The Effect of Weather Conditions on Transit Ridership

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* Ğʑݡ⦺Ʊ ݡ⦺ᬱ ᕾᔍŝᱶ᳙ᨦ Ŗ⦺ᕾᔍ ([email protected])

Received September 17, 2013/ revised September 30, 2013/ accepted October 5, 2013

Copyright ⵑ 2013 by the Korean Society of Civil Engineers

ǣǣȀȀǤǤȀͳͲǤͳʹ͸ͷʹȀǤʹͲͳ͵Ǥ͵͵Ǥ͸ǤʹͶͶ͹ ǤǤǤ

Ꮾ♿⸮ሲⴲ#ᢾ⻏ጎ㝳⟖ⱒ⮎#↶㐖ᡒ#⮿㭣⮎#ኾ㬚#⮮ጪ

ౖঃ׆ȵଲஂ෹ȵૈ਎ผ

Choi, Sang Gi, Rhee, Jong Ho, Oh, Seung Hwoon

The Effect of Weather Conditions on Transit Ridership

ABSTRACT

In this study, the effects of weather conditions such as rainfall, discomfort index, snowfall, and sensible temperature on public transport demand in Seoul were analyzed using statistical data. The reasons were also derived from the survey. The data for the analysis were collected over the weekdays and weekends, and seasonal data of summer and winter were also gathered separately. Rainfall amount, discomfort index, and sensible temperature except snowfall amount, whose samples were insufficient, decreased the public transport demand by 2-7%. Rainfall amount and sensible temperature were statistically significant. Correlation analysis also showed that rainfall amount and sensible temperature are highly correlated with the demand. To find the reasons, the survey was conducted on citizens living in the Seoul Metropolitan Area. About 30% of the respondents wished to give up using bus when rainfall was heavy or temperature was low. On the contrary, auto and subway users increased by 10%. The results of this study could be used as the basic data when the public transportation planning or operation related policies according to the weather condition are concerned.

Key words : Weather condition, Bus demand, Subway demand

Ⅹಾ

ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵vᬑ, ᇩ⏭ḡᙹ, vᖅ, ℕq᪉॒ࠥ4aḡʑᔢ᳑ÕᯕݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵ᨱᨕਅᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹۵ḡšಉ☖ĥᯱഭෝᯕᬊ⧕ᇥᕾᮥᝅ᜽

⦹Ł, ᖅྙ᳑ᔍෝ☖⧕əᯕᮁෝࠥ⇽⦹ᩡ݅. ༉ुᯱഭ۵ᯝ݉᭥ಽᙹḲ⦹ᩡŁ, ⠪ᯝ-ᵝัŝᩍ෥-ĉᬙಽǍᇥ⦹ᩍᇥᕾᮥᝅ᜽⦹ᩡ݅. ᇥᕾ

đŝ, ᔹ⥭ᙹaᇡ᳒⦽vᖅᮥᱽ᫙⦹Ł۵vᬑ, ᇩ⏭ḡᙹ, ℕq᪉ࠥ᮹ʑᔢ᳑ÕᯕݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵ෝ᧞27% qᗭ᜽┅۵äᮝಽӹ┡ԍ݅. ᙹ

᫵᮹qᗭ⡎ᯕ☖ĥᱢᮝಽᮁ᮹⦽ḡ᦭ᦥᅕʑ᭥⧕t-áᱶᮥᝅ᜽⦹ᩡ۵ߑ, ᯕᵲvᬑ᪡ℕq᪉ࠥa☖ĥᱢᮝಽᮁ᮹⦹݅۵đŝෝ᨜ᨩ݅. ᔢ šᇥᕾđŝࠥvᬑ᪡ℕq᪉ࠥ2aḡḡ⢽aᔢݡᱢᮝಽ׳ᮡᔢššĥෝӹ┡ԩᮝ໑, ᧝᫙ᨱי⇽ࡹᨕᯩ۵ქᜅaḡ⦹℁ᨱእ⧕׳ᮡᔢš šĥෝᅕᩡ݅. əญŁ☖ĥᱢᮝಽᮁ᮹⦽đŝaӹ᪉vᬑ᪡ℕq᪉ࠥ, 2aḡḡ⢽ᨱš⦽ᖅྙᮥᝅ᜽⦹ᩡ݅. ᙹࠥǭᨱÑᵝ⦹۵ᯝၹ᜽ၝᮥ

ݡᔢᮝಽᖅྙᮥᝅ᜽⦽đŝ, ⠪ᔢ᜽ᨱ᮲ݖᯱᵲ᧞50%aქᜅෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩡ۵ߑ, ᯕᵲvᬑaၽᔾ⦹Ñӹℕq᪉ࠥaԏᦥḡ໕ქᜅᯕᬊᯕ

᧞30%ݡಽqᗭࡹ۵ၹ໕, ᜚ᬊ₉᪡ḡ⦹℁☖⧪ᮡ᧞10% ᷾aࡹ۵äᮝಽᇥᕾࡹᨩ݅. ᅙᩑǍđŝ۵ʑ⬥ᄡ⪵ᨱ঑ෙݡᵲƱ☖ᱶ₦ၰᬕ

ᩢႊჶđᱶᨱʑⅩᯱഭಽᔍᬊࡹᨕḩᙹᯩᮥäᮝಽʑݡࡽ݅.

áᔪᨕ ʑᔢ᳑Õ, ქᜅᙹ᫵, ḡ⦹℁ᙹ᫵

İࣀėॡ

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1. ᕽು

1.1 ઴֜ଭࢼլࢫࡧୡ

ݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵ᨱᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹۵᫵ᯙᮡʑᔢ᳑Õ, ᜚ᬊ₉ᅕᮁݡ ᙹ, ᮁa, ᫵ɩ, ᕽእᜅᙹᵡ, ࠥಽ⩥⫊॒ᩍ్aḡaᯩ݅. ʑᔢ᳑Õ

ᮥ ᱽ᫙⦽ ݅ෙ ᫵ᯙॅᮡ ŝÑᇡ░ ⩥ᰍʭḡ Йᵡ⦹í ᩑǍa

ࡹŁᯩŁ, ݡᵲƱ☖ᯕᬊ⪽ᖒ⪵ᱶ₦ᨱฯᮡᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹Łᯩ݅.

⦹ḡอݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵ᨱḢᱲᱢᯙᩢ⨆ᮥᵝ۵ʑᔢ᳑Õᯕ௝۵᫵

ᯙᮡ ǎԕᨱᕽ᮹ ᩑǍa ๅᬑ ऽྙ ᔢ⫊ᯕ݅.

ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵ᩍ్aḡʑᔢ᳑ÕॅᯕݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵ᨱᨕਅ

ᩢ⨆ᮥ, ᨝ษӹၙ⊹۵ḡ☖ĥᯱഭෝ☖⧕ᇥᕾ⦹Ł, əᯕᮁෝ

ᖅྙ᳑ᔍෝ ☖⧕ ࠥ⇽⦹ᩡ݅. ᅙ ᩑǍ đŝ۵ ʑ⬥ᄡ⪵ᨱ ঑ෙ

ݡᵲƱ☖ᱶ₦ၰᬕᩢႊჶđᱶᨱʑⅩᯱഭಽᔍᬊࡹᨕݡᵲƱ☖

ᕽእᜅᙹᵡၰ᜽ᖅ}ᖁᮥᮁࠥ⦹Ł, ₉⬥ݡᵲƱ☖ᯕᬊᮥᱽŁ᜽

┅۵ߑ ᩎ⧁ᮥ ⧁ äᮝಽ ʑݡࡽ݅.

1.2 ઴֜ଭ࣐଍ࢫࢺ࣑

ᩑǍ᮹᜽eᱢჵ᭥۵1֥☖ĥ⊹a᳕ᰍ⦹۵aᰆ↽ɝ֥ࠥᯙ

2011 ֥ᮝಽᱶ⦹ᩡŁ, Ŗeᱢჵ᭥۵ݡᵲƱ☖ᇥݕᮉᯕ2009֥

ʑᵡ63%ᯕŁ, ݡᵲƱ☖ᯕᬊ~ᯕ2011֥ʑᵡᯝ⠪Ɂ10,783,000

໦ᯙ ᕽᬙ᜽ಽ ⦽ᱶ⦹ᩡ݅.

ԕᬊᱢჵ᭥ಽ۵ʑᔢᯱഭෝⓍí4aḡ(᜽eݚvᙹప, vᖅప, ᇩ⏭ḡᙹ, ℕq᪉ࠥ)ಽᇥඹ⦹ŁݡᵲƱ☖ᯱഭ۵ქᜅ(᜽ԕქᜅ, ษᮥქᜅ)ᙹ᫵ၰḡ⦹℁ᙹ᫵ಽᇥඹ⦹ᩡ݅. ༉ुᯱഭ۵ᯝ݉᭥ෝ

ʑᵡᮝಽ⦹Ł, ݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵۵᜚₉ᯙᬱᮥʑᵡᮝಽᇥᕾᨱᔍᬊ

⦹ᩡ݅.

