1 Report for

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Daily Report for Thursday, June 22, 2017

1 Report for

Thursday, June 22, 2017 Mehr 1, 1396

* Highlights. Page 2

* News Briefs. Page 3

* Swearing-in ceremony date change. Page 3

* Who ordered missile attack? Page 3

* Coup in Saudi Arabia? Page 4

* Saudi prince’s elevation triggers alarm in Tehran. Page 5

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2 Highlights

 In what could be perceived as ongoing differences between Supreme Leader and the President, IRGC says that Supreme Leader ordered missile strikes, while President Rouhani and his intelligence minister say SNSC and president [as chairman of SNSC] ordered the strikes. Of course, since SNSC ordered the missile strikes, then it could be argued both ways. After all, Supreme Leader is Iran’s commander-in-chief, while President is chairman of SNSC. (See Page 3)

 It is predicted that tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran will further increase after changes in Saudi Arabia and express the worry that Riyadh will work more closely with Washington and regional states to counter the Islamic Republic and its allies. (See Page 5)

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3 Briefs

* Farsi-language Iranian foreign-based news websites are highlighting the news that Israeli newspaper Haaretz has quoted Israeli military sources as saying that of the seven missiles fired at the ISIS-held Syrian town of Deir el-Zour, only two were reported to have reached their target. Three of the rockets fell outside Syrian territory, in Iraq, while the remaining two fell somewhere inside Syria, missing their targets by many kilometers.

* Farsi-language reformist newspaper Arman, decorated its front page with the headline “Rocket Shock”, hailed the country’s security. It writes that Iran today is the same Iran during the sacred defense, the 8-year war against Saddam Hussein’s army, which not only refuses to bow down in the face of oppression and carnage, but also gives powerful, unforeseen responses to the US, Daesh and their henchmen.

* Farsi-language website Aftab News writes that a Saudi opposition figure Dr. Saad al-Dosari says that there will be a revolution soon in Saudi Arabia that will toppling the ruling family.

* Farsi-language reformist newspaper Aftab Yazd called the missile strikes a

“Terrible Revenge” in its headline and referred to the Supreme Leader’s remarks downplaying Tehran terror attacks as minor firework. “It is now clearer than ever why the Tehran terrorist attacks were called firework.

In fact, those attacks were just firework compared to six missiles precisely hitting a building in Deir ez- Zor, in east of Syria,” it writes.

* Farsi-language website Aftab News writes that Iranian security forces have confiscated 28,300 ammunition and guns in the past two months across Iran.

Swearing-in ceremony date change

Farsi-language Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) writes that Majlis Presiding Board Spokesperson Behrouz Nemati says that the swearing-in ceremony for newly re-elected President Rouhani has been delayed.

The swearing-in ceremony was scheduled to be held on Sunday, August 6. He said that the date would be duly announced by the Majlis Presiding Board. It is not clear whether only the date for the swearing-in ceremony has been changed, or both the ceremonies have been rescheduled.

According to Iran’s constitution Article 110, a ceremony must be held in which the Supreme Leader signs the decree formalizing the election of the president who has been elected by the people. According to Iranian news media, this ceremony was scheduled to be held on Thursday, August 3.

The formalization ceremony [Supreme Leader] for President Rouhani’s first term was held on August 3, 2013 and the swearing-in ceremony was held in Majlis on August 4, 2013.

Who ordered missile attack?

Farsi-language state-owned newspaper Iran writes that IRGC Public Relations has announced that the Sunday’s missile strikes were ordered by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

Interestingly this announcement comes one day after President Rouhani said that IRGC’s action [missile strike] was not a decision made by one single person or a military organization. Rather, he said, it was a decision made by the Supreme National Security Council.

Addressing a group of clerics on Tuesday, President Rouhani said that SNSC made the decision to carry out the missile attack after Daesh twin attacks in Tehran

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In a separate news, Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) reports that Intelligence Minister Mahmoud Alavi said on Wednesday that SNSC made the decision for the missile attack. He went on to say that the president, as the chairman of the SNSC, ordered the armed forces to give resounding response to Daesh in Syria. He said that this order was approved by top military commanders.

Coup in Saudi Arabia?

Farsi-language Mehr News Agency writes about changes in Saudi Arabia. Under the headline “A soft coup in Saudi Arabia; bin Salman’s dream fulfilled,” the conservative Mehr News Agency wrote:

“Whispers of a power struggle in the House of Saud have long been heard, a struggle ongoing between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef and Mohammed bin Salman. Since Saudi King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz is aging and suffers from various illnesses, including Alzheimer’s, it is therefore natural that the power-thirsty Saudi princes fight each other to take over the kingdom’s throne after King Salman’s [death].”

