Daily Report for Thursday, September 22, 2016
1
Report for
Thursday,
September 22, 2016 Mehr 1, 1395
Highlights, Page 2 News Briefs, Page 3 Other Stories, Page 3
What we talk about when we talk about „sanction beneficiaries‟? Page 5 Why Iran and Saudi Arabia will jaw-jaw but not war-war, Page 7
Daily Report for Thursday, September 22, 2016
2 Highlights
What the sanctions, together with domestic corruption, have done to Iran?
(See Page 5)
Despite increasingly tough rhetoric and a breakdown in diplomatic relations, neither Iran nor Saudi Arabia appears to be looking for a new fight. (See Page 7)
Daily Report for Thursday, September 22, 2016
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News Briefs
* Etemad newspaper reports that Attorney General Mohammad Jafar Montazeri says that there are 300 jailed Iranians in Malaysia charged with drug smuggling, 180 of whom have been sentenced to death.
* Mardom Salari newspaper reports that Tehran traffic police have ascertained that there are more than 500 schools located on the main streets across the capital. The traffic police will be posted near these schools from October 5 to prevent traffic violations that would lead to heavy traffic.
* Mardom Salari newspaper reports that police have discovered nine containers full of smuggled goods in Bandar Abbas. The police have stepped up their crackdown on smuggling.
* Mardom Salari newspaper reports that Isfahan police have discovered 46 tons of smuggled non-Iranian rice hidden in chemicals packages.
* Mardom Salari newspaper reports that Tehran police have arrested a fugitive who threw acid on a young woman because an argument over drugs.
* Mardom Salari newspaper reports that a collision between a truck, Paykan and Peugeot leaves two dead and three injured.
* Etemad newspaper reports that a car overturned in Jiroft [Kerman Province] causing the death of four persons.
* Mardom Salari newspaper reports that a collision between Peogut passenger car with a truck leaves behind one dead.
Other stories
U.S. should leave the Persian Gulf
Tasnim News Agency [conservative and seen as close to IRGC] reports that IRGC Navy and Artesh [regular army] Navy vessels participated in a maritime demonstration commemorating the first day of Sacred Defense Week in the southern port of Bandar Abbas on September 21.
IRGC Commander Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari stated, “Following the direction of the Supreme Leader and Commander in Chief [Ayatollah Ali Khamenei], we tell the Americans that it would be better if they stop wasting the American people‟s assets and wealth through their malicious and harmful presence in the Persian Gulf and go to the Bay of Pigs… This [the Persian Gulf] is our home, and we are very sensitive to the enemy roaming in our home.”
IRGC Navy Deputy Commander RADM Ali Reza Tangsiri similarly stated, “We regard the Persian Gulf as our home, and believe that no alien [forces] should be present in this region.” () (E) (Tasnim News Agency) (E) (Fars News Agency)
In a related news, Artesh [regular army] Navy Commander RADM Habibollah Sayyari stated that the Artesh Navy will unveil a Mowj-class corvette “in the near future.”
The Jamaran and the Damavand are two of the Mowj- class corvettes currently active in the Artesh Navy.
IRGC Navy Commander RADM Ali Fadavi stated that
“the underlying message of today‟s parade” is that “Iran has increased its defensive and offensive abilities in the maritime arena.”
Daily Report for Thursday, September 22, 2016
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Iranian armed forces hold parade in Tehran
Jomhouri Eslami conservative newspaper reports that Artesh, IRGC, Basij, and Law Enforcement Forces (LEF) units participated in a parade in Tehran marking the anniversary of the beginning of the Iran-Iraq War on September 21. “Foreign delegates” were also present at the ceremony.
Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Secretary Ali Shamkhani vowed that Iran “has never intended to be aggressive but will give a powerful response to any aggressor” during a speech at the parade.
IRGC Maj. Gen. Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, the new head of the Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS), vowed that Iran will continue to “hold all military tests and war games” without “any delays or suspensions.”
The IRGC unveiled several new missile defense systems during the parade. Iranian news agencies reported that one of the new systems unveiled, the Zulfiqar missile, is a variant of the Fateh 110 surface-to-surface missile capable of carrying a multiple reentry vehicle (MRV). It also possesses
“pinpoint accuracy” and boasts a range of 750 kilometers, according to IRGC Air Force Commander Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh. Defense Minister IRGC Brig.
Gen. Hossein Dehghan will reportedly inaugurate the production line for the missile later this week. The parade also
displayed Sejjil and Emad medium-range ballistic missiles. S-300 surface-to-air missiles were on display as well.
IRGC claims that
arrested “Pakistani terrorists”
had Saudi support
Tasnim News Agency reports that the IRGC Ground Force Quds Base released a statement claiming that the two “Pakistani terrorists” recently arrested in Sistan and Baluchistan province “received financial support from Saudi Arabia.”
