Contribution analysis of scoring in the soccer game: Using decision tree <sup>†</sup>
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(2) 1386. Dae Kee Min. 2. 연구목적 및 자료수집 ᆫᄀ ᅧ ᄋ ᅮᄌ ᅡᄅ ᅭᄂ ᆫᄎ ᅳ ᆨᄀ ᅮ ᅮᄇ ᆫᄉ ᅮ ᆨᄌ ᅥ ᅡᄅ ᅭᄋ ᆸᄎ ᅥ ᅦᄋ ᆫᄇ ᅵ ᅵᄌ ᅲᄋ ᆯᄉ ᅥ ᅳᄑ ᅩᄎ ᅳ (www.visualsports.co.kr)ᄀ ᅡᄉ ᅮᄌ ᆸᄒ ᅵ ᆫ 2013ᄂ ᅡ ᆫᄇ ᅧ ᅮᄐ ᅥ 2017ᄂ ᆫᄉ ᅧ ᅡᄋ ᅵᄋ ᅦᄌ ᆫᄒ ᅵ ᆼᄃ ᅢ ᆫ Kᄅ ᅬ ᅵᄀ ᅳᄀ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄌ ᆼᄎ ᅮ ᆺᄃ ᅥ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅵᄇ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᆼᄒ ᅢ ᆫ 1060ᄀ ᅡ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄅ ᆯᄃ ᅳ ᅢᄉ ᆼᄋ ᅡ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄒ ᅡᄋ ᆻᄀ ᅧ ᅩ, 0ᄃ ᅢ0ᄋ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄆ ᅮᄉ ᆼᄇ ᅳ ᅮ ᆯᄀ ᅳ ᄅ ᅵᅩ ᆨ ᄅᄒ ᆫᅧ ᅡ ᆼ ᄀᄀ ᅵᄂ ᆫᄋ ᅳ ᆫᄀ ᅧ ᅮᄃ ᅢᄉ ᆼᄋ ᅡ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄌ ᅦᅬ ᄋᄒ ᅡᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅧ ᅡ. 2.1. 골의 빈도분석 Table 2.1ᄋ ᅦᄂ ᆫᄀ ᅳ ᆨᄉ ᅡ ᅳᄏ ᅩᄋ ᅥᄋ ᅦᄄ ᅡᄅ ᆫᄀ ᅳ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄉ ᅮᄅ ᆯᄌ ᅳ ᆼᄅ ᅥ ᅵᄒ ᅡᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅧ ᅡ. ᄉ ᆫᄃ ᅥ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄒ ᅳ ᆫᄐ ᅡ ᆷᄋ ᅵ ᆯᄋ ᅳ ᅮᄉ ᆫᄋ ᅥ ᅳᄅ ᅩ resultᄋ ᅦ 1:0ᄇ ᅮ ᄐ 4:2 ᄁ ᅥ ᅡᄌ ᅵᄑ ᅭᄉ ᅵᄒ ᅡᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅧ ᅡ. 1:0ᄋ ᆫᄀ ᅳ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄀ ᅡ 1 ᄃ ᅢ 0ᄋ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄂ ᅡᄐ ᅡᄂ ᆫᅥ ᅢ ᆺ ᄀᄋ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄉ ᆫᄃ ᅥ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄒ ᅳ ᆫᄐ ᅡ ᆷᄋ ᅵ ᆯᄌ ᅳ ᅪᄎ ᆨᄋ ᅳ ᅦ 1, ᄉ ᆯᄌ ᅵ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᆯ ᅳ ᆫᄐ ᅡ ᄒ ᆷᅵ ᅵ ᄋᄋ ᅮᄎ ᆨᄋ ᅳ ᅦ 0ᄋ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄑ ᅭᄉ ᅵᄒ ᅡᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅧ ᅡ. ᄀ ᅳᄅ ᅥᄆ ᅳᄅ ᅩ 2:1ᄋ ᆫᄉ ᅳ ᆫᄃ ᅥ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄒ ᅳ ᆫᄐ ᅡ ᆷᄋ ᅵ ᅵ2ᄃ ᅢ 1ᄅ ᅩᄉ ᆼᄅ ᅳ ᅵᄅ ᆯᄀ ᅳ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᅮᄅ ᅩᄁ ᇀᄂ ᅳ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᆺ ᅥ ᅵᄀ ᄋ ᅩ, 1:2ᄂ ᆫᄉ ᅳ ᆫᄃ ᅥ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄒ ᅳ ᆫᄐ ᅡ ᆷᄋ ᅵ ᅴᄃ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅵ1ᄃ ᅢ 2ᄅ ᅩᄀ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄋ ᅦᄑ ᅢᄒ ᆫᅧ ᅡ ᆼ ᄀᄋ ᅮᄅ ᆯᄆ ᅳ ᆯᅡ ᅡ ᆫ ᄒᄃ ᅡ. ᄃ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅵᄋ ᆻᄂ ᅵ ᆫ 1060 ᄀ ᅳ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄌ ᆼ ᅮ 1ᄃ ᅢ0ᄇ ᅮᄐ ᅥ4ᄃ ᅢ 2ᄁ ᅡᄌ ᅵ 1032ᄋ ᅴᄀ ᆯᄀ ᅧ ᅪᄀ ᅡᄋ ᆫᄀ ᅥ ᆸᄃ ᅳ ᅬᄋ ᆻᄋ ᅥ ᅳᄆ ᅧ, ᄂ ᅡᄆ ᅥᄌ ᅵ 28ᄀ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄂ ᆫ4ᄃ ᅳ ᅢ2ᄋ ᅵᄉ ᆼᄌ ᅡ ᆫᄒ ᅵ ᆼᄃ ᅢ ᆫᄀ ᅬ ᆺᄋ ᅥ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄇ ᆫ ᅵ ᅩᄉ ᄃ ᅮᅡ ᄀᄂ ᆽᄋ ᅡ ᅡᄉ ᅥ, Table 2.1 ᄆ ᆨᄅ ᅩ ᆨᄋ ᅩ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄌ ᅦᅬ ᄋᄒ ᅡᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅧ ᅡ. Table 2.1 Summary statistics of goals in 1060 games result. frequency. percentile. 1:0 1:1 2:1 2:0 2:2 1:2 3:0 3:1 3:2 1:3 4:0 2:3 4:1 4:2. 234 150 140 107 76 74 57 52 42 17 17 16 15 15. 22.08 14.15 13.21 10.09 7.17 6.98 5.38 4.91 3.96 1.6 1.6 1.51 1.42 1.42. cumulative frequency 234 384 728 588 804 458 880 932 974 475 1002 820 1017 1032. cumulative percentile 22.08 36.23 68.68 55.47 75.85 43.21 83.02 87.92 91.89 44.81 94.53 77.36 95.94 97.36. ᄋ Table 2.1ᄋ ᅱ ᅦᄉ ᅥ ᄀ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵ ᄌ ᆼ 3ᄀ ᅮ ᆯᄋ ᅩ ᅵ ᄇ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᆼᄒ ᅢ ᆫ ᅧ ᅡ ᆼ ᄀᄋ ᅮ 2:1ᄋ ᆫ ᄇ ᅳ ᆫᄃ ᅵ ᅩᄀ ᅡ 140ᄋ ᆫ ᄇ ᅵ ᆫᄆ ᅡ ᆫ 1:2ᄂ ᅧ ᆫ 74ᄋ ᅳ ᅵᄀ ᅩ, 4ᄀ ᆯᄋ ᅩ ᆫ ᄀ ᅵ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᅮ 3:1ᄋ ᅴᅵ ᄇᄃ ᆫ ᅩᄀ ᅡ 52ᄋ ᆫᄇ ᅵ ᆫᄆ ᅡ ᆫ 1:3ᄋ ᅧ ᅴᄇ ᆫᄃ ᅵ ᅩᄂ ᆫ 17ᄋ ᅳ ᅵᄀ ᅩ, 5ᄀ ᆯᄋ ᅩ ᅵᄇ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᆼᄒ ᅢ ᆫᅧ ᅡ ᆼ ᄀᄋ ᅮᄋ ᅦᄂ ᆫ 3:2ᄋ ᅳ ᅴᄇ ᆫᄃ ᅵ ᅩᄀ ᅡ 42ᄋ ᆫᄇ ᅵ ᆫᄆ ᅡ ᆫ 2:3ᄋ ᅧ ᅴᄇ ᆫ ᅵ ᅩᄂ ᄃ ᆫ 16ᄋ ᅳ ᅵᄃ ᅡ. ᄋ ᅵᄉ ᅦᄀ ᅡᄌ ᅵᄅ ᆯᄐ ᅳ ᆼᄒ ᅩ ᅢᄉ ᅥᄉ ᆫᄌ ᅥ ᅦᄃ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅴᄀ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᅮᄀ ᅡᄀ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄅ ᆯᄋ ᅳ ᅲᄅ ᅵᄒ ᅡᄀ ᅦᄌ ᆫᄀ ᅥ ᅢᄒ ᅡᄂ ᆫᄀ ᅳ ᆺᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄌ ᅵ ᆨᅡ ᅡ ᆯ ᄒᄉ ᅮᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅵ ᅡ. 2.2. 경기당 평균 골 Table 2.2 Average goals of the game goal. N. mean. total goals goals scored goals lost. 1060 1060 1060. 2.81 1.86 0.94. standard deviation 1.5 0.99 0.97. minimum. maximum. 1 1 0. 9 6 5. 1060ᄀ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄋ ᅦᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫᄋ ᅡ ᅭᄋ ᆨᄐ ᅣ ᆼᄀ ᅩ ᅨᄅ ᆯᄇ ᅳ ᅩᄆ ᆫᄀ ᅧ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄃ ᆼᄑ ᅡ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᆫᅳ ᅲ ᄃᄉ ᆨ ᆯᄌ ᅵ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᆫ 2.8ᄅ ᅳ ᅩ 3ᄋ ᅦᄀ ᅡᄁ ᆸᄀ ᅡ ᅩᄉ ᆫᄌ ᅥ ᅦᄀ ᆯᄋ ᅩ ᆯᄀ ᅳ ᅵᄅ ᆨᄒ ᅩ ᆫᄐ ᅡ ᆷᄋ ᅵ ᅴᄑ ᆼ ᅧ ᆫᅳ ᅲ ᄀ 더 ᆨ ᆷ ᄌᄋ ᆫ 1.86ᄋ ᅳ ᅳᄅ ᅩ 2ᄋ ᅦᄀ ᆫᄉ ᅳ ᅡᄒ ᅡᄀ ᅩ, ᄉ ᆯᄌ ᅵ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᆫ 0.94ᄅ ᅳ ᅩ 1ᄋ ᅦᅡ ᄀᄁ ᆸᄃ ᅡ ᅡᄒ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᅮᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅵ ᅡ. ᄋ ᅵᄅ ᅥᄒ ᆫᄋ ᅡ ᅭᄋ ᆨᄐ ᅣ ᆼᄀ ᅩ ᅨᄅ ᆯᄐ ᅳ ᆼᄒ ᅩ ᅢᄉ ᅥᄃ ᅩ.
