Approaches and Roadmap for Policy Implementation

Implementing the countermeasures on developing food supply against climate change requires setting up policy priorities, adoptions of technologies and timeline, and changes of relevant bodies’ behaviors. In order to ensure a successful and lasting implementation, it is important to have an implementation plan with an appropriate timeliness. A roadmap approach provides a plan or map for making the transition from current agricultural system to climate-friendly agricultural system in the future.

In order to develop strategies for a stable food supply in response to climate change it was necessary to empirically analyze a number of relevant factors which covered in the previous chapters. The relevant factors in this case were: the current status of food supply and its potential, the climate change impact on food supply, and the farmers’ awareness of and responses to climate change. Once completed, these analysis results, as well as the results of an analysis of the case studies from international organizations’ and major countries’ were benchmarked. These benchmarks were then used to identify the major tasks for each sector, in terms of four capacities: domestic production capacity, buffering capacity, overseas import capacity, and the capacity to implement policy measures <Figure 6-1>. Domestic production capacity covers extension of adaptation technologies, preservation of farmland, utilization of fusion technologies, modernization of agricultural infrastructure. Buffering capacity encompasses enhancing resilience and biodiversity, managing risk, and increasing food stockpiles. Overseas import capacity includes building overseas food bases, utilizing international grain markets, and strengthening international cooperation. Capcity for policy responses covers elaborating impact analysis model, assessing vulnerability, strengthening education and training, and establishing change response center.

It takes a considerable time to effectively respond to climate change in agricultural sector. Therefore, with 2022 as the target year, major policy programs should be implemented for the next 10 years. The ten year timeline should then be divided into the short-term (2013~2015), the mid-term (2016~2018) and the long-term (2019~2022) to establish a task schedule for constructing a stable food supply system that can cope with climate change. However, it is challenging to clearly divide the

144 Plans for Developing a Stable Food Supply System in Response to Climate Change

Figure 6-1. Framework for the Analysis of Climate Change Impacts and the Countermeasures

○ Conduct systematic analyses of the impact of climate change on food supply.

○ Make the most of the potential for food production, using domestic natural resources.

○ Build up an integrated national food system in consideration of self-sufficiency rate and self-reliance rate.

○ Realize Climate Smart Agriculture, utilizing the IT·BT·NT fusion technology.

○ Develop a risk management system in preparation against the uncertainty of climate change.

Basic Principles for Building up a Stable Food Supply

Analysis of the Current Status of Food Supply and the Potential

Analysis of Climate Change and Its Impact on Food Supply

○ Establish an inventory of adaptation measures and an impact analysis model (OECD), USA, EU, Australia

○ Practice Climate Smart Agriculture in response to climate change (FAO, Japan)

○ Develop a risk management to cope with the uncertainty of climate change (USA, Japan)

○ Strengthen the resilience to cope with climate change (USA, Australia)

○ Apply the results of researches about the countermeasures against climate change to the field (by preparing a manual) (Japan, Australia)

— Continuous decrease of food self-sufficiency rate

— Increase of feed crop import

— Continuous decrease of rice paddy area

— Decrease of crop yield due to temperature rise

— Increased occurrence of blight and pests (unexpected ones)

— Decrease of domestic rice production and increased imports

— Drastic decrease of rice yield upon abnormal weather

— Increased price variability in the international grain market

— Full recognition of climate change

— Negative impact of climate change on future agriculture

— Need for measures to improve grain self-sufficiency

— Abnormal weather has significant impact on yield decrease

— Increased demand for incentives as an adaptation measure

— Increased demand for adaptation technology

— Develop and spread the adaptation technology

— Preserve farmland and expand the use of arable land.

— Utilize the fusion technology

— Modernize the agricultural infrastructure

— Enhance the resilience and the biodiversity

— Develop a risk management system

— Increase the food stockpile

— Construct the overseas food bases

— Utilize the international grain market

— Strengthen the international cooperation

— Elaborate on the impact analysis model

— Assess the vulnerability

— Strengthen education and training

— Establish the weather change response center.

Plans for Developing a Stable Food Supply System in Response to Climate Change 145 timeline according to each key task, as some tasks need to be implemented continuously. For such tasks, a step-by-step policy implementation roadmap is prepared for each sector <Table 6-1>.

Table 6-1. Roadmap for Policy Implementation for Stable Food Supply Division Short Term (2013-2015) Mid Term (2016-2018) Long Term (2019-2022)

Domestic expand the use of arable land - Seek for ways to maintain

the rice paddy area - Increase double-crop or

triple-cropping

• Establish ways to utilize the fusion technology expand the use of arable land - Increase the program to

• Increase the food stockpile - Expand the bases for food

stockpile

• Increase the food stockpile - Establish the food stockpile

bases

146 Plans for Developing a Stable Food Supply System in Response to Climate Change Table 6-1. Roadmap for Policy Implementation for Stable Food Supply (continued)

Division Short Term (2013-2015) Mid Term (2016-2018) Long Term (2019-2022)

Overseas

• Establish the operation of the climate change response center

Plans for Developing a Stable Food Supply System in Response to Climate Change 147