ᩑǍႊჶᮝಽ۵Ⓧíࢱaḡಽӹځḡ۵ߑ, ☖ĥᱢᇥᕾŝᖅྙ

᳑ᔍᇥᕾᮝಽǍᇥࡽ݅. ☖ĥᱢᇥᕾᮡ1₉ᱢᮝಽbʑᔢ᳑Õᨱ

঑௝ݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵᮹ᄡ⪵పᨱݡ⧕ᇥᕾ⦹Ł, əᄡ⪵aʑᔢ᳑Õ ᮹ᩢ⨆ভྙᯕ௝۵aᖅᮥᖅᱶ⦽अ, ༉⠪Ɂ₉ᯕá᷾ჶᮥᯕᬊ⦹

ᩍaᖅá᷾ᮥ⦹ᩡ݅. ݅ᮭ݉ĥಽbb᮹ʑᔢ᳑ÕŝݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ

᫵᮹ᔢššĥ᮹ᱶࠥෝ᦭ᦥᅕʑ᭥⧕ᔢšᇥᕾᮥᝅ᜽⦹ᩡ݅.

ษḡสᮝಽbb᮹ʑᔢ᳑Õ᮹ᩢ⨆ᱶࠥෝᯱᖙ⦹í᦭ᦥᅕʑ᭥

⦹ᩍ⫭ȡᇥᕾᮥᝅ᜽⦹ᩍ⫭ȡ᜾ᮥࠥ⇽⦹ᩡᮝ໑, ☖ĥᱢᇥᕾ

đŝෝ ᝅᱽ ᖅྙᮥ ☖⦹ᩍ á᷾⦹ᩍ ᅕᦹ݅.

2. ᖁ⧪ᩑǍŁₑ

2.1 ֝ٛটෘ઴֜ճఝ

ᝍ᧲ᖎ(2005)ᮡᕽᬙ᜽ქᜅיᖁᄥ1ᯝᯕᬊᯱᯱഭෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍ

ქᜅᙹ᫵᮹✚ᖒၰᙹ᫵ᄡ⪵, vᬑ᪡vᖅᨱ঑ෙქᜅᙹ᫵ᄡ⪵

॒ᮥᇥᕾ⻰á☁⦹ᩡ݅. əđŝาᮡԁᨱእ⧕እa᪅۵ԁ

ქᜅᙹ᫵aqᗭ⦹۵äᮝಽӹ┡ԍŁ, יᖁᄥ✚ᖒᮝಽ۵ḡᖁ

ၰ ษᮥქᜅᅕ݅ eᖁქᜅ᮹ qᗭ⡎ᯕ ⓑ äᮝಽ ӹ┡ԍ݅.

ᱶ⨭ᩢ(2011)ᮡᝅᱽ᜽ԕქᜅᯕᬊᯱෝݡᔢᮝಽvᬑᨱ঑ෙ

᜽ԕქᜅᯕᬊᝅ┽᪡vᬑపᨱ঑ෙ᜽ԕქᜅᯕᬊ᮹᜾ᮥ᳑ᔍ⦹

ᩡ݅. ᯕෝၵ┶ᮝಽᙽᕽ⩶⥥ಽኸ༉⩶ᮥ☖⦽vᬑᨱ঑ෙ᜽ԕქ ᜅᩩ⊂༉⩶ᮥǍ⇶⦹ᩡŁ, vᬑపᨱ঑ෙ᜽ԕქᜅᯕᬊ┥ಆࠥᨱ

ݡ⦹ᩍᇥᕾ⦹ᩡ݅. ༉⩶Ǎ⇶đŝ᜽ԕქᜅᯕᬊኩࠥa׳ᮡ

᮲ݖᯱᯝᙹಾ, ᩑಚᯕ׳ᮥᙹಾ᜽ԕქᜅᯕᬊ⪶ශᯕ׳ᮡäᮝಽ

ӹ┡ԍ݅. ੱ⦽☖ɝ⻰☖⦺᮹☖⧪༊ᱢᯕ݅ෙ☖⧪༊ᱢᅕ݅ᯕᬊ

⪶ශᯕ׳ᮝ໑, ₉పᮥᗭᮁ⦹ḡᦫᮡ᮲ݖᯱ᮹Ğᬑ׳ᮡᯕᬊ⪶ශ

ᮥ ᅕᯕ۵ äᮝಽ ӹ┡ԍ݅.

ၶɝᩢ(2012)ᮡ 2010֥ ᇡᔑ᜽ ݡᵲƱ☖ᯱഭ᪡ vᬑᯱഭෝ

ᯕᬊ⦹ᩍ vᬑᯝŝ าᮡԁ᮹ ☖⧪Õᙹ᪡ ☖⧪ɩᧂᮥ እƱ⦹Ł, ᖅྙ᳑ᔍෝᝅ᜽⦹ᩡ݅. əđŝ᧞⦽እᅕ݅v⦽እᯝᙹಾქᜅ☖

⧪ᯕᵥᨕऽ۵äᮝಽӹ┡ԍᮝ໑, ᵝั᮹Ğᬑ⠪ᯝŝእƱ⧩ᮥ

ভ✚⯩ฯᮡ₉ᯕෝᅕᯕ۵äᮝಽӹ┡ԍ݅. ݡʑ᜽eྙᱽ᪡

ქᜅᱶඹᰆᇩ⠙ᯕvᬑ᜽ქᜅ☖⧪ᮥ⦹ḡᦫ۵aᰆⓑᯕᮁಽ

ӹ┡ԍ݅.

2.2 ැ૤টෘ઴֜ճఝ

Stanley A. Changnon (1996) ᮡ᜽⋕Ł᮹3֥eߑᯕ░ෝᯕᬊ

⦹ᩍvᬑaƱ☖ᨱᵝ۵ᩢ⨆ᮥᩑǍ⦹ᩡ݅. Ʊ☖ᔍŁ, Ʊ☖ప, ݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵᫙ᨱࠥᅕ✙ӹ⧎Ŗᇥ᧝ᨱšಉࡽᇥ᧝ࠥ⧉̹ᇥᕾ

⦹ᩡ݅. እa᪅۵࠺ᦩݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵۵3ⴇ5% qᗭ⦹ᩡŁ, ݡᇡᇥ

9 ᜽ᇡ░ 16᜽࠺ᦩ᮹ qᗭಽ ӹ┡ԍ݅.

Asad and Ande (1997)۵ᝅᔾ⪽ᨱᕽᯝၹᱢᯙᔢ⫊ŝᩩᔢ⊹

༜⦽☖⧪᳑Õ⦹ᨱ☖⧪⦹۵ᔍ௭᮹⧪࠺ᮥᯕ⧕⦹ʑ᭥⧕ᄉʑᨱ ᮹ቭඝᖡᔍ௭ॅᮥݡᔢᮝಽᖅྙ᳑ᔍෝᝅ᜽⦹ᩡ݅. ᜚ᬊ₉ෝ

ᯕᬊ⦹ᩍ☖ɝᮥ⦹۵ᔍ௭ᮥḲᵲᱢᮝಽᩑǍ⦹ᩡ۵ߑ, əđŝ

ᱩၹᱶࠥaᳬḡᦫᮡʑᔢ᳑Õᨱ᮹⧕☖⧪➉▕ᮥᄡ⪵᜽⎑݅.

60% ۵ᯱᝁ᮹⇽ၽ᜽eᮥᄡĞ⦹ᩡŁ, 35%۵ݡℕיᖁᮝಽႊ⨆

ᮥ࠭ಙ݅. ษḡสᮝಽ⥥ಽኸ༉⩶ᮥ☖⧕ᙹ݉ᖁ┾ŝ⇽ၽ᜽eᮥ

⇵ᱶ⦹ᩡ۵ߑ, əđŝᳬḡᦫᮡʑᔢ᳑Õᯕ☖ɝᯱॅ᮹☖⧪➉▕ᮥ

ᄡ⪵᜽┉݅۵ đುᮥ ࠥ⇽⦹ᩡ݅.

Hofmann and O'Mahony (2005) ۵ӹᒽʑᔢ᳑Õᮝಽᯙ⦽

ქᜅᕽእᜅᙹᵡᨱᩢ⨆ᮥᇥᕾ⦹ᩡ݅. ᯕ۵ࠥ᜽ქᜅᔍᨦᯱॅᨱ íᬕᩢĥ⫮ᯕӹᜅ⍡ᷕย, ქᜅšญᨱၹᩢ⧁ᙹᯩí⦹ʑ᭥⧉ᯕ

݅. ᇥᕾݡᔢᮡქᜅᙹ᫵, ქᜅࠥ₊ኩࠥ, ₉ࢱ᜽e, ☖⧪᜽eᯕŁ

ᇥᕾđŝvᬑ᜽ᨱ༉ुݡᔢᨱᇡᱶᱢᯙᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊽݅۵đುᯕ

ࠥ⇽ࡹᨩ݅.

