leading regions could be significant with respect to consumption expenditures. Unlike elsewhere in the world, the likelihood of migration does not increase with attainment of tertiary education. One explanation for lower internal migration is the credential- orientation of most of the region’s education systems, whereby higher diplomas histori-cally enabled greater access to local public sector jobs but did not necessarily confer skills needed to compete for private sector jobs outside of home regions.
Annex 2A Data sources and
TABLE 2A .1 Sources and years of global census data, by country
Country Year Source
Armenia 2011 National Statistical Service
Benin 2013 National Institute for Statistics and Economic Analysis
Botswana 2011 Central Statistics Office
Burkina Faso 2006 National Institute of Statistics and Demography
Brazil 2010 Institute of Geography and Statistics
Cameroon 2005 Central Bureau of Census and Population Studies
Cambodia 2008 National Institute of Statistics
Chile 2002 National Institute of Statistics
China 2000 National Bureau of Statistics
Colombia 2005 National Administrative Department of Statistics
Costa Rica 2011 National Institute of Statistics and Censuses
Cuba 2002 Office of National Statistics
Dominican Republic 2010 National Statistics Office
Ecuador 2010 National Institute of Statistics and Censuses
Egypt, Arab Rep. 2006 Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics
El Salvador 2007 Department of Statistics and Censuses
Ghana 2010 Ghana Statistical Services
Greece 2011 National Statistical Office
Haiti 2003 Institute of Statistics and Informatics
Honduras 2001 National Institute of Statistics
Indonesia 2010 BPS Statistics Indonesia
Iraq 1997 Central Organization for Statistics and Information Technology
Ireland 2011 Central Statistics Office
Jamaica 2001 Statistical Institute
Kenya 2009 National Bureau of Statistics
Kyrgyz Republic 2009 National Statistical Committee
Liberia 2008 Institute of Statistics and Geo-Information Systems
Malawi 2008 National Statistical Office
Malaysia 2000 Department of Statistics
Mali 2009 National Directorate of Statistics and Informatics
Mexico 2015 National Institute of Statistics, Geography, and Informatics
Mongolia 2000 National Statistical Office
Mozambique 2007 National Institute of Statistics
Papua New Guinea 2000 National Statistical Office
Paraguay 2002 General Directorate of Statistics, Surveys, and Censuses
Peru 2007 National Institute of Statistics and Informatics
Portugal 2011 National Institute of Statistics
Romania 2011 National Institute of Statistics
Rwanda 2012 National Institute of Statistics
Senegal 2002 National Agency of Statistics and Demography
Sierra Leone 2004 Statistics Sierra Leone
Slovenia 2002 Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia
South Africa 2011 Statistics South Africa
Spain 2011 National Institute of Statistics
Sudan 2008 Central Bureau of Statistics
Switzerland 2000 Federal Statistical Office
Tanzania 2012 Bureau of Statistics
Thailand 2000 National Statistical Office
Turkey 2000 Turkish Statistical Institute
Uganda 2002 Bureau of Statistics
Ukraine 2001 State Committee of Statistics
United States 2015 Bureau of the Census
Uruguay 2011 National Institute of Statistics
Venezuela, RB 2001 National Institute of Statistics
Zambia 2010 Central Statistics Office
TABLE 2A .2 Countries and years of survey data
Country Survey year(s)
Argentina 2012, 2014
Benin 2015
Brazil 2009, 2014
Burkina Faso 2009
Cameroon 2007
Chile 2011, 2013
Colombia 2014, 2016
Congo, Dem. Rep. 2012
Costa Rica 2012, 2014, 2016
Djibouti 2012
Ecuador 2014, 2016
Egypt, Arab Rep. 2012
Ethiopia 2010
Ghana 2012
Haiti 2012
Honduras 2012, 2013, 2016
India 2009, 2011
Indonesia 2005, 2011, 2014, 2016 Iran, Islamic Rep. 2009, 2014a
Iraq 2006, 2012
Jordan 2006, 2008, 2010
Kenya 2005
Lao PDR 2007, 2012
Lebanon 2011
Madagascar 2010
Malawi 2010
Malaysia 2016
Mali 2010
Mexico 2014
Mongolia 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014
Morocco 2000, 2006
Mozambique 2008
Niger 2011
Nicaragua 2014
Papua New Guinea 2009
Paraguay 2014
Peru 2014, 2016
Senegal 2011
Sierra Leone 2011
South Africa 2010
Sudan 2009
Tanzania 2011
Thailand 2006, 2009, 2012
Tunisia 2005, 2010
Turkey 2014
Uganda 2012
Ukraine 2016
Uruguay 2012, 2014
Vietnam 2006, 2010, 2012, 2014
Yemen, Rep. 2005, 2014
Zambia 2010
a. For the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2014, the international poverty rate is slightly different from the poverty rate reported by the World Bank in World Development Indicators and PovcalNet. The difference comes from the way welfare aggregate is created. This welfare aggregate excludes expenditure on health and durables for technical reasons and is inter-temporally and spatially deflated to account for changes in prices during the survey period and spatial variation in prices. Detailed explanation of methodology to construct welfare aggregate is available in Atamanov et al. (2016).