(3) Contribution analysis of scoring in the soccer game: Using decision tree. 1387. ᆫᄌ ᅥ ᄉ ᅦᄀ ᆯᄋ ᅩ ᅴᄌ ᆼᄋ ᅮ ᅭᄉ ᆼᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄋ ᅳ ᆺᄇ ᅧ ᆯᄉ ᅩ ᅮᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅵ ᅡ. 2.3. 연구목적과 방법 2.3.1. 연구목적 ᅵᄀ ᄉ ᆫᄌ ᅡ ᅦᄒ ᆫᄋ ᅡ ᆹᄋ ᅥ ᅵᄒ ᆫᄇ ᅡ ᆫᄋ ᅥ ᅴᄀ ᅵᄒ ᅬᄋ ᅦᄃ ᅢᄅ ᆼᄃ ᅣ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄒ ᅳ ᅡᄂ ᆫᄋ ᅳ ᅣᄀ ᅮᅪ ᄋᄃ ᆯᄅ ᅡ ᅵ, ᄀ ᆯᄋ ᅩ ᅵᄆ ᆭᄋ ᅡ ᅵᄇ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᆼᄒ ᅢ ᅡᄌ ᅵᄋ ᆭᄀ ᅡ ᅩᄌ ᅦᄒ ᆫᄃ ᅡ ᆫᄉ ᅬ ᅵᄀ ᆫᄋ ᅡ ᅦ ᄒᄌ ᆫ ᅡ ᆷᄊ ᅥ ᆨᄃ ᅵ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄒ ᅳ ᅡᄋ ᅧᄀ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄀ ᅡᄌ ᆫᄒ ᅵ ᆼᄃ ᅢ ᅬᄂ ᆫᄎ ᅳ ᆨᄀ ᅮ ᅮᄂ ᅡ, ᄋ ᅡᄋ ᅵᄉ ᅳᄒ ᅡᄏ ᅵᄃ ᆼᄋ ᅳ ᅴᄌ ᆼᄆ ᅩ ᆨᄋ ᅩ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄂ ᆫᄋ ᅳ ᅥᄄ ᆫᄀ ᅥ ᆯᄋ ᅩ ᅵᄀ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄋ ᅴᄉ ᆼᄅ ᅳ ᅵᄅ ᆯᄌ ᅳ ᅪ ᅮᄒ ᄋ ᆻᄂ ᅢ ᆫᄀ ᅳ ᅡᄂ ᆫᄉ ᅳ ᆫᄉ ᅥ ᅮᄃ ᆯᄋ ᅳ ᅴᄋ ᆨᄒ ᅧ ᆯᄋ ᅡ ᆯᄑ ᅳ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅡᄒ ᅡᄂ ᆫᄀ ᅳ ᅪᄌ ᆼᄋ ᅥ ᅦᄆ ᅢᄋ ᅮᄌ ᆼᄋ ᅮ ᅭᄒ ᆫᄋ ᅡ ᅭᄉ ᅩᄋ ᅵᄃ ᅡ. ᄐ ᆨᄒ ᅳ ᅵᄎ ᆨᄀ ᅮ ᅮᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄑ ᅢᄉ ᆨᄋ ᅢ ᅵᄌ ᇀᅥ ᅵ ᆫ ᄃᄀ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵ ᅴᄃ ᄋ ᆼᄌ ᅩ ᆷᄀ ᅥ ᆯᄋ ᅩ ᆯᄆ ᅳ ᆫᄃ ᅡ ᆯᄋ ᅳ ᅥᄐ ᆷᄋ ᅵ ᆯᄋ ᅳ ᅱᄀ ᅵᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄀ ᅮᄒ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᅮᅪ ᄋ, ᄀ ᆯᅥ ᅧ ᆼ ᄌᄌ ᆨᄋ ᅥ ᆫᄋ ᅵ ᆨᄌ ᅧ ᆫᄀ ᅥ ᆯᅳ ᅩ ᆯ ᄋᄆ ᆫᄃ ᅡ ᆯᄋ ᅳ ᅥᄐ ᆷᄋ ᅵ ᆯᄉ ᅳ ᆼᄅ ᅳ ᅵᄅ ᅩᄋ ᅵᄁ ᆫᄀ ᅳ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᅮᄅ ᆯᄇ ᅳ ᅵ ᅭᄒ ᄀ ᆫᅡ ᅡ ᄃᄆ ᆫᄃ ᅧ ᅢᄇ ᅮᄇ ᆫᄉ ᅮ ᆼᄅ ᅳ ᅵᄅ ᅩᄋ ᅵᄁ ᆫᄃ ᅳ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅵᄂ ᇁᄀ ᅩ ᅦᄑ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅡᄃ ᆯᄀ ᅬ ᆺᄋ ᅥ ᅵᄃ ᅡ. ᄇ ᆫᄋ ᅩ ᆫᄀ ᅧ ᅮᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄂ ᆫᄀ ᅳ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄇ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᆼᄒ ᅢ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᅮᄋ ᆻᄂ ᅵ ᆫᄆ ᅳ ᅩᄃ ᆫ ᅳ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᄃ ᆷᅴ ᅥ ᄋᄉ ᆼᄅ ᅳ ᅵᄋ ᅦᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄅ ᆯᄀ ᅳ ᆨᄀ ᅢ ᆫᄌ ᅪ ᆨᄋ ᅥ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄑ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅡᄒ ᅡᄀ ᅵᄋ ᅱᄒ ᆫᅧ ᅡ ᆫ ᄋᄀ ᅮᄅ ᆯᄌ ᅳ ᆫᄒ ᅵ ᆼᄋ ᅢ ᆯᄒ ᅳ ᅡᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅧ ᅡ. 2.3.2. 연구방법 ᆫᄀ ᅧ ᄋ ᅮᄇ ᆼᄇ ᅡ ᆸᄋ ᅥ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄋ ᆫᄀ ᅧ ᆫᄇ ᅪ ᆫᄉ ᅮ ᆨ (associate analysis), ᄅ ᅥ ᅩᄌ ᅵᄉ ᅳᄐ ᆨᄒ ᅵ ᅬᄀ ᅱᄇ ᆫᄉ ᅮ ᆨᄃ ᅥ ᆼᅳ ᅳ ᆯ ᄋᄀ ᅩᄅ ᅧᄒ ᅡᄋ ᆻᄋ ᅧ ᅳᄂ ᅡ, ᄉ ᅵᄀ ᆫᄋ ᅡ ᅦᄄ ᅡᄅ ᅡᄌ ᆫ ᅥ 괴 ᅢ ᄃᄂ ᆫᄀ ᅳ ᅪᄌ ᆼᄋ ᅥ ᆯᅮ ᅳ ᆫ ᄇᄉ ᆨᄒ ᅥ ᅡᄀ ᅵᄋ ᅦᄒ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᅨᄀ ᅡᄋ ᆻᄋ ᅵ ᅥᄉ ᆫᄎ ᅮ ᅡᄌ ᆨᄋ ᅥ ᅴᄉ ᅡᄀ ᆯᄌ ᅧ ᆼᄂ ᅥ ᅡᄆ ᅮᄇ ᆼᄇ ᅡ ᆸᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄌ ᅳ ᆨᄋ ᅥ ᆼᄒ ᅭ ᅡᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅧ ᅡ. ᄋ ᅴᄉ ᆯᄀ ᅡ ᆯᅥ ᅧ ᆼ ᄌᄂ ᅡᄆ ᅮᄂ ᆫᄇ ᅳ ᆫᄋ ᅡ ᆼ ᅳ ᆫᄉ ᅧ ᄇ ᅮᄀ ᅡᄇ ᆷᄌ ᅥ ᅮᄋ ᅵᄆ ᆫᄇ ᅧ ᆫᄅ ᅮ ᅲᄆ ᅩᄒ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᆯᄋ ᅳ ᆫᄉ ᅧ ᆨᄇ ᅩ ᆫᄉ ᅧ ᅮᄋ ᅵᄆ ᆫᄒ ᅧ ᅬᄀ ᅱᄆ ᅩᄒ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᆯᄌ ᅳ ᆨᄉ ᅡ ᆼᄒ ᅥ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᅮᄋ ᆻᄋ ᅵ ᅳᄆ ᅧ, ᄂ ᅡᄆ ᅮᄀ ᇁᄋ ᅵ ᅵᄀ ᅡᄌ ᆫᄒ ᅵ ᆼᄃ ᅢ ᆷᄋ ᅬ ᅦᄄ ᅡᄅ ᅡ ᆫᄉ ᅮ ᄇ ᆨᅢ ᅥ ᄃᄉ ᆼᄃ ᅡ ᅦᄋ ᅵᄐ ᅥᄅ ᆯᄒ ᅳ ᅡᄋ ᅱᄌ ᆸᄒ ᅵ ᆸᄋ ᅡ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄇ ᆫᄅ ᅮ ᅲᄒ ᆫᄃ ᅡ ᅡ. ᄂ ᅡᄆ ᅮᄀ ᅡᄌ ᅵᄉ ᆼᄌ ᅥ ᆼᄋ ᅡ ᆫᄋ ᅳ ᆫᄃ ᅦ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄑ ᅵ, ᄌ ᅵᄂ ᅵᄋ ᆫᄃ ᅵ ᆨᄉ ᅦ ᅳ, ᄀ ᅳᄅ ᅵᄀ ᅩᄏ ᅡᄋ ᅵᄌ ᅦᄀ ᆸ ᅩ ᅦᄋ ᄋ ᅴᄒ ᅢᄀ ᆯᅥ ᅧ ᆼ ᄌᄃ ᅬᄆ ᅧᄇ ᆫᄉ ᅮ ᆨᄀ ᅥ ᅪᄌ ᆼᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄃ ᅳ ᅩᄑ ᅭᄅ ᅩᄉ ᆸᄀ ᅱ ᅦᄒ ᅢᄉ ᆨᄒ ᅥ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᅮᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅵ ᅡᄂ ᆫᄌ ᅳ ᆼᄌ ᅡ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅵᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅵ ᅡ. ᄃ ᆫᄌ ᅡ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄂ ᆫᄀ ᅳ ᅡᄌ ᅵᄅ ᆯᄇ ᅳ ᆫᄅ ᅮ ᅵᄒ ᅡᄂ ᆫ ᅳ ᆹᄋ ᅡ ᄀ ᅦᅴ ᄋᄒ ᅡᄋ ᅧᄒ ᅡᄋ ᅱᄌ ᆸᄒ ᅵ ᆫᄋ ᅡ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄇ ᆫᄅ ᅮ ᅲᅬ ᄃᄀ ᅵᄄ ᅢᄆ ᆫᄋ ᅮ ᅦ, ᄇ ᆫᄅ ᅮ ᅵᄌ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅦᄋ ᅴᄒ ᅡᄋ ᅧᄇ ᆫᄉ ᅮ ᆨᄋ ᅥ ᅴᄀ ᆯᄀ ᅧ ᅪᄀ ᅡᄏ ᅳᄀ ᅦᄃ ᆯᄅ ᅡ ᅡᄌ ᆯᄉ ᅵ ᅮᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅵ ᅡᄂ ᆫ ᅳ ᆺᄋ ᅥ ᄀ ᅵᄃ ᅡ. ᄒ ᅡᄌ ᅵᄆ ᆫᄇ ᅡ ᆫᄋ ᅩ ᆫᄀ ᅧ ᅮᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄂ ᆫᄃ ᅳ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅵᄇ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᆼᄒ ᅢ ᅡᄂ ᆫᄆ ᅳ ᅩᄃ ᆫᄀ ᅳ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᅮᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄉ ᆼ, ᄆ ᅳ ᅮ, ᄑ ᅢᄆ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᅩᄅ ᅧᄒ ᅡᄀ ᅵᄄ ᅢᄆ ᆫᄋ ᅮ ᅦᄋ ᅵᄅ ᅥᄒ ᆫᄃ ᅡ ᆫ ᅡ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᄌ ᅵᄇ ᆫᄉ ᅮ ᆨᄋ ᅥ ᅦᄋ ᆼᄒ ᅧ ᆼᄋ ᅣ ᆯᄌ ᅳ ᅮᄌ ᅵᄂ ᆫᄋ ᅳ ᆭᄂ ᅡ ᆫᄃ ᅳ ᅡ.. 3. 