Zhan et al. (2007) ۵᜽⋕Ł᮹ݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵ᨱݡ⦽ԁᦉ᮹

ᩢ⨆ᮥ ᩑǍ⦹ᩡ݅. ↽ᗭᯱ᜚ ⫭ȡᇥᕾჶᮥ ᔍᬊ⦹ᩍ ᪉ࠥ, እ,

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Table 1. Analyzed Data

Meteorological Data Rainfall Amount

(mm/hr)

Rainfall Amount (mm/day) Duration of Rainfall (hr) Snowfall Amount (cm/day)

Discomfort Index Maximum Temperature (C) Relative Humidity (%)

Sensible Temperature Minimum Temperature (C) Wind Speed (m/s) Transit Ridership

Bus Ridership in Seoul City Bus Ridership (Red, Blue, Green, Yellow) Shuttle Bus Ridership

Metro Ridership in Seoul

Seoul Metro (1 4Line) Ridership Korail (58Line) Ridership

٩, ၵ௭ᮥᄡᙹಽݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵᮹ᄡ⪵ෝ᦭ᦥᅙđŝ, ᯝၹᱢᮝಽ

ᳬᮡ ԁᦉᨱ۵ ᙹ᫵a ᷾a⦹Ł ᳬḡ ᦫᮡ ԁᦉᨱ۵ qᗭ⦹۵

đŝෝᅕᩡ݅. ქᜅᙹ᫵aḡ⦹℁ᙹ᫵ᅕ݅ၝq⦽ၹ᮲ᮥᅕᩡŁ, ᵝัᙹ᫵a ᵝᵲᙹ᫵ᅕ݅ ၝq⦽ ၹ᮲ᮥ ᅕᩡ݅.

Muhammad et al. (2009) ۵ 1996֥ օ޽௡ऽ᮹ Ʊ☖ᖅྙ

☖ĥ᳑ᔍᯱഭෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍʑᔢ᳑Õᯕ}ᯙ᮹ᙹ݉ᖁ┾ᨱᨕਅ

ᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹۵ḡᩑǍ⦹ᩡ݅. ݅⧎ಽḴ༉⩶ᮥᔍᬊ⦹ᩍ⇵ᱶᮥ

⦹ᩡ۵ߑ, əđŝv⦽ၵ௭ᮡᯱᱥÑෝᯕᬊ⦹ಅ۵Ğ⨆ᮥqᗭ

᜽┅Ł᜚ᬊ₉᪡ݡᵲƱ☖ᖁ┾ᮥ᷾a᜽⎑݅. ԏᮡ᪉ࠥ᪡vᙹప

ੱ⦽ zᮡ đŝෝ ӹ┡ԩ݅. ᯱᱥÑ☖⧪ᯕӹ ᜚ᬊ₉☖⧪ᮡ ⓑ

ᄡ⪵⡎ᮥ ӹ┡ԕ۵ ၹ໕, ݡᵲƱ☖ᯕӹ ࠥᅕ ☖⧪᮹ ᄡ⪵⡎ᮡ

᯲ᦹ݅.

Stover and McCormack (2012) ᮡ2006֥ᇡ░2008֥ʭḡ

Washington Pierce County᮹ ქᜅᙹ᫵ᨱ ݡ⦽ ԁᦉ᮹ ᩢ⨆ᮥ

ᩑǍ⦹ᩡ݅. ʑᔢ᳑Õᮡ֥ᵲʑeᨱ঑௝݅ෙᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⋁ᙹ

ᯩʑভྙᨱĥᱩᄥಽ↽ᗭᯱ᜚⫭ȡᇥᕾჶᮥ☖⧕⇵ᱶ⦹ᩡ݅.

4 aḡԁᦉᄡᙹಽ۵ၵ௭, ᪉ࠥ, እ, ٩ᯕᔍᬊࡹᨩ݅. ᇥᕾđŝ

v⦽ၵ௭ᮡᅥ, aᮥ, ĉᬙʑeᨱᙹ᫵ᨱᇡᱶᱢᯙᩢ⨆ᮥᵝŁ, ԏᮡ᪉ࠥ۵ĉᬙᨱᙹ᫵ෝqᗭ᜽┉݅. እ۵ᔍĥᱩ࠺ᦩᙹ᫵ᨱ

ᇡᱶᱢᯙᩢ⨆ᮥᵝŁ٩ᮡaᮥ, ĉᬙᨱԏᮡᙹ᫵᪡šಉᯕᯩ݅Ł

ӹ┡ԍ݅.

3. ᯱഭᙹḲၰᇥᕾႊჶು

3.1 ୀ߹৤ு

ᅙ ᩑǍᨱᕽ ᔍᬊ⦽ ᯱഭ۵ Table 1ŝ zᯕ Ⓧí ࢱ aḡಽ

ӹڽ݅. ℌṙ, ʑᔢᯱഭಽ۵ʑᔢℎᨱᕽᱽŖ⦽2011֥1ᬵ1ᯝᇡ

░12ᬵ31ᯝᯝ֥e᮹vᙹప, vᖅప, ᇩ⏭ḡᙹၰℕq᪉ࠥa

ᯕᬊࡹᨩ݅.

ࢹṙ, ݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵ᯱഭ᮹Ğᬑ, ქᜅᙹ᫵۵ᕽᬙ᜽Ʊ☖ᱶᅕᖝ

░ᨱᕽ᜽ԕ(Ųᩎ, eᖁ, ḡᖁ, ᙽ⪹)ქᜅᙹ᫵᪡ษᮥქᜅᙹ᫵a

ᯝᄥಽᙹḲࡹᨩŁ, ḡ⦹℁ᙹ᫵ಽ۵ᕽᬙີ✙ಽ᪡ᕽᬙࠥ᜽℁ࠥ

Ŗᔍ᮹ ᯝᄥᙹ᫵ෝ ᙹḲ⦹ᩍ ⧊⦽ sᯕ ᔍᬊࡹᨩ݅.

3.2 ंজࢺ࣑ߨ 3.2.1 ৤૬࣡ฃंজ

ݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵ᨱݡ⦽ᩢ⨆ᮡ✚ᱶᯝᨱ঑௝݅෕ʑভྙᨱ⠪ᯝ- ᵝัŝĥᱩᄥಽӹ٥ᨕᇥᕾࡹᨩ݅. ᖅ·⇵ᕾᩑ⮕, ᝁᱶ, 1ᬵ2ᯝ, 9ᬵ14ᯝ, 12ᬵ31ᯝᮡ ᇥᕾݡᔢᨱᕽ ᱽ᫙ࡹᨩ݅.

3.2.2 ۩ண֗ധ৤૬࣡ฃଭധծୡՑஹ

ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵ʑᔢ᳑Õᨱ঑ෙݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵᮹₉ᯕa☖ĥᱢ ᮝಽᮁ᮹⦽ḡá᷾⦹ʑ᭥⧕ࢱ༉⠪Ɂ₉ᯕá᷾ᮥᝅ᜽⦹ᩡ݅.

ᗭ⢽ᅙᮝಽ ❱݉⦹ᩍ t-áᱶ ႊჶᮥ ᔍᬊ⦹ᩡ݅.

bb᮹ʑᔢ᳑Õᄥಽᔑ⇽ࡽpsᯕ0.05ᅕ᯲݅ᮝ໕“ᇡᱶᱢᯙ

ʑᔢ᳑Õᯝভ᮹ᙹ᫵᪡⠪ᔢ᜽᮹ᙹ᫵۵z݅.”௝۵ȡྕaᖅ(H

0

)

ᮥᝁ഑ᙹᵡ90%ᨱᕽʑb⦹íࡹᨕ“ᇡᱶᱢᯙʑᔢ᳑Õᯝভ᮹

ᙹ᫵᪡⠪ᔢ᜽᮹ᙹ᫵۵݅෕݅.”௝۵ݡพaᖅ(H

1

) ᮥ₥┾⦹í

ࡽ݅. ঑௝ᕽ᭥᮹ʑbࡽʑᔢ᳑Õᄥᙹ᫵᮹ᄡ⪵۵☖ĥᱢᮝಽ

ᮁ᮹⦹݅۵ đುᮥ ᨜í ࡽ݅.

3.2.3 ঃւंজࢫฎֱंজ

ʑᔢ᳑ÕᄥಽݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵᪡᮹ᔢšᱶࠥෝ᦭ᦥᅕʑ᭥⧕ĥ ᱩᄥಽᔢšᇥᕾᮥᝅ᜽⦹ᩡ݅. ᩍ෥℁ᨱ۵᜽eݚvᙹప, ᇩ⏭ḡ ᙹ, ḡ⦹℁ᙹ᫵, ქᜅᙹ᫵e᮹ᔢššĥෝ᦭ᦥᅕᦹŁ, ĉᬙ℁ᨱ ۵vᖅప, ℕq᪉ࠥ, ḡ⦹℁ᙹ᫵, ქᜅᙹ᫵e᮹ᔢššĥෝ᦭ᦥ ᅕᦹ݅.

