Received August 1 2012, Revised September 27 2012, Accepted February 19 2013
Copyright ⵑ 2013 by the Korean Society of Civil Engineers
ǣǣȀȀǤǤȀͳͲǤͳʹͷʹȀ ǤʹͲͳ͵Ǥ͵͵Ǥ͵Ǥͳͳͳͷ
Ǥ ǤǤ
≂⡢ⷓ⊲⢚⡢㜚+ELV,#⟖⾏ⵎẊἺ#ⴲⱧ㬚#ቻḚ㝳㭇⢚ᇂ#㍒ⷓ
ଲઽ
Lee, Young Woo*
A Study on Estimating Route Travel Time Using Collected Data of Bus Information System
ABSTRACT
Recently the demands for traffic information tend to increase, and travel time might one of the most important traffic information. To effectively estimate exact travel time, highly reliable traffic data collection is required. BIS(Bus Information System) data would be useful for the estimation of the route travel time because BIS is collecting data for the bus travel time on the main road of the city on real-time basis. Traditionally use of BIS data has been limited to the realm of bus operating but it has not been used for a variety of traffic categories. Therefore, this study estimates a route travel time on road networks in urban areas on the basis of real-time data of BIS and then eventually constructs regression models. These models use an explanatory variable that corresponds to bus travel time excluding service time at the bus stop. The results show that the coefficient of determination for the constructed regression model is more than 0.950. As a result of T-test performance with assistance from collected data and estimated model values, it is likely that the model is statistically significant with a confidence level of 95%. It is generally found that the estimation for the exact travel time on real-time basis is plausible if the BIS data is used.
Key words : Route Travel Time, Bus Information System, Intelligent Transport Systems, Travel Time Distribution, Regression Analysis
Ⅹಾ
↽ɝb᳦Ʊ☖ᱶᅕᨱݡ⦽Ǎᙹᵡᯕ׳ᦥḡŁᯩᮝ໑əᵲᨱᕽࠥࠥƱ☖šญӹᯕᬊᯱ⊂໕ᨱᕽ☖⧪eᱶᅕ۵ๅᬑᮁᬊ⦽äᯕ݅. ᱶ
⪶ᖒ׳ᮡ☖⧪e᮹⇵ᱶᮥ᭥⧕ᕽ۵ᝁᖒ׳ᮡƱ☖ߑᯕ░᮹ᙹḲᯕ⦥ᙹᱢᮝಽǍࡽ݅. ქᜅᱶᅕᜅ▽(BIS)ᮡࠥᵝࠥಽෝᬕ⧪
⦹۵ԕქᜅෝݡᔢᮝಽ☖⧪eᱶᅕෝᝅeᮝಽᙹḲšญ⦹ŁᯩᨕĞಽ☖⧪e⇵ᱶᨱๅᬑᮁᬊ⦽ߑᯕ░⧁ᙹᯩ݅. ə్ӹʑ
᳕BISᙹḲߑᯕ░۵ԕქᜅ᮹ᬕ⧪ŝšಉࡽᱶᅕෝᔾᖒ⦹Łᦩԕ⦹۵ʑ܆ᨱอᱽ⦽ᱢᮝಽᔍᬊࡹŁᯩŁ݅᧲⦽ᇥᨱ⪽ᬊࡹḡ༜⦹Ł
ᯩ۵ᝅᱶᯕ݅. ᕽᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵BISෝ☖⧕ᝅeᮝಽᙹḲࡹŁᯩ۵ߑᯕ░ෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍĞಽ☖⧪eᮥ⇵ᱶ⦹ʑ᭥⦽ᩑǍෝᙹ⧪⦹
ᩡ݅. ԕქᜅ᮹ⅾ☖⧪eᨱᕽქᜅᱶඹᰆᕽእᜅeᮥᱽ⦽☖⧪eᮥᖅᄡᙹಽĞಽ☖⧪e⇵ᱶ༉⩶ᮥǍ⇶⦽đŝđᱶĥᙹ ( R
2)a༉ࢱ0.950ᯕᔢᯕᨩᮝ໑T-testෝ☖⦽áᱶđŝ☖ĥᱢᮝಽᮁ᮹⦽äᮝಽᇥᕾࡹᨩ݅. ᕽbaಽᄥಽBISෝ☖⧕ᙹḲࡹŁᯩ۵
ԕქᜅ᮹☖⧪eߑᯕ░ෝᖅᄡᙹಽᯕᬊ⦹໕ᝅeĞಽ☖⧪e⇵ᱶᯕa܆⧁äᮝಽ❱݉ࡽ݅.
áᔪᨕ Ğಽ☖⧪e, ქᜅᱶᅕᜅ▽, ḡ܆⩶Ʊ☖ℕĥ, ☖⧪eᇥ⡍, ⫭ȡ༉⩶
İࣀėॡ
1. ᕽು
1.1 ֜ଭࢼլࢫࡧୡ
↽ɝ ࠥಽᱥŲ⢽ḡ(VMS), ᜅษ✙⡑ ॒ ݅᧲⦽ ๅℕෝ ☖⦽
Ʊ☖ᱶᅕᱽŖᯕ⪽ၽ⧕ḡ໕ᕽᝁᖒ׳ᮡƱ☖ᱶᅕᨱݡ⦽Ǎ a׳ᦥḡŁᯩŁəᵲᨱᕽࠥ⇽ၽḡᨱᕽ༊ᱢḡʭḡ᮹Ğಽ☖⧪
e⇵ᱶᨱݡ⦽⦥ᖒᯕ׳ᦥḡŁᯩ݅. ə్ӹᱶ⪶ᖒ׳ᮡ
☖⧪e⇵ᱶᨱ۵ᔢݚ⦽ᨕಅᬡᯕᯩᮝ໑ᱶ⪶ᖒ׳ᮡƱ☖ᱶᅕ ᮹ᔾᖒᮥ᭥⧕ᕽ۵⦥ᙹᱢᮝಽƱ☖ᔢ⫊ᨱݡ⦽ᝁ⧁ᙹᯩ۵
ᝅeƱ☖ߑᯕ░᮹ᙹḲᯕǍࡽ݅. ə్ӹ݅᧲⦽Ʊ☖⩥ᔢᮥ
ӹ┡ԕ۵ߑᯕ░ෝᝅeᮝಽ༉ࢱ᳑ᔍ⦹۵äᮡๅᬑᨕಅᬕ
äᯕ ⩥ᝅᯕ݅.
