Recent labour market developments and Recent labour market developments and
policy challenges
Paul Swaim
OECD Employment, Labour and Social Affairs
Council
4 May 2012
The labour market impact of the crisis and early recovery period has been uneven across countries
OECD harmonised unemployment rates since December 2007, percentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data
8.5 9.5 10.5
%
OECD European Union United States
5.5 6.5 7.5
Source: OECD Main Economic Indicators Database.
4.5
The unemployment impact has differed greatly across countries
Unemployment rate before the crisis, at its peak and its latest value* in percentage of total labour force, quarterly data
18 20 22 24
Pre-crisis trough Peak Latest
8 10 12 14 16 18
0 2 4 6
Countries are shown in ascending order by the unemployment rate at its peak.
* Trough (peak) dates are defined as the start of the longest spell of consecutive increase (decrease) of the quarterly OECD harmonised unemployment rates since 2006 Q1.
Source: OECD calculations based on OECD Main Economic Indicators Database.
Long-term unemployed has increased in many OECD countries
Long-term unemployed (more than one year) as a percentage of total unemployed
12007 Q4 2011 Q4
50 60 70 80
%
10 20 30 40
Note: Countries are shown in ascending order of the incidence of long-term unemployment in 2011 Q3. From 2011 Q1 to 2001 Q3, the results for whole Japan excludes three prefectures (Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima) struck by the Great East Japan Earthquake, where the survey operation was suspended.
1. Data are not seasonally adjusted. OECD is the weighted average of 32 OECD countries excluding Chile and Korea.
Source: OECD calculations based on quarterly national Labour Force Surveys.
0
Falling employment has particularly affected youth, low- skilled and (to a lesser extent) men
Percentage change in employment,2007 Q4-2011 Q4
Both sexes -0.4
-1.4 0.8
-8.7
-1.1 Men
Women
Youth (aged 15-24) Prime-age (aged 25-54) Gender
Age groups
11.1
-7.8
-3.0 Older workers (aged 55-64)
Low-skilled Medium-skilled g g p
Education1
Note: Data are not seasonally adjusted. OECD is the weighted average of the OECD countries excluding Chile. Australia, Japan and New Zealand are also excluded for statistics by education.
1. Low-skilled refers to less than upper secondary education, medium-skilled to upper secondary education, and high-skilled to tertiary education.
Source: OECD estimates based on national Labour Force Surveys.
9.4
-12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
High-skilled
% change
NEET rates evolution across OECD countries, 2007-2011
Percentage of population aged 15-24
%
2007 Q1 2011 Q1
25 30 35 40
5 10 15 20
Note: 2007 Q2-2011 Q2 for Australia 2008 q1-2011 Q1 for Norway and 2007 Q2-2011 Q1 for Switzerland. No data for Japan in 2007 Q1.
OECD, EU-27, EU-21 and Euro area are weighted averages of 31 countries (Excl. Chile, Japan and Korea), 27, 21 and 17 European countries, respectively.
Source: OECD estimates based on national labour force surveys.
0
