** ǎၝݡ⦺Ʊ Õᖅᜅ▽Ŗ⦺ᇡ ᕾᔍŝᱶ, Ŗ⦺ᔍ ([email protected]) Received March 25, 2013/ revised May 1, 2013/ accepted July 3, 2013
Copyright ⵑ 2013 by the Korean Society of Civil Engineers
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0)
ǣǣȀȀǤǤȀͳͲǤͳʹͷʹȀ ǤʹͲͳ͵Ǥ͵͵ǤǤʹʹͶͷ Ǥ ǤǤ
ᙗᦗᇓ#Ⳟ⮫ⴖ#Ꮾ㲂≾㰒Ἲ#ኞᷢ㬚#ቻ㭣⛯#⍂⛛ኺ#Delphi Ꮾ≓ⴂ#ⴲⱧ㬚#
ᆾℂ#㎦⬻⛯#⽾⟖#ᇚ⇚
ઑ୨জ ȵଵฅ
Yang, Jeong-Seok*, Kim, Il-Hwan**
Development of Drought Vulnerability Index Using Delphi Method Considering Climate Change and Trend Analysis in Nakdong River Basin
ABSTRACT
A vulnerability index was developed for drought by using trend analysis and Delphi method. Twelve indicators were selected based on three groups, i.e., hydrological, meteorological, and humanistic groups. Data were collected from Nakdong river watershed. Three trend tests, i.e., Mann-Kendall, Hotelling-Pabst, and Sen’s trend tests, were performed for standardizing the indicators and Delphi method was used to estimate the weights for individual indicators. The drought vulnerability index was calculated for seven regions in the Nakdong watershed and Hapcheon turned out to be the most vulnerable region among the study regions. The drought vulnerability index developed in this study can be applied to other regions in Korea for establishing national water resources management plan.
Key words : Climate change, Drought, Trend test, Delphi method, Vulnerability index
Ⅹಾ
ʑ⬥ᄡ⪵ಽᯙ⦽ᯕᔢʑ⬥⩥ᔢᵲaྥᨱݡ⦽≉᧞ᖒḡᙹෝᯱഭ᮹Ğ⨆ᖒᇥᕾŝDelphi ʑჶᮥᯕᬊ⦹ᩍ}ၽ⦹ᩡ݅. Ӻ࠺vᮁᩎᯱഭ
ෝᯕᬊ⦹ᩍᙹྙ⦺ᱢ, vᬑᔍᔢᱢ, ᯙྙ⦺ᱢᯱഭෝၵ┶ᮝಽⅾ12}᮹ḡ⢽ෝᖁᱶ⦹ᩡ݅. ᖁᱶࡽḡ⢽ෝMann-Kendall trend test, Hotelling-Pabst trend test, Sen’s trend test ॒3aḡĞ⨆ᖒáᱶᮥ☖⧕⢽ᵡ⪵⦹Ł, ߙ❭ᯕʑჶᮥ☖⧕ǎԕ᮹ᙹᯱᬱᱥྙaॅ᮹᮹čᮥ
ၹᩢ⦹ᩍbḡ⢽ᨱaᵲ⊹ෝᇡᩍ⦹ᩡ݅. ↽᳦ᱢᮝಽᔑ⇽ࡽaྥᨱݡ⦽≉᧞ᖒḡᙹᨱᕽӺ࠺vᮁᩎᵲᨱᕽ⧊ᵝᄡḡᩎᯕaྥᨱaᰆ
≉᧞⦹݅۵đŝaӹ᪵݅. ᯕ≉᧞ᖒḡᙹ}ၽᮥ☖⧕ᬑญӹᱥḡᩎᨱᱢᬊ⦹íࡹ໕⨆⬥ᙹᯱᬱᱶ₦ᙹพᨱᯩᨕᕽฯᮡࠥᬡᯕࢁäᯕ
ᔍഭࡽ݅.
áᔪᨕ ʑ⬥ᄡ⪵, aྥ, Ğ⨆ᖒáᱶ, ߙ❭ᯕʑჶ, ≉᧞ᖒḡᙹ
1. ᕽು
ᙹᯱᬱᱶ₦ᮥᙹพ⦹۵ߑᯩᨕᕽᮁᩎ᮹ᙹప, ᙹḩ, vᙹప॒ŝzᮡᯝ₉ᱢᯙḡ⢽อᮝಽ⠪a⦹ᩍᮁᩎšญෝ⦹ʑᨱ۵ฯᮡ
ᨕಅᬡᯕ ෙ݅. ᮁᩎ ᜅ▽ᮥ Ǎᖒ⦹۵ ᗭॅᮥ ᳦⧊ᱢᮝಽ ⠪a⧁ ᙹ ᯩ۵ ☖⧊ḡᙹ᪡ ݅᧲⦽ ḡ⢽ॅᯕ ⦥⦹݅(Kang et al.,
սėॡ
Table 1. Study Area and Gauge Station
No. Groundwater Gauge Station River Level Gauge Station Rainfall Gauge Station Administrative Area
1 Sangju-Seomun Sabeol Sabeol Sangju
2 Daegu-Bisan Hwawon Sungju Daegu
3 Daegu-Hyunpung Goryeonggyo Goryeonggyo Daegu
4 Hapcheon-Jeogjung Jukgo Jukgo Changnyung, Hapcheon
2008). ᮁᩎ᮹ ᯱᩑᰍ⧕ ॒ᨱ ݡ᮲⦹۵ ܆ಆᮥ ⠪a⦹۵ äᮡ
≉᧞ᖒᯕ۵ ัಽ ᱶ᮹ࡹ۵ߑ, ≉᧞ᖒᯕ ᯝၹᱢᮝಽ ᰍ⧕ಽ
ᯙ⧕ၽᔾ⧁ḡ༉۵ᰁᰍᱢ⦝⧕పᮥ᮹ၙ⦽݅. IPCC(2007)ᨱ ᕽ۵≉᧞ᖒᮥʑ⬥ᄡ⪵ᩩ⊂ӹญ᪅ᨱෙၝqࠥ, ᱢ᮲܆ಆ
॒ᨱ ݡ⦽ ⧉ᙹšĥෝ ☖⧕ ᱶ᮹⦹ᩡ݅. ⩥ᰍ ǎᱽᱢᮝಽ ձญ
ᔍᬊࡹŁᯩ۵ᙹᯱᬱᇥ᮹≉᧞ᖒḡᙹಽ۵WPI (Water Poverty Index), SWSI (Social Water Stress Index) ॒ᯕᯩ݅(Sullivan, 2002). ǎԕᨱᕽ۵ ᮁᩎ᮹ ᱶ₦ ᙹพ ၰ đᱶᮥ ⦹ʑ ᭥⧕ Yu and Kim (2008)ᨱ᮹⧕Ğʑࠥḡᩎ᮹ʑ⬥ᄡ⪵ᨱݡ⦽ᔢݡᱢ
≉᧞ᖒᮥ⠪a⦹ᩡ݅. Son et al.(2011)ᮡDPSIR }ֱᮥᯕᬊ⦽
ʑ⬥ᄡ⪵ෝŁಅ⦽⪮ᙹ≉᧞ᖒḡᙹෝᇢ⦽vᮁᩎᨱᱢᬊ⦹ᩡ݅.
ʑ⬥ᄡ⪵۵ə᭥⨹ᖒᯕԁಽᝍb⧕ḡŁᯩ۵aᬕߑIPCC ᱽ4₉ᅕŁᕽᨱᕽ۵⪵ᕾᩑഭ᮹ᔍᬊపᯕ⩥ᰍ⇵ᖙෝᮁḡ⦽
₥᷾a⦽݅໕, 21ᖙʑัḡǍ᮹⠪Ɂʑ᪉ᮡ᧞6ⳃᔢ⦹Ł,
⧕ᙹ໕ᮡ 59cm ᔢ⧁ äᯕŁ ⦹ᩡ݅. ʑ⬥⦺ᯱॅᨱ ᮹⦹໕
ᩩ⊂ࡽḡǍʑ᪉᮹᷾aၰᙹྙᙽ⪹᮹ɚ⦽⩥ᔢ᮹ၽᔾኩࠥa
׳ᦥḡŁvࠥav⧕ḩäᯕᅕᦹ݅(Hisdal et al., 2001).
ᯕᵲaྥᮡ٥ᱢࡽʑ⬥⩥ᔢᮝಽᇡ░ၽᔾ⦹۵ɚ⦽ʑ⬥ᰍ⧕
ᵲ⦹ӹŁᱶ᮹⦹ᩡ݅(Oliver, 2005). ↽ɝ50֥eᬑญӹ᮹
vᙹపᇥᕾđŝྕvᬑᯝᙹa᷾a⦹໑80mm ᯕᔢvᬑᯝᙹੱ⦽
᷾a⦹۵Ğ⨆ᮥᅕᯕŁᯩ݅(National Institute of Meteorological Research, 2004). ʑ⬥ᄡ⪵᮹ᩢ⨆ᮝಽvᬑၽᔾᯝᙹ᮹qᗭ, ᩑv ᙹప᮹ ᷾a, vᬑvࠥ ᷾a⩥ᔢᯕ ӹ┡ԉᮥ ᩩᔢ⧁ ᙹ ᯩᮝ໑
bb⪮ᙹ᪡aྥ᮹ၽᔾa܆ᖒᮥ᷾a┉݅Ł❱݉ࡽ݅(Bae et al., 2008).
