The Express-Assessment of Main Monetary Indicators of Russia and the Countries of CIS

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The Express-Assessment of Main Monetary Indicators of Russia and the Countries of CIS

Elena Nikolaevna Vyborova

Professor, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Kazan, Tatarstan, Russia E-mail: envyborova@gmail.com

Received: February 17, 2018. Revised: March 20, 2018. Accepted: March 23, 2018.

Abstract

Purpose – This study is to analyze indicators characterizing the monetary turnover and its determining factors. Also this paper looked at the evolution of monetary aggregates of the Russian Federation, Australian, Sweden, Denmark, countries of CIS at the present stage of development and in the historical context.

Research design, data, and methodology – The scale of research on Russia: to be analyzed the amount of data from the 2011 by 2016. In the historical context of the estimated data in the 1900-2011. On Belarus - the 2007-2017, on Tajikistan - the 2000 – 2017, on Kazakhstan - the 2000-2017, on Kyrgyzstan - the 2000-2017, on Australian - the 1959-2017, on Sweden - the 2009-2017, on Denmark - the 1999-2017.

Results – Hypothesis 1. In Russian Federation the monetary stock has the steady tendency to growth. The dynamics of money supply in Russia is largely determined by historical events. Hypothesis 2. The dynamics of money supply the leading countries-partners has the tendency to grow. The monetary amount of countries-partners are analyzed is largely determined by external debt, GDP, the exports, the imports, the international reserves.

Conclusions – The dynamics of monetary stock of Russia is determined by the historical events in many respects.

The Russian Federation maintains a steady and the liquid economic position in the case of considerable amount of monetary stock and the high degree of its surplus. In most of the countries studied, the monetary supply has a significant volume exceeding the needs of the economy. If the distribution of monetary mass is adequate and there is a vertical of financial control, this will not have a negative impact on the country's economic stability and the development.

Keywords:

Monetary Stock, Monetary Base, Regulation by Monetary Movement

JEL Classification Code

: E41, E6, E58.

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1. Introduction

The monetary stock in Russia in the national definition in Russia (monetary aggregate, M2) includes the cash in movement outside the banking system (monetary aggregate, M0), the balances on the accounts of legal entities and the deposits of the population and the legal entities. While the monetary aggregate M1 includes М0 and the balances on the accounts, the monetary aggregate M2 respectively includes the sum M1 and the deposits (Bahmani-Oskooee

& Ratha, 2008).

The monetary base of Russian Federation in the broad definition includes the cash in circulation and the other elements (the balances on correspondent accounts, the deposits in Central Bank of Russian Federation, the statutory reserves, and the bonds of Central Bank from the credit institutions).

The method of research was analyzed using the methods of multivariate statistics and application of the software package Statgraphics.

The evolution monetary stock of Russian Federation recently shows that from the 2011 the money stock has an annual tendency to grow (Table 1). The average money stock grows at the 12.53 %. In particular, in the 2015-2016 monetary stock increased at the 11.52 % that is the 3698.7 billion rubles. While the deposits increased by 15.02 % that is the 2512.2 billion rubles. The monetary aggregate M1 has the tendency to increase at the 7.71 % that is the 1186.4 billion rubles, and the cash money (M0) – 0.94 %, that is the 67.6 billion rubles. The evolution structure of monetary stock, it should be noted that the cash money (M0) is on the 01.07.2016 – 20.20 %. The monetary aggregate M1 on the 01.11.2016 occupy in the total volume 45.24 %, the deposits – 54.76 %. While the largest share of deposits makes up the deposits of population – 69.46 %.

Table 1: The composition of monetary stock of Russian Federation in the national determination in the 2011-2016.

Billion RUB

Data М0 М1 The deposit The monetary stock М2

01.01.2011 5062,7 10859,9 9152 20011,9

01.01.2012 5938,6 12857,4 11625,7 24483,1

01.01.2013 6430,1 13753,6 13651,8 27405,4

01.01.2014 6985,6 15536,6 15868,1 31404,7

01.01.2015 7171,5 15388,8 16721,8 32110,5

01.01.2016 7239,1 16575,2 19234 35809,2

The dynamics of monetary aggregates of the Russian Federation in the 2017 is relatively stable (Figure 1, 2). The monetary supply (M2) on the 01.10.2017 amounted the 39420.1 billion rubles. The monetary aggregate (M0) had a slight increase and on the 01.10.2017 amounted the 8066.7 billion rubles, the monetary aggregate (M1) in the same period of time - the 18076.4 billion rubles. The monetary base in broad definition on the 01.10.2017 amounted the 129,162 billion rubles.

