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계획현장분석

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비핵화 (핵물질 생산 프로그램의 동결과 핵시설 및 핵물질 폐기)

- 장부검사 : 신고내용과 실제 운영기록의 일치 여부 검증

• 설계정보 검증 : 보유 시설 신고 사항에 대해 가용한 모든 정보를 통해 검증(서류/현장)

• 계량관리보고 검증 : 핵물질의 생산/사용/보유 등 종합적인 양과 물질수지를 확인 - 비파괴 검증 : 핵무기 및 핵물질의 직접 측정을 통해 신고내용 검증

- 시료분석(공정시료 및 환경시료)

• 공정시료의 총량분석을 통해 신고내용의 정확성 검증

• 환경시료 분석을 통해 미신고 활동의 존재 여부를 검증

비핵화 검증 (신고된 정보에 대한 검증)

장부검사 현장검증 시료분석

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• 시료보존, 운반, 수령검사

• 실험실 시료 준비

• 화학분리

• 기기 테스트

• 측정 및 분석

• 데이터 수집 및 보고

• 현장접근

• 건물, 야적지 등 진입

• 기록, 수거, 확인 진행

• 시건, 봉인, 격납 조치

• 시료채취, 운반, 저장 등

• 필요시 실시간 의사소통

• 문제정의

• 데이터 획득 전략

• 데이터 품질 목표

• 시료채취 계획

• 품질보증계획

• 분석절차서

• 검증, 평가, 유효성 확인 계획

계획

현장 분석

- 신고된 정보의 검증 - 분석 결과의 신뢰성 검증

- 대상 정보의 정량화를 통한 사전 검증 계획 수립 지원

- 자원의 효율적 배분 및 최적화

- 시각화(Visualization) 모델을 통한 생소한 시설 및 정보에 대한 친숙화(Familiarization)

Physical Model

비핵화 검증

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F

구조

형태

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Level Process

In Process Out Process

c_Start Time c_M aterial Amount

c_Process Time i_Level Process

c_Process Rate

1st qt 2nd qt 3rd qt 4th qt

0 1 2 3 kg/da

In Process Out Process

1940년 1월 1 1980년 1월 1 2020년 1월 1 0

10 20 30 40 kg/da

Period_1 Period_2 Period_3 Period_4 Period_5 Period_6

P ro c e s s R a te _ e a c h

1940년 1월 1 1980년 1월 1 2020년 1월 1 0

10 20 30 40 kg/da

P ro c e s s R a te

Operating Time

Time Cycle Operating Period

Start Time

Facility Alive

End Time Periodical Process

2017년 1월 1 2027년 1월 1

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

P e ri o d ic a l P ro c e s s

Out Process Process Rate

Capacity Start Time

In Process

Start Time_M M Start Time_YYYY

Start Time_DD c_Capacity

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Identified Sources ORE Discovery Rate M ining Rate

U from the other sources

M illing Rate Waste Rate_M ining

i_Identified Sources

i_ORE

c_Start Time_M ining_YYYY

Export ORE Waste_M illing

c_Start Time_M ining_M M

c_Start Time_M ining_DD Start Time_M ining

c_M ining Capacity

M ining Capacity Unit

M ining Capacity

c_Start Time_Export ORE_YYYY

c_Start Time_Export ORE_M M

c_Start Time_Export ORE_DD

Start Time_Export ORE

c_Export Fraction U Content M illing Efficiency Process Time_M ining

Delayed M ining Rate

M ining Waste i_M ining Waste

M illing Waste Export OREs

i_Export OREs i_M illing Waste

Rate_1

Yellow Cake_Central

- 출처 : David F. Von Hippel. (2019). Methods for Refining Estimates of Cumulative DRPK Uranium Production. Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament.