ᅙᩑǍ۵Yang et al.(2012)ᯕၽ⢽⦽“Ğ⨆ᖒᇥᕾᮥ☖⦽
aྥ≉᧞ᖒḡᙹ᮹}ၽ”᮹⬥ᗮᩑǍಽʑ᳕᮹ᩑǍᨱᕽ۵aྥᨱ
ᩢ⨆ᮥᵝ۵10}᮹ḡ⢽ෝᖁᱶ⦹Łbḡ⢽᮹ᩑᯱഭෝᙹḲ⦹ᩍ
ᯕෝᖙaḡĞ⨆ᖒáᱶᮥ☖⧕≉᧞ᖒḡᙹෝᔑᱶ⦹ᩡ݅. ᯕ۵
bb᮹ḡ⢽ᨱݡ⧕ᕽᯱഭ᮹Ğ⨆ᖒอᮥ☖⧕bḡ⢽aaྥᨱ
ᩢ⨆ಆᮥእƱ⦹ḡᦫŁᯱഭᨱݡ⧕ᕽᇥᕾᮥ⦹ᩍ≉᧞ᖒḡᙹ᮹
~šᖒᯕਉᨕḡ۵đŝŁ⧁ᙹᯩ݅. ᯕᨱ~šᖒᮥ⪶ᅕ⦹Ł
ᝁࠥෝ׳ᯕʑ᭥⦽ႊჶᮝಽߙ❭ᯕႊჶᮥᱢᬊ⦹ᩡ݅. Ӻ࠺v
ᮁᩎᮥݡᔢᮝಽ22}ḡ⢽ᨱݡ⦽ᯱഭෝᙹḲ⦹Łߙ❭ᯕႊჶ᮹
ᖅྙᵲ}ႊ⩶ḩྙᮥ☖⧕ḡ⢽ෝᖁᱶ⦹ᩡ݅. ʑ᳕᮹ᩑǍᨱᕽ
}ၽࡽᖙaḡᙹྙ, vᬑᔍᔢ, ᯙྙᇥᨱݡ⦽}ֱᮥ᯦ࠥ⦹Ł
aᵲ⊹ෝᇥᄥḡ⢽ᄥಽbbᔑᱶ⦹ᩡ݅. ᯕෝᖁᱶࡽḡ⢽ᨱ
ᱢᬊ⦹ᩍ Ӻ࠺v ᮁᩎ᮹ ↽᳦ᱢᯙ aྥᨱ ݡ⦽ ≉᧞ᖒ ḡᙹෝ
ᔑᱶ⦹ᩡ݅. aྥᨱݡ⧕ᕽĞ⨆ᖒáᱶᮥ☖⧕ʑ⬥ᄡ⪵, ࠥ⪵, ᅖḡᙹᵡ᮹᷾a॒ᨱݡ⧕ᕽŁಅ⦹ᩡŁ, ᱥྙaॅ᮹ᖅྙᮥ☖⧕
aᵲ⊹ෝᱢᬊ⦹ᩍᅕ݅~šᱢᯕŁᝁᖒᯩ۵ḡᙹෝ}ၽ⦹ᩡ
݅Ł ❱݉ࡽ݅.
2. ᩑǍႊჶ
2.1 ඝট୨
ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵3aḡ⊂໕ᮝಽӹ٥ᨕḡ⢽ॅᮥᇥඹ⦹ᩡ݅.
ⅾ22}᮹ḡ⢽ॅᮥᙹྙ⦺ᱢ, vᬑᔍᔢᱢ, ᯙྙ⦺ᱢḡ⢽ಽӹ٥ ᨩ݅. ᯕ۵≉᧞ᖒḡᙹෝᔑᱶ⦹۵ߑၝqࠥ᪡ᱢ᮲܆ಆᮥŁಅ⧕
⦹۵ߑ ᙹྙ⦺ᱢ ᇥ᪡ vᬑ ᔍᔢᱢ ᇥ۵ ᯕ ᵲ aྥᨱ
ݡ⦽ၝqࠥಽᇥඹ⧁ᙹᯩŁ, ᯙྙ⦺ᱢᇥ۵ᱢ᮲܆ಆᨱ⧕ݚ⦽
݅. ၝqࠥᨱ ⧕ݚ⦹۵ ᙹྙ⦺ᱢ ᇥ۵ ᙹྙᇥ ᵲ ḡ⢽ᙹ᪡
ḡ⦹ᙹᨱݡ⦽ᇥಽǍᖒࡹᨕᯩŁ, vᬑᔍᔢᱢᇥ۵aྥᨱ
ᩢ⨆ᮥᵝ۵vᬑ᮹ᮁ⩶ᨱෙḡ⢽a⡍⧉ࡹᨕᯩ۵ᇥᯕ݅.
3aḡ ᇥ ၰ bbᨱ ݡ⦽ ḡ⢽۵ Table 1ᨱ ᱶญࡹᨕᯩ݅.
2.1.1 ࢂୡඝ 2.1.1.1
ḡ⦹ᙹ᭥۵ ᮁᩎ᮹ ᙹᯱᬱ ᇡ᳕పᮥ a܁⧁ ᙹ ᯩ۵ ࠥa
ࢁᙹᯩŁḡ⦹ᙹ᭥᮹⦹vᮡ⦹᮹Õ⪵, ḡၹ⋉⦹, ⧕ᦩḡႊ᮹
ᩝᙹ⋉᯦॒ᩍ్ྙᱽॅᮥa⦹íࡽ݅. ᬑญӹ᮹Ğᬑḡ⦹ᙹ
ᔍᬊపᯕฯᮡᇡᇥᮥ₉ḡ⦹Łᯩᮝ໑, ⅾvᬑపᮡ᷾a⦹ӹvᬑ vࠥa ׳ᦥḡ۵ ⇵ᖙᨱ ᯩᨕ ḡ⦹ᙹ᭥۵ ⦹v⦹۵ ⇵ᖙᯕ݅.
2.1.1.2 వ
⦹ᙹ᭥۵ᵝࡽᬊᙹᬱᮝಽaྥᨱḢᱲᱢᯙᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹۵
ḡ⢽ᵲ⦹ӹᯕ݅. ⦹ᙹ᭥a⦹v⧁Ğᬑᵝᄡḡᩎ᮹ᔾ⪽, Ŗᨦ,
ᨦ॒ᨱᯕᬊa܆⦽ᙹᯱᬱᯕəอⓝᱡ⦹⦽݅Łᅝᙹᯩ݅.
2.1.2 Գॷঃୡඝ 2.1.2.1 Գ߆
1֥eⅾvᙹపᮝಽᩑvᙹప᮹᷾aᮉᮡ׳ᦥḡŁ۵ᯩᮝӹ
ᔍᬊ⧁ᯙǍa᷾a⦹Łྕvᬑᯝᙹa᷾a⦹ᩍvᬑaḲᵲࡹᨕ
ᙹᯱᬱᮥ ⪶ᅕ⦹۵ߑ ฯᮡ ᨕಅᬡᯕ ᯩ݅.
2.1.2.2 ࡿԳଵ
ʑᔢℎ᮹vᬑš⊂ᗭᯝᄥš⊂ᯱഭෝᙹḲ⦹ᩍᮁ⬉vᬑపᯕ
0ᯙĞᬑෝ⡍⧉⦹ᩍྕvᬑᯝᙹෝᔑᱶ⦹ᩡ݅. ྕvᬑᯝᙹaฯᦥ ḩᙹಾ aྥᮥ ᮁၽ⧁ ᙹ ᯩ۵ ⪶ශᯕ ۹ᨕӽ݅Ł ❱݉ࡽ݅.
2.1.2.3 80mm/day ଲঃԳଵ
ᯝvᬑపᵲ80mm ᯕᔢᯝĞᬑ᮹vᬑᯝᙹෝᔑᱶ⦹ᩍvᬑa
Ḳᵲࡹ۵äᨱݡ⦽ḡ⢽ಽ❱݉⦹ᩡ݅. vᬑaḲᵲࡹ໕ᕽྕvᬑ ᯝᙹa ᷾a⦽݅໕ aྥᨱ ⓑ ᩢ⨆ᮥ ᵡ݅Ł ❱݉ࡽ݅.