↽ɝ᮹ ქᜅᱶᅕᜅ▽(BIS)᮹ ᬕᩢᮡ ᯕ్⦽ Ʊ☖ᱶᅕᙹḲ
⊂໕ᨱᕽๅᬑᵲ⦽᮹ၙෝaḥ݅. BIS۵ࠥ᮹ԕქᜅෝ
ݡᔢᮝಽᝅe᭥⊹⇵ᱢᯕa܆⦹໑ࠥ᮹ᵝaಽෝᵝ⧪⦹
۵ԕქᜅ᮹☖⧪eᱶᅕෝᝅeᮝಽᙹḲšญ⦹Łᯩ݅.
ԕქᜅ۵ᯝၹ₉పŝ࠺ᯝ⦽ࠥಽ᳑Õ, Ʊ☖᳑Õ, ᝁ⪙᳑Õᨱᕽ
ᬕ⧪⦹Łᯩ݅. ᕽBISᨱᕽᙹḲࡹŁᯩ۵ߑᯕ░۵݅᧲⦽
ࠥಽ᳑Õ, Ʊ☖᳑Õ, ᝁ⪙᳑Õᯕ༉ࢱၹᩢࡽߑᯕ░aᙹḲࡹŁ
ᯩ۵ äᮝಽ ᅝ ᙹ ᯩ݅.
ə్ӹḡ܆⩶Ʊ☖ℕĥ(ITS)᮹⦽ᇥᯙBIS᮹ᬕᩢᮥ☖⧕
ᙹḲࡽᮁᬊ⦹Łᝁᖒ׳ᮡߑᯕ░۵݅᧲⦽ᇥᨱ⪽ᬊࡹḡ
༜⦹ŁBISᜅ▽᮹ᬕᩢᨱᱽ⦽ᱢᮝಽᯕᬊࡹŁᯩ݅. ᯕ۵ITS ᮹᯦ࠥᬕᩢ݉ĥෝḡӹᜅ▽e☖⧊ᬕᩢၰߑᯕ░ᮖ⧊ᯕ
۵ ITSၽᱥႊ⨆ŝࠥ ᇡ⧊ࡹḡ ༜⦹۵ äᯕ݅.
ITS᮹ 7} ᇥ ᵲ ᩍ⧪ᯱᱶᅕŁɪ⪵, Ʊ☖ᱶᅕᮁ☖⪽ᖒ⪵, Ʊ☖šญ↽ᱢ⪵॒᮹ᇥ᮹ၽᱥᨱ⦥ᙹᱢᯙĞಽ☖⧪e᮹⇵
ᱶᮥ᭥⧕BIS ᙹḲߑᯕ░ෝ⪽ᬊ⦹۵äᮡITS᮹ၽᱥႊ⨆ŝࠥ
ᇡ⧊ࡽ݅. ੱ⦽ࠥƱ☖šญᯱ᯦ᰆᨱᕽ۵Ğಽ☖⧪e⇵ᱶᮥ
☖⧕ITS᮹⦹ᇡᜅ▽ᯙVMS᮹ᬕᩢ, ⪝ᰂḡᩎᬑ⫭ᮁ॒ࠥ
ࠥƱ☖šญᨱ⪽ᬊ⦹Łᬕᱥᯱᨱí۵ᱶ⪶ᖒ׳ᮡĞಽ☖⧪e
ᱶᅕෝ ᱽŖ⧉ᮝಽ៉ อ᳒ࠥෝ ׳ᯝ ᙹ ᯩᮥ äᮝಽ ʑݡࡽ݅.
ᕽᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵BISෝ☖⧕ᝅeᮝಽᙹḲࡹ۵ԕქ ᜅ᮹☖⧪eᱶᅕෝ ᯕᬊ⦽ࠥᇡᵝࠥಽ᮹Ğಽ☖⧪e
⇵ᱶᮥ☖⧕ʑ᳕ITS ᙹḲᯱഭ᮹⪽ᬊᖒᮥ׳ᯕŁࠥƱ☖šญᨱ
ᯕᬊ⦹Łᬕᱥᯱᨱíᝁᖒ ׳ᮡ☖⧪eᱶᅕෝᱽŖ⦹۵ߑ
⪽ᬊࢁ ᙹ ᯩ۵ ʑⅩᱢᯙ ᩑǍෝ ᙹ⧪⦹۵ߑ ༊ᱢᯕ ᯩ݅.
1.2 ֜ଭ࣐ࢫࢺ࣑
ᅙᩑǍ᮹༊ᱢᯙĞಽ☖⧪e᮹⇵ᱶᮥ᭥⧕ᕽ۵ᩍ్}᮹
ยⓍಽǍᖒࡽaಽ⇶ᮥᵝ⧪⦹۵༉ु₉ప᮹☖⧪eᱶᅕෝ
ᱥᙹ᳑ᔍ⦹ᩍ⦽݅. ᕽ⩥ᰆ᳑ᔍෝ☖⦽ߑᯕ░᮹ᙹḲᮡ
⩥ᝅᱢᮝಽ ᇩa܆⦹݅.
ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵ᯕ్⦽ྙᱽᱱᮥŁಅ⦹ᩍ᳑ᔍߑᯕ░᮹ᙹḲᨱ
ဍ౩ᯕᖹᇥᕾᮥᯕᬊ⦹ᩡ݅. ⩥ᰆᩍÕᮥ∊ᇥ⯩ၹᩢ⦽ᇥᕾᮥ
᭥⧕⩥ᰍBISᜅ▽ᯕǍ⇶ࡹᨕᬕᩢᵲᯙࠥෝݡᔢᮝಽ3}
ᵝaಽ⇶29}ยⓍ᮹ࠥಽ᳑Õ, ᝁ⪙᳑Õᮥ⩥ᰆ᳑ᔍ⦹ᩍဍ ౩ᯕᖹ༉⩶Ǎ⇶ᨱəݡಽၹᩢ⦹ᩡᮝ໑ქᜅיᖁࠥ ᝅᱽᬕᩢ
ᵲᯙԕქᜅ᮹Ğಽ, ႑₉e॒ᮥၹᩢ⦹ᩍဍ౩ᯕᖹᮥᝅ
⦹ᩡ݅.
ԕქᜅ᪡ᯝၹ₉పᮡ࠺ᯝ⦽ࠥಽ᳑Õ, Ʊ☖᳑Õ, ᝁ⪙᳑Õᨱ ᕽᵝ⧪⦹ʑভྙᨱʑᅙᱢᮝಽᮁᔍ⦽☖⧪eᮥӹ┡ԕíࡽ݅.
ə్ӹԕქᜅ᪡ᯝၹ₉ప᮹☖⧪eǍᖒᗭ۵݅ᗭ₉ᯕa
ᯩ۵ߑə ᵲ aᰆⓑ ₉ᯕෝ ӹ┡ԕ۵äᯕ ქᜅᱶඹᰆᨱᕽ᮹
ᕽእᜅeᯕ݅. ԕქᜅ᮹☖⧪eᨱ۵~᮹⦹₉ෝ᭥⦽
ქᜅᱶඹᰆᨱᕽ᮹ᕽእᜅeᯕ⡍⧉ࡹʑভྙᨱᯝၹ₉పŝ᮹
☖⧪e₉ᯕaၽᔾ⦹íࡽ݅. ᕽᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵ᯝၹ₉ప᮹
☖⧪eŝԕქᜅ᮹☖⧪eᨱᕽᱶඹᰆᕽእᜅeᮥᱽ⦽
☖⧪eᮥᱢᬊ⦹ᩍ⫭ȡᇥᕾᮥ☖⧕ÑᱢĞಽ☖⧪e༉⩶
ᮥ Ǎ⇶⦹ᩡ݅.
2. ʑ᳕ᯕುၰᖁ⧪ᩑǍá☁
2.1 ׆ଲߨՑഠ
ࠥᇡ ݉ᗮඹ ࠥಽෝ ݡᔢᮝಽ ⦽ ☖⧪e᮹ ⇵ᱶᮡ ๅᬑ
ᅖᰂ⦹໑ ࠥಽ᳑Õ, Ʊ☖᳑Õ, ᝁ⪙ᬕᩢ᳑Õ ॒ ݅᧲⦽ ᄡᙹᨱ
ᩢ⨆ᮥၼ۵݅. ݉ᗮඹaಽ᮹☖⧪eᨱⓑᩢ⨆ᮥᵝ۵ᗭॅᮡ
Ʊ₉ಽ᪡šಉࡽᗭॅᯕʑভྙᨱWebster, Wardrop, Hutchinson
॒ Ʊ₉ಽ᮹ ḡℕeᮥ ၙᱢᮝಽ ᇥᕾ⦽ ʑ᳕ ᯕುᯕ ฯ݅.
ə్ӹ݅᧲⦽ᄡᙹॅᯕᅖ⧊ᱢᮝಽᩢ⨆ᮥᵝ۵Ʊ₉ಽᨱᕽ
ၽᔾ⦹۵⩥ᔢᮥၙᱢᮝಽ༉⩶⪵⦹ʑ۵ᔢݚ⯩ᨕಅᬑ໑ᅙ
ᩑǍ᮹ ༊ᱢᯙ Ğಽ☖⧪e᮹ Ğᬑ ᯕ్⦽ Ʊ₉ಽa ᩍ్ } ᩑđࡹᨕᯩʑভྙᨱၙᱢᮝಽᱶ⪶⦽ ⇵ᱶ༉⩶ᮥǍ⇶⦹۵
äᮡÑ᮹ᇩa܆⦽ᝅᱶᯕ݅. ᕽ☖⧪e༉⩶ᮡÑᱢᯙ
ᖅᄡᙹෝ ʑᵡᮝಽ ༉⩶⪵⦹۵ äᯕ ᯝၹᱢᯕ݅. ᬑญӹ᮹
Ğᬑࠥಽᬊప⠙௭ᨱᕽƱ☖ప, Ǎeʙᯕ॒ᮥᄡᙹಽ⦹۵⫭ȡ༉
⩶ᮥᱽᦩ⦹ŁᯩŁ݅ෙӹᨱᕽࠥእƱᱢ݉ᙽ⦽⩶┽᮹༉⩶ᮥ
ᔍᬊ⦹Ł ᯩ݅.
ၙᱢᮝಽ݅᧲⦽ᗭॅᮥ༉ࢱᇥᕾ⦹ᩍ☖⧪eᮥᇥᕾ⦹
۵äᮡ༉⩶Ǎ⇶ᐱᦥܩ༉⩶᮹ᝅᱽᱢᬊᨱࠥᨕಅᬡᯕᯩᮥ
äᮝಽᩩᔢࡽ݅. ੱ⦽թྕฯᮡᄡᙹॅᮥᱢᬊ⧁Ğᬑᝅe
᳑ᔍෝ ᭥⦽ ᜅ▽ Ǎ⇶ᨱࠥ ྙᱽa ၽᔾࡽ݅.
