A. Outlook on coal demand
Coal demand is expected to post a year-on-year rise of 3.0% in 2011 and 2.0% in 2012 to reach 122,904 thousand tons and 125,374 thousand tons, respectively, owing to base effects from high growth witnessed in the previous year.
Notes: Values in parentheses refer to the year-on-year growth rate (%); p refers to tentative figures; e refers to forecasts.
Outlook on coal and other energy demand
8
(Unit: 1,000 tons)
Category 2011 2012
1/4p 2/4p 3/4p 4/4e Annual (e) First half of
the year (e) Second half
of the year (e) Annual (e)
Anthracite 2,806 2,289 2,708 3,411 11,212 5,789 6,282 12,071
(10.5) (-7.1) (19.6) (20.3) (11.0) (13.6) (2.7) (7.7)
Residential/ 550 172 225 840 1,787 746 1,036 1,781
commercial (-2.3) (-27.1) (3.2) (-0.2) (-3.9) (3.3) (-2.8) (-0.3)
Industrial 2,117 1,988 2,035 2,353 8,783 4,785 4,894 9,679
(20.4) (-2.8) (11.0) (33.1) (18.6) (16.6) (4.6) (10.2)
Power 139 129 156 218 642 258 353 611
generation (-36.5) (-29.1) (-26.4) (-3.5) (-23.5) (-3.7) (-5.6) (-4.8)
Bituminous 27,615 26,483 29,504 28,089 111,691 54,984 58,319 113,303
coal total (-1.8) (4.1) (5.3) (1.6) (2.3) (1.6) (1.3) (1.4)
steel 6,240 6,491 6,378 6,533 25,642 13,340 13,599 26,939
(-15.1) (5.1) (9.8) (6.0) (0.5) (4.8) (5.3) (5.1)
cement 1,052 1,423 1,228 1,325 5,028 2,559 2,587 5,147
(12.8) (8.0) (14.0) (7.1) (10.2) (3.4) (1.4) (2.4)
other 689 605 570 646 2,510 1,269 1,219 2,488
industries (3.6) (2.2) (1.9) (-2.4) (1.3) (-2.0) (0.3) (-0.9)
power 19,634 17,964 21,328 19,586 78,512 37,816 40,914 78,730
generation (2.4) (3.5) (3.7) (0.0) (2.4) (0.6) (0.0) (0.3)
Total Coal 30,421 28,772 32,211 31,500 122,904 60,773 64,602 125,374
(-0.8) (3.1) (6.4) (3.3) (3.0) (2.7) (1.4) (2.0)
<TableⅢ-22> Outlook on coal demand
Bituminous coal consumption is forecast to record a year-on-year increase of 2.3% in 2011 and 1.4% in 2012 to reach 111,691 thousand tons and 113,303 thousand tons, respectively. This is attributable to a slowdown in the rise in bituminous coal demand for steel making and a slowdown in demand for power generation.
- Bituminous coal demand for steel making is forecast to post a year-on-year rise of 0.5% in 2011 and 5.1% in 2012 to reach 25,642 thousand tons and 26,939 thousand tons, respectively, despite the launch of operation of Hyundai Steel Blast Furnace #2.
This is attributable to the expected slowdown in demand in major steel-demand industries and base effects from the previous year.
- Bituminous coal consumption in the cement industry indicated a rapid decrease during the last two years. It recorded high growth of 12.3% from January through October 2011 due to base effects. It is forecast to post a year-on-year rise of 10.2% in 2011, and 2.4% in 2012 owing to an economic decline.
- Since no new coal-based thermal power plants were built, bituminous coal demand for power generation will likely maintain the level witnessed in the previous year, when the maximum operation rate was recorded.
Anthracite consumption is expected to rise 11.0% in 2011 and 7.7% in 2012 to reach 11,212 thousand tons and 12,071 thousand tons, respectively, despite a drop in consumption for residential/commercial use and power generation. This is owing to a rapid increase in anthracite consumption for industrial use.
With regards to coal consumption trends by usage, coal consumption for power generation indicated rapid growth up to 2010 and led overall coal consumption. It is forecast to rise 2.1% in 2011 and maintain the consumption level witnessed in 2011 in 2012 as well.
- Coal consumption for industrial use is repeatedly going up and down according to the economic flow. In contrast, coal consumption for power generation has been steadily rising owing to a continued increase in electricity demand.
B. Outlook on thermal energy, new & renewable energy, and other energy
In 2011 and 2012, thermal energy demand is expected to record a year-on-year increase of 3.9% and 1.5%, respectively, based on forecasts on the construction business in the private sector and assuming that average year temperatures will be recorded.
The thermal energy charge31)was raised 6.9% in September 2011 and was raised again by 4.9% in December, but this is expected to have not much influence.
- Despite the price increase on two occasions, thermal energy still remains affordable compared to other sources of energy. In addition, community energy supply systems will be established for residential districts. For this reason, thermal energy demand is expected to gradually go up.
[FigureⅢ-14] Coal demand trends and forecasts per use
31) Heating price adjustments are made on a quarterly basis in accordance with the fuel adjustment mechanism. Measures were taken to freeze the price (four times) and reduce the price (twice) between November 2009 and September 2011.
Notes: 1) Values in parentheses refer to the year-on-year growth rate (%); p refers to tentative figures; e refers to forecasts.
2) New & renewable energy/Other energy includes the amount consumed for transport.
In 2011 and 2012, new & renewable energy and other energy demand is expected to record a year-on-year rise of 4.9% and 6.0%, respectively.
New & renewable energy and other energy demand is forecast to increase mainly in the public sector and industrial sector during the forecast period, as a result of implementation of relevant government policies.
2012
1/4p 2/4p 3/4p 4/4e Annual (e) First half of
the year (e) Second half of
the year (e) Annual (e) Quarter 2011
(Unit: 1,000 TOE)
Thermal 835 243 110 597 1,785 1,086 725 1,811
energy (3.8) (-4.3) (18.5) (5.4) (3.9) (0.7) (2.6) (1.5)
New &
renewable 1,368 1,368 1,307 1,566 5,609 2,905 3,043 5,947
energy/Other (4.5) (5.0) (-0.7) (10.4) (4.9) (6.2) (5.9) (6.0)
energy
<TableⅢ-23> Outlook on thermal energy, new & renewable energy, and other energy demand
[FigureⅢ-15] Thermal energy demand trends and outlook
The industrial sector is forecast to actively move forward with increasing use of new &
renewable energy and other energy based on use of waste gas resources, etc. in response to the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) planned for adoption in 2012.
[FigureⅢ-16] Trends and outlook on new & renewable energy and other energy demand
