Council meeting, 15 March 2013
LATEST LABOUR MARKET DEVELOPMENTS AND SOME POLICY CHALLENGES, FEBRUARY 2013
John P. Martin Director
Employment, Labour and Social Affairs OECD
Council
15 March 2013
Labour market prospects remain grim in the Euro area but some improvement in the United States
Unemployment rates, 2007 Q4-2014 Q4
9 10 11 12 13
Euro area
5 6 7 8 9
OECD area
United States
Japan
2 Shaded area refers to the OECD economic projections.
Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD Economic Outlook Database.
3 4
2007 Q42008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Japan
Wide dispersion in unemployment rates and
new record highs have been reached in several countries
Unemployment rates
abefore the crisis, at its peak
band in 2012 Q4
c%
16 20 24 28
Pre-crisis trough Peak 2012 Q4
0 4 8 12
3 Note: Countries are shown in ascending order by the unemployment rate at its peak.
*: Information on data for Israel: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932315602.
a) For Israel, the series have been chained to take into account the break in series in 2012.
b) Trough (peak) dates are defined as the start of the longest spell of consecutive increase (decrease) of the quarterly unemployment rates since 2007 Q4.
c) 2012 Q3 for Greece, Switzerland, Turkey and the United Kingdom.
Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD Short-Term Indicators Database (Cut-off date: 8 March 2013).
The unemployment impact is particularly uneven across countries during the current jobs crisis
Unemployment rate volatility (based on coefficient of variation) in OECD countries
aduring the preceding and current economic crisis
bpreceding and current economic crisis
b0.55 0.6 0.65 0.7
70's 80's 90's 2000's Global financial crisis
0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55
4 a) Calculation based on the unemployment rates of 33 OECD countries (excluding Turkey).
b) Recessions are defined to begin at the preceding business-cycle peak of the OECD area output gap.
0.3 0.35
0 4 8 12 16 20
Quarters elapsed since the onset of the crisis
An alternative measure of the dispersion of unemployment rates across OECD countries a
OECD area unemployment rate and its minimum and maximum values among OECD countries, 1970 Q1 2012 Q3
1970 Q1-2012 Q3
20 24
28 Minimum
OECD Maximum
8 12 16
5 a: Blue shaded areas correspond to recession episodes (based on the output gap).
Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD Short-Term Indicators Database (Cut-off date: 8 March 2013).
0 4
Evolution of the dispersion of unemployment rates across OECD countries a
Coefficient of variation of the unemployment rates in OECD countries, 1970 Q1-2012 Q3
0 6 0.65 0.7 0.75 0.8
0 4 0.45 0.5 0.55 0.6
6 Note: Blue shaded areas correspond to recession (based on the output gap).
a) Calculation based on the unemployment rates of 33 OECD countries (excluding Turkey).
0.35 0.4
Employment growth in the recovery has been anaemic and turned negative again in the Euro area
% change (quarter-on-quarter) of non-agricultural dependent employment g (q q ) g p p y
Euro area United States Japan
0 0.5
%1
0 0.5
%1
0 0.5
%1
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0
2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0
2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0
7 -2 -2
Source: OECD estimates based on Eurostat, Quarterly National Accounts, Japan Statistics Labour Force Survey results, and BLS, Current Employment Statistics (Cut-off date: 8 March 2013).
Displacement increased following the crisis …
Percentage of employees aged 20 64 who are displaced from one year to the next
7%
2000-2008 2009-2010
4%
5%
6%
2000 2008 2009 2010
1%
2%
3%
8 Source: OECD estimates.
0%
JPN NZL FRA CAN RUS AUS KOR DEU SWE DNK PRT FIN USA GBR
Self-defined displacement Firm-identified displacement
While re-employment declined
Proportion of displaced workers who are re employed within one year by time period
100%
Average 2000-2008 Average 2009-2010
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
9 Source: OECD estimates.
0%
FRA KOR CAN JPN RUS USA NZL DNK AUS PRT GBR DEU USA FIN SWE
Self-defined displacement Firm-identified displacement
Thank you Thank you
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