for the Expo, estimate of visitors, and examination of feasibility. To this end, I used existing data and statistics, and estimated the demand by means of survey for people's traveling and questionnaires for ordinary Koreans. For examining financial feasibility for hosting the Expo, BCR (Benefit-Cost Ratio) and NPV (Net Present Value) was applied. For estimating the economic effect following the Expo, the effect on all over the country and the Choongnam Province was analyzed, using the MRIO (Model of Regional Input-Output). While the current trend is that various additives and chemicals are applied in food processing, food safety is thus threatened by the harmful substances applied in food processing and consumers are more and more interested in food safety. Therefore, there is a highly increasing demand for environment-friendly and organic farming products, which are typical well-being foods. Production and transactions thereof are phenomenally increasing, but most of European countries and America cannot fully meet the demand and depend highly on imported materials. For developing the Korean food industry and exporting more products in the world food market as described - vi -.

(8) above, it is needed to develop a plan for publicizing Korean well-being foods, and the International Well-being Food Expo can thus be a turning point. Cheonan is shown appropriate for hosting the Cheonan 2013 International Well-being Food Expo. Cheonan is a center of food logistics in the central region of Korea as a traffic node of railways, roads, airways and waterways, constructing and expanding infrastructures with the mid- and long-term development plan for the food industry to grow a food industry cluster. The Cheonan City Council has an experience and know-how for having hosted the successful 2009 Cheonan Well-being Food Expo and is trying to develop the place for International Well-being Food Expo (in Cheonan Samgeori park). Cheonan was approved as a healthy city from WHO in 2009 to prove a place appropriate for the well-being image in Korea and other countries and it was shown that very positive citizens have expectation and agreed for the Expo. The number of visitors for the Cheonan 2013 International Well-being Food Expo was estimated to be 800,000 in the Master Plan, 760,000 in the result of surveying people's traveling and 650,000 in the result of questionnaires for ordinary Koreans for people older than 19. In this study, it is decided that 800,000 in the Master Plan would be feasible, considering the number of visitors in other similar expo events including the 2009 Cheonan International Well-being Food Expo. It was estimated that the number of visitors from other countries would be approximately 50,000. In analysis of each scenario for the economic feasibility, both of the discount ratio of 4.31% (regional development bond) and 5.5% (pre-feasibility guideline) was 1.11 for BCR. NPV was 1.7 billion and 90 million won to 1.8 billion and 30 million won which shows economic efficiency. In the analysis result with respect to sensitivity of income from events and the discount ratio (on the basis of 4.31%), BCR was 1.02 to 1.16 which shows economic efficiency. It is estimated that nationwide economic effect would be 214.6 billion won, the value added would be 84.3 billion won and employment would be created for 3,151 persons, led by 9.2 billion won of investment to constructing infrastructures and facilities, 8.8 billion won of expenditure on exhibitions and event operation during the Expo period, and 86.3 billion won of visitors' expenditure. Choongnam (Cheonan) where the Expo is held will have a significant effect on the industries closely associated with tourism-related expenditure, e.g., wholesale and retail restaurants, accommodations, transportation and storage, constructions, real estate, business services, etc., estimated with gross product of 141.1 billion won, value added. - vii -.

(9) of 54.4 billion won and employment of 2,341 persons. On the basis of gross product, the sector of wholesale and retail restaurants occupies 40.2% showing the greatest effect, the transportation and storage 15.5%, the others 22.7%, and social and other services 9.0% in the entire industries. Comprehensively, the Cheonan 2013 International Well-being Food Expo was analyzed profitable in general. For successfully hosting and holding Cheonan 2013 International Well-being Food Expo, it is necessary to prepare a specific promotion strategy, to establish and promote positive marketing plans, e.g., for attracting Korean and overseas visitors and public relations, etc. < Overview of Cheonan 2013 International Well-being Food Expo> Description Event. Cheonan 2013 International Well-being Food EXPO. Subject. Taste for life and healthy living (draft). Period. September 27 to October 20, 2013 (24 days). Venue. Cheonan Samgeori Park. Site. 359,700㎡ (events: 208,060㎡, parking: 151,640㎡). Estimates. Approx, 800,000 visitors / 15 countries and 150 organizations and enterprises. Host. The Cheonan City Council. Supervision. The Cheonan Organizing Committee for Well-being Food Expo. Contents. Exhibitions, performance, seminars, experience events, entertaining events, formal events, etc.. Budget. 18 billion won. Researchers: Kyeong-Hwan Choi, Jae Bong Chang, Byeong-seok Yoon, Sun-Jin Ahn. Research period: 2010. 11. - 2011. 2. E-mail address: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected].. - viii -.