Figure 1: The dynamics of monetary base in broad definition of RF in the 2017.

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3 Figure 2: The dynamics of monetary aggregates of RF in the 2017.

On the basis of correlation and regression analysis building the forecast of dynamics the monetary stock on the basis of polynom the second degree (Figure 3):

у = 18926.2 + 307.9 *t – 0,851*t ²

Time Sequence Plot for DM

Quadratic trend = 18926,2 + 307,929 t + -0,851443 t^2

D M

actual forecast 95,0% limits

1.50 1.52 1.54 1.56 1.58 1.60 19

23 27 31 35 39 (X 1000)43

Figure 3: The dynamics of money stock of RF in the national definition.

When you build a model, for the accuracy calculations used the data at the 2011 monthly. For short-term forecasting on the three months consider the three variants of scenarios. As options were use the level values of relevance model.

The study of redundancy money stock or her disadvantage without the assessment of obligations is the international trade, GDP and international reserves (Clark, Dollar & Micco, 2004). Naturally, the increase in the obligations of the state would inevitably lead to an increase of monetary stock, as the excessive substitution of

M0 M1 M2

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4 import (Egger & Larch, 2011). The results of correlation analysis in Russia showed that monetary stock is determined by the 80.8 % of external debt, at the 86.83 % of GDP, at the 26.43 % of exports, the 23.2 % of imports.

It should be noted that the indicators are presented below are applied in the analysis of international liquidity, the economic stability of the country. The dependence of the monetary stock from the above mentioned indicators is as follows:

у = 5513.96 + 12.8975*Exp + 0.622748*GDP – 25.4605*Imp + 0.0294394*MR + 0.00500545*VD, где Exp – the export,

GDP – GDP, Imp – the import,

MR – the international reserves, VD – the external debt.

While increasing exports on 1$ leads to an increase of monetary stock at 12.9 RUB, the growth of GDP of 1 ruble leads to increase of monetary stock by 0.62 RUB, lowering the import on 1 $ leads to an increase of monetary stock at the 25.46 RUB, the growth of international reserves on 1 $ leads to an increase of monetary stock at the 0.03 RUB, an increase the foreign debt on 1 $ leads to the growth of monetary stock on the 0.01 RUB.

The dynamics of the monetary base of Russian Federation in the broad definition in the 15 past years has a tendency to increase in annual average of the 20.93 % per cent (Table 2).

Table 2: The composition of monetary base of Russian Federation in the broad definition in the 2011-2016.

Billion RUB Month The monetary

base, total The cash The other elements

The specific weight of

cash, %

The specific weight of other

elements, %

01.01.2001 721,6 446,5 275,1 61,88 38,12

01.01.2002 928,3 623,5 304,9 67,17 32,84

01.01.2003 1232,6 813,9 418,7 66,03 33,97

01.01.2004 1914,3 1224,7 689,6 63,98 36,02

01.01.2005 2380,3 1669,9 710,4 70,16 29,84

01.01.2006 2914,2 2195,4 718,9 75,33 24,67

01.01.2007 4122,4 3062,1 1060 74,28 25,71

01.01.2008 5513,3 4118,6 1394,8 74,70 25,30

01.01.2009 5578,7 4372,2 1206,6 78,37 21,63

01.01.2010 6467,3 4622,9 1844,4 71,48 28,52

01.01.2011 8190,3 5785,8 2405,2 70,63 29,37

01.01.2012 8644,1 6895,8 1748,3 79,77 20,23

01.01.2013 9852,8 7667,7 2185,1 77,82 22,18

01.01.2014 10503,9 8307,5 2196,4 79,09 22,91

01.01.2015 11332 8840,5 2491,5 78,01 21,99

01.01.2016 11043,8 8522,2 2521,6 77,17 22,83

On the basis of prospective analysis, the study analyzed period of time using the methods of multidimensional statistics (Huang, 2011). Will present the short-term forecast on the Russia's monetary base, on the basis polynom of the second degree (Figure 4):

у = - 5.557 + 48.8* t + 0.057 * t²

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Time Sequence Plot for DB

Quadratic trend = -5,55729 + 48,8005 t + 0,0565105 t^2

D B

0 40 80 120 160 200 240

0 3 6 9 12 (X 1000)15

Figure 4: The dynamic of monetary base of Russian Federation in the broad definition.

