KEY FINDINGS
CHAPTER 4: POPULATION SIZE AND STRUCTURE
4.6. Population structure by age group and sex
The aging index increased, but Viet Nam is still in a demographic window of opportunity; one dependent person is "supported" by two working-age persons.
The population structure by age group and sex reflects the overall picture of fertility, mortality and population growth rate of a population at a given time, and is described by the population pyramid. The population pyramid is a common tool used to express the combination of the age and sex structure of the population in a geometric form (typically a pyramid). The population pyramid is divided into two parts with a vertical line segregating the female population to the right and the male population to the left.
The shape of the population pyramid provides general information about the age and sex structure of the population at the time of identification and is also used to assess population structure changes over years; the width of the youngest age group (the bottom of the pyramid) reflects the increase or decrease in fertility compared to previous years, while the width of the highest age group (the top of the pyramid) reflects changes or trends in population aging.
Figure 4.6: Viet Nam population pyramid, 2009-2019
2009 2019
The minimal differences between the bottom of the pyramid in 2019 and 2009 suggests that fertility has remained stable. In the middle of the 2019 pyramid, the 15-19 and 20-24 age group
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79
Female 80+
8 6 4 2 0 0 2 4 6 8
Percent
Male Male
8 6 4 2 0 0 2 4 6 8
Percent
Female
8
2009 2019
0-4 5-9 10-14
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+
0-4 5-9 10-14
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+
Female Female
0 2 4 6 8
Percent
Male
Percent
Male
6 4 2 0 8 6 4 2 0 0 2 4 6 8
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appear to have narrowed since 2009, or that the proportion of young Vietnamese population has decreased, mainly due to the low fertility rate 15-20 years ago combined with mortality. The 25-64 age groups in 2019 saw little change from the 2009 pyramid, and Viet Nam continues to maintain an abundant working-age force, a major advantage in economic development.
4.6.1. Demographic window of opportunity
According to several United Nations’ studies, the population structure of a country is considered to be in a demographic window of opportunity when the population of children (0-14 years old) accounts for a proportion of less than 30% of the total population and older demographics (65 years and older) constitute a proportion of less than 15%.
The results of the 2019 Census showed that the proportion of the population aged 15-64 accounted for 68.0% of the total population (a decline of 1.1 percentage points compared to 2009), and the proportion of the population under 15 years old and 65 years and older represented 24.3% and 7.7%, respectively. Thus, Viet Nam continues to be in a demographic window of opportunity with one dependent person per two persons in working-age groups. Viet Nam is expected to exit this demographic window of opportunity by 2040.
Table 4.7: Proportion of population by age group, 1999-2019
Unit: %
1999 2009 2019
Proportion of population under 15 years old 33.1 24.5 24.3
Proportion of population aged 15-64 61.1 69.1 68.0
Proportion of population aged 65 years and older 5.8 6.4 7.7
A demographic window of opportunity brings both opportunities and challenges for the country's development. Many countries have taken advantage of this opportunity to break through and grow rapidly, but many have missed the window and sunk deep into the "middle income trap".
Viet Nam formed and implemented economic policies at the outset of the demographic window of opportunity, focusing on policies for human resources development and labor contributions to fortify business production. As a result, the economic growth rate soared, reaching an average of 6.21% per year from 2011-201814. However, the per capita income of Viet Nam is still at the level of low-middle-income countries. One reason for this is that the economy, despite taking advantage of abundant labor resources, mainly relies on exploiting cheap and simple labor; employment quality continues to be in the low-value chain, with more than half of jobs only requiring middle skills, 33.2% are low-skilled jobs, and just 11.2% are high-skilled jobs.
In comparison, high-skilled jobs in developed countries in the world account for an average of 20%15. In addition, the majority of Vietnamese workers are engaged in informal jobs with low
14Data compiled based on Statistical Yearbook.