ੱ݅ෙ☖⧪e⇵ᱶʑჶᨱ۵ŝÑ⥥ಽ❭ᯝᱲɝჶ, ⋝อ⦥░
ยŝzᮡĥᩕᇥᕾჶ, ᝁĞᮥᯕᬊ⦽⇵ᱶႊჶ, ࠺ᱢ☖⧪႑ᱶ
Table 1. Survey Result for Routes of Study
St. St.Samsan St.Taehwa St.Chungang
Number of Link 13 11 5
Length of Link (m)
139 ~ 340 mean:246
97 ~ 519 mean:226
187 ~ 469 mean:325 Number of Lane
(oneway) 4 ~ 5 2 2 ~ 3
Cycle Time
(sec) 170 ~ 180 130 ~ 150 170 ~ 180 Number of Bus Stop forward: 10
reverse: 8 4 6
Number of Bus Route 39 25 29
Mean of Bus
50min 56min 43min
༉⩶, ဍ౩ᯕᖹ ॒ ݅᧲⦽ ႊჶᯕ ᯩ݅.
ə్ӹŝÑ⥥ಽ❭ᯝჶᮡŝÑᯱഭෝᯕᬊ⦹ʑভྙᨱᝅe
☖⧪e⇵ᱶᯕᇩa܆⦹Łĥᩕ༉⩶ᮡ}ᄥיᖁᨱᱢ⧊⦽༉
⩶ᮥǍ⇶⧕⦹Łeᯕ᪅௹Ùญ۵݉ᱱᯕᯩ݅. ࠺ᱢ☖⧪႑ᱶ
༉⩶ᯕӹဍ౩ᯕᖹ༉⩶ᮡ⩥ᝅ᮹ݡ⩶Ʊ☖օ✙ᬭⓍᨱᱢᬊ⦹
ᩍ⇵ᱶ⦹۵ߑ⦽ĥෝaḡŁᯩ݅. ᕽᯕ్⦽༉⩶ॅᮡ⩥ᝅᨱ
ᱢᬊ⦹۵ߑ ྙᱽᱱᯕ ᯩ݅.
BISᜅ▽ᨱᕽᝅeᙹḲࡹŁᯩ۵ԕქᜅ᮹ᬕ⧪ߑᯕ░ᨱ ۵ยⓍǍe, Ʊ₉ಽᨱᕽ᮹༉ुƱ☖ᔢ⫊ᯕᰁᰍᱢᮝಽ⡍⧉ࡹᨕ
ᯩ۵ߑᯕ░ᯕ݅. ᕽᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵BISᜅ▽ᨱᕽᙹḲࡹ۵
ქᜅᬕ⧪ߑᯕ░ෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍÑᱢᯙĞಽ☖⧪e⇵ᱶ༉⩶ᮥ
Ǎ⇶⦹Łᯱ ⦹ᩡ݅.
2.2 ւߛ֜Ցഠ
ʡᩢ₍॒(2007֥)ᮡࠥeᖁࠥಽᨱᕽCOSMOS ʑၹᝅ
e☖⧪e⇵ᱶ༉⩶ᩑǍᨱᕽŝ⡍⪵Ʊ☖⪹Ğᨱᕽᙽ⧪eŝ
Ʊ₉ಽᝁ⪙ᱽᨕᨱ᮹⧕ၽᔾࡹ۵ḡℕeᮥaḡŁᱥℕǍeᨱ
ݡ⦽☖⧪eᮥ⇵ᱶ⦹۵༉⩶ᮥ}ၽ⦹ᩡ݅. ḡᱱáḡʑ᮹ᗮࠥ
ෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍยⓍᙽ⧪eᮥ⇵ᱶ⦹ᩡŁݡʑ⧪ʙᯕෝᯕᬊ⦹
ᩍ Ⅹʑݡʑ₉పᮥ ⇵ᱶ⦹۵ ༉⩶ᮥ }ၽ⦽ ⬥ HCM 2000᮹
ḡℕᨱ ᱢᬊ⦹ᩍ ḡℕeᮥ ⇵ᱶ⦹ᩡ݅. ݅᧲⦽ Ʊ☖ᔢ⫊ᮥ
ဍ౩ᯕᖹ⦹ʑ᭥⧕VISSIM ⥥ಽəఉᮥᔍᬊ⦹ᩍ⇵ᱶ༉⩶ŝ
☖⧪e⇵ᱶႊჶᮥ⠪a⦹ᩡ݅. ᯕᩑǍ۵⩥ᝅᱢᬊ᮹┡ݚᖒ
ᩍᇡᨱ ݡ⦽ ᩑǍෝ ⨆⬥ ŝᱽಽ ᱽ⦹Ł ᯩᮝ໑ ᩑǍݡᔢᯕ
ࠦพƱ₉ಽᨱᱽ⦽ࡹᨕᯩ۵⦽ĥෝaḡŁᯩ݅. ᕽᅙᩑǍ᮹
༊ᱢᯙ Ğಽ☖⧪e ⇵ᱶŝ ₉ᯕa ᯩ݅.
↽ʑᵝ॒(2006֥)ᮡTransit GPS Dataෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍยⓍ☖⧪
e⇵ᱶŁญ᷹ᮥ}ၽ⦹ᩡ݅. ᯕᩑǍෝ☖⧕Transit GPS Probeෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍ☖⧪eᮥᔑ⇽⧉ᨱᯩᨕBus Probe۵Taxiᨱ
እ⧕ᔢݡᱢᮝಽ᳑ၡ⦽ ᵝʑݚ☖⧪eᱶᅕෝᔾᖒ⦹ᩡᮝӹ
ยⓍᄥɝᗭ⦽ᝁᙹᵡ᮹₉ᯕᨱࠥᇩǍ⦹ŁBus Probe۵Taxiᨱ
እ⧕⠪Ɂᱢᮝಽԏᮡᝁᙹᵡᮥӹ┡ԙäᮝಽᱽ⦹Łᯩ݅.
