Daily Report for Thursday, May 26, 2016
1
Report for
Thursday, May 26, 2015 Khordad 6, 1394
Highlights, Page 2 News Briefs, Page 3 Other Stories, Page 3
Analyst: US policies move Iraq towards disintegration, Page 5 Rafsanjani’s vogue soars among people, Page 6
East will continue to remain Iran’s friend, Page 8
What’s fueling opposition to Iran’s new oil contracts? Page 11
Saudi Arabia has a Plan B to try to stop Iran’s economic rise, Page 14
Daily Report for Thursday, May 26, 2016
2 Highlights
IRDiplomacy website posts an article arguing that Rafsanjani is gaining popularity among the people, while the clerics see him with less favor. (See Page 6)
A recent trip to Iran by the South Korean president, which came after similar visits by heads of state from China and Vietnam, followed by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Tehran this week have been collectively construed as the most important symbol of a major change in Iran’s interactions with the East; a development, which can be considered as the second stage of Iran’s “Look to the East” policy. (See Page 8)
The future of a new framework for Iranian oil contracts remains blurry as political infighting seems to be preventing its finalization. (See Page 11)
The kingdom is mobilizing its Gulf allies to make sure that Iran’s opening-up to the global economy doesn’t go smoothly. (See Page 14)
Daily Report for Thursday, May 26, 2016
3
News Briefs
* Iranian Statistics Center was hacked by an unknown group. Some Iranian news outlets have published screenshots of a google search result for the Center, reading
“Hacked by Da3s Hacker Group” in Arabic. Tabnak, a conservative media outlet, claimed that a Saudi-affiliated hacking group perpetrated the attack.
* Emtiaz newspaper reports that Deputy Health Minister Dr. Ali Akbar Sayyari has said that smoking kills one each second.
The newspaper ran this comment as its front page main headline.
* Emtiaz newspaper reports that Deputy Health Minister for Medical Treatment Mohammad Aghajani said that 80 hospitals in Iran are more than 50 years old, therefore in a dilapidated condition in terms of maintenance.
* Etemad reformist newspaper reports that Deputy Interior Minister for Social Affairs Morteza Mir-Bagheri says that it has been arranged with the Judiciary to halt no-fault divorces in Iran in order to reduce the rate of divorces in Iran.
* Reacting to hard-line conservative newspaper’s Yalasarat prediction that Rouhani’s government would be the only post-revolution one-term government, Mohammad Reza Khatami [former president khatami’s brother] said this would remain just a dream.
* Tasnim News Agency reports that Iranian dies from wounds suffered near Fallujah. Ghorban Najafi, an Iran-Iraq war veteran and Basij member from Golestan province, died on May 24 in a Tehran hospital from wounds suffered on the battlefield near Fallujah.
* Seven members of the Afghan Shia militia group Fatimiyoun killed in Syria will be buried in Mashhad on May 26.
* Traffic Police chief Taghi Mehri said that 23% of the fatalities in road accidents involved Pride car model [seen as a low- quality car].
Other stories
MPs debate bill on Rouhani administration appointments
On May 24, lawmakers reentered debate over legislation originally rejected by the Guardian Council in March that would require the Judiciary and the IRGC Intelligence Organization, in addition to the Ministry of Intelligence and Security, to approve appointments to
“sensitive government positions.” The Ministry of Intelligence and Security is currently the only government entity formally responsible for confirming security-related appointments.
The legislation also prevents dual citizens, individuals who do not have a “belief and commitment to the Constitution and the Guardianship of the Jurist,” and others from being appointed to “sensitive government positions.”
Majid Ansari, the vice president for legal and parliamentary affairs, criticized the proposed legislation and requested that it be reviewed in the upcoming parliament.
Hardline newspapers celebrate new Assembly of Experts chairman
Kayhan ran its lead story on Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati’s election as the Assembly’s chairman under headline
“Thorn in the eye of the British becomes Assembly of Experts chairman.”
The headline references a pre-election conspiracy that foreign media, particularly BBC Persian, sought to interfere in the Assembly elections by discouraging the reelection of prominent hard-liners.
Daily Report for Thursday, May 26, 2016
4
The previous Assembly Chairman Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, and Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi lost their seats.
Conservative newspaper Vatan-e Emrooz mocked a reformist slogan during the elections by covering Jannati’s election with the headline “Repeat Jannati”.
