Chapter 5 Chapter 5
2. Reduction Potentials of Green Remodeling
KGND's green remodeling project aims to preemptively promote zero energy in public sector buildings to improve energy efficiency in private buildings. As public buildings are being remodeled first, related government departments such as MOLIT, MOIS, ME, MOTIE, and MCST are pursuing these tasks. Among them, MOLIT-led businesses are expected to account for the largest share. Therefore, we calculated the GHG reduction potential based on the ministry's detailed tasks.
The method of estimating the reduction potential for each project is as follows. First, we evaluated the figure by 2025 using the government-supported budget, project volume, and national target.
Next, we calculated baseline GHG emissions by collecting parameters for building energy use or GHG emissions. Finally, the published green
Classification 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 1 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 4 2 0 2 5
Generation Generation
(GWh)
n ew 2 3 5 2 8 9 2 8 4 2 9 1 2 9 9 3 0 6
cumulative 2 3 5 5 2 4 8 0 8 1， 0 9 9 1， 3 9 7 1， 7 0 4
Reduction n ew 10 8 13 3 13 0 13 4 13 7 14 1
cumulative 10 8 2 4 1 3 7 1 5 0 5 6 4 2 7 8 3
Fuel Replacement
E n erg y (toe)
n ew 14 ,2 18 14 ,9 11 16 ,0 0 1 16 ,4 14 16 ,8 3 8 17 ,2 7 3 cumulative 14 ,2 18 2 9 ,12 9 4 5 ,12 9 6 1,5 4 3 7 8 ,3 8 1 9 5 ,6 5 4
Reduction n ew 3 8 4 0 4 3 4 4 4 5 4 6
cumulative 3 8 7 8 12 0 16 4 2 0 9 2 5 5
Total Reduction (1,000 tC〇2eq)
n ew 14 6 17 2 17 3 17 8 18 2 18 7
cumulative 14 6 3 18 4 9 1 6 6 9 8 5 1 1， 0 3 8
remodeling energy saving rates or GHG reduction rate performance was used to estimate the GHG reduction potential.
2.1. Green Remodeling of Old Public Rental Housing
Old public rental housing, which began to be supplied in 1989, has rapidly required facility improvement due to the decreased energy efficiency. Accordingly, MOLIT is promoting green modeling to save the energy consumption of these old housing units and improve residents' quality of life. In 2020, MOLIT carried out green modeling for 10,300 units with a budget of 36 billion KRW. In 2021, the project was carried out for 83,000 units with a budget of 364.5 billion KRW.
In 2022, the ministry plans to proceed with green remodeling for 92,000 units with a budget of 480.6 billion KRW. By 2025, the government aims to implement green remodeling for a cumulative 225,000 units (Table 5-11).
Based on the subsidy, Korea Land & Housing Corporation (LH) is responsible for more than 90% of the green remodeling projects for old public rental housing, and local governments carry out the rest.
The percentage of government funding for local government projects is 50% for Seoul and 60% for other regions. We estimated the project volume and government subsidy of LH and local governments from 2020 to 2022 by referring to LH's announcements and press releases, and interviews with LH officials (Table 5-11; LH, 2021a; LH, 2021b).
Table 5-11. Status of Old Public Rental Housing Green Remodeling Project
Note: LH = Korea Land and Housing Corporation; M KRW = million KRW. We estimated LH's project cost and scales by 2022 based on LH announcements, press releases, and interviews with officials confirmed by 2022. Local government project costs and volume were estimated assuming individual housing projects based on the subsidy ratio of local governments.
Source: Created by the authors referring to LH (2021a; 2021b)
We estimated the project volume by 2025 based on the current status of the green modeling project for old public rental housing by project entity and type. The government has set a goal of achieving 225,000 housing units by 2025. As the cumulative number reaches 185,300 units by 2022, we set Scenario 1 to accomplish the remaining 39,700 units early by 2023.