Notes
1. Inequality in consumption is calculated based on the Theil index (see annex 2A for data and methodology). Expenditures have been spa-tially deflated to account for price differences across regions. The regional comparison con-trols for income, population, the share of urban population, and the share of popula-tion in the largest city.
2. The Casablanca-Settat region of Morocco was so named in 2015 after the region formerly referred to as Greater Casablanca or Grand Casablanca annexed several provinces.
3. More recent data are available for the entire region and portray a similar picture.
Unfortunately, there is no disaggregation by country. In 2014, estimated infrastructure spending in the Middle East and North Africa was 6.9 percent of GDP (Fay et al. 2019).
Needs were also assessed in various scenarios.
In the preferred scenario, the Middle East and North Africa needs to spend 7.1 percent of GDP to develop infrastructure between 2015 and 2030 to reach ambitious goals. This sce-nario assumes high spending efficiency, which depends on the quality of complementary policies and on measures to reduce unit costs (like better procurement, planning, or execu-tion) (Rozenberg and Fay 2019).
4. Water stress arises when water withdraw-als for human, agricultural, and industrial uses are relatively high compared with the level of renewable water resources—in other words, when the ratio of water withdrawal to water availability is high. It is quantified as the ratio of annual water withdrawals to average annual surface water availability, driven by either climate change under a high emission scenario or socioeconomic change under a business-as-usual scenario for popu-lation growth and the economy. Estimates of surface water stress do not account for with-drawals from groundwater and nonconven-tional water supplies.
5. An “improved” drinking-water source is defined as one that, by nature of its construc-tion or through active intervenconstruc-tion, is pro-tected from outside contamination, in particular from contamination with fecal matter (World Bank 2017a).
6. Task team interviews with local residents.
7. Chapters 1 and 3 explore other key contribu-tors to convergence, such as agglomeration, specialization, and interregional links.
8. Internal migration rates are based on cen-sus data from 38 countries outside the Middle East and North Africa, whose cen-suses include birthplace at the first adminis-trative level for comparability purposes.
The only Middle East and North Africa countries with a census were Egypt and Iraq. Random respondents ages 18 and above were selected from available censuses (see annex 2A, table 2A.1), with half men and half women to be comparable with the Arab Barometer data—which are available for Algeria, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, and West Bank and Gaza. The lat-ter was excluded given the peculiarity of that economy. For Egypt, the Arab Barometer was used instead of that coun-try’s census because that survey was more recent (2016 versus 2006). In Egypt, the Arab Barometer did not survey the Sinai Peninsula, Matruh, New Valley, and Red Sea governorates where collectively less than 2 percent of the population lives.
9. Leading regions are Djibouti City in Djibouti;
Cairo, Alexandria, Suez, and Port-Said in Egypt; Tehran in the Islamic Republic of Iran;
the Kurdistan governorates (Duhouk, Erbil, and Suleimaniya) in Iraq; Amman in Jordan;
the Casablanca-Settat area in Morocco; Great Tunis in Tunisia; and Sana’a in the Republic of Yemen.
10. The sum of endowments and returns effects gives the total welfare gap.
11. These governorates include Sharkiya, Behira, Dakahliya, Domiyat, Gharbiya Ismailia, Kafr-elsheikh, Menofiya, and Kaliobiya.
12. The southernmost provinces exclude Kerman and Sistan.
13. The survey was conducted before the regions were redrawn, after which the region’s name changed to Casablanca-Settat.
14. All data here from the Arab Barometer unless otherwise stated. This is the only dataset with comparable information on lifetime internal migration in six countries in the region.
Although the data and sample are limited in terms of representation and of sector of employment and social network information, the dataset contains the main migration driv-ers such as age, income, and education.
15. Figure 2.17 is a simple bar graph, while the estimated probability is based on the Probit model estimated in figure 2.15.
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