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국토해양부(2011).『제4차 공항개발 중장기 종합계획(2011-2015)』.

문화체육관광부(2005).『2004년 한국관광위성계정』.

문화체육관광부(2006).『관광수요예측 가이드 라인 설정 연구』.

문화체육관광부(2010).『2008년 기준 한국관광위성계정』.

제주발전연구원(2009).섬지역의 산업․경제 비교:제주특별자치도와 오키나와현 을 중심으로.

제주특별자치도(2002).『제주국제자유도시종합계획(2002-2011)』.

제주특별자치도(2009).『제주지역 관광수요 공급분석 및 관광산업 통계개선방 안 연구』.

제주특별자치도(2012).『제주공항개발구상 연구』.

한국관광공사(2002).『중국관광객 유치전략』.

한국관광공사(2009).『2008년 외래관광객 실태조사 국가별보고서(중국)』.

한국관광공사(2011).『2010년 외래관광객 실태조사 국가별보고서(중국)』.

한국관광공사(2012).『2011년 외래관광객 실태조사 국가별보고서(중국)』.

한국은행 통계국(2005).『우리나라의 실측 지역산업연관표 작성과 활용』.

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한국은행(2009).2005년 지역산업연관표.

각 년도 제주도 통계년보.

한국관광공사 홈페이지 관광통계.

부 록 표

<2015년 입도중국인 관광객 수요예측에 따른 다른 지역 산업별 생산유발효과>

<2020년 입도중국인 관광객 수요예측에 따른 지역 내 산업별 생산유발효과>

<2020년 입도중국인 관광객 수요예측에 따른 다른 지역 산업별 생산유발효과>

<2015년 입도중국인 수요예측에 따른 지역 내 산업별 부가가치유발효과>

<2015년 입도중국인 수요예측에 따른 다른 지역 산업별 부가가치유발효과>

<2020년 입도중국인 수요예측에 따른 지역 내 산업별 부가가치유발효과>

<2020년 입도중국인 수요예측에 따른 다른 지역 산업별 부가가치 유발효과>

<2015년 입도중국인 관광객 수요예측에 따른 지역 내 산업별 취업유발효과>

<2015년 입도중국인 관광객 수요예측에 따른 다른 지역 산업별 취업유발효과>

<2020년 입도중국인 관광객 수요예측에 따른 지역 내 산업별 취업유발효과>

<2020년 입도중국인 관광객 수요예측에 따른 다른 지역 산업별 취업유발효과>

ABSTRACT

A St udyonEs t i mat i onofRe gi onalEc onomi c Ef f e c t sf orChi ne s eTour i s t st oJ e j u,Kor e a

Dae -HoKi m

De pa r t me ntofTour i s m Ma na ge me nt

TheGr a dua t eSc hoolofJ e j uNa t i ona lUni ve r s i t y

Theaim ofthisstudyistopredictthedemandoftheincreasingnumberof Chinese tourists to identify the regionaleconomic impacts.The increase in the numberofChinese tourists willbring abouta significantchangein the tourism ofJejuIsland,whichpreviouslymostlyconsistedofdomesticvisitors. Thisislikely to lead to positivechangesin theeconomy,aswellassocial and culturalproblems.The prediction ofthe demand ofChinese tourists at this pointincludes a response to the tourism industry,as wellas to the changingparadigm.

The numberofChinese visitors visiting Jeju have increased significantly from year 2008, but the predictions have not reflected this. Inaccurate prediction ofthe demand in the tourism industry can increase the risk of excessiveinvestment,whereasunderestimationcanleadtolackofpreparation thatcan cause touristdissatisfaction. In the regionalcommunity,this can hinderlocalpreparationtomaximizethespendingofthetourists.

In this study,the data from 1994 and 2011 on the number of Chinese touriststhatenteredtheislandwereusedtoestimatethedemandofChinese touristsusingaquantitativetimeseriesmodel.Theselectionofthemodelfor prediction wasbased on preceding studiesand to meetthetrend ofChinese visitors entering Jeju Island. The measurement of the accuracy of the

prediction was based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE)ratio thatuses the actualmeasurements ofthe past,and the yearly trend ofthe numberofChinesevisitorswasgraphed and fourmodelsthatrepresentthe trendthebestwereselected.

Theexponentialmodelthatpredictedthelargestnumber,predicted2,710,000 visitors in 2015,and 13,480,000 visitors in 2020.The ARIMA model,which usedmonthly dataandhadthesmallestpredictednumber,predicted2,090,000 visitorsin 2015,and 4,360,000 visitorsin 2020.The exponentialmodeltends to increase significantly furtheron,and has a risk ofover-estimation when extrapolatingfurther.Basedonalltheselectedmodels,acommonfindingwas thatmorethan 2 million Chinesevisitorsareexpected to visitJeju in 2015.

Therecentincreasein thenumberofChinesevisitorsinJejuwas67% since 2008, but the average increase after 2012 in the model that predicted 13,480,000visitorsin2020was38%.

Thepredicted numberofvisitorsin thedemand forecasting modelselected to estimate the localeconomy impactofChinese visitors was divided into individualtourism andgrouptourism,andthemean spending perpersonwas calculated to estimatethetotalspending ofChinesevisitors.In thisprocess, thespending criteriaweredivided in accordancetothe168industriesin the interregionalInput-Outputtablereported by theKorean Bank in 2009.Using the size expenditure of the Chinese visitors according to each industry suggested by the Korea bank in the inter-regionalInput-Outputtable,the effect on production inducement,the added value induction effect and the employment inducement effects were estimated.As a result,the ARIMA model,which had thelowestprediction outofthefourmodels,predicted the localeffectonproductioninducementtobe4trillion364millionWonin2015, and 9trillion 814million Won in 2020.Considering thefactthatthesizeof GRDP in Jeju region in 2011was10trillion 400million Won,theproduction inducementeffectin 2015and2020accountfor41.9% and87.3% respectively.

ThishighlightsthesignificantlocaleconomyimpactofChinesevisitorsbased onthesizeoftheirexpenditure.

The estimation ofthe regionalemploymentinducementeffectwas 87,571 peoplein2015,and 182,231peoplein2020.Based on thenumberofemployees intheregionin2011of291,000,theseaccountfor30% and62% respectively.

TheeffectofChinesevisitorsinJejuregionissignificant,asshownabove. Basedon thesefindings,thereisaneedforcontinuedtargetedmarketing on Chinese visitors to attractthem.There is also a need forexpansion ofthe tourism infrastructureandstrategiestoexpandthesizeoftheirexpenditure.

Thepredictionsofthisstudy arebasedontheassumptionthattheChinese tourism policiesandtheinternationalrelationscontinueastheyhavebeen.Its limitation is that the various changes in the environment could not be predicted.AnotherlimitationisthattheinterregionalInput-Outputtablebased ontheindustry structureof2005wasused,whichcannotreflectthechanges in the industry in 2013.However,the significance ofthis study is thatthe demandforecastwasusedtopredicttheexpendituresizeofChinesevisitors, andtoestimatethelocaleconomyimpactusingtheinterregionalInput-Output table.Thiswillprovideactualdataon theimportanceofChinesevisitorson thelocalcommunity,andtoprovideevidenceforindustrialresponsestrategies.