Chapter 3. Diagnosis of Climate Change and Domestic Potential
2. Diagnosis of Changes in the Food Demand and Supply and
Examining the food supply side of food demand and supply, it is clear that domestic food production has decreased year on year, from 7,295 Ktons in 1975 to 4,846 Ktons in 2011; a 33.6% decrease. During the same period food imports have increased about 5.3 times from 3,012 Ktons in 1975 to 15,876 Ktons in 2011. Taking into consideration that a considerable portion of the food import is accounted for by feed grains and the ending inventory is decreasing, the food problem is becoming increasingly serious. On the demand side, grain demand for human consumption decreased approximately 31% from 7,333 Ktons in 1975 to 5,053 Ktons in 2011.
During the same period the demand for grain for feed increased about 13.5 times from 779 Ktons in 1975 to 10,539 Ktons in 2011. The consequence of these changes saw food self-sufficiency greatly reduced from 73% in 1975 to 22.6% in 2011. Food self-sufficiency, including grain for feed, was also considerably reduced from 79.1%
in 1975 to 44.5% in 2011 <Table 3-1>.
Table 3-1. Trend of Changes in the Food Demand and Supply
Unit: Ktons, %
Carry-forward Production Import Food Processing Seed Feed Decrease
Source: Ministry of Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (2012).
The self-sufficiency rate of rice is 83% but the rates for wheat, corn, and soybeans are less than 10%, with the shortfall being supplied by imports <Table 3-2>.
Therefore, in order to analyze the climate change impact on food supply, the food
Diagnosis of Climate Change and Domestic Potential for Food Production 29
Table 3-2. Trend of the Changes in Food Self-Sufficiency except Required Grains and Feeds
Unit: %
Total Rice Barley Wheat Corn Bean Root &
Tuber Crops Others
<Self-Sufficiency Rate including Feed Grains>
1970 80.5 93.1 106.3 15.4 18.9 86.1 100.0 96.9
1975 73.1 94.6 92.0 5.7 8.3 85.8 100.0 100.0
1980 56.0 95.1 57.6 4.8 5.9 35.1 100.0 89.8
1985 48.4 103.3 63.7 0.4 4.1 22.5 100.0 11.6
1990 43.1 108.3 97.4 0.05 1.9 20.1 95.6 13.9
1995 29.1 91.4 67.0 0.3 1.1 9.9 98.4 3.8
2000 29.7 102.9 46.9 0.1 0.9 6.4 99.3 5.2
2005 29.4 102.0 60.0 0.2 0.9 9.7 98.6 10.0
2010 27.6 104.6 24.3 0.9 0.9 10.1 98.7 9.7
2011 22.6 83.0 22.5 1.1 0.8 6.4 97.0 6.7
<Self-Sufficiency Rate excluding Feed Grains>
1970 86.2 93.1 115.1 15.9 82.9 92.3 122.7 100.8
1975 79.1 94.6 96.3 5.8 25.7 97.8 133.1 109.0
1980 69.6 95.1 62.2 4.8 27.1 64.3 111.2 98.9
1985 71.6 103.3 89.6 0.5 15.5 62.7 111.1 52.6
1990 70.3 108.3 97.4 0.05 8.2 64.9 101.2 79.7
1995 55.7 91.4 67.6 0.47 5.0 37.0 108.6 19.9
2000 55.6 102.9 49.7 0.1 3.7 28.2 110.8 18.9
2005 53.4 99.4 63.2 0.4 3.0 30.9 110.0 11.7
2010 54.0 104.6 25.4 1.7 3.8 32.4 109.4 10.6
2011 44.5 83.0 23.7 2.2 3.3 22.5 107.1 7.3
Source: Ministry of Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (2012).
supply sourced from domestic bases and those from overseas import shall be examined simultaneously.
Nationally, the arable land area, which serves as the foundation for domestic food production, the trend has been for constant decreases from the peak in 1968. It has been decreasing by 1% annually from about 2,140 Kha in 1988 to 1,700 Kha in 2011
<Figure 3-3>. In particular, the rice paddy area has been continuously decreasing each year. But, for the dry field area, there has been a recent rebound.