In Scenario 2, we assumed that regardless of the target for 2025, the project will continue for permanent or 50-year rental housing (15 or more years old). After finishing the support for all the permanent and 50-year rental housing units, we expected the project to maintain its scale by expanding its scope to national rental housing. In this case, the budget growth rate between 2021 and 2022 would be very high at 31.8%.
We judged that it would be impossible for this high growth rate to
Entities Types Unit 2020 2021 2022
LH
integrated housing
units M KRW 6,700 9,045 12,060
count 100 135 180
individual housing
units M KRW 5,200 507,910 702,000
count 200 28,000 27,000
purchased rental M KRW 44,800 71,200 78,000
count 10,000 11,862 13,000
improvement of old rental
facilities
M KRW - 101,000 101,000
count - 35,500 35,500
Subtotal M KRW 56,700 689,155 893,060
count 10,300 75,497 75,680
Local
Gov. individual housing
units M KRW - 33,826 57,673
count - 7,503 16,320
Total M KRW 56,700 722,981 950,733
count 10,300 83,000 92,000
continue. Therefore, we assumed that the budget growth rate would decrease by 50% every year from the growth rate between 2021 and 2022 and that the budget and the number of project targets would increase at the same rate.
Even if the government's target is achieved early, we judged it would not be appropriate to close the project when old public rental housing units remain. Accordingly, we evaluated the reduction potential based on Scenario 2. The total cost of the green remodeling project for aging public rental housing from 2023 to 2025 is about 1.52 trillion KRW. We expected the green remodeling project to be carried out for 341,000 housing units during this period.
Table 5-12. Estimated Project Scales of Old Public Rental Housing Green Remodeling
Note: LH = Korea Land and Housing Corporation; M KRW = million KRW Source: Created by the authors
Entities Types Unit Scenario 1 Scenario 2
2023 2023 2024 2025
LH
integrating housing units
M KRW 5,204 13,979 15,091 15,692
count 78 209 225 234
individual housing units
M KRW 302,928 813,714 878,460 913,409
count 11,651 31,297 33,787 35,131
purchased rental
M KRW 33,659 90,413 97,607 101,490
count 5,610 15,069 16,268 16,915
improvement of old rental
faciltiies
M KRW 43,584 117,073 126,388 131,416
count 15,319 41,149 44,424 46,191
subtotal M KRW 385,375 1,035,179 1,117,546 1,162,007
count 32,658 87,723 94,704 98,471
Local
Gov. individual
housing units M KRW 24,887 66,851 72，170 75,041
count 7,042 18,917 20,422 21,235
Total M KRW 410,262 1,102,030 1,189,716 1,237,048
count 39,700 106,641 115，126 119,706
Estimating the GHG reduction potential from the previously calculated project volume requires specific data such as the baseline energy consumption or GHG emissions and the energy savings or GHG reduction rate due to green remodeling.
In August 2020, MOLIT and the Korea Appraisal Board developed a standard emission factor to calculate the GHG emissions of domestic residential buildings (individually heated apartments) and obtained UNFCCC CDM certification (MOLIT, 2020). MOLIT suggested 18 baselines for emissions depending on climates, private areas, completion year, and heating method, using database of building energy and online information systems (Table 5–14). We used the average of the baseline emission factors for the central and southern regions, excluding Jeju. Since this baseline emission factor is set differently depending on the area dedicated to housing units, it is essential to understand the average area for each type of public rental housing in advance. According to Jang and Park (2019), the area per household of all types of public rental housing, except for long-term leases on a deposit basis and housing converted into sale after public rental, is less than 60m2. Accordingly, we used the baseline for housing units with a private area of 60 m2 in (Tables 5-14).23) Since the baseline emission factor only covers CO2 emissions, we adjusted it to include CH4 and N2O emissions by referring to 2018 household sector emissions from the National GHG Inventory (GIR, 2020).24)
