Urbanization and the impact of migration on urbanization

Urbanization has increased slowly and is partly influenced by two factors: migration and changes in administrative units. The impact of administrative factors on urbanization mainly took place in the South East and the Red River Delta regions and did not seem to have an impact in the Central Highlands.

Urban areas are densely populated and mainly operate non-agricultural economic activities, which can include political, administrative, economic, cultural, or specialized centers with the role of promoting the socio-economic development of a nation, territory or locality, including the inner city and suburbs of a city, inner town and suburbs of a town, and townships³⁵.

For the scope of the analysis in this chapter, the urbanization assessment was based on changes in the proportion of urban populations compared to the total population. The urban population included usual residents in wards and towns throughout the country. Populations living in communes were defined as rural populations.

Urbanization is affected by the following: (1) the rate of natural increases in urban areas, (2) the flow of people from rural to urban areas, and (3) the impact of administrative factors (including expansions and changes to administrative boundaries per administrative decisions).

7.3.1. Rate of urbanization

Over the last three decades, the proportion of the Vietnamese urban population has increased by 14.3 percentage points, up from 20.1% in 1989 to 34.4% in 2019. The average urban population growth rate from 2009-2019 was only 2.64% per year, lower than the urban population growth rate from 1999-2009 (3.4% per year).

35 Law on Urban Planning No. 30/2009/QH12.

114 / RESULTS - THE VIET NAM POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUS OF 00:00 HOURS ON 1 APRIL 2019 RESULTS - THE VIET NAM POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUS OF 00:00 HOURS ON 1 APRIL 2019 | 111 Figure 7.8: Proportion of urban population, 1989-2019

Unit: %

The results of the 2019 Census showed that Viet Nam has not achieved either of its goals on urbanization by 2015 and 2020 under the National Urban Development Program approved by the Prime Minister³⁶ in regards to increasing the proportion of the urban population.

Despite the increase in the size and growth rate of the urban population, the proportion of urban populations in Viet Nam was still low compared to developed countries in the world as well as other countries in the region. In developed countries like the U.S., Australia, and Europe, the proportion of the urban population accounts for about 80% of the total population (the U.S.: 82%, Canada: 81%, Australia: 86%, and Europe: 74%). In comparison with other countries in the region, the proportion of the urban population in Viet Nam was only higher than that of Timor-Leste (31%), Myanmar (29%), and Cambodia (23%)³⁷.

7.3.2. Impact of migration on urbanization

The results of the 2019 Census showed that migration contributed to a 1.2-million-person increase in the urban population, accounting for 3.5% of the urban population. Compared to 2009, the number of net migrants in urban areas³⁸ decreased by nearly 400,000 persons-from 1.6 million persons to 1.2 million persons-equivalent to a third of the area’s net migrants. The contribution of net migration to urbanization was reflected in the proportion of net migrants in the total urban population, which decreased 2.4 times from 8.3% in 2009 to 3.5% in 2019.

36 Viet Nam's urbanization goals for the period of 2012-2020 were approved by the Prime Minister in Decision No. 1659/QD-TTg dated 7 November 2012: by 2015 urbanization reached 38%, by 2020 this figure will reach 45%.

37 Source: Population Reference Bureau (PRB).

38 Net in-migrants of urban areas were calculated by the number of rural-urban migrants minus the number of urban-rural migrants.

20.1

23.7

29.6

34.4

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019

20.1

23.7

29.6

34.4

0 10 20 30 40

1989 1999 2009 2019

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Table 7.10: Number and net migration rate in urban areas, 2009-2019

2009 2019

Rural-Urban (Thousand persons) 2,112.1 1,772.5

Urban-Rural (Thousand persons) 564.9 616.1

Net migration of urban areas (Thousand persons) 1,547.1 1,156.4 Proportion of net migrants in the total urban population (%) 8.3 3.5

The South East region had the highest rate of urbanization in the country with 62.8% of its population in urban areas and an average urban population growth rate from 2009-2019 of 3.31%.

The number of net migrants in this region accounted for 63% of the total net migration of urban areas nationwide with nearly 726,500 persons, equivalent to 6.5% of the urban population of the region. The proportion of net migrants in the total urban population of the Mekong River Delta was the lowest, equivalent to 3.2% of the entire country and accounting for only 0.8% of the urban population in the region.

Table 7.11: Number of migrants and net migration rate to urban areas by socio-economic region Northern

midlands mountain and

areas

Red River Delta

North Central Central and coastal areas

Central

Highlands South East

Mekong River Delta

Rural-Urban (Thousand persons) 93.9 372.8 176.8 47.0 934.1 147.9

Urban-Rural (Thousand persons) 41.2 122.2 102.2 31.7 207.6 111.2

Net migration of urban areas

(Thousand persons) 52.7 250.5 74.6 15.3 726.5 36.7

Proportion of net migrants in the

total urban population (%) 2.3 3.2 1.3 0.9 6.5 0.8

7.3.3. Impact of administrative factors on urbanization

In 2009, the country had 11,066 communes, wards, or towns, 1,944 of which were urban areas with a total population of 25.4 million persons, or 29.6% of the population. Ten years later, the total number of communes, wards, or towns across the country was 11,160 (including 2,203 wards or towns), an increase of 94 commune-level administrative units. Compared to 2009, the total number of wards or towns had increased by 259 units; 210 communes were converted into wards or towns and 49 wards and towns were newly established per administrative decisions.

116 / RESULTS - THE VIET NAM POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUS OF 00:00 HOURS ON 1 APRIL 2019 RESULTS - THE VIET NAM POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUS OF 00:00 HOURS ON 1 APRIL 2019 | 113 Assuming natural and mechanical population growth factors remained unchanged, administrative decisions have transformed an estimated 4.1 million rural residents into urban residents, equivalent to 12.3% of the urban population nationwide in 2019.

By socio-economic regions, the impact of administrative factors on urbanization mainly took place in the South East and the Red River Delta, and did not seem to have an impact in the Central Highlands.

Figure 7.9: Impact of administrative factors on urbanization by socio-economic region

Unit: %

6.2

28.7

17.8

0.4 37.8

9.1

Northern midlands and moutain areas Red River Delta North Central and Central coastal areas Central Highlands

South East Mekong River Delta

6.2

28.7

17.8

0.4 37.8

9.1

Northern midlands and moutain areas Red River Delta North Central and Central coastal areas Central Highlands

South East Mekong River Delta

Photo: UNFPA Viet Nam/ Nguyen Minh Duc

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