Conservative Tasnim News Agency writes, “All the actions of the king of Saudi Arabia to bring his son to power were pre-planned, but this was taking place gradually and slowly so that they would not face any opposition within the Saudi court.” The conservative news agency said that since Mohammed bin Salman did not have the necessary experience to run the country, his father

granted him extensive authority so that he could portray himself as a powerful figure both at home and abroad.

Noting the declining power of Mohammed bin Nayef due to the king’s recent decrees, Tasnim writes, “The recent crisis between Saudi Arabia and Qatar revealed the disagreements inside the ruling dynasty more than in the past. Mohammed bin Nayef remained silent about the recent developments, and it has been said that he had a good and strong relationship with the Qatari emir, and some of the political observers believe this issue was one of the reasons for his removal.”

Reformist Iranian Students’ News Agency (ISNA) also argued that a coup against Mohammed bin Nayef had taken place. ISNA pointed the finger at US President Donald Trump as the man who helped the young prince rise to power.

“Every Saudi prince needs three power levers to become king: America, the Saudi royal family and the people of Saudi Arabia. It seems that the first two levers overcame the third. Preparing the ground [for his ascent], Mohammed bin Salman passed the first two obstacles easily.

Recently, a document was leaked that disclosed that bin Salman and Donald Trump had reached a deal with each other during his presidential campaign over [bin Salman’s] ascending to the throne. … This morning, when King Salman made this surprising decision, we could see that Trump had shown his green light,” ISNA writes.

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5 Saudi prince’s elevation

triggers alarm in Tehran

 Saudi King Salman’s appointment of his son Mohammed bin Salman to be first in line to the throne has sent shockwaves in Tehran.

 While the Iranian government has not officially reacted to the announcement yet, the country’s state media warn that the 31-year-old prince will pursue a more aggressive policy vis-a-vis Iran pointing out that bin Salman has made explicit threats against the Islamic Republic, has cultivated close ties with the Trump administration, and has not shied away from confronting Iran’s proxies in Yemen, Syria and the broader region.

 These outlets predict that tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran will further increase and express the worry that Riyadh will work more closely with Washington and regional states to counter the Islamic Republic and its allies.

 Mohammed bin Salman, who is also the kingdom’s defense minister, replaced Prince Mohammed bin Nayef as the crown prince.

 Another Fars article said President Donald Trump and bin Salman have developed a close rapport citing the latest arms deal between Riyadh and Washington and the creation of a U.S.-backed “Arab NATO” to counter Iran’s regional ambitions.

 chief commander Mohsen Rezaei, wrote that the “housecleaning at the top of Saudi Arabia’s power structure” would have significant repercussions for Iran opining that bin Salman will soon become king because his father’s health is deteriorating.

 “Of course, the influence of Muhammad bin Salman in Saudi Arabia’s domestic and foreign policies was already evident; but his official designation as the crown prince to succeed his father in fact means legitimizing everything that has happened and will most likely continue.

 The conservative Mashregh newspaper also warned that bin Salman will now have more “freedom of action” in pursuing his regional policies particularly relating to hostile actions against Iran, support for Sunni militant groups in the region, Saudi role in the Yemeni war and “normalization of relations with the Zionist regime.” Last month, bin Salman said in an interview that Riyadh would not wait for Iran to take over Yemen and threaten Saudi security and would instead “work so that the battle is for them inside Iran.”

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The Middle East Institute. By Ahmad Majidyar. Dated Jun 21, 2017: Saudi King Salman’s appointment of his son Mohammed bin Salman to be first in line to the throne has sent shockwaves in Tehran. While the Iranian government has not officially reacted to the announcement yet, the country’s state media warn that the 31- year-old prince will pursue a more aggressive policy vis-à-vis Iran – pointing out that bin Salman has made explicit threats against the Islamic Republic, has cultivated close ties with the Trump administration, and has not shied away from confronting Iran’s proxies in Yemen, Syria and the broader region. These outlets predict that tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran will further increase and express the worry that Riyadh will work more closely with Washington and regional states to counter the Islamic Republic and its allies.

“Political earthquake in Riyadh”

On Wednesday, King Salman designated his son as his successor, giving the ambitious prince more powers as the kingdom seeks to diversify its economy and faces security challenges from its regional rival Iran. Mohammed bin Salman, who is also the kingdom’s defense minister, replaced Prince Mohammed bin Nayef as the crown prince. Earlier today, President Donald Trump called the kingdom’s new crown prince and the two leaders pledged to work together to tackle issues of mutual concern.