 평산 : 1,500,000t

 웅기 : 10,000,000t

 평산 : 10,000t/y

 웅기 : 19,000t/y

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Yellow Cake UF6

U Metal

Delayed Milling Rate Conversion UF6 Enrichment Rate

Conversion U Metal Waste

Rate_Conversion Milling Rate

Process Time_Milling

Start Time Conversion GCR_YYYY

Start Time Conversion GCR_MM

Start Time Conversion GCR_DD

Start Time Conversion IRT_YYYY

Start Time Conversion IRT_MM

Start Time Conversion IRT_DD

Start Time Conversion PWR_YYYY

Start Time Conversion PWR_MM

Start Time Conversion PWR_DD Start Time Conversion

HEU_YYYY

Start Time Conversion HEU_MM

Start Time Conversion HEU_DD

Start Time_GCR

Conversion Start Time_IRT

Conversion Start Time_PWR

Conversion Start Time_HEU

Conversion

Yeild Fraction GCR_Conversion

Yield Fraction IRT_Conversion

Yield Fraction PWR_Conversion

Yield Fraction HEU_Conversion

Feed U

Conversion_GCR Feed U

Conversion_IRT Feed U

Conversion_PWR Feed U Conversion_HEU

Feed U

Conversion_GCR Unit Feed U

Conversion_IRT Unit Feed U

Conversion_PWR Unit Process

Time_Conversion_GC R

Conversion U Metal_Origin

i_Yellow Cake

i_U Metal

Process Time_Conversion Conversion UF6_IRT

Conversion UF6_PWR

Conversion UF6_HEU i_UF6

Conversion Waste i_Conversion Waste

Total Enrichment Rate

Need Conversion Cal

For GCR

For Enrichment

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EU_HEU

EU_IRT

EU_PWR Enrichment Rate_HEU

Enrichment Rate_IRT

Enrichment Rate_PWR Conversion UF6

UF6 to EU Conversion UF6 to EU

i_UF6 to EU

Tail Rate

DU

Start Time Enrichment_IRT_YYYY

Start Time Enrichment_IRT_M M

Start Time Enrichment_IRT_DD Start Time

Enrichment_IRT

Start Time Enrichment_PWR_YYY

Y

Start Time Enrichment_PWR_M M

Start Time Enrichment_PWR_DD Start Time

Enrichment_PWR

Feed U Enrichment_HEU

Feed U Enrichment_IRT

Feed U Enrichment_PWR

Start Time_HEU Conversion

Yield Fraction IRT_Enrichemtn

Yield Fraction PWR_Enrichemtn

Feed U Enrichment_PWR Unit

Feed U Enrichment_IRT Unit

Enrichment_IRT

Enrichment_PWR

Process Time_Enrichment Start Time

Enrichment_HEU

Np

Nw SWU Product_8000SWU

Feed_8000SWU Yield Fraction

HEU_Enrichment Need_HEU

Enrichment_HEU i_EU_HEU

i_EU_IRT

i_EU_PWR

i_DU

Enrichment_IRT_Tail

Enrichment_PWR_Tail Total Enrichment Rate

Need Conversion Cal

Cumulative_EU

435.03 kg

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Conversion U M etal

Enrichment Rate_IRT

Enrichment Rate_PWR

Fabrication Feed_GCR

Fabrication Feed_IRT

Fabrication Feed_PWR U M etal Rate

HEU M etal Rate

LEU M etal Rate

i_Fabrication Feed_GCR

i_Fabrication Feed_IRT

i_Fabrication Feed_PWR

Fuel_GCR

Fuel_IRT

Fuel_PWR i_Fuel_GCR

i_Fuel_IRT

i_Fuel_PWR Fabircation Rate_GCR

Fabircation Rate_IRT

Fabircation Rate_PWR

Fabrication Waste Waste Rate_Fab_PWR

Waste Rate_Fab_IRT Waste Rate_Fab_GCR

i_Fabrication Waste

Start Time Fabrication IRT_YYYY

Start Time Fabrication IRT_M M

Start Time Fabrication IRT_DD Start Time_IRT

Fabrication

Yield Fraction IRT_Fabrication

Feed U Fabrication_IRT Feed U

