비핵화 (핵물질 생산 프로그램의 동결과 핵시설 및 핵물질 폐기)
- 장부검사 : 신고내용과 실제 운영기록의 일치 여부 검증
• 설계정보 검증 : 보유 시설 신고 사항에 대해 가용한 모든 정보를 통해 검증(서류/현장)
• 계량관리보고 검증 : 핵물질의 생산/사용/보유 등 종합적인 양과 물질수지를 확인 - 비파괴 검증 : 핵무기 및 핵물질의 직접 측정을 통해 신고내용 검증
- 시료분석(공정시료 및 환경시료)
• 공정시료의 총량분석을 통해 신고내용의 정확성 검증
• 환경시료 분석을 통해 미신고 활동의 존재 여부를 검증
비핵화 검증 (신고된 정보에 대한 검증)
장부검사 현장검증 시료분석
• 시료보존, 운반, 수령검사
• 실험실 시료 준비
• 화학분리
• 기기 테스트
• 측정 및 분석
• 데이터 수집 및 보고
• 현장접근
• 건물, 야적지 등 진입
• 기록, 수거, 확인 진행
• 시건, 봉인, 격납 조치
• 시료채취, 운반, 저장 등
• 필요시 실시간 의사소통
• 문제정의
• 데이터 획득 전략
• 데이터 품질 목표
• 시료채취 계획
• 품질보증계획
• 분석절차서
• 검증, 평가, 유효성 확인 계획
계획
현장 분석
- 신고된 정보의 검증 - 분석 결과의 신뢰성 검증
- 대상 정보의 정량화를 통한 사전 검증 계획 수립 지원
- 자원의 효율적 배분 및 최적화
- 시각화(Visualization) 모델을 통한 생소한 시설 및 정보에 대한 친숙화(Familiarization)
Physical Model
비핵화 검증
F
구조
형태
Level Process
In Process Out Process
c_Start Time c_M aterial Amount
c_Process Time i_Level Process
c_Process Rate
1st qt 2nd qt 3rd qt 4th qt
0 1 2 3 kg/da
In Process Out Process
1940년 1월 1 1980년 1월 1 2020년 1월 1 0
10 20 30 40 kg/da
Period_1 Period_2 Period_3 Period_4 Period_5 Period_6
P ro c e s s R a te _ e a c h
1940년 1월 1 1980년 1월 1 2020년 1월 1 0
10 20 30 40 kg/da
P ro c e s s R a te
Operating Time
Time Cycle Operating Period
Start Time
Facility Alive
End Time Periodical Process
2017년 1월 1 2027년 1월 1
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
P e ri o d ic a l P ro c e s s
Out Process Process Rate
Capacity Start Time
In Process
Start Time_M M Start Time_YYYY
Start Time_DD c_Capacity
Identified Sources ORE Discovery Rate M ining Rate
U from the other sources
M illing Rate Waste Rate_M ining
i_Identified Sources
i_ORE
c_Start Time_M ining_YYYY
Export ORE Waste_M illing
c_Start Time_M ining_M M
c_Start Time_M ining_DD Start Time_M ining
c_M ining Capacity
M ining Capacity Unit
M ining Capacity
c_Start Time_Export ORE_YYYY
c_Start Time_Export ORE_M M
c_Start Time_Export ORE_DD
Start Time_Export ORE
c_Export Fraction U Content M illing Efficiency Process Time_M ining
Delayed M ining Rate
M ining Waste i_M ining Waste
M illing Waste Export OREs
i_Export OREs i_M illing Waste
Rate_1
Yellow Cake_Central
- 출처 : David F. Von Hippel. (2019). Methods for Refining Estimates of Cumulative DRPK Uranium Production. Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament.