23) Emission factor for existing buildings of 60 m2 or less: 0.0378 for central area, 0.0336 for southern area
— Average baseline emission factor = {(0.0378 + 0.0336)/2}
24) Applied baseline emission factor = Average baseline emission factor * Total GHG emissions from the household sector / CO2 emissions from the household sector= {(0.0378 tCO2/m2+0.0336 tC〇2/m2)/2} * (33,833,000 tC〇2eq/33,542,000 tCO2eq) = 0.0360 tCO2eq/m2
Table 5-13. Residential Area per Household by Type of Public Rental Housing
Source: Jang and Park (2019)
Table 5-14. Baseline Emissions from Existing Buildings
Source: MOLIT (2020b)
Types of Public Rental Housing Area per Household (m2)
permanent rental 3 6 .9
national rental 4 5 .2
happiness housing 2 8 .4
existing housing purchase and rental 4 7 .1
long-term rental 6 4 .6
housing converted into sale after public rental (5 or
10 years) 7 1.1
Regions Household Area Year of Completion
Existing (tC〇2/m2‧year) New (tC〇2/m2‧year)
Central
≦ 6 0 m2 0 .0 3 7 8 0 .0 3 7 8
>6 0 m2, ≦ 8 5 m2 0 .0 3 2 9 0 .0 3 14
<8 5 m2 0 .0 2 7 1 0 .0 2 7 1
Southern
≦ 6 0 m2 0 .0 3 3 6 0 .0 3 3 6
>6 0 m2, ≦ 8 5 m2 0 .0 2 9 4 0 .0 2 9 4
>8 5 m2 0 .0 2 4 3 0 .0 2 4 3
Jeju
≦ 6 0 m2 0 .0 3 4 6 0 .0 3 4 6
>6 0 m2, ≦ 8 5 m2 0 .0 2 9 2 0 .0 2 8 5
>8 5 m2 0 .0 2 6 4 0 .0 2 6 4
Next, we identified the parameters for the energy-saving and GHG reduction effect of green remodeling. The energy-saving effect of green remodeling for integrated/individual housing units and improvement of purchased rental facilities was estimated based on the business performance in 2020. According to LH (2021a), the energy-saving rate of green remodeling for integrated housing units (100) performed in 2020 was 41%, for individual housing units (200), 34%, and for purchased rental facilities (10,000) was 29%.
Table 3-12 summarizes that improvement work for old rental facilities is targeted at common areas, not individual units (roof waterproofing, elevator performance improvement, solar panel installation in the complex, etc.). Therefore, the energy-saving rate of this project is not high compared to other green remodeling projects. In the case of public rental apartments in Jinju, Gyeonnam (LH, 2018), we evaluated that the energy-saving rate due to facility improvement in the public sector rather than individual housing units was 18%.
The amount of GHG reduction of green remodeling is determined by a variety of factors, such as the composition of energy consumption of individual housing units and the content and scale of the green remodeling project. Since we cannot control all of these factors, we calculated the reduction potential using the average energy-savings rate of the green remodeling performance under the assumption that energy consumption and GHG emissions are proportional. As a result, the potential for GHG reduction from 2020 to 2025 through green remodeling for aging public rental housing was analyzed as 167,000 tCO2eq (Table 5-16).
The standard emission factor used to calculate the baseline emission was derived using the information on electricity, city gas, and heating energy consumption. Therefore, the baseline emissions and reduction
potential include both direct emissions (according to the use of fuel such as city gas) and indirect emissions (according to the use of electricity or heating energy) (Korea Appraisal Board, 2020). We estimated indirect emissions from the conversion sector of the national GHG inventory in 2018 and electricity and heat consumption from the residential sector. And the reduction potential analyzed according to the ratio of direct/indirect emissions in the residential sector was divided into direct and indirect emissions. As a result, out of 167,000 tCO2eq of potential reduction, 72,000 tCO2eq (42.9%) was direct emission reduction, and the remaining 9,000 tC〇2eq was indirect emission reduction (Table 5-15; 5-16).