ᕽBus Probe᪡Taxi Probe᮹☖⧪eእᮉᮥᵝʑݚᄡᙹಽ
ᔾᖒ⦹ᩍᝅeߑᯕ░᪡ŝÑߑᯕ░ಽᅕᱶ⦹۵⮕ญᜅ❒⦽
Łญ᷹ᮥ}ၽ⦹ᩡ݅. ᯕᩑǍ۵ᕽᬙᮥݡᔢᮝಽ⦽äᮝಽḡႊ᮹
݅ෙࠥॅ᮹ĞᬑTaxi ᅕᱶᮥ᭥⦽ᔹ⥭ᙹ⪶ᅕᨱᨕಅᬡᯕ
ᯩᮥᙹᯩŁยⓍෝʑᅙᇥᕾ݉᭥ಽᱢᬊ⦹Łᯩ۵ᱱᨱᕽ⦽ĥෝ
aḡŁ ᯩ݅.
ၶᝁ⩶॒(2006֥)ᨱᕽ۵BISߑᯕ░ෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍქᜅ᮹ᝅ
e☖⧪eᮥᩩ⊂⦹ᩡ۵ߑᯕᩑǍ۵ᱶඹᰆᮥיऽಽ, ᱶඹᰆe
ᮥยⓍಽօ✙ᬭⓍෝǍᖒ⦹ᩡ݅. ᕽBISߑᯕ░ෝ⪽ᬊ⦽݅
۵⊂໕ᨱᕽ۵ᮁᔍ⦹ḡอօ✙ᬭⓍ⊂໕ᨱᕽ۵ᅙᩑǍᯱaᙹ⧪
⦹Łᯱ⦹۵ᩑǍ᪡ɝᅙᱢᯙ₉ᯕaᯩ݅. ੱ⦽ԕქᜅ᮹☖⧪
eᨱƱ₉ಽ᮹ݡʑeၰᱶඹᰆ᮹ᱶ₉eᯕ༉ࢱ⡍⧉ࡹʑ
ভྙᨱ℉ࢱ᪡እ℉ࢱ᮹Ʊ☖పᨱෙ ✚ᖒᯕᰁᰍᱢᮝಽ
ၹᩢࡹᨕ ᯩ݅۵ ᱱᮥ ᰆᱱᮝಽ ᱽ⦹ᩡ݅.
ᱶᩢᰍ॒(2005֥)ᮡǍeáḡℕĥ᮹☖⧪eᱶᅕෝᯕᬊ⦹
ᩍᝁ⪙ᱽᨕŁญ᷹ᮥ}ၽ⦹۵ᩑǍෝᙹ⧪⦹ᩡ݅. Ǎeáḡℕ ĥಽᇡ░}ᄥ₉ప᮹Ǎe☖⧪eᮥᔑ⇽⦹ᩍݡʑ⧪ᮥ⇵ᱶ⦹
Łᯕෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍᝁ⪙ᱽᨕෝᙹ⧪⦹۵Łญ᷹ᮥᩑǍ⦹ᩡ݅.
ᯕᩑǍ۵Ǎeáḡℕĥෝᯕᬊ⦹ḡอáḡʑaᖅ⊹ࡹᨕᯩ۵
ᰆᗭᨱᕽ᮹᳦ᱱáḡℕĥᯕʑভྙᨱ↽ɝBISᨱᕽᔍᬊࡹŁ
ᯩ۵GPSෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍ1sec݉᭥ಽ᭥⊹ߑᯕ░aᙹḲࡹ۵Ǎeá ḡℕĥᨱ እ⦹໕ ᱶၡࠥa ਉᨕḡ۵ ႊჶᯕ݅.
3. ᯱഭᙹḲၰႊჶ
ᅙᩑǍ۵BISᜅ▽ᬕᩢᮥ☖⧕ᙹḲࡹ۵ԕქᜅ᮹ᝅe
☖⧪eߑᯕ░ෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍࠥᇡaಽ᮹Ğಽ☖⧪eᮥ⇵ᱶ
⦹ʑ ᭥⦽ ᩑǍᯕ݅. ᕽ BISᜅ▽ᯕ Ǎ⇶ࡹᨕ ᬕᩢ ᵲᯙ
ᬙᔑŲᩎ᮹ᵝeᖁࠥಽᯙᔝᔑಽ, ┽⪵ಽ, ᵲᦺಽෝݡᔢᮝಽ
ᩑǍෝ ᙹ⧪⦹ᩡ݅.
ᔝᔑಽ۵13}ยⓍಽǍᖒࡹᨕᯩᮝ໑ᬙᔑŲᩎ᮹ᝁࠥᝍᮥ
☖ŝ⦹۵ࠥಽᯕ໑┽⪵ಽ۵11}ยⓍಽǍᖒࡹᨕᯩᮝ໑Ǎࠥᝍ
ᮥ ☖ŝ⦹ʑ ভྙᨱ Ʊ☖ᩍÕᯕ ᔝᔑಽ᪡۵ ݅ᗭ ₉ᯕa ᯩ݅.
əญŁ ᵲᦺಽ۵ 5}᮹ ยⓍಽ Ǎᖒࡹᨕ ᯩ݅.
⩥ᰆ᳑ᔍෝ☖⧕₉ಽᙹ, ยⓍʙᯕ॒ࠥಽʑ⦹Ǎ᳑᪡ᝁ⪙ᬕᩢ
॒ᮥ᳑ᔍ⦹ᩡᮝ໑3}aಽෝᬕ⧪⦹Łᯩ۵༉ुԕქᜅ᮹
ᬕ⧪Ğಽ, ႑₉e ॒ᮥ ᱥᙹ ᳑ᔍ⦹ᩡ݅.
ࠥಽ᳑Õ, ᝁ⪙ᬕᩢ᳑Õ॒ᮡ⩥ᰆ᳑ᔍෝ☖⧕᳑ᔍ⦹ᩍᩑǍෝ
ᙹ⧪⧁ᙹᯩᮝӹaಽෝ☖⧪⦹۵₉పॅ᮹☖⧪eᮡ⩥ᰆ᳑ᔍ
ෝ☖⧕ᱥᙹ᳑ᔍ⦹ʑᨱ⩥ᝅᱢᯙᨕಅᬡᮥaḡŁᯩ݅. əญŁ
݅᧲⦽Ʊ☖᳑Õ᮹ᄡ⪵ෝ⩥ᰆ᳑ᔍෝ☖⧕ᇥᕾ⦹۵äᮡ⩥ᝅᱢ ᮝಽᇩa܆⦹ʑভྙᨱƱ☖᳑Õᮡ݅᧲⦽ӹญ᪅ෝᱢᬊ⦹ᩍ
ဍ౩ᯕᖹ ᇥᕾᮥ ᝅ⦹ᩡ݅.