2.1.2.4 Գඇఙଘ
ᩑvᙹప᮹ᬵᄥ↽ݡၽᔾእᮉŝ↽ᗭၽᔾእᮉ᮹₉ᯕෝ
ӹ┡ԕ۵äᮝಽ, ᬵᄥ↽ݡvᙹ⠙₉ෝᩑvᙹపᮝಽӹ٩sᮥ
Ǎ⦽݅. vᙹప᮹ᬵᄥᄡ࠺ᖒ᮹ᱶࠥෝӹ┡ԝᙹᯩ۵ḡ⢽ಽ
ᬵᄥ↽ݡvᙹ⠙₉۵ᬵᄥ↽ݡvᙹపŝ↽ᗭvᙹప᮹₉ᯕෝ
☖⧕ vᙹప᮹ᱩݡ sᮥ ☖⧕ᙹᯱᬱ šญ᮹ ӽᯕࠥෝ⇵ᱶ⧁
ᙹ ᯩ݅.
2.1.2.5 Գுணࠔ
1֥eᯝvᬑపᯕ80mmᯕᔢᯝĞᬑ᮹vᬑపᮥ⧊ᔑ⦹ᩍ, ᩑ vᙹపᮝಽӹ٩sᮥ᮹ၙ⦽݅. vᬑపᮥ☖⧕vᬑvࠥෝ❱݉⧁
ᙹ ᯩ۵ ʑᵡᯕ ࡽ݅Ł ❱݉ࡽ݅. aྥᯕ ᝍ⦽ ᩑࠥ᮹ Ğᬑ ᯝ
vᬑపᯕ80mm ᯕᔢᯙvᬑపᯕᱥྕ⧁ᙹᯩḡอ, ⠪Ɂᱢᮝಽ
ᩑvᬑప ᵲ 16~20%᮹ እᮉᮥ ₉ḡ⦽݅.
2.1.3 ࢂୡඝ 2.1.3.1 1ۥԧୀ
ḡᩎᄥᩑvᙹపᮥḡᩎᯙǍಽӹ٩äᮝಽ, ᙹᬊݡእaᬊᙹప
ᮡaᰆḢᱲᱢᮝಽ❱݉⧁ᙹᯩᮝӹ, ᬊᙹŖɪ⩥⫊ᮥŁಅ⦹ḡ
༜⦽݅໕ ⩥ᝅᱢᯙ ྜྷᙹḡ ᔢ⫊ŝ Ñญa ᯩᮥ ᙹ ᯩ݅.
2.1.3.2 ୀऀ߆
ḡᩎᄥᩑvᙹపᮥḡᩎ໕ᱢᮥŒ⦽sᮝಽᝅḩᱢᯙḡᩎ᮹
ᙹᯱᬱᨱݡ⦽sᯕŁᅝᙹᯩ݅. ᙹᯱᬱᇡ᳕పᮡ1ᯙݚaᬊ
ᙹᯱᬱŝ ᵲᅖࡹ۵ ᖒ⨆ᮥ ᅝ ᙹ ᯩḡอ ᯕ۵ b ḡᩎᨱ ݡ⦽
ᱩݡᱢᯙ ᙹᯱᬱᨱ ݡ⧕ᕽอ Łಅෝ ⦹Ł ᯩ۵ sᯕ݅.
2.1.3.3 લଲ߆
ḡᩎᄥಽᔾ⪽ᬊᙹ, Ŗᨦᬊᙹ, ᨦᬊᙹᨱᯕᬊࡹ۵ᙹᯱᬱᨱ
ݡ⦽ sᯕ݅. ḡᩎᄥಽ Ŗɪࡹ۵ ᙹᯱᬱᨱ እ⧕ ᔍᬊࡹ۵ ᧲ᯕ
۹ᨕԁᙹಾ aྥᨱ ݡ⦽ ≉᧞ᖒᮥ ӹ┡ԙ݅Ł ❱݉ࡽ݅.
2.1.3.4 ঃ, ׂܑ࣪ࠔ
ᙹᯱᬱᮥ⪽ᬊ⦹۵ḡᩎ᮹ᅖḡᙹᵡᮥa܁⧁ᙹᯩ۵ࠥಽ
ᅕɪᯕ׳ᮡḡᩎᯝᙹಾaྥᨱݡ⦽ݡእaࡹᨕᯩ݅Ł❱݉⧁
ᙹ ᯩ݅. ᔢ, ⦹ᙹࠥ ☖ĥᩑᅕෝ ☖⧕ ᙹḲ⦹ᩡ݅.
2.1.3.5 ঃ, ܑ૬ׁգఙඝ
ᙹᯱᬱᨱݡ⦽ɩᮥᙹḲ⦹ᩍḡᩎᄥಽእƱ⦽ḡ⢽ಽᙹᯱᬱ
Ŗɪᯕᬱ⪽⦹Ł ญ⧁ ᙹᯩ۵ ᖅᯕ ⪶∊ᯕࡽ ḡᩎᯝᙹಾ
ԏᮡ sᮥ ӹ┡ԙ݅. ᔑᱶ⦹۵ ႊჶᮡ ݅ᮭŝ z݅.
ɩĊ₉ḡ⢽ = 1 - ḡᩎɩ - ↽ᱡɩ
↽Łɩ - ↽ᱡɩ (1)
2.1.3.6 ࢄଲվඌন
ྜྷᯕᬊᨱݡ⦽ᱲɝ᮹Ŗ⠪ᖒᮥӹ┡ԕ۵ḡ⢽ಽ⦥⦽ᯱഭಽ ۵ᔢ, ⦹ᙹࠥᅕɪශ, ḡᩎɩ, ↽Łၰ↽ᱡɩᯕŁಅࡽ݅.
ᔑᱶ⦹۵ ႊჶᮡ ݅ᮭŝ z݅(Dong et al., 2009).
¢ƏƓƇƒƗá ćÐ
¢ƕſƒƃƐ⢬ƃƕƃƐâ¢ƎƐƇƁƃ
Z Î××ÞÜß (2)
¢ƏƓƇƒƗ = ྜྷᯕᬊŖ⠪ᖒ
¢°ſƒƃƐ = ᔢᙹࠥᅕɩශ(%)
¢¬ƃƕƃƐ = ⦹ᙹࠥᅕɩශ(%)
¢wƇƁƃ = ᔢ⦹ᙹࠥ ɩŖ⠪ᖒ
= ãķ âÞÎ àķßĸäZ Î××ÞÜß ķ(↽ᱡɩᙹᵡ) = ↽ᱡɩ↽Łɩ
ĸ(ɩĊ₉ḡ⢽) = 1 - ḡᩎɩ - ↽ᱡɩ
↽Łɩ - ↽ᱡɩ
2.1.3.7 ࢄ୍୨Սୢন
ྜྷ ᰍᱶ Õᱥᖒᮡ ྜྷᯕᬊ እᬊ ᵲ ྜྷ šಉ ᇡݕɩ ⪚ᮡ ྜྷ
s॒ᮝಽ∊ݚ⦹۵እᮉᮥั⦽݅. ⦥⦽ᯱഭ۵ᔢᙹࠥᯱᅙᙹ᯦, ᔢ, ⦹ᙹࠥ ᖙ᯦, ⦹ᙹࠥ ᔍᬊഭ, ᬱᯙᯱ ᇡݕɩ॒ᮥ ⡍⧉⦽݅.
ᔑᱶ⦹۵ ႊჶᮡ ݅ᮭŝ z݅.
ྜྷᰍᱶÕᱥᖒ =
ᔢᙹࠥᯱᅙᙹ᯦+⦹ᙹࠥᔍᬊഭ+ᬱᯙᯱᇡݕɩ
×100(%)
ᔢᙹࠥᖙ᯦+⦹ᙹࠥᖙ᯦ (3)
2.1.3.8 ࢄୀׂࠔ
ḡᩎᨱᕽᔾᔑࡹ۵ᬊᙹಽḡᩎᨱᕽᔍᬊ⦹۵ᬊᙹෝḢᱲŖɪ
⧁ᙹᯩ۵ḡᨱݡ⦽ḡ⢽ಽᬊᙹᯕᬊపŝŲᩎᔢᙹࠥᯕᬊపᯕ
⡍⧉ࡹᨕᯩ݅. ྜྷᯱɪශᯕ׳ᮥᙹಾḡᩎ᮹aྥᮥ⧕ᗭ⦹۵ߑ
܆࠺ᱢᮝಽݡ⧁ᙹᯩ݅. ྜྷᯱɪශᮥᔑᱶ⦹۵ႊჶᮡ݅ᮭŝ
z݅.
ྜྷ ᯱɪශ = ᬊᙹᯕᬊప - Ųᩎᔢᙹࠥ Ŗɪప
ᬊᙹᯕᬊప (4)
2.1.3.9 ౫ଘ
ᬊᙹᯕᬊపᵲ⦹ၰḡ⦹ᙹᨱᕽḢᱲŖɪ⦹۵᧲ᮥӹ┡ԕ໑
≉ᙹᮉᯕ׳ᮥᙹಾᙹᯱᬱ᮹⬉ᮉᱢᯙᯕᬊᮥ⦹ḡ༜⦹۵ḡᩎᮝ ಽᇥඹࡹ໑əḡᩎ᮹ᅖḡᙹᵡᮥa܁⧁ᙹᯩ۵ࠥaࡽ݅Ł
❱݉ࡽ݅.