Table 5-15. Direct and Indirect Emissions from the Residential Sector (2018)
(Unit: 1,000 tCO2eq, %)
Source: Created by the authors referring to KEEI (2020d) and GIR (2020)
Sector Types Emissions Share
Residential
Direct Emissions 3 3 ,8 3 3 4 2 .9
Indirect Emissions 4 5 ,10 0 5 7 .1
Total Emissions 7 8 ,9 3 3 10 0 .0
Table 5-16. Reduction Potential from Old Public Rental Housing Green Remodeling Projects
(Unit: tCO2eq)
Types Reduction 2020 2021 2022 Plan 1 Plan 2 Plan 1 Plan 2
2023 2023 2024 2025 2020-2025 2020-2025
Integrated Housing Units
Baseline 13 3 17 9 2 3 9 10 3 2 7 7 2 9 9 3 8 1 6 5 5 1,5 0 9
Before Reduction 7 8 10 6 14 1 6 1 16 4 17 7 2 2 5 3 8 6 8 9 0
Reduction 5 4 7 4 9 8 4 2 114 12 3 15 6 2 6 8 6 19
Individual Housing Units
Baseline 2 6 6 3 7 ,2 0 5 3 5 ,8 7 7 15 ,4 8 2 4 1,5 8 6 4 8 ,8 4 0 5 7 ,18 1 8 8 ,8 2 9 2 2 0 ,9 5 5 Before Reduction 17 5 2 4 ,5 5 6 2 3 ,6 7 9 10 ,2 18 2 7 ,4 4 7 3 2 ,2 3 5 3 7 ,7 3 9 5 8 ,6 2 7 14 5 ,8 3 0
Reduction 9 0 12 ,6 5 0 12 ,19 8 5 ,2 6 4 14 ,13 9 16 ,6 0 6 19 ,4 4 2 3 0 ,2 0 2 7 5 ,12 5
Purchased Rental
Baseline 16 ,9 6 1 2 0 ,119 2 2 ,0 4 9 9 ,5 15 2 5 ,5 5 8 2 7 ,5 9 1 2 8 ,6 8 9 6 8 ,6 4 3 14 0 ,9 6 6 Before Reduction 12 ,0 4 2 14 ,2 8 4 15 ,6 5 5 6 ,7 5 5 18 ,14 6 19 ,5 9 0 2 0 ,3 6 9 4 8 ,7 3 6 10 0 ,0 8 6
Reduction 4 ,9 19 5 ,8 3 4 6 ,3 9 4 2 ,7 5 9 7 ,4 12 8 ,0 0 1 8 ,3 2 0 19 ,9 0 6 4 0 ,8 8 0
Improvement of Old Rental Facilities
Baseline - 4 7 ,17 1 4 7 ,17 1 2 0 ,3 5 5 5 4 ,6 7 8 5 9 ,0 2 8 7 5 ,18 2 114 ,6 9 7 2 8 3 ,2 3 0 Before Reduction - 3 8 ,6 8 0 3 8 ,6 8 0 16 ,6 9 1 4 4 ,8 3 6 4 8 ,4 0 3 6 1,6 5 0 9 4 ,0 5 2 2 3 2 ,2 4 9
Reduction - 8 ,4 9 1 8 ,4 9 1 3 ,6 6 4 9 ,8 4 2 10 ,6 2 5 13 ,5 3 3 2 0 ,6 4 6 5 0 ,9 8 1
Total
Baseline 17 ,3 5 9 10 4 ,6 7 4 10 5 ,3 3 6 4 5 ,4 5 5 12 2 ,0 9 8 13 5 ,7 5 9 16 1,4 3 3 2 7 2 ,8 2 4 6 4 6 ,6 6 0 Before Reduction 12 ,2 9 6 7 7 ,6 2 6 7 8 ,15 5 3 3 ,7 2 5 9 0 ,5 9 2 10 0 ,4 0 4 119 ,9 8 3 2 0 1,8 0 2 4 7 9 ,0 5 5 Reduction 5 ,0 6 3 2 7 ,0 4 9 2 7 ,18 1 11,7 2 9 3 1,5 0 7 3 5 ,3 5 5 4 1,4 5 0 7 1,0 2 2 16 7 ,6 0 5 Cumulative
Reduction 5 ,0 6 3 3 2 ,112 5 9 ,2 9 3 7 1,0 2 2 9 0 ,8 0 0 12 6 ,15 5 16 7 ,6 0 5 - -
Source: Created by the authors
2.2. Green Modeling for Public Buildings
The green remodeling project for public buildings targets the underprivileged's facilities more than 10 years after approval for use, supporting green remodeling costs. The 3rd supplementary budget for 2020 allocated 227.6 billion KRW for this project. So far, the project has been carried out for 834 facilities, including national and public daycare centers, public health centers, and medical facilities that have been in operation for more than 15 years. In 2021, the same budget as the previous year was allocated, and the project was carried out for 841 facilities over 10 years old. The budget for 2022 is expected to decrease slightly to 224.5 billion KRW.