ᅙᩑǍᨱᔍᬊࡽဍ౩ᯕᖹ⥥ಽəఉᮡVISSIM 5.20ᯕ໑
⩥ᰍᮁᮥእ⦽ᩍ్ӹᨱᕽƱ☖ඹᇥᕾ⥥ಽəఉᮝಽ⪽ᬊ
ࡹŁᯩ۵⥥ಽəఉᮝಽ݅᧲⦽ࠥಽ᳑Õ, ᝁ⪙᳑Õ, Ʊ☖᳑Õᮥ
ၹᩢ⦽ᇥᕾᯕa܆⦹ᩍƱ☖Ŗ⦺, Ʊ☖ĥ⫮⊂໕ᨱᕽᮁ⬉ᖒᯕ
á᷾ࡽ ⥥ಽəఉᯕ݅.
ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵ᇥᕾ᮹⩥ᝅᖒᮥ∊ᇥ⯩⪶ᅕ⦹ʑ᭥⧕⩥᳕⦹۵
ࠥಽ᮹ʑ⦹Ǎ᳑, ᝁ⪙ᬕᩢ⩥⫊ᮥ⩥ᰆ᳑ᔍෝ☖⧕ᙹḲ⦹ᩍဍ ౩ᯕᖹ༉⩶ᨱᱢᬊ⦹ᩡᮝ໑ ԕქᜅ᮹ᬕ⧪⩥⫊ࠥ⩥ᰍᬕᩢ
ᵲᯙ ߑᯕ░ෝ əݡಽ ᱢᬊ⦹ᩡ݅.
⩥ᰆ᳑ᔍđŝෝၹᩢ⦽ဍ౩ᯕᖹᇥᕾđŝෝBISᜅ▽ᨱᕽ
ᙹḲࡽᝅᱽԕქᜅ᮹ᬕ⧪ߑᯕ░᪡እƱ·ᇥᕾ⦹ᩍဍ౩ᯕᖹ
༉⩶ᮥ⩥ᝅŝᮁᔍ⦹í࠺ʑ⪵⍽ဍ౩ᯕᖹ༉⩶᮹ᝁᖒŝ
⩥ᝅᖒᮥ ⪶ᅕ⦹ʑ ᭥⧕ יಆ⦹ᩡ݅.
Ǎ⇶ࡽ༉⩶ᨱ⡍⪵ࠥ(v/c)ෝ0.4ⴇ1.0ʭḡ0.1ᦊᄡ⪵⍽Ʊ☖
ప᮹ᄡ⪵ᨱෙԕქᜅ᪡ᯝၹ₉ప᮹☖⧪eߑᯕ░ෝᇥᕾ
⦹ᩡ݅.
4. Ğಽ☖⧪e⇵ᱶ༉⩶Ǎ⇶
4.1 ധෘਏԩনंজ
ᅙᩑǍ۵Ğಽ☖⧪eᨱš⦽ᩑǍಽ࠺ᯝ⦽ࠥಽ᳑Õ, ᝁ⪙ᬕ
ᩢ᳑Õ, Ʊ☖᳑Õᨱᕽ☖⧪⦹۵ԕქᜅ᮹ᬕ⧪ߑᯕ░ෝᯕᬊ⦹
ᩍᯝၹ₉ప᮹☖⧪eᮥ⇵ᱶ⦹ʑ᭥⦽ᩑǍᯕ݅. zᮡaಽᨱ ᕽࠥႊ⨆ᄥಽbb᳑Õᯕݍḩᙹᯩ݅. ᕽᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵
baಽᄥ, ႊ⨆ᄥಽǍᇥ⦹ᩍⅾ6}᮹ĞಽෝݡᔢᮝಽᩑǍෝ
ᙹ⧪⦹ᩡ݅.
ᔝᔑಽ᮹ĞᬑԉᇡĞₑᕽ⳧ᔝᔑᔍÑญǍeᮥᱶႊ⨆, ᔝᔑᔍ Ñญ⳧ԉᇡĞₑᕽǍeᮥၹႊ⨆, ┽⪵ಽ۵ᝁᖒ႑š⳧ಽ᧥ᩩ
ᰆǍeᮥᱶႊ⨆, ಽ᧥ᩩᰆ⳧ᝁᖒ႑šǍeᮥၹႊ⨆, ᵲᦺಽ۵
ԉᇡƱ⫭⳧ᯕḥᦥ❭✙Ǎeᮥᱶႊ⨆, ᯕḥᦥ❭✙⳧ԉᇡƱ⫭Ǎ eᮥ ၹႊ⨆ᮝಽ ⅾ 6}᮹ Ğಽಽ Ǎᇥ⦹ᩡ݅.
BISᜅ▽ᨱᕽᝅeᙹḲࡹŁᯩ۵ԕქᜅ᮹☖⧪eᮥ
ᯕᬊ⦹ᩍĞಽ☖⧪eᮥ⇵ᱶ⦹ʑ᭥⧕ᕽԕქᜅ᪡ᯝၹ₉ప᮹
☖⧪e✚ᖒᮥᇥᕾ⧁⦥aᯩ݅. ԕქᜅ᪡ᯝၹ₉పᮡ༉ࢱ
࠺ᯝ⦹íᵝᨕḥࠥಽ᳑Õ, ᝁ⪙ᬕᩢ᳑Õ, Ʊ☖᳑Õᨱᕽ☖⧪⦹ʑ
ভྙᨱၙᱢᮝಽၽᔾ⦹۵ ݅᧲⦽᳑Õॅᮡԕქᜅ᮹☖⧪
✚ᖒᨱᰁᰍᱢᮝಽၹᩢࡽäᮝಽᅝᙹᯩ݅. ᯕ۵ၶᝁ⩶2
(2006֥)᮹ ʑ᳕ ᩑǍᨱᕽࠥ ᱽࡽ ၵ ᯩ݅.