Iran have repeatedly accused Saudi Arabia of backing militant groups along Iran‟s western and southeastern borders.
The IRGC Quds Base is the IRGC Ground Forces‟ headquarters responsible for operations in Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan provinces.
110-year-old Iranian man getting married for sixth time
State-owned newspaper Iran reports that an Iranian man is getting married for sixth time at the age of 110.
The 110-year-old Ahmad Mohammad Eisa has gotten married for five times, and now is getting prepared for his sixth wife.
After an 82-year-old woman accepted his proposal of marriage, Ahmad announced that he is ready to get married once again.
The old man has 20 grandchildren and 40 grand grandchildren.
Daily Report for Thursday, September 22, 2016
5 What we talk about when we talk about
‘sanction beneficiaries’?
IRDiplomacy news website: Last Wednesday, pro-Rouhani media outlets quoted chief of Iran‟s Central Bank Valiollah Seif as saying that the nuclear deal has paved the ground for Iran to gradually return to the international scene, double its oil exports, and directly work with foreign firms. Speaking to a „resistance economy headquarters‟
summit held in the southern province of Kerman, Seif contrasted the new achievements with the pre-deal era in which “sanction beneficiaries” had devoured 15 percent of Iran‟s foreign trade, a reference to Ahmadinejad‟s second term as Iran‟s president.
Critics of the Rouhani administration emphasize that his cabinet has developed a habit of blaming every problem in the country on its predecessor, the Ahmadinejad administration. Apart from partisan competitions that may be involved, the truth is that the seemingly irreparable damage to Iran‟s economy under the oppressive sanctions was equally caused by domestic corruption and mismanagement.
On Monday, an article written by Negar Ahmadi appeared on Khabar Online, also a pro-Rouhani news agency, which did the math to figure out how much each Iranian individual had lost on average throughout the four years the article called “years of intensified sanctions”. In her explication of Seif‟s remarks, Ahmadi writes that Iran has spent $115 for every $100 of international transactions, which increased the costs of imports and exports at the same time, reducing, in turn, the economy‟s competitiveness.
The article estimates that sanction beneficiaries have pocketed $89.4 billion out of foreign trade in oil and non-oil imports and exports worth $596 billion, while Iran had difficulties to import food, medicine, and basic goods. The period concerned or the sources used for the estimation are not named. However, these figures provide the basis for the article to go on calculating what this could mean for Iranians.
In order to shed light on the magnitude of the figure, Ahmadi puts it in contrast with Iran‟s oil revenues in the last Persian calendar year (March 21, 2015 to March 19, 2016), which only amounted to $33 billion.
Daily Report for Thursday, September 22, 2016
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According to her article, the administration‟s sovereign debt, which stands somewhere between 500 to 600 billion tomans (approximately $160 to $190 billion), turned out during the same years when oil prices were at record highs. The amount embezzled by sanction beneficiaries could settle nearly half of the debt.
Half-finished construction projects need the injection of credit worth $127.5 billion and the embezzled chunk could provide for up to 67 percent of it, according to Kahabar Online. Saying that it takes $32 to $47 billion invested on construction projects to create 800 thousand jobs, the article concludes that the worth of 1.6 million jobs are in the pockets of a small part of the society.
Elsewhere in the article, an analogy is drawn between the development of Qatar‟s North Dome and Iran‟s South Pars. Ahmadi estimates the maximum cost for the development of each South Pars phase to be $4 billion and notes that the embezzled money could suffice to finance 22 phases, several times more than the credit needed to finish the development of the gas field.
The article goes on to say the money could finance the development of 89 airports similar in size to Imam Khomeini International Airport.
Finally yet importantly, the article divides the $90 b to the Iranian population of more than 78 million, the result of which is $1153 for each individual in the four years. This comes to light if the minimum wage of about $250 is taken into account. Under the targeted subsidy plan, already a burden for the administration, each individual receives $14.5 per month.
Daily Report for Thursday, September 22, 2016
7 Why Iran and Saudi Arabia will jaw-jaw
but not war-war
Al-Monitor news website: “You must understand that they [Iranians] are not Muslims, they are sons of Magi [Zoroastrians], and their hostility toward Muslims, especially the Sunnis, is an old one.” These are the words of the grand mufti of Saudi Arabia, Abdul-Aziz Al Sheikh, delivered Sept. 6. The unprecedented remarks are said to have been a response to the hajj message the Iranian supreme leader released the preceding day. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had stated, “Saudi officials are trying to cover up their enmity and hatred of the faithful and revolutionary people of Iran by talking about politicization of the hajj. They are small and pitiful devils who are very afraid of jeopardizing the interests of the big Satan, the United States.”
