LATEST LABOUR MARKET DEVELOPMENTS AND SOME POLICY CHALLENGES
Council meeting, 19 September 2013
Stefano Scarpetta Director
Employment, Labour and Social Affairs OECD
Council
19 September 2013
2
Labour market prospects remain grim in the Euro area but some improvement in the United States
Unemployment rates, 2007 Q4-2014 Q4
Shaded area refers to the OECD economic projections.
Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD Economic Outlook Database.
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
OECD area Euro area
United States
Japan
3
Wide dispersion in unemployment rates and
new record highs have been reached in several countries
Unemployment rates
abefore the crisis, at its peak
band in Q2 2013
c0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28
%
Pre-crisis trough Peak Q2 2013
Note: Countries are shown in ascending order by the unemployment rate at its peak.
*: Information on data for Israel: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932315602.
a) For Israel, the series have been chained to take into account the break in series in 2012.
b) Trough (peak) dates are defined as the start of the longest spell of consecutive increase (decrease) of the quarterly unemployment rates since Q4 2007.
c) Q1 2013 for Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey and the United Kingdom.
Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD Short-Term Indicators Database (Cut-off date: 9 September 2013).
4
Youth have been hit particularly hard by the crisis and youth unemployment remains high in most countries
Youth unemployment rates
aDecember 2007-July 2013
b0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
%
December 2007 July 2013
Note: Countries are shown by ascending order of the youth unemployment rate in July 2013.
*: Information on data for Israel: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932315602.
a) For Israel, the series have been chained to take into account the break in the LFS series of the year 2012.
b) May 2013 for Greece, Norway, Turkey and the United Kingdom; June 2013 for Chile, Estonia, Hungary, Israel and Korea; August 2013 for Canada and the United States; 2013 Q1 for Switzerland; and 2013 Q2 for New Zealand.
Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD Short-Term Indicators Database (Cut-off date: 9 September 2013).
5
Labour market conditions are particularly difficult in the several Euro area countries
Unemployment rates, 2007 Q4-2014 Q4
Shaded area refers to the OECD economic projections.
Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD Economic Outlook Database.
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Portugal Greece
France
Germany Spain
Italy
6
The long-term unemployed now account for one in three unemployed persons in the OECD area
Percentage of unemployment,
aQ4 2007 and Q1 2013
bNote: Countries are shown by ascending order of the incidence of long-term unemployment in Q1 2013.
*: Information on data for Israel: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932315602.
a) Data are not seasonally adjusted but smoothed using three-quarter moving averages. OECD is the weighted average of 32 OECD countries excluding Chile and Korea. For Israel and Portugal, the series have been chained to take into account the breaks in the LFS series of the years 2012 and 2011, respectively b) Q4 2011 for Israel; Q4 2012 for the European Union, the euro area, France and Switzerland.
Source: OECD calculations based on the national labour force surveys.(Cut-off date: 5 July 2013).
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
%
Q4 2007 Q1 2013
7 Note: Excludes the Czech Republic and the countries for which standardised data by category on entry are not available.
Source: OECD International Migration Database.
Migration flows declined in the wake of the crisis, but have begun to rebound since 2011
Permanent immigration in OECD countries by category, 2007-2011
0 200 000 400 000 600 000 800 000 1 000 000 1 200 000 1 400 000 1 600 000
Family Free movement Work Humanitarian Accompanying family of
workers Other
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
8
Immigrants are among the workforce groups most affected by labour market conditions
Percentage-point changes in unemployment rates between 2008 and 2010
Source: Data from OECD International Migration Outlook based on national labour force surveys.
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
%
Native-born Foreign-born
9