평산 : 1,500,000t
웅기 : 10,000,000t
평산 : 10,000t/y
웅기 : 19,000t/y
Yellow Cake UF6
U Metal
Delayed Milling Rate Conversion UF6 Enrichment Rate
Conversion U Metal Waste
Rate_Conversion Milling Rate
Process Time_Milling
Start Time Conversion GCR_YYYY
Start Time Conversion GCR_MM
Start Time Conversion GCR_DD
Start Time Conversion IRT_YYYY
Start Time Conversion IRT_MM
Start Time Conversion IRT_DD
Start Time Conversion PWR_YYYY
Start Time Conversion PWR_MM
Start Time Conversion PWR_DD Start Time Conversion
HEU_YYYY
Start Time Conversion HEU_MM
Start Time Conversion HEU_DD
Start Time_GCR
Conversion Start Time_IRT
Conversion Start Time_PWR
Conversion Start Time_HEU
Conversion
Yeild Fraction GCR_Conversion
Yield Fraction IRT_Conversion
Yield Fraction PWR_Conversion
Yield Fraction HEU_Conversion
Feed U
Conversion_GCR Feed U
Conversion_IRT Feed U
Conversion_PWR Feed U Conversion_HEU
Feed U
Conversion_GCR Unit Feed U
Conversion_IRT Unit Feed U
Conversion_PWR Unit Process
Time_Conversion_GC R
Conversion U Metal_Origin
i_Yellow Cake
i_U Metal
Process Time_Conversion Conversion UF6_IRT
Conversion UF6_PWR
Conversion UF6_HEU i_UF6
Conversion Waste i_Conversion Waste
Total Enrichment Rate
Need Conversion Cal
For GCR
For Enrichment
EU_HEU
EU_IRT
EU_PWR Enrichment Rate_HEU
Enrichment Rate_IRT
Enrichment Rate_PWR Conversion UF6
UF6 to EU Conversion UF6 to EU
i_UF6 to EU
Tail Rate
DU
Start Time Enrichment_IRT_YYYY
Start Time Enrichment_IRT_M M
Start Time Enrichment_IRT_DD Start Time
Enrichment_IRT
Start Time Enrichment_PWR_YYY
Y
Start Time Enrichment_PWR_M M
Start Time Enrichment_PWR_DD Start Time
Enrichment_PWR
Feed U Enrichment_HEU
Feed U Enrichment_IRT
Feed U Enrichment_PWR
Start Time_HEU Conversion
Yield Fraction IRT_Enrichemtn
Yield Fraction PWR_Enrichemtn
Feed U Enrichment_PWR Unit
Feed U Enrichment_IRT Unit
Enrichment_IRT
Enrichment_PWR
Process Time_Enrichment Start Time
Enrichment_HEU
Np
Nw SWU Product_8000SWU
Feed_8000SWU Yield Fraction
HEU_Enrichment Need_HEU
Enrichment_HEU i_EU_HEU
i_EU_IRT
i_EU_PWR
i_DU
Enrichment_IRT_Tail
Enrichment_PWR_Tail Total Enrichment Rate
Need Conversion Cal
Cumulative_EU
435.03 kgConversion U M etal
Enrichment Rate_IRT
Enrichment Rate_PWR
Fabrication Feed_GCR
Fabrication Feed_IRT
Fabrication Feed_PWR U M etal Rate
HEU M etal Rate
LEU M etal Rate
i_Fabrication Feed_GCR
i_Fabrication Feed_IRT
i_Fabrication Feed_PWR
Fuel_GCR
Fuel_IRT
Fuel_PWR i_Fuel_GCR
i_Fuel_IRT
i_Fuel_PWR Fabircation Rate_GCR
Fabircation Rate_IRT
Fabircation Rate_PWR
Fabrication Waste Waste Rate_Fab_PWR
Waste Rate_Fab_IRT Waste Rate_Fab_GCR
i_Fabrication Waste
Start Time Fabrication IRT_YYYY
Start Time Fabrication IRT_M M
Start Time Fabrication IRT_DD Start Time_IRT
Fabrication
Yield Fraction IRT_Fabrication
Feed U Fabrication_IRT Feed U