의사결정나무 도표를 이용한 각 골의 승점에 대한 기여도 분석 결과 2013ᄂ ᆫᄇ ᅧ ᅮᄐ ᅥ 2017ᄂ ᆫᄁ ᅧ ᅡᄌ ᅵᄌ ᆫᄒ ᅵ ᆼᄃ ᅢ ᆫ Kᄅ ᅬ ᅵᄀ ᅳᄀ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵ 1060ᄋ ᅴᄀ ᆯᄀ ᅧ ᅪᄅ ᆯᄈ ᅳ ᅮᄅ ᅵᄂ ᅩᄃ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄉ ᆯᄌ ᅥ ᆼᄒ ᅥ ᅡᄀ ᅩ, ᄀ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄃ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅵ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᄇ ᆼᅡ ᅢ ᄒᄂ ᆫᄀ ᅳ ᅪᄌ ᆼᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄉ ᅳ ᆫᄎ ᅮ ᅡᄌ ᆨᄂ ᅥ ᅡᄆ ᅮᄃ ᅩᄑ ᅭᄅ ᆯᄋ ᅳ ᅵᄋ ᆼᄒ ᅭ ᅡᄋ ᅧᄇ ᆫᄉ ᅮ ᆨᄒ ᅥ ᅡᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅧ ᅡ. ᄃ ᅩᄑ ᅭᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄈ ᅮᄅ ᅵᄂ ᅩᄃ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄇ ᅮᄐ ᅥᄒ ᆨᄌ ᅪ ᆼᄃ ᅡ ᆫᄆ ᅬ ᅩᄃ ᆫᄌ ᅳ ᅡ ᆨᄂ ᅵ ᄉ ᅩᄃ ᅳᄂ ᆫᄉ ᅳ ᆫᄌ ᅥ ᅦᄀ ᆯ 1:0ᄋ ᅩ ᅵᄇ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᆼᄒ ᅢ ᆫᄋ ᅡ ᅵᄒ ᅮᄋ ᅴᄃ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄀ ᅥ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅪᄅ ᆯᄑ ᅳ ᅭᄉ ᅵᄒ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᆺᄋ ᅥ ᅵᄃ ᅡ. ᄃ ᅩᄑ ᅭᄋ ᅴᄆ ᅩᄃ ᆫᄀ ᅳ ᆯᄎ ᅧ ᆨᄀ ᅳ ᆹᄋ ᅡ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄀ ᅮᄉ ᆼᄃ ᅥ ᆫᄂ ᅬ ᅩ ᅳᄂ ᄃ ᆫᄇ ᅳ ᅮᄆ ᅩᄆ ᅡᄃ ᅵᄀ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄉ ᆼᄐ ᅡ ᅢᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄌ ᆼᄅ ᅩ ᅭᄃ ᆫᄀ ᅬ ᆺᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄂ ᅳ ᅡᄐ ᅡᄂ ᆫᅥ ᅢ ᆺ ᄀᄋ ᅵᄃ ᅡ. ᄃ ᅩᄑ ᅭᄋ ᅴᄋ ᅴᄉ ᅡᄀ ᆯᄌ ᅧ ᆼᄂ ᅥ ᅡᄆ ᅮᄂ ᆫᄀ ᅳ ᇁᄋ ᅵ ᅵᄅ ᆯ 5ᄅ ᅳ ᅩᄒ ᅡᄋ ᅧ 5ᄇ ᆫ ᅥ ᅢᄀ ᄍ ᆯᄋ ᅩ ᅵᄇ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᆼᄒ ᅢ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᅮᄅ ᆯᄎ ᅳ ᅬᄌ ᆼᄆ ᅩ ᅡᄃ ᅵᄅ ᅩᄒ ᅡᄋ ᆻᄋ ᅧ ᅳᄂ ᅡ, 5ᄀ ᆯᄇ ᅩ ᅮᄐ ᅥᄂ ᆫᄇ ᅳ ᆫᄃ ᅵ ᅩᄉ ᅮᄀ ᅡᄂ ᆽᄀ ᅡ ᅵᄄ ᅢᄆ ᆫᄋ ᅮ ᅦᄀ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄇ ᆫᄉ ᅮ ᆨᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄒ ᅳ ᅡᄌ ᅵᄋ ᆭᄋ ᅡ ᆻ ᅡ ᅡ. Kᄅ ᄃ ᅵᄀ ᅳᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄉ ᆫᄋ ᅮ ᅱᄀ ᆯᄌ ᅧ ᆼᄋ ᅥ ᆫᄀ ᅳ ᆨᄀ ᅡ ᅦᄋ ᆷᄋ ᅵ ᅴᄀ ᆯᄀ ᅧ ᅪᄋ ᅦᄄ ᅡᄅ ᅡᄋ ᆮᄋ ᅥ ᅥᄌ ᆫᄉ ᅵ ᆼᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅴᅡ ᆸ ᄒᄋ ᅦᄋ ᅴᄒ ᅡᄋ ᅧᄀ ᆯᅥ ᅧ ᆼ ᄌᄃ ᆫᄃ ᅬ ᅡ. ᄉ ᆼᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᆫᄀ ᅳ ᆨᄀ ᅡ ᆼ ᅧ ᅵᄋ ᄀ ᅦᅥ ᄉᄋ ᅵᄀ ᆫᄐ ᅵ ᆷᄋ ᅵ ᅵ 3ᄌ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄒ ᅳ ᆨᄃ ᅬ ᆨᄒ ᅳ ᅡᄀ ᅩ, ᄆ ᅮᄉ ᆼᄇ ᅳ ᅮᄋ ᅵᄆ ᆫ 1ᄌ ᅧ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄃ ᅳ ᅮᄐ ᆷᄋ ᅵ ᅵᄃ ᆼᄉ ᅩ ᅵᄋ ᅦᄒ ᆨᄃ ᅬ ᆨᄒ ᅳ ᅡᄀ ᅩ, ᄀ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄋ ᅦᄌ ᅵᄆ ᆫ 0ᄌ ᅧ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄒ ᅳ ᆨᄃ ᅬ ᆨ ᅳ ᆫᄃ ᅡ ᄒ ᅡ. ᄆ ᅩᄃ ᆫᄀ ᅳ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄉ ᆫᄌ ᅥ ᅦᄀ ᆯᄋ ᅩ ᅵᄇ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᆼᄒ ᅢ ᆫᅧ ᅡ ᆼ ᄀᄋ ᅮᄅ ᆯᄆ ᅳ ᆫᄌ ᅥ ᅥᄀ ᅵᄅ ᆨᄒ ᅩ ᅡᄋ ᆻᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄄ ᅢᄆ ᆫᄋ ᅮ ᅦ 2:1ᄋ ᆫᄉ ᅳ ᆫᄌ ᅥ ᅦᄀ ᆯᅳ ᅩ ᆯ ᄋᄆ ᆫᄃ ᅡ ᆫᄐ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅵ ᅵᄉ ᆼᄅ ᅳ ᅵᄒ ᆫ ᅡ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᄀ ᅮᄋ ᅵᄀ ᅩ, 1:2ᄂ ᆫᄉ ᅳ ᆫᄌ ᅥ ᅦᄀ ᆯᅳ ᅩ ᆯ ᄋᄒ ᅥᄋ ᆼᄒ ᅭ ᆫᄐ ᅡ ᆷᄋ ᅵ ᅵᄉ ᆼᄅ ᅳ ᅵᄒ ᆫᅧ ᅡ ᆼ ᄀᄋ ᅮᄅ ᆯᄄ ᅳ ᆺᄒ ᅳ ᆫᄃ ᅡ ᅡ. 3.1. 첫 번째 골의 승점에 대한 기여도 ᆺᄇ ᅥ ᄎ ᆫᄍ ᅥ ᅢᄀ ᆯᅳ ᅩ ᆯ ᄋ fg, ᄃ ᅮᄇ ᆫᄍ ᅥ ᅢᄀ ᆯᄋ ᅩ ᆯ sg, ᄉ ᅳ ᅦᄇ ᆫᄍ ᅥ ᅢᄀ ᆯᅳ ᅩ ᆯ ᄋ tg ᄋ ᅵᄅ ᅡᄑ ᅭᄉ ᅵᄒ ᅡᄀ ᅩᄒ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᆯᄃ ᅩ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᆯ 1, ᄒ ᅳ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᆯᄋ ᅩ ᅵᄉ ᆼᄋ ᅡ ᅴᄃ ᆨ ᅳ ᄌᄋ ᆷ ᅥ ᆯ +1ᄅ ᅳ ᅩ, ᄀ ᅳᄅ ᅵᄀ ᅩᄒ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᆯᄋ ᅩ ᅴᄉ ᆯᄌ ᅵ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᆯ -1ᄅ ᅳ ᅩᄑ ᅭᄉ ᅵᄒ ᅡᄀ ᅩᄀ ᅦᄋ ᆷᄋ ᅵ ᅦᄋ ᅵᄀ ᆫᄀ ᅵ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᅮᄅ ᆯ wᄅ ᅳ ᅩᄑ ᅭᄉ ᅵᄒ ᆫᄃ ᅡ ᅡ. ᄋ ᅵᄌ ᆼᄋ ᅥ ᅴᄋ ᅦᄋ ᅴᄒ ᅡ ᆫᄈ ᅧ ᄆ ᅮᄅ ᅵᄂ ᅩᄃ ᅳ 1060 ᄀ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄌ ᆼᄎ ᅮ ᆺᄇ ᅥ ᆫᄍ ᅥ ᅢᄀ ᆯᅳ ᅩ ᆯ ᄋᄂ ᇂᄀ ᅥ ᅩᄀ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄋ ᅦᄋ ᅵᄀ ᆫᄒ ᅵ ᆨᄅ ᅪ ᆯᄋ ᅲ ᆫᄋ ᅳ ᅵᄆ ᅳᄅ ᅩ, ᄉ ᆼᄌ ᅳ ᆷ 3ᄌ ᅥ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅦᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄂ ᆫ ᅳ 0.67*3=2.0ᄋ ᅵᄅ ᅡᄒ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᅮᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅵ ᅡ..
(4) 1388. Dae Kee Min. 3.2. 두 번째 득점이 발생한 경우 ᅮᄇ ᄃ ᆫᄍ ᅥ ᅢᄃ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅴᄀ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᅮᄂ ᆫᄋ ᅳ ᅡᄅ ᅢ Figure 3.1ᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄇ ᅩᄂ ᆫᄇ ᅳ ᅡᄋ ᅪᄀ ᇀᄋ ᅡ ᅵᄈ ᅮᄅ ᅵᄂ ᅩᄃ ᅳ 1:0ᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄀ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄀ ᅡᄀ ᅨᄉ ᆨᄌ ᅩ ᆫᄒ ᅵ ᆼᄃ ᅢ ᆫᄀ ᅬ ᆺ ᅥ ᄋᄅ ᅳ ᅩ, ᄃ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄒ ᅳ ᅡᄋ ᅧ 2:0ᄋ ᆫᅧ ᅵ ᆼ ᄀᄋ ᅮᅪ ᄋᄉ ᆯᄌ ᅵ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄒ ᅳ ᅡᄋ ᅧ 1:1ᄋ ᅵᄃ ᆫᄀ ᅬ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᅮ, ᄀ ᅳᄅ ᅵᄀ ᅩᄎ ᅮᄀ ᅡᄀ ᆯᄋ ᅩ ᆹᄋ ᅥ ᅵᄀ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄀ ᅡᄌ ᆼᄅ ᅩ ᅭᄃ ᆫᄉ ᅬ ᅦᄀ ᅡᄌ ᅵ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᄀ ᅮᄀ ᅡᄇ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᆼᄒ ᅢ ᆫᄃ ᅡ ᅡ.. Figure 3.1 Decision tree of second goal from 1:1. 가. 득점으로 2:0인 경우 p(w|f g = 1+, sg = 1+) = ᆫᅧ ᅵ ᄋ ᆼ 구 ᄋᄇ ᅩᄃ ᅡ 0.7ᄋ ᅵᄉ ᆼᄉ ᅡ ᆼᄒ ᅳ ᆻᄃ ᅢ ᅡ.. 319 354. = 0.9ᄋ ᅵᄆ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄉ ᆼᄌ ᅳ ᆷ 3ᄋ ᅥ ᅦᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄂ ᆫ 0.9*3=2.7ᄋ ᅳ ᅵᄃ ᆫᄃ ᅬ ᅡ. ᄎ ᆺᅥ ᅥ ᆫ ᄇᄍ ᅢᄀ ᆯ ᅩ. 나. 실점으로 1:1인 경우 p(w|f g = 1+, sg = −1) = 153 = 0.32ᄋ ᅵᄀ ᅩ, ᄉ ᆼᄌ ᅳ ᆷ 3ᄋ ᅥ ᅦᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄀ ᅡ 0.96ᄋ ᅵᄆ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄎ ᆺᄇ ᅥ ᆫᄍ ᅥ ᅢᄀ ᆯᄋ ᅩ ᅦᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫ ᅡ 472 ᅵᄋ ᄀ ᅧᅩ ᄃᄂ ᆫ 2.0ᄋ ᅳ ᅦᄉ ᅥ 1.04ᄅ ᅩᄀ ᆷᄉ ᅡ ᅩᄒ ᅡᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅧ ᅡ. 다. 득실점이 없이 1:0으로 경기가 종료된 경우 234 p(w|f g = 1+, sg = 0) = 234 = 1ᄋ ᅵᄆ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄉ ᆼᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᆯ 3ᄋ ᅳ ᆯᄒ ᅳ ᆨᄇ ᅪ ᅩᄒ ᆫᄃ ᅡ ᅡ. ᅵᄀ ᄋ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᅮᄀ ᆯᄋ ᅩ ᅵᄇ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᆼᄒ ᅢ ᅡᄌ ᅵᄋ ᆭᄋ ᅡ ᆻᄀ ᅡ ᅵᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅮᄇ ᅵᄋ ᅦᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄀ ᅡ 1ᄌ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅵᄅ ᅡᄒ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᅮᄋ ᆻᄀ ᅵ ᆻᄋ ᅦ ᅳᄂ ᅡ, ᄀ ᆯᄋ ᅩ ᅴᄀ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄂ ᆫ ᅳ ᅦᄋ ᄌ ᅬᅡ ᆫ ᄒᄃ ᅡ..
(5) Contribution analysis of scoring in the soccer game: Using decision tree. 1389. 3.3. 세 번째 골의 승점에 대한 기여도 ᅦᄇ ᄉ ᆫᄍ ᅥ ᅢᄀ ᆯᄋ ᅩ ᆫ 2:0ᄀ ᅳ ᅪ 1:1ᄋ ᅴᄃ ᅮᄀ ᅡᄌ ᅵᄀ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᅮᄀ ᅡᄇ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᆼᄒ ᅢ ᅡᄀ ᅵᄄ ᅢᄆ ᆫᄋ ᅮ ᅦ 2ᄀ ᅢᄋ ᅴᄉ ᅥᄇ ᅳᄐ ᅳᄅ ᅵᄃ ᅩᄑ ᅭᄅ ᆯᄋ ᅳ ᅵᄋ ᆼᄒ ᅭ ᅡᄋ ᅧᄇ ᆫᄉ ᅮ ᆨᄋ ᅥ ᆯ ᅳ ᆫᄒ ᅵ ᄌ ᆼᅡ ᅢ ᄒᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅧ ᅡ. 3.3.1. 2:0에서의 경우. Figure 3.2 Decision tree of third goal from 2:0. 가. 득점한 경우 = 1ᄋ ᅵᄆ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄂ ᅩᄃ ᅳ 46ᄋ ᅴᄉ ᆼᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅦ Figure 3.2ᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄇ ᅩᄂ ᆫᄇ ᅳ ᅡᅪ ᄋᄀ ᇀᄋ ᅡ ᅵ, p(w|f g = 1+, sg = 1+, tg = 1) = 115 115 ᅢᄒ ᄃ ᆫᅵ ᅡ ᄀᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄂ ᆫ 3.0ᄋ ᅳ ᅵᄃ ᅡ. ᄀ ᅳᄅ ᅥᄂ ᅡᄋ ᅱᄆ ᅡᄃ ᅵ 35ᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄀ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄀ ᅡᄋ ᅵᄆ ᅵ 2.7ᄋ ᅵᄆ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄉ ᅦᅥ ᄇᄍ ᆫ ᅢᄀ ᆯᄋ ᅩ ᅴᄉ ᆼᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅦᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫᄉ ᅡ ᆯ ᅵ ᅦᄀ ᄌ ᅵᅧ ᄋᄃ ᅩᄂ ᆫ 0.3ᄋ ᅳ ᅵᄅ ᅡᄒ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᅮᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅵ ᅡ. 나. 실점한 경우 97 p(w|f g = 1+, sg = 1+, tg = (−1)+) = 132 = 0.735ᄋ ᅵᄆ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄂ ᅩᄃ ᅳ 47ᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄉ ᆼᄌ ᅳ ᆷ3ᄌ ᅥ ᆷᄃ ᅥ ᅢᄒ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄂ ᆫ ᅳ 2.2ᄋ ᅵᅡ ᄃ. ᄉ ᆯᄌ ᅵ ᆷᅥ ᅥ ᆫ ᄌ 2:0ᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄀ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄀ ᅡ 2.7ᄋ ᅵᄆ ᅳᄅ ᅩ 0.5ᄌ ᆷᄀ ᅥ ᆷᄉ ᅡ ᅩᄒ ᆻᄃ ᅢ ᅡᄀ ᅩᄒ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᅮᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅵ ᅡ. 다. 득실점이 없는 경우 107 p(w|f g = 1+, sg = 1+, tg = 0) = 107 = 1ᄋ ᅵᄆ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄂ ᅩᄃ ᅳ 47ᄋ ᅦᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫᄉ ᅡ ᆼᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄀ ᅥ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄂ ᆫ 3ᄋ ᅳ ᅵᄃ ᅡ. ᄀ ᅳᄅ ᅥᄂ ᅡ 2.0ᄋ ᅴᄀ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩ 2.7ᄋ ᅵᄆ ᅳᄅ ᅩ, ᄉ ᆯᄌ ᅵ ᅦᄅ ᅩᄀ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄂ ᆫ 0.3ᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅵᄅ ᅡᄒ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᅮᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅵ ᅡ..
(6) 1390. Dae Kee Min. 3.3.2. 1:1 에서의 경우. Figure 3.3 Decision tree of third goal from 1:1. Figure 3.3ᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥ ᄃ ᅮ ᄇ ᆫᄍ ᅥ ᅢ ᄀ ᆯᅳ ᅩ ᆯ ᄋ ᄉ ᆯᄌ ᅵ ᆷᄒ ᅥ ᅢᄉ ᅥ ᄀ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄀ ᅡ 1:1ᄅ ᅩ ᄌ ᆫᄒ ᅵ ᆼᄃ ᅢ ᆫ ᄂ ᅬ ᅩᄃ ᅳ 36ᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥ ᄉ ᆼᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅦ ᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫ ᄀ ᅡ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄂ ᆫ ᅳ 1.26ᄋ ᅵᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅥ ᅡ. 가. 득점한 경우 140 = 0.82ᄋ ᅵᄆ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄉ ᆼᄌ ᅳ ᆷ 3ᄋ ᅥ ᅦᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄂ ᆫ 3*0.82=2.47ᄋ ᅳ ᅵ p(w|f g = 1+, sg = (−1)+, tg = 1+) = 170 ᅡ. ᄂ ᄃ ᅩᄃ ᅳ 36ᄋ ᅴ 1.26ᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥ 1.21 ᄉ ᆼᄉ ᅡ ᆼᄒ ᅳ ᆻᄃ ᅢ ᅡ. 1:1ᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄎ ᅮᄀ ᅡᄃ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᆫᄉ ᅳ ᆫᄌ ᅥ ᅦᄀ ᆯᄇ ᅩ ᅩᄃ ᅡᄂ ᆫᄉ ᅳ ᆼᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅦᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄀ ᅡᄂ ᆽᄋ ᅡ ᆻᄌ ᅡ ᅵᄆ ᆫᄃ ᅡ ᅡᄅ ᆫᄋ ᅳ ᅥᄄ ᆫᄎ ᅥ ᅮᄀ ᅡᄃ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄇ ᅥ ᅩᄃ ᅡᄂ ᆫᄉ ᅳ ᆼᄌ ᅳ ᆷ ᅥ ᅦᄃ ᄋ ᅢᄒ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄀ ᅡᄂ ᇁᄋ ᅩ ᆻᄃ ᅡ ᅡ. 나. 실점한 경우 13 p(w|f g = 1+, sg = (−1)+, tg = (−1)+) = 152 = 0.086ᄋ ᅵᄆ ᅳᄅ ᅩ ᄉ ᆼᄌ ᅳ ᆷ 3ᄋ ᅥ ᅦ ᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫ ᄀ ᅡ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄂ ᆫ ᅳ 3*0.086=0.26ᄋ ᅵᄃ ᅡ. 1:1ᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥ ᄃ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄀ ᅥ ᅪ ᄉ ᆯᄌ ᅵ ᆷᅵ ᅥ ᄋ ᅧ ᆫ ᆼ ᄀᄋ ᅮᄋ ᅴ ᄉ ᆼᄌ ᅳ ᆷ 3ᄌ ᅥ ᆷᅦ ᅥ ᄋ ᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫ ᄀ ᅡ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄂ ᆫ 2.47-0.26=2.21ᄅ ᅳ ᅩ ᄏ ᆫ ᅳ ᅡᄋ ᄎ ᅵᄅ ᆯᄇ ᅳ ᅩᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅧ ᅡ. 다. 득실점이 없는 경우 1:1ᄅ ᅩᄌ ᆫᄒ ᅵ ᆼᄃ ᅢ ᆫ 472ᄀ ᅬ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄌ ᆼ 150(32%)ᄇ ᅮ ᆫᄋ ᅥ ᅴᄀ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄀ ᅡᄃ ᆨᄉ ᅳ ᆯᄌ ᅵ ᆷᅥ ᅥ ᆹ ᄋᄋ ᅵᄁ ᇀᄂ ᅳ ᆻᄃ ᅡ ᅡ..