2.2 णࡦୡլේনՑ୨ଡധඝஜฃ
bbᖁ┾ࡽḡ⢽ॅ᮹Ğᬑbḡ⢽ᄥಽ⠙₉aᝍ⦹ᩍaᵲ⊹ෝ
ᇡᩍ⦹ʑᱥᨱᯕᨱݡ⦽᳑ᱶᯕ⦥⦹݅. ᯕෝ᭥⧕bḡ⢽ᄥಽ
⢽ᵡ⪵ෝ ᝅ⦽݅. ⢽ᵡ⪵᮹ ႊჶᨱ۵ ᙽ᭥ ๅʑʑ, Z-ᜅ⎵ᨕ, ᜅ⍡ᯝ ᰍ᳑ᱶ॒ᯕ ᯩ۵ߑ ᙽ᭥ๅʑʑ᮹ Ğᬑ aᰆ݉ᙽ⦹Ł
e݉⦽ ႊჶᯕ⧁ ᙹ ᯩḡอaᵲ⊹ෝ ᇡᩍ⧁ Ğᬑɚsᮝಽ
⊹ݍᮥᙹᯩᨕᱢ⧊⦹ḡ༜⦹݅. Z-ᜅ⎵ᨕႊჶ᮹Ğᬑ⢽ᵡ⪵
ႊჶᮝಽ aᰆ ᅕ⠙ᱢᮝಽ ᔍᬊࡹŁ ᯩḡอ b ǎaᄥ ḡ⢽ᨱ
ݡ⦽ᯱഭaᱶȽᇥ⡍ෝӹ┡ԙ݅Ł⧩ᮥভᝁࠥa׳ᮡႊჶᯕ ʑᨱᇡᱢ⧊⦹݅Ł❱݉⦹ᩡ݅(Yu and Kim, 2008). ᜅ⍡ᯝᰍ᳑
ᱶႊჶᮡ⢽ᵡ⠙₉ᅕ݅ḡ⢽᮹ჵ᭥ᨱʑၹᮥࢱᨕ༉ुᯱഭa
࠺ᯝ⦽ ჵ᭥ෝ wࠥಾ ⦹۵ äᯕ݅.
ᅙᩑǍᨱᕽ۵ḡᙹᔑᱶᮥ᭥⧕ᕽš⊂ᯱഭ᮹Ğ⨆ᖒᇥᕾᮥ
☖⧕ bḡ⢽ॅᮥ ⢽ᵡ⪵ ┅۵ߑᯱഭ᮹ ʙᯕa ṈŁᯱഭ᮹
⠙₉a⍅እ༉ᙹᱢĞ⨆ᖒáᱶᮥ☖⧕ʑᬙʑ᪡Ğ⨆ᖒᮁྕෝ
☖⧕ ḡᙹෝ ᔑᱶ⦹ᩡ݅. ᩑ ᯱഭ ᇥᕾ t-Test, Spearman’s Rho Test, Hotelling - Pabst Test, Mann - Kendall Test Sen’s Test ॒ᯕ ᯩ݅. ᯕ ᵲ ᅙ ᩑǍᨱᕽ۵ Mann - Kendall Test, Hotelling - Pabst Test, Sen’s Testෝ☖⧕Ğ⨆ᖒᮁྕෝ❱݉⦹Ł
ᖙaḡႊჶ᮹Ğ⨆ᖒáᱶᨱᕽ༉ࢱĞ⨆ᖒᯕӹ┡ӹ໕ᝁᖒᮥ
ӹ┡ԙ݅Ł ❱݉⦹ᩍ ᱩݡᱢᮝಽ 3ᱱᮥ ᔑᱶ⦹Ł b ḡ⢽ᄥಽ
ʑᬙʑෝ ☖⧕ +, -ෝ ❱݉⦹ᩡ݅.
2.2.1 Mann-Kendall Test
Mann-Kendall Test (Mann, 1945)۵ĥᩕᯱഭᨱᕽĞ⨆ᖒ ᮹ᩍᇡอᮥ❱݉⦹ʑ᭥⦽áᱶᮝಽእ༉ᙹᱢᯙ☖ĥʑჶᮥ⪽ᬊ
⦹ᩍᯱഭ᮹݉᳑Ğ⨆ᮥᇥᕾ⦹۵ߑᙹᯱᬱᇥᨱᕽձญᔍᬊࡹ
Łᯩ݅(Lee et al, 2010). ᯱഭ᮹ᙹaƌᯙᯱഭĥᩕƖᨱᕽ݅ᮭŝ
zᮡ Sෝ ݅ᮭŝ zᯕ ☖ĥపᮝಽ ᱶ᮹⧁ ᙹ ᯩ݅.
¬ áƇ á Îƌ àÎ
ā
ƈ á Ƈ âÎā
ƌ ƑƅƌÞƖƈà ƖƇß (5)ᩍʑᨱᕽ nᮡ š⊂s᮹ ᙹᯕ໑Ɩƈ᪡ƖƇ۵ b š⊂ᱱƈ᪡
Ƈᨱᕽ᮹š⊂sᯕ݅. əญŁbš⊂sᮥᝮᮝಽእƱ⦹۵ႊჶᮝ ಽ᷾a(1), qᗭ(-), ᔢ॒(0)᮹sᮥᯕᬊ⧁ᙹᯩᮝ໑, ᨕਅᱱᮥ
ƇÞÎ = Ƈ = ƌßಽ⦹ᩡᮥভš⊂sƖƇ۵N}᮹Ɩƈà ƖƇÞƈ ð Ƈß
₉ᇥ ᝮᮥ อॅŁ ᯕ₉ᇥ᮹ ᇡ⪙ෝ ĥᔑ⦹í ࡹ໕ ☖ĥప S۵
ɝᔍᱢᮝಽ⠪Ɂł á ×ᯕŁᇥᔑňÏ۵݅ᮭŝzᯕ⢽ࡹ۵ᱶȽ ᇥ⡍ෝ ෙ݅.
ňÏá ćÎÕÎ ãƌÞƌàÎßÞÏƌâÒßà
ā
Ƈ á Îƅ ƒƇÞƒƇà ÎßÞσƇâÒßä (6)ᩍʑᕽƅ۵࠺ᱱญᨱ⦥⦽࠺ᱱə൚᮹ᙹᯕ໑,ƒƇ۵Ƈჩṙ
࠺ᱱə൚᮹ᯱഭᙹᯕ݅. ☖ĥప¬aᱶȽᇥ⡍ෝအಽ݅ᮭŝ
zᯕ ⢽ᵡᱶȽᄡప³ෝ ĥᔑ⧁ ᙹ ᯩ݅.
³ á Ē ē Ĕ
ĕ ĕ
ćö¬ à Î ¬ ð×ćňÏ
× ¬ á × ćöćňÏ
¬Î
¬ ï ×
(7)
ᯕ᪡zᯕĥᔑࡽ⢽ᵡᱶȽᄡప³a⢽ᵡᱶȽᇥ⡍᧲⊂áᱶ᮹
95% ᝁࠥ᮹⦽ĥsᯙ³ áX ÎíÖÓ ᔍᯕᨱॅ໕ᵝᨕḥᯱഭĥᩕ
ᮡ Ğ⨆ᮥ aḡḡ ᦫ۵ äᮝಽ ❱ᱶ⦽݅.
2.2.2 Hotelling-Pabst Test
Hotelling-Pabst Test (Conover, 1971)۵ ᯱഭ᮹ ᙹaƌᯙ
ᵝᨕḥᯱഭĥᩕ³ᨱᕽ᪅₉ᙽᮝಽᱶ⦹Ł, ᯱഭĥᩕ²ᨱݡ
⧕ᕽ᯲ᖒ⦽⬥݅ᮭŝzᮡ☖ĥప¬ෝ݅ᮭŝzᯕᱶ᮹⦽݅.
¬ á
ā
Ƈ á Îƌ ã«ÞƖƇß à ƇäÏ (8)ᩍʑᕽ«ÞƖƇß۵ᯱഭĥᩕ±᮹ᙽ᭥݅. ᯕ᪡zᯕᱶ᮹ࡽ☖ĥప
ᮡɝᔍᱢᮝಽ⠪Ɂł᪡ᇥᔑňÏᯕ݅ᮭŝzᯕ⢽ࡹ۵ᱶȽ
ᇥ⡍ෝ ෙ݅.
ł á ćƌÞƌÏÓà Îß
(9)
ňÏáƙ
Ɯƚć
ÓöćƌÞà Îß ƌÞƌÏà Îß ƛ
Ɲƞ (10)
☖ĥప¬aᱶȽᇥ⡍ෝအಽ݅ᮭŝzᯕ⢽ᵡᱶȽᄡప
³ᮥ Ǎ⦽݅.
³ á ć¡ à łň (11)
ᩍʑᕽĥᔑࡽ⢽ᵡᱶȽᄡప³a݅ᮭŝzᮡĞᬑĞ⨆ᖒᮡ
aḡḡ ᦫ۵ äᮝಽ ❱ᱶ⦽݅.