əđŝෝ☁ݡಽbb᮹ʑᔢ᳑ÕᯕݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵ᨱᵝ۵ᩢ⨆

ᱶࠥෝ᦭ᦥᅕʑ᭥⧕↽ᗭᯱ᜚ჶ݉ᙽ⫭ȡᇥᕾᮥᝅ᜽⦹ᩍ⫭ȡ

᜾ᮥ ࠥ⇽⦹ᩡ݅.

3.2.4 ডࢂ୺ॷंজ

ᖅྙ᳑ᔍ⧎༊ᮡᦿᨱᕽၙญᝅ᜽⦽☖ĥᯱഭᇥᕾᮥ☁ݡಽ

᯲ᖒ⦹ᩡ݅. ☖ĥᱢᮝಽᮁ᮹⦽đŝෝӹ┡ԙḡ⢽ෝʑᵡᮝಽ

าᮡԁ᮹ᙹ݉ᖁ┾ŝᨕਅ₉ᯕෝӹ┡ԕ۵ḡᵲᱱᱢᮝಽ᦭ᦥᅕ ᦹ݅. ᳑ᔍݡᔢᮡݡᵲƱ☖ᮥᯕᬊ⦹ŁᙹࠥǭᨱÑᵝ⦹۵ᯝၹ᜽

ၝᮝಽᖁᱶ⦹ᩡŁ, 2012֥11ᬵⴇ2012֥12ᬵᨱᝅ᜽⦹ᩡ݅.

᳑ᔍႊჶᮝಽ۵ ݡᯙ໕ᱲᖅྙ᳑ᔍෝ ᝅ᜽⦹ᩡ݅.

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Table 2. Effect on Transit Ridership

Weather Condition

Bus Metro

Weekday Week end Weekday Week end

Rain* 7%  7%  5%  5% 

DI 3% 4% 3% 7%

Snow - 2%  1%  2% 

ST 5%  7%  4%  5% 

* Rain (Rainfall Amount), DI (Discomfort Index), Snow (Snowfall Amount), ST(Sensible Temperature)

Table 3. Statistical Verification

Weather

Condition Transit Ridership Metro (p-value)

Bus (p-value)

Rain sum.

weekday 0.0000 0.0000

Sat. 0.0353 0.0577

Sun. 0.0042 0.0098

DI sum.

weekday 0.0046 0.0519

Sat. 0.2902 0.9630

Sun. 0.8741 0.6540

Snow win.

weekday 0.3837 0.2295

Sat. 0.5856 0.3609

Sun. 0.8025 0.7498

ST win

weekday 0.0000 0.0000

Sat. 0.0040 0.0022

Sun. 0.0484 0.0193

* sum.(summer), win.(winter)

Table 4. Correlation Analysis Results (Summer Season)

Sum_weekday Rain DI Metro

Rain 1

DI 0.0820 1

Metro -0.4610 -0.2627 1

Bus -0.5631 -0.1593 0.9323

Sum_Sat Rain DI Metro

Rain 1

DI -0.0513 1

Metro -0.5506 -0.2641 1

Bus -0.63 -0.0349 0.8913

Sum_Sun Rain DI Metro

Rain 1

DI -0.2657 1

Metro -0.8915 0.0925 1

Bus -0.9317 0.2144 0.9662

* Sum_weekday (weekdays in summer) Sum_Sat (Saturdays in summer) Sum_Sun (Sundays in summer)

4. ᇥᕾđŝ

4.1 ৤૬࣡ฃंজէր

ᙹ᫵ᄡ⪵ෝᇥᕾ⦹ʑ᭥⦹ᩍ⠪ᯝ249ᯝ, ᵝั104ᯝᯕᇥᕾݡᔢ ᮝಽ ᖅᱶࡹᨩŁ, ĥᱩᄥಽ۵ ᩍ෥℁᮹ ⠪ᯝ 83ᯝŝ ᵝั 34ᯝ, əญŁĉᬙ℁᮹⠪ᯝ82ᯝŝᵝั31ᯝᯕᇥᕾݡᔢᮝಽᖅᱶࡹᨩ݅.

Table 2 ŝzᯕݡᇡᇥ᮹ʑᔢ᳑Õᨱᕽქᜅaḡ⦹℁ᅕ݅ᩢ⨆

ᯕⓑäᮝಽӹ┡ԍ݅. ʑᔢᦦ⪵aᝍ⪵ࢁĞᬑ⠪ᯝᅕ݅ᵝัᨱ

ݡ⦽ ᩢ⨆ᯕ ⓑ äᮝಽ ӹ┡ԍ݅.

4.2 ۩ண֗ധ৤૬࣡ฃଭധծୡंজէր

Table 2ᨱᕽʑᔢ᳑Õ᮹ᩢ⨆ᯕ☖ĥᱢᮝಽᮁ᮹⦽ḡᇥᕾ⦹ᩡ

݅. ᯕভᵝัᵲ☁᫵ᯝŝᯝ᫵ᯝ᮹ᙹ᫵₉ᯕaᯩᨕ☁᫵ᯝŝ

ᯝ᫵ᯝᮥӹ٥ᨕᇥᕾ⦹ᩡ݅. ʑᔢ᳑ÕᄥݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵᮹༉⠪Ɂ

₉ᯕ á᷾ đŝ, p-value۵ Table 3ŝ z݅.

4aḡʑᔢ᳑Õᵲvᬑ᪡ℕq᪉ࠥa☖ĥᱢ(ᝁ഑ᙹᵡ90%)ᮝ ಽᮁ᮹⦹݅۵đŝෝ᨜ᨩ݅. ᇩ⏭ḡᙹ۵ᩍ෥ᵝᵲḡ⦹℁ᙹ᫵ෝ

ᱽ᫙⦹Ł۵ᔢݡᱢᮝಽݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵ᨱⓑᩢ⨆ᯕᨧ݅Łᇥᕾࡹ

ᨩ݅.

4.3 ঃւंজࢫฎֱंজէր

⠪ᯝ, ☁᫵ᯝ, ᯝ᫵ᯝಽӹ٥ᨕᩍ෥℁ŝĉᬙ℁bb᮹ʑᔢ᳑

Õŝ ḡ⦹℁, ქᜅ᮹ ᙹ᫵᪡᮹ ᔢššĥෝ ᦭ᦥᅕᦹ݅(Table 4 ₙ᳑).

ᩍ෥℁⠪ᯝ᮹Ğᬑ᜽eݚvᙹపŝḡ⦹℁, ქᜅ᮹ᔢšĥᙹa

bb-0.4610, -0.5631ಽᮭ᮹ᔢššĥa᳕ᰍ⦹۵äᮝಽӹ┡ԍ

݅. ၹ໕ᇩ⏭ḡᙹ᮹Ğᬑ۵bb-0.2627, -0.1593ᮝಽ᜽eݚvᙹ పᨱ እ⧕ ԏᮡ ᔢššĥa ӹ┡ԍ݅. ᔢšĥᙹ᮹ እƱෝ ☖⧕

ᩍ෥℁⠪ᯝ᮹Ğᬑ᜽eݚvᙹపᨱݡ⦽ᩢ⨆ᯕ޵ⓑäᮥ᦭

ᙹᯩᨩᮝ໑, ქᜅaḡ⦹℁ᨱእ⧕ʑᔢ᳑Õ᮹ᩢ⨆ᮥ޵ၼ۵݅۵

äᮥ ᦭ ᙹ ᯩ݅.

ᩍ෥℁☁᫵ᯝࠥ⠪ᯝŝᮁᔍ⦽⇵ᖙෝᅕᯕŁᯩ݅. ᜽eݚvᙹ పᯕ޵ⓑᔢššĥෝᅕᯕŁᯩŁ, ḡ⦹℁-0.5506, ქᜅ-0.63ᮝ ಽქᜅᨱᩢ⨆ᯕ޵ⓑäᮝಽӹ┡ԍ݅. ᯝ᫵ᯝ᮹Ğᬑᯕ్⦽

⇵ᖙ۵ ޵ᬒ ⍅Კ ḡ⦹℁, ქᜅ bb -0.8915, -0.9317᮹ ๅᬑ

ⓑᮭ᮹ᔢššĥෝӹ┡ԩ݅. ᯕ۵ᵝᵲᅕ݅ᵝั᮹ݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵

aʑᔢ᳑Õᨱ޵ᬒၝq⧉ᮥᅕᩍᵡ݅. ᇩ⏭ḡᙹ۵ḡ⦹℁0.0925, ქᜅ 0.2144ಽ ᔢšĥᙹa ๅᬑ ԏí ӹ┡ԍ݅.