Life expectancy in Iran rises to 73 for men, 76 for women
State-owned newspaper Iran reports that Hassan Eini-Zinab, a university professor specializing in demographics at the University of Shahid Beheshti, noted that Iranian men had an average life expectancy of 42 in 1950, but it gradually increased, reaching 73 by 2011.
“Life expectancy among Iranian women has also risen during these years, rising from 38 in 1950 to 76 in 2011,” he said.
The rates are expected to increase in the coming years, but the rate of increase is going to be slower than previously, Eini- Zinab explained.
He added that the rate of fatalities among citizens aged between 18 and 35 has increased, mainly because of drug addiction, car accidents, and social ills.
Larijani criticizes reformist politician’s disqualification
Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani criticized the Guardian Council’s controversial post- election disqualification of Minoo
Khaleghi, a reformist politician who had won a seat in the February 26 parliamentary elections.
Larijani stated, “We must adhere to the country’s legal system. Because the law has explicitly given a time frame for the Guardian Council’s assessment [of candidates], my opinion is that this issue cannot be extended after the elections. The Guardian Council’s interpretation [of its powers] differs, however.”
Larijani added that he has raised the issue of Khaleghi’s disqualification during a meeting with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Aref reiterates his “serious candidacy” for Majlis speaker
The Telegram channel of the reformist- moderate List of Hope published a statement by Mohammad Reza Aref, a senior reformist politician and incoming parliamentarian, reiterating that he will challenge current parliament speaker Ali Larijani for the position.
The vote for parliament speaker will be held on May 27.
Aref also addressed the possibility of losing the internal election for parliament speaker, stating, “If the [reformist- moderate] faction of Hope is not the majority faction, we must not compromise our commitments in Parliament. We will pursue our programs to the best of our ability in various parliamentary commissions.”
Daily Report for Thursday, May 26, 2016
5 Analyst: US policies move Iraq
towards disintegration
Khabar Online conservative news website: Nosratollah Tajik, a senior Middle East expert and the former Iranian ambassador to Jordan, believes that the policies followed by the United States in Iraq will definitely lead to the Arab country’s disintegration.
“The US didn’t have a good understanding of Iraq’s domestic issues and lacked a transparent policy towards the country. For those reasons, it can be regarded as one of the main culprits behind the current situation in Iraq,” Tajik said.
“The economic interests that Iraq had for the US were reasons for Washington’s interference in the Arab country. Washington, therefore, has had the greatest influence on the arrangement of Iraq’s domestic politics and its ruling system, given the power it achieved through its interference in Baghdad,” he went on to say.
However, Tajik said, the US was unfortunately unaware of Iraq’s internal affairs and Iraqi society was not prepared [for US intervention], either.
Under such circumstances, the system pursued by the Americans will gradually move Iraq towards disintegration, he predicted.
Iran’s reaction to the current crisis in Iraq
“In my opinion, Iraq is not on a good track. This undesirable trend might even have negative effects on our [Iran’s] national security,” he warned.
“We need to have well-ordered and calculated policies towards Iraq. The sectarian issues in Iraq will be of no help to our foreign policy, so we should prepare the groundwork for restoring stability and security to Iraq, and adopt an approach that helps them overcome the crisis.”
Daily Report for Thursday, May 26, 2016
6 Rafsanjani’s vogue soars among people,
plummets among clerics
IRDiplomacy news website: Ayatollah Ali Jannati’s victory might sound surprising as he was on the verge of elimination during the public election where he finished sixteenth from the Tehran constituency. The 90-year-old, who found himself eligible for the election and then verified the ‘health’ of the marathon of the election he scarcely finished, was targeted in a campaign to block the so-called JYM trio, alongside Ayatollahs Yazdi and Mesbah, who failed to be elected at the end of the day. Hashemi Rafsanjani, allegedly behind the so-called English plot, had the highest number of ballots, excelling President Hassan Rouhani, with more than 2.3 million votes. However, despite his traditional leadership in the assembly, he did not run for the assembly’s chair, but backed Ayatollah Amini. Mostafa Danandeh explains in an article originally published in Asre-Iran why Hashemi is not the same political leader of the 1980s and 1990s for members of the assembly.
“Two of the most significant questions that come to mind after Ayatollah Jannati’s ascent to the chair of the Assembly of Experts are why Rafsanjani did not run and why the candidate affiliated with him did not come out as the victor. Considering the returns of the February 26 Assembly of Experts election and the people’s ballots bestowed on the list proposed by Hashemi Rafsanjani, why were the votes put in Ayatollah Jannati’s urn?
