for low internal mobility
International evidence shows a strong positive relationship between human capi-tal and migration. Economic, geographic, or policy-imposed barriers make it harder for low-skilled people to move and suc-ceed in new locations (U N DP 2009).
Census data suggest a strong relationship between educational attainment and the probability to migrate when demographics and employment status are controlled for.
For instance, the probability of moving is much higher for university graduates than for adults with less than primary educa-tion. This migration effect is one of the major channels through which education supports growth, and education of the poor ensures equitable growth and pov-erty reduction.
In the Middle East and North Africa, however, having no education is no differ-ent from having a university degree in terms of the probability of migrating ( figure 2.20).
0 5 10 15 20 25
Internal migration rate (%)
Algeria Egypt,
Arab Rep. Jordan Lebanon Morocco Tunisia
Males Females
FiGURE 2 .17 internal migration rates are higher among women than men in several Middle East and North Africa countries
Source: Arab Barometer Wave IV (2016–17) data.
Note: The internal migration rate is the number of lifetime within-country migrants per 100 adults.
Lifetime internal migration compares the place of current residence with the place of birth (within the same country). For the Probit model estimating probability, see figure 2.15.
10
Unemployment rate, females (%) Some tertiary or postsecondary
Secondary complete Primary complete Primary incomplete No education
0 20 30
Middle East and North Africa Other regions
FiGURE 2 .18 Unemployment rates are higher in the Middle East and North Africa than in upper-middle-income countries of other regions, particularly for educated women
Source: Global Monitoring Database (GMD), Team for Statistical Development, World Bank.
Note: In this figure, “Middle East and North Africa” comprises Djibouti (2012), the Arab Republic of Egypt (2012), the Islamic Republic of Iran (2014), Iraq (2012), Jordan (2010), Lebanon (2011), Morocco (2006), Tunisia (2010), and the Republic of Yemen (2014).
Elsewhere in the world, the probability of migrating increases with every addi-tional year of schooling. In the Middle East and North Africa, the likelihood remains the same regardless of highest degree acquired. This is true at all levels of income.
One explanation for this anomaly is the credential orientation of most educational systems in the Middle East and North Africa.
Despite the region’s high educational comple-tion rates relative to comparator countries, the extent of learning is relatively low. Not a single Middle East and North Africa coun-try’s students performed near the interna-tional median on the recent Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) and Progress in International Reading Literacy (PIRLS) assessments (World Bank 2019b). Learning-adjusted schooling years in the region reflect, on aver-age, approximately three fewer years of edu-cational completion than the world average (World Bank 2019b).
Postsecondary education in the region’s households is not reflected in higher daily expenditure. Consumption expenditure usually rises with educational attainment, but not in the Middle East and North Africa ( figure 2.21). Nevertheless, demand remains strong for credentials to access public sector jobs in the region, but the demand for skills remains relatively weak, partly because of weak signals for the need for skills from the region’s private sector (World Bank 2019b).
The effect of education on the likelihood of getting a public sector job is significantly higher than the likelihood of simply being employed in the region. In the 1990s, the central government’s wages equated to 10 percent of GDP in the Middle East and North Africa—almost double the world average (Makdisi, Fattah, and Limam 2006). As governments rapidly raised requirements for employment, the desired terminal degree that was once a high school diploma became a university education (Salehi-Isfahani 2009). A diploma in hand
–0.10 –0.05 0 0.10
0.05
Marginal effect of migration on probability of employment
No education Primary Secondary Tertiary
Education level Female Male
FiGURE 2 .19 in the Middle East and North Africa, female migrants are more likely than male migrants to be employed
Source: Arab Barometer Wave IV (2016–17) data; Middle East and North Africa Poverty database (MNAPOV), Team for Statistical Development, World Bank.
Note: In this figure, “Middle East and North Africa” comprises six countries covered in the Arab Barometer Wave IV: Algeria, the Arab Republic of Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia.
Predictions are based on a Probit model with the dependent variable being whether the person is employed and covariates include being a migrant interacted with gender, age, marital status, educational attainment, number of children, poverty rate at destination and origin, the log of population density at origin, and country fixed effects at 90 percent confidence intervals. Average poverty rates from World Bank staff at the first administrative level were matched to place of residence and place of birth. Population density was estimated based on Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) of Columbia University, “Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Administrative Unit Center Points with Population Estimates, Revision 11.”
Educational attainnment Primary
Less than primary Secondary Tertiary
Probablity of migrating
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
Middle East and North Africa World
FiGURE 2 .20 Education has virtually no effect on migration in the Middle East and North Africa, in contrast with the rest of the world
Source: Arab Barometer Wave IV (2016-17) data; University of Minnesota’s Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) International database.
Note: Both estimations are based on a Probit model (as in figure 2.15), restricting controls to gender, age, marital status, educational attainment, and country fixed effects for comparability perspective at 90 percent confidence intervals. In this figure, “Middle East and North Africa” comprises six countries covered in the Arab Barometer Wave IV: Algeria, the Arab Republic of Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia. “World” comprises all countries listed in annex 2A, table 2A.1.
increases the chances of working in the public sector (figure 2.22).
By the mid-1990s, the region’s govern-ments faced fiscal contractions, limiting their ability to serve as the employer of
choice. Nevertheless, the wage bill has not changed much since then and remains the highest in the world at 9 percent of GDP, or 30 percent of expenditures (Baddock, Lang, and Srivastava 2016). As such, cre-dentials have historically been viewed as critical to access local public sector jobs, but those credentials have not necessarily endowed individuals with portable skills and may play a part in limiting internal migration.
Concluding remarks
In the Middle East and North Africa, countries exhibit within-country spatial dis-parities that are generally higher than those in countries of comparable income in other regions. In some cases, such as Tunisia, spa-tial disparities have increased across certain dimensions over time instead of declining, as is the pattern elsewhere in the world as incomes rise.
Internal migration rates within many of the region’s countries are significantly lower than in comparator countries—and all while the potential gains from moving to relatively
Some tertiary or postsecondary Secondary complete Primary complete Primary incomplete No education
Daily expenditure per capita (US$ 2011 PPP)
0 10 20 30 40
Middle East and North Africa Other regions
FiGURE 2 .21 Higher education in Middle East and North Africa households is not reflected in daily expenditure as much as in other regions
Source: Middle East and North Africa Poverty database (MNAPOV), Team for Statistical Development, World Bank.
Note: PPP = purchasing power parity.
Marginal effect of education
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Primary Secondary Tertiary
Educational attainnment b. Effect of education on probability of
working outside public sector
Marginal effect of education
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Primary Secondary Tertiary
Educational attainnment a. Effect of education on probability
of working in public sector
FiGURE 2 .22 in the Middle East and North Africa, tertiary education diplomas are highly valued in the public sector
Source: Arab Barometer Wave IV (2016–17) data.
Note: The marginal effects are based on Probit regressions controlling for area of residence (urban or rural), gender, age, number of children, marital status, and country fixed effects at 90 percent confidence intervals.
leading regions could be significant with respect to consumption expenditures. Unlike elsewhere in the world, the likelihood of migration does not increase with attainment of tertiary education. One explanation for lower internal migration is the credential- orientation of most of the region’s education systems, whereby higher diplomas histori-cally enabled greater access to local public sector jobs but did not necessarily confer skills needed to compete for private sector jobs outside of home regions.