30 Diagnosis of Climate Change and Domestic Potential for Food Production
Figure 3-3. Trend of Changes in the Rice Paddy and Dry Field Areas Unit: Kha
Source: Statistics Korea, National Statistics Portal (http://kosis.kr).
To identify the future potential for domestic food production, the changes in rice paddy and dry field areas are forecasted as follows: The rice paddy area is predicted to continuously decrease due to farmland conversion and fallow, from 984 Kha in 2010 to 924 Kha in 2020, 832 Kha in 2030, 738 Kha in 2040, and 643 Kha in 2050 (KREI KASMO Baseline applied, 2012); while the dry field area is predicted to decrease from 731 Kha in 2010 to 680 Kha in 2020, but to rebound to 704 Kha in 2030, 733 Kha in 2040, and 762 Kha in 2050, when it will exceed the area under rice paddy cultivation.13 Therefore, the forecast is that the total arable land area will be 1,710 Kha in 2010, 1,600 Kha in 2020, 1,536 Kha in 2030, 1,471 Kha in 2040, and 1,406 Kha in 2050 <Figure 3-4>.
13 The reason why the decreasing trend of dry field area becomes an increasing trend in 2020 can be explained as follows: As the market liberalization under the FTA has accelerated recently, the cultivation area for dry field crops with low price competitiveness such as vegetables, barley, miscellaneous grains, and fruits is expected to decrease until 2020. After 2020, however, as most FTA tariffs changes to tariff-free, the trend for import to increase will slow, resulting in slowing down of the rate of decrease trend in dry field cultivation areas. Also, the recent increase in the cultivation area for such dry field crops as beans, wheat, green fruits, and feed crops will also contribute to converting the trend of decreasing dry field areas into an increasing trend.
Rice Paddy Dry Field
Diagnosis of Climate Change and Domestic Potential for Food Production 31 Figure 3-4. Forecast of Changes in the Rice Paddy and Dry Field Areas
Source: KREI KASMO Baseline Applied, 2012.
In order to determine the extent of the retention of the arable land area, a key element for food production, the arable land area was estimated taking the target value for food self-sufficiency into consideration. In accordance with the Act on Agriculture, Farm Village and Food Industry, the Ministry of Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries set the target for grain self-sufficiency (including feed grain) for 2020 target to 32% in July 2011. In order to achieve this grain self-sufficiency, the self-sufficiency rates of rice and legumes were raised respectively to 98% and 40%. As a result, the utilization area was estimated at 1,865 Kha and the required arable land area as 1,752 Kha (Kim Jeong-ho, et al., 2011). It is expected that there would be no problem in maintaining the rice paddy area for achieving the government target for grain self-sufficiency rate by 2020. However, as the required arable land area appears to be short of the 1,750 Kha required by some 150 Kha, plans to expand the arable land utilization rate are required <Table 3-3>. On the other hand, if the domestic rice production base is to be secured then appropriate measures to prepare for continuous decrease of the rice paddy area after 2030 should be developed.
Rice Paddy Area Baseline Dry Field Area ( Kha)
32 Diagnosis of Climate Change and Domestic Potential for Food Production
Table 3-3. Estimation of Required Arable land area (at the set grain sufficiency rate of 32%)
2010
(Actual Value) 2015 2020
Arable Area ( Kha) 1,715 1,638 1,588
Utilization Area ( Kha)1) 1,769 1,872 1,865
- Rice 892 838 790
- Other Grains 182 261 310
- Feed Grains 166 277 2,829
- Vegetables, Fruits, etc.2) 529 496 483
Arable Land Utilization Rate (%) 103.1 114.3 1,174
Grain Sufficiency (%) 27.8 30.0 32.0
Required Arable Land Area ( Kha) 1,744 1,759 1,752
Note: 1) Calculation of the utilization area for 2015 and 2020 excludes the cultivation area for green manure crops.
2) The cultivation area for vegetables and fruit is an estimate.
Source: Kim Jeong-ho, et al. (2011), p.131.