ə్ӹ ԕქᜅ᮹ ☖⧪e Ǎᖒᨱᕽ ᯝၹ₉ప᮹ ☖⧪e
Ǎᖒŝᇥ⯩₉ᯕaၽᔾ⦹۵ᗭaᯩ۵ߑၵಽ~᮹⦹₉
ෝ ᭥⦽ ᱶඹᰆᨱᕽ᮹ ᕽእᜅ eŝ aqᗮ✚ᖒ᮹ ₉ᯕᯕ݅.
á
⬠â
á
âÞ
âſ
ß âÞ âſ
ß (1)
« á
«â
«á
«âÞ âſ
«ß (2)
ᩍʑᕽ, : ԕქᜅ☖⧪e,
« : ᯝၹ₉ప☖⧪e
: ยⓍᙽ⧪e
: Ʊ₉ಽḡℕe
¬ : ქᜅᱶඹᰆᕽእᜅe
: ქᜅᱶඹᰆ ᱶḡe ſ
: ԕქᜅ aqᗮe ſ
«: ᯝၹ₉ప aqᗮe
⩥ᰍǍ⇶ࡹᨕᬕᩢᵲᯙᬙᔑŲᩎBISᜅ▽᮹ᝅeᙹḲ ߑᯕ░᮹Ǎᖒᗭෝᇥᕾ⦽đŝbยⓍᄥᙽ⧪e, Ʊ₉ಽᄥ
ᕽእᜅe, ქᜅᱶඹᰆᕽእᜅeᮡᄥࠥಽᙹḲࡹŁᯩ۵äᮝ ಽӹ┡ԍ݅. ə్ӹaqᗮᨱෙᩢ⨆ᮡᄥࠥಽᙹḲࡹŁᯩḡ
ᦫᦹ݅.
a·qᗮ✚ᖒᮡƱ☖పᨱԕქᜅ᪡ᯝၹ₉ప᮹☖⧪e ᨱᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹íࡽ݅. ยⓍǍeᨱᕽ᮹ᵝ⧪eᮡƱ☖పᯕᱢᮥ
ভ۵a·qᗮ✚ᖒᨱ᮹⧕ԕქᜅ᪡ᯝၹ₉ప᮹ᵝ⧪e᮹₉ᯕ aⓍíၽᔾ⦹íࡹ໑Ʊ☖పᯕฯᦥ⪝ᰂ⧁ভ۵᪅⯩ಅɪĊ⦽
a·qᗮᯕᇩa܆⦹ᩍԕქᜅ᪡ᯝၹ₉ప᮹ᵝ⧪e᮹₉ᯕa
ၙᗭ⧕ḥ݅. ə్ӹƱ₉ಽᨱᕽ᮹ḡℕeᮡ݅᧲⦽ᝁ⪙ᬕᩢ᳑
Õᨱᄡ⪵⦹໑ยⓍǍeᨱᕽ᮹݅᧲⦽ ☖⧪ႊ⧕ᯙᮝಽ
ᯙ⦽a·qᗮ᮹ᩢ⨆ᯕၽᔾࢁᙹᯩ݅. ᵝ⧪e, ᙽ⧪e, Ʊ₉ಽ
ḡℕeʭḡŁಅ⦽☖⧪eᮡᯕ్⦽݅᧲⦽ ᗭॅᮥ༉ࢱ
⡍⧉⦹ᩍ ӹ┡ӽ݅.
aqᗮᨱ᮹⦽eᮡBISᜅ▽ᨱᕽᙹḲࡹ۵ᙽ⧪e, Ʊ₉ ಽᕽእᜅe, ქᜅᱶඹᰆᕽእᜅeᨱᯕၙ⡍⧉ࡹᨕᯩᮝ໑BIS ᨱᕽᙹḲࡹŁᯩ۵ᝅeᙹḲߑᯕ░ෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍĞಽ☖⧪e
ᮥ⇵ᱶ⦹Łᯱ⦹۵ᅙᩑǍ᮹༊ᱢᮥŁಅ⧁ভᜅ▽ᨱᕽa·qᗮ
eᯕᄥࠥಽᙹḲࡹŁᯩḡᦫᦥaqᗮeᮥᄡᙹಽ᯦ࠥ⦹ᩍ
༉⩶ᮥǍ⇶⦹۵äᮡ⩥ᝅᱢᮝಽᇩa܆⦹݅. ੱ⦽Ñᱢ☖⧪
e༉⩶ᮥǍ⇶⦹Łᯱ⦹۵ᅙᩑǍ᮹✚ᖒᮥŁಅ⧁ভəⓍʑࠥ
ၙᗭ⦽äᮝಽ❱݉ࡹᨕᇥᕾᨱၹᩢ⦹ḡᦫᦹŁქᜅᱶඹᰆᨱᕽ ᮹ᕽእᜅeอᮥŁಅ⦹ᩡ݅. ԕქᜅ᮹ⅾ☖⧪eᨱᕽᱶඹ ᰆᕽእᜅeᮥᱽ⦽☖⧪eᮥᔑ⇽⦹ᩍᯝၹ₉ప᮹☖⧪
eŝ እƱᇥᕾ⦹Ł ᯕෝ ᖅᄡᙹಽ ⦹ᩍ ༉⩶ᮥ Ǎ⇶⦹ᩡ݅.