To answer these questions, two essential points should be taken into account. First, Rafsanjani had few like-minded candidates in the recent election. Many a religious and political figure affiliated with him such as Hassan Khomeini and Mousavi Bojnourdi were barred from the election and that is why Hashemi Rafsanjani was forced to put on-loan companions in his ‘experts of the nation’ list. His main objective was blocking certain political figures from the assembly, which was achieved through the ballots cast. In other words, Rafsanjani used his moderate opponents to expel his powerful opponents. The latter’s refusal to run for the chair indicates this very objective, as almost everyone knew that Ayatollah Movahedi Kermani or Dorri Najafabadi would move in line with Rafsanjani’s strategy in the next assembly.
The second thing to be noted is that Hashemi and his adherents should admit that he is not as welcome as he used to be among the seminaries and the scholars who have been
Daily Report for Thursday, May 26, 2016
7
elected to the Assembly of Experts. In an interview on Rafsanjani’s role in the assembly, Ayatollah Haeri Shirazi, a former member of the Assembly of Experts, had said: “Anyone who competed with Mr. Hashemi was defeated; Mr. Jannati or others joined, but they failed too. Mr. Mahdavi [Kani], too, was elected because Mr.
Hashemi declined to run out of respect for him. Later, Mr. Mahdavi said Mr. Hashemi had delegated the post to him”.
What has happened that Rafsanjani himself loses the competition in the fourth assembly to Ayatollah Yazdi and the candidate associated with him in the fifth assembly loses to Ayatollah Jannati? It seems that the clerics of the Assembly of Experts are offended by Rafsanjani’s positions after the 2009 election and even believe he is not the former revolutionary he used to be.
Before 2009 and in 2007, Rafsanjani obtained 41 votes from the fifth assembly, overcoming Ayatollah Jannati’s 34 votes, and became the chairman. Also in 2008, Rafsanjani was reelected with 51 votes versus Ayatollah Yazdi’s 26.
Rafsanjani’s stances in recent years have distanced those who found him a perfect political leader and moved them toward his political rivals. The year 2009 was a turning point in Rafsanjani’s political life. He moved away from the principlist stream and approached reformism. Exclusion of Rafsanjani from the Society of Seminary Teachers’ list in the fifth Assembly of Experts election was a clear indication.”
Rafsanjani and President Rouhani have both officially expressed content with the line- up of the Assembly of Experts’ board of directors. Jannati’s chairmanship with a great margin has been interpreted as Rafsanjani’s bitter defeat and seen as a prelude for the election of the next parliament’s speaker, which would be between the reformist Mohammad Reza Aref and moderate principlist Ali Larijani.
Daily Report for Thursday, May 26, 2016
8 East will continue to remain Iran’s friend
Iran Review news website. Mohsen Shariatinia. University Professor & Senior Expert at The Center for Strategic Research (CSR), Tehran
The change in Iran’s foreign policy under President Hassan Rouhani is often associated with the agreement that Tehran reached with world powers for the resolution of its nuclear crisis. However, since Rouhani came to office, especially in the months that have followed the conclusion of Iran’s nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Islamic Republic’s relations with Eastern countries have undergone major developments as well. A recent trip to Iran by the South Korean president, which came after similar visits by heads of state from China and Vietnam, followed by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Tehran this week have been collectively construed as the most important symbol of a major change in Iran’s interactions with the East; a development, which can be considered as the second stage of Iran’s “Look to the East” policy.
Of course, looking to the East has been always of importance to Iran’s foreign policy, but it was first brought up as a foreign policy approach under the former Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad. At that time, China, India, Japan and South Korea turned into Iran’s most important trade partners, but international sanctions, which were later imposed on Iran, complicated the two sides’ relations, created important barriers on the way of those relations, and dissuaded Iran’s public opinion about further expansion of ties with Eastern countries. Today, however, under conditions which have come about following the conclusion of the JCPOA, a new phase of the Look to the East policy has started. What are the most important features of the second phase of the Look to the East policy?
The changing role of the United States
Relations between Iran and important Asian countries in the past decade have not been simply bilateral relations, but have been actually trilateral relations and the United States, as a third party, has played an important role in shaping those relations.