ç³ç = łÎàķîÏ (12)
ᩍʑᕽłÎàķîÏ۵⢽ᵡᱶȽᇥ⡍᮹Î à ſîÏᇥ᭥ᙹᨱ⧕ݚࡹ۵
sᯕ໑, ķ۵ ᮁ᮹ᙹᵡᯕ݅.
2.2.3 Sen’s Test
Sen’s Test (Salmi et al., 2002; Lee et al, 2006)۵ᯕᔢs, đ⊂s ॒ᯕᯩᮥ Ğᬑᨱࠥ Ğ⨆ᖒᮥ❱݉⧁ ᙹ ᯩ۵ႊჶᮝಽ
Sen᮹Ğ⨆ᖒ⇵ᱶᯱ(estimator)ෝǍ⦹ʑ᭥⧕ᕽʑᬙʑ⇵ᱶs (slope estimate)ᮥ ݅ᮭŝ zᮡ ႊჶᮝಽ Ǎ⦽݅.
(13)
ࠥ⇽ࡽªsᮥⓍʑᨱᔩಽӹᩕ⦽⬥ᵲᦺs(median)ᮥ
¬ á ćÏ
(15) ಽ Ǎ⦽݅.
aᖅáᱶᮥ⦹ʑ᭥⧕¬ᨱݡ⦽ᇥᔑsᯕ⦥⦽ߑ, ᯲ᮡᙹ᮹
ᯱഭᨱᱢᬊ┍ᙹᯩ۵Kendall (1975)᮹ᮥᙹᱶ⦹ᩍ݅ᮭŝ
zᮡ ᇥᔑ ⇵ᱶsᮥ Ǎ⦹۵ ᮥ ᔍᬊ⦽݅.
ƔſƐÞ¬ß á ćÎÕÎ ãƌÞƌàÎßÞÏƌâÒßà
ā
Ǝ á ÎƏ ƒƎÞƒƎ àÎßÞσƎâÒßä(16)
ᩍʑᕽƒƎ۵ᕽಽzᮡš⊂sᮥwÑӹqḡࡹḡᦫ۵(non- detect) š⊂s᮹ᙹෝஜ⦹໑,Ə۵ᯕ్⦽ᙹᯕ݅. ᯕॅsᮥᯕᬊ⦹
ᩍ ݅ᮭŝ zᮡ ᝁ Ǎeᮥ Ǎ⧁ ᙹ ᯩ݅.
¦Îá ćÏ
(17)
¦Ïá ćÏ
(18)
³Îàſ۵ᱶȽᇥ⡍᮹ÞÎ àſßÎ××Ü ḡᱱᮝಽ, Ğ⨆ᖒᯕᨧ݅۵
ȡྕaᖅᨱݡ⦹ᩍ¦Îŝ¦Ïᨱ⧕ݚࡹ۵ªsᯕ0ᮥ⡍⧉⦹ḡ
ᦫᮝ໕ ȡྕaᖅᮡ ʑbࡹᨕ Ğ⨆ᖒᯕ ᯩ݅Ł ❱݉⧁ ᙹ ᯩ݅.
2.2.4 ඝඝஜฃ
ᙹྙ⦺ᱢ ḡ⢽۵ እ༉ᙹᱢ Ğ⨆ᖒ áᱶᮥ ☖⧕ ༉ࢱ ⦹v⧁
Ğᬑ3ᱱ, 2}᮹ᇥᕾႊჶᨱᕽ⦹v⧁Ğᬑ2ᱱ, 1}᮹áᱶᨱᕽอ
⦹v⧁Ğᬑ1ᱱ, ᮁ᮹⦹ḡᦫŁ⦹v⧁Ğᬑ0.5ᱱᮥᇡᩍ⧩݅.
vᬑᔍᔢᱢḡ⢽۵ᩑvᙹప᮹Ğᬑᙹྙ⦺ᱢḡ⢽᪡ษ₍aḡಽ
ྕvᬑᯝᙹ, 80mm/day ᯕᔢᩑvᬑప, vᬑ⠙₉ᮉ, vᬑḲᵲශᮡᔢ
ᯙྙ⦺ᱢ ḡ⢽۵ 1ᯙݚ aᬊ ᙹᯱᬱప, ᙹᯱᬱ ᇡ᳕ప, ᔢ,
⦹ᙹࠥᅕɪශ, ྜྷᯕᬊŖ⠪ᖒ, ྜྷᰍᱶÕᱥᖒ, ྜྷᯱɪශ, ≉ᙹᮉ ᮹Ğᬑ3aḡእ༉ᙹᱢĞ⨆ᖒáᱶᨱᕽ༉ࢱ⦹v⧁Ğᬑ3ᱱᮥ,
ᮁ᮹⦹ḡ۵ᦫᮝӹᖁ⩶⫭ȡᇥᕾᨱᕽ⦹v⧁Ğᬑ0.5ᱱᮥᔑᱶ⦹
Table 2. Selected Indicators
Item Group Detailed Indicators
Drought Vulnerability
Hydrology
Annual Average Groundwater Level Annual Minimum Groundwater Level Annual Average River Level Annual Minimum River Level
Precipitation Pattern
Number of Non-Rainy Days Rainfall Concentration Ratio Rainfall Deviation
Humanity
The Amount of Water Available per Capita Water Usage Equity
Financial Soundness for Water Resources Local Water Independence Ratio Water Withdrawal Ratio
Fig. 1. Study Area ᯕᬊప, ᔢ, ⦹ᙹࠥɩĊ₉ḡ⢽᮹Ğᬑᨱ۵ᔢ⧁Ğᬑ3ᱱᨱᕽ
2.3 ܄൞ଲࢺ࣑ଡଲԧண౿ऀ
Delphi ʑჶᮡᱢᱩ⦽ᩩ⊂ႊჶᮥᮥᙹᨧᮥভᱥྙaॅ᮹
Ḣšᮥ࠺ᬱ⦹ᩍၙ௹ෝᩩ⊂⦹۵ႊჶᯕ݅. ᱥྙaॅ᮹ᯖᖒᮥ
☖⦽᮹čƱ⪹ᮥ☖⧕ᯝᱶ⦽ᵝᱽᨱݡ⧕ᕽၹᅖᱢᯙ⦝ऽ႒ᮥ
⦹ᩍᕽಽ᮹᮹čᮥᙹಕ⦹Ł⧊ᯝᱱᮥ۵ʑჶᮝಽᱥྙaॅ᮹
Ḳ݉ᱢᔍŁෝ☖⦽ၙ௹ᩩ⊂ႊჶᯕ݅. ⧕ᙹݕᙹ⪵ᇥ᮹ᱥྙa
ෝᖁᱶ⦹Ł݅݉ĥᩑǍෝḥ⧪⦹۵ߑสݡ⦽eᯕ⦥⦹໑
ɚ݉ᱢ᮹čᮥญ⦹۵ߑᨕಅᬡᯕᯩḡอྙᱽෝԪᱶ⦹Ł~š ᱢᮝಽá☁⧁ᙹᯩ݅۵ᰆᱱᯕᯩ݅(Lee, 2001). ᖅྙᮡₙᩍə൚
ᵲᗭᙹ᮹ɚ݉ᱢ᮹čᨱݡ⦽ᰍ᳑ᱶᮥŁಅ⦹Ł~šᱢᯙđುᮥ
ࠥ⇽⦹ʑ᭥⧕ⅾ3ჩ᮹ᖅྙᮥḥ⧪⦹ᩡᮝ໑b݉ĥᄥ⦝ऽ႒ᮥ
☖⧕᮹čᮥᙹಕ⦹ᩡ݅. 1₉ߙ❭ᯕᖅྙᮡ}ႊ⩶ḩྙᮥ☖⧕
ḡ⢽᮹ ᖁᱶᨱ ݡ⦽ ᮹čᮥ ᙹಕ⦹ᩡŁ, 2₉, 3₉ ᖅྙᮥ ☖⧕
ḡ⢽᮹aᵲ⊹ෝđᱶ⦹ᩡ݅. ⅾ22ᮥݡᔢᮝಽᖅྙᮥᝅ⦹ᩡ
ᮝ໑ ᩍ్ ݡ⦺᮹ ᙹᯱᬱ ᇥ Ʊᙹ 6, ၶᔍ ŝᱶ 3, ᕾᔍ
ᙹഭ5, ᕾᔍŝᱶ2ᯕₙᩍ⦹ᩡ݅. ੱ⦽ᙹᯱᬱᝅྕෝݕݚ⦹
Łᯩ۵ʑᨦ᮹ݡญᯕᔢ3ᯕǍᖒࡹᨩŁ, ᙹᯱᬱšಉŖʑᨦᨱ ᕽ 3ᯕ ᖅྙᨱ ₙᩍ⦹ᩡ݅.
aᵲ⊹ ᔑᱶႊჶᮡ ݅ᮭŝ z݅.