The promotion of bin Salman has raised alarm in Tehran. The most alarmist reports and opinion pieces were published in outlets affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.). Tasnim News Agency, for example, called the succession announcement in Riyadh a “soft coup” and claimed it was approved by Washington, adding that the Trump administration is pleased with bin Salman’s anti-Iran stance.

Fars News Agency, also an I.R.G.C. mouthpiece, called it a “political earthquake in Riyadh.” Another Fars article said President Donald Trump and bin Salman have developed a close rapport – citing the latest arms deal between Riyadh and Washington and the creation of a U.S.-backed “Arab NATO” to counter Iran’s regional ambitions. “Trump’s footprint is apparent in these decisions,” it alleged.

Implications for Iran

Iranian media also examined potential ramifications of the leadership change in Riyadh to Iran’s internal security and geopolitical interests in the Middle East.

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Tabnak News Agency, which is affiliated with former I.R.G.C. chief commander Mohsen Rezaei, wrote that the “housecleaning at the top of Saudi Arabia’s power structure” would have significant repercussions for Iran – opining that bin Salman will soon become king because his father’s health is deteriorating. “Of course, the influence of Muhammad bin Salman in Saudi Arabia’s domestic and foreign policies was already evident; but his official designation as the crown prince to succeed his father in fact means legitimizing everything that has happened and will most likely continue. This development has many implications for Iran,” it argued.

The paper cautioned that the soon-to-be king, unlike previous Saudi rulers, does not hesitate to engage in regional conflicts. It claimed bin Salman started the war in Yemen without prior consultation with other Saudi authorities or the United States. It also alleged that bin Salman supported Syrian militant groups to fight pro-regime forces in Syria. “This means that Saudi Arabia’s hostile policy against Iran will perhaps continue with more vigor and for a long time in the future. Wars and clashes in the Middle Eastern region will probably intensify and there will be no political and peaceful solution to the crisis in Yemen and Syria for a long time,” it emphasized.

“His designation as the crown prince is an important signal to Iran.”

An article in state-run Islamic Republic News Agency called on the government to remain vigilant and take “intelligent” measures to potential actions by Saudi Arabia and the United States.

The conservative Mashregh newspaper also warned that bin Salman will now have more “freedom of action” in pursuing his regional policies – particularly relating to hostile actions against Iran, support for Sunni militant groups in the region, Saudi role in the Yemeni war and “normalization of relations with the Zionist regime.” It cautioned that bin Salman’s aspirations go beyond just domestic affairs and the new crown prince will “confront Iran at any cost to become the king of the Arab world.”

Heightening tension

Bin Salman’s designation as the kingdom’s crown prince comes at a time when relations between Riyadh and Tehran are arguably at their nadir in three decades.

Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies – as well as the United States and Israel – are increasingly troubled by Iran’s support for Shiite militant groups from Afghanistan to Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and beyond. The I.R.G.C.’s support to Shiite Houthi rebels in Yemen, the kingdom’s backyard, has particularly upset Saudi leaders.

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Last month, bin Salman said in an interview that Riyadh would not wait for Iran to take over Yemen and threaten Saudi security and would instead “work so that the battle is for them inside Iran.” He also ruled out the prospect of seeking dialogue with Tehran to resolve regional issues, arguing that the regime in Iran aimed to take over the Muslim world.

His remarks triggered angry reactions and threats in Tehran. The Iranian defense minister said that his country would hit back and destroy all of Saudi Arabia, except the Muslim holy sites, if Riyadh showed any aggression toward the Islamic Republic.

“I advise them against committing any ignorant move. But if they commit such a mistake, it is unlikely that anywhere in Saudi Arabia would remain intact with the exception of Mecca and Medina,” Brigadier General Hossein Dehghan warned in an exclusive interview with the Lebanese Al-Manar TV channel.

Moreover, Iranian leaders blamed Saudi Arabia and the United States for the terrorist attacks in Tehran earlier this month and vowed revenge, although the Islamic State claimed credit for the twin assaults. In the latest sign of escalating tension, Saudi Arabia said on Monday that its naval forces had captured three I.R.G.C. members who were navigating a boat laden with explosives toward the Saudi-owned Marjan oilfield.

Iranian officials confirmed the incident had happened but claimed those detained were

“simple fishermen” not I.R.G.C. personnel.