ĉᬙ℁ᨱ۵Table 5᪡zᯕℕq᪉ࠥ௝۵ḡ⢽aݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵

᪡׳ᮡᔢššĥෝӹ┡ԩ݅. ⠪ᯝ᮹Ğᬑḡ⦹℁0.5036, ქᜅ

(5)

Table 5. Correlation Analysis Results (Winter Season)

Win_weekday Snow ST Metro

Snow 1

ST -0.1002 1

Metro -0.0739 0.5036 1

Bus -0.1441 0.5695 0.8714

Win_Sat Snow ST Metro

Snow 1

ST -0.1702 1

Metro 0.0837 0.7720 1

Bus -0.1477 0.8883 0.8128

Win_Sun Snow ST Metro

Snow 1

ST 0.0359 1

Metro 0.2514 0.6204 1

Bus 0.2502 0.6925 0.922

* Win_weekday(weekdays in winter) Win_Sat(Saturdays in winter) Win_Sun(Sundays in winter)

Table 6. Simple Regression Analysis*

Conditions Metro R

²

Bus R

²

Rain

Sum_weekday Y=-30905X

1

+5E+06 0.21 Y=-58037X

1

+7E+06 0.32

Sum_Sat Y=-184585X

1

+4E+06 0.69 Y=-256423X

1

+5E+06 0.74

Sum_Sun Y=-119526X

1

+3E+06 0.79 Y=-179211X

1

+4E+06 0.87

DI

Sum_weekday Y=-12333X

2

+6E+06 0.07 Y=-11497X

2

+7E+06 0.03

Sum_Sat Y=-12996X

2

+5E+06 0.04 Y=12384X

2

+4E+06 0.02

Sum_Sun Y=5678.3X

2

+2E+06 0.01 Y=18976X

2

+2E+06 0.05

Snow

Win_weekday Y=23797X

3

+5E+06 0.00 Y=-17340X

3

+6E+06 0.00

Win_Sat Y=96483X

3

+4E+06 0.01 Y=-214564X

3

+5E+06 0.02

Win_Sun Y=335363X

3

+3E+06 0.06 Y=399937X

3

+4E+06 0.06

ST

Win_weekday Y=31538X

4

+6E+06 0.65 Y=47967X

4

+7E+06 0.72

Win_Sat Y=25781X

4

+5E+06 0.69 Y=44671X

4

+5E+06 0.87

Win_Sun Y=23813X

4

+3E+06 0.60 Y=33092X

4

+4E+06 0.84

Y: demand of Metro of Bus, X : Rain Amount, X : Discomfort Index, X : Snowfall Amout, X 0.5695 ಽ᧲᮹ᔢššĥa᳕ᰍ⦹۵äᮥ⪶ᯙ⧁ᙹᯩᨩ݅. ੱ⦽

᜽eݚvᙹపŝษ₍aḡಽქᜅᨱ ݡ⦽ᩢ⨆ᯕḡ⦹℁ᅕ݅ⓑ

äᮝಽӹ┡ԍ݅. ၹ໕vᖅపᮡᮭ᮹ᔢššĥෝӹ┡ԩ۵ߑə

ᙹ⊹۵-0.1441, -0.0739ಽๅᬑԏíӹ┡ԍ݅. ᧞⦽vᖅ᜽ᨱ۵

ᙹ᫵a ᗭ⡎ qᗭ⦹Ł, v⦽ vᖅ᜽ᨱ۵ ᙹ᫵᮹ ᄡ⪵a ᨧÑӹ

ᗭ⡎᷾a⦹۵Ğ⨆ᯕᯩᨕᔢšĥᙹaๅᬑԏíӹ┡ӽäᮝಽ

❱݉ࡽ݅.

ᵝั᮹Ğᬑࠥᩍ෥℁ŝእ᜘⦽⇵ᖙaӹ┡ԍ݅. ᵝั᮹ᔢšĥ

ᙹ۵᷾a⧩ḡอᯝ᫵ᯝᅕ݅☁᫵ᯝᨱ޵ⓑᔢššĥෝӹ┡ԩ݅.

☁᫵ᯝ ᔢšĥᙹ ᙹ⊹۵ ḡ⦹℁, ქᜅ bb 0.7720, 0.8883ಽ

ๅᬑ׳ᮡᔢššĥෝӹ┡ԩŁ, ᯝ᫵ᯝࠥbb0.6204, 0.6925ಽ

⠪ᯝᨱ እ⧕ ᔢšĥᙹa Ⓧḡอ, ☁᫵ᯝᅕ݅۵ ᱢ݅.

⠪ᯝŝ ☁᫵ᯝ, ᯝ᫵ᯝಽ ӹ٥ᨕ b ʑᔢ᳑Õᄥ ↽ᗭᯱ᜚ჶ

݉ᙽ⫭ȡᇥᕾᮥ ᝅ᜽⦹ᩡ݅. ə đŝ ᩍ෥℁ ᵝั vᬑᨱ ݡ⦽

⫭ȡ᜾ŝĉᬙ℁ℕq᪉ࠥᨱݡ⦽⫭ȡ᜾ᮥᱽ᫙⦹Ł۵༉ࢱđᱶ ĥᙹsᯕ0.3 ᯕ⦹ಽๅᬑԏíӹ┡ӹ⫭ȡ᜾ᨱݡ⦽ᖅ໦ಆᯕ

ਉᨕḡ۵äᮝಽ❱݉ࡹᨕᱽ᫙⦹ᩡ݅. ၹ໕, ᩍ෥℁ᵝัvᬑ᪡

ĉᬙ℁⠪ᯝ, ᵝัℕq᪉ࠥᨱݡ⦽⫭ȡ᜾ᮡ׳ᮡᙹᵡ᮹đᱶĥᙹ

sᮥӹ┡ԩ݅. ✚⯩ქᜅᙹ᫵᪡ᨱšಉࡽ⫭ȡ᜾᮹ᖅ໦ಆᯕ׳í

ӹ┡ԍ۵ߑ, ᯕ۵⧕ݚʑᔢ᳑Õᯕḡ⦹℁ᅕ݅ქᜅᙹ᫵ᨱݡ⦽

ᩢ⨆ᯕ ⓝᮥ ᅕᩍᵡ݅.

4.4 ডࢂ୺ॷंজէր

ᖅྙ᳑ᔍ⧎༊ᮡᦿᨱᕽᝅ᜽⦽☖ĥᯱഭᇥᕾᮥ☁ݡಽ᯲ᖒ⦹

ᩡ݅. ☖ĥᱢᮝಽᮁ᮹⦽đŝෝӹ┡ԙ, ʑᔢ᳑Õ, vᬑ᪡ℕq᪉

ࠥෝ ʑᵡᮝಽ าᮡ ԁ᮹ ᙹ݉ᖁ┾ŝ ᨕਅ ₉ᯕෝ ӹ┡ԕ۵ḡ

ᵲᱱᱢᮝಽ᦭ᦥᅕᦹ݅. ੱ⦽əᯕᮁෝ᳑ᔍ⧎༊ᨱ⇵a⦹ᩍ᪽

ᙹ݉ᱥ⪹ᯕᯝᨕԍ۵ḡෝࠥ⇽⦹ᩡ݅. ᖅྙḡ᳑ᔍ⧎༊ᮡTable 7 ŝ z݅.

᳑ᔍݡᔢᮡݡᵲƱ☖ᮥᯕᬊ⦹ŁᙹࠥǭᨱÑᵝ⦹۵ᯝၹ᜽ၝ ᮝಽᖁᱶ⦹ᩡŁ, 2012֥11ᬵⴇ2012֥12ᬵᨱᝅ᜽⦹ᩡ݅. ᳑ᔍ

ႊჶᮝಽ۵ݡᯙ໕ᱲᖅྙ᳑ᔍෝᝅ᜽⦹ᩡŁ, ⅾ262ᇡ᮹ᮁ⬉⦽

ᖅྙ᳑ᔍ đŝෝ ᨜ᨩ݅.

᳑ᔍݡᔢᵲԉᖒᮡ57% ᩍᖒᮡ43%ಽӹ┡ԍ݅. ᳑ᔍݡᔢ᮹

Ñᵝḡᩎᮝಽ۵ ᕽᬙḡᩎᯕ 37%, ə ᫙ ᙹࠥǭḡᩎᯕ 63%ಽ

(6)

Table 7. Survey Questionaries

Current status of transit use

Number of use Hours of use

Access time Purpose of use

Mode choice under normal weather condition Mode choice under rainy day Mode choice under low temperature Important factors considered in mode choice Modal shift causes under bad weather condition Respondents’

personal attributes Gender, age, address, auto ownership

Fig. 1. Mode Choice Under Weather Condition

Fig. 2. Important Factors Considered in Mode Choice

Fig. 3. Modal Shift Causes Under Bad Weather Condition

ӹ┡ԍ݅. ᖅྙ᮲ݖᯱ᮹ᩑಚݡ۵20ݡa49%, 30ݡ۵21%, 40ݡ a 20%, 50ݡa 9%, 60ݡᯕᔢᮡ 1%ಽ ӹ┡ԍ݅. ษḡสᮝಽ

᮲ݖᯱᵲ48%a᜚ᬊ₉ᯕᬊᯕa܆⦹݅Ł᮲ݖ⦹ᩡŁ, 52%a

᜚ᬊ₉ ᯕᬊᯕ ᇩa܆⦹݅Ł ᮲ݖ⦹ᩡ݅.