The most frequent instrument of regulation a monetary stock in Russia is denomination (Osler, 2001; Pham, Lovely & Mitra, 2017). This acceptance is often used in many countries. However it is possible to the factors to carry exerting impact on a monetary stock:

- the amount of payments on an external debt and its size, - condition of a paying balance,

- stocked liquidities in the country,

- the amount of import and export transactions, etc.

Let's consider some of them. The international reserves of Russian Federation in the last 10 years increase by 2.96 times (Table 3).

Table 3: The composition of international reserves RF in the 2005 – 2016.

Million $ USD

Year

The international reserves, total

Including

the currency reserves

Including

the monetary gold the currency SDR

the reserve currency in the IMF

01.01.2005 124541 120809 120805 1 3 3732

01.01.2006 182240 175892 175690 6 196 6349

01.01.2007 303732 295567 295277 7 283 8164

01.01.2008 478762 466750 466376 1 374 12012

01.01.2009 426281 411748 410695 1 1051 14533

01.01.2010 439450 416653 405825 8901 1927 22798

01.01.2011 479379 443591 432948 8749 1893 35788

01.01.2012 498649 453952 441162 8729 4061 44697

01.01.2013 537618 486578 473110 8741 4727 51039

01.01.2014 509595 469605 456447 8762 4396 39990

01.01.2015 385460 339371 327727 8246 3398 46089

01.01.2016 368399 319836 309387 7888 2560 48563

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6 The greatest specific weight is the share of currency reserves. For 01.01.2016 they constituted the 83.46 %, on the 01.11.2016 – 81.02 %. The considerable amount occupies also the monetary gold which for the beginning of the 2016 y. constituted the 13.68 %, on the 01.11.2016 – the 16.49 %. We will do the short-term forecast of indicator on the basis of exponential function on the basis of monthly data since the 2005:

У = exp (13.195 – 0.0036)

As shows the correlation and regression analysis, the international reserves are determined by a monetary stock for the 60 %. At the same time negative correlation is observed. The dependence can be described as follows:

у = 745389 – 9,874*DM, where DM – the monetary stock.

Thus, reducing a monetary stock for the 1 billion rubles leads to growth of the international reserves for the 9,874 million $ USD.

On the condition of monetary indicators also exerts impact the size of external debt of Russian Federation (Shang

& Cui, 2014). The internal debt of Russian Federation on the 01.11.2016 constituted the 7 422 921,1 million rubles, an external debt of Russian Federation on the 01.07.2016 – 523 437 million $ USD. The external debt of Russian Federation since the 2003 increased in the 3,43 times and on the 01.01.2016 y. is – 518 508 million $ USD.

The greatest specific weight is the share of other sectors, on the 01.01.2016 – 66.57 %. The considerable specific weight occupies the debt of banks – 25.42 % and the state bodies – 5.89 %. The debt of Central Bank of Russian Federation increases in a year on the 0.36 % and constitutes 2.13 %.

2. The results of the analysis

2.1. The assessment of monetary stock of countries of CIS

The official reserves of Estonia in the 2017 tend to decline in July the 2017, and are the 286.1 million Є (Figure 5).

In assessing their structure (Figure 6), it should be noted, that the largest share is in the currency reserves (the 197.3 million Є), which is the 68.96 %. In their structure, the largest share of weight is in securities – the 194.2 million Є and the 3.2 million Є - on currency and the deposits. The significant proportion of official reserves constitute the reserve position in the IMF – the 17,48 %, SDRs – the 10.35 %, the gold – the 3.08 %, other reserves – 0.14 %. The dynamics of the official reserves structure in the 2017 have the minor modifications (Figure 7).

Figure 5: The official reserves of Estonia in the 2017.

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7 Segment 1- the currency reserves, Segment 2 – the position in IMF,

Segment 3 -SDR, Segment 4 – the gold, Segment 5 – the other reserves.

Figure 6: The structure of official reserves of Estonia in the 2017.

Figure 7: The dynamic of structure of official reserves of Estonia in the 2017.

