Chapter 2. Current Conditions and Forecast of Domestic and
1. Current Conditions and Forecast of Global Climate Change
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) as presented in the 4th IPCC Climate Change Assessment Report. Also, a forecast of global climate change in accordance with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), a new climate change scenario, is suggested based on the results of research by the National Institute of Meteorological Research. Then, the current condition of domestic climate change is diagnosed using analysis data by the National Institute of Meteorological Research that forecasts future temperature and precipitation under the new climate change scenarios. For RCP 8.5 in particular, the climate change on the Korean Peninsula for the period from 2010 to 2100 are estimated using the equations for estimating average annual temperature and average annual precipitation based on detailed (1km) estimates for South Korea provided by the Climate Change Information Center of the Korean Meteorological Agency.
1. Current Conditions and Forecast of Global Climate Change
Climate refers to the long-term variation in the atmospheric conditions of a specific region or regions, and thus climate change means a gradual change in the climate system, both by natural and artificial causes. Climae change has been in constant flux since the Earth began. The Earth’s climate has alternated between the glacial and the interglacial periods every one hundred thousand years for
14 Diagnosis of Current Conditions and Forecast of Domestic and International Climate Change the past million years and now, fortunately, it is cycling through an interglacial period with its mild weather.
Past climate changes were triggered by natural causes. However, the current ongoing global warming which refers to the average increase of the Earth’s temperature is different from those changes in that it is caused mainly by human activities as opposed to natural causes (Kwon, 2008a). To obtain a systematic and reliable diagnosis for this global warming, periodic scientific analysis on global climate change has been carried out by a UN agency called The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) since 1990. The IPCC has published four assessment reports; in 1990, 1995, 2001 and 2007.4 The current state of global warming, according to the 2007 report, is that CO2 concentration has increased about 1.4 times, from 280 ppm prior to industrialization to 379 ppm in 2005). As a result, it is estimated that the average global temperature has risen by 0.74 ºC (0.56~0.92 ºC).
The average temperature in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly in the late 20th century, has seen the highest temperature change recorded since 1850. Additionally, the trend of rising temperatures in the last 20 years has been found to be more than twice that for the past 100 years.5
As the global climate change is affected by various factors, including the regional characteristics, socioeconomic variables, and meteorological variables, it is estimated through several scenarios, as presented in Table 2.1. The IPCC has provided greenhouse gas emissions scenarios in the climate change assessment reports, by estimating the changes in greenhouse gas concentrations based on demographics and the socio-economic development data.
The SRES divides the emissions scenarios largely into four (A1, A2, B1, B2), and subdivided A1 into modified scenarios (A1F, A1T, A1B) depending on what is emphasized <Table 2-1>. The forecast for future global climate change suggested that the average temperature of the 21st century (2090~2099) would rise within a range of 1.1~6.4 ºC from temperatures recorded in 1980~1999, depending on scenarios.
4 IPCC (2007) is an international organization operating under the auspices of the UN. It was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Its 4th Assessment Report published in April 2007 involved the participation of 2,500 scientists around the world over the period of about six years. 130 countries have recognized the validity of this report (National Advisory Council on Science and Technology, 2007).
5 In the IPCC 4th Report, an unequivocal expression was used that there was no doubt that a warming of the climate system has occurred and that the increase in greenhouse gases was caused by anthropogenic factors.
Diagnosis of Current Conditions and Forecast of Domestic and International Climate Change 15
Table 2-1. Forecast of Temperature Rise in 2100 for Each Emission Scenario Unit: %
Emission Scenario Average Range
Fossil Fuel Intensive (A1FI) 4.0 2.4~6.4
Predominantly Non-Fossil Fuel (A1T) 2.4 1.4~3.8
Balanced (A1B) 2.8 1.7~4.4
Heterogeneous (A2) 3.4 2.0~5.4
Sustainable Development (B1) 1.8 1.1~2.9
Regional Coexistence (B2) 2.4 1.4~3.8
Source: IPCC (2007), p.8
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2007), to be published between 2013~2014, establishes the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) as the basis of new climate change scenarios. The RCP associates the changes in socio-economic circumstances with the radiative forcing, which represents the greenhouse gas concentration emitted by human activities into atmosphere. The RCP classifies climate change scenarios into four types depending on the extent of radiative forcing such as RCP8.5, RCP6.0, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6.