Therefore, the first and most important factor, which differentiates the current phase of Iran’s look to the East from the past is the changing role of the United States. Under Ahmadinezhad, although Iran’s common interests with these countries were expanding, the United States had greatly limited the two sides’ interactions through
Daily Report for Thursday, May 26, 2016
9
multilateral and unilateral sanctions, which were imposed on Iran. South Korea and Japan rapidly moved to limit their relations with Iran within framework of the United States’ sanctions, India gradually adapted to those sanctions while China tried to maintain a minimum level of interactions with Iran in order to use them as leverage in strategic bargaining with the United States.
In post-JCPOA conditions, however, the United States has shown no sensitivity about Iran’s expanding interactions with key countries in Asia and this issue has practically removed the biggest obstacle that existed on the way of the expansion of bilateral relations. Despite this change, ambiguities about future outlook of interactions between Iran and the United States have still overshadowed Iran’s relations with these countries. Whether Iran and the United States move toward reduction of tensions or escalation of tensions in the future will have profoundly different effects on the future perspective of relations between Iran and major Asian countries as well.
The changing role of oil
The second factor, which differentiates the new phase of the “Look to the East”
policy, is the changing role of energy resources, especially crude oil. During recent months, unlike the tenure of Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad, global oil market has undergone profound changes and international oil prices have taken a nosedive.
Therefore, oil is not an important factor in determining Iran’s relations with these countries as it was before. This is why all sides are trying to come up with other issues as key areas for cooperation. Turning the megaproject of the Silk Road economic belt into the most important field of cooperation between Iran and China, focusing on the issue of investment as the most important area for cooperation between Iran and South Korea, and possibly the development of Chabahar port and its turning into the most important field of cooperation between Iran and India can be considered as symbols of multilayered cooperation between these countries. Although oil is still an important factor in the “Look to the East” policy, unlike past years, it is not a determining factor anymore.
New rivals
In time of sanctions, Asians, especially the Chinese, were unrivaled in the Iranian market. However, under post-JCPOA conditions, firstly, Asian countries have turned into one another’s rivals and secondly, European states, especially the French and Italians, are currently trying to reclaim their past position in Iran. The high level of
Daily Report for Thursday, May 26, 2016
1 0
European technology, better understanding of Iran by European countries, and the positive attitude that Iran’s private sector has towards the European companies will certainly turn them into staunch rivals for Asian countries.
Iran’s changing approach
During the sanctions period, Iran cooperated with Asian countries under special international conditions, but now it is trying to expand its relations with them through a new approach. Of course, there is no difference among Iranian elites about the importance of the expansion of relations with the aforesaid countries, but top economic officials of Iran have said frequently that they don’t want the country to turn into a mere market for industrial products of other countries, because they give priority to promoting joint production of industrial products. Through this change in approach, Iran is actually trying to change its interactions with key Asian countries from the simple model of oil for goods to more complicated models of economic partnership. This change will, on the one hand, make implementation of bilateral agreements possibly more complicated, while on the other hand, push both sides toward some sort of mutual dependence; a form of dependence which makes the two sides sensitive and vulnerable to possible cessation of exchanges.
The second phase of the “Look to the East” policy is rapidly moving ahead, though it has received less attention from mass media. Such factors as common economic interests between these countries and Iran, absence of political obstacles, and the growing position of key Asian countries in global economy provide powers in this region with important opportunities to maintain their status as Iran’s major partners in trade and investment under post-sanctions conditions. All told, it is possible that a large part of the JCPOA’s achievements for Iran would finally come through the Islamic Republic’s interaction with Asia, not the West. And even more importantly, at the end of the day, neither Iran nor the West, but Asian countries may be the main winner of conditions both before and after the JCPOA.
Daily Report for Thursday, May 26, 2016
1 1 What’s fueling opposition to
Iran’s new oil contracts?
Al-Monitor news website: Iran’s current buyback scheme, which reduces the role of international partners to that of service providers, has been very unpopular among international oil companies. It has been a major factor in the reduction of investment in the Iranian energy sector.
Upon taking office in August 2013, President Hassan Rouhani vowed to amend the fiscal terms for cooperation with international partners. His efforts led to the November 2015 unveiling of the framework for a new oil contract scheme, the Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC), which aimed to attract investment and technology to Iran’s energy sector. Making the case for a “win-win” solution, Petroleum Minister Bijan Zanganeh noted that the IPC was designed to meet Iran’s needs while being attractive to international partners.
In contrast to the buyback scheme, the IPC seeks to take into account the concerns of foreign companies. It allows for more flexible remuneration and longer engagements while international companies are also allowed to book oil reserves. At the same time, the IPC is intended to empower the Iranian energy industry as international investors are required to partner with an Iranian counterpart.