² á
ā
Ƈ á Îƌ ķƇZ ĸƇZ ±Ƈ (19)ķ = ᇥᄥ aᵲ⊹
ĸ = ᯙᯱᄥ aᵲ⊹
± = ⢽ᵡ⪵⦽ ḡᙹ
² = ↽᳦ aྥ ≉᧞ᖒ ḡᙹ
⢽ᵡ⪵⦽ḡ⢽ᨱDelphi ʑჶᮥ☖⧕đᱶࡽaᵲ⊹ෝᇡᩍ⦽݅.
3. ᩑǍḡᩎ
ᩑǍ ḡᩎᮡ Ӻ࠺v ᮁᩎ ᵲ vᬑš⊂ᗭ, ⦹ ၰ ḡ⦹ᙹ᭥
š⊂ᗭෝ ❭ᦦ⦹ᩍ š⊂ᗭe᮹ Ñญa 10km ᯕԕᯙ ḡᱱᮝಽ
ᖁᄥ⦹ᩡ݅. vᬑ᪡⦹ᙹ᭥۵ǎaᙹᯱᬱšญ᳦⧊ᱶᅕᜅ▽
(WAMIS)᮹š⊂ᯱഭෝ⪽ᬊ⦹ᩡᮝ໑, ḡ⦹ᙹ᭥۵ǎaḡ⦹ᙹš
⊂(GIMS)᮹š⊂ ᯱഭෝ ᯕᬊ⦹ᩡ݅. b š⊂ᯱഭ᮹ ʙᯕa
↽ᗭ 8֥ ᯕᔢᯕ໑ ᩑᗮࡽ đ⊂ᯝᯕ ↽ᰆ 10ᯝ ᯕ⦹ᯙ ḡᩎᮥ
ᖁᱶ⦹ᩡ݅. ⩥ᰍ ᩑǍ۵ 4ݡv ᔍᨦᱥ᮹ Ğ⨆ᖒᮥ ᇥᕾ⦹ᩡŁ
ᔍᨦ⬥᮹ ᯱഭ۵ ʙᯕaṈᦥ əᨱ ݡ⦽Ğ⨆ᖒᮥ ❱݉⦹ʑᨱ
ྕญaᯩᨕᔍᨦᱥ᮹ᯱഭᨱݡ⧕ᕽĞ⨆ᖒᮥᇥᕾ⦹ᩍḡᙹෝ
ᔑᱶ⦹ᩡ݅. ə đŝ Ǎၙ, ⋁ł, Ӻ݉ᮥ ᱽ⦽ ⅾ 5} ḡᩎᮥ
ᖁᱶ⧁ᙹᯩᨩ݅. bᩑǍḡᱱᄥš⊂ᗭᮡ݅ᮭŝzᯕTable 2᪡ Fig. 1ᨱ ᱶญ⦹ᩡ݅.
4. ᩑǍđŝ
4.1 1ఙ܄൞ଲডࢂॷࠜധඝଭট୨
1₉ߙ❭ᯕᖅྙᮡ}ႊ⩶ḩྙᮝಽ22}᮹ḡ⢽ᨱݡ⦽᮹čᮥ
ᙹಕ⦹Łᇡᱢ⧊⦽ḡ⢽ॅᨱݡ⦽᮹čᮥ᳦⧊⦹Łᱥℕᱥྙa
Ḳ݉ᵲ80% ᯕᔢ᮹᮹čᯕᇡᱢ⧊⦹݅Ł❱݉⦹ᩡᮥভəḡ⢽ॅ
Table 3. Drought Vulnerability Index Before the Application of Delphi Method
Index Gangjeong Dalseong Sangju haman Hapcheon
Annual Average Groundwater Level 0.5 0.5 3 -0.5 3
Annual Minimum Groundwater Level -0.5 3 -0.5 -0.5 3
Annual Average River Level 0.5 3 3 3 3
Annual Minimum River Level 3 3 3 3 0.5
Number of Non-Rainy Days -0.5 -0.5 0.5 0.5 -0.5
Rainfall Concentration Ratio -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5
Rainfall Deviation 0.5 0.5 3 0.5 3
The Amount of Water Available per Capita 3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Water Usage Equity -3 -3 -0.5 -3 -3
Financial Soundness for Water Resources -0.5 -0.5 -3 0.5 -0.5
Local Water Independence Ratio -0.5 -0.5 0.5 3 2
Water Withdrawal Ratio -0.5 -0.5 -3 -0.5 -1
Vulnerability index 1.5 5 6 6 9.5
Table 4. Indicator Through the Delphi Method the Weights for Results Item Group Weights for groups
Indicators Weight for indicators
Sum Weight Sum Weight
Drought Vulnerability
Hydrology
1
0.316
Annual Average Groundwater Level
1
0.256 Annual Minimum Groundwater Level 0.219 Annual Average River Level 0.354
Annual Minimum River Level 0.171
Precipitation
pattern 0.396
Number of Non-Rainy Days
1
0.305 Rainfall Concentration Ratio 0.392
Rainfall Deviation 0.303
Humanity 0.288
The Amount of Water Available per Capita
1
0.233
Water Usage Equity 0.226
Financial Soundness for Water Resources 0.162 Local Water Independence Ratio 0.226
Water Withdrawal Ratio 0.153
ᮡᱽ⦹Ł↽᳦ᱢᮝಽaྥᨱᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹۵ḡ⢽ॅᮥᖁᱶ⦹ᩡ
݅. ᖁᱶࡽ ḡ⢽۵ ݅ᮭ᮹ Table 3ŝ z݅.
↽᳦ᱢᮝಽ ᖁᱶࡽ ḡ⢽۵ ⅾ 12}ಽ ᙹྙ⦺ᱢ ḡ⢽a 4}, vᬑᔍᔢᱢḡ⢽a3}, ᯙྙ⦺ᱢḡ⢽a5}ಽǍᖒࡹᨩ݅. ᙹྙ
⦺ᱢḡ⢽ᵲᱽࡽäᮡᩑ↽ݡḡ⦹ᙹ᭥, ᩑ↽ݡ⦹ᙹ᭥ಽ
aྥᨱၙ⊹۵ᩢ⨆ᯕၙၙ⦹ᩍᱽࡹᨩ݅. vᬑᔍᔢᱢḡ⢽ᨱᕽ ۵ ᩑ vᙹప, 80mm/day ᯕᔢ ᩑ vᬑᯝᙹa ᱽࡹᨩ݅. ᩑ
vᙹప᮹ Ğᬑ vᙹప᮹ ᷾aపᮥ ᔕ⠕ᅝ ᙹ ᯩ۵ ḡ⢽ᯕḡอ
aྥᨱၙ⊹۵ᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹ḡ۵༜⦹Łᖁᱶࡽḡ⢽ᵲvᬑḲᵲශ ᨱᕽ vᬑ vࠥᨱ ݡ⧕ᕽ Łಅ⧁ ᙹ ᯩᨕ aྥᨱ ⓑ ᩢ⨆ᮥ
ၙ⊽݅۵ᯕᮁಽᱽࡹᨩ݅. 80mm/day ᯕᔢᩑvᬑᯝᙹੱ⦽
vᬑḲᵲශŝᵲᅖࡹ۵ᖒ⨆ᮥaḡ۵ḡ⢽ಽ↽᳦ᱢᯙḡ⢽ᨱᕽ ۵ᱽࡹᨩ݅. ᯙྙ⦺ᱢḡ⢽ᨱᕽ۵ᙹᯱᬱᇡ᳕పᯕ1ᯙݚaᬊ
ᙹᯱᬱŝᵲᅖࡹ۵ᖒ⨆ᮥaᲙᱽࡹᨩŁ, ḡᩎᄥᬊᙹᯕᬊపᮡ
ྜྷᯱɪශᨱ⡍⧉ࡹᨕᯩᨕᵲᅖࡹ໑ᬊᙹᯕᬊపอᮝಽ۵aྥᨱ
ᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹ḡᦫ۵݅۵ᯕᮁಽᱽࡹᨩ݅. ᔢ, ⦹ᙹࠥᅕɪශŝ
ᔢ, ⦹ᙹࠥɩĊ₉ḡ⢽۵ྜྷᯕᬊŖ⠪ᖒᮥ☖⧕༉ࢱŁಅ⧁
ᙹ ᯩ۵ ḡ⢽ಽ ᱶ᮹ࡹᨕ ↽᳦ᱢᯙ ḡ⢽ᨱᕽ ᱽࡹᨩ݅.
4.2 լේনՑ୨ଡധඝஜฃ
↽᳦ᱢᮝಽᖁᱶࡽḡ⢽ॅ᮹ᯱഭෝMann-Kendall Test, Hotelling- Pabst Test, Sen’s Testෝ ☖⧕ Ğ⨆ᖒ ᮁྕᨱ ⢽ᵡ⪵ෝ
Fig. 2. Drought Vulnerability Index Before the Application of Delphi Method
Fig. 3. Delphi Chart for Groups
Fig. 4. Delphi Chart for Hydrology Indicators
Fig. 5. Delphi Chart for Precipitation Indicators
☖⧕݅ᮭŝzᮡđŝaӹ᪵݅. ᯱᖙ⦽ᔍ⧎ᮡTable 4᪡Fig. 2ᨱ
ᯱᖙ⯩ ӹ┡ԍ݅.