15 Decent work and Sustainable Development Goals in Viet Nam at: https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---asia/---ro-bangkok/---ilo-hanoi/documents/publication/wcms_730825.pdf
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Although the demographic window of opportunity offered many advantages and strengths, it also posed a number of difficulties and challenges that need to be addressed. In addition to the issues around improving the skill level of workers toward enhancing human resource quality to meet the needs of the labor market, especially in the context of the 4.0 technology revolution, underemployment, social order and social security should be a focus going forward.
4.6.2. Dependency ratio
Dependency ratios are used to assess the burden of the working-age population. This indicator reflects the impact of fertility and mortality on the age structure and labor force. The overall dependency ratio denotes the percentage of the population under 15 years old and over 65 years per 100 persons aged 15-64. Specifically, the child dependency ratio represents the rate of the population under 15 years old per 100 persons aged 15-64 and the dependency ratio of the elderly indicates the percentage of the population aged 65 years and older per 100 people in the 15-64 age group.
The results of the 2019 Census showed that, in the past 10 years, the dependency ratio in Viet Nam increased by 2.4 percentage points, mainly due to an increase in the population aged 65 and over.
Table 4.8: Dependency ratio, 1999-2019
Unit: %
1999 2009 2019
Child dependency ratio (0-14) 54.2 35.4 35.7
Elderly dependency ratio (65+) 9.4 9.3 11.3
Overall dependency ratio 63.6 44.7 47.1
The dependency ratio and the proportion of the population aged 15-64 affect the demographic window of opportunity. Therefore, in order to ensure fertility replacement levels17 and maintain the structure of the working-age population, it is necessary to advocate and issue policies on maintaining national and regional fertility replacement levels.
4.6.3. Population aging
Population aging reflects the transition of population structure towards increasing the proportion of the elderly population and is reflected in the aging index. In the coverage of this report, the aging index is the ratio of the population aged 60 and older compared to the population below 15 years old.
16 Data from the Labor Force Survey Q.I - 2019
17 “Replacement level fertility” is the average number of children born per woman at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next, without migration. This rate is corresponding to the total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman.
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In Viet Nam, the aging index has increased quickly in the past two decades: the aging index in 2019 was 48.8%, a 13.3 percentage point growth compared to 2009 and more than double the rate in 1999. This significant growth is due to changes in the age structure of the population, with a reduction in the proportion of children under 15 years old and an increase in the proportion of the population aged 60 and over. The aging index is expected to continuously increase in the coming years.
Table 4.9: Aging index by socio-economic region
Unit: %
Total Urban Rural
ENTIRE COUNTRY 48.8 50.8 47.9
Northern midlands and mountain areas 36.3 49.1 33.7
Red River Delta 57.4 56.4 58.0
North Central and Central coastal areas 52.2 50.8 52.7
Central Highlands 28.1 36.1 25.4
South East 42.8 45.3 39.2
Mekong River Delta 58.5 60.3 57.9
The Mekong River Delta and the Red River Delta regions had the highest aging index in the country with 58.5% and 57.4%, respectively. The Central Highlands region had the lowest aging index with 28.1%.
Population aging has become a central topic of interest in Viet Nam and around the world.
Population aging will affect most aspects of life, including labor markets, finance, and demand for goods, services, education, social security, and health care for the elderly.
In Viet Nam, population aging poses a challenge, given the rapid aging rate in the context of a low-middle-income country. Therefore, policies are needed to respond to population aging, as stated in the objective of Resolution No. 21-NQ/TW dated 25 October 2017 at the 6th Central Conference of the 12th tenure of the Central Party Committee on population work in the new context. In particular, improving health care for older persons, the social security system, and labor policies for older persons contribute to enhancing living standards, the production of goods and services and increasing production size. In the context of Viet Nam's regulations on working ages18, the proportion of persons over the working age minimum who are engaged in business production activities still accounts for a relatively high rate (8.2% of the population aged 15 and
18 Working age population as stipulated in the Labor Law in Viet Nam are those who fully aged 15-60 years old for males and 15-55 years old for females.
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