Against the backdrop of the IPC announcement and the Jan. 16 Implementation Day of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which led to the lifting and termination of several energy and financial sanctions, international energy companies have rushed to Tehran. Numerous memoranda of understanding have been signed, including by France’s Total, Germany’s Wintershall and Italy’s ENI.
However, no investment decisions have yet been made and Iran has yet to present the IPC’s actual details. A conference in London to this end has been repeatedly postponed in the past two years. Iranian officials have suggested that the latest cancelation was due to visa issues, although this explanation falls short of clarifying why Iran has not come forward with precise details on the IPC.
Daily Report for Thursday, May 26, 2016
1 2
It appears as though political tensions over the IPC are mounting in Tehran, leaving the future of the new framework for oil contracts up for debate. In this vein, two main issues are at stake.
At the forefront, there is an internal debate in Tehran about whether Iran should seek cooperation with international partners at all. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and ultra-conservative politicians argue that self-sufficiency and independence are the way to protect the Islamic Republic’s economy. Attaching first priority to the economy, Khamenei argues that the “main point is that the people of Iran should do something to liberate themselves from vulnerabilities in the face of the enemies’ threats and enmities.” On the other side of the debate, Rouhani and his administration are calling for moderation. In politics and economics alike, the administration emphasizes constructive interaction with the outside world.
Underneath this debate lies another competition between the two camps. Here the struggle is about the economic benefits of a potential re-integration of the Iranian energy sector into the global markets. In the past decade, when EU and US sanctions forced Western companies out of the Iranian energy sector, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) took over large swaths of the industry. In doing so, they were aided by former hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who in 2011 handed the Oil Ministry over to Gen. Rostam Qassemi, an IRGC commander.
Since assuming office in 2013, moderate-leaning Rouhani has been challenging the IRGC’s role in politics and the economy. The opening of Iran’s energy sector threatens the IRGC’s position. As such, the fine details of the IPC remain a highly politically sensitive matter.
In this struggle, the hand of the Rouhani administration may have been strengthened recently as Iranians elected a rather moderate parliament, voting out several hard- liners and giving mandates to many of the president’s allies. As a result, disputes between the government and parliament — a regular feature of Iranian politics — might become milder. This could give way to IPC policies more in line with the president’s approach of reaching out to international partners. Although the conservative-controlled Guardian Council would still need to approve any IPC bill passed by the parliament, endorsement by both government and parliament would constitute a crucial step forward.
Daily Report for Thursday, May 26, 2016
1 3
Government officials have recently announced that the IPC will be ready by July, a timeline that accounts for several months for the incoming parliament to take shape.
Nonetheless, it should be borne in mind that the political and economic clout of the conservatives is still substantial, as they command key positions in the Guardian Council, the judiciary as well as the security apparatus. Significant portions of the Iranian economy, including the energy sector, continue to remain under the de facto control of institutions linked to this camp.
Hence, for any IPC legislation to be successful, some form of elite consensus will be necessary. It remains to be seen whether a proposal can be found that will be acceptable to the various political factions at home while attractive enough to companies abroad to serve its purpose. The reality is that the future of the IPC remains uncertain. Only time will tell whether the Rouhani administration will succeed in opening a new chapter for Iran’s troubled energy sector.
Daily Report for Thursday, May 26, 2016
1 4 Saudi Arabia has a Plan B
to try to stop Iran’s economic rise
Bloomberg website. Ladane Nasseri. Glen Carey: Saudi Arabia couldn’t stop the Iran nuclear deal from being signed. Plan B is to limit Iran’s ability to reap its benefits.
The kingdom is mobilizing its Gulf allies to make sure that, more than four months after the lifting of sanctions on the Islamic Republic, Iran’s opening-up to the global economy doesn’t go smoothly. Last month the Saudis scuttled a bid to stabilize crude prices because it would have allowed their bitter foe to grab a larger share of oil markets. And in Dubai, once their main gateway to the world, Iranian businessmen privately complain of increasing restrictions.
It’s a rearguard action by the Saudis as the U.S. reassesses its role in the Middle East and investors are drawn to the allure of Iran as the world’s last untapped major frontier market. Still, there are other drags on doing business with Iran that play into the Saudi effort: European banks are still reluctant to do business in the Islamic Republic for fear of possible U.S. sanctions.
