KEY FINDINGS
CHAPTER 5: FERTILITY
5.1. Total fertility rate
RESULTS - THE VIET NAM POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUS OF 00:00 HOURS ON 1 APRIL 2019 RESULTS - THE VIET NAM POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUS OF 00:00 HOURS ON 1 APRIL 2019 / 75| 73
7674 | / RESULTS - THE VIET NAM POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUS OF 00:00 HOURS ON 1 APRIL 2019RESULTS - THE VIET NAM POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUS OF 00:00 HOURS ON 1 APRIL 2019 Figure 5.1: Total fertility rate, 2001-2019
Unit: Children per woman
Sources:
- 2010-2018: Population Change and Family Planning Surveys in years 2010-2018;
- 2014: the 2014 Intercensal population and housing survey.
In 2019, Viet Nam's TFR was lower than the average TFR among Southeast Asian countries (an average of 2.2 children per woman for the region). Viet Nam's TFR was only higher than four countries in the Southeast Asian region: Brunei and Malaysia (1.9 children per woman), Thailand (1.5 children per woman), and Singapore (1.1 children per woman)22.
According to the results of the 2019 Census, the TFR of urban areas was 1.83 children per woman, lower than in rural areas (2.26 children per woman). The TFR in urban areas has been consistently lower than replacement fertility for nearly two decades, while the TFR in rural areas has been consistently higher than replacement fertility.
22Source: https://www.prb.org/international/geography/southeast-asia.
2.25 2.28
2.12 2.23
2.11 2.09
2.07 2.08
2.03 2.00 1.99
2.05 2.10 2.09 2.10 2.09
2.04 2.05 2.09
1.80 1.85 1.90 1.95 2.00 2.05 2.10 2.15 2.20 2.25 2.30 2.35
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Năm điều tra
Mức sinh thay thế 2.25
2.28
2.12 2.23
2.11 2.09 2.07
2.08
2.03 2.00 1.99
2.05 2.09 2.10
2.09
2.05 2.09 2.35
2.30 2.25 2.20 2.15 2.10 2.05 2.00 1.95 1.90 1.85
1.80 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Survey year Replacement fertility level
2.04 2.10
RESULTS - THE VIET NAM POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUS OF 00:00 HOURS ON 1 APRIL 2019 RESULTS - THE VIET NAM POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUS OF 00:00 HOURS ON 1 APRIL 2019 / 77| 75 Table 5.1: Total fertility rate, 2001-2019
Unit: Children per woman
Entire country Urban Rural
2001 2.25 1.86 2.38
2002 2.28 1.93 2.39
2003 2.12 1.70 2.30
2004 2.23 1.87 2.38
2005 2.11 1.73 2.28
2006 2.09 1.72 2.25
2007 2.07 1.70 2.22
2008 2.08 1.83 2.22
2009 2.03 1.81 2.14
2010 2.00 1.77 2.11
2011 1.99 1.70 2.12
2012 2.05 1.80 2.17
2013 2.10 1.86 2.21
2014 2.09 1.85 2.21
2015 2.10 1.82 2.25
2016 2.09 1.86 2.21
2017 2.04 1.77 2.19
2018 2.05 1.75 2.22
2019 2.09 1.83 2.26
Sources:
- 2010-2018: Population Change and Family Planning Surveys in years 2010-2018;
- 2014: the 2014 Intercensal population and housing survey.
The difference in the TFR between urban and rural areas may be due to urban couples having easier access to information sources, improved awareness of the benefits of families with fewer children, and easier access to health facilities that provide family planning services. In addition, living conditions in urban areas tend to be better than in rural areas, so the rate of infant and child mortality in urban areas was lower than in rural areas, contributing to a reduced need for additional births in urban areas.
In the past few years, the TFR in rural areas has decreased rapidly from 2.38 children per woman in 2001 to 2.26 children per woman in 2019. This figure in urban areas has gone almost unchanged, hovering around 1.80 children per woman for nearly two decades. There has been a clear positive change in perceptions around the benefits of having fewer children among rural women.