(7) Contribution analysis of scoring in the soccer game: Using decision tree. 1391. 3.4. 네 번째 골의 승점에 대한 기여도 ᅦᄇ ᄂ ᆫᄍ ᅥ ᅢᄃ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᆫᄂ ᅳ ᅩᄃ ᅳ35 2:0ᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄉ ᆯᄌ ᅵ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄒ ᅳ ᅢᄉ ᅥ 2:1ᄋ ᆫᅧ ᅵ ᆼ ᄀᄋ ᅮ, ᄂ ᅩᄃ ᅳ36 1:1ᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄃ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄒ ᅳ ᅢᄉ ᅥ 2:1ᄋ ᆫᅧ ᅵ ᆼ ᄀᄋ ᅮ, ᄀ ᅳ ᅵᄀ ᄅ ᅩᆯ ᅵᄌ ᄉ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄒ ᅳ ᅢᄉ ᅥ 1:2ᄋ ᆫᅧ ᅵ ᆼ ᄀᄋ ᅮᄀ ᅡᄇ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᆼᄒ ᅢ ᅡᄀ ᅵᄄ ᅢᄆ ᆫᄋ ᅮ ᅦ 3ᄀ ᅢᄋ ᅴᄉ ᅥᄇ ᅳᄐ ᅳᄅ ᅵᄃ ᅩᄑ ᅭᄅ ᆯᄋ ᅳ ᅵᄋ ᆼᄒ ᅭ ᅡᄋ ᅧᄇ ᆫᄉ ᅮ ᆨᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄌ ᅳ ᆫᄒ ᅵ ᆼᄒ ᅢ ᅡᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅧ ᅡ. 3.4.1. 2:0에서 실점을 해서 2:1의 경우 Figure 3.4ᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥ ᄂ ᅡᄐ ᅡᄂ ᆫᄇ ᅡ ᅡᄋ ᅪ ᄀ ᇀᄋ ᅡ ᅵ, 2:1ᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥ 3:1ᄅ ᅩ ᄁ ᇀᄂ ᅳ ᆫ ᄀ ᅡ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᅮᄂ ᆫ 29/132, 2:2ᄅ ᅳ ᅩ ᄀ ᅨᄉ ᆨ ᄌ ᅩ ᆫᄒ ᅵ ᆼᄃ ᅢ ᆫ ᄉ ᅬ ᆼᄐ ᅡ ᅢᄂ ᆫ ᅳ 46/132, 2:1ᄅ ᅩᄁ ᇀᄂ ᅳ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᅮᄂ ᆫ 57/132ᄅ ᅳ ᅩᄌ ᅦᄋ ᆯᄆ ᅵ ᆭᄃ ᅡ ᅡ.. Figure 3.4 Decision tree of fourth goal from 2:1. 가. 득점한 경우 29 p(w|f g = 1+, sg = 1+, tg = 1+, f og = 1) = 29 = 1ᄋ ᅵᄆ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄉ ᆼᄌ ᅳ ᆷ 3ᄋ ᅥ ᅦᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄂ ᆫ 3ᄋ ᅳ ᅵᄂ ᅡ 2:1 ᄀ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᅮ ᆫᄂ ᅵ ᄋ ᅩᄃ ᅳ 47ᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄀ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄀ ᅡ 2.2ᄋ ᅵᄆ ᅳᄅ ᅩ 0.8 ᄉ ᆼᄉ ᅡ ᆼᄒ ᅳ ᆻᄃ ᅢ ᅡ. 나. 실점한 경우 p(w|f g = 1+, sg = 1+, tg = 1+, f og = (−1)+) = 3*0.24=0.72ᄅ ᅩᄀ ᆷᄉ ᅡ ᅩᄒ ᆫᄃ ᅡ ᅡ.. 11 46. = 0.24ᄋ ᅵᄆ ᅳᄅ ᅩ ᄉ ᆼᄌ ᅳ ᆷ 3ᄋ ᅥ ᅦ ᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫ ᄀ ᅡ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄂ ᆫ ᅳ. 3.4.2. 1:1에서 득점을 해서 2:1인 경우 Figure 3.5ᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥ ᄂ ᅩᄃ ᅳ49ᄋ ᅴ 1:1ᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥ 2:1ᄅ ᅩ ᄌ ᆫᄒ ᅵ ᆼᄃ ᅢ ᆫ ᄀ ᅬ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄂ ᆫ ᄌ ᅳ ᆫᄎ ᅥ ᅦ 1060ᄌ ᆼ 170(16%)ᄇ ᅮ ᆫ ᄋ ᅥ ᅵᄃ ᅡ. 170 ᄀ ᆼ ᅧ ᄀ ᄌ ᅵ ᆼ 1:1ᄋ ᅮ ᅵ ᅬ ᄃᄂ ᆫ ᄀ ᅳ ᅪᄌ ᆼᄋ ᅥ ᅦᄉ ᅥ ᄃ ᆼᄌ ᅩ ᆷ ᄀ ᅥ ᆯᅳ ᅩ ᆯ ᄋ ᄒ ᅥᄋ ᆼᄒ ᅭ ᆻᄌ ᅢ ᅵᄆ ᆫ, ᄃ ᅡ ᅡᄉ ᅵ ᄃ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄒ ᅥ ᅡᄋ ᅧ 3:1ᄅ ᅩ ᄉ ᆼᄌ ᅳ ᆷ ᄒ ᅥ ᆨᄇ ᅪ ᅩᄅ ᆯ ᄆ ᅳ ᅡᄅ ᆫᄒ ᅧ ᆫ ᅧ ᅡ ᆼ ᄀᄀ ᅵᄂ ᆫ ᅳ 46(27%)ᄇ ᆫ, ᄃ ᅥ ᆼᄌ ᅩ ᆷᄀ ᅥ ᆯᅳ ᅩ ᆯ ᄋᄒ ᅥᄋ ᆼᄒ ᅭ ᅡᄋ ᅧ 2:2ᄅ ᅩᄀ ᅨᄉ ᆨᄌ ᅩ ᆫᄒ ᅵ ᆼᄃ ᅢ ᆫᄀ ᅬ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄂ ᆫ 41(24%)ᄇ ᅳ ᆫ, ᄆ ᅥ ᅡᄌ ᅵᄆ ᆨᄋ ᅡ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄅ ᅵᄃ ᅳᄅ ᆯᄒ ᅳ ᅥᄋ ᆼᄒ ᅭ ᅡᄌ ᅵᄋ ᆭ ᅡ ᅩᄁ ᄀ ᇀᅢ ᅳ 녀 ᆫ ᆼ ᄀᄀ ᅵᄂ ᆫ 83(49%)ᄇ ᅳ ᆫᄋ ᅥ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄃ ᅡᄅ ᆫᄀ ᅳ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᅮᄋ ᅦᄇ ᅵᄒ ᅡᄋ ᅧᄉ ᆼᄃ ᅡ ᅢᄇ ᆫᄃ ᅵ ᅩᄀ ᅡᄂ ᇁᄋ ᅩ ᆻᄃ ᅡ ᅡ..
(8) 1392. Dae Kee Min. Figure 3.5 Decision tree of fourth goal from 2:1. 가. 득점을 해서 3:1인 경우 ᅩᅳ ᄂ ᄃ 49ᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥ p(w) = 0.82ᄋ ᅵᄀ ᅩ, ᄃ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄒ ᅥ ᆫ ᄂ ᅡ ᅩᄃ ᅳ 55ᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥ p(w) = 0.96ᄋ ᅵᄆ ᅳᄅ ᅩ, ᄉ ᆼᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅦ ᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫ ᄀ ᅡ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄂ ᆫ ᅳ 0.14*3=0.42ᄋ ᅵᄃ ᅡ. ᄋ ᅵᄆ ᅵ 2:1 ᄉ ᆼᄒ ᅡ ᆼᄋ ᅪ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄉ ᆼᄇ ᅳ ᅮᄋ ᅦᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᅡᄂ ᆼᄉ ᅳ ᆼᄋ ᅥ ᅵᄀ ᆯᅥ ᅧ ᆼ ᄌᄃ ᅬᄋ ᆻᄀ ᅥ ᅵᄄ ᅢᄆ ᆫᄋ ᅮ ᅦᄎ ᅮᄀ ᅡᄀ ᆯᄋ ᅩ ᅴᄀ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄂ ᆫᄂ ᅳ ᇁ ᅩ ᅵᄋ ᄌ ᆭᄋ ᅡ ᆻᄃ ᅡ ᅡ. 나. 실점을 해서 2:2인 경우 ᆨᄅ ᅪ ᄒ ᆯᄋ ᅲ ᅵ 0.82ᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥ 0.32ᄅ ᅩᄀ ᆷᄉ ᅡ ᅩᄃ ᅬᄆ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄉ ᆼᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅦᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄂ ᆫ -1.5ᄀ ᅳ ᅡᄃ ᆫᄃ ᅬ ᅡ. ᄃ ᆼᄌ ᅩ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄒ ᅳ ᅥᄋ ᆼᄒ ᅭ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᅮᄋ ᅦᄀ ᅨᄉ ᆨ ᅩ ᆫᄒ ᅵ ᄌ ᆼᄃ ᅢ ᆫᄀ ᅬ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄑ ᅢᄒ ᆫᅧ ᅡ ᆼ ᄀᄋ ᅮᄀ ᅡ 59%ᄂ ᅡᅬ ᄃᄂ ᆫᄀ ᅳ ᆺᄋ ᅥ ᆫᄎ ᅳ ᅮᄀ ᆨᄀ ᅧ ᆯᄋ ᅩ ᆯᄒ ᅳ ᅥᄋ ᆼᄒ ᅭ ᆫᅥ ᅡ ᆺ ᄀᄋ ᅦᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫᄉ ᅡ ᆷᄅ ᅵ ᅵᄌ ᆨᄋ ᅥ ᆫᅧ ᅵ ᆼ ᄋᄒ ᆼᄋ ᅣ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄇ ᅩᄋ ᆫᄃ ᅵ ᅡ. 3.4.3. 1:1에서 실점을 해서 1:2인 경우 Figure 3.6ᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥ ᄂ ᅩᄃ ᅳ50ᄋ ᅴ 1:2ᄅ ᅩ ᄌ ᆫᆼ ᅵ ᄒ ᅢᄃ ᆫ ᄀ ᅬ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄂ ᆫ ᄌ ᅳ ᆫᄎ ᅥ ᅦ 1060 ᄀ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵ ᄌ ᆼ 152(14.3%)ᄇ ᅮ ᆫ ᄋ ᅥ ᅵᄃ ᅡ. 152 ᄀ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵ ᆼ 1:2ᄋ ᅮ ᄌ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄉ ᆯᄌ ᅵ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄒ ᅳ ᅥᄋ ᆼᄒ ᅭ ᅡᄋ ᅧ 1:3ᄋ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄌ ᆫᄒ ᅵ ᆼᄃ ᅢ ᆫᄀ ᅬ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄂ ᆫ 35ᄋ ᅳ ᅵᄆ ᅧ, ᄃ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄒ ᅳ ᅡᄋ ᅧ 2:2ᄋ ᅴᄆ ᅮᄉ ᆼᄇ ᅳ ᅮᄌ ᆫᄒ ᅵ ᆼᄃ ᅢ ᆫᄀ ᅬ ᆼᅵ ᅧ ᄀᄂ ᆫ ᅳ 43ᄇ ᆫᄋ ᅥ ᅵᄃ ᅡ. ᄀ ᅳᄅ ᅵᄀ ᅩᄎ ᅮᄀ ᅡᄃ ᆨᄉ ᅳ ᆯᄌ ᅵ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅵᄋ ᆹᄋ ᅥ ᅵᄁ ᇀᄂ ᅳ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄂ ᆫ 74ᄇ ᅳ ᆫᄋ ᅥ ᅵᄃ ᅡ. 가. 득점을 해서 2:2인 경우 ᆼᅥ ᅳ ᄉ ᆷ ᄌ 3ᄌ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅦᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫᄒ ᅡ ᆨᄅ ᅪ ᆯᄋ ᅲ ᆫ 0.085ᄋ ᅳ ᅦᄉ ᅥ 0.23ᄅ ᅩᄉ ᆼᄉ ᅡ ᆼᄒ ᅳ ᅡᄀ ᅩ, ᄉ ᆼᄌ ᅳ ᆷ 1ᄌ ᅥ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅦᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫᄒ ᅡ ᆨᄅ ᅪ ᆯᄋ ᅲ ᆫ 0.18ᄋ ᅳ ᅦᄉ ᅥ 0.60ᄋ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄉ ᆼᄉ ᅡ ᆼ ᅳ ᅡᄆ ᄒ ᅳᅩ ᄅᄌ ᆫᄎ ᅥ ᅦᄉ ᆼᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅦᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄂ ᆫ 0.435+0.42=0.855 ᄃ ᅳ ᆫᄃ ᅬ ᅡ. 나. 실점한 경우 ᆼᅥ ᅳ ᄉ ᆷ ᄌ 3ᄋ ᅦᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫᄒ ᅡ ᆨᄅ ᅪ ᆯᄋ ᅲ ᆫᄀ ᅳ ᅥᄋ ᅴᄇ ᆫᄃ ᅧ ᆼᄋ ᅩ ᅵᄋ ᆹᄋ ᅥ ᅳᄂ ᅡ, ᄉ ᆼᄌ ᅳ ᆷ 1ᄋ ᅥ ᅦᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫᄒ ᅡ ᆨᄅ ᅪ ᆯᄋ ᅲ ᅵ 0.18ᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥ 0.03ᄋ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄀ ᆷᄉ ᅡ ᅩᄒ ᅡᄆ ᅳᄅ ᅩ 0.15 ᆼᄌ ᅳ ᄉ ᆷᅩ ᅥ ᄃᄀ ᆷᄉ ᅡ ᅩᄒ ᆫᄃ ᅡ ᅡ..