We projected the amount of green remodeling for public buildings differently from that of old public rental housing. The government has set a goal of implementing the green remodeling project for a cumulative 5,500 public buildings by 2025. We estimated the total project cost required to achieve this target and the GHG reduction potential when the target was achieved.
To estimate the project volume from 2022 to 2025, we calculated the government investment cost per project based on business performance in 2020 and 2021 (271.8 million KRW/case). We calculated the project volume for 2022 based on the budget in the same year. From 2023 to 2025, we allocated the remaining amount evenly for each year. (Table 5-17) shows the estimated amount of the green remodeling project for public buildings. According to the target from 2020 to 2025, the government is expected to invest 2.23 trillion KRW in total project costs for the green remodeling of 5,500 public buildings (including 1.49 trillion KRW from the government fund). In the case of Seoul, central administrative agencies and public institutions, 50% of the total project cost, and up to 70% in other cases. In addition, 202 out of 841 cases in
2021 were carried out in the metropolitan area. We derived the total project cost by assuming that Seoul would account for 50% of the metropolitan area and that about 12.5% of the total project volume would have occurred in Seoul.
Table 5-17. Number and Cost of Green Remodeling Projects for Public Buildings by Year
(Unit: million KRW, case)
Sources: Created by the authors referring to LH (2021a) and MOLIT (2021a)
For the energy-saving rate of public building green remodeling, we used data from the 2017 and 2018 public green remodeling support project white papers for design consulting and aging diagnosis support projects. As a result, the average primary energy consumption reduction rate of 15 cases in 2017 was about 53.2 %, and the average primary energy consumption reduction rate of 17 cases in 2018 was approximately 56.6 %. Therefore, we applied about 55 % as the average primary energy consumption reduction rate of all 32 cases to the possible reduction estimation (Table 5-18).
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2021-2025
Government expenses 227,600 227,600 224,501 271,662 271,662 271,662 1,494,687
Number of Case 834 841 826 1,000 1,000 1,000 5,500
Total Project Cost 340,000 340,000 336,752 407,493 407,493 407,493 2,239,230
Table 5-18. Energy Diagnosis Results of Public Buildings
Note: The blank cells mean that the values are not available from the original data. AI = after improvement; BI = before improvement
Source: Created by the authors referring to LH (2017; 2018).
