결론

▶ 복지예산의 경우, 스위스보다 GDP 대비 복지지출 비중이 크지만 성과는 낮아 복 지분야도 비효율적으로 운용되는 분야로 평가됨.

▪ 복지분야는 성과의 비효율성보다 지출의 비효율성이 상대적으로 큰 것으로 평가되고 있어 복지지출의 낭비적 요인을 제거하는데 정책적 초점을 맞춰야 함.

▪ 2015년 복지예산(115.7조 원)을 기준으로 할 때 정책 1을 선택하면 약 18.2조 원, 정 책 3을 선택하면 약 16.5조 원을 줄여야 함.

▪ 스위스를 벤치마크 할 경우 정책 1보다 예산을 적게 줄여도 되지만 성과의 향상정도 는 정책 2보다 상대적으로 적을 전망

▶ 투입기준과 산출기준 모두 한국은 경제활동 관련 지출이 효율적으로 운용되고 있 는 것으로 평가하고 있음.

▶ 재정준칙을 확립하여 작은 정부를 지향하고 규제개혁, 행정의 투명성 향상, 재산 권 보호 수준 강화, 행정의 투명성을 강화하고, 공무원의 경쟁력을 높이는 한편 개방화 확대 등을 통해 재정지출 최소화와 재정 성과 극대화를 모색해야 함.

▶ 본 연구결과는 분석대상 국가 범위, 성과지표 데이터의 범위, 가외치(outlier)의 제거 여부 등에 따라 민감하게 반응할 수 있음.

▪ 예를 들어 OECD 34개 국가에 신흥국가를 포함할 경우 본 연구에서 추정한 효율점수

는 일반적으로 과소 추정되었을 가능성이 높음.

참 고 문 헌

[국내문헌]

기획재정부, “박근혜정부 국정과제 이행을 위한 재정지원 실천계획(공약가계부) 발표”, 보도자료, 2013.5.31

조경엽 ․ 유진성, “박근혜정부 복지정책의 비용추정 및 경제적 효과 분석”, 연구보고서 2013-03, 한국경제연구원, 2013

[해외문헌]

Afonso, Aubyn, and Tanzi, “Public Sector Efficiency: Evidence for new EU member states and emerging markets”, Working paper series NO. 581, January 2006

Aigner et al, “Formulation and estimation of stochastic frontier production function models”, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 6, issue 1, pp. 21-37, 1977

Banker et al, “Some Models for Estimating Technical and Scale Inefficiencies in DEA”, Management Science, Vol. 30, pp. 1078-1092, 1984

Chames et al, “Measuring the Efficiency of Decision Making Units”, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 2, pp. 429-444, 1978

Cooper et al, “Data Envelopment Analysis”, 2006

Mandi, Dierx, and Ilzkovitz, “The effectiveness and efficiency of public spending”, European Economy, Economic Papers 301, February 2008

IMD, “World Competitiveness Yearbook 2014”, 2015 IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2015 OECD, “Economic Outlook 2015”, 2015

_____, “Education at a Glance 2014”, 2014

_____, “Income Distribution and Poverty 2013”, 2013 _____, “National Accounts at a Glance 2015”, 2015 _____, “Social Expenditure 2015”, 2015

_____, Labour Force Statistics 2014, 2014

_____, Production Market Regulation Statistics: Barriers to entrepreneurship 2013, 2013

_____, Production Market Regulation Statistics: Involvement in business operations 2013, 2013 World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2015

World Economic Forum, “The Global Competitiveness Report”, 2001-2015

　Opportunity indicatorsStandard "Musgravian" indicators 　AdministrativeEducationHealthPublic InfrastructureDistribu- tionStabilityEocnomic performance 　Corrup- tionRed tape Quality of judiciary

Shadow Economy Quality of math and science education

Secondary school enrolment

Life expect- ancy

Infant survival Communica- tions and transport Quality

Gini coeffici- entInflationCoef.of variation of GDP GDP growthUnemp- loyment

Per capital GDP 　⑴⑵⑶⑷⑸⑹⑺⑻⑼⑽⑾⑿⒀⒁⒂ Australia5.12.85.913.54.6868299.75.167.42.80.302.85.143,902 Austria4.63.45.29.54.6898199.76.272.42.11.611.34.646,165 Belgium5.12.65.721.36.0968099.65.873.22.11.441.17.942,725 Canada5.33.86.215.35.1948199.55.668.51.80.921.97.144,089 Chile4.84.05.218.53.5878099.34.749.72.80.544.38.022,333 Czech Republic2.82.63.917.04.1877899.75.074.42.31.682.26.830,445 Denmark5.83.46.516.94.5928099.75.875.11.95.960.45.744,863 Estonia4.74.35.729.55.1897699.75.266.24.02.882.79.526,355 Finland6.24.56.617.06.3948199.86.473.81.95.380.77.839,754 France4.52.85.014.75.2978299.66.169.41.51.820.99.038,851 Germany5.23.65.915.35.1878199.76.071.11.62.141.37.845,616 Greece3.02.43.726.54.3868199.64.666.02.22.51-1.913.826,099 Hungary3.02.64.023.74.3927599.55.071.26.13.470.99.024,498 Iceland5.13.85.515.04.7858399.86.274.34.21.922.24.743,393 Ireland5.54.06.315.45.0998199.75.169.61.52.841.49.347,804 Israel4.02.95.820.74.0988299.74.464.02.20.364.18.933,072 Italy2.81.93.526.84.5918299.74.667.31.95.30-0.48.334,758 Japan5.43.56.210.35.1998399.86.266.40.24.400.64.436,426 Korea3.43.23.525.64.7968199.75.569.82.70.463.73.434,356 Luxembourg5.94.36.09.44.8868299.85.969.82.21.472.35.091,048