“The contest over Iran’s status in the region – whether it is to be isolated or accepted as a normal regional player – is likely to continue over the next few years,” said Paul Pillar, a professor at Georgetown University. “The Saudis, in the pro-isolation camp, may not win this contest. But they have allies in the person of hardliners in the U.S.
who opposed the nuclear agreement.”
Proxy Wars
The Saudis and Iranians, leaders of the Sunni and Shiite Muslim camps in the Middle East, are already clashing via proxies on the battlefields of Syria and Yemen. Their long-troubled relationship got worse when Saudi Arabia executed a top Saudi Shiite cleric in January, and an Iranian mob responded by attacking the kingdom’s embassy in Tehran, leading the Saudis to cut all diplomatic ties.
Since the easing of sanctions early this year, a key Saudi concern has been that Iran will use the proceeds of a potential wave of investment to step up engagement in regional conflicts. That’s one reason the Saudis are doing their bit to ensure the investment never arrives.
Daily Report for Thursday, May 26, 2016
1 5
“What has concerned people is some of the rhetoric that has been used by the Saudis around cutting trade with Iran, and what sort of formal and informal mechanisms and obstacles they can use to put pressure on businesses not to go into Iran,” said Henry Smith, a director at Global Risk Analysis in Dubai.
Trade Ties
Dubai is a city that’s always had close ties to Iran, but these days business licences for Iranian nationals aren’t being renewed easily. It’s also difficult for citizens to get residency, and bank accounts are coming under increased scrutiny, according to Iranian businessmen.
Officials contacted by Bloomberg in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates didn’t immediately comment.
Times Aerospace, a U.K.-based company that organizes events in Dubai, cancelled its Aviation Iran gathering this year because of political tension. “There are a lot of sensitivities at the moment with Iran in the Gulf,” Mark Brown, director of the group, said in an interview. “We recognize that it’s inappropriate at this moment to hold an Iran-related event.”
Saudi Arabia is also using oil as a weapon against Iran. Ahead of a meeting in Doha last month, where producers were planning to freeze production, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said in two interviews with Bloomberg that the Saudis would only go along with the plan if Iran agreed to participate. That effectively torpedoed the deal, since Iran has ruled out curbs on pumping because it’s trying to recover markets lost during the sanctions years.
‘No hesitation’
“Oil policy was one of the instruments,” said Mustafa Alani, head of defense and security department at the Gulf Research Center. “The other thing is to counter Iranian investment in the region. Under King Salman it has become a clear-cut policy. There is no hesitation.”
Also last month, Saudi Arabia banned Iran’s Mahan Airline from flying through Saudi airspace. Shipping insurers and brokers have been advising clients since February that ships carrying Iranian crude will not be permitted to enter Saudi or Bahraini waters,
Daily Report for Thursday, May 26, 2016
1 6
according to an April report by Control Risks. It said ships that have been to Iran as one of their last three points of entry must also receive special approval.
Saudi rulers are complementing those efforts with attempts to deepen Iran’s political isolation in the Middle East.
U.S. Ties
Last month, Jordan recalled its ambassador to Iran shortly after a visit by the Saudi deputy crown prince. Ten days later, it signed an accord that could pave the way for multi-billion-dollar Saudi investments. In February, the kingdom scrapped a $3 billion deal to supply much-needed weapons to the Lebanese military, citing the rising influence of Hezbollah, a militant group backed by Tehran.
The Saudi moves take place against the backdrop of cooler ties with the U.S., in part because of the Iranian nuclear deal. In interviews published by The Atlantic magazine, President Barack Obama said the Saudis must “share” their region with Iran, and was reported describing the U.S. relationship with the kingdom as “complicated.”
The Saudi push is a “patchwork campaign,” Shashank Joshi, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, said by phone. The Saudis can’t do much to block Iran at the global level, he said, but they’re “applying pressure on Iran wherever they are able to do so, to limit its political and economic influence.”
But one hurdle for the Saudis is that the other Gulf Cooperation Council states, key to the effort, may not be totally on board.
Bahrain was the only other country in the six-member GCC to follow the Saudis in cutting diplomatic ties this year. Kuwait recalled its ambassador to Tehran in January ans the United Arab Emirates reduced its diplomatic representation to the level of charge d’affaires.
The U.A.E has more at stake than the kingdom: Iran was its third largest trading partner in 2015, after India and China.
“We still see pretty substantial disagreements within the GCC,” Joshi said. “Iran is already integrated into the Gulf economic systems, and I don’t think anything Saudi Arabia can do can seriously disentangle that.”