Fabrication_IRT Unit Process Time_Fabrication
Start Time Fabrication GCR_YYYY
Start Time Fabrication GCR_M M
Start Time Fabrication GCR_DD Start Time_GCR
Fabrication
Yield Fraction GCR_Fabrication
Feed U Fabrication_GCR Feed U
Fabrication_GCR Unit
Start Time Fabrication PWR_YYYY
Start Time Fabrication PWR_M M
Start Time Fabrication PWR_DD Start Time_PWR
Fabrication
Yield Fraction PWR_Fabrication
Feed U Fabrication_PWR Feed U
Fabrication_PWR Unit Fabrication_IRT
Fabrication_PWR Fabrication_GCR
Process Time_Fabrication
Process Time_Fabrication
Cumulative Fuel
GCR ready
IRT ready
PWR ready Fabrication
Rate_GCR_copy
Fabrication Rate_IRT_copy
Fabrication Rate_PWR_copy Fabircation Rate_GCR
Fabircation Rate_IRT
Fabircation Rate_PWR
i_GCR ready
i_IRT ready
i_PWR ready
GCR
IRT
PWR i_GCR
i_IRT
i_PWR FA in GCR
FA in IRT
FA in PWR
Start Time IRT_YYYY
Start Time IRT_M M
Start Time IRT_DD Start Time_IRT
Pu Fraction IRT Feed U_IRT Feed U_IRT Unit
Process Time_GCR
Start Time GCR_YYYY
Start Time GCR_M M
Start Time GCR_DD Start Time_GCR
Pu Fraction GCR Feed U_GCR Feed U_GCR Unit
Start Time PWR_YYYY
Start Time PWR_M M
Start Time PWR_DD Start Time_PWR
Pu Fraction PWR Feed U_PWR Feed U_PWR Unit
Reactor_IRT
Reactor_PWR Reator_GCR
Loading Time_IRT
Process Time_PWR SNF_GCR
SNF_IRT
SNF_PWR i_SNF_GCR
i_SNF_IRT
i_SNF_PWR Irradiation_GCR
Irradiaion_IRT
Irradiation_PWR
Unloading
Amount_GCR Unloading Time_GCR
Unloading_GCR
Loading Time_GCR
Unloading Amount_IRT Unloading Time_IRT
Unloading_IRT Process Time_IRT
Unloading
Amount_PWR Unloading Time_PWR
Loading Time_PWR Unloading_PWR Pu Discharge_GCR
Pu Discharge_IRT
Pu Discharge_PWR Cumulative SNF
- 출처 : 이정현, 박일진, 안진수. (2011). 북한의 핵 프로그램과 검증. 한국원자력통제기술원: KINAC/TR-008/2011(B0-9120),
- 출처 : 이영욱 외. (2019). 2018 북핵총서. 한국원자력통제기술원: KINAC/GP-001/2019(B8-8130).
Irradiation_GCR
Irradiaion_IRT
Irradiation_PWR
SNF Pool_GCR
SNF Pool_IRT
SNF Pool_PWR Discharged Fuel_GCR
Discharged Fuel_IRT
Discharged Fuel_PWR i_SNF Pool_GCR
i_SNF Pool_IRT
i_SNF Pool_PWR
Reprocessing_IRT
Cooled SNF Reprocessing_GCR
Reprocessing_PWR
Reprocessing Rate
Waste Rate_Reprocessing
Recycled Pu
Reprocessing Waste
i_Recycled Pu
i_Reprocessing Waste i_Cooled SNF
Cooling Time
Cooling Time Cooling Time
Start Time Reprocessing_YYYY
Start Time Reprocessing_M M
Start Time Reprocessing_DD Start
Time_Reprocessing
Reprocessing Capacity_SNF
Reprocessing Capaity Unit Reprocessing Pu
Cooled SNF_Pu Pu Rate_GCR
Pu Rate_PWR Pu Rate_IRT
Pu Discharge_GCR
Pu Discharge_IRT
Pu Discharge_PWR i_Cooled SNF_Pu
Process Time_Reprocessing
Reprocessing Capacity_Pu Reprocessing Capaity
Unit_Pu
Reprocessing SNF Reprocessing Rate_Pu
Cooled SNF_Pu - Copy Pu Rate_GCR - Copy
Pu Rate_PWR - Copy Pu Rate_IRT - Copy
Pu Discharge_GCR
Pu Discharge_IRT
Pu Discharge_PWR i_Cooled SNF_Pu -
Copy 49.88 kg