[부표 1] 성과지표를 위한 입력 데이터

[부 록 ]

Mexico2.72.93.228.82.7687798.74.254.34.21.122.54.417,167 Netherlands5.73.96.113.05.4928199.76.372.21.82.231.15.247,131 New Zealand6.34.16.712.05.3978199.55.166.72.50.672.05.235,217 Norway6.03.86.318.04.5958199.85.374.71.91.031.43.464,893 Poland3.62.94.126.04.4927799.54.070.22.50.453.911.524,882 Portugal4.13.04.523.04.5958099.76.066.21.88.42-0.310.228,327 Slovak Republic2.52.42.316.84.0757699.44.275.02.61.143.913.827,585 Slovenia3.22.53.424.75.2948099.85.175.02.23.341.36.929,917 Spain3.12.83.222.23.9968299.65.966.52.33.970.715.833,763 Sweden5.54.05.717.94.4958299.85.772.60.51.781.77.545,144 Switzerland5.84.26.18.15.9818399.64.071.51.20.842.13.256,940 Turkey3.53.53.129.13.5887598.35.159.88.61.014.39.719,250 United Kingdom5.43.96.212.24.3878199.65.364.92.31.781.26.554,629 United States4.33.45.18.44.4987999.45.859.92.71.141.66.939,137 Average4.53.35.118.34.6918099.65.368.52.52.251.87.538,839 small4.233.424.6118.864.3686.7079.2099.365.0064.003.161.382.836.8532,345 medium4.533.315.1518.224.6592.1880.4799.665.3469.802.412.471.607.7441,970 big4.963.315.4717.695.0592.7181.0099.695.8071.791.742.930.628.0440,514 ⑴Ethics and Corruption index(1 to 7 best), 2014 ⑵Burden of government regulation index(1 to 7 not burdensome), 2014 ⑶Judicial independent index(1 to 7 entirely independent), 2014 ⑷Friedrich Schneider(2012), % of GDP ⑸Quality of math and science education index(1 to 7 excellent), 2014 ⑹Secondary school enrolment ratio(%, net), 2013 or latest ⑺Life expectancy at birth, 2013 ⑻Infant survival rate, per 100 live births, 2013 ⑼Public communications and transport quality(1 to 7 extensive and efficient) ⑽Gini coefficient(100-Gini), 2014 or latest year ⑾Average inflation, 2005-2014 ⑿Coefficient of variation of average GDP growth rate, 2005-2014 ⒀Average GDP growth rate, 2005-2014 ⒁Average unemployment, 2004-2013 ⒂Per capital GDP, PPP USD, 2013 or 2014

변 수 자 료 계 열

부 패

WEF, Global Competitiveness Report

2014-2015

Ethics and Corruption index(1 to 7 best), 2014

관 료 주 의 Burden of government regulation index(1 to 7

not burdensome), 2014

사 법 의 질 Judicial independent index(1 to 7 entirely independent), 2014

지 하 경 제 Friedrich Schneider(2012) % of GDP, Inverse 수 학 · 과 학

교 육 의 질

WEF, Global Competitiveness Report

2014-2015

Quality of math and science education index(1 to 7 excellent), 2014

중·고등학교

진 학 WB, World Development Indicators 2015

Secondary school enrolment ratio(%, net), 2013 or latest

수 명 Life expectancy at birth, 2013

유 아 사 망 률 Infant survival rate, per 100 live births, 2013 수송·통신의 질

WEF, Global Competitiveness Report

2014-2015

Public communications and transport quality(1 to 7 extensive and efficient)

지 니 계 수 OECD, Income Distribution

and Poverty 2013 Gini coefficient(100-Gini), 2014 or latest year 인 플 레 이 션 WB, World Development

Indicators 2015 Average inflation, 05-14, Inverse 국 내 총 생 산

변 동 계 수 OECD, Economic Outlook 2015

Coefficient of variation of average GDP growth rate, 05-14, Inverse

국 내 총 생 산

성 장 률 Average GDP growth rate, 05-14

실 업 률 IMF, World Economic

Outlook 2014 Average unemployment, 04-13, Inverse

1 인 당

국 내 총 생 산 WB, World Development

Indicators 2015 Per capital GDP, PPP USD, 2013 or 2014

총 지 출

OECD, National Accounts at a Glance 2015

*Chile: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, April

2015

Total expenditure of general government(% of GDP) 2013 or latest, 04-13 Average 10 years

상품·서비스

WB, World Development Indicators 2015

General government final consumption expenditure(% of GDP) 2014 or latest, 04-13

Average 10 years

교 육 Public spending on education(% of GNI) 2014 or

latest, 02-11 Average 10 years 보 건 OECD, Social Expenditure

2015

Public expenditure on health(% of GDP) 2011, 02-11 Average 10 years

사 회 이 전

OECD, National Accounts at a Glance 2015

Social transfers in kind(% of GDP) 2013, 04-13 Average 10 years

공 공 투 자

Gross fixes capital formation at current prices;

general government(% of GDP), 2013, 04-13 Average 10 years

[부표 2] 변수에 대한 설명과 출처