International Expert Meeting on Climate Change and Sustainable Development November 19-20, 2002 Seoul, Korea
Adaptation to climate change- frontrunner in strengthening local
capacity toward
sustainable development
Shuzo NISHIOKA Shuzo NISHIOKA
National Institute for Environmental Studies(NIES), Japan National Institute for Environmental Studies(NIES), Japan
Institute for Global Environmental
Institute for Global Environmental StrategesStrateges(IGES(IGES
Why adaptation?
-its scientific background
Why adaptation?
-its scientific background
Why adaptation?
-its scientific background
Simulated water volume transport change of the Atlantic conveyor belt
Velocity
relative to 1961-90
Large differences among models
Ocean simulation is another challenge
Why adaptation?
-its scientific background
Policy decisions by UNFCCC/WSSD
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Basic characteristics of adaptation to be considered in establishing strategy
Our next challenge?
Decisions are made under scientific and societal uncertainty:
Decisions are made under scientific and societal uncertainty:
The object is the local environment as a whole, where human and nature coexist and consist vernacular identity to be
sustained:
Adaptation relates to global change or multiple pressure issues:
–
…
Adaptation is response to local impacts caused by global scale phenomena:
…
Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) for Climate Change (Integration time period: Very long; several hundred years)
× ×
× ×
× ×
Multi-model ensemble annual mean change of precipitation
Precipitation change is more difficult to estimate
Water run-off estimation:
large difference between models
Extreme events:
difficult to reproduce
More high resolutional simulation needed
Wide scope insight needed in terms of exposure unit and associated
stakeholders: A ctors are so diversified
’
Wide scope insight needed in terms of exposure unit and associated
stakeholders: Actors are so diversified
…
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Long-lived nature of impacts and adaptation:
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Adaptation must be economically
efficient, contribute to the advancement of social and environmental objectives:
Key component:
Science and Technology
Key component:
Investment Intervention
Key component:
Capacity Building
