Council meeting, 13 February 2013
LATEST LABOUR MARKET DEVELOPMENTS AND SOME POLICY CHALLENGES, FEBRUARY 2013
John P. Martin Director
Employment, Labour and Social Affairs OECD
Council
13 February 2013
Labour market prospects remain grim in the Euro area but some improvement in the United States
Unemployment rates, 2007 Q4-2014 Q4
9 10 11 12 13
Euro area
5 6 7 8 9
OECD area
United States
Japan
2 Shaded area refers to the OECD economic projections.
Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD Economic Outlook Database.
3 4
2007 Q42008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Japan
Wide dispersion in unemployment rates and
new record highs have been reached in several countries
Unemployment rates
abefore the crisis, at its peak
band in 2012 Q4
c%
16 20 24 28
Pre-crisis trough Peak 2012 Q4
0 4 8 12
3 Note: Countries are shown in ascending order by the unemployment rate at its peak.
*: Information on data for Israel: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932315602.
a) For Israel, the series have been chained to take into account the break in series in 2012.
b) Trough (peak) dates are defined as the start of the longest spell of consecutive increase (decrease) of the quarterly unemployment rates since 2007 Q4.
c) 2012 Q2 for Switzerland; 2012 Q3 for Chile, Greece, Australia, Estonia, Hungary, Israel, Korea, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, Turkey and the United Kingdom. OECD and G7 average values for December 2012 are ELS estimates using the data available on 1stFebruary 2013.
Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD Short-Term Indicators Database (Cut-off date: 1st February 2013).
Youth have been hit particularly hard by the crisis and youth unemployment remains high in most countries
Youth unemployment rates
aDecember 2007-December 2012
b%
Youth unemployment rates December 2007 December 2012
30 35 40 45 50 55 60
December 2007 December 2012
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
4 Note: Countries are shown by ascending order of the youth unemployment rate in December 2012.
*: Information on data for Israel: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932315602.
a) For Israel, the series have been chained to take into account the break in the LFS series of the year 2012.
b) September 2012 for Italy (number of unemployed only); October 2012 for Chile, Greece, Turkey and the United Kingdom; November 2012 for Australia, Estonia, Hungary, Israel, Korea, Mexico and Norway; January 2013 for the United States; and 2012 Q3 for New Zealand and Switzerland. OECD and G7 average values for December 2012 are ELS estimates using the data available on 1st February 2013.
c) Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD Short-Term Indicators Database (Cut-off date: 1st February 2013).
The long-term unemployed now account for one in three unemployed persons in the OECD area
Percentage of unemployment,
a2007 Q4 and 2012 Q3
b%
40 50 60 70 80
2007 Q4 2012 Q3
0 10 20 30
5 Note: Countries are shown by ascending order of the incidence of long-term unemployment in 2012 Q3.
*: Information on data for Israel: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932315602.
a) Data are not seasonally adjusted but smoothed using three-quarter moving averages. OECD is the weighted average of 32 OECD countries excluding Chile and Korea. For Israel and Portugal, the series have been chained to take into account the breaks in the LFS series of the years 2012 and 2011, respectively b) 2011 Q4 for Israel; and 2012 Q2 for Iceland.
Source: OECD calculations based on the national labour force surveys.(Cut-off date: 1st February 2013).
Employment growth in the recovery has been anaemic and turned negative again in the Euro area
% change (quarter-on-quarter) of non-agricultural dependent employment g (q q ) g p p y
Euro area United States Japan
0 0.5
%1
0 0.5
%1
0 0.5
%1
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0
2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0
2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0
6 -2 -2
Source: OECD estimates based on Eurostat, Quarterly National Accounts, Japan Statistics Labour Force Survey results, and BLS, Current Employment Statistics (Cut-off date: 1st February 2013).
The decline in the unemployment rate compares unfavourably with previous recoveries (1)
Index base 100 = real GDP at the business-cycle trough of the output gap, quarterly data
OECD area Euro area
a100 105 110
110 120 130
85 90 95
2009 Q2 Projected
2003 Q1 1993 Q3 90
100
2009 Q2 Projected 2003 Q2 1993 Q4
a) Aggregated real GDP of the 15 OECD countries of the Euro area (excluding Cyprus and Malta). 7 Source: OECD calculations based on OECD Economic Outlook No. 92.
80
0 4 8 12 16 20
Quarters elapsed since the end of the recession
Q Q
1982 Q4 1975 Q2
80
0 4 8 12 16 20
Quarters elapsed since the end of the recession
Q Q
1983 Q2
The decline in the unemployment rate compares unfavourably with previous recoveries (2)
Index base 100 = real GDP at the business-cycle trough of the output gap, quarterly data
Japan United States
100 110 120 130
90 100 110
70 80 90
2009 Q1 Projected
60 70 80
2009 Q2 Projected 2003 Q1 1991 Q4
Source: OECD calculations based on OECD Economic Outlook No. 92. 8 50
60
0 4 8 12 16 20
Quarters elapsed since the end of the recession 2003 Q1 1987 Q1
1975 Q1
50
0 4 8 12 16 20
Quarters elapsed since the end of the recession 2003 Q1 1991 Q4
1982 Q4 1975 Q1
Thank you Thank you
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