Fig. 3. Scatter Diagram of St.Taehwa(forward) Fig. 1. Scatter Diagram of St.Samsan(forward)
݅ᮭᮝಽԕქᜅ᪡ᯝၹ₉ప᮹☖⧪eǍᖒᗭᇥᕾŝᱶ
ᮥÑℱࠥ⇽ࡽbb᮹☖⧪eᨱݡ⦽ᇥ⡍✚ᖒᮥᇥᕾ⦽đŝ
ᱥၹᱢᮝಽԕქᜅ᪡ᯝၹ₉ప᮹ᇥ⡍aᮁᔍ⦽⩶┽ෝӹ┡ԕ ۵äᮝಽᇥᕾࡹᨩᮝӹ ⠪Ɂ☖⧪e᮹₉ᯕ۵יᖁᄥಽ݅ᗭ
₉ᯕaၽᔾ⦹ᩡ݅. ᔝᔑಽ᮹Ğᬑ⠪Ɂ☖⧪e᮹₉ᯕaaᰆ
ⓑäᮝಽӹ┡ԍᮝ໑ᵲᦺಽ᮹Ğᬑᔢݡᱢᮝಽ⠪Ɂ☖⧪e᮹
₉ᯕa᯲ᮡäᮝಽᇥᕾࡹᨩ݅. ᯕ۵aಽǍe᮹ᱥℕʙᯕ(ยⓍ᮹
ᙹ)᮹₉ᯕಽ❱݉ࡽ݅. ੱ⦽bǍeᄥჵ᭥۵ᝁ⪙ᵝʑᨱ
ᩢ⨆ᮥ ၼ۵ äᮝಽ ӹ┡ԍ݅.
4.2 լߦധෘਏԩ୨ࡦ෴֜ౠ
ԕქᜅ᮹☖⧪eŝᯝၹ₉ప᮹☖⧪e᮹Ǎᖒᗭá☁
đŝෝၵ┶ᮝಽԕქᜅ᮹☖⧪eᨱᕽქᜅᱶඹᰆᕽእᜅe
ᮥᱽ⦽☖⧪eŝᯝၹ₉ప᮹☖⧪eᮥእƱᇥᕾ⦹ᩍĞಽ
☖⧪e ༉⩶ᮥ Ǎ⇶⦹ᩡ݅.
baಽᄥಽࠥಽ᳑Õ, ᝁ⪙ᬕᩢ᳑Õᯕ݅Ł࠺ᯝaಽᨱᕽࠥ
ႊ⨆ᄥಽƱ☖ᩍÕᯕᕽಽᔢᯕ⧁ᙹᯩ݅. ੱ⦽༉⩶ᨱᱢᬊ⦹ʑ
᭥⧕baಽᄥ, ႊ⨆ᄥಽ࠺ᯝ⦽᳑Õᨱᕽ☖⧪⦹۵BIS ߑᯕ░ෝ
ᙹḲ⧁ᙹᯩʑভྙᨱ༉⩶ᮥaಽᄥ, ႊ⨆ᄥಽǍᇥ⦹ᩍᇥᕾ⦹ᩡ
ᮝ໑Ğಽ᮹ǍᖒᮡbaಽᄥಽǍeᮥ↽ᗭยⓍ2}ᨱᕽ1}ᦊ
٥ᱢ⦹ᩍยⓍ3}, 4}ⲷĞಽᱥℕಽǍᇥ⦹ᩍߑᯕ░ෝǍ⇶⦹ᩡ
ᮝ໑bǍeᄥᯝၹ₉పŝԕქᜅ☖⧪eߑᯕ░ෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍ
⫭ȡᇥᕾᮥ☖⧕ÑᱢĞಽ☖⧪e༉⩶ᮥǍ⇶⦹ᩡ݅. ᅙ༉⩶
᮹ᖅᄡᙹ۵ԕქᜅ᮹☖⧪eᨱᕽᱶඹᰆᕽእᜅeᮥᱽ
⦽☖⧪eᯕ݅. ᯕ☖⧪eᮡBISᜅ▽ᨱᕽᝅeᮝಽᙹḲ
ࡹŁᯩᨕbaಽᄥ, ႊ⨆ᄥಽߑᯕ░ෝᱢᬊ⧁ᙹᯩʑভྙᨱ
Ğಽᄥ, ႊ⨆ᄥಽᄥࠥ᮹༉⩶Ǎ⇶ᮥ☖⧕༉⩶᮹ᝁᖒᮥ׳ᯝ
ᙹ ᯩᮥ äᮝಽ ʑݡࡽ݅.
༉⩶ᮥǍ⇶⦹ʑ᭥⧕ԕქᜅ᪡ᯝၹ₉ప᮹☖⧪eߑᯕ
░ෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍᔑ⡍ࠥෝ᯲ᖒ⦽đŝbaಽᄥಽᯝᱶ⦽⇵ᖙෝ
ӹ┡ԕ۵äᮝಽᇥᕾࡹᨩ݅. ᔑ⡍ࠥၰ⇵ᱶ༉⩶ᮥFig. 1
~ Fig. 6ᨱ ӹ┡ԕᨩ݅.
Table 2. Route Travel Time Estimation Model
St. Model
Samsan (forward)
« á Ïí×ÑÏÞà¬ß×íÕÐÔ
«Ïá
0.978 significant level : 0.303 Samsan
(reverse)
« á ÎíÒÕÎÞà¬ß×íÕÕ×
«Ïá
0.958 significant level : 0.130 Taehwa
(forward)
« á ×íÖÎ×Þà¬ß×íÖÕÏ
«Ïá
0.986 significant level : 0.168 Taehwa
(reverse)
« á ×íÖÎÖÞ à ¬ß
×íÖÔΫÏá
0.955 significant level : 0.333 Chungang
(forward)
« á ×íÎ×ÒÞà¬ßÎíÐÑÒ
«Ïá
0.959 significant level : 0.612 Chungang
(reverse)
« á ÎíÐÒÏÞà¬ß×íÖ×Ð
«Ïá
0.955 significant level : 0.441
Fig. 7. Errors of Simulation and Model Fig. 5. Scatter Diagram of St.Chungang(forward)
Fig. 6. Scatter Diagram of St.Chungang(reverse)
