Final energy demand is forecast to record a year-on-year increase of 3.1% in 2011 and 2.9% in 2012.
Energy consumption soared in all demand sectors in 2010. However, the level of consumption increase is expected to slow down from 2011 to 2012 due to base effects, a slowdown in economic growth, and continued high oil prices.
- In 2011, consumption in the industrial sector is expected to record relatively high growth of 4.6%, but consumption in the residential/commercial/public sector and transport sector is forecast to go up only by a small extent.
- In 2012, the level of increase in demand in the industrial sector is expected to go down compared to the previous year as a result of a slowdown in the level of increase in demand for naphtha and electricity. The level of increase in demand in the residential/commercial/public sector is also forecast to be more gradual.
Energy demand in the industrial sector is expected to indicate sound growth, mainly for major energy sources, including electricity, energy for raw material use, and town gas.
This is despite base effects from a substantial rise in consumption (7.9%) in 2010.
Energy demand in the transport sector slowed down in 2011 due to the slowdown in the economy and continued high oil prices. It is forecast to record a low increase rate of less than 1% in 2012.
Energy demand in the residential/commercial/public sector is forecast to indicate steady growth of 1.6% in 2011 and 1.2% in 2012, attributable to a slowdown in the level of increase in income levels in case abnormal climate conditions do not arise.
Outlook on final energy demand
4
Category 2011 2012 1/4p 2/4p 3/4p 4/4e Annual (e) First half of
the year (e) Second half
of the year (e) Annual (e)
29.7 29.0 30.1 31.6 120.5 61.8 63.7 125.4
(2.4) (1.8) (8.4) (6.0) (4.6) (5.1) (3.2) (4.1)
14.0 13.7 14.0 15.6 57.3 29.6 30.5 60.2
(3.9) (0.4) (7.2) (6.8) (4.6) (6.8) (3.2) (4.9)
8.8 8.7 9.8 9.7 37.0 17.8 19.6 37.3
(2.8) (-5.8) (2.6) (1.7) (0.3) (1.2) (0.4) (0.8)
15.3 8.4 7.2 11.5 42.4 24.0 19.0 42.9
(5.3) (-2.7) (2.0) (0.1) (1.6) (1.1) (1.3) (1.2)
53.8 46.2 47.0 52.9 199.9 103.5 102.2 205.7
(3.3) (-0.6) (6.1) (3.8) (3.1) (3.5) (2.3) (2.9)
38.1 30.9 31.0 36.9 136.8 71.4 69.1 140.4
(4.2) (-2.3) (4.5) (3.3) (2.5) (4.7) (5.7) (2.7)
8.1 4.5 3.0 5.9 21.5 13.4 9.3 22.6
(6.2) (5.5) (14.8) (8.2) (7.7) (5.9) (3.9) (5.1)
194.7 178.1 195.7 206.0 774.4 380.2 401.1 781.3
(3.1) (-5.1) (4.8) (0.8) (0.9) (2.0) (-0.1) (0.9)
106.0 94.2 105.0 116.3 421.5 202.2 216.5 418.7
(-1.5) (-10.8) (1.3) (-0.2) (-3.2) (1.0) (8.7) (-0.7)
121.4 109.0 112.5 113.7 456.6 237.9 239.3 477.3
(7.9) (5.1) (3.2) (4.4) (5.2) (3.3) (5.8) (4.5)
10.6 10.7 10.7 11.7 43.7 22.7 23.3 46.0
(-5.5) (3.0) (13.0) (9.6) (4.6) (6.4) (4.1) (5.2)
4.4 4.2 4.3 5.2 18.1 9.4 9.7 19.1
(12.5) (-0.1) (17.9) (14.5) (11.0) (8.9) (2.3) (5.5)
2,203 1,612 1,417 2,163 7,395 3,991 3,768 7,758
(4.2) (3.6) (0.6) (9.0) (4.7) (4.6) (5.2) (4.9)
<TableⅢ-15> Outlook on final energy demand
Industry (Million TOE) -Excluding for raw materials Transport (Million TOE)
Residential /commercial /public (Million TOE)
Total Million TOE
Total -Excluding for raw materials Town gas (Billion m3)
Oil (Million bbl) -Excluding naphtha Electricity
(TWh) Coal (Million ton) --Excluding coking coal Thermal and
other (Thousand TOE)
Final energy consumption structure by sector
The share of energy consumption taken up by the industrial sector remained at around 55% up until 2005, but continued to rise afterwards and will likely reach 61% in 2012.
- The increase in the share taken up by the industrial sector is a result of steady growth of industries that consume large amounts of energy such as the steel and petrochemical industries, as well as sharp growth in the fabricated metal industry, which consumes a great amount of electricity.
The share of consumption occupied by the transport sector stood at 21.0% in 2006 but continued to decrease afterwards. It is expected to go down to 18.1% in 2012.
- The drop in the share of consumption occupied by the transport sector is the result of a substantial slowdown in the rate of increase in petroleum product consumption for transport, against the backdrop of high international oil prices, which began to soar in 2003.
The share of consumption occupied by the residential/commercial/public sector, where energy is mostly consumed for heating and cooling purposes, tends to go up and down according to temperature fluctuations in the summer and winter.