Fabrication_IRT Unit Process Time_Fabrication

Start Time Fabrication GCR_YYYY

Start Time Fabrication GCR_M M

Start Time Fabrication GCR_DD Start Time_GCR

Fabrication

Yield Fraction GCR_Fabrication

Feed U Fabrication_GCR Feed U

Fabrication_GCR Unit

Start Time Fabrication PWR_YYYY

Start Time Fabrication PWR_M M

Start Time Fabrication PWR_DD Start Time_PWR

Fabrication

Yield Fraction PWR_Fabrication

Feed U Fabrication_PWR Feed U

Fabrication_PWR Unit Fabrication_IRT

Fabrication_PWR Fabrication_GCR

Process Time_Fabrication

Process Time_Fabrication

Cumulative Fuel

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GCR ready

IRT ready

PWR ready Fabrication

Rate_GCR_copy

Fabrication Rate_IRT_copy

Fabrication Rate_PWR_copy Fabircation Rate_GCR

Fabircation Rate_IRT

Fabircation Rate_PWR

i_GCR ready

i_IRT ready

i_PWR ready

GCR

IRT

PWR i_GCR

i_IRT

i_PWR FA in GCR

FA in IRT

FA in PWR

Start Time IRT_YYYY

Start Time IRT_M M

Start Time IRT_DD Start Time_IRT

Pu Fraction IRT Feed U_IRT Feed U_IRT Unit

Process Time_GCR

Start Time GCR_YYYY

Start Time GCR_M M

Start Time GCR_DD Start Time_GCR

Pu Fraction GCR Feed U_GCR Feed U_GCR Unit

Start Time PWR_YYYY

Start Time PWR_M M

Start Time PWR_DD Start Time_PWR

Pu Fraction PWR Feed U_PWR Feed U_PWR Unit

Reactor_IRT

Reactor_PWR Reator_GCR

Loading Time_IRT

Process Time_PWR SNF_GCR

SNF_IRT

SNF_PWR i_SNF_GCR

i_SNF_IRT

i_SNF_PWR Irradiation_GCR

Irradiaion_IRT

Irradiation_PWR

Unloading

Amount_GCR Unloading Time_GCR

Unloading_GCR

Loading Time_GCR

Unloading Amount_IRT Unloading Time_IRT

Unloading_IRT Process Time_IRT

Unloading

Amount_PWR Unloading Time_PWR

Loading Time_PWR Unloading_PWR Pu Discharge_GCR

Pu Discharge_IRT

Pu Discharge_PWR Cumulative SNF

- 출처 : 이정현, 박일진, 안진수. (2011). 북한의 핵 프로그램과 검증. 한국원자력통제기술원: KINAC/TR-008/2011(B0-9120),

- 출처 : 이영욱 외. (2019). 2018 북핵총서. 한국원자력통제기술원: KINAC/GP-001/2019(B8-8130).

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Irradiation_GCR

Irradiaion_IRT

Irradiation_PWR

SNF Pool_GCR

SNF Pool_IRT

SNF Pool_PWR Discharged Fuel_GCR

Discharged Fuel_IRT

Discharged Fuel_PWR i_SNF Pool_GCR

i_SNF Pool_IRT

i_SNF Pool_PWR

Reprocessing_IRT

Cooled SNF Reprocessing_GCR

Reprocessing_PWR

Reprocessing Rate

Waste Rate_Reprocessing

Recycled Pu

Reprocessing Waste

i_Recycled Pu

i_Reprocessing Waste i_Cooled SNF

Cooling Time

Cooling Time Cooling Time

Start Time Reprocessing_YYYY

Start Time Reprocessing_M M

Start Time Reprocessing_DD Start

Time_Reprocessing

Reprocessing Capacity_SNF

Reprocessing Capaity Unit Reprocessing Pu

Cooled SNF_Pu Pu Rate_GCR

Pu Rate_PWR Pu Rate_IRT

Pu Discharge_GCR

Pu Discharge_IRT

Pu Discharge_PWR i_Cooled SNF_Pu

Process Time_Reprocessing

Reprocessing Capacity_Pu Reprocessing Capaity

Unit_Pu

Reprocessing SNF Reprocessing Rate_Pu

Cooled SNF_Pu - Copy Pu Rate_GCR - Copy

Pu Rate_PWR - Copy Pu Rate_IRT - Copy

Pu Discharge_GCR

Pu Discharge_IRT

Pu Discharge_PWR i_Cooled SNF_Pu -

Copy 49.88 kg

- 출처 : 이영욱 외. (2019). 2019 북핵총서. 한국원자력통제기술원: KINAC/GP-007/2019(B9-8140).