Table 2-2. New Climate Change Scenarios in IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Scenario Radiative
2100 Increase 940 A2(830)~A1FI(970)
A2: Heterogeneous
RCP6.0 Stabilizes at 6W/m2 or lower after 2100
Up to 850 CO2
(Stabilizes after 2100) Stabilize 670 B2(600)~A1B(720) A1B: Balanced
(Stabilizes after 2100) Stabilize 530 B1(550) B1: Sustainable Development
Decrease 420 Restorable by Human Activities
(Impossible to Realize) Note 1) Radiative forcing value is the net effect of other forcing factors than all anthropogenic
greenhouse gases
2) CO2 equivalent (CO2-eq) concentration, calculated by concentration=278×exp (forcing/5.325).
3) RCP8.5 is BAU scenario, which assumes that the greenhouse gases are emitted at the current trend.
4) RCP4.5 is a scenario where greenhouse gas mitigation policy is implemented to a certain extent.
Source: National Institute of Meteorological Research (2011a).
16 Diagnosis of Current Conditions and Forecast of Domestic and International Climate Change Research to forecast global climate change based on RCP scenarios has been carried out by the meteorological research institution in each country, using the meteorological super computer and the global system prediction model. For the USA, the applied meteorology research department of National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has carried out the research to predict global climate change as well as US climate change for each of RCP scenario, since 2011.6 The NCAR’s forecast of global climate change has been carried out with the target year of 2300.
For year 2100, a 4.0ºC temperature rise is forecast using RCP8.5, while a 2.5 ºC increase is forecast using RCP6.0, making the difference between these two scenarios about 1.5 ºC <Figure 2-1>.
Figure 2-1. Forecast for Global Temperature Change in RCP Scenarios
Source: NCAR (2012).
National Institute of Meteorological Research (2011) calculated and announced the forecast for global climate change by 2100 based on RCP, a new international
6 Note that the forecast data for climate change in each RCP scenario and for occurrence of world’s abnormal weather, for which researches have been carried out by the US NCAR, is quoted from the materials published by Dr. Lawrence Buja, the general research director, during the trip to the USA on September 18, 2012 (Kim Chang-gil, 2012d).
Diagnosis of Current Conditions and Forecast of Domestic and International Climate Change 17 standard greenhouse gas scenario, so as to be compatible with the IPCC 5th Assessment Report and to provide Korean Ministries with the necessary scientific data and information for for coping with national climate change. Though it varies depending on RCP scenarios, the average temperature and precipitation are both shown to rise considerably rising under RCP8.5 <Figure 2-2>.
Figure 2-2. Forecast for Global Average Temperature Change under RCP Scenarios
Source: National Institute of Meteorological Research (2011a), p.29.
In comparison to the end of the 20th century (1971~2000), it is forecast that by the end of the 21st century (2071~2099) temperatures would have risen by 2.8 ºC and the precipitation rise by 4.5% under RCP4.5. Under RCP8.5 scenario the rise would be 4.8 ºC and 6% respectively <Table 2-3>.
18 Diagnosis of Current Conditions and Forecast of Domestic and International Climate Change
Table 2-3. Forecast for the Earth’s Average Temperature and Precipitation Change by the End of the 21st Century
RCP scenario RCP4.5 (540 ppm) RCP8.5 (940 ppm)
Global Average
Temperature (ºC) +2.8 ºC +4.8 ºC
Precipitation (%) +4.5% +6.0%
Sea Level 72.7 cm 90.0 cm
Source: National Institute of Meteorological Research (2011a).
It is expected that climate change will bring about frequent abnormal weather conditions all over the world. The frequency and intensity of extreme weather phenomena such as abnormally high Arctic temperatures, local changes in precipitation and snowfall, heat waves, typhoons, torrential rains, heavy snow, and drought has increased. In particular, it is expected that climate polarization will lead to droughts in the arid areas and heavy rains and flooding in areas used to heavy-rain (IPCC, 2007; National Institute of Meteorological Research, 2011a). Indeed, The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) states that recent abnormal weather is no longer ‘abnormal’ but has now become an ‘everyday phenomenon’ which will become worse over time (Kwon, 2012).