The monetary aggregates of Estonia for the 2016-2017 of the inflows have a stable upward tendency (Figure 8, Figure 10). In June 2017, the monetary aggregates M2 amounted to the 14,157 million Є. The largest proportion is

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8 M1 – the 81.51 %, the deposits over the 2 years – the 11.56 %, the deposits over the 3 months – the 6.94 % (Figure 9, Figure 11).

Figure 8: The dynamic of monetary aggregates M3 of Estonia in the 2016 – 2017.

Figure 9: The dynamic of structure of monetary aggregates M2 of Estonia in the 2017.

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9 Figure 10: The dynamic of Estonian monetary aggregate of M2 in the 2016-2017.

Segment 1 – the monetary aggregate M1, Segment 2 – the deposits over the 2 years, Segment 3 – the deposits over the 3 months.

Figure 11: The structure of monetary aggregate of M2 of Estonian on the 30.06.2017.

The dynamic of monetary aggregates, the official reserves of Belarus is stable throughout the period of the study (Figure 12, 13). The monetary aggregate M3 in June the 2017 was the 36308.6 million rubles. The official reserves – the 2,755 million rubles.

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10 Row 1 – the monetary aggregates M0, Row 2 - the monetary aggregates M1,

Row 3 - the monetary aggregates M2, Row 4 - the monetary aggregates M3.

Figure 12: The monetary aggregates of Belarus in the 2017.

Figure 13: The official reserves of Belarus in the 2017.

1 2 3 4

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11 The dynamics of the monetary aggregates of Tajikistan in the 2017 are characterized by stability (Figure 14). The monetary aggregate M4 in June the 2017 was the 15,872 million TJS. The dynamics of the monetary aggregates will be shown on the Figure 15, 16, 17, 18.

Figure 14: The monetary aggregates of Tajikistan in the 2017.

Time Sequence Plot for TadM4

Exponential trend = exp(7,68377 + 0,0174838 t)

Ta dM 4

1.50 1.53 1.56 1.59 1.62 1.65 0

4 8 12 16 20 (X 1000)24

Figure 15: The dynamic of the monetary aggregate M4 of Tajikistan.

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Time Sequence Plot for TadM0

Quadratic trend = 1272,13 + -2,41167 t + 0,479912 t^2

Ta dM 0

actual forecast 95,0% limits

1.50 1.53 1.56 1.59 1.62 1.65 0

2 4 6 8 (X 1000)10

Time Sequence Plot for TadM1

Exponential trend = exp(7,11078 + 0,0170053 t)

T ad M 1

actual forecast 95,0% limits

1.50 1.53 1.56 1.59 1.62 1.65 0

3 6 9 12 (X 1000) 15

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Time Sequence Plot for TadM23

Exponential trend = exp(7,24795 + 0,0173473 t)

T adM 23

actual forecast 95,0% limits

1.50 1.53 1.56 1.59 1.62 1.65 0

4 8 12 (X 1000)16

Figure 18: The dynamic of the monetary aggregate M2,3 of Tajikistan.

The monetary aggregates of Kazakhstan in the 2017 also have a stable dynamic (Figure 19, 20, 21, 22). The monetary aggregate M3 in June the 2017 amounted to the 19,690,737 million KZT.

Row 1 – the monetary aggregates M0, Row 2 - the monetary aggregates M1, Row 3 - the monetary aggregates M2, Row 4 - the monetary aggregates M3.

1 2 3 4

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14 Figure 19: The monetary aggregates of Kazakhstan in the 2017.

Time Sequence Plot for M3Kaz

Quadratic trend = 868088,0 + -40512,6 t + 373,686 t^2

M 3K az

actual forecast 95,0% limits

1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65 1.70 1.75 -1

3 7 11 15 19 (X 1,E6) 23

Figure 20: The monetary aggregates M3 of Kazakhstan.

Time Sequence Plot for M0Kaz

Quadratic trend = -54744,5 + 1183,47 t + 18,3612 t^2

M 0K az

1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65 1.70 1.75 -1

3 7 11 15 19 (X 100000)23

Figure 21: The dynamic of the monetary aggregate M0 of Kazakhstan.

