▣ References ▣
Ⅱ. Results and discussion
energy infrastructure, the increase of the attraction and competitiveness of eastern Russian territories.
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-China - Korea. Resources base: Kovyktinskoe gaseous-condensate deposit (Irkutsk region), deposits of natural gas in Western Yakutia and Krasnoyarsk area. Potential possibilities to export natural gas amount to 30∼35 billion m3/year.
Second stage (2010 2020):
v Formation of regional gas-transport system in Western Siberia and construction of export gas main Western Siberia - Eastern Siberia - North-East Asia countries (China, Korea). Resources base: deposits of natural gas in Western Siberia.
Potential possibilities to export natural gas amount to 25∼30 billion m3/year.
v Formation of regional gas-transport system in Far East and construction of export gas mains to Japan and other countries of North-East Asia (North and South Korea). Resources base: deposits of natural gas in Central Yakutia and Sakhalin shelf.
Potential possibilities to export natural gas amount to 25∼30 billion m3/year.
The implementation of second stage looks very rational and extremely important for south of Far East as it not only allows the gasification of Khabarovsk and Littoral areas and south of Sakhalin, but also it provides the optimum option of the deposits development. This is due to that the highest gas consumption on the territory of Far East electric energy region falls on winter season, and in Japan and Korea - on hot summer months.
Technical-economical parameters of main and export gas pipelines are given in table 1. The estimations were carried out under program of forming "The Strategy of Fuel and Energy Potential Development In Far East Economic Region until the year 2020" as well as under Feasibility studies of the options to develop gas transport system of the country. The results of pre-design exploration stage of the Kovyktinskoe deposit, those of projects "Sakhalin 1,2" etc were used as initial data. As the estimations show the summarized capital investments on the gas complex development in Western Siberia and in Far East amount for 33-34 billion USD. (table 2).
[Fig. 1] Formation of gas-transport network and export gas pipe line system in the East of Russia
Reference: data used are from the study of A. A. Iilynsky "Resources of oil and gas in Russia at the border of centuries (monograph) - Edition "Mir", М., 1998,p.520
The alternative of the development of strategic partnership between Russia and South Korea in the field of power generation is the development of the electric power export and the establishing of united power area for the countries of South-East Asia in the future. Actually the summarized generation of electric energy by RJSC "European
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-<Table 1> Technical-economical characteristics of export gas mains
Gas pipe lines Length, km D i a m e t e r , mm
Needs in investments, MUSD
Chayandinskoe GCD Kovyktinskoe GCD 860 1020 803,9 Kovyktinskoe GCD Irkutsk-Ulan Bator-Beijing 2550 1420 2954,6
Proskokovo-Achinsk 416 1220 439,4
Achinsk-Krasnoyarsk-Irkutsk-Ulan
Ude -Chita-Shenyan 3664 1420 4245,5
Yurubcheno Tokhomskoe-Achinsk 750 1220 855,0 Sobinovskoe GCD-Yurubcheno-Tokhomskoe 360 1020 328,1 Deposits of Central Yakutia-Yakutsk- Tynda-
Blagoveshchensk -Khabarovsk 2695 1020 2605,1
Val-Komsomolsk-Khabarovsk 920 1020 1070,2
Khabarovsk-Vladivostok-Pyongyang- Seoul 1470 1220 1675,8
Val-Prigorodnoe 683 1220 778,6
Reference: Information used is from the project: Development of criteria and estimation of large-scale investment projects for the construction of export main pipelines (contractor Saint-Petersburg State Mining Institute) - "Gasprom", М., 2002, p. 327
Power Grid"amounts to more than 630 billion kW/hour (in 2002), the share of Power Grid of Russian Eastern part being extremely low in the total electric energy output. It makes up 25 billion kW/h, including 15 % - generated by hydropower stations and 85
% - by thermal power stations. Existing low volumes of power generation are determined, first of all, not by possibilities of generating capacities, but by low solvent demand of the industry and municipal-social sector against the background of undeveloped electric power infrastructure in eastern regions.
Within the framework of the implementation of reforms in Russian power grid the change of the tariff policy and the considerable increase of the investment attraction of electric power generation sector both for local and foreign investors are planned. The concept of the reform provides for the creation of following power market participants:
system operator - company which will control the whole Russian grid of power distribution, independent producers of electric energy, established both at the base of
operating power generating companies and new participants of power market, and, finally, distributors, purchasing and distributing the electric energy from the grid.
According to the forecasts of Russian experts, obviously, the relations inside China and Russia will be strengthened and some intergovernmental power grids (IGPG) will be established, including those, being examined in this paper. Probably, at the first stage that could be conventionally adopted as covering the period of up to 2020, some other IGPG would be established, in particular, the electrical ties between Mongolia and Russia will be strengthened.
The second stage of the formation of proper united electric power area will begin after the IGPGs start to have a considerable influence on the energy balances and operation modes of united power grids, the energy transfers by individual IGPGs could tell on the operation modes of several power grids. Transit transfers of energy through any country (for example, through North Korea from Russia or China to South Korea etc) are possible. This will require the coordination of IGPG construction, as well as their effects and the transfer modes at the level of several countries and, lately, may be, at the level of whole united electric power area in North-East Asia. In this case it will be necessary to create conditions and use principles of the united electric power area formation and functioning, in particular it will be necessary to create intergovernmental bodies to consider and settle all these matters.
