Global Participation & Technology Strategies

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Expert Meeting on Climate Expert Meeting on Climate Change and Sustainable Change and Sustainable Development: 2002

Development: 2002

Global Participation &

Technology Strategies Global Participation &

Global Participation &

Technology Strategies Technology Strategies

The Joint Global Change The Joint Global Change Research Institute Research Institute

Jae Edmonds

Expert Meeting on Climate Change and Sustainable Development: 2002

Seoul, Korea

19-20 November 2002

Jae Edmonds Jae Edmonds

Expert Meeting on Climate Change and Expert Meeting on Climate Change and

Sustainable Development: 2002 Sustainable Development: 2002

Seoul, Korea Seoul, Korea

19-20 November 2002

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The Joint Global Change 2 The Joint Global Change Research Institute Research Institute

Expert Meeting on Expert Meeting on Climate Change Climate Change

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& Sustainable Development:

Development:

20022002

Thanks to Thanks to

The Korea Energy Economics Institute (KEEI) The Korea Energy Economics Institute (KEEI)

and the Institute for Global Environmental and the Institute for Global Environmental

Strategies (IGES, Japan) Strategies (IGES, Japan)

Thanks also to the U.S. DOE, Office of Science, Integrated Assessment Program, and to the EPRI Integrated Assessment Program for long-term research

support.

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Expert Meeting on Expert Meeting on Climate Change Climate Change

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Examples of Technology Systems That Could Make A Difference

Carbon Capture & Disposal Hydrogen & Transportation Biotechnology

Technology and Climate Technology and Climate

Background

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Expert Meeting on Expert Meeting on Climate Change Climate Change

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20022002

Background Background

Background

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Expert Meeting on Expert Meeting on Climate Change Climate Change

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1992

1992 United Nations Framework United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Convention on Climate Change

GOAL—”…stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous

anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” (Article 2)

background

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Expert Meeting on Expert Meeting on Climate Change Climate Change

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Four types of policy responses Four types of policy responses

z Emissions mitigation z Adaptation

z Improvement in scientific understanding

z Technology development

background

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Expert Meeting on Expert Meeting on Climate Change Climate Change

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20022002

background

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Expert Meeting on Expert Meeting on Climate Change Climate Change

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solar nuclear

efficient fossil electric advanced transportation end use efficiency

conventional biomass where more advanced versions of current technologies will take us

path we need to be on to stabilize atmospheric co

₂

where today’s technology will take us

population and economic population and economic

growth will generate increased growth will generate increased demands for energy services demands for energy services

Stabilization pathway

Reference case technology assumptions Reference case technology assumptions

background

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Expert Meeting on Expert Meeting on Climate Change Climate Change

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20022002

Hoffert et al., 2002.

Science, provided a menu of technology opportunities to

stabilize the

concentration of CO 2 . Hoffert

Hoffert et al., 2002. et al., 2002.

Science,

Science, provided a provided a menu of technology menu of technology

opportunities to opportunities to

stabilize the stabilize the

concentration of CO

concentration of CO 2 2 . .

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Expert Meeting on Expert Meeting on Climate Change Climate Change

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Technology Technology

Technology

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7KH-RLQW*OREDO&KDQJH 11 7KH-RLQW*OREDO&KDQJH 5HVHDUFK,QVWLWXWH 5HVHDUFK,QVWLWXWH

Expert Meeting on Expert Meeting on Climate Change Climate Change

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Examples of Advanced Technologies That Could Make A Difference

Carbon Capture & Disposal (CC&D)

Hydrogen & Transportation Biotechnology

Today

Today ’ ’ s Discussion s Discussion

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Expert Meeting on Expert Meeting on Climate Change Climate Change

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20022002

www.ieagreen.org.uk/nov51.htm

AES Warrior Run, Cumberland, USA

www.ieagreen.org.uk/nov51.htm

Sleipner, North Sea

Carbon capture already exists.

cc&d

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Expert Meeting on Expert Meeting on Climate Change Climate Change

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… … where to put 300 Billion Tons of Carbon? where to put 300 Billion Tons of Carbon?