Fig. 1ᨱᕽʑᔢ᳑Õᄥᙹ݉ᖁ┾ᮝಽ۵⠪ᔢ᜽ᨱ᜚ᬊ₉12%, ḡ⦹℁24%, ქᜅ55%, ษᮥქᜅ7%, ಽქᜅ᮹እᵲᯕⓑäᮝಽ

ӹ┡ԍ݅. ⦹ḡอ vᬑ᜽ᨱ۵ ᜚ᬊ₉ 19%, ḡ⦹℁ 33%, ქᜅ

37%, ษᮥქᜅ6%, ʑ┡(┾᜽॒) 5%ᮝಽქᜅ᮹እᵲᯕⓍí

qᗭ⦽ၹ໕, ḡ⦹℁ŝ᜚ᬊ₉᮹እᵲᯕⓍí۹ᨕԍ݅. ĉᬙ℁

ℕq᪉ࠥaԏᮥ᜽ᨱࠥvᬑ᪡ᮁᔍ⦽đŝෝӹ┡ԩ݅. ᜚ᬊ₉

21%, ḡ⦹℁35%, ქᜅ33%, ษᮥქᜅ7%, ʑ┡(┾᜽॒) 4%ಽ

ქᜅ᮹ እᵲᯕ Ⓧí qᗭ⦹Ł ᜚ᬊ₉᪡ ḡ⦹℁᮹ እᵲᯕ Ⓧí

᷾a⦹ᩡ݅.

Fig. 2ᨱᕽᙹ݉ᖁ┾᜽ᵲ᫵⦹íᔾb⦹۵᫵ᯙᮝಽ۵☖⧪᜽e ᯕaᰆ׳ᮡ᮲ݖශᮥᅕᩡ݅. ݅ᮭᮝಽᱲɝᖒᯕࢱჩṙಽ׳ᮡ

᮲ݖශᮥӹ┡ԩŁ, ⠙ญᖒ, ᫵ɩ, ⏭ᱢᖒ, ʑ┡(ᱶ᜽ᖒ, ᳭ᕾ⪶ᅕ, ᵝ₉ᩍÕ)ᙽᮝಽ ӹ┡ԍ݅.

Fig. 3ᨱᕽʑᔢᦦ⪵᜽ᙹ݉ᱥ⪹ᯕᮁಽ۵Ⓧí6aḡᯕᮁಽ

Ǎᇥࡹᨩ݅. ຝᱡvᬑ᜽ᬑᔑᮥᔍᬊ⦹໕ᕽ, እᨱᱷᮭŝ࠺᜽ᨱ

┡ᯙŝ᮹ᱲⅪၰ₉ԕ⪝ᰂ, ₉ԕᕽእᜅᙹᵡᱡ⦹ಽᯙ⦽ᇩ⠙⧉ᯕ

43%ಽaᰆ׳ᮡ᮲ݖᙹෝӹ┡ԩ݅. ə݅ᮭᮝಽ۵Ʊ☖⪝ᰂᮝಽ

ᯙ⦽☖⧪᜽e᷾a, ᱶ᜽ᖒᇡ᳒, ႑₉eĊ᷾a᮹ᯕᮁa30%,

⇵᭥ӹvᬑᨱי⇽ࡹᨕᯩ۵᜽eᮥ↽ᗭ⪵⦹ʑ᭥⦽ᯕᮁa13%, ኸʙၰ٩ʙᦩᱥᖒᨱš⦽ྙᱽa7%, vᖅ᜽₉పᬕ⧪ᇩaಽ

ᯙ⦽ᱥ⪹ᯕ4%, ᕽእᜅᨱእ⦹ᩍ᫵ɩᯕእ᝙݅۵᮹čᯕ3%ಽ

ӹ┡ԩ݅.

5. đು

ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵ʑᔢ᳑ÕᯕݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵ᨱᨕਅᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹۵ ḡ᦭ᦥᅕᦹ݅. əđŝᔹ⥭ᙹaᇡ᳒⦽vᖅᮥᱽ᫙⦹Łvᬑ, ᇩ⏭ḡᙹ, ℕq᪉ࠥ᮹ʑᔢ᳑ÕᯕݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵ෝ᧞2ⴇ7% qᗭ

᜽┅۵ äᮝಽ ӹ┡ԍ݅.

ᙹ᫵᮹qᗭ⡎ᯕ☖ĥᱢᮝಽᮁ᮹⦽ḡ᦭ᦥᅕʑ᭥⧕t-áᱶᮥ

ᝅ᜽⦹ᩍ, əᵲvᬑ᪡ℕq᪉ࠥa☖ĥᱢᮝಽᮁ᮹⦹݅۵đŝෝ

᨜ᨩ݅. ᔢšᇥᕾđŝࠥᮁᔍ⦽⇵ᖙෝӹ┡ԩ۵ߑ, vᬑ᪡ℕq᪉

ࠥ2aḡḡ⢽aᔢݡᱢᮝಽ׳ᮡᔢššĥෝᅕᩡᮝ໑, ᧝᫙ᨱ

י⇽ࡹᨕᯩ۵ქᜅ᮹ᙹ᫵aḡ⦹℁ᙹ᫵ᨱእ⧕ᔢššĥa׳ᦹ

(7)

݅. ʑᔢ᳑ÕᯕݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵ᨱᵝ۵ᩢ⨆᮹ᱶࠥෝ᦭ᦥᅕʑ᭥⧕

⫭ȡᇥᕾᮥᝅ᜽⦹ᩡ݅. ݉ᙽ⫭ȡᇥᕾđŝvᬑ᪡ℕq᪉ࠥ2aḡ

ʑᔢ᳑Õᨱᕽ ᮁ᮹⦽ ༉⩶᜾ᯕ ࠥ⇽ࡹᨩ݅.

ᖅྙ᳑ᔍ۵☖ĥᱢᮝಽᮁ᮹⦽đŝaӹ᪉vᬑ᪡ℕq᪉ࠥ, 2 aḡḡ⢽ᨱš⦽ᖅྙᮥᝅ᜽⦹ᩡ݅. əđŝ⠪ᔢ᜽ᨱ᮲ݖᯱ

ᵲ᧞50%ᯙᬱᯕქᜅෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩡ۵ߑ, vᬑaၽᔾ⦹Łℕq᪉ࠥ

aԏᦥḡᯱქᜅᖁ┾ᯕ᧞30%ݡಽqᗭ⦽ၹ໕, ᜚ᬊ₉᪡ḡ⦹℁

᮹ᖁ┾ᮡ᧞10%a᷾a⦹ᩡ݅. ᙹ݉ᖁ┾᜽☖⧪᜽eŝᱲɝᖒᮥ

aᰆᵲ᫵⦹íᔾb⦹ᩡŁ, ᙹ݉ᱥ⪹ᯕᮁಽ۵ᇩ⠙⧉, Ʊ☖⪝ᰂ,

᧝᫙י⇽ ↽ᗭ⪵, ᦩᱥᖒ ᙽᮝಽ ӹ┡ԍ݅.

ʑᔢᦦ⪵᜽ݡᵲƱ☖ᯕᬊᯱॅᮡᱷᮡᬑᔑᔍᬊᮝಽᯙ⦽ᇩ⏭

qၰᇩ⠙⧉ᮥaᰆⓑᙹ݉ᱥ⪹ᯕᮁಽᎲᦹ݅. ə᫙ᨱࠥʑᔢᦦ⪵

᜽ၽᔾ⦹۵Ʊ☖⪝ᰂၰvᬑӹ⇵᭥ಽᯙ⦽᧝᫙י⇽ᮥ↽ᗭ⪵⦹

ಅ۵ Ğ⨆ᯕ ӹ┡ԍ۵ߑ, ᯕ్⦽ ᬱᯙᯕ ᬕᩢᱢ(႑₉᜽e ݉⇶

॒) ᜽ᖅᱢ(ქᜅᚹ░(shelter) ᖅ⊹॒)ᮝಽ}ᖁࡽ݅໕, ʑᔢ᳑Õ ᮹ ᇡᱶᱢᯙ ᩢ⨆ᮥ ↽ᗭ⪵ ᜽┍ ᙹ ᯩᮥ äᮝಽ ʑݡࡽ݅.