Year of Diagnosis Elapsed Years
Regions Types Area
Primary Energy (kWh/m2)
Reduction Rate (%)
BI AI
2017
40 Chungbuk Chungju business 2,864 463 134 -71.0
24 Seoul Jongno public business 19,270 355 115 -67.6
28 Daejeon Yuseong education and
research 5,443 295 -39.4
28 Jeonnam Boseong business 495 114 -74.6
31 Jeonbuk Namwon offices 761 175 -58.3
29 Gyeonggi Siheung education and
research 17,784 433 190 -56.2
32 Gyeonggi Bucheon offices 731 433 176 -59.3
22 Daejeon Yuseong research centers 19,355 494 198 -59.8
21 Chungbuk Cheongju education and
research 9,591 431 139 -67.8
32 Chungbuk Chungju education and
research 7,367 401 105 -73.9
23 Gangwon Gangneung social welfare
centers -38.8
15 Gangwon Gangneung education and
research 630 -38.4
26 Daegu Dalseo public office
work 17,898 -26.8
27 Busan Yeonje public business 7,357 -38.7
20 Jeju Seogwipo education and
research 1,016 -27.9
2018
39 Seoul Junggu business 23,272 262 -38.9
33 Daegu Junggu education and
research 10,181 130 -50.8
34 Seoul Seocho education and
research 8,862 116 -52.1
39 Seoul Gwanak education and
research 6,987 198 -45.6
31 Chungbuk Chungju education and
research 8,732 199 -27.9
26 Gyeongnam Hadong 5,330 265 133 -49.8
39 Gyeongbuk Gumi 8,360 346 195 -43.8
30 Busan Junggu 7,860 288 156.9 -45.6
27 Busan Geumjeong 14,464 503 197 -60.8
29 Busan Donggu 400 399 78 -80.4
26 Daegu Bukgu 551 266 92 -65.3
27 Chungnam Cheongyang business 1,569 142 -62.5
47 Daegu Donggu transportation 14,031 1,656 319 -80.7
25 Jeonnam Gwangyang 6,895 476 149 -68.6
24 Chungbuk Eumseong 8,684 360 143 -60.3
30 Gyeonnam Changwon 1,697 321 139 -56.8
29 Jeonnam Jangseong 722 436 122 -72.0
Next, we calculated the baseline emissions of the project volume.
Since the number of cases estimates project volume, we assumed that one non-residential building unit would be green remodeled per project.
Then, we needed the average GHG emissions of one non-residential building unit. The primary energy consumption reduction rate secured above includes the effect of reducing electricity consumption as well as fossil fuels consumed in buildings. Therefore, we considered both direct and indirect emissions (from electricity and heat use) in the average GHG emissions of one building unit.
We estimated the direct and indirect emissions of non-residential buildings by referring to non-residential building emissions from the national GHG inventory in 2018 and electricity consumption from the commercial and public (other) sectors. In addition, in the building statistics (as of 2018), we defined buildings for commercial, educational, social, and other uses as non-residential buildings. According to the classification of establishments by use, there are also separate categories of industrial buildings. However, we excluded GHG emissions from industrial buildings as we assumed that the cases would be considered as the manufacturing and construction from the national GHG inventorys.
As a result, the emission of one non-residential building unit we derived was 45.6 t (Table 5-19).
Table 5-19. Average GHG Emissions of Non-residential Buildings (2018)
(Unit: 1,000 tCO2eq, building unit, tCO2eq/building unit) Sectors Direct/Indirect Emissions building units tCO2eq/building unit Commercial
Direct 13,619
-
Indirect 68,220
Total 81，838
Public (Others)
Direct 4,602
Indirect 16，106
Total 20,708
residentialNon-
Direct 18,221
2,249,670
8.1
Indirect 84,325 37.5
Total 102,546 45.6
Sources: Created by the authors referring to KEEI (2020d), GIR (2020), and Sewumteo (2021)
Using the previously collected information, we estimated the GHG reduction potential of green remodeling for public buildings. Table 5-20 shows the results. Green remodeling was carried out on 5,500 public buildings from 2020 to 2025, and as a result, GHG reduction in 2025 is expected to be about 138,000 tC〇2eq. Of these, the direct emission reduction would be 25,000 tCO2eq, and the indirect emission reduction would be 113,000 tCO2eq.
Table 5-20. Green Remodeling of Public Buildings Potential for GHG Reduction
(Unit: million KRW, cases, tCO2eq) 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 1 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 4 2 0 2 5 2020-2025 Government
Fund 227,600 227,600 224,501 271,662 271,662 271,662 1,494,687
Cases 834 841 826 1,000 1,000 1,000 5,500
Total Project
Costs 340,000 340,000 336,752 407,493 407,493 407,493 2,239,230
Baseline 38,016 38,335 37,656 45,566 45,566 45,566 250,705
After
Reduction 17，102 17,246 16,940 20,499 20,499 20,499 112,784
Reduction 20,914 21,089 20,716 25,067 25,067 25,067 137,920
Cumulative
Reduction 20,914 42,003 62,719 87,786 112,853 137,920 -
Source: Created by the authors
2.3. GHG Reduction Potential from Green Remodeling Support
We synthesized the GHG reduction potential of green remodeling for old rental housing and public buildings. Based on the results, we indirectly examined the effect of green remodeling as a part of KGND.