(9) Contribution analysis of scoring in the soccer game: Using decision tree. 1393. Figure 3.6 Decision tree of fourth goal from 1:2. 4. 연구결과 4.1. 득점에 대한 기여도 비교 ᅩᄃ ᄂ ᅳ 1ᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄇ ᅩᄂ ᆫᄇ ᅳ ᅡᅪ ᄋᄀ ᇀᄋ ᅡ ᅵᄎ ᆺᄀ ᅥ ᆯᄋ ᅩ ᅦᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫᄉ ᅡ ᆼᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅴᄀ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄂ ᆫ 2.0ᄋ ᅳ ᅵᄃ ᅡ. ᄂ ᅩᄃ ᅳ 35ᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄃ ᅮᄇ ᆫᄍ ᅥ ᅢᄃ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄋ ᆫ ᅵ ᄒᄋ ᅡ ᅧ 2:0ᄋ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄌ ᆫᄒ ᅵ ᆼᄃ ᅢ ᆫᄀ ᅬ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄋ ᅵᄀ ᆫᄀ ᅵ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᅮᄀ ᅡ 0.9ᄅ ᅩᄉ ᆼᄌ ᅳ ᆷ 3ᄋ ᅥ ᅦᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄂ ᆫ 2.7ᄋ ᅳ ᅵᄅ ᅡᄒ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᅮᄋ ᆻᄋ ᅵ ᅳᄂ ᅡᄂ ᅩᄃ ᅳ 1ᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᅵ ᄋᄆ ᅵ 2.0ᄋ ᆯᄒ ᅳ ᆨᄇ ᅪ ᅩᄒ ᆻᄋ ᅢ ᅳᄆ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄉ ᆯᄌ ᅵ ᆯᄌ ᅵ ᆨᆫ ᅥ ᄋ ᅵᄀ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄂ ᆫ 0.7ᄋ ᅳ ᅵᄅ ᅡᄒ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᅮᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅵ ᅡ. ᄂ ᅩᄃ ᅳ 46ᄋ ᅴ 2:0ᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥ 3:0ᄋ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄀ ᅨ ᆨᄌ ᅩ ᄉ ᆫᅢ ᅵ ᄒᄃ ᆼ ᆫᄀ ᅬ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄂ ᆫᄉ ᅳ ᆼᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅦᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄂ ᆫ 3.0ᄋ ᅳ ᅵᄂ ᅡ 2:0ᄁ ᅡᄌ ᅵᄋ ᅵᄆ ᅵᄒ ᆨᄇ ᅪ ᅩᄃ ᆫᄉ ᅬ ᆼᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅵ 2.7ᄋ ᅵᄆ ᅳᄅ ᅩ 0.3ᄋ ᅵᄅ ᅡᄇ ᆯ ᅩ ᅮᄋ ᄉ ᆻᅡ ᅵ ᄃ. Table 4.1 Comparison contribution by scoring sequence node. score. winning probability. 1 35 46. 1:0 2:0 3:0. 0.66 0.901 1.00. contribution to winning 2.0 2.7 3.0. actual contribution 2.0 0.7 0.3. 4.2. 득점과 실점으로 인한 동점골의 기여도 느 ᅩ ᄃ 36ᄋ ᅴ 1:1 ᄀ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᅮᄂ ᆫ 1:0ᄋ ᅳ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄉ ᆯᄌ ᅵ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄒ ᅳ ᅥᄋ ᆼᄒ ᅭ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᆺᄋ ᅥ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄀ ᅨᄉ ᆨᄌ ᅩ ᆫᄒ ᅵ ᆼᄃ ᅢ ᆫᄀ ᅬ ᅦᄋ ᆷᄋ ᅵ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄋ ᅵᄀ ᆫᄒ ᅵ ᆨᄅ ᅪ ᆯᄋ ᅲ ᅵ 0.32ᄅ ᅩᄂ ᅩ ᅳ 1ᄇ ᄃ ᅩᄃ ᅡ 0.34 ᄀ ᆷᄉ ᅡ ᅩᄒ ᆫᄃ ᅡ ᅡ. ᄄ ᅡᄅ ᅡᄉ ᅥᄉ ᆼᄌ ᅳ ᆷ 3ᄋ ᅥ ᅦᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄃ ᅩ -1.04 ᄀ ᆷᄉ ᅡ ᅩᄒ ᆫᄃ ᅡ ᅡ. 1:1ᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄃ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄒ ᅳ ᅢᄉ ᅥ 2:1ᄋ ᅵ ᆫᄀ ᅬ ᄃ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᅮᄋ ᅴᄉ ᆼᄅ ᅳ ᅵᄒ ᆨᄅ ᅪ ᆯᄋ ᅲ ᆫ 0.82ᄅ ᅳ ᅩ 0.5ᄀ ᅡᄌ ᆼᄀ ᅳ ᅡᄒ ᅡᄋ ᅧᄎ ᆺᄃ ᅥ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄄ ᅥ ᅢ 0.67ᄇ ᅩᄃ ᅡᄂ ᆫ 0.17 ᄂ ᅳ ᆽᄋ ᅡ ᆻᄃ ᅡ ᅡ. ᄂ ᅩᄃ ᅳ 53ᄋ ᅴ 2:2 ᄀ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᅮ ᆫ 2:0ᄋ ᅳ ᄂ ᅦᄉ ᅥ 2:1, ᄀ ᅳᄅ ᅵᄀ ᅩᄎ ᅮᄀ ᅡᄉ ᆯᄌ ᅵ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅴᄀ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᅮᄅ ᅩᄉ ᆼᄅ ᅳ ᅵᄒ ᆨᄅ ᅪ ᆯᄋ ᅲ ᅵ 0.73ᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥ 0.24ᄅ ᅩ 0.5 ᄀ ᆷᄉ ᅡ ᅩᄒ ᆫᄃ ᅡ ᅡ. ᄂ ᅩᄃ ᅳ 56ᄋ ᅴᄀ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᅮ 1:1ᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥ 2:1, ᄀ ᅳᄅ ᅵᄀ ᅩᄉ ᆯᄌ ᅵ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄒ ᅳ ᅡᄋ ᅧ 2:2 ᄀ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᅮᄅ ᅩᄉ ᆼᄅ ᅳ ᅵᄒ ᆨᄅ ᅪ ᆯᄋ ᅲ ᅵ 0.82ᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥ 0.32ᄅ ᅩ 0.5 ᄀ ᆷᄉ ᅡ ᅩᄒ ᆫᄃ ᅡ ᅡ. ᄂ ᅩᄃ ᅳ 59ᄋ ᅴ 2:2 ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᄀ ᅮᄂ ᆫ 1:2ᄋ ᅳ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄃ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄒ ᅳ ᅡᄋ ᅧ 2:2ᄅ ᅩᄃ ᆫᄀ ᅬ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᅮᄅ ᅩᄉ ᆼᄅ ᅳ ᅵᄒ ᆨᄅ ᅪ ᆯᄋ ᅲ ᆫ 0.085ᄋ ᅳ ᅦᄉ ᅥ 0.23ᄅ ᅩ 0.145ᄅ ᅩᄌ ᆼᄀ ᅳ ᅡᄒ ᅡᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅧ ᅡ. ᄇ ᆫᄆ ᅡ ᆫ ᅧ ᅢᄒ ᄑ ᆯᄒ ᅡ ᆨᄅ ᅪ ᆯᄋ ᅲ ᆫ 0.74ᄋ ᅳ ᅦᄉ ᅥ 0.16ᄋ ᅳᄅ ᅩ 0.58 ᄀ ᆷᄉ ᅡ ᅩᄒ ᅡᄀ ᅩᄇ ᅵᄀ ᆯᄒ ᅵ ᆨᄅ ᅪ ᆯᄋ ᅲ ᆫ 0.18ᄋ ᅳ ᅦᄉ ᅥ 0.60ᄋ ᅳᄅ ᅩ 0.42 ᄌ ᆼᄀ ᅳ ᅡᄒ ᅡᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅧ ᅡ..
(10) 1394. Dae Kee Min. Table 4.2 Comparison contribution by scoring sequence in tie score node. score. 36 53 56 59. 1:1 2:2 2:2 2:2. winning probability 0.32 0.24 0.32 0.23. contribution to winning 0.96 0.72 0.96 0.69. actual contribution -1.04 -1.5 -1.5 0.441. goals scored and lost lost lost lost scored. 4.3. 선제골, 동점골, 역전골의 기여도 비교 ᆫᄌ ᅥ ᄉ ᅦ, ᄃ ᆼᄌ ᅩ ᆷ, ᄋ ᅥ ᆨᅥ ᅧ ᆫ ᄌᄃ ᆼᄆ ᅳ ᅩᄃ ᆫᄀ ᅳ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᅮᄋ ᅴᄀ ᆯᄋ ᅩ ᅵᄇ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᆼᄒ ᅢ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄂ ᆫ Table 4.3ᄋ ᅳ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄋ ᆫᄀ ᅥ ᆸᄒ ᅳ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᆺᄋ ᅥ ᅵᄋ ᅲᄋ ᆯᄒ ᅵ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᅮᄋ ᅵᄃ ᅡ. ᄇᄅ ᅵ ᆨᅡ ᅩ ᄆᄌ ᅵᄆ ᆨᄀ ᅡ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄀ ᆯᄀ ᅧ ᅪ 3:2ᄋ ᅴᄀ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᅮᄀ ᅡ 8ᄇ ᆫᄇ ᅥ ᆩᄋ ᅡ ᅦᄇ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᆼᄒ ᅢ ᅡᄌ ᅵᄋ ᆭᄋ ᅡ ᅡᄇ ᆫᄃ ᅵ ᅩᄀ ᅡᄂ ᆽᄋ ᅡ ᅡᄋ ᆯᄇ ᅵ ᆫᄒ ᅡ ᅪᄒ ᅡᄀ ᅵᄂ ᆫᄋ ᅳ ᅥᄅ ᆸᄌ ᅧ ᅵᄆ ᆫ, ᄇ ᅡ ᆫᄉ ᅮ ᆨ ᅥ ᆯᄀ ᅧ ᄀ ᅪᆯ ᅵᄌ ᄉ ᅦᄀ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄂ ᆫ 2.41ᄅ ᅳ ᅩᄆ ᅩᄃ ᆫᄃ ᅳ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄌ ᅥ ᆼᄎ ᅮ ᅬᄀ ᅩᄂ ᇁᄀ ᅩ ᅦᄑ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅡᅬ ᄃᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅥ ᅡ. Table 4.3 Comparison contribution by scoring sequence in tie score node. score. 1 36 50 59 73. 1:0 1:1 1:2 2:2 3:2. winning probability 0.67 0.32 0.8.6 0.23 1.00. contribution to winning 2.0 0.96 0.25 0.69 3.0. actual contribution 2.0 -1.04 -0.71 0.44 2.41. goals scored and lost scored lost lost scored scored. 4.4. 2014년 팀순위와 첫 득점 ᆺᄇ ᅥ ᄎ ᆫᄍ ᅥ ᅢᄃ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅵᄀ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄃ ᅩᄀ ᅡᄂ ᇁᄀ ᅩ ᅩᄀ ᅡᄌ ᆼᄆ ᅡ ᆭᄋ ᅡ ᅵᄇ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᆼᄒ ᅢ ᅡᄆ ᅳᄅ ᅩ, ᄎ ᆺᄃ ᅥ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅦᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫᄇ ᅡ ᆫᄃ ᅵ ᅩᄉ ᅮᄋ ᅪᄉ ᆫᄋ ᅮ ᅱᄋ ᅪᄋ ᅴᄀ ᆫᄀ ᅪ ᅨᄅ ᆯᄉ ᅳ ᆯᄑ ᅡ ᅧ ᄇᄋ ᅩ ᆻᅡ ᅡ ᄃ. ᄋ ᅡᄅ ᅢᄑ ᅭᄂ ᆫ 2013ᄂ ᅳ ᆫ Kᄅ ᅧ ᅵᄀ ᅳᄀ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄀ ᆨᄐ ᅡ ᆷᄋ ᅵ ᅴᄎ ᆺᄃ ᅥ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅦᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫᄇ ᅡ ᆫᄃ ᅵ ᅩᄇ ᆫᄉ ᅮ ᆨᄀ ᅥ ᆯᄀ ᅧ ᅪᄋ ᅵᄃ ᅡ. ᄉ ᅥᄋ ᆯ, ᄉ ᅮ ᆼᄂ ᅥ ᆷ, ᄋ ᅡ ᆯ ᅮ ᆫ, ᄌ ᅡ ᄉ ᆫᅮ ᅥ ᆨ ᄇ, ᄑ ᅩᄒ ᆼᄃ ᅡ ᆼᄋ ᅳ ᅵ 20ᄒ ᅬᄋ ᅵᄉ ᆼᄋ ᅡ ᅵᄀ ᅩᄉ ᅮᄋ ᆫ, ᄇ ᅯ ᅮᄉ ᆫ, ᄌ ᅡ ᅦᄌ ᅮᄃ ᆼᄋ ᅳ ᅵ 18ᄒ ᅬᄅ ᆯᄀ ᅳ ᅵᄅ ᆨᄒ ᅩ ᆻᄃ ᅢ ᅡ. Table 4.4 Position and first goal frequency team. position. FCPS UHFC JBFC FCS SWSB IUFC PSFC SNFC JEJU JNFC GNFC DGFC GWFC DJFC. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14. opening goal frequency 20 24 22 21 18 15 18 20 18 16 13 10 14 14. percentile 8.23 9.88 9.05 8.64 7.41 6.17 7.41 8.23 7.41 6.58 5.35 4.12 5.76 5.76. Table 4.4ᄂ ᆫ 2013ᄂ ᅳ ᆫᄃ ᅧ ᅩᄐ ᆷᄉ ᅵ ᆫᄋ ᅮ ᅱᄇ ᆯᅥ ᅧ ᆫ ᄉᄌ ᅦᄃ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄇ ᅥ ᆫᄃ ᅵ ᅩᄅ ᆯᄌ ᅳ ᆼᄅ ᅥ ᅵᄒ ᆫᅥ ᅡ ᆺ ᄀᄋ ᅵᄃ ᅡ. Tableᄋ ᅴᄎ ᆺᅥ ᅥ ᆫ ᄇᄍ ᅢᄋ ᆯᄋ ᅧ ᆫᄑ ᅳ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄐ ᆷᄋ ᅵ ᅴᄋ ᅵ ᆷᄋ ᅳ ᄅ ᆯᄋ ᅳ ᆼᄆ ᅧ ᆫᄋ ᅮ ᆨᄌ ᅣ ᅡᄅ ᅩᄑ ᅭᄒ ᆫᄒ ᅡ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᆺᄋ ᅥ ᅵᄀ ᅩ, ᄃ ᅮᄇ ᆫᄍ ᅥ ᅢᄋ ᆯᄋ ᅧ ᆫ Kᄅ ᅳ ᅵᄀ ᅳᄉ ᆼᄌ ᅥ ᆨᄉ ᅥ ᆫᄋ ᅮ ᅱᄅ ᆯ, ᄉ ᅳ ᅦᄇ ᆫᄍ ᅥ ᅢᄋ ᆯᄋ ᅧ ᆫᄉ ᅳ ᆫᄌ ᅥ ᅦᄃ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅦᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫᄇ ᅡ ᆫᄃ ᅵ ᅩ.
(11) Contribution analysis of scoring in the soccer game: Using decision tree. 1395. ᄅ, ᄂ ᆯ ᅳ ᅦᄇ ᆫᄍ ᅥ ᅢᄋ ᆯᄋ ᅧ ᆫᄉ ᅳ ᆼᄃ ᅡ ᅢᄇ ᆫᄃ ᅵ ᅩᄅ ᆯᄑ ᅳ ᅥᄉ ᆫᄐ ᅦ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄂ ᅡᄐ ᅡᄂ ᆻᄃ ᅢ ᅡ. ᄀ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄃ ᆼᄉ ᅡ ᆫᄌ ᅥ ᅦᄃ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄑ ᅥ ᅥᄉ ᆫᄐ ᅦ ᅳᄅ ᆯᄇ ᅳ ᅩᄆ ᆫᄋ ᅧ ᆯᄉ ᅮ ᆫᄒ ᅡ ᆫᄃ ᅧ ᅢᄀ ᅡ 9.88ᄅ ᅩᄀ ᅡ ᆼᄂ ᅡ ᄌ ᇁᄀ ᅩ ᅩ, ᄌ ᆫᄇ ᅥ ᆨ, ᄋ ᅮ ᆯᄉ ᅮ ᆫᄉ ᅡ ᆫᄋ ᅮ ᅵᄃ ᅡ. ᄉ ᅮᄋ ᆫᄉ ᅯ ᆷᄉ ᅡ ᆼᄋ ᅥ ᅴᄀ ᆼᄋ ᅧ ᅮᄑ ᅥᄉ ᆫᄐ ᅦ ᅳᄀ ᅡ 8.23 ᄉ ᆫᄋ ᅮ ᅱᄋ ᆯᄃ ᅵ ᆼᄋ ᅳ ᆫᄑ ᅵ ᅩᄒ ᆼᄀ ᅡ ᅪᄀ ᇀᄌ ᅡ ᅵᄆ ᆫᄉ ᅡ ᆫᄋ ᅮ ᅱᄂ ᆫ 8ᄋ ᅳ ᅱᄋ ᅦ ᅱᄎ ᄋ ᅵᄒ ᆫᄃ ᅡ ᅡ. ᄃ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄅ ᅥ ᆨᄋ ᅧ ᅦᄇ ᅵᄒ ᅡᄋ ᅧᄉ ᅮᄇ ᅵᄅ ᆨᄋ ᅧ ᅵᄋ ᆨᅡ ᅣ ᆫ ᄒᄀ ᆺᄋ ᅥ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄋ ᅨᄎ ᆨᄃ ᅳ ᆫᄃ ᅬ ᅡ. Figure 4.1ᄂ ᆫ Table 4.4ᄅ ᅳ ᆯᄃ ᅳ ᅩᄑ ᅭᄅ ᅩᄂ ᅡᄐ ᅡᄂ ᆫ ᅢ ᆺᄋ ᅥ ᄀ ᅵᄃ ᅡ. ᄇ ᅩᄂ ᆫᄇ ᅳ ᅡᅪ ᄋᄀ ᇀᄋ ᅡ ᅵᄉ ᆫᄋ ᅮ ᅱᄋ ᅪᄉ ᆫᄌ ᅥ ᅦᄀ ᆯᄋ ᅩ ᅴᄑ ᅥᄉ ᆫᄐ ᅦ ᅳᄂ ᆫᄃ ᅳ ᅢᄎ ᅦᄌ ᆨᄋ ᅥ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄇ ᆫᄇ ᅡ ᅵᄅ ᅨᄒ ᆫᄃ ᅡ ᅡ. ᄉ ᆫᄌ ᅥ ᅦᄀ ᆯᄋ ᅩ ᅴᄑ ᅥᄉ ᆫᄐ ᅦ ᅳᄀ ᅡᄂ ᇁᅳ ᅩ ᆯ ᄋᄉ ᅮ ᆨᄉ ᅩ ᄅ ᆫᅱ ᅮ ᄋᄅ ᆯᄂ ᅳ ᅡᄐ ᅡᄂ ᅢᄂ ᆫ Xᄎ ᅳ ᆨᄋ ᅮ ᅴᄌ ᅪᄎ ᆨᄋ ᅳ ᅦᄑ ᅭᄉ ᅵᅬ ᄃᄋ ᅥᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅵ ᅡ. ᄉ ᆼᄀ ᅡ ᆫᄇ ᅪ ᆫᄉ ᅮ ᆨᄀ ᅥ ᆯᄀ ᅧ ᅪᄉ ᆫᅧ ᅥ ᆼ ᄒᄋ ᆯᄀ ᅳ ᅡᄌ ᆼᄒ ᅥ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᅨᄉ ᅮᄂ ᆫ -0.83, ᄉ ᅳ ᆫᄋ ᅮ ᅱᄉ ᆼ ᅡ ᆫᄀ ᅪ ᄀ ᅨᄉ ᅮᄂ ᆫ 0.85ᄅ ᅳ ᅩᄆ ᅩᄃ ᅮᄋ ᅲᄋ ᅴᄒ ᅡᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅧ ᅡ. ᄋ ᅵᄀ ᆯᄀ ᅧ ᅪᄅ ᆯᄐ ᅳ ᆼᄒ ᅩ ᅢᄉ ᅥᄉ ᆫᄌ ᅥ ᅦᄀ ᆯᄀ ᅩ ᅪᄐ ᆷᄋ ᅵ ᅴᄉ ᆼᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅦᄃ ᅢᄒ ᆫᄋ ᅡ ᆫᄀ ᅧ ᆫᄉ ᅪ ᆼᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄒ ᅳ ᆨᄋ ᅪ ᆫᄒ ᅵ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᅮ ᆻᄋ ᅵ ᄋ ᆻᅡ ᅥ ᄃ.. Figure 4.1 Position and percentile scatter plot. 4.5. 