⨆⬥ʑᔢ᳑Õᨱ঑ෙǍℕᱢᯙݡᵲƱ☖᜽ᖅ}ᖁႊᦩࠥ⇽ᮥ

᭥⦽ ⇵⬥ ᩑǍෝ ☖⧕ ݡᵲƱ☖ᯕᬊ ᱽŁෝ ʑݡ⧕ ᅙ݅.

References

Asad, J. K. and Andre, D. P. (1997). “The impact of adverse weather conditions on the propensity to change travel decisions : A survey of brussels commuters.” Transpn Res - A, Vol. 31, No.

3, pp. 181-203.

Jung, H. Y., Song, K. Y. and Kim, K. W. (2011). “Analysis of intra-city bus demand during rainfall using ordered probit model.”

Journal of Korean Society of Transportation, Korean Society of Transportation, Vol. 29, No. 5, pp. 43-54 (in Korean).

Kang, K. S. (2010). Excel statistics, Pakyoungsa (in Korean).

Korail (2011). Transport statistics, Available at: http://www.smrt.

co.kr.

Kwon, K. H., Oh, S. H., Lee, J. H. and Kim, T. H. (2010). “An analysis on determining quality of service criteria for expressway bus passengers using the importance-Performance analysis (IPA) - Focussing on yang-in city : Suji -.” Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 30, No. 3D, pp. 223-229 (in Korean).

Hofmann, M. and O'Mahony, M. (2005). “The impact of adverse weather conditions on urban bus performance measures.” The 8th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems.

Muhammad, S., Mark, J. K. and Piet, R. (2009). “The impact of weather conditions on mode choice : Empirical evidence for the netherlands.” VU University.

Park, K. Y., Lee, S. B. (2012). “A study on the effect of adverse weather conditions on public transportation mode choice.” Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 32, No. 61D, pp. 23-31 (in Korean).

Seoul Metro (2011). Transport statistics, Available at: http://

seoulmetro.co.kr.

Seoul Transport Operation & Information (2011). Daily bus demand, Available at: http://topis.seoul.go.kr.

Sim, Y. S. (2005). Analysis of bus demand characteristics in Seoul, Thesis, Master of Science, Seoul National University (in Korean).

Changnon, S. A. (1996). “Effects of summer precipitation on urban transportation.” Climatic Change, Vol. 32, pp. 481-494.

The National Weather Service (2011). Available at: http://www.

kma.go.kr.

The Seoul Metropolis (2011). Transportation statistics in Seoul, Available at: http://traffic.seoul.go.kr.

Stover, V. W. and McCormack, E. D. (2012). “The impact of weather on bus ridership in pierce county, Washington.” Journal of Public Transportation, Vol. 15, No. 1, 2012.

Zhan, G., Nigel, H. M. Wilson and Adam, R. (2007). “The impact

of weather on transit ridership in chicago.” TRB 2007 Annual

Meeting.

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The Effect of Weather Conditions on Transit Ridership

* Ğʑݡ⦺Ʊ ݡ⦺ᬱ ᕾᔍŝᱶ᳙ᨦ Ŗ⦺ᕾᔍ ([email protected])

Received September 17, 2013/ revised September 30, 2013/ accepted October 5, 2013

Copyright ⵑ 2013 by the Korean Society of Civil Engineers

 ǣǣȀȀǤǤȀͳͲǤͳʹ͸ͷʹȀ ǤʹͲͳ͵Ǥ͵͵Ǥ͸ǤʹͶͶ͹ Ǥ ǤǤ

ౖঃ׆ ȵଲஂ෹ ȵૈ਎ผ

Choi, Sang Gi*, Rhee, Jong Ho**, Oh, Seung Hwoon***

The Effect of Weather Conditions on Transit Ridership

ABSTRACT

Key words : Weather condition, Bus demand, Subway demand

Ⅹಾ

ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵vᬑ, ᇩ⏭ḡᙹ, vᖅ, ℕq᪉॒ࠥ4aḡʑᔢ᳑ÕᯕݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵ᨱᨕਅᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹۵ḡšಉ☖ĥᯱഭෝᯕᬊ⧕ᇥᕾᮥᝅ᜽

⦹Ł, ᖅྙ᳑ᔍෝ☖⧕əᯕᮁෝࠥ⇽⦹ᩡ݅. ༉ुᯱഭ۵ᯝ݉᭥ಽᙹḲ⦹ᩡŁ, ⠪ᯝ-ᵝัŝᩍ෥-ĉᬙಽǍᇥ⦹ᩍᇥᕾᮥᝅ᜽⦹ᩡ݅. ᇥᕾ

đŝ, ᔹ⥭ᙹaᇡ᳒⦽vᖅᮥᱽ᫙⦹Ł۵vᬑ, ᇩ⏭ḡᙹ, ℕq᪉ࠥ᮹ʑᔢ᳑ÕᯕݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵ෝ᧞27% qᗭ᜽┅۵äᮝಽӹ┡ԍ݅. ᙹ

ݡᔢᮝಽᖅྙᮥᝅ᜽⦽đŝ, ⠪ᔢ᜽ᨱ᮲ݖᯱᵲ᧞50%aქᜅෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩡ۵ߑ, ᯕᵲvᬑaၽᔾ⦹Ñӹℕq᪉ࠥaԏᦥḡ໕ქᜅᯕᬊᯕ

᧞30%ݡಽqᗭࡹ۵ၹ໕, ᜚ᬊ₉᪡ḡ⦹℁☖⧪ᮡ᧞10% ᷾aࡹ۵äᮝಽᇥᕾࡹᨩ݅. ᅙᩑǍđŝ۵ʑ⬥ᄡ⪵ᨱ঑ෙݡᵲƱ☖ᱶ₦ၰᬕ

ᩢႊჶđᱶᨱʑⅩᯱഭಽᔍᬊࡹᨕḩᙹᯩᮥäᮝಽʑݡࡽ݅.

áᔪᨕ ʑᔢ᳑Õ, ქᜅᙹ᫵, ḡ⦹℁ᙹ᫵



1. ᕽು

1.1 ઴֜ଭࢼլࢫࡧୡ

ݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵ᨱᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹۵᫵ᯙᮡʑᔢ᳑Õ, ᜚ᬊ₉ᅕᮁݡ ᙹ, ᮁa, ᫵ɩ, ᕽእᜅᙹᵡ, ࠥಽ⩥⫊॒ᩍ్aḡaᯩ݅. ʑᔢ᳑Õ

ᮥ ᱽ᫙⦽ ݅ෙ ᫵ᯙॅᮡ ŝÑᇡ░ ⩥ᰍʭḡ Йᵡ⦹í ᩑǍa

ࡹŁᯩŁ, ݡᵲƱ☖ᯕᬊ⪽ᖒ⪵ᱶ₦ᨱฯᮡᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹Łᯩ݅.

⦹ḡอݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵ᨱḢᱲᱢᯙᩢ⨆ᮥᵝ۵ʑᔢ᳑Õᯕ௝۵᫵

ᯙᮡ ǎԕᨱᕽ᮹ ᩑǍa ๅᬑ ऽྙ ᔢ⫊ᯕ݅.

ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵ᩍ్aḡʑᔢ᳑ÕॅᯕݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵ᨱᨕਅ

ᩢ⨆ᮥ, ᨝ษӹၙ⊹۵ḡ☖ĥᯱഭෝ☖⧕ᇥᕾ⦹Ł, əᯕᮁෝ

ᖅྙ᳑ᔍෝ ☖⧕ ࠥ⇽⦹ᩡ݅. ᅙ ᩑǍ đŝ۵ ʑ⬥ᄡ⪵ᨱ ঑ෙ

ݡᵲƱ☖ᱶ₦ၰᬕᩢႊჶđᱶᨱʑⅩᯱഭಽᔍᬊࡹᨕݡᵲƱ☖

ᕽእᜅᙹᵡၰ᜽ᖅ}ᖁᮥᮁࠥ⦹Ł, ₉⬥ݡᵲƱ☖ᯕᬊᮥᱽŁ᜽

┅۵ߑ ᩎ⧁ᮥ ⧁ äᮝಽ ʑݡࡽ݅.

1.2 ઴֜ଭ࣐଍ࢫࢺ࣑

ᩑǍ᮹᜽eᱢჵ᭥۵1֥☖ĥ⊹a᳕ᰍ⦹۵aᰆ↽ɝ֥ࠥᯙ

2011 ֥ᮝಽᱶ⦹ᩡŁ, Ŗeᱢჵ᭥۵ݡᵲƱ☖ᇥݕᮉᯕ2009֥

ʑᵡ63%ᯕŁ, ݡᵲƱ☖ᯕᬊ~ᯕ2011֥ʑᵡᯝ⠪Ɂ10,783,000

໦ᯙ ᕽᬙ᜽ಽ ⦽ᱶ⦹ᩡ݅.