⢽ᵡ⪵᮹đŝෝᅕíࡹ໕⧊ḡᩎᯕ9.5ಽaᰆ׳ᮡᱱᙹෝ
aḡíࡹᨩ݅. ⧊ḡᩎᮡᩑ⠪Ɂ, ↽ᱡḡ⦹ᙹ᭥᪡ᩑ⠪Ɂ
⦹ᙹ᭥aĞ⨆ᖒᮥaḡ໑⦹v⦹ŁᯩŁvᬑ⠙₉ᮉᯕ᷾a⦹
۵Ğ⨆ᖒᮥᨕ↽Łᱱᯙ3ᱱᮥၼíࡹᨩ݅. ྜྷᯕᬊŖ⠪ᖒŝ
≉ᙹᮉᨱᕽaྥ᮹᭥⨹ᖒᮥ⧕ᗭ⦹Łᯩḡอ݅ෙᇡᇥ᮹᭥⨹ᖒ
ᮥ⧕ᗭ⦹ʑᨱᇡ᳒⦽༉ᮥᅕᯕŁᯩ݅. ᔢᵝ᪡⧉ᦩḡᩎᨱᕽ
6ᱱᮥӹ┡ԕ໕ᕽaྥᨱ≉᧞⦽ḡᩎᮝಽӹ┡ԍ݅. ᔢᵝḡᩎᮡ
ᙹྙ⦺ᱢḡ⢽ᯙᩑ⠪Ɂḡ⦹ᙹ᭥᪡ᩑ⠪Ɂ⦹ᙹ᭥, ↽ᱡ⦹ᙹ
᭥a⦹v⦹۵Ğ⨆ᖒᮥ໑ᮁ᮹⦹íӹ┡ӹᙹྙ⦺ᱢḡ⢽ᨱᕽ อ8.5ෝ₉ḡ⦹Łᯩ݅. ᙹྙ⦺ᱢšᱱᨱᕽ᮹šญႊᦩᯕ⦥⦹
݅Ł ❱݉ࡽ݅. vᬑ ᔍᔢ ḡ⢽ᨱᕽࠥ vᬑ ⠙₉ᮉᯕ ᷾a⦹۵
Ğ⨆ᮥaḡ໑3ᱱᮥ⫮ा⦹íࡹᨕᙹᯱᬱšญᨱᨕಅᬕḡᩎᯕ
Ł❱݉ࡽ݅. ⧉ᦩḡᩎᮡᩑ⠪Ɂ⦹ᙹ᭥᪡ᩑ↽ᱡ⦹ᙹ᭥ᨱᕽ
⦹v⦹۵Ğ⨆ᮥŁᯩᨕ3ᱱᮥӹ┡ԕŁᯩ݅. ੱ⦽ྜྷᯱɪශᨱ ᕽ ⦹v⦹۵ Ğ⨆ᮥ ᅕᯕ໑ aྥᮥ ⧕ᗭ⦹۵ߑ ฯᮡ ᨕಅᬡᯕ
ᯩᮥ äᮝಽ ᅕᩍ ḥ݅. ⢽ᵡ⪵ෝ ☖⧕ aᵲ⊹᮹ }ֱ ᨧᯕ b
zᮡᔑᱶđŝaӹ┡ӹíࡽ݅. aྥᨱᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹۵ᱶࠥa
z݅Ł ❱݉⧁ᙹ ᨧʑ ভྙᨱᯕᨱ ݡ⧕ᕽ aᵲ⊹ෝᔑᱶ⦹ᩍ
ᅕ݅ ᱶ⪶ᖒ ᯩ۵ đŝa ⦥⦹݅.
4.3 ܄൞ଲࢺ࣑ଡധౖஂԧண౿ॺ୨էր
ߙ❭ᯕႊჶᮥᯕᬊ⦹ᩍᖅྙᮥ☖⧕ᔑᱶࡽaᵲ⊹đŝᯕ݅.
Fig. 3~6۵↽᳦ᖅྙᮥၵ┶ᮝಽอॅᨕḥߙ❭ᯕ₉✙ᯕ݅.
ߙ❭ᯕ ₉✙᮹Ğᬑ ⫭ᔪᮝಽ ӹ┡ӽสݡa ᵲe s᮹ᇥ⡍ෝ
ӹ┡ԕŁáᮡᔪᮝಽӹ┡ӽสݡaᔢ᭥25%᮹ᇥ⡍ෝӹ┡ԕŁ
ᯩ݅. ᧨ᮡสݡ᮹Ğᬑᵲesᨱᕽ↽ݴsŝ↽ᘀs᮹₉ᯕෝ
ӹ┡ԕᵝŁᯩ݅. ߙ❭ᯕᖅྙ᮹᮲ݖᮥၵ┶ᮝಽᯕෝࠥ⪵⦽
Table 5. Drought Vulnerability Index
Index Gangjeong Dalseong Sangju haman Hapcheon
Annual Average Groundwater Level 0.013 0.013 0.081 -0.013 0.081
Annual Minimum Groundwater Level -0.012 0.069 -0.012 -0.012 0.069
Annual Average River Level 0.019 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112
Annual Minimum River Level 0.054 0.054 0.054 0.054 0.009
Number of Non-Rainy Days -0.020 -0.020 0.020 0.020 -0.020
Rainfall Concentration Ratio -0.026 -0.026 -0.026 -0.026 -0.026
Rainfall Deviation 0.020 0.020 0.120 0.020 0.120
The Amount of Water Available per Capita 0.067 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.011
Water Usage Equity -0.065 -0.065 -0.011 -0.065 -0.065
Financial Soundness for Water Resources -0.008 -0.008 -0.047 0.008 -0.008
Local Water Independence Ratio -0.011 -0.011 0.011 0.065 0.043
Water Withdrawal Ratio -0.007 -0.007 -0.044 -0.007 -0.015
Vulnerability index 0.025 0.143 0.270 0.167 0.312
Fig. 7. Drought Vulnerability Index
₉✙ᯕ݅. ݡᇡᇥ᮹ߙ❭ᯕ₉✙ᨱᕽݡᇡᇥᯕ᮹čᯕ༉ᦥḡ໕ᕽ
aᵲ⊹᮹ᝁᖒᮥaḡŁᯩ۵äᮥᅝᙹᯩ݅. ᩑ↽ᱡ⦹ᙹ᭥۵
↽ᘀsᯕ ฯᯕ ԏí ӹ┡ӹ۵ߑ ᯕ۵ ᖅྙ ₙᩍᯱ ᵲ ᩑ ↽ᱡ
⦹ᙹ᭥ᨱݡ⧕ᕽᩑᵲ↽ᱡ⦹ᙹ᭥᮹ᙹ᭥อᮝಽaྥᩍᇡෝ
❱݉⦹۵ߑᝁᖒᯕ᳑ɩਉᨕḥ݅۵᮹čᯕᨩ݅. ᯕಽᯙ⧕ᵲe
sŝ↽ᘀs᮹₉ᯕaⓍíӹ┡ӹíࡹᨩ݅. Table 5۵ᖅྙᮥ
☖⧕ ᨕḥ ↽᳦ aᵲ⊹ෝ ᔑᱶ⦹ᩡ݅.
ᖅྙđŝᙹྙ⦺ᱢḡ⢽, vᬑᔍᔢᱢḡ⢽, ᯙྙ⦺ᱢḡ⢽ᵲ
vᬑ ᔍᔢᱢ ḡ⢽a ↽Ł ᱱᙹ 1ᵲ 0.396ᮥ ӹ┡ԕ໑ aᰆ ⓑ
aᵲ⊹ෝaᲭŁᯙྙ⦺ᱢḡ⢽a0.288ಽaᰆԏᮡaᵲ⊹ෝ
wíࡹᨩ݅. ᙹྙ⦺ᱢḡ⢽ᨱᕽ۵ᩑ↽ᱡ⦹ᙹ᭥aօaḡ
ḡ⢽ᵲ0.354ಽaᰆ׳íӹ┡ԍŁᩑ↽ᱡḡ⦹ᙹ᭥a0.256᮹
aᵲ⊹ෝwíࡹᨩ݅. vᬑᔍᔢᱢḡ⢽ᵲྕvᬑᯝᙹa0.392ಽ
aᰆ׳íӹ┡ԍᮝ໑vᬑḲᵲශŝvᬑ⠙₉ᮉᯕ0.305, 0.303᮹
aᵲ⊹ෝwíࡹᨩ݅. ᯙྙ⦺ᱢḡ⢽ᵲᨱᕽ۵1ᯙݚaᬊᙹᯱᬱ ᯕ0.233ᮝಽaᰆ׳íӹ┡ԍᮝ໑aྥᨱaᰆⓑᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊽݅
۵đŝaӹ᪵݅. ྜྷᯕᬊŖ⠪ᖒŝྜྷᯱɪශᯕ0.226ᮝಽ݅ᮭᮝ ಽ ᩢ⨆ᮥ ၙ⊽݅۵ ᮹čᯕᨩ݅. ᯕෝ ၵ┶ᮝಽ ↽᳦ᱢᯙ aྥ
≉᧞ᖒ ḡᙹෝ ᔑ⇽⦹ᩡ݅.