결론 및 향후 연구 과제 ᅩᄃ ᄆ ᆫᄉ ᅳ ᅳᄑ ᅩᄎ ᅳᄀ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄋ ᅦᄂ ᆫᅮ ᅳ ᆫ ᄂᄋ ᅦᄇ ᅩᄋ ᅵᄌ ᅵᄋ ᆭᄂ ᅡ ᆫᄀ ᅳ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄒ ᅳᄅ ᆷᄋ ᅳ ᅵᄋ ᆻᄀ ᅵ ᅩ, ᄀ ᅳᄒ ᅳᄅ ᆷᅳ ᅳ ᆯ ᄋᄋ ᅥᄄ ᇂᄀ ᅥ ᅦᄋ ᅵᄋ ᅥᄀ ᅡᄂ ᅳᄂ ᅣᄋ ᅦᄄ ᅡᄅ ᅡᅬ ᄎᄌ ᆼ ᅩ ᄉᄇ ᆼ ᅳ ᅮᄀ ᅡᄀ ᆯᅥ ᅧ ᆼ ᄌᄃ ᆫᄃ ᅬ ᅡ. ᄐ ᆨᄒ ᅳ ᅵᄉ ᅵᄀ ᆫᄋ ᅡ ᅦᄌ ᅦᄒ ᆫᅥ ᅡ ᆹ ᄋᄋ ᅵᄒ ᆫᄒ ᅡ ᅬᄋ ᅦᄃ ᅢᄅ ᆼᄃ ᅣ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄒ ᅥ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᅮᄋ ᆻᄂ ᅵ ᆫᄋ ᅳ ᅣᄀ ᅮᅪ ᄋᄃ ᆯᄅ ᅡ ᅵᄎ ᆨᄀ ᅮ ᅮ, ᄒ ᅡᄏ ᅵ, ᄒ ᆫᄃ ᅢ ᅳᄇ ᆯ ᅩ ᆼᄀ ᅳ ᄃ ᅪᄀ ᇀᄋ ᅡ ᅵᄌ ᅦᄒ ᆫᄃ ᅡ ᆫᄉ ᅬ ᅵᄀ ᆫᄋ ᅡ ᅦᄒ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᆯ, ᄒ ᅩ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᆯᄅ ᅩ ᅩᄀ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄅ ᆯᄋ ᅳ ᅵᄋ ᅥᄀ ᅡᄂ ᆫᄀ ᅳ ᅮᄀ ᅵᄌ ᆼᄆ ᅩ ᆨᄋ ᅩ ᆫᅧ ᅵ ᆼ ᄀᄋ ᅮᄂ ᆫᄀ ᅳ ᆨᄀ ᅡ ᆯᄋ ᅩ ᅴᄉ ᆼᄒ ᅡ ᆼᄋ ᅪ ᅦᄄ ᅡᄅ ᆫᄌ ᅳ ᆫᄉ ᅥ ᆯ ᅮ ᆨᄇ ᅥ ᄌ ᆫᄒ ᅧ ᅪᄀ ᅡᄑ ᆯᄋ ᅵ ᅭᄒ ᅡᄀ ᅩᄉ ᆼᄒ ᅡ ᆼᄋ ᅪ ᅦᄃ ᅢᄎ ᅥᄒ ᅡᄂ ᆫᄉ ᅳ ᆫᄉ ᅥ ᅮᄃ ᆯᄋ ᅳ ᅴᄉ ᆷᄅ ᅵ ᅵᄌ ᆨᄋ ᅥ ᆫᄉ ᅵ ᆼᄐ ᅡ ᅢᄀ ᅡᄀ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄋ ᅦᄆ ᅵᄎ ᅵᄂ ᆫᄋ ᅳ ᆼᄒ ᅧ ᆼᄋ ᅣ ᅵᄏ ᅳᄃ ᅡ. ᄀ ᅳᄅ ᅢᄉ ᅥᄎ ᆨ ᅮ ᅮᄋ ᄀ ᅪᅵ ᄇᄉ ᆺᄒ ᅳ ᅡᄀ ᅦᄉ ᆼᄑ ᅳ ᅢᄅ ᆯᄀ ᅳ ᆯᅥ ᅧ ᆼ ᄌᄒ ᅡᄂ ᆫᄋ ᅳ ᅡᄋ ᅵᄉ ᅳᄒ ᅡᄏ ᅵᅪ ᄋᄀ ᇀᄋ ᅡ ᆫᄌ ᅳ ᆼᄆ ᅩ ᆨᄋ ᅩ ᅴᄋ ᆫᄀ ᅧ ᅮᄀ ᆯᄀ ᅧ ᅪᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄃ ᅩᄉ ᆫᄌ ᅥ ᅦᄀ ᆯᄋ ᅩ ᅵᄀ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄀ ᆯᄀ ᅧ ᅪᄋ ᅦᄆ ᅵᄎ ᅵᄂ ᆫ ᅳ ᆼᄒ ᅧ ᄋ ᆼᅳ ᅣ ᆫ ᄋᄆ ᅢᄋ ᅮᄏ ᅳᄀ ᅩ, ᄀ ᅳᄏ ᅳᄀ ᅵᄂ ᆫᄋ ᅳ ᅵᄇ ᆫᄋ ᅥ ᆫᄀ ᅧ ᅮᄀ ᆯᄀ ᅧ ᅪᄋ ᅪᄇ ᅵᄉ ᆺᄒ ᅳ ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᆺᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄒ ᅳ ᆨᄋ ᅪ ᆫᄒ ᅵ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᅮᄋ ᆻᄋ ᅵ ᆻᄃ ᅥ ᅡ. ᄇ ᆫᄋ ᅩ ᆫᄀ ᅧ ᅮᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄒ ᆯᄋ ᅪ ᆼᄒ ᅭ ᆫᄉ ᅡ ᆫᄎ ᅮ ᅡ ᆨᄋ ᅥ ᄌ ᅴᄉ ᅡᄀ ᆯᄌ ᅧ ᆼᄇ ᅥ ᆼᄇ ᅡ ᆸᄋ ᅥ ᆫᄀ ᅳ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄋ ᅴᄃ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄉ ᅥ ᆼᄒ ᅡ ᆼᄋ ᅪ ᆯᅮ ᅳ ᆫ ᄇᄉ ᆨᄒ ᅥ ᅡᄂ ᆫᄃ ᅳ ᅦᄒ ᆨᄉ ᅢ ᆷᄌ ᅵ ᆨᄋ ᅥ ᆫᄋ ᅵ ᆨᄒ ᅧ ᆯᄋ ᅡ ᆯᄒ ᅳ ᅡᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅧ ᅡ. 1060ᄀ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄅ ᆯᄌ ᅳ ᆫᄒ ᅵ ᆼᄃ ᅢ ᅬᄂ ᆫᄉ ᅳ ᆼᄒ ᅡ ᆼ ᅪ ᅦᄄ ᄋ ᅡᄅ ᅡᄌ ᆼᄅ ᅥ ᅵᄒ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᅮᄐ ᆼᄀ ᅩ ᅨᄌ ᆨᄇ ᅥ ᆫᄉ ᅮ ᆨᄇ ᅥ ᆼᄇ ᅡ ᆸᄋ ᅥ ᅵᄅ ᅡᄒ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᅮᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅵ ᅡ. ᄋ ᅵᄇ ᆫᅧ ᅥ ᆫ ᄋᄀ ᅮᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄂ ᆫᄌ ᅳ ᅡᄅ ᅭᄇ ᆫᄉ ᅮ ᆨᄋ ᅥ ᅦᄃ ᆨᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄋ ᅥ ᅵᄇ ᆯᄉ ᅡ ᆼᄒ ᅢ ᆫᄉ ᅡ ᅵᄀ ᆫ ᅡ ᅪᄀ ᄀ ᅵᄐ ᅡᄀ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄋ ᅧᄀ ᆫᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄀ ᅳ ᅩᄅ ᅧᄒ ᅡᄌ ᅵᄆ ᆺᄒ ᅩ ᆫᄋ ᅡ ᅡᄉ ᅱᄋ ᆷᄋ ᅮ ᅵᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅵ ᅡ. ᄋ ᅵᄅ ᆯᄋ ᅳ ᅱᄒ ᅢᄉ ᅥᄂ ᆫᄌ ᅳ ᆷᄃ ᅩ ᅥᄀ ᇁᄋ ᅵ ᅵᄋ ᆻᄂ ᅵ ᆫᄌ ᅳ ᅡᄅ ᅭᄎ ᅥᄅ ᅵᄀ ᅡᄑ ᆯᄋ ᅵ ᅭᄒ ᅡ ᅧ, ᄎ ᄋ ᆼᅮ ᅮ ᆫ ᄇᄒ ᆫᄉ ᅡ ᅵᄀ ᆫᄋ ᅡ ᆯᄀ ᅳ ᆽᄀ ᅡ ᅩᄌ ᆸᄀ ᅥ ᆫᄒ ᅳ ᆯᄆ ᅡ ᆫᄌ ᅮ ᅦᄅ ᅡᄉ ᆼᄀ ᅢ ᆨᅡ ᅡ ᆫ ᄒᄃ ᅡ. ᄒ ᆼᄒ ᅣ ᅮᄋ ᆫᄀ ᅧ ᅮᄋ ᅦᄉ ᅥᄂ ᆫᄎ ᅳ ᆨᄀ ᅮ ᅮᄀ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄀ ᆯᄀ ᅧ ᅪᄋ ᅦᄋ ᆼᄒ ᅧ ᆼᄋ ᅣ ᆯᄆ ᅳ ᅵᄎ ᅵᄂ ᆫᅩ ᅳ ᆷ ᄒᄐ ᆷ ᅵ ᅧᄇ ᄋ ᅮᄋ ᅪᄌ ᆫᄉ ᅥ ᆯᄋ ᅮ ᅦᄋ ᆼᄒ ᅧ ᆼᄋ ᅣ ᆯᄆ ᅳ ᅵᄎ ᅵᄂ ᆫᄀ ᅳ ᆼᄀ ᅧ ᅵᄉ ᅵᄀ ᆫᄃ ᅡ ᆼᅳ ᅳ ᆯ ᄋᄀ ᅩᄅ ᅧᄒ ᅡᄋ ᅧᄉ ᅦᄇ ᅮᄌ ᆨᄋ ᅥ ᅳᄅ ᅩᄇ ᆫᄉ ᅮ ᆨᄋ ᅥ ᆯᄉ ᅳ ᅵᄃ ᅩᄒ ᅢᄋ ᅣᄒ ᆯᄑ ᅡ ᆯᄋ ᅵ ᅭᄀ ᅡᄋ ᆻᄃ ᅵ ᅡ..
(12) 1396. Dae Kee Min. References Bunker, R. P., and Thabtah, F.(2017). A machine learning framework for sport result prediction. Applied Computing and Informatics Online. Heo, Y. S., and Kim, K. H. (2018). Analysis of K-league data using bivariate Poisson and diagonal inflated model. Journal of the Korean Data & Information Science Society, 29, 1643-1653. Karlis, D., and Ntzoufras, I. (2008). Bayesian modelling of football outcomes: Using the Skellam’s distribution for the goal difference. Journal of Management Mathematics, 133-145. Kim, N. J., and Min, D. K. (2014). The study of changes in performance in KLPGA using growth curve analysis. Journal of the Korean Data & Information Science Society, 25, 847-855. Lee, J. T. (2014). Soccer goal distributions in K-league. Journal of the Korean Data & Information Science Society, 25, 1231-1239. Michalis, M., and Armatas, V. (2014). Analysis of goal scoring pattern in the 2012 European Football Championship. The Sport Journal. Min, D. K., Lee, Y. S., and Kim, Y. R. (2015). Performance analysis of football matches. Journal of the Korean Data & Information Science Society, 26, 187-196. Na, J., and Hwang, E. (2018). Betting strategiesfor quiz game in question-and answer system. Journal of the Korean Data & Information Science Society, 29, 415-424. Shin, S. K., Cho, Y. J., and Cho, Y. S. (2009). A study on point per game using scored goal per game and lossed goal per game in the union of European football professional league. Journal of the Korean Data & Information Science Society, 20, 837-844..
(13) Journal of the Korean Data & Information Science Society 2019, 30(6), 1385–1397. http://dx.doi.org/10.7465/jkdi.2019.30.6.1385 ᆫᄀ ᅡ ᄒ ᆨᄃ ᅮ ᅦᄋ ᅵᄐ ᅥᄌ ᆼᄇ ᅥ ᅩᄀ ᅪᄒ ᆨᄒ ᅡ ᅬᄌ ᅵ. Contribution analysis of scoring in the soccer game: †. Using decision tree Dae Kee Min1 1. Department of Statistics and Information, Duksung Women’s University Received 19 July 2019, revised 15 September 2019, accepted 29 September 2019. Abstract In soccer games, scoring is a very important factor in determining the team’s winning and ranking. Depending on the situation of the game, the contribution of each score to the winning game in soccer can vary. Even if each player scores a different number of goals in a particular game, the tactics of the game can vary depending on the situation, and the psychological aspect can dominate the game. In this study, we used the K - league games played between 2013 and 2017 to study the contribution of the goal of winning the game. Keywords: Conditional probability, contribution, correlation, decision tree.. † 1. This study was supported by the 2018 Duksung Women’s University grant. Professor, Department of Statistics and Information, Duksung Women’s University, Seoul 132714, Korea. E-mail : [email protected].
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