0 50 10 0 150 2 0 0 2 50 3 0 0 3 50

19 9 0 2 0 0 5 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 5 2 0 50 2 0 6 5 2 0 8 0 2 0 9 5

H2 Prod Synfuel Elec

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 H2 Prod

Synfuel Elec

MiniCAM B2 550 MiniCAM B2 AT 550

Cumulative Carbon Capture Cumulative Carbon Capture

cc&d

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Geologic Disposal

1 1

2 2 3 3

1. Deep saline formations 1. Deep saline formations 2. Oil & gas reservoirs

2. Oil & gas reservoirs 3. Unmined coal beds 3. Unmined coal beds

(IEA Greenhouse R&D Programme, 2001)

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Expert Meeting on Expert Meeting on Climate Change Climate Change

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Geologic Disposal

There are other reservoirs that need to be explored…

Geologic Disposal Geologic Disposal

There are other reservoirs that need to be explored There are other reservoirs that need to be explored … …

Ex situ

Mineralization

'HHS%DVDOW)ORZV

2FHDQ'LVSRVDO

cc&d

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Expert Meeting on Expert Meeting on Climate Change Climate Change

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1,391 to 27,000 Deep Ocean

>1,000 Basalt Formations

Source: Herzog et al. (1997), Freund and Ormerod (1997), PNNL (2001).

>20 Unminable Coal

41 to 191 Depleted Oil Reservoirs

136 to 300 Depleted Gas Reservoirs

87 to 2,727 Deep Saline Reservoirs

Range (PgC) Carbon Storage Reservoir

Global Carbon Storage Reservoirs Global Carbon Storage Reservoirs

cc&d

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Expert Meeting on Expert Meeting on Climate Change Climate Change

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Carbon is captured and stored locally.

cc&d

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Expert Meeting on Expert Meeting on Climate Change Climate Change

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MiniCA M B2 550

MiniCAM B2 AT 550

Aggregate Losses From 1% Annual Release Rate Aggregate Losses From 1% Annual Release Rate

0 .0 0 .5 1.0 1.5 2 .0 2 .5 3 .0

19 9 0 2 0 0 5 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 5 2 0 50 2 0 6 5 2 0 8 0 2 0 9 5

Loss

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 Loss

Year 2100 Emissions (PgC/Year)

12.5 10.0

6.8 3.6

0

WRE 750 WRE 650

WRE 550 WRE 450

WRE 350

cc&d

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Expert Meeting on Expert Meeting on Climate Change Climate Change

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z Macro-scale Losses—1% is a BIG number!

z Local Losses—A Million Tonnes of CO 2 matters if its at your house.

z Monitoring & Verification Loom Large.

z General dispersion in oceans probably has high loss rates.

Key Issues Key Issues

cc&d

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Expert Meeting on Expert Meeting on Climate Change Climate Change

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Examples of Advanced Technologies That Could Make A Difference

Carbon Capture & Disposal

Hydrogen & Transportation (H2)

Biotechnology

Today

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Expert Meeting on Expert Meeting on Climate Change Climate Change

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Transport Emissions Are All About Technology Transport Emissions Are All About Technology

z 1990 Fuel is 9% of total passenger transport cost.

z 2100 Fuel is 4% of total passenger

transport cost with $200/ton carbon value.

h2

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Expert Meeting on Expert Meeting on Climate Change Climate Change

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Fuel Cells Fuel Cells Fuel Cells

…for the H 2 economy.

Fuel Input

CH

₄

Coal

Oil Biomass Electricity

Direct Bioconversion

Fuel Input Fuel Input

CH CH

₄₄

Coal Coal Oil Oil Biomass Biomass Electricity Electricity

Direct Direct

Bioconversion Bioconversion

H 2 H H 2 2

Electricity, Heat Out &

H

₂

O Electricity, Electricity, Heat Out &

Heat Out &

H H

₂₂

O O CO

²

CO CO

²²

h2

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Expert Meeting on Expert Meeting on Climate Change Climate Change

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MiniCAM B2 550 Advanced Technology MiniCAM B2

Advanced Technology

H H

₂₂

Use Use — — Exajoules/year Exajoules/year

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/yr

GenerationH2Fcell TransportH2 IndustriesH2 BuildingsH2

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/yr

Hydrogen could provide stationary heat and Hydrogen could provide stationary heat and

power, then penetrates the transportation sector.