Although Iranian President Hassan Rouhani came to power in 2013 with the promise of easing tensions between Iran and other countries in the region, what is currently taking place between Tehran and Riyadh cannot in any way be considered a de- escalation. In his first press conference after being elected, Rouhani emphasized that Iran and Saudi Arabia areneighbors and brothers and therefore should forge closer relations. This ideal scenario remains an ideal. Exchanges between Iran and Saudi Arabia show that far from brotherly relations, the two sides openly consider the other the enemy.
The regional rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia is at a point where the two countries no longer even enjoy diplomatic relations. The immediate incident leading to this point was the January execution of the Saudi Shiite cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr and the subsequent attacks on Saudi diplomatic facilities by Iranian protesters. Other contributing factors include last year‟s hajj stampede, which left hundreds of Iranians dead, the sexual molestation of two Iranian youths while on the same pilgrimage and the Saudis‟ military intervention in Yemen.
Al-Monitor spoke with Javid Ghorban-Oghli, former director general of Middle East affairs at the Iranian Foreign Ministry, about these tensions. “The root of this conflict is the regional rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia,” Ghorban-Oghli said. “This process began after the [2003] downfall of Saddam Hussein and the regional imbalance that it created. The rivalry started between Iran and Riyadh in their
Daily Report for Thursday, September 22, 2016
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neighboring regions, and after the Arab Spring, the rivalry transferred to Syria, and it intensified.”
Ghorban-Oghli believes it is not helpful to try to determine which side is perhaps more responsible forescalating tensions. “We will not achieve anything by trying to look for the guilty party,” he said. “We should look for a win-win pattern of engagement similar to what was used during the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1. When a house is burning, we should first try to put out the fire and then look for the responsible person.”
Saudi arms purchases have recently dramatically increased. According to an estimate by the firm IHS, Riyadh planned last year to buy defense equipment worth close to
$10 billion, a whopping 42% increase compared to 2014 purchases. One of the reasons for the increase is the kingdom‟s military intervention in Yemen, but given the staggering size of the increase, is is conceivable that Saudi officials have another possible military conflict on their minds, that is, one with Iran?
No Iranian officials, including military commanders, have publicly broached the idea or possibility of armed conflict with Saudi Arabia. The closest to such a statement was a rare warning, on June 20, by Maj. Gen.Qassem Soleimani, head of external operations for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), to the Saudi-allied rulers of Bahrain. Soleimani said, “The supporters of Al Khalifa should know that insulting Ayatollah Sheikh Isa Qassim and the continuation of pressure on the people of Bahrain is the beginning of a bloody uprising, the consequences of which will be the responsibility of those who legitimize the arrogance of the rulers of Bahrain.” This message, Soleimani‟s harshest to a neighbor to date, implicitly targeted Saudi Arabia in light of Riyadh having dispatched troops to crush Arab Spring protests in Bahrain.
Earlier, on April 5, Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari, commander of the IRGC, had asserted, “The IRGC‟s answer regarding Saudi audacity in Bahrain is awaiting an order.” The most recent comments regarding this issue were made by Ali Fadavi, commander of the IRGC‟s naval operations. On July 16, Fadavi rejected the idea of enmity between Iran and Saudi Arabia, saying that it was “the enemy‟s” plan to pretend as if Iran now considered Saudi Arabia, rather than the United States, as its main adversary. Fadavi also emphasized, however, that if necessary, Iran could deliver irreparable blows to the Saudis.
Daily Report for Thursday, September 22, 2016
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Nosratollah Tajik, Iran‟s former ambassador to Jordan, told Al-Monitor, “As far as domestic affairs are concerned, especially given the generational gaps and new demands, the Saudi government is walking on a minefield. Iran should plan for an active and influential foreign policy by avoiding policies driven by slogans and adopting a coherent, comprehensive and intelligent strategy.”
There is, of course, the question of whether war between Iran and Saudi Arabia is a credible possibility. In this regard, Ghorban-Oghli said, “I hope that this is not the case, and I hope that wise people on both sides will step forward and prevent a war from taking place.” He added, “It is probably better if a mediator manages the [dialogue] process. We should remember that these tensions neither benefit Iran nor Saudi Arabia, only arms dealers, and more so, Israel.”
At a meeting at the Center for International Research and Education of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Sept. 13, Maj. Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, former commander of the IRGC (1997-2007) and now special adviser to Khamenei, said, “Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the United States are aware of Iran‟s geopolitical importance. They want to create tension in order to diminish our successes in Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria. We should avoid tension as best we can. I also suggest that Iran expand its relations with Oman, Kuwait and even Qatar. We should additionally exercise patience regarding the Saudis. We should not, under any circumstances, look for more tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia.”