ԕᬊᱢჵ᭥ಽ۵ʑᔢᯱഭෝⓍí4aḡ(᜽eݚvᙹప, vᖅప, ᇩ⏭ḡᙹ, ℕq᪉ࠥ)ಽᇥඹ⦹ŁݡᵲƱ☖ᯱഭ۵ქᜅ(᜽ԕქᜅ, ษᮥქᜅ)ᙹ᫵ၰḡ⦹℁ᙹ᫵ಽᇥඹ⦹ᩡ݅. ༉ुᯱഭ۵ᯝ݉᭥ෝ

ʑᵡᮝಽ⦹Ł, ݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵۵᜚₉ᯙᬱᮥʑᵡᮝಽᇥᕾᨱᔍᬊ

⦹ᩡ݅.

ᩑǍႊჶᮝಽ۵Ⓧíࢱaḡಽӹځḡ۵ߑ, ☖ĥᱢᇥᕾŝᖅྙ

᳑ᔍᇥᕾᮝಽǍᇥࡽ݅. ☖ĥᱢᇥᕾᮡ1₉ᱢᮝಽbʑᔢ᳑Õᨱ

঑௝ݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵᮹ᄡ⪵పᨱݡ⧕ᇥᕾ⦹Ł, əᄡ⪵aʑᔢ᳑Õ ᮹ᩢ⨆ভྙᯕ௝۵aᖅᮥᖅᱶ⦽अ, ༉⠪Ɂ₉ᯕá᷾ჶᮥᯕᬊ⦹

ᩍaᖅá᷾ᮥ⦹ᩡ݅. ݅ᮭ݉ĥಽbb᮹ʑᔢ᳑ÕŝݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ

᫵᮹ᔢššĥ᮹ᱶࠥෝ᦭ᦥᅕʑ᭥⧕ᔢšᇥᕾᮥᝅ᜽⦹ᩡ݅.

ษḡสᮝಽbb᮹ʑᔢ᳑Õ᮹ᩢ⨆ᱶࠥෝᯱᖙ⦹í᦭ᦥᅕʑ᭥

⦹ᩍ⫭ȡᇥᕾᮥᝅ᜽⦹ᩍ⫭ȡ᜾ᮥࠥ⇽⦹ᩡᮝ໑, ☖ĥᱢᇥᕾ

đŝෝ ᝅᱽ ᖅྙᮥ ☖⦹ᩍ á᷾⦹ᩍ ᅕᦹ݅.

2. ᖁ⧪ᩑǍŁₑ

2.1 ֝ٛটෘ઴֜ճఝ

ᝍ᧲ᖎ(2005)ᮡᕽᬙ᜽ქᜅיᖁᄥ1ᯝᯕᬊᯱᯱഭෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍ

ქᜅᙹ᫵᮹✚ᖒၰᙹ᫵ᄡ⪵, vᬑ᪡vᖅᨱ঑ෙქᜅᙹ᫵ᄡ⪵

॒ᮥᇥᕾ⻰á☁⦹ᩡ݅. əđŝาᮡԁᨱእ⧕እa᪅۵ԁ

ქᜅᙹ᫵aqᗭ⦹۵äᮝಽӹ┡ԍŁ, יᖁᄥ✚ᖒᮝಽ۵ḡᖁ

ၰ ษᮥქᜅᅕ݅ eᖁქᜅ᮹ qᗭ⡎ᯕ ⓑ äᮝಽ ӹ┡ԍ݅.

ᱶ⨭ᩢ(2011)ᮡᝅᱽ᜽ԕქᜅᯕᬊᯱෝݡᔢᮝಽvᬑᨱ঑ෙ

᜽ԕქᜅᯕᬊᝅ┽᪡vᬑపᨱ঑ෙ᜽ԕქᜅᯕᬊ᮹᜾ᮥ᳑ᔍ⦹

ᩡ݅. ᯕෝၵ┶ᮝಽᙽᕽ⩶⥥ಽኸ༉⩶ᮥ☖⦽vᬑᨱ঑ෙ᜽ԕქ ᜅᩩ⊂༉⩶ᮥǍ⇶⦹ᩡŁ, vᬑపᨱ঑ෙ᜽ԕქᜅᯕᬊ┥ಆࠥᨱ

ݡ⦹ᩍᇥᕾ⦹ᩡ݅. ༉⩶Ǎ⇶đŝ᜽ԕქᜅᯕᬊኩࠥa׳ᮡ

᮲ݖᯱᯝᙹಾ, ᩑಚᯕ׳ᮥᙹಾ᜽ԕქᜅᯕᬊ⪶ශᯕ׳ᮡäᮝಽ

ӹ┡ԍ݅. ੱ⦽☖ɝ⻰☖⦺᮹☖⧪༊ᱢᯕ݅ෙ☖⧪༊ᱢᅕ݅ᯕᬊ

⪶ශᯕ׳ᮝ໑, ₉పᮥᗭᮁ⦹ḡᦫᮡ᮲ݖᯱ᮹Ğᬑ׳ᮡᯕᬊ⪶ශ

ᮥ ᅕᯕ۵ äᮝಽ ӹ┡ԍ݅.

ၶɝᩢ(2012)ᮡ 2010֥ ᇡᔑ᜽ ݡᵲƱ☖ᯱഭ᪡ vᬑᯱഭෝ

ᯕᬊ⦹ᩍ vᬑᯝŝ าᮡԁ᮹ ☖⧪Õᙹ᪡ ☖⧪ɩᧂᮥ እƱ⦹Ł, ᖅྙ᳑ᔍෝᝅ᜽⦹ᩡ݅. əđŝ᧞⦽እᅕ݅v⦽እᯝᙹಾქᜅ☖

⧪ᯕᵥᨕऽ۵äᮝಽӹ┡ԍᮝ໑, ᵝั᮹Ğᬑ⠪ᯝŝእƱ⧩ᮥ

ভ✚⯩ฯᮡ₉ᯕෝᅕᯕ۵äᮝಽӹ┡ԍ݅. ݡʑ᜽eྙᱽ᪡

ქᜅᱶඹᰆᇩ⠙ᯕvᬑ᜽ქᜅ☖⧪ᮥ⦹ḡᦫ۵aᰆⓑᯕᮁಽ

ӹ┡ԍ݅.

2.2 ැ૤টෘ઴֜ճఝ

Stanley A. Changnon (1996) ᮡ᜽⋕Ł᮹3֥eߑᯕ░ෝᯕᬊ

⦹ᩍvᬑaƱ☖ᨱᵝ۵ᩢ⨆ᮥᩑǍ⦹ᩡ݅. Ʊ☖ᔍŁ, Ʊ☖ప, ݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵᫙ᨱࠥᅕ✙ӹ⧎Ŗᇥ᧝ᨱšಉࡽᇥ᧝ࠥ⧉̹ᇥᕾ

⦹ᩡ݅. እa᪅۵࠺ᦩݡᵲƱ☖ᙹ᫵۵3ⴇ5% qᗭ⦹ᩡŁ, ݡᇡᇥ

9 ᜽ᇡ░ 16᜽࠺ᦩ᮹ qᗭಽ ӹ┡ԍ݅.

Asad and Ande (1997)۵ᝅᔾ⪽ᨱᕽᯝၹᱢᯙᔢ⫊ŝᩩᔢ⊹

༜⦽☖⧪᳑Õ⦹ᨱ☖⧪⦹۵ᔍ௭᮹⧪࠺ᮥᯕ⧕⦹ʑ᭥⧕ᄉʑᨱ ᮹ቭඝᖡᔍ௭ॅᮥݡᔢᮝಽᖅྙ᳑ᔍෝᝅ᜽⦹ᩡ݅. ᜚ᬊ₉ෝ

ᯕᬊ⦹ᩍ☖ɝᮥ⦹۵ᔍ௭ᮥḲᵲᱢᮝಽᩑǍ⦹ᩡ۵ߑ, əđŝ

ᱩၹᱶࠥaᳬḡᦫᮡʑᔢ᳑Õᨱ᮹⧕☖⧪➉▕ᮥᄡ⪵᜽⎑݅.

60% ۵ᯱᝁ᮹⇽ၽ᜽eᮥᄡĞ⦹ᩡŁ, 35%۵ݡℕיᖁᮝಽႊ⨆

ᮥ࠭ಙ݅. ษḡสᮝಽ⥥ಽኸ༉⩶ᮥ☖⧕ᙹ݉ᖁ┾ŝ⇽ၽ᜽eᮥ

ǣǣȀȀǤǤȀͳͲǤͳʹ͸ͷʹȀǤʹͲͳ͵Ǥ͵͵Ǥ͸ǤʹͶͶ͹ ǤǤǤ

ౖঃ׆ȵଲஂ෹ȵૈ਎ผ

Choi, Sang Gi, Rhee, Jong Ho, Oh, Seung Hwoon

áᔪᨕ ʑᔢ᳑Õ, ქᜅᙹ᫵, ḡ⦹℁ᙹ᫵