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Time Sequence Plot for M2Kaz

Quadratic trend = 112171,0 + -14317,0 t + 205,553 t^2

M 2K az

1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65 1.70 1.75

-1 2 5 8 11 14 (X 1,E6)17

Figure 22: The dynamic of the monetary aggregate M2 of Kazakhstan.

The dynamics of the international reserves of Kazakhstan is stable in the 2017, with a significant increase the 9.67 % in June the 2017, amounting the 2902 million $ USA (Figure 23). The highest weight is in the foreign reserves – the 60.28 % (Figure 24). The gold is 37.16 %, SDR 1.2 %, the reserve position in IMF – 0.92 %, other reserves – 0.03 %.

Figure 23: The dynamic of international reserves of Kazakhstan in the 2017.

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16 Segment 1- the currency reserves, Segment 2 - the position in IMF,

Segment 3 - SDR, Segment 4 - the gold, Segment 5 - the other reserves.

Figure 24: The structure of international reserves of Kazakhstan on the 01.06.2017.

In assessing the macroeconomic performance of Kazakhstan, it may be noted, that GDP has tended to decline since the 2013, and is the 135 million USD in the 2016 (Figure 25, 26). Kazakhstan's external debt in the first quarter of the 2017 amounted the 165501.01 million $ USD. In so doing, its structure has a stable dynamic over the 2016-2017 (Figure 27, 28). The largest volume of Kazakhstan's export-import operations since the 2000-2016 also occurs in the 2010-2013, since the 2013, has been declining. In the 2016, the exports amounted the 37301.2 million

$ USD, the imports -27869.3 million $ USD (Figure 29, 30).

The large money mass in the 2017 Kyrgyzstan is increased by the 7.21 %, which is the 11827.5 million KGS. In July 2017, it is the 174844.9 million KGS (Figure 31, 32).

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17 Figure 25: The dynamic of GDP of Kazakhstan in the 2005-2016.

Figure 26: The dynamic of GDP of Kazakhstan in the 2016-2017.

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18 Figure 27: The dynamic of external debt of Kazakhstan in the 2016-2017.

Row 1 - a short-term, Row 2 - a long-term.

Figure 28: The dynamic of structure of external debt of Kazakhstan in the 2016-2017.

1 2

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19 Row blue - the export, Row red – the import.

Figure 29: The dynamic of export, import of Kazakhstan in the 2000 -2016.

Row 1 - the export, Row 2 – the import.

Figure 30: The dynamic of export, import of Kazakhstan in the 2016 -2017.

1 2

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20 Figure 31: The large monetary mass Kyrgyzstan in the 2017.

Time Sequence Plot for DBKyr

Exponential trend = exp(11,3405 + 0,0104976 t)

D B K yr

1.50 1.52 1.54 1.56 1.58

7 10 13 16 19 (X 10000)22

Figure 32: The dynamic of monetary mass of Kyrgyzstan in the 2017.

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21 Row 1 - the gross part, Row 2 - the liquid part.

Figure 33: The international reserves Kyrgyzstan in the 2017.

The international reserves of Kyrgyzstan are stable in the 2017. In July its gross part is 2061.7 million. $ USA, the liquid part – 1974.85 million.$ USA (Figure 33, 34).

In assessing the macroeconomic indicators of Kyrgyzstan, it should be noted that the external debt is stable and in the first quarter of 2017 it amounts the 7913.7 million $ USD (Figure 35). The dynamics of exports, the imports in the 2017 are on the upward tendency. The average monthly growth of exports is the 23.73 %, and the imports the 10.77 % (Figure 36).

Time Sequence Plot for MRKyr

Quadratic trend = -90,4658 + 21,4044 t + -0,0515768 t^2

M R K yr

actual forecast 95,0% limits

0 40 80 120 160 200

-100 400 900 1400 1900 2400 2900

1 2

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22 Figure 34: The dynamic of international reserves of Kyrgyzstan.

Figure 35: The dynamic of external debt of Kyrgyzstan in the 2012 -2017.

1 2

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23 Row 1 - the export, Row 2 - the import.

Figure 36: The dynamic of export, import of Kyrgyzstan in the 2017.

