Council meeting, 9 October 2012
LATEST LABOUR MARKET DEVELOPMENTS AND SOME POLICY CHALLENGES, OCTOBER 2012
John P. Martin
Director for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs OECD
Council
9 October 2012
Wide dispersion in unemployment rates and no sign of convergence
Unemployment rates
abefore the crisis, at its peak and its latest value
b%
16 20 24 28
Pre-crisis trough Peak Latest
0 4 8 12
2 Note: Countries are shown in ascending order by the unemployment rate at its peak.
*: Information on data for Israel: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932315602.
a) For Israel and Portugal, the series have been chained to take into account the breaks in the LFS series of the years 2012 and 2011, respectively.
b) Trough (peak) dates are defined as the start of the longest spell of consecutive increase (decrease) of the quarterly unemployment rates since 2007 Q4.
Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD Short-Term Indicators Database (Cut-off date: 5 October 2010).
Youth have been hit particularly hard by the crisis
Youth unemployment rates,
aDecember 2007-August 2012
b%
30 35 40 45 50 55
60
December 2007 August 2012
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
3 Note: Countries are shown by ascending order of the youth unemployment rate in August 2012.
*: Information on data for Israel: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932315602.
a) For Israel and Portugal, the series have been chained to take into account the breaks in the LFS series of the years 2012 and 2011, respectively.
b) June 2012 for Estonia, Greece, Italy, Slovenia, Turkey and the United Kingdom; July 2012 for Chile, G7, Hungary, Korea, Mexico, Norway and the OECD average; September 2012 for the United States; 2012 Q1 for Switzerland and 2012 Q2 for New Zealand.
Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD Short-Term Indicators Database (Cut-off date: 5 October 2012).
Long-term unemployment has risen in most countries, but sharp hikes are confined to only a few
Percentage of unemployment,
a2007 Q4 and 2012 Q2
b%
40 50 60 70 80
2007 Q4 2012 Q2
0 10 20 30
4 Note: Countries are shown by ascending order of the incidence of long-term unemployment in 2012 Q2.
*: Information on data for Israel: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932315602.
a) Data are not seasonally adjusted but smoothed using three-quarter moving averages. OECD is the weighted average of 32 OECD countries excluding Chile and Korea. For Israel and Portugal, the series have been chained to take into account the breaks in the LFS series of the years 2012 and 2011, respectively b) 2011 Q4 for Israel; 2012 Q3 for the United States
Source: OECD calculations based on the national labour force surveys.(Cut-off date: 5 October 2012).
Employment growth in the recovery has been anaemic and turned negative again in the Euro area and Japan
% change (quarter-on-quarter) of non-agricultural dependent employment
Euro area United States Japan
0 0.5
%1
0 0.5
%1
0 0.5
%1
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0
2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0
2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0
5 -2 -2
Source: OECD estimates based on Eurostat, Quarterly National Accounts, Japan Statistics Labour Force Survey results, and BLS, Current Employment Statistics (Cut-off date: 5 October 2010).
Moreover, the incidence of part-time work has risen as more people are working part-time involuntarily
Share of part-time employment in total employment, base 100 in 2007
Major OECD economies Countries hit particularly hard by the Euro Crisis
125 130 135
Euro area European Union
France Germany
Italy United Kingdom
United States
120 125 130 135
Euro area European Union
Greece Ireland
Portugal Spain
95 100 105 110 115 120
95 100 105 110 115 120
6 90
95
2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1
90
2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1
Source: OECD calculations based on the European Union labour Force Survey (EULFS) and the Current Population Survey (CPS) for the United States. Cut- off date: 2 October 2012.
Temporary workers have been the first to lose their jobs but also among the first to be hired
Share of temporary employment in total employment (base 100 in 2007)
Major OECD economies Countries hit particularly hard by the Euro Crisis
105 110
Euro area European Union
France Germany
Italy United Kingdom
100 110 120
Euro area European Union
Greece Ireland
Portugal Spain
95 100
70 80 90 100
7 Source: OECD calculations based on the European Union labour Force Survey (EULFS). Cut-off date: 2 October 2012.
90
2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1
60
2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1
Thank you Thank you
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