(10) 차. 제1장 서. 례. 론. 1. 연구의 배경 및 목적 ···································································································· 1 2. 연구의 범위 및 내용 ···································································································· 2 3. 연구방법 ························································································································· 6 제2장 식품산업의 현황과 전망 1. 식품산업의 현황 ··········································································································· 7 2. 웰빙식품 ······················································································································· 18 3. 식품산업과 농업의 연계 ···························································································· 27 4. 식품산업 관련 정책 ···································································································· 30 5. 소결 ······························································································································ 41 제3장 개최지(천안시) 여건 분석 1. 일반현황 ······················································································································· 45 2. 식품산업 현황 및 발전계획 ······················································································· 53 3. 2009천안웰빙식품엑스포 ···························································································· 65 4. 건강도시로서의 천안시 조성 ····················································································· 68 5. 개최지역 주민 의식 조사 ·························································································· 69 6. 소결 - 개최지로서의 천안시 ··················································································· 75 제4장 국내외 엑스포 사례 분석 1. 국내 엑스포 사례 ······································································································· 79 2. 해외 엑스포 사례 ······································································································· 86 3. 관련 사례의 시사점 ···································································································· 87 제5장 기본구상 및 기본계획 1. 기본구상 ······················································································································· 89 2. 회장조성계획 ··············································································································· 95. - ix -.

(11) 3. 시설계획 ··················································································································· 101 4. 전시관 구성 및 연출 계획 ···················································································· 106 5. 학술회의 개최 계획 ································································································ 112 6. 홍보 및 유치 계획 ·································································································· 116 7. 이벤트 계획 ············································································································· 121 8. 운영계획 ··················································································································· 126 9. 사후활용 계획 ········································································································· 133 10. 소결 ·························································································································· 136 제6장 재무성 분석 1. 재무성 분석 ············································································································· 139 2. 비용과 수입 분석 ···································································································· 144 3.『2013천안국제웰빙식품엑스포』사업의 재무성 분석 ········································· 164 제7장 경제적‧정책적 타당성 분석 1. 경제적 타당성 분석 ································································································ 169 2. 정책적 타당성 분석 ································································································ 178 부록 1. 대국민 방문의향 조사표 ···················································································· 183 2. 천안시민 의식 조사표 ························································································ 187 참고문헌 ····························································································································· 191. - x -.

(12) 표 차 례. 제2장 표 2 - 1. 식품산업 사업체 및 종사자 ············································································ 8 표 2 - 2. 식품산업 매출액 현황 ····················································································· 9 표 2 - 3. 식료품제조업 규모 ························································································· 10 표 2 - 4. 가공식품 대륙별 수출입 현황(2008) ··························································· 11 표 2 - 5. 농식품 수출입 현황 ······················································································· 12 표 2 - 6. 주요 식품수입국가에서 국산식품의 비중(2007) ········································· 14 표 2 - 7. 세계 식품시장 규모 ······················································································· 15 표 2 - 8. 식품위해요소의 유형 ····················································································· 19 표 2 - 9. 친환경농산물의 유형 및 기준 ······································································ 20 표 2-10. 친환경농산물 인증 실적 변화 ······································································ 22 표 2-11. 세계 유기농업 실천 현황(2008) ··································································· 24 표 2-12. 대륙별 유기농지 면적 변화 ·········································································· 25 표 2-13. 식품산업의 생산유발효과 ············································································· 29 표 2-14. 식품산업의 고용유발계수 ············································································· 29 표 2-15. 주요 품목별 수출 목표 ················································································· 37 제3장 표 3 - 1. 천안시 인구 현황 ··························································································· 47 표 3 - 2. 천안시 농가 및 농가인구 현황 ···································································· 50 표 3 - 3. 천안시 경지면적 현황 ··················································································· 51 표 3 - 4. 천안시 식품산업 사업체 수 및 종사자 수 추이 ········································ 53 표 3 - 5. 천안시 10인 이상 식품제조업체 주요 경영 지표 ······································ 54 표 3 - 6. 천안시의 친환경농산물 인증실적 현황 ······················································· 55 표 3 - 7. 식품산업 연차별 투자 계획 ·········································································· 62 표 3 - 8. 천안시 건강도시 주요 사업 ·········································································· 68. - xi -.