7876 | / RESULTS - THE VIET NAM POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUS OF 00:00 HOURS ON 1 APRIL 2019RESULTS - THE VIET NAM POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUS OF 00:00 HOURS ON 1 APRIL 2019 Holding the fertility rate stable below replacement levels for over a decade (with the exception of 2013 and 2015 that had a TFR of 2.10 children per woman, exactly at replacement levels) affirms the success of the Population and Family Planning Program, the Population and Development Program, and many community health care programs and campaigns, including reproductive health efforts in rural areas. However, fertility in rural areas was still much higher than in urban areas and higher than replacement fertility, suggesting it will be necessary to continue promoting policies on reproductive health care and family planning in combination with expanded investments in socio-economic infrastructure contributing to the development of rural areas.
Northern midlands and mountain areas, Red River Delta, North Central and Central coastal areas and Central Highlands regions had high fertility rates, above replacement fertility levels. The South East and Mekong River Delta regions had the lowest fertility rates, below replacement levels.
Table 5.2: Total fertility rate by socio-economic region, 2009-2019
Unit: Children per woman 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 ENTIRE COUNTRY 2.03 2.00 1.99 2.05 2.10 2.09 2.10 2.09 2.04 2.05 2.09 Northern midlands and
mountain areas 2.24 2.22 2.21 2.31 2.18 2.56 2.69 2.63 2.53 2.48 2.43 Red River Delta 2.11 2.04 2.06 2.11 2.11 2.30 2.23 2.23 2.16 2.29 2.35 North Central and Central
coastal areas 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.32 2.37 2.31 2.34 2.37 2.31 2.30 2.32 Central Highlands 2.65 2.63 2.58 2.43 2.49 2.30 2.26 2.37 2.29 2.32 2.43
South East 1.69 1.68 1.59 1.57 1.83 1.56 1.63 1.46 1.55 1.50 1.56
Mekong River Delta 1.84 1.80 1.80 1.92 1.92 1.84 1.76 1.84 1.74 1.74 1.80 Sources:
- 2010-2018: Population Change and Family Planning Surveys in years 2010-2018;
- 2014: the 2014 Intercensal population and housing survey.
Ho Chi Minh City had the lowest TFR in the country (1.39 children per woman) and Ha Tinh province had the highest TFR in the country (2.83 children per woman). The provinces were divided into three groups of TFRs: Group 1 had below replacement fertility (TFR less than 2.1 children per woman), Group 2 had between replacement fertility and below high fertility (TFR of 2.1 children per woman to less than 2.5 children per woman), and Group 3 had high fertility (TFR of 2.5 children or more per woman). The results denoted 22 localities belonging to Group 1 (including Da Nang, Ho Chi Minh City, and Can Tho), 29 localities in Group 2 (including Ha Noi and Hai Phong), and 12 provinces in Group 3.
RESULTS - THE VIET NAM POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUS OF 00:00 HOURS ON 1 APRIL 2019 RESULTS - THE VIET NAM POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUS OF 00:00 HOURS ON 1 APRIL 2019 / 79| 77 Table 5.3: Total fertility rate by localities
Unit: Children per woman TFR below 2.1 TFR of 2.1 to less than 2.5 TFR of 2.5 or more
Ho Chi Minh City 1.39 Phu Yen 2.11 Tuyen Quang 2.51
Tay Ninh 1.53 Lang Son 2.13 Bac Ninh 2.53
Binh Duong 1.54 Quang Ngai 2.13 Thanh Hoa 2.54
Bac Lieu 1.61 Thai Nguyen 2.14 Phu Tho 2.57
Can Tho 1.66 Bac Kan 2.14 Lai Chau 2.68
Khanh Hoa 1.77 Binh Dinh 2.20 Dak Nong 2.68
Dong Thap 1.78 Lam Dong 2.20 Dien Bien 2.72
Soc Trang 1.79 Hai Phong 2.20 Kon Tum 2.74
Ca Mau 1.80 Quang Ninh 2.24 Nam Dinh 2.74
Long An 1.80 Ha Noi 2.24 Yen Bai 2.74
Vinh Long 1.81 Binh Phuoc 2.27 Nghe An 2.75
Tien Giang 1.82 Quang Nam 2.27 Ha Tinh 2.83
Hau Giang 1.83 Bac Giang 2.31
Kien Giang 1.85 Thua Thien Hue 2.34
An Giang 1.85 Hoa Binh 2.34
Ben Tre 1.86 Dak Lak 2.37
Ba Ria-Vung Tau 1.87 Vinh Phuc 2.39
Da Nang 1.88 Hung Yen 2.40
Dong Nai 1.90 Cao Bang 2.43
Binh Thuan 1.91 Quang Binh 2.43
Tra Vinh 1.96 Thai Binh 2.43
