Executive Summary
Ⅰ. Background and Aims of Research
❏ Before the 1980s, agricultural areas were widely distributed in the lower part and estuary areas of the Han River. The lower part of the Han River and its estuary are an intermediate stopover site for migratory birds and is one of important bird sanctuaries in Korea.
❏ The lower part and estuary areas of the Han River have been designated and managed as legally protected areas such as cultural heritage protection areas and wetland protection areas. It is also a space that requires continuous protection and preservation.
❏ In this study, land use changes in the lower part and estuary areas of the Han River since the 1980s were analyzed. In addition, qualitative changes in wildlife habitats resulting from the development activities were analyzed by period.
❏ Through the analysis of land use change simulation, future land use in the lower part of the Han River and its estuary was predicted. The qualitative changes in wildlife habitats were also simulated.
Ⅱ. Migratory Bird Census Results in the Lower Part of the Han River and Its Estuary
❏ The number of bird species identified in the migratory bird census in the lower part of the Han River and its estuary was confirmed to be about
58 ∣ 환경평가 지원을 위한 지역 환경현황 분석 시스템 구축 및 운영: 개발사업에 따른 생물 서식지의 질적 변화 Ⅱ
70 species. About 50 species appear in the lower area of the Han River and more than 60 species appear in the estuary of the Han River.
<Figure 1> The number of individuals and species coming by year in the lower part of the Han River and its estuary
<Figure 2> The cumulative number of individuals by species arriving in the lower part of the Han River and its estuary
Executive Summary ∣ 59
Ⅲ. Land Use Changes in the Lower Part of the Han River and Its Estuary
1. Land use change simulation through scenario analysis
❏ Table 1 shows all nine scenarios applied to the InVEST Scenario Generator analysis to predict future changes in land cover for the lower part of the Han River and its estuary.
<Table 1> 9 scenarios applied to InVEST Scenario Generator analysis 10% increase in
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Development activities allowed within wetland protected areas and protected military areas
Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6
Development activities allowed in all protected
areas, DMZ, and North Korea
Scenario 7 Scenario 8 Scenario 9
❏ Urban or built-up areas are predicted to occupy the largest area in the lower part of the Han River and its estuary, according to the InVEST Scenario Generator.
60 ∣ 환경평가 지원을 위한 지역 환경현황 분석 시스템 구축 및 운영: 개발사업에 따른 생물 서식지의 질적 변화 Ⅱ
<Figure 3> Scenario 7 of land use change in the lower part of the Han River and its estuary using the InVEST Scenario Generator
<Figure 4> Scenario 9 of land use change in the lower part of the Han River and its estuary using the InVEST Scenario Generator
Executive Summary ∣ 61
❏ Since the late 1980s, urban or built-up areas have increased by 30% every 10 years compared to the total area. This is a significant reduction of the agricultural area, which is a habitat for wildlife. The quality of wildlife habitats is deteriorating and measures are required to address this problem.
Ⅳ. Wildlife Habitat Quality Assessment in the Lower Part of the Han River and Its Estuary
1. Evaluation of wildlife habitat quality using the InVEST
❏ According to the wildlife habitat quality assessment, Groups 1, 2, and 3 did not significantly change. However, it was confirmed that Groups 4 and 5 experienced great changes. This result is believed to be due to the conversion of agricultural areas into urban or built-up areas.
❏ Forest areas and water bodies, Groups 1 and 2, are considered to maintain a certain area due to the limiting factors of great influence in terms of natural topography and administration.
2. Simulation of wildlife habitat changes through scenario analysis
❏ The study sites were analyzed based on the settings of 10%, 20%, and 30%
expansion of urban and built-up areas which were determined according to the extent of development. In the case of Group 5, it is expected to expand by at least 39.0% and at most 46.1% of the total area. However, in the case of Group 4, it was predicted to remain at around 16.5% or decrease to 9.3%.
❏ These results indicate that the conversion of agricultural areas represented by Group 4 into urban or built-up areas represented by Group 5 is inevitable.
62 ∣ 환경평가 지원을 위한 지역 환경현황 분석 시스템 구축 및 운영: 개발사업에 따른 생물 서식지의 질적 변화 Ⅱ
<Figure 5> Future wildlife habitat quality predictions using the InVEST Scenario Generator model (10% increase of urban or built-up areas)
<Figure 6> Future wildlife habitat quality predictions using the InVEST Scenario Generator model (30% increase of urban or built-up areas)
Executive Summary ∣ 63
Ⅴ. Conclusion and Suggestions
❏ The lower part and estuary areas of the Han River are a place where development projects and environmental conservation collide. It is also a place where the opposition between policies on development and environmental preservation exists. The simulation result of future changes in land use and wildlife habitats derived in this study is expected to be useful in the harmonious implementation of development actions and environmental conservation.
❏ According to the result of scenario analysis, the remaining agricultural land will be severely fragmented. Also, migratory birds coming to farmland will be very negatively affected by development projects. Therefore, it is necessary to study the activity zone of birds outside the regulated areas and more active environmental preservation policies are needed. Policy establishment is required to maintain and preserve the health of biodiversity.
❏ Recently, discussions on the use of the Han River estuary have been actively conducted by both the central and local governments. The efforts are being made to promote sustainable development and peaceful use between the two Koreas in the lower part of the Han River and its estuary.
Incheon Metropolitan City and Gyeonggi Province are actively advocating and promoting the establishment of a management system in which various stakeholders participate.
❏ There is a need for a sustainable development strategy for the lower part of the Han River and its estuary that can promote coexistence with nature and guarantee rational human activities.
Keywords: Han River, Han River Estuary, Winter Migratory Birds Census, Land Cover Simulation, Wildlife Habitat Quality Assessment
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저자약력전동준 (연구책임)
러시아과학아카데미 동물학연구소 이학박사 한국환경정책·평가연구원 선임연구위원(현) djchun@kei.re.kr
주요 연구실적
∙ 남북한 도로망 연결사업의 환경영향평가 방안 (2019)
∙ 국민참여형 환경영향평가 체계 구축 및 제도 개성방안 (2018)