The problems of the establishing united electric power area relate to the realization of some conditions and principles of its formation. Among them it is possible to distinguish as follows:
․ development of generally acknowledged method for the estimation of IGPG economic efficiency and its application for the substantiation of specific IGPGs.
However, it should take into consideration that many of these ties in the region of North-East Asia will be rather long and expensive. To justify their construction it is necessary to more completely take into account all effects that appear during their construction. This refers especially to the possible saving of installed capacities within the Power Grids under unification;
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-<Table 2> Required investment cost for main gas complex facilities(billion USD)
Subjects of RF,projects 2001-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 Total 2001-2020 Gas extracting industry
Krasnoyarsk area projects:
≪Yurubcheno-Tokhomskiy≫ 0,45 0,54 0,54 0,42 1,95
≪Sobonskiy≫ 0.3 0,49 0,79
Inkutsk region Projects:
≪Kovykhtinskiy≫ 1.11 1,60 2,71
Republic of Sakha(Yakutia) Projects:
≪Chayadinskiy≫ 0,80 0,90 0,80 0,60 3,10
Sakhalin region Projects:
≪Sakhalin-1≫,≪Sakhalin-2≫,≪Sakhalin 0,9-1,02 2,5-2,7 2,55-3,03 1,59-2,01 7,54-8,76
TOTAL 3,26-3,38 5,54-5,74 4,19-,467 3,1-3,52 16,09-17,31
Gas-transferring industry Sakhalin region
Plant for gas liquefaction 0,37 0,37
TOTAL 0,37 0,37
Gas mains Chayadinskoe GCD-Kovyktinskoe
GCD 0,48 0,32 0,80
Kovyktinskoe GCD-Irkutsk-Ulan-Bator-Beiiing 2.95 2.95
Proskovo-Achinsk 0,24 0,20 0,44
Achinsk-Krasnoyarsk-Ulan-Ude-Chita-Shenvang
Yurubcheno-Takhomskoe-Achinsk 0,85 0,85
Sobinskoe GCD-Yurubcheno 0,07 0,26 0,33
Deposits of Central Yakutia-Yakutsk- 0,78 1,82 2,60
Tynda-Blagoveshchensk-Khabarovsk
Gas mains
Val-Komsomolsk-Khanbarovsk- 1,07 1,07
Vladivistok-Pyongyang-Seoul 1,68 1,68
Val-Prigorodnoe 0,80 0,80
TOTAL 5,65 3,96 1,58 4,57 15,76
Main internal gas pipelines Krasnoyarsk area
Vanavara-Tura 0,05 0,05
Republic of Sakha(Yakutia)
Sredneviluyskoe GCD-Takutsk 0,24 0,24
Kamchatka region Kolpakovskoe
GCD-Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskiy 0.22
SUBTOTAL 0,46 0,05 0,22
TOTAL gas complex 9,37-9,49 9,92-10,12 5,77-6,25 7,67-8,09
Notes:1. Investments in to projects "Sakhalin-1", "Sakhalin-2" are Инвестиции в проекты "Са халин-1", "Сахалин-2" are taken in accordance with agreements achieved; the dollar estimation of other projects is based on dollar exchange rate at the date 01.01.2003.
․ development and application of similar method to estimate the financial efficiency and IGPGs. Here, some difficulties in the distribution of costs and effects received (including by expulsion of power stations capacities) between parties (countries, power grids), participating in the specific project, will arise. In particular, it should make the traditional method of project business-plan drawing up more accurate;
․ achievement of agreements on the establishing of IGPG and functioning of the united electric power area at the governmental levels;
․ development of legal and financial-contractual bases to ensure the liability (guarantee), energy safety and controllability of united electric power area;
․ creation of intergovernmental coordinating bodies to develop and operate united electric power area.
The most serious problem, requiring the decision, for the development of international cooperation in the field of power industry consists in the improvement of investment climate in Russia. So, in spite of the investors declarations about their intentions to invest during next 7-8 years 20 billion USD to the projects Sakhalin -1 and Sakhalin -2, subject to the conditions of the products sharing, analysts consider Russia as country, having unfavorable investment climate. Many elements of legal system are not agreed between them and give possibility to arbitrary interpret them.
And in spite that the positive steps in the field of the development of the substantiated fiscal system are taken by passing and executing the Fiscal code, the stable and competitive fiscal mode is still not observed. The investors are more and more concerned about illegal aspects of Russian investment climate. The dependence of judicial power on the executive power as well as on private business circles is still the key problem. The rights of creditors, shareholders and counter agents are infringed.
Opaque system of pricing in the power industry, especially in regard to the prices on heat and electric energy fixes too low prices in the electric power sector, thereby transforming it into the non-attractive sector from the investment point of view.
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-Such situation could be stable only within short period, especially when the demand for electric energy is under decreasing, like it was in 1993-1998. But during the period of economical growth and increased demand for electric energy it is extremely necessary to change the existing situation to attract investors in order to satisfy increasing needs in energy.
Actually, the efforts of V. V. Putin administration and government are directed to the increase of guarantees for foreign investors and to the creation of non-contradictory fiscal system. To attract long-term investments into the power sector the state licensing system of bowels use and the fiscal system are under reforming. The revision of Part II of the Fiscal Code, Investment Laws, especially in regard to so-called "Agreement about the products sharing" takes place. The ratification of the Agreement to Energy Charter dated 1994 and guarantying the rights of foreign investors and shareholders should remain as priority. The agreement aims the keeping the sovereign interests of the state to ensure safety power supply on a level with giving the field of activity to the investors.