According to the scenario setting, the reduction potential of green remodeling for public buildings was constant without much change.
However, under the assumption that the budget for green remodeling for aging public rental housing gradually increases, we set the scenario to expand the project target to not only permanent/50-year rental housing but also national rental housing. As a result, it was found that the greenhouse gas GHG of green remodeling of old public rental housing gradually increased.
On the other hand, the effect of green remodeling will maintain cumulatively. In other words, a house or building that has undergone green remodeling in 2020 will maintain improved energy efficiency and GHG emission levels from 2021 to 2025. Therefore, the effect of green remodeling should be evaluated based on the cumulative amount of reduction. By 2025, the GHG reduction of housing units and buildings under green remodeling through the two projects is estimated to be 306,000 tCO2eq (Table 5-21).
Table 5-21. Green Remodeling's Greenhouse Gas Reduction Potential
(Unit: tCO2eq, 100 million KRW)
Projects Details 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Old Pulbic Rental Housing Reduction N 5,063 27,049 27,181 31,507 35,355 41,450
C 5,063 32,112 59,293 90,800 126,155 167,605
Project costs G 360 3,645 4,806 5,570 6,014 6,253
T 567 7,230 9,507 11,020 11,897 12,370
Public Buildings
Reduction N 20,914 21,089 20,716 25,067 25,067 25,067 C 20,914 42,003 62,719 87,786 112,853 137,920 Project costs G 2,276 2,276 2,245 2,717 2,717 2,717
T 3,400 3,400 3,368 4,075 4,075 4,075
Total
Reduction N 25,977 48,138 47,897 56,574 60,422 66,518 C 25,977 74,115 122,012 178,585 239,008 305,525 Project costs G 2,636 5,921 7,051 8,287 8,730 8,969
T 3,967 10,630 12,875 15,095 15,972 16,445
Note: N = new; A = cumulative; G = government fund; T = total project cost Source: Created by the authors
3. Evaluation of RE dissemination Support and Reduction Potential of Green Remodeling Projects
In 2020, Korea submitted to the UN the NDC that renewed its 2030 NDC. Here, the government changed the existing BAU-based GHG reduction target (37% reduction compared to 2030 BAU) to an absolute reduction target (24.4% reduction compared to 2017 emission).
In addition, the government has also submitted a long-term low GHG emission development strategy (LEDS), including a carbon-neutral vision for 2050 to the UN. Some argued that as carbon neutrality in 2050 was set as the national vision, the government should reset the 2030 NDC to match the goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. Accordingly, the government adjusted the NDC upwardly to prepare for the 26th UNFCCC COP in 2021. On October 8, 2021, the Presidential Committee on Carbon Neutrality published a publicly available amendment to the 2030 NDC.
On October 27, the State Council deliberated and finalized this plan.
This section examines how much the GHG reduction potential of the RE dissemination support and green remodeling projects can contribute to the reduction goals in the transition and building sectors of the upgraded 2030 NDC plan.
3.1. Reduction Potential Evaluation of RE Dissemination Support
Emissions from the conversion sector in the national GHG inventory in 2018 were 269.6 million tC〇2eq. According to the upgraded plan of 2030 NDC (Joint Ministries, 2021d), the target emission from the transition sector for 2030 is 149.9 MtCO2eq, a reduction of 44.4%
compared to 2018 (Figure 5-1). According to the NDC upgrade plan, the average annual emission reduction rate in the transition sector from 2018 to 2030 was 4.8%. Using this average yearly reduction rate, we estimate the projected target emissions for 2025 to be 191.4 MtCO2eq, a decrease of 78.1 MtCO2eq compared to 2018.
Figure 5-1. GHG Emission Trends and Targets in the Transition Sector
Sources: Created by the authors referring to Joint Ministries (2021d) and GIR (2020)