h2

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Expert Meeting on Expert Meeting on Climate Change Climate Change

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MiniCAM B2 550 Advanced Technology MiniCAM B2

Advanced Technology

H H

₂₂

Use Use — — Exajoules/year Exajoules/year

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/yr

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/yr

Even with rapid technology improvement, Even with rapid technology improvement,

significant market penetration is decades in the significant market penetration is decades in the

future.

h2

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Expert Meeting on Expert Meeting on Climate Change Climate Change

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Development:

20022002

Examples of Advanced Technologies That Could Make A Difference

Carbon Capture & Disposal Hydrogen & Transportation

Biotechnology

Today

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Expert Meeting on Expert Meeting on Climate Change Climate Change

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20022002

Biotechnology Biotechnology Biotechnology

…modern commercial

biomass energy

e.g. Switchgrass

www.scientecmatrix.com/.../ 02E6A08F3A385394C1256B5A0028FFFF

Biorefining

ens.lycos.com/ens/aug2001/ 2001L-08-21-01.html

Bio Bio

Fuels Gas Solids

…bio-hydrogen

biotech

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Expert Meeting on Expert Meeting on Climate Change Climate Change

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Primary Energy (EJ/year)

Stabilization implies significant growth in Stabilization implies significant growth in

modern commercial biomass.

MiniCAM B2 1.5% Ag Productivity

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Exajoules per Year

Wind Solar Nuclear Hydro Biomass Coal Gas Oil

MiniCAM B2 Reference MiniCAM B2 550 Stabilization

MiniCAM B2 550 1.5% Ag Productivity Carbon Capture & Disposal

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Exajoules per Year

Wind Solar Nuclear Hydro Biomass Coal Gas Oil

biotech

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Expert Meeting on Expert Meeting on Climate Change Climate Change

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20022002

Stabilization could dramatically change land use.

MiniCAM B2 1.5% Ag Productivity

Crops

Pasture

Forest

BioLand Unmgd

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

MiniCAM B2 Reference MiniCAM B2 550 Stabilization

MiniCAM B2 550 1.5% Ag Productivity Carbon Capture & Disposal

Crops

Pasture

Forest

BioLand

Unmgd

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

biotech

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Expert Meeting on Expert Meeting on Climate Change Climate Change

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20022002

Increasing Increasing agricultural agricultural productivity productivity dramatically dramatically reduces reduces land-use land-use emissions.

emissions.

-4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Millions of tons of carbon per year

MiniCAM B2 550 0.0% Ag Productivity CC&D MiniCAM B2 550 0.5% Ag Productivity CC&D MiniCAM B2 550 1.5% Ag Productivity CC&D

biotech

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Technology & Policy Technology & Policy

Technology & Policy

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Expert Meeting on Expert Meeting on Climate Change Climate Change

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Technology alone may not stabilize Technology alone may not stabilize CO CO 2 2 concentrations. concentrations.

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

TgC pe r Y e a r

MiniCAM B2 MiniCAM B2 AT MiniCAM B2 550 MiniCAM B2 AT 550

technology & policy

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Expert Meeting on Expert Meeting on Climate Change Climate Change

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However, technology can dramatically lower However, technology can dramatically lower

the cost of stabilizing CO

the cost of stabilizing CO 2 2 concentrations. concentrations.

technology & policy

Carbon value (1990$/tonC) Carbon value (1990$/tonC)

$0

$25

$50

$75

$100

$125

$150

$175

$200

$225

$250

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

1990 US$ per Tonne C

Reference B2 Technology

550 ppmv Stabilization

Advanced B2 Technology

550 ppmv Stabilization

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Expert Meeting on Expert Meeting on Climate Change Climate Change

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z Technology Performance Is Critical

The development and deployment of cost-effective advanced energy technologies could cut costs of stabilizing CO

₂

concentrations by

more than half.

z While advanced technology development

holds great promise, these technologies are not yet significant components of the global energy system.

z Technology Alone May or May NOT Stabilize CO 2 Concentrations

Emissions may rise with enhanced technology. To stabilize CO

₂

concentrations, cumulative emissions must be limited.

Final Thoughts