2.2. The evaluation of monetary indicators of Australia and countries of Europe.

Australia's monetary mass in June the 2017 was the 2033.8 billion $ USD (Figure 37). The monetary aggregate M3 was the 2030 billion $ USD, the monetary aggregate M1 - the 356.4 billion $ USD. The average monthly growth of the monetary mass in the 2017 was the 0.46 % (Figure 38, 39, 40). The dynamics of official reserves of Australia's are relatively stable (Figure 41, 42). In July 2017, they amounted the 59.6 million $ USD. The largest share in their structure is in the currency reserves – the 86.53 %, the 6.68 % - on SDRs, the 5.46 % - on the gold (Figure 43). Analyzing the data from July the 1959, the dynamics of monetary aggregates can be presented by a polynomial of the second degree of the following types:

DM = 167.67 – 1.54*t + 0.011*t², M3 = 177.67 – 2.44*t + 0.012*t², M1 = 8.12 – 0.022*t + 0.0013*t², where DM – the monetary mass,

M3 – the monetary aggregate M3, M1 - the monetary aggregate M1.

Row 1 - the monetary aggregate M3, Row 2 - the monetary aggregate M1, Row 3 - the monetary mass.

Figure 37: The monetary aggregate of Australian in the 2017.

1 2 3

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Time Sequence Plot for DMAv

Quadratic trend = 167,67 + -1,54116 t + 0,0104907 t^2

D M A v

actual forecast 95,0% limits

1.50 1.59 1.68 1.77 1.86 1.95 1. 4 0

400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400

Figure 38: The dynamic of monetary mass of Australian.

Time Sequence Plot for AgM3

Quadratic trend = 177,45 + -2,44611 t + 0,01234 t^2

A gM 3

actual forecast 95,0% limits

1.50 1.59 1.68 1.77 1.86 1.95 1. 4 0

400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400

Figure 39: The dynamic of the monetary aggregate M3 of Australian.

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Time Sequence Plot for AgM1

Quadratic trend = 8,12431 + -0,0221847 t + 0,00131814 t^2

A gM 1

actual forecast 95,0% limits

1.50 1.59 1.68 1.77 1.86 1.95 1. 4 0

100 200 300 400

Figure 40: The dynamic of the monetary aggregate M1 of Australian.

Figure 41: The official reserves of Australian in the 2017.

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26 Figure 42: The official reserves of Australia in the 2016 – 2017.

Figure 43: The structure of official reserves of Australian in the 2017.

Sweden's official reserves have been increased by the 41.2 % since the end of the 2009. And in June the 2017 amount the 65394 million $ USD (Figure 44, Figure 45). The largest share is in the currency reserves, which account for the 86.59 %. Also included is the gold – the 7.97 %, SDRs – the 4.55%, the reserve position in IMF – the 0.88%.

1 2 3

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27 Figure 44: Sweden's official reserves in the 2017.

Figure 45: The official reserves of Sweden in the 2009 – 2017.

Danish official reserves have tended to grow since the 1999 (Figure 46). In the 2017, their average monthly growth rate is the 0.31 %, and in June the 2017, they were the 463.6 billion DKK (Figure 47).

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28 Figure 46: The reserve assets of Denmark in the 1999 – 2017.

Figure 47: The reserve assets of Denmark in the 2017.

Spain's reserves from the 2014 to the 2016 are increasing by an average of the 46.67 % according to the balance of payments. The monetary aggregate M3 also tends to grow (Figure 48, 49, 50).

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29 Figure 48: The reserves of Spain in the 2014-2016.

(The data of balance of payments)

Figure 49: The monetary aggregates M3 of Spain in the 2014 – 2016.

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30 Figure 50: The monetary aggregates M3 of Spain in the 2016 – 2017.

3. Conclusions

The dynamics of monetary stock of the leading countries-partners has the tendency to growth. The monetary aggregates of countries of Europe, Australia, CIS also has the tendency to growth (Vyborova, 2016; 2017a;

Vyborova, 2017b). In many respects, the amount of monetary stock of countries-partners is determined of external debt, GDP, the export, the import, and the international reserves (Yeyati, 2003; Wu, 2008)

In Russian Federation the monetary stock has a stable tendency to growth. The dynamics of monetary stock of Russia is determined by the historical events in many respects. The Russian Federation maintains a steady and the liquid economic position in the case of considerable amount of monetary stock and the high degree of its surplus. In most of the countries studied, the monetary supply has a significant volume exceeding the needs of the economy. If the distribution of monetary mass is adequate and there is a vertical of financial control, this will not have a negative impact on the country's economic stability and the development.

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