Ninh Thuan 2.09 Son La 2.44
Lao Cai 2.44
Ha Nam 2.44
Quang Tri 2.45
Ninh Binh 2.46
Ha Giang 2.47
Hai Duong 2.48
Gia Lai 2.49
The number of localities with TFRs higher than replacement levels increased from 29 provinces in 2009 to 41 provinces in 2019. Ho Chi Minh City and most provinces in the South East and the Mekong River Delta regions had TFR below replacement levels with the exception of Binh Phuoc with 2.27 children per woman.
Among ethnic groups, the Chinese ethnic group had the lowest fertility rate (1.53 children per woman) and 21 ethnic groups had a TFR in Group 3. Three ethnic groups had very high fertility with TFRs above 3.5 children per woman: Xo Dang, Bru Van Kieu, and Mong with TFRs of 3.57, 3.64, and 3.68 children per woman, respectively.
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Women with university educations had the lowest TFR (1.85 children per woman), followed by women with college educations (1.91 children per woman). Women who had never attended school had a relatively high TFR (2.59 children per woman) and women with just primary education had the highest TFR (3.71 children per woman).
Figure 5.2: Total fertility rate by living standard quintile
Unit: Children per woman
The 2019 Population and Housing Census collected information on the quality of housing, amenities, and living facilities of each citizen to assess population housing and living conditions. This information was used in multivariate correlation analysis models to estimate a wealth index to assess the wealth and poverty of households, also known as the living standard by the quintile.
Accordingly, the total number of households nationwide was divided into 5 groups, with the proportion of households in each group approximately equaling 20% of the total population with different levels of housing and living conditions, including: 20% of the richest population (with the best housing and living conditions), 20% of the rich population (with relatively good housing and living conditions), 20% of the population with a median living standard (with reasonable housing conditions and activities), 20% of the poor population (with poor housing and living conditions), and 20% of the poorest population (with the worst housing and living conditions). People living in the same household were regarded the same in terms of wealth and poverty.
Women in the "Richest" group had the lowest fertility rate with 2.00 children per woman.
Women in the "Rich", "Medium", and "Poor" groups had an average of 2 children. Women in the
"Poorest" group had the highest fertility rates with a TFR of 2.40 children per woman, much higher than replacement levels. More investment may be needed to improve the quality of reproductive health care and family planning services for women in the "Poorest" group.
The orientation "shifting the focus of population policy from family planning to population and development" as stated in Resolution No. 21-NQ/TW dated 25 October 2017 of the 6th Conference, Session XII, the Central Party Committee on population work in the new context has been gradually implemented, ensuring the achievement of the set goals. Although Viet Nam’s fertility is below
2.40
2.03 2.03 2.07
2.00
1.80 1.90 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.50
Poorest Poor Medium Rich Richest
2.40
2.03 2.03 2.07
2.00
1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5
Poorest Poor Medium Rich Richest
RESULTS - THE VIET NAM POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUS OF 00:00 HOURS ON 1 APRIL 2019 RESULTS - THE VIET NAM POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUS OF 00:00 HOURS ON 1 APRIL 2019 / 81| 79 replacement fertility levels, there are significant differences between localities, ethnic groups, education and training levels, and living standard quintiles of women. This indicates that a great deal of communication efforts is needed to reduce the gaps in TFRs between urban and rural areas, between regions and between different population groups.