4.4 ౖஂԧࢇ౫ઊনԹࢳ
Ğ⨆ᖒáᱶᮝಽ⢽ᵡ⪵⦽ḡ⢽ᨱaᵲ⊹ෝᱢᬊ⦽đŝᯕ݅.
⢽ᵡ⪵อᮥ⦹ᩡᮥভ9.5ಽaᰆ׳ᮡ≉᧞ᖒᮥᅕᩡ⧊
ḡᩎᮡaᵲ⊹ෝᱢᬊ⦹ᩡᮥভ0.312ಽӹ┡ԍ݅. ᔢᵝ᪡⧉ᦩᮡ
⢽ᵡ⪵⬥6ᱱᮥၼᦹᮝӹaᵲ⊹ᱢᬊ⬥bb0.27ŝ0.167ᮥ
ၼᮝ໑ ฯᮡ ₉ᯕa ӹ┡ԍ݅. ᯕ۵ aᵲ⊹ෝ ᱢᬊ⦹í ࡹ໕ᕽ
vᬑ ᔍᔢ ᇥᨱᕽ aྥᨱ ≉᧞⧉ᮥ ऽ్ԕ໕ᕽ ฯᮡ ᱱᙹෝ
íࡹᨩŁ⧉ᦩᮡᔢݡᱢᮝಽᯙྙᇥᨱᕽ≉᧞⧉ᮥऽ్ԩᮝ ӹaᵲ⊹ෝᱢᬊ⧩ᮥভaᵲ⊹aᱢíᔑᱶࡹᨕ↽᳦ᱢᯙaྥ
≉᧞ᖒḡᙹᨱᕽ۵ԏíӹ┡ԍ݅. Ğ⨆ᖒáᱶᮥ☖⦽⢽ᵡ⪵⦽
ḡᙹෝ ᔍᬊ⦹í ࡹ໕ aྥᨱ ᩢ⨆ᮥ ӝ⊹۵ bb᮹ ᩢ⨆ಆᯕ
݅ෙߑၵಽᱢᬊ⦹ᩍ≉᧞ᖒᮥ⠪a⦹ʑᨱ۵ฯᮡྕญaᯩ݅.
ߙ❭ᯕႊჶ᮹ᖅྙᮥ☖⧕ᩍ్ᙹᯱᬱᇥ᮹ᱥྙaॅ᮹᮹čᮥ
ၹᩢ⦹ᩍaᵲ⊹ෝđᱶ⦹ᩡ݅. ᯕෝᱢᬊ⦹ᩍᔑ⇽ࡽ↽᳦≉᧞ᖒ
ḡᙹ۵ᙹ⊹ᱢᮝಽ༉ܩ░ย᮹}ֱᮥ⡍⧉⦽ḡᙹ᪡ᇩᨕᙹᯱ
ᬱᱥྙaॅ᮹᮹čᮥၹᩢ⦹ᩍ~šᱢᯕŁᝁᖒᮥ׳ᯙ≉᧞ᖒ
ḡᙹŁ ❱݉ࡽ݅.
5. đು
ᅙ ᩑǍᨱᕽ۵ ŝÑ᮹ ᯱഭෝ ᙹḲ⦹ᩍ ᯕᨱ ݡ⦽ Ğ⨆ᖒᮥ
☖⧕ ༉ܩ░ย᮹ }ֱᮥ ⡍⧉⦽ ḡᙹෝ }ၽ⦹ᩡ݅. ᯕ۵ ŝÑ
ᯱഭෝ☖⧕ʑ⬥ᄡ⪵ၰࠥ⪵, ᅖḡ॒᮹ᄡ⪵a⡍⧉ࡹᨕᯩ۵
aྥ≉᧞ᖒḡᙹᯕ݅. ᯕᨱᙹᯱᬱᇥᩑǍෝ⦹Łᯩ۵ᱥྙa
Ḳ݉ᮥǍᖒ⦹ᩍߙ❭ᯕႊჶ᮹ᖅྙᮥ☖⧕bᇥᄥbḡ⢽ᄥ
aᵲ⊹ෝݍญ⦹ᩍ↽᳦ᱢᯙ ≉᧞ᖒḡᙹෝᔑᱶ⦹ᩍ~šᖒᮥ
ᇡᩍ⦹ᩡ݅. ᯕෝӺ࠺vᮁᩎ᮹vᱶ, ݍᖒ, ᔢᵝ, ⧉ᦩ, ⧊ᨱ
ᱢᬊ⦹ᩡ݅.
aᵲ⊹ෝᇡᩍ⦹ʑᱥᨱ۵⋁łŝ⧊ᯕaᰆ≉᧞⦽ḡᩎᮝಽ
ӹ┡ԍḡอ↽᳦aྥ≉᧞ᖒḡᙹᔑᱶđŝ⧊ᯕaᰆ≉᧞⦽
ḡᩎᮝಽӹ┡ԍ݅. ੱ⦽aᵲ⊹ෝᇡᩍ⦹ᩡᮥভᔢᵝੱ⦽ᔢݡᱢ ᮝಽ≉᧞⦽ḡᩎᮝಽӹ┡ԍ݅. aྥ≉᧞ᖒḡᙹෝᔑᱶ⦹۵ߑ
ᯩᨕᕽbb᮹ḡ⢽aᵲ⦹ḡอ≉᧞⧉᮹ᩢ⨆ᮥၙ⊹۵ᱶࠥ۵
༉ࢱa݅݅. ᯕᨱᙹᯱᬱᇥ᮹ᱥྙaḲ݉ᮥǍᖒ⦹ᩍ᮹čᮥ
ၹᩢ⦽}ᄥᱢᯙaᵲ⊹ෝᇡᩍ⦹۵äᯕ~šᖒŝᝁᖒᮥ׳ᯙ
↽᳦ᱢᯙ ≉᧞ᖒ ḡᙹŁ ⧁ ᙹ ᯩ݅.
Ğ⨆ᖒáᱶᮥ☖⦽⢽ᵡ⪵ႊჶᨱᕽᵲ⦽äᮡᯱഭ᮹ʙᯕ᪡
ᝁᖒᯕŁ⧁ᙹᯩ݅. bʑšᨱᕽšญ⦹Łᯩ۵⦹ᙹ᭥, ḡ⦹ᙹ᭥॒᮹sᮡđ⊂ᯝᯕ݅ᙹၽčࡹᨩŁ, ḡ⦹ᙹ᭥᮹Ğᬑ
ᯱഭ᮹ʙᯕaṈ݅. Ğ⨆ᖒáᱶᮥ☖⧕༉ܩ░ย᮹}ֱᮥ᯦ࠥ⦹
ᩍ ≉᧞ᖒ ḡᙹ ᔑᱶႊჶᮥ }ၽ⦽ đŝ š⊂ʑe᮹ ᰆʑ⪵᪡
ᇩᨕᯱഭ᮹ḩ᮹⨆ᔢᯕᯕᨕḥ݅໕ʑ⬥ᄡ⪵, ࠥ⪵, ᅖḡ᮹
eᨱ ⮱ᨱ ෙ ≉᧞ᖒ ḡᙹ᮹ ᄡ⪵ ੱ⦽ ࠥ༉⧁ ᙹ ᯩᮥ
äᯕ ❱݉ࡽ݅.
aᵲ⊹ෝđᱶ⦹۵ߑᯩᨕᕽᙹᯱᬱᱥℕᱢᯙႊ໕ᨱݡ⧕ᕽ
ᖅྙᮥᝅ⦹ᩡŁᯕᨱݡ⦽äᮥᱢᬊ⦹ᩡ݅. ⬥ᗮᩑǍಽᯕᨱ
ݡ⧕ᕽḡᩎᱢᯙ⠙₉ෝŁಅ⦹Łḡᩎᱢᯙ✚ᖒᮥ❭ᦦ⦹ᩍᖅྙ
ᮥᝅ⦽݅໕ḡᩎ✚ᖒᨱෙaᵲ⊹ෝݍญ⦹ᩍᅕ݅ᱶ⪶⦽
≉᧞ᖒ ḡᙹa ᔑᱶࢁ ᙹ ᯩᮥ äᯕ ❱݉ࡽ݅.
qᔍ᮹ɡ
ᅙᩑǍ۵2012֥Ʊᮂŝ⦺ʑᚁᇡʑⅩᩑǍᔍᨦ-ᵲčᩑǍᯱ
(⧖ᝍᩑǍ)᮹ᩑǍḡᬱእ(2012-005348)ෝḡᬱၼᦥᙹ⧪ࡽᩑǍ
᯦ܩ݅.
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