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Little Boys Armament U Bomb

Fat Men Armament Pu Bomb

Enrichment Rate_HEU

Reprocessing Rate

U Bomb ready

Pu Bomb ready HEU for Armament

Pu for Armament

i_U Bomb ready

i_Pu Bomb ready

i_Little Boys

i_Fat Men

No of Bomb_U

No of Bomb_Pu c_Need U

c_Need Pu

- 출처 : Carey Sublette. (2019). Nuclear Weapons Frequently Asked Questions. Retrieved from http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Nwfaq/Nfaq0.html

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1945년 1월 1 1985년 1월 1 0

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 MTU/y

Mining Rate Mining Rate - Min Mining Rate - Max

1945년 1월 1 1985년 1월 1

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 MTU/y

Export ORE Export ORE - Min Export ORE - Max

1945년 1월 1 1985년 1월 1

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 MTU

ORE - Min ORE - Max ORE

1945년 1월 1 1985년 1월 1

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 MTU

Yellow Cake_Central Yellow Cake_Min Yellow Cake_Max

1945년 1월 1 1985년 1월 1

0 50 100 150 200 MTU/y

Milling Rate Milling Rate - Min Milling Rate - Max

+ +

-

+

- 출처 : David F. Von Hippel. (2019). Methods for Refining Estimates of Cumulative DRPK Uranium Production. Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament.

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1945년 1월 1 1985년 1월 1 0

100 200 300 MTU

Y e ll o w C a k e

1945년 1월 1 1985년 1월 1

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 kg

Fabrication Feed_GCR Fabrication Feed_IRT Fabrication Feed_PWR

1945년 1월 1 1985년 1월 1 0

50,000 100,000 kg

Cumulative_UF6 UF6

1945년 1월 1 1965년 1월 1 1985년 1월 1 2005년 1월 1 0

100 200 300 400 kg

EU_HEU EU_IRT EU_PWR

HEU

For NW 1945년 1월 1 1985년 1월 1

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 kg

U Metal Fabrication Feed_GCR

1945년 1월 1 1985년 1월 1 0

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 kg

C u m u la ti v e F u e l

1945년 1월 1 1985년 1월 1 0

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 kg

Fabrication Feed_GCR GCR SNF Pool_GCR

1945년 1월 1 1965년 1월 1 1985년 1월 1 2005년 1월 1 0

5 10 kg

Fabrication Feed_IRT IRT SNF Pool_IRT

1945년 1월 1 1965년 1월 1 1985년 1월 1 2005년 1월 1 0

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 kg

Fabrication Feed_PWR PWR

SNF Pool_PWR

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Enrichment

Process

1945년 1월 1 1985년 1월 1 0

5 10 15 kg

C o o le d S N F _ Pu

1945년 1월 1 1985년 1월 1 0

10 20 30 40 50 kg

R e c y c le d P u

1945년 1월 1 1985년 1월 1 0

100 200 300 400 kg

EU _ H E U

1945년 1월 1 1985년 1월 1 0

5 10 15 20

N o o f B o m b _ U

1945년 1월 1 1985년 1월 1 0

2 4 6 8 10

N o o f B o m b _ Pu

- 출처 : F. Vitaly. (2020). New methodology offers estimates for North Korean thermonuclear stockpile. Jane’s Intelligence Review.

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참조

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탄력성 : 사업계획서 작성의 제조건의 변화나 판매수량의 증감 등이 있는 경우 이를 반영핚 관렦 제 항목이 함께 연계하여 변경되어야 하고, 계획이 다 소