Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Council 1228
thSession 14 October 2010
Latest developments:
Labour markets
Stefano Scarpetta
Deputy Director, Employment, Labour and Social Affairs
OECD, Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs
Affairs OECD
Council
14 October 2010
Latest developments:
Labour markets
Slow, uneven and uncertain recovery in OECD labour markets
•
The OECD unemployment rate is still close to the historical peak•
Very uneven effects of the crisis on the labour markets of different OECD countries•
Slack in the labour market is even larger than that shown by the unemployment rate•
Large reductions in working time•
Di t th l t l d•
Discouragement among the long-term unemployed Risk of unemployment becoming entrenched
•
Many unemployed are experiencing long spells of joblessness with potentially negative effects on their human capital, job search activity and overallemployability
Difficult policy choices
•
How to tackle budget deficits while, at the same time, provide adequate support to the many unemployed and under-employed?The unemployment impact so far differs greatly across countries
OECD harmonised unemployment rates as a percentage of labour force
14 16 18 20 22
% December 2007 Peak August 2010
2 4 6 8 10 12
0 2
Last month available: June 2010 for Estonia, Greece, Turkey and the United Kingdom; July 2010 for Chile and Norway; and 2010 Q2 for Iceland, Israel, New Zealand and Switzerland (OECD harmonised unemployment rate data are not available on a monthly basis for the last three of these countries). Peak dates corresponds to the last month available for France, Ireland and Spain.
3
The increase in unemployment has been accompanied by growth of other forms of
unemployment and underemployment
Alternative measures of labour market slack, 2007 Q4-2009 Q4*
25 30
UR1: ILO unemployment rate
UR2: UR1 + persons marginally attached to the labour force UR3: UR2 + underemployed workers
10 15 20
4
0 5
2007 Q4
2009 Q4
2007 Q4
2009 Q4
2007 Q4
2009 Q4
2007 Q4
2009 Q4
2007 Q4
2009 Q4
2007 Q4
2009 Q4
2007 Q4
2009 Q4
2007 Q4
2009 Q4
2007 Q4
2009 Q4
2007 Q4
2009 Q4
JPN GBR DEU CAN FRA USA ITA ESP G7 OECD27
Job losses have been concentrated among youth, the low-skilled and men
Percentage change of employment over 2008 Q4 to 2009 Q4*
4
‐2.2
‐3 0
‐1.2
‐2.2 1.7
3 1 1.1
‐2.1
‐0.6
4
‐2 0 2
‐3.0
‐8.4
‐6.4
‐3.1
‐7.7
‐10
‐8
‐6
‐4
tal en en 24) 54) 5+) ed led ed yed ers ers
* Data on employment by work status refer to the period 2008Q2 to 2009Q2.
Tot Me Wome Youth (15‐2 Prime‐age (25‐5 Older workers (55 Low‐skill Medium‐skill High‐skill Self‐employ Permanent worke Temporary worke
Gender Age Education Work status
5
After a lag, long-term unemployment has begun to grow
Unemployment rate and share of long‐term unemployed (more than one year) as a percentage of total unemployment
35 38
9 10
Unemployment rate (left‐side scale)
Share of long‐term unemployed (right‐side scale)
26 29 32
6 7 8
20 23
4 5
2007 Q2 2008 Q2 2009 Q2 2010 Q2
Share of long-term unemployed in total unemployment, 2 nd quarters of 2007 and 2010
Long‐term unemployed (more than one year) as a percentage of total unemployment
% 2007 Q2 2010 Q2
50 55 60 65 70 75 80
% 2007 Q2 2010 Q2
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
0 5 10
7
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Thank you Thank you
OECD, Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs
