이 연구에서는 부동산시장을 체계적으로 진단할 수 있는 종합적인 분석틀을 마련하여 시장부문별(예 : 가격(Price), 미분양(Unsold Housing), 공급(Supply), 거 래(Transaction) 등) 진단지수를 개발하고, 나아가 혼합 및 종합지수를 개발하였 다. 이러한 연구는 과거 거의 수행되지 않는 연구로 의미있는 시도로 평가된다.
하지만 다음과 같은 점에서 한계가 있으며 이를 보완한 지속적인 연구가 필요하 다. 첫째, 위기기간을 식별할 수 있는 방법의 개선이 필요하다. 이 연구에서는 하 나의 대안으로 월별가격변동률을 이용하여 위기기간을 식별하였지만, FSI 개발 과정에서 보는 것과 같이 전문가 설문조사 등을 이용한 방법 등을 검토할 필요가 있다. 둘째, 부동산시장 조기경보시스템과의 구체적인 연계방안 마련이 필요하 다. 이를 위해 우선적으로 시장진단지수와 조기경보시스템 운영결과를 종합적으 로 비교분석할 필요가 있다. 셋째, 더 나아가 시장진단지수를 이용한 조기경보시 스템 및 조기경보지수 개발이 필요하다. 기존에는 위기 정의 변수로 주택가격변 동률만을 이용하였는데, 전체 주택시장을 포괄할 수 있는 스트레스지수를 위기 정의 변수로 설정하여 모형을 설계하는 것이 필요하다. 마지막으로 주택시장 정 상화 개념의 명확화, 지수의 유용성 평가 등 지속적인 관련 연구의 발전이 필요 하다.
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SUMMARY 51 S ․ U ․ M ․ M ․ A ․ R ․ Y
SUM M ARY
A Study to Develop Real Estate Market Index
Park Chungyu
This study aim s to develop the housing m arket index w hich is regarded as an im portant analysis tool recently. This study com prises of four chapters. Chapter Ⅰ introduces the background and the purpose of the study. Chpater Ⅱ review s various past researches m ainly related to housing m arket fluctuations, housing m arket structure change, and the financial stress index. In chapter Ⅲ, the housing m arket index is developed follow ing the five steps. The first step is to select the sub variables of housing m arket index, such as price, transaction, unsold housing and supply. Following the defining of the desirable level of the sub variables in the second step, the third step is the transform ation of the variables which m eans that the variable are divided by the variable's desirable level defined in the second step. The forth step is to adjust the variables to the sam e direction over tim e. In the last step, the transform ed variables are com bined into a single index. C hapter Ⅳ is sum m ary and conclusions. The housing m arket index increased greatly in 2001, 2002, 2003, and the second half of 2006 com pared to the other tim es and recently suffers a big plunge.
가격 거래 공급 미분양
99.1 173.5 71.3 72.4 65.5
2 160.7 58.9 68.2 68.4
3 61.1 80.3 66.3 71.9
4 48.8 77.0 66.2 75.5
5 36.5 77.6 66.9 79.5
6 0.0 79.3 66.8 81.7
7 36.4 76.4 66.4 82.9
8 108.9 71.7 69.6 82.5
9 156.6 69.7 73.3 86.5
10 96.0 76.3 82.3 91.6
11 (35.7) 82.4 88.1 91.3
12 (59.6) 92.3 101.2 90.0
2000.1 35.9 64.8 101.6 96.6
2 83.7 62.3 103.1 99.3
3 95.3 79.6 107.9 98.8
4 59.4 83.3 112.2 102.6
5 (11.8) 78.2 112.2 101.7
6 (47.3) 81.3 113.4 101.5
7 0.0 59.5 120.1 100.7
8 23.7 65.7 123.5 104.2
9 47.4 62.3 125.2 104.5
10 35.5 82.9 123.2 109.5
11 (35.4) 82.8 116.9 109.4
12 (106.5) 68.9 108.4 109.0
2001.1 (83.0) 47.0 108.1 111.4
2 35.8 64.3 107.3 113.6
3 107.2 93.0 104.0 119.8
4 142.3 105.8 101.9 125.8
5 153.2 111.9 105.1 132.8
6 175.6 108.3 110.2 141.3
7 232.1 99.9 110.2 153.7
8 355.9 105.0 111.5 166.1
9 396.5 107.2 116.1 171.5
10 234.5 109.4 118.5 173.1
11 99.1 113.9 127.3 194.1
12 131.4 126.0 132.5 202.5
2002.1 380.5 116.0 138.5 220.5
2 578.6 121.1 143.8 273.2
3 543.4 149.8 153.0 312.1
<부록 1> 개별지수 추이
54
4 368.8 151.5 159.6 368.3
5 180.8 144.2 164.1 340.2
6 119.5 115.8 164.4 291.3
7 158.3 117.2 165.2 260.2
8 304.4 128.5 164.8 271.1
9 465.0 137.6 162.1 274.1
10 325.6 159.5 163.8 300.1
11 65.7 131.0 163.5 283.8
12 28.0 115.1 166.6 256.0
2003.1 (9.3) 94.9 164.5 240.3
2 56.0 100.4 162.6 262.9
3 139.5 122.8 158.6 270.7
4 184.9 146.5 151.0 255.6
5 284.0 153.0 145.7 282.6
6 263.5 150.1 169.1 258.4
7 105.9 121.1 168.0 249.1
8 62.0 109.5 163.4 211.3
9 131.6 114.6 157.6 259.8
10 206.8 149.1 151.3 265.1
11 (40.0) 130.0 144.2 227.3
12 (132.9) 120.6 146.3 166.8
2004.1 (138.8) 67.7 141.5 155.1
2 22.9 88.0 140.4 158.6
3 45.7 108.7 135.0 159.2
4 41.5 105.5 132.7 161.2
5 (1.8) 95.4 131.3 141.3
6 (30.6) 103.0 104.4 127.4
7 (58.7) 82.7 101.8 128.7
8 (74.6) 83.2 103.8 126.1
9 (68.3) 72.8 105.9 121.1
10 (50.9) 89.5 110.2 108.3
11 (76.8) 93.9 111.8 98.7
12 (96.4) 102.8 116.0 92.3
2005.1 (77.7) 86.4 119.9 94.7
2 35.9 79.2 118.0 98.7
3 78.8 116.7 119.6 109.2
4 107.7 124.5 121.3 113.0
5 125.6 118.3 127.7 122.5
6 152.4 117.5 125.4 126.1
7 184.8 106.7 123.3 122.8
8 133.9 108.4 120.8 131.3
9 67.8 93.8 118.9 127.3
10 (3.5) 96.2 113.1 128.9
11 (4.1) 97.0 109.9 124.9
12 21.6 148.7 115.9 111.5
2006.1 58.8 74.7 116.0 114.3
2 88.1 97.4 118.9 122.2
3 122.9 125.2 117.3 119.6
4 171.4 108.1 117.8 115.0
5 214.0 111.6 110.8 109.1
6 168.3 99.6 113.4 99.1
7 77.8 85.2 121.0 90.8
8 51.3 78.8 121.7 89.9
9 81.4 125.0 125.9 87.2
10 205.3 136.0 125.3 91.3
11 499.9 189.5 126.4 91.7
12 558.1 158.2 117.4 86.5
2007.1 307.6 110.2 112.8 84.4
2 139.0 80.4 110.0 86.7
3 61.4 90.5 108.9 87.2
4 35.2 90.7 106.9 86.9
5 18.4 88.9 107.7 81.2
6 19.1 79.2 104.6 71.3
7 44.5 84.5 101.8 70.4
8 50.4 81.2 108.2 69.6
9 50.7 69.4 111.6 65.0
10 58.4 100.5 131.3 63.2
11 59.3 100.3 142.7 62.9
12 46.3 92.4 138.9 56.8
2008.1 46.7 92.1 141.1 51.7
2 65.4 83.3 140.0 49.2
3 120.1 106.3 138.6 48.4
4 183.8 125.0 142.3 49.1
5 166.5 108.0 141.0 49.8
6 136.3 108.9 139.4 43.3
7 111.8 106.8 133.6 39.7
8 66.2 77.8 127.0 40.6
9 48.2 72.8 117.8 40.6
10 (5.9) 78.6 97.6 41.0
11 (51.0) 59.3 86.8 39.2
12 (126.3) 60.8 92.8 38.5
부 록 57
가격 거래 공급 미분양 종합지수
99.1 12.6 27.7 29.3 8.8 78.4
2 11.6 22.9 27.6 9.2 71.3
3 4.4 31.2 26.8 9.7 72.1
4 3.5 29.9 26.8 10.2 70.4
5 2.6 30.2 27.1 10.7 70.5
6 0.0 30.8 27.0 11.0 68.8
7 2.6 29.7 26.8 11.2 70.3
8 7.9 27.9 28.1 11.1 75.0
9 11.4 27.1 29.6 11.6 79.7
10 7.0 29.7 33.3 12.3 82.2
11 (2.6) 32.0 35.6 12.3 77.3
12 (4.3) 35.9 40.9 12.1 84.6
2000.1 2.6 25.2 41.1 13.0 81.8
2 6.1 24.2 41.7 13.4 85.3
3 6.9 30.9 43.6 13.3 94.8
4 4.3 32.4 45.4 13.8 95.9
5 (0.9) 30.4 45.4 13.7 88.6
6 (3.4) 31.6 45.9 13.7 87.7
7 0.0 23.1 48.6 13.5 85.2
8 1.7 25.5 49.9 14.0 91.2
9 3.4 24.2 50.6 14.1 92.3
10 2.6 32.2 49.8 14.7 99.4
11 (2.6) 32.2 47.3 14.7 91.6
12 (7.7) 26.8 43.8 14.7 77.5
2001.1 (6.0) 18.3 43.7 15.0 70.9
2 2.6 25.0 43.4 15.3 86.2
3 7.8 36.1 42.0 16.1 102.1
4 10.3 41.1 41.2 16.9 109.6
5 11.1 43.5 42.5 17.9 115.0
6 12.7 42.1 44.6 19.0 118.4
7 16.8 38.8 44.6 20.7 120.9
8 25.8 40.8 45.1 22.3 134.0
9 28.7 41.7 46.9 23.1 140.4
10 17.0 42.5 47.9 23.3 130.7
11 7.2 44.3 51.5 26.1 129.0
12 9.5 49.0 53.6 27.2 139.3
2002.1 27.6 45.1 56.0 29.7 158.3
2 41.9 47.1 58.1 36.8 183.9
3 39.4 58.2 61.9 42.0 201.5
<부록 2> 주택시장진단지수(NBER법) 추이
4 26.7 58.9 64.5 49.5 199.7
5 13.1 56.1 66.4 45.8 181.3
6 8.7 45.0 66.5 39.2 159.4
7 11.5 45.5 66.8 35.0 158.8
8 22.1 49.9 66.6 36.5 175.1
9 33.7 53.5 65.5 36.9 189.6
10 23.6 62.0 66.2 40.4 192.2
11 4.8 50.9 66.1 38.2 160.0
12 2.0 44.7 67.4 34.4 148.6
2003.1 (0.7) 36.9 66.5 32.3 135.1
2 4.1 39.0 65.7 35.4 144.2
3 10.1 47.7 64.1 36.4 158.4
4 13.4 56.9 61.1 34.4 165.8
5 20.6 59.5 58.9 38.0 177.0
6 19.1 58.3 68.4 34.8 180.6
7 7.7 47.1 67.9 33.5 156.2
8 4.5 42.6 66.1 28.4 141.5
9 9.5 44.5 63.7 35.0 152.7
10 15.0 57.9 61.2 35.7 169.7
11 (2.9) 50.5 58.3 30.6 136.5
12 (9.6) 46.9 59.2 22.4 118.9
2004.1 (10.1) 26.3 57.2 20.9 94.3
2 1.7 34.2 56.8 21.3 114.0
3 3.3 42.2 54.6 21.4 121.5
4 3.0 41.0 53.7 21.7 119.3
5 (0.1) 37.1 53.1 19.0 109.1
6 (2.2) 40.0 42.2 17.1 97.2
7 (4.3) 32.2 41.1 17.3 86.4
8 (5.4) 32.3 42.0 17.0 85.9
9 (5.0) 28.3 42.8 16.3 82.4
10 (3.7) 34.8 44.6 14.6 90.2
11 (5.6) 36.5 45.2 13.3 89.4
12 (7.0) 40.0 46.9 12.4 92.3
2005.1 (5.6) 33.6 48.5 12.7 89.1
2 2.6 30.8 47.7 13.3 94.4
3 5.7 45.4 48.4 14.7 114.1
4 7.8 48.4 49.0 15.2 120.4
5 9.1 46.0 51.6 16.5 123.2
6 11.0 45.7 50.7 17.0 124.4
7 13.4 41.5 49.8 16.5 121.2
8 9.7 42.1 48.8 17.7 118.3
9 4.9 36.5 48.1 17.1 106.6
부 록 59
11 (0.3) 37.7 44.4 16.8 98.7
12 1.6 57.8 46.9 15.0 121.2
2006.1 4.3 29.0 46.9 15.4 95.6
2 6.4 37.9 48.1 16.4 108.7
3 8.9 48.6 47.4 16.1 121.1
4 12.4 42.0 47.6 15.5 117.5
5 15.5 43.4 44.8 14.7 118.4
6 12.2 38.7 45.8 13.3 110.1
7 5.6 33.1 48.9 12.2 99.9
8 3.7 30.6 49.2 12.1 95.6
9 5.9 48.6 50.9 11.7 117.1
10 14.9 52.9 50.7 12.3 130.7
11 36.2 73.7 51.1 12.3 173.3
12 40.5 61.5 47.5 11.6 161.0
2007.1 22.3 42.8 45.6 11.4 122.1
2 10.1 31.3 44.5 11.7 97.5
3 4.4 35.2 44.0 11.7 95.4
4 2.5 35.2 43.2 11.7 92.7
5 1.3 34.5 43.5 10.9 90.3
6 1.4 30.8 42.3 9.6 84.1
7 3.2 32.8 41.2 9.5 86.7
8 3.7 31.6 43.7 9.4 88.3
9 3.7 27.0 45.1 8.7 84.5
10 4.2 39.0 53.1 8.5 104.9
11 4.3 39.0 57.7 8.5 109.4
12 3.4 35.9 56.2 7.6 103.1
2008.1 3.4 35.8 57.1 7.0 103.2
2 4.7 32.4 56.6 6.6 100.4
3 8.7 41.3 56.0 6.5 112.6
4 13.3 48.6 57.5 6.6 126.1
5 12.1 42.0 57.0 6.7 117.7
6 9.9 42.3 56.4 5.8 114.4
7 8.1 41.5 54.0 5.3 109.0
8 4.8 30.2 51.4 5.5 91.8
9 3.5 28.3 47.6 5.5 84.9
10 (0.4) 30.5 39.4 5.5 75.1
11 (3.7) 23.0 35.1 5.3 59.7
12 (9.2) 23.6 37.5 5.2 57.2
가격 거래 공급 미분양 종합지수
99.1 37.5 18.6 18.1 17.9 92.1
2 34.7 15.3 17.1 18.7 85.8
3 13.2 20.9 16.6 19.7 70.4
4 10.5 20.0 16.6 20.6 67.8
5 7.9 20.2 16.8 21.7 66.6
6 0.0 20.6 16.7 22.4 59.7
7 7.9 19.9 16.6 22.7 67.0
8 23.5 18.7 17.4 22.6 82.2
9 33.8 18.1 18.3 23.7 94.0
10 20.7 19.9 20.6 25.0 86.2
11 (7.7) 21.4 22.0 25.0 60.7
12 (12.9) 24.0 25.3 24.6 61.1
2000.1 7.8 16.8 25.4 26.4 76.4
2 18.1 16.2 25.8 27.2 87.3
3 20.6 20.7 27.0 27.0 95.3
4 12.8 21.7 28.1 28.1 90.7
5 (2.6) 20.3 28.1 27.8 73.7
6 (10.2) 21.2 28.4 27.8 67.1
7 0.0 15.5 30.1 27.5 73.1
8 5.1 17.1 30.9 28.5 81.6
9 10.3 16.2 31.3 28.6 86.4
10 7.7 21.6 30.9 30.0 90.0
11 (7.7) 21.5 29.3 29.9 73.1
12 (23.0) 17.9 27.1 29.8 51.8
2001.1 (17.9) 12.2 27.1 30.5 51.8
2 7.7 16.7 26.9 31.1 82.4
3 23.2 24.2 26.0 32.8 106.1
4 30.8 27.5 25.5 34.4 118.2
5 33.1 29.1 26.3 36.3 124.8
6 37.9 28.2 27.6 38.6 132.3
7 50.2 26.0 27.6 42.0 145.8
8 76.9 27.3 27.9 45.4 177.5
9 85.7 27.9 29.1 46.9 189.5
10 50.7 28.5 29.7 47.3 156.1
11 21.4 29.6 31.9 53.1 136.0
12 28.4 32.8 33.2 55.4 149.7
2002.1 82.2 30.2 34.7 60.3 207.4
2 125.0 31.5 36.0 74.7 267.2
<부록 3> 주택시장진단지수(PCA) 추이
62
4 79.7 39.4 40.0 100.7 259.8
5 39.1 37.5 41.1 93.0 210.7
6 25.8 30.1 41.2 79.7 176.8
7 34.2 30.5 41.4 71.2 177.2
8 65.8 33.4 41.3 74.1 214.6
9 100.5 35.8 40.6 75.0 251.8
10 70.4 41.5 41.0 82.1 234.9
11 14.2 34.1 40.9 77.6 166.8
12 6.1 29.9 41.7 70.0 147.7
2003.1 (2.0) 24.7 41.2 65.7 129.6
2 12.1 26.1 40.7 71.9 150.8
3 30.1 31.9 39.7 74.0 175.8
4 40.0 38.1 37.8 69.9 185.8
5 61.4 39.8 36.5 77.3 214.9
6 56.9 39.1 42.3 70.7 209.0
7 22.9 31.5 42.0 68.1 164.5
8 13.4 28.5 40.9 57.8 140.6
9 28.4 29.8 39.4 71.1 168.7
10 44.7 38.8 37.9 72.5 193.8
11 (8.6) 33.8 36.1 62.2 123.4
12 (28.7) 31.4 36.6 45.6 84.9
2004.1 (30.0) 17.6 35.4 42.4 65.5
2 4.9 22.9 35.1 43.4 106.3
3 9.9 28.3 33.8 43.5 115.5
4 9.0 27.4 33.2 44.1 113.7
5 (0.4) 24.8 32.9 38.6 95.9
6 (6.6) 26.8 26.1 34.8 81.1
7 (12.7) 21.5 25.5 35.2 69.5
8 (16.1) 21.6 26.0 34.5 66.0
9 (14.8) 18.9 26.5 33.1 63.8
10 (11.0) 23.3 27.6 29.6 69.5
11 (16.6) 24.4 28.0 27.0 62.8
12 (20.8) 26.8 29.0 25.2 60.2
2005.1 (16.8) 22.5 30.0 25.9 61.6
2 7.8 20.6 29.5 27.0 84.9
3 17.0 30.4 29.9 29.9 107.2
4 23.3 32.4 30.4 30.9 116.9
5 27.1 30.8 32.0 33.5 123.4
6 32.9 30.6 31.4 34.5 129.4
7 39.9 27.8 30.9 33.6 132.1
8 28.9 28.2 30.2 35.9 123.3
9 14.6 24.4 29.8 34.8 103.6
10 (0.8) 25.0 28.3 35.3 87.8
11 (0.9) 25.2 27.5 34.2 86.0
12 4.7 38.7 29.0 30.5 102.9
2006.1 12.7 19.4 29.0 31.2 92.4
2 19.0 25.3 29.8 33.4 107.6
3 26.6 32.6 29.4 32.7 121.2
4 37.0 28.1 29.5 31.5 126.1
5 46.2 29.0 27.7 29.8 132.9
6 36.4 25.9 28.4 27.1 117.8
7 16.8 22.2 30.3 24.8 94.1
8 11.1 20.5 30.5 24.6 86.6
9 17.6 32.5 31.5 23.9 105.5
10 44.4 35.4 31.4 25.0 136.1
11 108.0 49.3 31.6 25.1 214.0
12 120.6 41.2 29.4 23.7 214.8
2007.1 66.5 28.7 28.2 23.1 146.4
2 30.0 20.9 27.5 23.7 102.2
3 13.3 23.6 27.3 23.9 87.9
4 7.6 23.6 26.8 23.8 81.7
5 4.0 23.1 27.0 22.2 76.3
6 4.1 20.6 26.2 19.5 70.4
7 9.6 22.0 25.5 19.2 76.3
8 10.9 21.1 27.1 19.0 78.1
9 11.0 18.1 27.9 17.8 74.7
10 12.6 26.1 32.9 17.3 88.9
11 12.8 26.1 35.7 17.2 91.8
12 10.0 24.0 34.8 15.5 84.3
2008.1 10.1 24.0 35.3 14.1 83.5
2 14.1 21.7 35.0 13.5 84.3
3 26.0 27.7 34.7 13.2 101.5
4 39.7 32.5 35.6 13.4 121.3
5 36.0 28.1 35.3 13.6 113.0
6 29.4 28.3 34.9 11.9 104.5
7 24.1 27.8 33.5 10.9 96.2
8 14.3 20.2 31.8 11.1 77.4
9 10.4 18.9 29.5 11.1 70.0
10 (1.3) 20.4 24.4 11.2 54.8
11 (11.0) 15.4 21.7 10.7 36.9
12 (27.3) 15.8 23.2 10.5 22.3
부 록 65 Vector Autoregression Estimates
Sample (adjusted): 1999M06 2008M12 Included observations: 115 after adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
D(CD) DLOG(PUST) DLOG(LF)
D(CD(-1)) 0.683152 -0.144429 -0.005650
(0.10274) (0.05915) (0.00342) [ 6.64929] [-2.44164] [-1.65170]
D(CD(-2)) -0.475713 0.019969 0.008140
(0.12019) (0.06920) (0.00400) [-3.95794] [ 0.28856] [ 2.03407]
D(CD(-3)) 0.248155 0.067669 -0.004185
(0.12408) (0.07144) (0.00413) [ 1.99996] [ 0.94723] [-1.01297]
D(CD(-4)) -0.157458 -0.087527 0.004694
(0.10536) (0.06066) (0.00351) [-1.49452] [-1.44294] [ 1.33813]
DLOG(PUST(-1)) 0.221229 0.264123 0.016294
(0.17135) (0.09865) (0.00570) [ 1.29109] [ 2.67724] [ 2.85607]
DLOG(PUST(-2)) 0.169403 -0.009281 0.005289
(0.17989) (0.10357) (0.00599) [ 0.94170] [-0.08961] [ 0.88314]
DLOG(PUST(-3)) -0.071578 -0.188505 -0.002450
(0.17706) (0.10194) (0.00590) [-0.40425] [-1.84910] [-0.41567]
DLOG(PUST(-4)) 0.014858 -0.090986 0.006559
(0.17196) (0.09901) (0.00573) [ 0.08640] [-0.91898] [ 1.14563]
DLOG(LF(-1)) -1.470996 -0.824070 -0.236343
<부록 4> VAR 모형 추정 결과