- The percentage of consumption accounted for by the sector indicated a steady downward trend in tandem with strong energy consumption by the industrial sector since 2005. This trend is forecast to continue during the forecast period.
[FigureⅢ-6] Share of final energy demand occupied by each sector
With regards to final energy demand by energy source, the level of increase recorded by major energy sources in 2012 will likely maintain the 2011 level or slightly slow down.
Town gas for industrial use is forecast to lead an overall rise in demand. The demand increase rate is forecast to stand at 7.7% in 2011 and 5.1% in 2012.
- Demand for industrial use will likely indicate high growth of 11.9% in 2011. The level of increase is expected to somewhat slow down to between 9 and 10% in 2012.
- Demand for residential/commercial use is forecast to record a comparatively high increase rate of 5.2% in 2011 owing to the cold weather in the first quarter. The level of increase will likely slow down to 2.0% if average year temperatures are recorded in 2012.
Oil demand is forecast to indicate an increase rate of less than 1% in both 2011 and 2012.
- Oil demand for transport is expected to go up 0.1% in 2011 and 0.4% in 2012 despite continued high oil prices. This is attributable to a steady rise in automobile sales, a rise in fuel demand for road freight since the second half of 2011, and an increase in international transport.
- Oil demand in the industrial sector is forecast to go up 2.2% in 2011 and 2.0% in 2012.
Demand for industrial raw material use is expected to lead a rise in overall demand as it is forecast that there will be an increase in production activities in the petrochemical sector and petroleum refining in 2012 as well.
- By product, demand for naphtha and gasoline is expected to indicate relatively rapid growth. Kerosene and diesel for heating, heavy oil, and LPG are forecast to continue the downward trend that they recorded in 2011 in 2012 as well.
Electricity will likely indicate relatively high growth of 5.2% in 2011 and 4.5% in 2012 resulting from several factors: a rise in industrial production activities, low charge, and increased dissemination of equipment that use electricity.
- In 2011, electricity demand for residential/commercial use is forecast to go up a mere
contrast, demand for residential/commercial use will likely record an increase rate of 3.0%, owing to base effects from sluggish consumption witnessed in the summer of 2011.
Coal consumption in the final sector is forecast to record a year-on-year rise of 4.6% in 2011 owing to a rise in anthracite consumption for industrial use (18.6%). This is despite reduced demand for cement production and a slowdown in bituminous coal demand for steel making as a result of base effects.
- Coal consumption is forecast to record a sound increase rate that is in the low 5% range in 2012 as it is expected that the high growth in anthracite demand for industrial use will continue and coking coal demand will bounce back and slightly go up.
Final energy consumption structure by energy source
Oil’s share of final energy consumption has been continually dropping and will likely go down to 49.7% in 2012.
In contrast, all other energy sources are indicating an upward trend in terms of their share of consumption as a result of the decreased share taken up by oil. In particular, electricity’s share of consumption is rising extremely quickly. Electricity’s share of consumption is expected to reach 20% in 2012.
- A rise in electricity consumption expands energy conversion loss, thus triggering a rapid increase in primary energy supply. Unlike other final energy sources, a rise in electricity consumption incurs additional energy expenses at the national level.
- There is a need to identify various policy measures for efficient consumption of electricity in order to curtail social costs that arise from an unnecessary rise in electricity demand and to stabilize national energy supply and demand.
The share of consumption occupied by town gas is steadily rising in the 2000s as well, owing to a continued expansion in the number of customers and the development of new areas of use such as for transport and cooling.
Forecasts on level of contribution made by each final energy source to primary energy demand Results of analyzing the level of contribution made by demand for each final energy source to the increase in primary energy demand indicate that the level of contribution made by electricity and energy for raw material use (naphtha, coking coal) is absolute.
Electricity, which triggers energy input for power generation in the transformation sector, is forecast to contribute to around half of the amount of primary energy increase in 2012.
- Electrification of energy consumption is the result of convenience in electricity use, increased diversity and propagation of electric equipment, and continuously low electricity charge.
The level of contribution made by energy demand for industrial raw material use is expected to slightly go down from the 2011 level to stand at 25.9% in 2012.
The level of contribution made by town gas to an increase in primary energy demand is expected to be 14.7% in 2012. Final petroleum products for fuel, excluding naphtha, are
[FigureⅢ-7] Share of final energy demand taken up by each energy source
In 2011, oil demand is expected to see a year-on-year increase of a mere 0.4%, attributable to a decline in demand for heating in the residential/commercial sector and in demand for use as fuel in the industrial sector owing to fuel replacement, triggered by continued high oil prices as well as a slowdown in economic activity. In 2012, oil demand is forecast to increase 0.7% to reach 803.5 million barrels, owing to a slowdown in the level of drop in demand for use as fuel in the industrial sector and in the transformation sector.
Oil demand for transport is expected to rise 0.1% in 2011 and 0.4% in 2012, owing to a steady rise in automobile sales despite continued high oil prices, a rise in fuel demand for road freight since the second half of 2011, and a rise in international transport.
Outlook on petroleum product demand
5
[FigureⅢ-8] Forecasts on level of contribution of each energy source to increase in primary energy
